Fantasy NASCAR: Autism Speaks 400

After a disappointing rained out race weekend last weekend we move forward to Dover, Delaware for the Autism Speaks 400. This 1-mile track has an abundance of history and no driver has won two races in a row since 2003 when Ryan Newman won both races in 2003. Three of the past four races here have been won by a different car company with Dodge not winning since... 2003. This race used to be 500 miles long until NASCAR limited 500-mile races for tracks longer than 1-mile. With all the history here is what I see going on this Sunday.

1- Kyle Busch: He won here last June and to be honest, he is due. I have this feeling that he will break out this weekend. In 8 career races here he has 5 top 5 finishes. That is amazing considering that 3 of the last 5 races here he has finished 43, 40, & 17th. Last year he finished last because of a bad engine, but I feel good about this with him starting 6th.

2- Matt Kenseth: His name really hasn't been mentioned since he won the first two races of the year, but I am putting him back on the map. Over the past 10 races at this track, who has led more laps than Kenseth? No one. He won here in 2006 and his team has been trying to piece together what they had early in the season. Kenseth knows this track and starts 14th. Welcome back to the top-5.

3- Tony Stewart: I am still sold on him. He is my favorite driver and you have to go back to 2000 to find the last time he won here. In fact he won both races in 2000. Those stats are irrelevant now but when a driver is hot, you don't get off the bandwagon. His stats at this track don't add up to a top-5 finish but you go with the hot driver.

4- Mark Martin: Speaking of hot drivers, how about Mark Martin. Let's be honest, you were expecting a "Morgan Sheppard" type year (If you don't know who he is look him up). Over the last 10 races at Dover, he is 2nd amongst active drivers. So while he was struggling the past few years he was still succeeding at Dover. NASCAR is a skill sport but age is irrelevant. Martin has it even at the age of 50.

5- Greg Biffle: Biffle is that guy that has the most points over the last 10 races at Dover. Two wins and five top 10s during that span can't be matched. Biffle starts 5th on Sunday and should stay up near the top the entire race. Biffle has been quiet all year but this might as well be a breakout weekend for some of the quiet guys. Dover is a special track to most drivers with the history it possesses and Biffle will captialzie.

First to Third: History in the Making

To be honest, I've said this before. When Greg Maddux won his 300th game, I was pretty confident that there wouldn't be another 300 game winner ever again. Then Tom Glavine won 300. With his 299th career victory on Wednesday, Randy Johnson is going to prove me wrong yet again. This time, however, I mean it when I say soak up Johnson's accomplishment and his longevity. It really won't happen again.

After Johnson, 46 year old Jamie Moyer and his 249 career wins are next. Roy Halladay, a possible candidate has only 139 wins and is 32. According to a recent Sports Illustarated article, he'd need 16 wins a year for the next 10 years to make it. Youngster Tim Lincecum is 25 and has 28 career wins. That means he needs 15 wins a year until he's 43. Impossible? Well, no. Unlikely? A definitive yes.

In the era of keeping pitchers in a crib for most of their early years (see: The Joba Rules), teams are very protective of pitchers and any scraped knee will probably lead to a trip to the DL. It is very difficult to be healthy for long enough to make it to 300 wins. You also need to pitch for a pretty good team for most of your career. Because of these factors, Johnson will be the last 300 game winner (until someone else proves me wrong).

And Now You Know!: The Big Train

I had a recent discussion with a fellow baseball fan and we spoke about 300 wins by a pitcher. Are we about to witness the last time it will ever happen, assuming Randy Johnson gets one win by season's end? Think about that, what if I told you that tomorrow morning would be the last time the sun would rise? You would probably want to watch it, granted Randy Johnson is on a lower level of things happening in comparison to the sun never rising again, but still, its a big deal for a baseball fan.

