Super Bowl Countdown: On the Road to History

By now you think you've heard it all. You've seen the media coverage for two weeks, and you've had great in-depth analysis right here for the past five days. But you are still unsure of who is going to walk away victorious on Sunday. There is something that is holding you back from the Cardinals, but yet you aren't impressed by what Pittsburgh brings to the table either. I'm here to give you the last bit of information you need to push you one way or the other.

First, you have a lot going for you if you are the Cardinals. You have the Democrats on your side, one of, if not the best receivers in the league and his dad who is a long-time newspaper columnist, and a rejuvenated Super Bowl MVP and two-time MVP quarterback.

On the other hand, if you are the Steelers you have one of the league's best mascots, the best defense in the league this year with bone-crushing hitters, and a sound Super Bowl quarterback.

I wanted to look at previous Super Bowls and make my assessment on that, but then I realized that none of those Super Bowls might actually apply to Sunday's game. I mean, so what if I told you that teams that win 9 games or fewer are 2-2 in the Super Bowl (Cardinals: 9-7)? So what if you knew that teams with 12 wins have the most Super Bowl victories, 12 (Steelers: 12-4)?

Only three times in the Super Bowl era has a team with 3+ fewer wins than their opponent won the Super Bowl. (2007 Giants: 10-6 def. 16-0 Patriots; 2001 Patriots: 11-5 def. 14-2 Rams; 1957 Packers: 9-4-1 def. 13-1 Raiders).

You already know that the Steelers outscored their opponents by almost 8 points this season. Would you change your mind if I told you that the average margin of victory in the Super Bowl is over 15 points? But, in the past five years alone the Super Bowl winner has won by just over 6 points a game.

The Steelers have played in six Super Bowls, two of those were in Florida, much like this year. Pittsburgh is 2-0 when the Big Game is played in the Sunshine State and in their six Super Bowl games, they outscore their opponents by five points a game. Too irrelevant still?

What if we looked at the Steelers most recent Super Bowl victory. Three years ago the Steelers beat the Seahawks 21-10. Ben Roethlisberger had his worst game....ever. In 72 regular season games, and nine playoff games. Big Ben had his worst performance to date. That day in Detroit, Roethlisberger went 9-21, 123 yards, 0 TD, 2 INTs and a QB rating of 22.6. Things got so bad that the Steelers went to a different quarterback to throw the touchdowns that game as Antwaan Randle El completed a 43 yard pass to Hines Ward to seal the game. Which way are you leaning now?

Meanwhile, how about the last two Super Bowls that Kurt Warner has been in? Well he only set the record for most passing yards in a single Super Bowl and lead his team to a fourth quarter comeback, and saw his team give up a fourth quarter lead two years later.

You can't lose two of your last three games going into the playoffs and expect to be hot enough to win the Super Bowl much like the Cardinals are trying to do this year. Or you can't have the same amount or more turnovers on offense than your defense creates throughout the season and expect to win. Unless of course, you are last year's Giants team. Am I making sense yet?

I've always lived by numbers and logic. They can tell any story you want them to tell you. Stats are mostly of coincidence, unless you make them of value. I surround myself with printed sheets of Super Bowl history and pen markings. Which stats mean the most in this game? I'll give you a magic # for this game. Let's say it is '2'.

This year, Arizona is just 3-7 when committing 2 or more turnovers on offense. Pittsburgh is 2-4 when their offense coughs it up 2 or more times. The Cardinals are 7-0 when their team forces 2 or more turnovers while the Steelers are 8-1 in the regular season when they force the other team to give it up two or more times. So you look at that and say that the first team to give up 2 turnovers will lose the game.

I have to take the league's best defense in this situation. The Steelers will control the clock with the run while Warner will be forced to air it out more often. The problem is though, can the Steelers keep the Cardinals from the one or two big scoring plays? So how about this.

Prediction: A game decided by Jeff Reed missing a last-second field goal to win the game, thus sending it into overtime. In overtime, Kurt Warner throws an interception which is returned for a touchdown and a 26-20 Steelers victory.

How about that one for the stats book?

First to Third: D'Backs Decorate Rotation with Garland

Here's a move that I think could go down as one of the top under-the-radar moves of this off-season: this week, the Diamondbacks signed Jon Garland.

I've mentioned Garland before, but here's a guy who will slide into the #3 spot in Arizona's rotation behind Brandon Webb and Dan Haren that was a Cy Young candidate in 2005, helping the White Sox win the World Series. First off, let me just say that the NL West is a very winnable division and I think this move gives the division to Arizona, providing they can find an offense somewhere. Pitching wins championships and when you can pencil a former 18-game winner that doesn't walk a ton of guys into your rotation behind two perennial Cy Young candidates, you're in good shape. Not to mention, most pitchers not named Zito do better in the National League than in the American League, so Garland's high ERA is bound to drop.

If you're thinking fantasy, Garland would be a great late-round pickup that will be good for at least 13 wins if Arizona finds ways to score - but that's a big IF right now. What I don't like about Garland is that he gives up too many hits, but again, the move to the NL should shrink his higher numbers from batters against, making him a nice sleeper.

Super Bowl Countdown: On Their Road to Tampa...Cardinals Have Little Shot at Victory

[Editor's Note: Today's SportsJudge Super Bowl preview comes from Marc Edelman, founder and CEO of SportsJudge.com -- fantasy sports dispute resolution. Be sure to check back tomorrow at 1pm ET for our final in-depth look at the Big Game from Chris Carmona. Also, make sure to join the all-new Sports Judge blog feed.]

I was looking forward to writing this column all week. My plan was to tell the world exactly how the underdog Arizona Cardinals would pull off a mighty upset against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Sunday's Super Bowl XLIII. I had even scribbled a few notes to myself about just how they would do it.

Then, I sat down at my computer and began typing. However, there was just one problem.

I was completely out of my mind.

Lets face it, the Arizona Cardinals are not a bad football team. They finished their season 9-7. However, the Steelers have been absolutely dominant. They marched into the Super Bowl with a regular-season record of 12-4.

Over the course of the 16 game regular season, the Steelers cumulatively outscored their opponents by a count of 347-223. This translates to an average margin of victory of more than a touchdown and extra point. The Cardinals, on the other hand, outscored their opponents this season by just one measly point, 427-426.

If you look at their common opponents, these differences stand out even more. The Steelers and Cardinals faced five common foes: Dallas, the New York Giants, New England, Washington and Philadelphia. The Steelers went 3-2 in those games. They lost to the Giants and Philadelphia, while beating Washington, Dallas and New England. The Cardinals meanwhile went 1-4. They beat Dallas, but lost to everybody else -- including to New England by a score of 47-7. (Although the Cardinals beat the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, the Eagles beat them in Week 13, 48-20).

It is possible that the Cardinals are a better team now then they were at the start of the year, as they have won three straight in the playoffs. However, a look at their week-by-week performance does not seem to support that argument. In terms of wins and losses, the Cardinals began the year 7-3. They finished 2-4. Indeed, the Cardinals' only two wins over the final six weeks of the regular season came against NFL's doormats, St. Louis (2-14) and Seattle (4-12).

By contrast, it is the Steelers that have been on the great second-half role. Including the playoffs, Pittsburgh has won eight of their past nine games. This streak includes both wins at home and on the road against the Baltimore Ravens (11-5), as well as a pair of wins over the AFC West champion San Diego Chargers (8-8). To use BCS language, there's no doubt the Steelers had not only the better record in the second half of the season, but also the better "strength of schedule."

Finally, no even-handed analysis would be complete without looking at the regular-season injury factor. In fairness to Arizona, the Cardinals played large chunks of the season without their no. 2 wide receiver Anquan Boldin. Boldin missed Arizona's week 5 and 6 games against Buffalo and Dallas, as well week 16 and 17 games against New England and Seattle.

However, even with that said, the Cardinals managed to go 3-1 in their four games without Boldin. Indeed, they had a better winning percentage without Boldin than with him. So, we can't really call Boldin's return the difference maker that puts Arizona over the top.