A look at anyone close would point to Jamie Moyer (249 wins) to be next, but that won't happen. Someone like Roy Halladay has 139 wins at age 32 after 12 season. Unlikely he'll see 250. Andy Pettitte has 219 wins and the list of guys who won't come close grows longer and longer. You have to look to the young guys to find anyone with a possibility. One guy who sticks out is Roy Oswalt. Oswalt has 130 wins in 9 seasons. He would need 10 more years averaging 17 wins, which coincidentally is his 162 game average.

So with no one getting close to the 23 guys already with 300 wins I take a second to talk about the guy in second all-time in wins with 417 wins, trailing only Cy Young's 511. The Big Train Walter Johnson had numbers that are inconceivable.

The Big Train played for just one team his entire career while amassing the 417 victories. From 1907-1927 he suited up for the Washington Senators. His fastball was unlike any other of his time, topping 90 MPH. Hitters were amazed by the smooth motion and rapid approach of the ball. He collected over 3,500 strikeouts, a record which stood for over 50 years. 110 shutouts, most in MLB history including pitching three straight shutouts versus the NY Highlanders at one point.

All those stats are great but which one of the following is more amazing. The fact that over his 20 year career he only gave up 97 homeruns in nearly 6000 innings pitched. Or that he went 42-97 (.433) hitting in 1925? It is amazing that there is no award for pitchers called the "Walter Johnson Award" a la Cy Young Award. In 1913 he went 36-7 with a 1.14 ERA when the leagues ERA was nearly 2.5 times that. It is judged by some as the most impressive single season pitching ever.

So as we prepare for the 300th victory by The Big Unit, lets pause for a second, listen to Tim Kurkjian on ESPN give a monologue with sorrowful music in the background, and wonder if we will ever see this again.

And Now You Know! (And Knowing is Half the Battle)

Who's Hot and Who's Not Around the Minor Leagues: MWL Pitchers Can't Slow Cubs' Vitters

Vitters has slugged 8 HRs over the last two weeks

Apparently being the bridesmaid is the place to be on the Hots and Nots list, as last week’s runners-up stole the show this week. On the hitter’s side of things, Josh Vitters continued his torrid pace and now heads this week’s list. On the pitching side of things, the Indians’ Jeanmar Gomez went from #2 to throwing the Minor League’s first perfect game in two years. We’ll see how things play out with this week’s list.

Hot Hitters –

1) Josh Vitters, 3B, CHN – Calling Vitters ‘Hot’ just doesn’t seem to be enough for last week’s runner up. As we put this list together a week ago he had just ended a 4-game streak where he had 3 Hits and a HR in every game. He popped 4 more HRs this past week, and is now batting .398/.412/.774 for the month of May…Those are aluminum bat type numbers. All is not perfect with Vitters though, as he still only has but 4 BB on the year, but even though just 19yo, it is beginning to look like the Midwest League (MWL) won’t hold him much longer.

2) Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM – One of my personal favorites, Martinez has been unfairly criticized over the last two seasons for not posting the superstar type numbers that might be expected from a player that gets that much ink. Instead, as the youngest player in AAA (make that now the second youngest player, behind Rick Porcello, in the Major Leagues), he has gotten off to a nearly .900 OPS start. Martinez has posted a .325/.386/.775 line over the last two weeks, which, in the short run, has earned him a call-up to replace the injured Ryan Church. He is likely to return to AAA when Church is healthy, but make no mistake, this is a future all-star.

3) Matt Wieters, C, BAL – Speaking of call-ups and future all-stars, the most anticipated call-up of the season is about to occur as Wieters is poised to make his Major League debut on Friday. He is expected to immediately become the Orioles everyday Catcher and instantly becomes the favorite for AL rookie of the year. .353/.400/.706 over the last two weeks.

4) Jason Heyward, OF, ATL – Heyward had a two week period of time at the end of April where he was slumping badly, with a .143 AVG and a .412 OPS. Since the middle of the month he has been on fire. Heyward has posted a .362/.434/.745 over the last two weeks and has a .935 OPS on the season as only a 19yo in the Carolina (CAR) League.