On the other hand, the Steelers this season were forced to play without their star running back, Willie Parker, for parts of three of their four losses (this includes the game against Philadelphia where Parker got hurt). With a healthy Parker, the only team to get in the Steelers' way in 2008-09 was the Tennessee Titans--a well-rounded team that went 13-3. The Titans probably were the best team in the NFL this season. However, the they were upset in their first round playoff game by the Baltimore Ravens. Then, the following week, the Steelers defeated a solid Ravens team for the third consecutive time this NFL year.

So when it comes down to it, the romantic in me really wanted to tell the world why the Cardinals are going to win their first-ever Super Bowl. However, sounder judgment prevented me from doing so.

My prediction: Kurt Warner displays his usual strong leadership, and the three-headed monster of Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston and Boldin each play up to their abilities. However, in the end, the Steelers are just the better team.

Verdict: The City of Pittsburgh will celebrate it's sixth Super Bowl victory, this time by the final score of 23-17.

And Now You Know!: The Longest NFL Drought

Sunday's big game will feature a hard hitting action against two teams that could care less about each other. The Steelers are going to their 7th Super Bowl while the Cardinals are making their first appearance in the Super Bowl. Chances are that you will see Ryan Clark try and decapitate someone who tries to cross the middle and you may see Larry Fitzgerald make a spectacular catch and celebrate in the endzone, but did you know that during the 1944 NFL season, these two teams were closer than you'd think and actually helping each other.

Much like MLB, the NFL was experiencing a loss of players due to World War II. For the second straight season the Pittsburgh Steelers were forced to merge teams with another team in order to keep operations going, or else suspend the team for a season. It just so happened that in 1944 the Steelers teamed up with the Chicago Cardinals, who were coming off an an 0-10 season. The two teams merged together to become the "Card-Pitts" (pronounced Carpets). As witty as it may sound, their play on the field was less entertaining and more embarrassing.

The team started off with little hope, as expected, and things only got worse when their starting quarterback was drafted to the Army by week two. Then came the drama of player fines for insubordination and player strikes, which was followed by an on the field brawl. It was a bad sports movie in real life. It was a mix of some of the worst football movies of all time. It was "The Longest Yard" but outside of prison. "The Replacements", but without the Keanu Reeves, and "Leatherheads", without the star college quarterback. It was sad to say the least.

This isn't what Pittsburgh owner, Art Rooney had in mind when he agreed to join up with the lowly team from Chicago, but give the old man credit, he did join his team out on the field during the Brawl.

The owner's vigor didn't spark his team as they went 0-10 that year and combine them with the 0-10 Brooklyn Tigers it was quite possibly the worst season ever in the NFL. In the Card-Pitts 10 games that year they scored over 7 points just three times, and were outscored that year 328-108. In four of their games they didn't score until the fourth quarter when all the scrubs were in although let it be noted though that the Card-Pitts usually controlled the ball for longer than their opponents, but seemingly got nowhere.

The team went through five different quarterbacks that year, including a Punter, a halfback, and a defensive end. Only two players from this 1944 team made it to 1947 where both the Cardinals and Steelers made the playoffs. In fact the Cardinals won the Championship in 1947, also the last time the they had ever won a Championship as they look to end a 61 year drought this Sunday.

So as these two teams get together to do battle on Sunday, just remember the days when they were on the field together battling, literally, on the same team.

And Now You Know! (And Knowing is Half the Battle)

Super Bowl Countdown: On the Road to Tampa

[Editor's Note: With the Super Bowl only a few days away, SportsJudge continues its daily coverage of the big game with a preview from Jordan Zucker of Girls Guide to Fantasy Football. Be sure to check back every day this week at 1pm for different perspectives from the SportsJudge community. Be sure to check out Mike Colligan's 31-17 Steelers prediction, Matt Cohen's 31-28 Cardinals prediction, and Joe Romano's 27-17 Steelers prediction if you haven't already.]

I feel I have better claim to call myself a sports advocate, reporter, or writer than a sports expert. But I’ll break down the road to the Su Pa Bo by position and notes from my all girls League Home Sauce draft.

QB: Warner vs. Roethlisberger – advantage Cardinals

Warner was drafted in the 11th round as a back up to Carson Palmer (her proudest draft move). Roethlisberger went at the beginning of round 3, the 5th QB to go.

RB1: Edge vs. Fast Willie – advantage Steelers

In our draft, Willie Parker was solely responsible for a bunch of hangovers. We have a rule that if you try to draft a player already taken, you have to do a tequila shot. About half of the girls went for Willie after he was already on the board. In their defense, Willie went in the first round, and he was ranked and predicted to go much later, so when the girls were expecting to hear his name called they had forgotten that he was long gone. (cross him off next time!!) “Is Willie Parker really good looking?” asked Timekeeper Mitch? “Why are all of the girls trying to draft him?!?!”
Here’s why: Willie is a stud. Yes, he was overworked last year. Yes, he’s liable to be out with injuries, but he can go big.

RB2: Hightower vs. Moore – advantage Cardinals

Neither player was drafted (both picked up off the waiver wire). Hightower eeks the win due to the goal line carries and hence double the TDs.

WR1: Fitzgerald vs. Ward – advantage Cardinals

Duh. No offense Hines, but Larry is the best, especially for a pasty Irish guy… oh, wait. If it were a smiling contest Hines would win. Larry was drafted in the 3rd round, the 7th WR to go. Hines went in the 9th round, so both produced great value for their draft positions.

WR2: Boldin vs. Holmes – advantage Cardinals

But both have a great ass. Anquan went in the 5th and Santonio went in the 3rd (to a huge Steelers fan though…)

TE: Pope vs. Miller – advantage Steelers

Not the best comparison since the Cardinals rarely target the TE (Who would need to with Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Breaston on the team?) Miller was drafted in the 7th round, 7th TE on the board.

K: Rackers vs. Reed – wash

I mean really.
Both went in the 2nd round of our draft. Kidding. Rackers went in the last round and Reed was picked up off the wire early in season.

D/ST: Cardinals vs. Steelers – advantage Steelers
This warrants an explanation like the WR category did.

Experience – advantage Steelers

It’s the Cardinals first time to the Su Pa Bo ever, while the Steelers have been 6 times before, only losing one of them. They are tied for most wins (5) with the Cowboys and 49’ers.
Of course this gives the under-dog advantage to the Cardinals.
Both team's fans and uniforms are fine (it’s not like Oakland or Cincinnati is playing… coincidence?)

Conclusion: I know it is said that “Defenses win championships.” Someone should have told that to the Bears two years ago when they lost to the Colts. I’m going with the Cardinals.

Prediction: AZ 24 – PIT 20
Breakdown:
AZ – Fitzgerald TD, Boldin TD, Hightower TD, Rackers FG
PIT – Parker TD, Reed FG, Holmes TD, Reed FG

The Puck Stops Here: Kovalev Shines

I want to begin by congratulating the Puck Monkeys. On Monday night, my adult league team won the Blade Runners Adult League Ice Hockey Championship. After being shut down and frustrated by the trap in game one, we came back and gave the Thrashers a bit of their own medicine. We won games two and three by scoring dirty goals and trapping them into submission, winning game three 3-1. A special shout-out goes to Ralph, our goalie, for standing on his head at times. This was a championship only the New Jersey Devils could be proud of.

While on the subject of adult hockey, I hope you got to watch the All-Star Game on Sunday evening. While the game showcased some spectacular offense, this was nothing more than an adult league game with superstar talent. I would also like to thank Alexei Kovalev for calling me out by winning MVP after I went on at length about how he didn’t deserve to be there. If anyone’s favorite team or player needs a change of fortune, let me know, I’ll criticize them and that should solve all the problems. Enough about adult hockey, let’s discuss fantasy.

I feel as though I need to discuss Rick Nash. No, he won’t be available on your waiver wire, he isn’t really a buy low candidate, but, more importantly, he isn’t a sell candidate. For weeks I was talking a friend off the Nash trade ledge, telling him to come back inside and we’ll talk about it. Calmer heads prevailed and Nash rewarded him with a hat trick last night. Look, Nash doesn’t carry the name value of a player like Kovalchuk, but he is outperforming Kovalchuk big time. Sure, Nash has three less points, but he is also a plus 12 compared to Kovalchuk’s minus ten. I keep seeing Nash traded for flashes in the pan like Scott Hartnell, Patrick Sharp and Michael Cammalleri. Don’t do it, Nash is the type of consistent, across the board player that you need to win a championship.