5) Pedro Baez, 3B, LAD – The Dodgers have been waiting on a breakout season from Baez since he signed out of the Dominican in early 2007. While the MWL proved more than he could handle last season, his late summer Pioneer (PIO) League showing convinced the Dodgers to move him up to the California (CAL) league this year. Baez has responded well, posting an .840 OPS to open the year. He still needs to learn more plate discipline if he is going to experience success further up the ladder, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a .367/.424/.800 over the last two weeks.

6) Brandon Snyder, OF, BAL – While Snyder may have proven that he doesn’t possess the defensive skills to be a Catcher or an everyday OF, he’s also proven he can hit. The 22yo, former 1st round pick, is making the Eastern (ESL) League look easy, as he now has a 1.044 OPS on the year after going .357/.438/.738 over the last two weeks.

7) Jaff Decker, OF, SDP – Still named ‘Jaff’, still a bad-bodied OF, and still keeps raking. A .355/.474/.710 over the last two weeks puts him at a 1.076 OPS for the year and the first player ever with 4 straight ‘Hot’ appearances.

8) Juan Francisco, 3B, CIN – If there is one thing that is a given in minor league baseball it is that Juan Francisco will make an appearance, at least once, on both the ‘Hot’ and the ‘Not’ list. The free-swinging Francisco has been making contact lately, going .348/.375/.630 over his last 50 PAs.

9) Matt Sulentic, OF, OAK – Great things were expected for Sulentic after the, then 18yo, 3rd round pick turned heads by posting an .880 OPS in the predominantly college-player filled Northwest (NWL) League in his 2006 debut. Sulentic turned things around a little in the California (CAL) League last year, and he is posting a solid season thus far in the Texas (TXL) League. .341/.438/.535 over his last 50 PAs.

10) Peter Bourjos, CF, LAA – Bourjos has demonstrated classic lead-off hitter skills since he made his Pioneer League debut in 2006. His CF defense is first rate and the only question has been would he be able to develop the patience to hit at the top of a major league order. While the jury is still out, Bourjos, at 22yo, is posting a solid TXL season and looks to be about a year away from contributing in the Major Leagues. .400/.411/.600 over the last two weeks.



Hot Pitchers –

1) Vin Mazzaro, RHP, OAK – While Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill found themselves in the Athletics’ rotation this Spring, Mazzaro found himself back in Sacramento. He hasn’t let that get him down, as he has not allowed an earned run, and has allowed only two hits and one walk while fanning 11 over his last two starts. While he may not have the long-term upside of the aforementioned Anderson and Cahill, Mazzaro looks ready for his shot right now.

2) Mat Latos, RHP, SDP – There has never been any question about Latos’ arm—his pure ‘stuff’ compares favorably with any pitcher in the Minor Leagues, it’s his attitude and work ethic that have raised the biggest concerns. Nonetheless, Latos absolutely destroyed MWL hitters in 4 outings before earning a promotion to AA. The challenge there will be significant and should be quite telling about what the future may look like. In any case he’s one of the hottest pitchers going right now, as he’s posted a 1.02 ERA, 0.566 WHIP with a 19:3 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

3) Tyler Chatwood, RHP, LAA – There are a couple of things to understand about Chatwood. First of all, despite being under-sized, he is an excellent all-around athlete that probably could have been drafted as an OF. Second, he is only a 19yo and has both a fastball and a curve that already rate as plus pitches. In a somewhat surprising development he has used both of these to dominate MWL hitters in the early going, with opposing hitters batting only .171 against him. Over the past two weeks he’s put up a 0.75 ERA, and a 0.667 WHIP. The downside is he is walking 5 batters per 9IP and will have to fine tune his control if he is going to have success at higher levels.

4) David Hernandez, RHP, BAL – One of the most surprising stats I have come across in a while is this…only 4 pitchers have over 500 Minor League strikeouts since 2006: 4) Will Inman - 503, 3) Matt Maloney – 542, 2) Gio Gonzalez -546 and 1) David Hernandez – 548. That’s right, no one has fanned more Minor League hitters than David Hernandez, yet he hardly gets any ink. After racking up big K numbers once again this year, Hernandez has earned a trip to Baltimore to make his first start on Thursday. A 0.00 ERA, 0.711 WHIP with a 20:4 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

5) Tommy Hanson, RHP, ATL – Hanson has been the Minor’s best pitcher to date, with a 1.48 ERA and a 0.852 WHIP as a 22yo in the International (IL) League. While biding his time until he gets the call to Atlanta, Hanson posted a 0.64 ERA, 0.714 WHIP and a 16:3 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

6) Ben Hornbeck, LHP, OAK – This week’s ‘Who’s He?’ award winner, Hornbeck was the Athletics’ 32nd round pick out of Kansas State in last June’s draft. He is viewed as the consummate ‘Crafty Lefty’. Translated, he doesn’t have an out pitch but uses an array of pitches to take advantage of less experienced hitters. That was the story in the MWL, which quickly earned him a promotion to Stockton. Hornbeck has allowed no earned runs with a 0.545 WHIP and a 15:2 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

7) Brad Lincoln, RHP, PIT – Another Pirate 1st round pitching prospect that has seen his career derailed by injuries, the 24yo Lincoln is trying to get it back on track in the Eastern (ESL) League this year. A 0.56 ERA, 0.625 WHIP with a 11:3 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks leaves Lincoln with a 2.05 ERA on the season.

8) Jeanmar Gomez, RHP, CLE - The book on Gomez entering the season was that he doesn’t have the raw ‘stuff’ to be a successful big league starter. All that I know is that as a 21yo, he has enough stuff to throw a ‘perfect’ game in the ESL. The guy without enough ‘stuff’ just keeps on rolling, posting a 1.57 ERA, 0.609 WHIP with a 20:2 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

9) Wily Peralta, RHP, MIL – As a 16yo, the Brewers gave Peralta one of the highest bonuses awarded to a Latin American player in 2005. After making his debut in 2006, Peralta lost the entire 2007 season to Tommy John surgery. Last year he got back in time to throw about 30 Pioneer League innings in which he turned quite a few heads. Right now he still gets by primarily on a mid-90s fastball, causing many to see him as a future Closer. Only 20yo, I’d give him some time to develop a couple of more offerings and see if he can stay in the rotation. In either case, he is dominating MWL hitters. A 1.23 ERA, 0.750 WHIP with a 23:3 K:BB ratio over his last three starts.

10) Jordan Lyles, RHP, HOU – I don’t think it is an exaggeration to say that the Astros pick of Lyles was the most surprising pick in the first round of last June’s draft. At the moment it appears that Houston may get the last laugh. Just 18yo, Lyles has posted a 1.50 ERA, a 0.917 WHIP and a 17:4 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.


The Nots –

1) Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, FLA – Sinkbeil seems to be a fixture on this list as he is having an awful season. Over his last three starts he has a 12.15 ERA, a 2.850 WHIP, and a 1:7 BB:K ratio.

2) Jefry Marte, 3B, NYM – Although I am not sure why I should, I still believe in Marte. He’s not making it easy, going .093/.152/.093 over the last two weeks. He’s now gone 54 ABs without an extra base hit.

3) Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, MIL – Jeffress on the hand, I have never believed in. Despite now only pitching in Hi-A, the last two weeks have yielded a 14.00 ERA, 2.778 WHIP with a 10:15 K:BB ratio.

4) Bret Clevlen, OF, DET – Never really projected to be much more than a 4th OF type, Clevlen has been unable to make anything out a couple of auditions with the Tigers. After his start this season, he may never get another chance. A .054/.103/.081 over the last two weeks.

5) Jermaine Curtis, 3B, STL – The Cardinals 5th round choice last June posted a solid debut in the New York-Penn (NYP) League after signing. Full season ball is apparently another story. A .116/.136/.163 over the last two weeks, leaves him with a .536 OPS on the year.