Another player being dealt far too often and for far too little in return is Patrick Kane. Kane is a primo buy low candidate. If you can get him, do it. If you have him, hold him or make sure you are getting great value in return. I get it, he has one assist over his past 11 games, but don’t forget about his 41 points in his other 32 games. He is in a slump. Don’t compound the problem by taking less value. I would much rather have Kane than the aforementioned Kovaluchuk. In one league, Kane was just traded for Dustin Brown. Really, Dustin Brown? Don’t make the same mistake, hold him if you got him, go get him if you don’t.

Speaking of Dustin Brown, while he certainly doesn’t have even close to as much value as Kane, he is worth owning. Brown is currently available in about 30-40% of leagues, but he shouldn’t be. Brown has seven points in his past seven games, he can help out with PIM and he takes plenty of shots, including an 11-shot game. Shots are like touches in football. In football, if you don’t touch the ball you can’t get yards or score. In hockey, it is practically impossible to score without shooting the puck. Brown is still pretty young, but has a good hockey pedigree. He should be pretty serviceable for the rest of the season. I would add him rather than taking a wait and see approach.

Erik Cole hasn’t met preseason expectations, but he currently has three things going for him. Both he and Edmonton have been playing pretty good hockey recently, he can help out in PIM, and he is eligible at both left and right wing. The importance of the final characteristic can’t be overstated. Having a player you can plug in at either wing is extremely valuable. It is enough to turn an average player into an above average player for fantasy purposes. His current stats are slightly inflated due to a recent hat trick, but there are plenty of worse options out there. Keep an eye on Cole, or if you need help at wing, grab him.

If you need help with defensemen, look no further than Cory Murphy. Murphy is a power play specialist, but he is also getting very solid ice-time at even strength. Since being claimed off of waivers by Tampa Bay, Murphy has four points in three games. While Tampa Bay isn’t a good hockey team, it is more talented offensively than Florida and should provide more opportunities for Murphy. Murphy won’t help you with PIM or +/-, but he should produce enough offense to be a good fourth defenseman.

I mentioned Claude Giroux as a preseason sleeper. That didn’t work out very well, but he has been called up and has given Philadelphia a point in each of his last two games. Wait and see on Giroux, but make sure he is at least on your radar...Keep an eye on Bobby Ryan’s ice-time when Teemu Selanne returns in a week or two. Ryan has performed very well in Selanne’s role, but what will happen with Teemu back in the lineup? The answer will determine if Ryan should still be owned...Clemmensen owners, keep an eye on Martin Brodeur. He has been determined to return before the end of the season and it looks like he will. Nothing would kill you more than to see Brodeur steal fantasy playoff starts from Clemmensen.

As always, please feel free to leave comments or questions. Until next week, The Puck Stops Here.

The Mulligan: Time to Get Rowdy

This week’s tournament is the FBR Open in Scottsdale, Arizona, played at TPC Scottsdale. This course boasts one of the most beautiful holes in all of golf. Every year I look forward to this tournament just to see the beauty that is Hole 16. Set deep within the McDowell Mountains as they collide with the Sonoran Desert, the landscape is picturesque to say the least. Words don’t do it justice. See for yourself here.

However, the natural beauty is not why I consider Hole 16 one of the most beautiful holes in all of golf. I find beauty in the energy of the fans that surround the playing area. I still have hopes that one day a real-life Happy Gilmore will grace my television screen and beat up a celebrity during a Pro-Am as I watch live. This might just happen on Hole 16. With nearly 20,000 fans surrounding the hole, it is the PGA’s noisiest and rowdiest hole on tour. The fans are known to drink a little too much (especially on Sunday) and their misadventures have been well documented.

I can imagine nothing that would be more beautiful than to look over and see a guy with a nail in his head wearing a shirt that says “Guns don’t kill people, I kill people.” If/When I see this, I will not hesitate to call Hole 16 THE most beautiful hole in all of golf.

So that brings me to my picks for this week. I think the player that best fits into this atmosphere and will probably even feed off of the fan energy is one of my favorites: Jason Gore. Look for him to have a good weekend.

My pick to win this week is J.B. Holmes. He has won this tournament 2 of the last 3 years, and he is a young gun who really feeds off the Scottsdale energy as well.

Also, watch out for Geoff Ogilvy. I think Ogilvy is going to have a career year in 2009 and this weekend should be no exception.

Super Bowl Countdown: On the Road to Tampa

[Editor's Note: With the Super Bowl only a few days away, SportsJudge continues it's daily coverage of the big game with a preview from Joe Romano, Editor-in-Chief of the SportsJudge Blog. Be sure to check back every day this week at 1pm for different perspectives from the SportsJudge community. Be sure to check out Mike Colligan's 31-17 Steelers prediction and Matt Cohen's 31-28 Cardinals prediction if you haven't already.]

Two teams playing out of two different cities will battle for league supremacy on Sunday, but this game will revolve around one, Pittsburgh. It is the home of the Terrible Towel, Primanti Bros., and Iron City Beer. It is where Ken Whisenhunt made his name, Larry Fitzgerald shined in college, and Steve Breaston was born and raised. However, the Woodland Hills product could be the key to the game for the Cardinals.

You have all heard about how great the Steelers’ defense is, and it really is great. We all know James Harrison can pressure the QB, Polamalu is arguably the best safety in the game, and Casey Hampton is ginormous, but what many may find out is how slow Deshea Townsend is. Unfortunately for the Steelers, he will draw coverage duty on the speedy Breaston in man coverage. This could be the match-up that kills the Steelers.

The Steelers have two solid corners in Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden. Ike is a pure coverage guy and McFadden is a physical corner who will make Boldin work to get off the line, but Townsend as the nickel back against Breaston has to keep Dick Lebeau up at night. The key will be forcing third and long, allowing the Steelers to zone-blitz the Cardinals and giving support over top against Zona’s supremely talented trio of receivers. Pounding the Cardinals' receivers at the line won't hurt either. I am sure the Steelers won’t forget how Breaston burned them for a TD last year.

There are two keys to the game when the Steelers have the ball: locate Adrian Wilson and, more importantly, run the ball. Earlier this week, Mike Colligan called Adrian Wilson the best safety in the game. I won’t go that far, but he is the third best safety behind Polamalu and Reed and is a game changer. Roethlisberger must account for Wilson every play. If Roethlisberger is careless, Wilson could come up with a game changing interception or land a hit that will give Steelers’ receivers alligator arms.

The biggest key to the game will be the Steelers ground attack. The Steelers have made a name for themselves by running teams into submission and will need to do it again to beat Arizona. By successfully running the ball, the Steelers keep the dangerous Cardinals’ passing attack off the field. Arizona’s glaring weakness is in their run-stopping linebacker corp. Some will point to their success against the run so far in the playoffs, but that is supremely attributable to teams playing from behind. Dansby is a very good pass rusher, but overall, the linebacker corps is weak against the run.

By exploiting the run, the Steelers will also open up Heath Miller. Keeping the Cardinals thinking run first should open up some seams and zone pockets for Miller to exploit. We all saw Celek find great success for Philly, and he isn’t half the player that Heath is. However, it will be tough to establish Heath without the run. Again, the key for the Steelers offense will be to run the ball.

This game should be far closer and more entertaining than most are claiming it will be. Each team has super stars on each side of the ball, and we have a hard-hitting defense against an electrifying offense. In the end, defense wins championships.

Prediction: The Steelers return to Pittsburgh with their record setting sixth Super Bowl, 27-17.

Ides of March: What Happened to the SEC?

The SEC, which saw six teams get into the NCAA tournament last year, is having a down year, there's little doubt about that. The perception of this fact is due largely in part to at one point not having a team in the Top 25 for a short span. The reason why the SEC looks so different this year is because it doesn’t have a dominant team in the Top 10 (teams like the Tennessees, Floridas and Kentuckys of the past). That situation is further exacerbated by the depth and quality of the Big East, ACC, Big 10, and even the Big 12. While there is no dominant team on the national level, the SEC is not having an awful year. It’s not having a great year either, or even a good year, but we can expect anywhere from 3-5 teams to get into the tournament depending on how the rest of conference play goes (but most likely just 3 teams). Considering the prominence of the Big East, ACC, and Big 10 this year, who combined could take up 21 at-large bids, 3-5 bids is not bad at all for a conference that barely has Top 25 recognition, never mind a conference without a top tier powerhouse. Now let's take a look at the six SEC teams making a run at a tournament bid:

In

Kentucky 16-5 (5-1)
In Billy Gillispie’s second year as head coach, Kentucky struggled to an 0-2 start after losses against VMI and North Carolina. The Wildcats had a respectable non-conference schedule that included a win at West Virginia, and tough losses against Miami (FL) and a heartbreaking 3-point loss at Louisville, a team that is tearing through its Big East schedule. The emergence of Jodie Meeks, who is showing himself to be one of the nation’s top scorers, and Patrick Patterson, who is playing through a badly bruised finger and still averaging 18 points and 9 rebounds, had Kentucky undefeated (until a bad loss last night at Ole Miss, where Meeks shot 4-15, after starting 0-9) in conference play and firmly in the tournament come March.

Florida 17-3 (4-1)
The Gators’ lone hiccups this year have come at Syracuse, in a 2 point loss at Florida St. and a 1 point loss at South Carolina. Billy Donovan, now a year and a half removed from his four day stint with the Magic, had led his team to 10 straight wins before losing to South Carolina (by the way, if you didn’t see the incredibly way that game ended, check it out here). The team quickly rebounded from that loss in Columbia by throttling Vanderbilt by 25 and presumably getting back on track. Led by Nick Calathes’ 17 points a game, Florida looks to contend for the top spot in the SEC East with Kentucky. With a 1-2 record against the RPI Top 25 that includes those losses at formidable opponents like Syracuse and Florida St., Florida will be in good shape come March.

Tennessee 12-6 (3-1)
Tennessee has been the Jekyll and Hyde team in the SEC this season. The Volunteers are 3-1 against the RPI Top 25, and then 0-4 against the RPI 26-50. They still have the strongest RPI of any SEC team (26) and have faced the toughest non-conference schedule of any team I’ve seen so far this year. Their non-conference schedule included wins against two upper-echelon Big East teams in Georgetown and Marquette, and losses to Gonzaga (twice), at Kansas, and most recently a tough two point loss to Memphis. Their lone loss in conference play came from their inability to stop Kentucky’s Jodie Meeks, who put up 54 points against them. The only question with Tennessee is if they will take care of business in SEC conference play. A good indication of that will come when they face a 15-4 (3-1), but mostly unproven LSU squad tonight.

Hovering Near the Bubble

LSU 15-4 (3-1)
Take a look at LSU’s non-conference schedule and you’ll find more cupcakes than at a 5-year-old’s birthday party. They hold an unimpressive 0-3 record against the RPI Top 50 and have only faced one ranked team, losing at home to Xavier on Saturday. That said, the Tigers are still in the drivers seat for a potential fourth SEC tournament spot, meaning that they can control their own destiny. They have wins over both South Carolina and Mississippi St. to their advantage and have yet to face Tennessee (which they do tonight), Kentucky, and Florida, where wins could give them a huge boost in the eyes of the committee.

South Carolina 14-4 (3-2)
The Gamecocks are led by the backcourt duo of Devan Downey and Zam Frederick. They have a fairly unimpressive non-conference schedule, where they lost to Clemson but did win at Baylor. South Carolina came up with a big win over Florida on an amazing last second dunk by Frederick, but were also trounced by LSU prior to that. They are 1-1 against the RPI Top 25 and have the benefit of still playing Kentucky twice, and Florida and Tennessee once each before the end of the regular season. With the loss to LSU, South Carolina will need at least a 2-2 record in those four games, plus they are faced with the potential of a must-win game at Mississippi St. on February 18.

Mississippi St. 14-6 (4-1)
While the Mississippi St. non-conference schedule was not as easy as South Carolina's and LSU's, they did lose to a handful of seemingly non-tournament teams including Cincinnati, San Diego, Texas Tech, UNC Charlotte, and Washington State. They still manage to sit atop the SEC West by taking care of the likes of Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Alabama, but still have to travel to Tennessee and Kentucky. A February 11 matchup with LSU could make things interesting, or seal their fate, when it comes to edging out the Tigers for the fourth conference at-large bid, if the SEC is to get one.


The SEC finds itself in unknown waters. The conference is not nearly as impressive as it has been in years past. Outside of Jodie Meeks, who really just emerged almost out of nowhere after a mediocre Freshman year and an injury plagued Sophomore season, there are few nationally recognized stars in the conference. They sit sixth in conference RPI, the worst of the power conferences, edging out the Mountain West by a measly .005. Look for three teams to get in the tournament, but I’m not convinced that any team outside of the Meeks-Patterson duo at Kentucky is really capable of making a dent in March. If you’re an SEC fan I’d suggest you look forward more to this and this than to this.

This Week's Notable Performers

The 'Gody v. Griffin Battle - Luke Harangody and Blake Griffin could both be in this space every week, but that's just boring. So instead of being compared to the rest of college basketball, they'll go head to head every week and only one will appear in this slot. This week?
Griffin - In three games this week, Griffin averaged 24 points and 18 rebounds. Harangody only chimes in with 26.5 points and 16 rebounds against two measly top ten teams. Griffin gets the nod with Oklahoma's 3-0 record, sorry that Kyle McAlarney hasn't shown up in a while there Luke.

Jordan Hill (Arizona) - Hill had 30 points and 18 rebounds in an overtime win over Houston on Saturday. Spurred by teammate Chase Budinger getting his face stomped on, Hill led the Wildcats, who came back from 8 points down with under two minutes remaining to force the extra period.
Derrick Brown (Xavier) - Xavier came out of Baton Rouge with a solid win over an LSU squad that had yet to lose at home. Brown led the way with 22 points and 9 rebounds, including an efficient 7-11 from the field and 3-4 from beyond the arc.
Da’Sean Butler (West Virginia) - His 27 points and 8 boards helped take down Georgetown and give the Mountaineers a big road win in the Big East.

Window Shopping: Luck of the Irish?

We've all been there before. That moment when you start to panic because you really need to find that perfect gift for the die-hard Lakers fan in your life. Have no fear, the NBA Store has come to the rescue. Behold, this wonderful Lakers t-shirt pictured above. Don't take my word for it...according to the NBA Store website:

You'll love this adidas Originals Los Angeles Lakers super-soft, short-sleeve t-shirt. The high-quality cotton shirt is decorated in St. Patrick's Day colors and designed with the distressed team logo screen-printed on the chest for a vintage look.

I mean with Spring and warm weather approaching, who wouldn't want to show off a snazzy, "super-soft" t-shirt of their favorite team in the colors of their BIGGEST RIVAL! It's hard to imagine how this idea made it onto the screen-printer. Unfortunately, if this shirt doesn't tickle your fancy, you still need to wait a few months for the white Boston Red Sox shirt with navy pinstripes and the scarlet and gray University of Michigan shirts.

Super Bowl Countdown: On the Road to Tampa

[Editor's Note: With the Super Bowl only a few days away, SportsJudge continues it's daily coverage of the big game with a preview from Matt Cohen, Senior Deputy Justice of SportsJudge.com. Don't forget to check out yesterday's first preview from Mike Colligan if you haven't already and be sure to stay tuned for different perspectives on Super Sunday every day this week at 1pm.]

Super Bowl XLIII is a tale of two franchises that couldn't be more different from each other. On the one hand you have the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh is trying to become the first team in NFL History to win 6 Super Bowls, in this, their 7th Super Bowl appearance. They have one of the best owners in all of sports in the Rooney's, and entered this season just as they have for most of the previous 15 years, as one of the favorites to win the AFC Championship. The Arizona Cardinals on the other hand have not won 10 games in a season since 1976 (By comparison the Steelers have won at least 10 games 14 times since 1976), and had their first winning season since 1998. The Cardinals have one of the worst and cheapest owners in all of sports in the Bidwell's, and entered the season just as they always do, as huge underdogs to make any kind of run to the Super Bowl.