6) Jack McGeary, LHP, WSN – McGeary is another player finding the transition from the NYP to full season ball rather difficult. Over the last two weeks he has a 10.80 ERA, a 2.40 WHIP and a 5:6 K:BB ratio.

7) Nico Vasquez, SS, STL – No one ever expected Vasquez to hit a ton, but a .538 OPS for the year isn’t what they had in mind either. The 20yo Vasquez has a .170/.200/.226 over the last two weeks.

8) Brett Cecil, LHP, TOR – The Jays gave Cecil 4 starts in Toronto to prove that he wasn’t ready for the Major Leagues just yet. The funny thing is that those were the good starts. Back in AAA, Cecil has posted a 9.28 ERA, a 2.156 WHIP with a 5:6 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

9) Matt Dominguez, 3B, FLA – After being considered at one time the best prep hitter from California in the 2007 draft (remember Vitters and Moustakas?), Dominguez hasn’t translated that to production professionally. He’s still just 19yo and playing in the Florida State (FSL) League, but a .103/.103/.103 over the last two weeks leaves his OPS at .564 on the season.


10) Manny Pina, C, TEX – Pina becomes the second player (after Jason Knapp) to appear on both the ‘Hot’ and ‘Not’ lists this season. He was scorching early on, so his recent .111/.111/.194 still puts his OPS at .866 on the season, but remember Pina had only a .628 OPS for his career when the season started.

Fenst's Farm Report: Now Arriving, Matt Weiters!

Welcome back to another edition of Fenst's Farm Report. In this edition I will feature a number of the recent call ups from around the league along with a few players who were just sent down that will have an impact again in the big leagues this year. Let's start with the top two prospects in the minor leagues with David Price, the top pitching prospect, and Matt Wieters, the top hitting prospect.

Price has been on the radar for over a season now (really, since he was drafted out of Vanderbilt) and he may finally get his permanent crack at the rotation. It was the injury to the ace lefty of the staff that brought up the future left-handed ace in Price. Kazmir's injury vaulted Price to the big league squad when things were starting to look like Price might be down for a while. It was only a matter of time before he took the job of Jeff Niemann or the struggling Andy Sonnanstine. I think this move will keep Price in the rotation and be most likely the end of Niemann in the rotation. Sonnanstine needs to turn it around real quick or another top pitching prospect in Wade Davis will take his job in the rotation as well.

Expect a very high K/9 ratio from Price as he is one of the premier strikeout pitching prospects. He may struggle with his command at times, but that is something that comes with the inexperience. He is capable of coming out and striking out 10+ at any time. That kind of talent is undeniable. He should provide a well needed boost to a struggling rotation. He will be sitting comfortably in the four spot of the rotation by the end of the year with endless potential to fill.

Price has some new competition in his own division that he is going to have to deal with come this Friday. One of my newest man crushes, Matt Wieters, is getting the call to the majors and will make his debut on Friday. Now I will have a reason to want to watch Orioles games. Wieters will be considered by many to be a top 5 hitting catcher day 1 in the major leagues. There is a lot of pressure on him to help turn things around in Baltimore. Hopefully he doesn't fold under the pressure that comes along with being the #1 prospect. Alex Gordon was talked as being the start of the turnaround for the Royals, but they have thrived without him in the lineup during his DL stint and when he was in the lineup there was little to no production.

His ability and potential are, again, hard to deny. I know I sound like a broken record, but this kid is a polished hitter and all the tools of a superstar are there. Baseball, however, is a mental sport as well as physical. If he starts off slumping right out of the gates it will be interesting to see how he handles adversity. There is always the other factor with a catcher of managing a major league staff, which is never easy. Even with all the risk that comes along with Wieters I am a Strong Buy for him. Try and get him on your fantasy team now before he starts making his name in the bigs.