The Steelers have the league's #1-ranked defense and it is this defense that will have to win the game for them. Pittsburgh has the best safety (Troy Polamalu) and the best LB (James Harrison) in the league. Harrison was not only the 2008 Defensive Player of the Year (and top fantasy defensive player leading my team into the postseason!!!), but he is the biggest game-changer on either side of the field in this Super Bowl. Harrison had 16 sacks and 7 forced fumbles during the regular season and in order for Pittsburgh to win he will have to get to the QB. By getting pressure on Warner (something the Eagles had a lot of trouble with), Harrison will go a long way towards stopping Arizona's #1-ranked Passing Offense. If this pressure leads to a few turnovers for the Pittsburgh defense, it could lead to an easy day for the Steelers. On offense, Big Ben will do what he always does; he won't be flashy but he will make the necessary plays to have Pittsburgh in position to win the game.

Speaking of turnovers, it's the Arizona defense which has been leading the league throughout the postseason with 11 turnovers in their 3 playoff games. Clancy Pendergast's crew has been on an incredible role this postseason. Arizona has several big name players on defense including Carlos Dansby, Adrian Wilson, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie; but as a whole the defense was inconsistent throughout the regular season. Will the defense of the past 3 games show up in the Super Bowl or will the defense revert back to it's regular season form? Personally, I think it is more likely that it'll be somewhere in the middle. The defense has clearly improved but they can't expect to get the same amount of turnovers they have been getting over the previous 3 postseason games, and as a result the only way Arizona is winning is if Kurt Warner and the offense outplays that vaunted Pittsburgh defense.

Everyone talks about the 2 big WRs in Arizona, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, but to me the two players to look out for if Arizona is going to win this game are Steve Breaston, who had 77 Catches 1,006 Yards 3 TD in the 2008 Regular Season (7 Catches for 70 Yards in the Postseason) and Jerheme Urban, who had 34 Catches 448 Yards 4 TD (Only 5 Catches for 30 Yards in the Postseason). Urban has had his best games when going against the best passing defenses. Against the Giants he caught 5 catches for 69 yards and against the Vikings he caught 3 catches for 82 yards and 1 TD. These defenses, much like the Pittsburgh defense will be able to do, can somewhat contain the big 3 WRs, leaving Urban open with a chance to move the ball down the field.

Finally a quick mention of the coaches. While Mike Tomlin is an excellent coach, but Ken Whisenhunt has proven himself to be one of the smartest coaches in the league time and time again. I'm still amazed at his attempt for a free kick in the regular season. As a result, I don't see any Charger or Falcon-like letdown where they are just happy to be in the Super Bowl. Whisenhunt is going to have his team ready to show the Steelers that they made a mistake in passing on him for head coach, and more importantly will have his team in position to win the championship.

This is a strange game for me. I usually always root for Pittsburgh if its an AFC game. I really like Heinz Field, I like their fans, I like the terrible towel, I like their owner, and I like Steely McBeam (best mascot in the NFL!). That being said however, I really like Kurt Warner from his time on the Giants, he was very good with Eli and I would be happy to see him win another championship. At 45-1 odds going into the season to win the championship and still 40-1 odds to win the championship entering the playoffs, nobody expected the Cardinals to have any chance at winning it all this year, but they will continue to surprise.

Prediction: I just have a strange feeling that the Cards are going to win and Kurt Warner is going to win another MVP. Cardinals 31 - Steelers 28.

The Buzz Around The Bullpen: Fantasy Positional Preview: Outfielders

Welcome back to the first edition of the “Buzz Around the Bullpen” for the 2009 Major League Baseball season. The offseason was certainly interesting with trades, free-agent signings, and the beginning of the Yankees’ conquest to take over the world. Although the first pitch of the season will not be thrown for another two months, it’s never too soon to start studying for your upcoming fantasy draft.

With that being said, over the course of the next two months, my weekly article will consist of a position by position analysis that will leave you more than prepared for your draft day. In order to help you out on draft day, I will present the players to you in three separate tiers. The first tier will consist of players that you can build your championship team around. The second tier will be made up of players who you can rely on but won’t be the centerpiece to your squad. The third tier of players will be mostly role players who will essentially fill a positional need on your team.

For right now, let’s get started by taking a look at the Outfielders.

Studs

1. Grady Sizemore (CLE): In terms of fantasy value, I’m not sure anyone else can compare with the full package that Grady brings to the table. Last year Grady combined his 33 homeruns with 38 stolen bases. While his critics will harp on the fact he’s never hit .300, I challenge you to find a more complete fantasy outfielder. In 2009, he’ll have a healthier supporting cast and he’ll still only be 26 years-old. I look for Grady to put up at least comparable numbers to last year…and I’d love those numbers on my team.

2. Josh Hamilton (TEX): If you read any of my articles from last year, you already know about my “bromance” with Josh Hamilton. Last year, Hamilton finished hitting .302 with 32 homeruns and 130 RBIs. With one more year of hitting MLB pitching, I look for even better numbers this year.

3. Ryan Braun (MIL): The thought coming into ’08 was that Braun could not match his unreal rookie numbers. Unfortunately for National League pitchers, he did a pretty good job of doing just that. You could argue that there was a drop-off last year because he was able to put up those similar numbers in ’07 in 160 fewer at-bats. Do yourself a favor…don’t make that argument outside the confines of your own home. Let’s face it, this guy will be a 35 HR, 100 RBI guy for the next 7 years.

4. Carlos Quentin (CHW): Quentin broke onto the scene in ’08 in a big way. Before being injured in early September, Quentin managed to hit 36 homeruns in only 480 at-bats. Rare for such a young power hitter, Quentin has shown the ability to get on base and I look for his approach at the plate only to improve as he gets more MLB at-bats.

5. Carlos Beltran (NYM): I consider the 32 year-old version of Beltran as “Grady Sizemore Light.” While he’ll never lead the league in homeruns or stolen bases, he does a little bit of everything. It will be interesting to see how Beltran adjusts to a new ballpark which is rumored to be more hitter friendly than Shea Stadium. Beltran’s career is definitely on the downturn but he is still a fantasy stud that puts up consistent numbers.

6. Alfonso Soriano (CHC): Soriano is one of those guys that will drive you crazy as an owner. Just as you’re ready to pull the trigger on a trade to get rid of him, he’ll hit five homeruns in three days. Regardless of when he does it, if you hang on to him for the entire season, you’re almost guaranteed stud fantasy numbers. Since 2002 the fewest number of homeruns he has hit is 28. In addition to his power potential, he has stolen at least 18 bases over the past 8 seasons. In five of those eight seasons he’s stolen 30 or more bases. As much as he’ll drive you crazy, you can’t argue with his ability to put up huge fantasy numbers.

7. B.J. Upton (TB): If you’re worried about a guy coming off of shoulder problems, take a look at Carlos Quentin in ’08. I’m pretty sure that went well for him. Before tearing his labrum in his left shoulder, Upton was expected to break-out in ’08. Instead he finished with only 9 homeruns and 67 RBIs. After some off-season surgery, Upton will at least return to his ’07 numbers when he hit 24 homeruns. Add in a guaranteed 35 stolen bases and a decent on-base percentage and you have a stud fantasy outfielder.

8. Matt Holliday (OAK): I know I’ll be receiving some heat for putting Matt Holliday as only the number eighth best outfielder. In the words of SNL greats Hans and Franz, “hear me now, see me lata.” Matt Holliday will not put up the numbers he put up in Colorado. If you don’t believe me, look at his career home/away numbers. Holliday is still a great player and I look for an increase in doubles and stolen bases. However, his power numbers and average are going to take a huge hit with his move to Oakland.

9. Manny Ramirez (FA): I really hate to even rank Manny anywhere in these projections. As we’ve seen, Manny will put up the numbers that he feels like putting up. Assuming Manny is “happy”, he has the ability to put up ridiculous numbers (see Manny in L.A.) and that’s the Manny I’m ranking at number nine. However, if Manny is back to “being Manny”, he can be extremely ordinary. Stay posted because Manny’s fantasy value will definitely depend on where he signs and for how long he signs. If he doesn’t get the money and the length of contract he feels he deserves, buyer beware.

Wingmen

10. Carlos Lee (MIL): El Caballo is about as sure a .300, 30 HRs, 100 RBIs hitter as you can find. Lee could easily suffice as you’re number one outfielder.

11. Jason Bay (BOS): Look for Bay to continue to build on his strong post-season performance. For the first time in his career, Bay has something to play for every day he comes to the ballpark.

12. Ichiro Suzuki (SEA): Here’s the easiest prediction I’ll make all year…Ichiro will hit over .300 and steal a ton of bases. You can’t put a price on consistency.

13. Carl Crawford (TB): Once the sweetheart of fantasy owners, Crawford’s value took a hit in ’08. While his offensive numbers declined, the most alarming stat was that Crawford only stole 25 bags in ’08.

14. Nick Markakis (BAL): One more year of MLB at-bats can only be good news for Markakis. I look for Markakis to put up numbers that are more comparable to his ’07 season. When this guy finally realizes his potential, he will be a top 8 fantasy outfielder. This year may be the year.

15. Matt Kemp (LAD): Speaking of having superstar potential…Kemp has all the tools and it is only a matter of time before he becomes a household name throughout baseball. He’s still only 24 and that might be the only thing that could possibly hold him back.

16. Vladmir Guerrero (LAA): On the other side of the spectrum, Vlad is on the backside of a great MLB career. Combine the departure of Mark Teixeira, some offseason knee surgery and the fact that Vlad is getting older by the day and you’re looking at a decline in his numbers. However, he still has enough to put up some decent fantasy numbers.

17. Alex Rios (TOR): I’m starting to think Adam LaRoche and Alex Rios were separated at birth. Neither seems to be able to put together a full season. Rios does have the ability to steal some bases so even if he only hits 20 HRs, he still has great value. His upside to hit more than 20 HRs is too much to ignore.

18. Nate McLouth (PIT): I originally had McLouth much higher but I stepped back and put my hometown bias aside. I am a believer in McLouth but I expect a slight decline in his power numbers.

19. Curtis Granderson (DET): Granderson continues to be someone who seems to be on the cusp of something great. Unfortunately, I’m not quite sure he’ll ever break-through. Throughout his career he has not shown the ability to put everything together. Look for more of the same from Granderson.

20. Adam Dunn (FA): Considering he’s hit exactly 40 HRs in his past four seasons, you pretty much know what you’re getting…a ton of HRs and a ton of RBIs and runs. Unfortunately, you also know his average will be nothing to write home about. It will be interesting to see where Dunn ends up. Most feel that he will end up in Washington. Stay posted.

21. Raul Ibanez (PHI): I’m not sure there is a more underrated hitter in baseball. Although Ibanez is getting a little bit older, his move to Philadelphia gives him an opportunity to hit in a great lineup and in a great ballpark. Ibanez has the chance to put up some great numbers in ’09.

22. Ryan Ludwick (STL): Ludwick came out of nowhere and hit 37 HRs while batting .299 in ‘08. Before I jump completely on the bandwagon, I’d like to see another season of production.

23. Vernon Wells (TOR): I don’t think 27 HRs, .290 and 94 RBIs are out of the question for Vernon Wells. When healthy last year, Wells was quite impressive hitting 20 HRs in only 427 at-bats. The hope is that Wells can return to his ’05 and ’06 form.

24. Corey Hart (MIL): Here’s to hoping that last year was only a stumble for Hart. He still needs to grow as a MLB hitter and I think he will in ’09. Hart will steal some bases and that along with his upside make him someone that is worth taking a chance on. The market will never be lower on him so you may be able to make him a great value pick in the middle rounds.

The Best of the Rest

25. Shane Victorino (PHI)

26. Magglio Ordonez (DET)

27. Torii Hunter (LAA)

28. Brad Hawpe (COL)

29. Milton Bradley (CHI)

30. Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)

31. Chris B. Young (ARI)

32. Hunter Pence (HOU)

33. Pat Burrell (TB)

34. Jermaine Dye (CHW)

35. Jay Bruce (CIN)

Please be sure to check back next week when we take a look at First Basemen.
As with any SportsJudge articles, please feel free to post any questions or comments. Until next time, keep your ears open for the Buzz Around the Bullpen.

First to Third: Joe Torre Breaks Hearts

I'm a big fan of current Dodger manager Joe Torre from his Yankee days. He was always the classiest man in the room, even when the Yankees kicked him to the curb like he was that week's trash. He spoke ill of no one after the Yankee/Torre divorce... until now.

The rumors of Torre's Yankee-bashing book with SI's Tom Verducci shatters the heart of any Joe Torre fan. In the book, he talks about rifs with Yankee GM Brian Cashman and about the star player from his last few years with the Yanks, a character Torre claims many in the Yankee clubhouse refer to as A-Fraud. I'll let you guess who Torre is referring to.

Like the game of baseball itself, life is a business. Every so often, though, you come across one person who seems to be above pettiness - a person who is a role model to all. Joe Torre was once that one person. However, Torre, knowing he could make a few dollars with a "tell-all" book about his time in the Bronx, sold out. Part of me understands why Torre did what he did, but the other 95% wishes "Joe Cool" kept his class.

Weekend Wrap Up: Hoyas Continue Fall, This Time to the Hall

12 Louisville (15-3) v. 8 Syracuse (17-4)

The Cardinals are flying high after another huge Big East win over a ranked opponent as they handed Syracuse its first home Big East loss of the season, 67-57. It was a knockdown drag-out Big East battle as the Orange shot under 40% from the field for the first time this year. Louisville is making a strong case for the Big East crown so far this season. They are tied atop the standings at 6-0 with the Golden Eagles of Marquette (who took down DePaul over the weekend).

14 Georgetown (12-6) v. Seton Hall (10-9)

This might be the only opportunity I get to sneak my alma mater into this column, so I’m taking full advantage. The Hall pulled out its first Big East win upsetting fourteenth ranked Georgetown 65-60. This was a very sloppy game featuring a lot of fouls, turnovers, and not much else. Neither team filled up the stat sheet, but Jeremy Hazell dropped in 23 points even while shooting 0-10 from 3-point range. It was the first time that the Pirates did not score a 3-point basket in a game since 1991, a span of 504 games. G-Town needs to rebound quickly to remain as much a contender in the Big East race as they have last their last 3 games.

11 UCLA (15-4) v. Washington (15-4)

There is a surprise leader on top of the Pac-10 so far this season, the upstart Washington Huskies. The Huskies have won 13 of their last 14 games (their only loss coming in overtime to Cal) and have a one game lead over Arizona State, California, and UCLA. Washington looks like they will be returning to the NCAA tournament this year and might be the most feared team in the Pac-10. The backcourt of Justin Dentmon and Isaiah Thomas (not the Thomas that ruins NBA franchises) lead the way for Washington shooting a combined 19-22 from the foul line and stepping up for the Huskies in key moments throughout the game.

23 Baylor (15-4) v. 5 Oklahoma (19-1)

To summarize this game you only have to mention one name: Blake Griffin. He has truly become a dominant force in the college game. As long as he continues to play at this level, you can’t count the Sooners out as legitimate title contenders. Griffin powered his way to his 16^th double-double of the season with 20 points and 17 rebounds. The eldest Griffin, Taylor, also had a big night on both ends of the floor (18 points, 7 rebounds, 3 steals, 4 blocks). There isn’t a much more enjoyable scenario in sports than watching brothers perform at such a high level. The Sooners had this game won by halftime taking a 27 point lead into the locker rooms. Oklahoma shot 58% from the floor and 47% from downtown in the blowout victory.

3 Connecticut (18-1) v. 19 Notre Dame (12-6)

The streak is finally dead. I thought the aforementioned Pirates of Seton Hall might have been the team to do it, but the streak is over nonetheless. UConn did what no team has been able to do in 45 games, grab a win in South Bend at the Joyce Center. The Huskies proved to be too much for ‘Gody and the Irish as Cool Hand Luke didn’t get much support from his teammates on his 24 point night. Kansas now holds the longest home win streak with 35 games.