There are a few other call ups that also happened this week. I talked about Jake Fox and his insane numbers a few weeks ago. He is getting his shot with the Cubs and could be an outfielder to keep your eye on. He was leading the Pacific League in arguably every category 40 R, 17 HR, 50 RBIs, .423 AVG, .503 OBP, .886 SLG. Every time I have looked at his numbers I feel like its from a video game and my created character in Road to the Show mode is just having an insane first half because I am still playing on the rookie level. Mets prospect, Fernando Martinez, is going to see some playing time with all of the injuries that are destroying the Mets roster. Martinez is still very raw at 20 years old and his numbers were good in the minors this year, but not outstanding. I don't see him coming into New York and being an instant success. It is a tough place to play and the fans expect so much of that team this year after choking in back to back Septembers. With top players getting hurt the pressure will fall onto others shoulders, including their top hitting prospect.

A player who was recently sent back to AAA that I feel will be back hitting homers in bunches by seasons end is Matt LaPorta. He is a masher, there is no other way to put it. I think that the Indians will be out of the race soon enough in the Central and there are a lot of injury prone vets in front of him that will bring him back up into the everyday lineup. Don't give up on him yet if you are in a deep league and can spare the bench spot. Well, that's all I got for this edition. Come back in two weeks for another exciting edition of Fenst's Farm Report.

The Mulligan: Fantasy Golf Picks for The Colonial

This week the Tour heads to Fort Worth, Texas for the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial Country Club. I have some good fantasy golf picks for you.

Kenny Perry should have a good week at Colonial. He is a two time winner here and he has had a stellar 2009 so far. The Western Kentucky Alum has six Top-10 finishes this season including a win and a 2nd place finish at the Masters. He has not missed a cut in 12 starts this season.

Brian Davis is one of the hottest players on Tour right now. He has finished in the Top 5 in his last 3 starts, and has shot 59 consecutive rounds below par. The only drawback to picking him this week is that he finished T-59 here last year. That doesn't bother me though, because I think this is a different Brian Davis. I would take him on any course right now.

I have been touting Geoff Ogilvy all year, and this week is no exception. Ogilvy already has 2 wins on Tour, and he is looking to add his third. The Aussie finished in the Top-10 here last year, and could play well this week.

Good luck this week and lets keep moving to the top of the fantasy golf rankings!

First to Third: Phils Don't Miss Burrell

We're not even a third of the way into the season, but so far the Phillies signing of soon-to-be 37 year old Raul Ibanez looks like a great move for a team looking to upgrade in left field.

So far, Ibanez leads the league in home runs and RBI, slugging percentage and OPS while former left fielder Pat Burrell is hitting a pedestrian .250 with 1 home run and 17 RBI. Ibanez has also played a solid left field for Philadelphia earning a +1 in the plus/minus system with two outfield assists, as opposed to Burrell's -10 last year (The plus/minus system rates players based on how many plays they would make compared to the average fielder). Burrell has yet to see the outfield grass for the Rays, who have been using Pat the Bat as a DH when he was in the lineup.

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. took a lot of heat for giving a 37 year old a three year deal, but for $6.5 million this year, Amaro could have done a lot worse. Like all older ballplayers, Father Time catches up eventually, but since he wasn't a regular until age 30, Ibanez could be very productive for the duration of this contract.

The Buzz Around The Bullpen: You're Outman

Welcome back to another edition of the Buzz Around the Bullpen. This past weekend, baseball entered into its first weekend of interleague play for the 2009 season. Since its inception in 1997, interleague play has been a source of much debate amongst baseball fans. While some argue that interleague play takes away from the mystique of the World Series, I think interleague play is great for baseball. For one, it gives fans an opportunity to see players up close that they would never see otherwise. As a Pirates fan, the only chance I'll ever see the Boston Red Sox or the New York Yankees is through an interleague series because the Buccos run at the World Series usually ends by Cinco De Mayo. Also, it provides a chance for local teams to square off to settle inner-city/inner-state rivalries (i.e. Mets/Yankees, Cubs/White Sox). The only valid arguments critics have is that certain teams lack interleague rivals (Braves/Blue Jays this past weekend) and that American League pitchers could injure themselves when they are forced to hit (see Chien Ming Wang). However, it is my feeling that these are not compelling enough arguments to deprive fans of what usually turns out to be a great series of baseball games.

For right now, let's discuss some hits and misses for this upcoming week of fantasy.

Big Hits

Josh Outman (OAK, SP): Oakland has had a rough start to their 2009 campaign but Josh Outman has been a bright spot over the past month and a half. In just over 40 innings this season, Outman has posted a 2.90 ERA and has also managed to strikeout 31 hitters. He has kept opposing hitters to a batter average of .212. Because of his strong performances and the inconsistency of other Oakland starters, it seems as though Outman has found a home in the A's starting rotation. The only thing that hurts Outman is that he is a starter for the Oakland A's and they have a long history of failing to provide their starters with run support. However, that shouldn't be enough to ignore him if you're looking to strengthen the back-end of your rotation.

Michael Cuddyer (MIN, OF): If Michael Cuddyer is still available in your league, you need to stop reading this and immediately go grab him. Cuddyer has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the past week and even when he does cool off, he'll still be a more than servicable fantasy option. In his only two "full" seasons of at-bats in 2006 and 2007, Cuddyer produced above average numbers and I look for him to produce similar numbers this season. In fact, it is not of the question to expect 20+ HRs with 95 runs, 95 RBIs and around 8 stolen bases. If nothing else, he's hitting in a lineup with Joe Mauer and that's a great place to be these days.

Dave Bush (MIL, SP): Dave Bush has been a guy that fantasy owners have been waiting to break-out for several years now. It's starting to look like he is finally realizing his potential. In nine games started this season, Bush has given up three or less runs in seven of those starts. While he's not going to lead your team to the strikeout crown, he's shown the ability to rack up 4-5 K's a start (42 K's in 59 2/3 IP). Although his offense took a huge hit with the loss of Rickie Weeks for the season, the Brew Crew has too many superstars to be held down by some weak National League pitching staffs. This is good news for Bush because once his offense starts hitting consistently, I look for Bush to steal a couple of wins. With three wins already, Bush has a chance to finish with 12-14 wins along with some fairly decent fantasy numbers.

Big Miss

Brad Lidge (PHI, RP): I'm starting to think that someone sent footage of the Albert Pujols monster homerun he hit off of Lidge in the 2005 NLCS to the Phillies clubhouse. If you remember, Lidge wasn't the same for quite some time...that is until last year. In '08, Lidge was a perfect 48-48 in converting save opportunites as he led the Phils to a World Series Championship. This year has been a totally different story for Lidge. In fact, Lidge currently possesses an 0-2 record and an alarming 9.15 ERA. The most difficult thing for Lidge owners to swallow however is the fact that Lidge has blown three out of his eleven save opportunities in '09.

In case you haven't noticed, closers are a lot like hockey goalies. They are superstitious, quirky, methodical, meticulous, insane and...insane. The traits that makes them successful are the same traits that cause them to continue to struggle after a couple of rough outings. Making Lidge's situation even more complex is that hitters are hitting his best pitch (slider) and that has to be killing his confidence. As soon as a closer starts to question his "stuff", you might as well schedule an "Intervention" on the A & E channel. If there is any good news with Lidge it's that the Phils have already come out and said that nothing is physically wrong with Lidge. However, if Lidge continues to struggle, it may take some middle relief time to get his confidence back. Because of this possibility, I'd stash Ryan Madson or Chad Durbin away in case Charlie Manuel makes this temporary move.

As with any SportsJudge articles, please feel free to post any questions or comments. Until next time, keep your ears open for the Buzz Around the Bullpen.

Sportsjudge.com PTI: NFL Predictions

This is the time of year when football fans really start to itch for the beginning of a new season. The teams are in camp and we can smell the new season right around the corner. This week Adam and Chris give their NFL predictions for the Super Bowl, MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookies of the Year, and Division Winners.