I don’t know anyone who shows more effort play after play than Luke Harangody. It’s possible that Tyler Hansborough shows the same work ethic as ‘Gody, but for some reason Harangody seems to avoid getting popped in the face night after night. Hansborough has his own version of the critically acclaimed “Manning Face” that happens after an elbow, fist, knee, or whatever else flies at his face.

Super Bowl Countdown: On The Road To Tampa

[Editor's Note: With the Super Bowl only a few days away, SportsJudge wants to give you the inside scoop on the big game. Today's preview is from Mike Colligan, author of SportsJudge's "In Between the Tackles" column. It's the first in series of varying perspectives which will appear each afternoon at 1pm ET, concluding with Chris Carmona's usual in-depth look on Saturday.]

Quick. What current NFL player owns the record for sacking Ben Roethlisberger the most times in a single game? No guess? Come on, think of some of the best linebackers in the game. It's not Brian Urlacher. Not Zach Thomas. If you guessed Ray Lewis...you're in the right division. Give up? How about James Harrison. Yes, that James Harrison...of the Pittsburgh Steelers. In his final college game at Kent State, Harrison brought Big Ben down 5 times and single-handedly took Roethlisberger and Miami (Oh.) out of field-goal range on what would have been the game's game-winning drive.

Now I'm not telling you this to set the stage for a lecture on how good AP defensive player of the year James Harrison is. If you've had access to your TV or computer or football-obsessed coworker in the cubicle next to yours over the past seven days, you know ALL about that. I want to dig a little deeper and go "In Between the Tackles."

The 2008-09 version of the Pittsburgh Steelers has been fairly predictable this season in my mind. In their losses to the Eagles, Giants, Colts and Titans, Roethlisberger was absolutely harassed. The Steelers offensive line was shredded, and the rest of the offense was out of sync. Luckily, two weeks off at the end of the season (playoff bye and a 'game' against the Cleveland Browns) allowed them to come in well-rested and wear out a Baltimore Ravens squad that hadn't had a break since their unscheduled Week 2 bye. I didn't expect many problems against the Ravens and San Diego the week before, but I will admit this game makes me a little nervous.

Arizona has proven they can score with anyone in the league when they're hot. Their secondary, led by Adrian Wilson (the best safety in the game in my opinion), have become football-hungry vultures with 11 takeaways in three playoff games. The Steelers haven't proven they can run the ball with any consistency. If they have any weakness on defense, it's probably the slow and aging inside linebacker James Farrior, which could mean a big receiving day for JJ Arrington and Tim Hightower out of the backfield.

All of this being said, I still think the Steelers are definitely the better team. As I mentioned above, all of the attention is being heaped upon James Harrison, on and off the field. For that reason, I think that means Ken Whisenhunt and company will make sure that Harrison doesn't beat them. Double teams, triple teams, even a few holding penalties...whatever it takes to keep Harrison from touching Kurt Warner.

The player on defense who will benefit from this attention will be the underrated second-year linebacker out of Michigan, LaMarr Woodley. Woodley finished the season with 11.5 sacks, mostly due to the fact that he ends up in one-on-one matchups with blocking backs. I don't see the Cardinals attempting to establish much of a running game, so expect to see lots of Tim Hightower. Keep in mind Hightower is a rookie and rookies often struggle to pass-block in pressure situations. On Sunday, he has the responsibility of picking up deceiving blitzes from Harrison, Woodley and even Troy Polamalu...maybe all at once. Throw in Kurt Warner's total lack of mobility in the pocket and well-documented fumbling tendencies, and I think Woodley has a field day.

On the other side of the ball, it would be easy to predict a big game out of Hines Ward or Santonio Holmes, but my pick for the game-changer is tight end Heath Miller. Despite failing to appear in two games this season with an ankle injury, Miller reeled in a career high 48 passes in the regular season. In fact, over the past four weeks, Miller has 220 yards receiving. If you had a chance to watch the Cardinals and Eagles last week, you probably noticed that Philadelphia tight end Brent Celek became Donovan McNabb's target-of-choice and finished the game with 10 catches and two touchdowns. Keep in mind Celek only had 27 catches all season. With Ward battling a knee injury, I think Miller steps up and has a huge day against an Arizona secondary that gives up big plays and lacks depth.

Prediction: In the end, the Steelers dominating defense will be too much for Warner's aerial attack and Pittsburgh leaves Tampa with their sixth Super Bowl title and a 31-17 win.

Above the Rim: Injury Pick-Ups for the Second Half

As the season continues, the games begin to wear some players out and lead to injuries. Sometimes the key to winning a fantasy league is picking up the right injury replacement. Recent pick-ups suggested on this blog have included the Cavs’ Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic, both of whom have been averaging double figures as starters. Look for these three players to contribute on a similar level as long as their playing time remains consistent.

Von Wafer, Houston Rockets
I was at the McDonald’s All-American game in Cleveland in 2003 when LeBron James, Chris Paul, Charlie Villaneuva, and Shannon Brown all looked like future stars. Leon Powe, Brandon Bass, and Travis Outlaw all looked good as well. Luol Deng did not play in the game, but was also there. Von Wafer (along with Aaron Brooks and Kendrick Perkins) was overshadowed. Now in his fourth year, Wafer is finally getting a chance to show why he was one of the top 25 prep players in the country that year. After playing just 228 minutes in his first 3 seasons, Wafer is getting some solid playing time as the Rockets are hit with injuries to Ron Artest and Tracy McGrady. Wafer has started 11 games, including the last 10, this season. In those starts, he has contributed 16.4 points in 33 minutes. His shooting percentages have been solid as well at 49.7%, including 38.5% from behind the arc. Wafer also contributes 2.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.4 steals from the shooting guard position; not great stats, but solid when added to his scoring ability. In the month of January, which included 10 starts in 11 games, Wafer is averaging 16.6 points and shooting above 50% (50.7%) and almost 40% on threes (39.6%). The consistent playing time has allowed Wafer to get into a rhythm. His lowest output in January has been 12 points and he has topped out with 2 games over 20 points. For the season, Wafer is averaging 10.6 points on 47% shooting with 38.7% on threes, so he will still be a solid play when McGrady comes back. If Wafer is available, pick him up and play him at least until the Rockets are healthy. After that, he may still be a solid option off the bench for the Rockets so what and see how he is used because he could still be a contributor.

Steve Novak, LA Clippers
The Clippers front court is currently decimated with injuries to Marcus Camby, Chris Kaman, and Zach Randolph. In a recent win over the Thunder, Brian Skinner, who had started every game in January, was scratched with flu-like symptoms which led to Cheikh Samb playing 22 of the 56 minutes he has played all season. With all of these injuries, Novak has become one of the guys in coach Mike Dunleavy’s big man rotation behind DeAndre Jordan, Al Thornton, and Skinner. Novak, a 6’10” forward who shoots like a CIA sniper, has seen his playing time nearly triple to 19 minutes a game in January. Novak has responded with 9.2 points on 51.4% shooting from the floor and an impressive 51.1% on threes (23 of 45) and 100% from the free throw line (only 6 attempts). Despite the increased playing time, Novak’s contributions have been almost exclusively in scoring and shooting. Even though he is almost 7 feet tall, Novak’s season high in rebounds is 4 and he has blocked just 2 shots this season. However, if you are looking for someone to score and bring your team’s shooting and 3-point percentages up, Novak is worth a look. With time, he may begin to develop a nose for rebounds and improve upon his average of 1.1, but for now, most owners will take the 9 points and deadly accuracy from the outside.

Monta Ellis, Golden State Warriors
Ellis made his season debut in a one point loss to the Cavs on Friday night and looked as though he never missed a game. His signature quickness was still there despite his off-season ankle injury and he almost led (with Stephen Jackson) the Warriors to an upset over Cleveland. The Warriors struggled to fill Ellis’s shoes in the first half of the season, and it showed as Ellis filled the stat sheet. Ellis finished with 20 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block in his debut. His shooting percentage was only 42.1%, but that was probably due to playing the league’s number one defense more than Ellis being off his game. If Ellis is available in your league due to his suspension and injury at the beginning of the season, pick him up now. Ellis will average 20 points for the rest of the season and should contribute around 5 assists as well. He may be the missing piece for the Warriors this season, and while they may be too far back to make the playoffs, the team should be improved in the second half. Jackson, Ellis, and Corey Maggette should provide consistent scoring with Jamal Crawford, Andris Biedrins, and Anthony Morrow supplementing their efforts. Ellis could be the pick up to put your team over the top; there aren’t many all-stars available as free agents in most fantasy leagues, so take advantage if he is.

Luck of the Draw: He Shoots, He Scores a Million

On January 14, the Chicago Blackhawks announced an interesting new promotion called the "Million Dollar Minute" for all home games the rest of the season. One random adult fan in attendance would be chosen at random and if the Hawks scored at exactly the 10:00 mark of the 2nd period, the fan wins $1 million.

On January 19, five days later, Cary Stolarczyk of Indian Head Park, IL cashed in when Martin Havlat found the back of the net with...you guessed it...exactly 10:00 left in the 2nd period.

At a time when companies are still willing to dole out $3 million or more for a 30-second spot in the Super Bowl, the $1 million promotion is not a huge shock; but when the jackpot hits in the third game of the promotion, I couldn't help but wonder what the odds of that happening are.

Luckily, CNBC's Darren Rovel did part of the legwork and contacted US Hole In One, a company which regularly insures these types of contests. The representative from US Hole In One shed some light on the odds, which weren't nearly as tough as I expected at first glance:

Greg Esterhai of US Hole In One says the odds of a player scoring a goal at any second in any game is about 1 in 1,000. But Esterhai says that since the promotion is a season-long promotion, the odds go down to about a 1 in 25 chance. He said that this makes the goal promotion more likely to happen over the course of a season than a fan hitting a full court shot in any particular game, which is about a 1 in 50 chance.

Let's say you live in the Chicago area. You've been "donating" dollar after dollar to the state lottery with the hopes of one day winning the jackpot and retiring to the Bahamas. Now you've found out some fan goes to a Blackhawks game and wins a million that easily! Naturally, you start to wonder what's really the best use of that entertainment dollar? Let's take a look...

The United Center's capacity is 20,500. Assuming a few thousands fans in attendance are minors and ineligible, the actual odds of any particular adult fan winning the million at a home game falls somewhere around 1-in-18,000,000. In section 326, where Stolarczyk was seated, season tickets run at $660 for 40 home games, or $16 per game. Since that would be the equivalent of buying 16 separate $1 tickets for the lottery, your true odds of attending a game at that price and hitting for a million are 1-in-1,125,000.

By comparison, according to the Illinois State Lottery website, the odds of winning the normal $2 million jackpot on a $1 ticket is 1-in-10,179,260...which means an equivalent $1 million payout would be at odds of 1-in-5,089,630.

Throw in some of the NHL's brightest young stars, an exciting atmosphere, and a potential Stanley Cup playoff run on the horizon...and you have no excuse to sit at home watching WGN for the Monday, Wednesday and Saturday Lotto drawing at 9:22 p.m. Get out and catch a Hawks game.

Starting Lineup: January 26-February 1

With Spring Training just around the corner, be sure to check out SportsJudge.com for all your Fantasy Baseball dispute resolution needs. SportsJudge is now offering dispute resolution season packages as well as fully-customized League Constitutions on sale for a limited time only.

[Editor's Note: The Starting Lineup is a weekly rundown of HDTV sports schedule for the next seven days]

Monday, January 26:
Tennis 3:30 AM Australian Open: Round of 16
Replay will be shown at 3:00pm ESPN2
Golf 12:00 PM FBR Open TPC of Scottsdale-Stadium Course CBS
NCAABB 7:00 PM Marquette Golden Eagles vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Tennis 7:00 PM Australian Open: Mens Round of 16
Womens Quarterfinals Tenns Ch
NCAABB 7:30 PM Louisville Cardinals vs UConn Huskies ESPN 2
NCAABB 9:00 PM Oklahoma Sooners vs Oklahoma State Cowboys ESPN
Tennis 9:30 PM Australian Open: Quarterfinals ESPN2

Tuesday, January 27:
Tennis 3:30 AM Australian Open: Quarterfinals
Replay will be shown at 3:00pm ESPN2 (720p)
Golf 12:00 PM FBR Open TPC of Scottsdale-Stadium Course CBS
NHL 7:00 PM Washington Capitals vs Boston Bruins VERSUS
NCAABB 7:00 PM Kentucky Wildcats vs Ole Miss Rebels ESPN
NCAABB 7:00 PM Miami Hurricanes vs UNC Tarheels ESPN U
Tennis 7:00 PM Australian Open: Quarterfinals Tenns Ch
NHL 7:30 PM Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning RDS
NCAABB 9:00 PM Purdue Boilermakers vs Wisconsin Badgers ESPN
Tennis 9:30 PM Australian Open: Quarterfinals ESPN2

Wednesday, January 28:
Tennis 3:30 AM Australian Open: Quarterfinals
Replay will be shown at 3:00pm ESPN2
Golf 12:00 PM FBR Open TPC of Scottsdale-Stadium Course CBS
NCAABB 7:00 PM Duke Blue Devils vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons ESPN
NCAABB 7:00 PM Pittsburgh Panthers vs Villanova Wildcats ESPN U
Tennis 7:00 PM Australian Open: Quarterfinals Tenns Ch
NHL 8:00 PM Buffalo Sabres vs Calgary Flames TSN
NBA 9:00 PM Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks ESPN
NCAABB 9:00 PM Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Texas A&M Aggies ESPN U
Tennis 9:30 PM Australian Open: Womens Semifinals ESPN2
NCAABB 10:00 PM TCU Horned Frogs vs San Diego State Basketball CBS CS
NHL 10:30 PM Nashville Predators vs Vancouver Canucks TSN

Thursday, January 29:
Tennis 3:30 AM Australian Open: Mens Semifinals
Replay will be shown at 3:00pm ESPN2
Golf 12:00 PM FBR Open TPC of Scottsdale-Stadium Course CBS
NHL 7:00 PM Montreal Canadiens vs Florida Panthers TSN RDS
NCAABB 7:00 PM Clemson Tigers vs Virginia Tech Hokies ESPN
NCAABB 7:00 PM Ole Miss Rebels vs Tennessee Vols ESPN U
NBA 8:00 PM Cleveland Cavaliers vs Orlando Magic TNT
NBA 10:30 PM San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns TNT
NHL 10:30 PM Chicago Blackhawks vs Los Angeles Kings WGN
Tennis 11:00 PM Australian Open: Womens Doubles Finals Tenns Ch

Friday, January 30:
Tennis 3:30 AM Australian Open: Mens Semifinals
Replay will be shown at 3:00pm ESPN2
Golf 12:00 PM FBR Open TPC of Scottsdale-Stadium Course CBS
NBA 7:00 PM Boston Celtics vs Detroit Pistons ESPN
NBA 9:30 PM Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Hornets ESPN
Tennis 11:30 PM Australian Open: Mens Doubles Finals Tenns Ch

Saturday, January 31:
Tennis 3:30 AM Australian Open: Womens Finals
Replay will be shown at 8:00pm ESPN2
NCAABB 12:00 PM Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Pittsburgh Panthers ESPN
Golf 12:00 PM FBR Open TPC of Scottsdale-Stadium Course CBS
NHL 2:00 PM Los Angeles Kings vs Montreal Canadiens RDS
NCAABB 4:00 PM Colorado Buffaloes vs Kansas Jayhawks ESPN U
NHL 7:00 PM Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs RDS
NCAABB 8:00 PM Depaul Blue Demons vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights ESPN U
NCAABB 9:00 PM Florida Gators vs Tennessee Vols ESPN
Tennis 12:00 AM Australian Open: Mixed Doubles Finals Tenns Ch

Sunday, February 1:
Tennis 12:00 AM Australian Open: Mixed Doubles Finals Tenns Ch
Tennis 3:30 AM Australian Open: Mens Finals
Replay will be shown at 3:00pm ESPN2
Golf 12:00 PM FBR Open TPC of Scottsdale-Stadium Course CBS
NHL 2:00 PM Boston Bruins vs Montreal Canadiens RDS
NBA 2:30 PM Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons ABC
NFL 6:18 PM Super Bowl XLIII (Arizona Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Steelers) in Tampa Fla NBC