Adam

Super Bowl- Steelers over Bears

The Pittsburgh Steelers lost only one starter (two key players) from last year’s team that won it all. CB Bryant McFadden bolted for the Arizona Cardinals and #3 WR Nate Robinson signed with the Titans. However, McFadden missed 6 games with injuries last season and back-up William Gay filled in admirably. The Steelers also have former starter Deshea Townsend to step in at corner. Last season the Steelers won 12 games while playing the hardest schedule in the league; this season it will be fourth easiest (the easiest for teams that don’t play the Lions twice, seriously). Also, 2-time Pro Bowl running back Willie Parker was banged up early last year and didn’t find his stride until the playoffs, first round pick Rashard Mendenhall only played four games before fracturing his shoulder and missing the season, and QB Ben Rothlisberger was playing injured early in the season before getting into a rhythm late. With a healthy backfield and an easier schedule the Steelers should return to the Super Bowl where they will face…
The Chicago Bears. The Bears always have a good defense, and that won’t change this season. Last year, rookie RB Matt Forte provided some punch to the rushing attack with 1238 yards and 8 TDs while also leading the team with 63 receptions. TE Greg Olson’s 54 catches were second on the team, and Devin Hester showed signs that he could make a successful transition from CB/KR to WR. The key to the Bears is the addition of QB Jay Cutler. This was a phenomenal trade that had to be made. While the Bears gave up a lot, if they make the Super Bowl, it will be worth it. After years of inconsistent QB play from Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton, Cutler should stabilize the position and contribute to a dramatic improvement in the Bears passing attack. If the Minnesota Vikings sign Brett Favre, they should challenge the Bears for this spot, but my pick will still be Chicago.

MVP- Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Brees will not put up 5000 yards again this season, but he should put up 4500+ with about 40-45 TDs. The difference this season will be that the Saints will win more games. Free agent signings S Darren Sharper and CB Jabari Greer will team with first round pick CB Malcolm Jenkins to man a vastly improved secondary that should help the Saints improve upon their 23rd ranked defense. Offensively, the Saints will be much healthier and deeper compared to last year. RB Reggie Bush (10 games last year), TE Jeremy Shockey (12 games), and WR Marques Colston (11 games) should be healthy to team with WRs Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, and Devery Henderson. Also, breakout RB Pierre Thomas will be a contributor all season after rushing for at least 77 yards in 5 of his last 6 games and adding 9 TDs last season. What this all means is an assortment of weapons for the NFC’s best QB. A better record stood between Drew Brees and the MVP last season, but this year, the Saints’ improved defense will lead to a playoff berth and an MVP for Brees.

Defensive Player of the Year- Julius Peppers, Carolina Panthers

Peppers has at least 10.5 sacks in 5 of his 7 seasons, and when he finally signs a contract under the franchise tag, he will be playing for a new contract. Don’t underestimate the motivation that can create. Peppers, at 6’7” and 283 pounds is one of the bigger defensive ends in the NFL, but the former Tar Heel basketball player is also one of the most athletic. Just 29 years old, Peppers is primed to explode this season. I would not be surprised to see Peppers approach 20 sacks with 50-60 tackles and 6 or 7 forced fumbles. This season, Peppers is going to return to his role as the focal point of the Panthers’ defense. With MLB Jon Beason playing behind him, Peppers should be able to rush free at the QB without worrying about run responsibility as much, and with CB Chris Gamble locking down the opponent’s #1 WR, Peppers should get a decent amount of coverage sacks as well when the pocket breaks down.

Offensive Rookie of the Year- Chris Wells, Arizona Cardinals

Offensive ROY is a three man race this year. WR Michael Crabtree is not only the best WR in this year’s draft class, but also will be the #1 WR on the 49ers roster this season. Knowshon Moreno will be the next RB in a long line of top performers at the position for the Broncos and will be the starter after a season full of injuries and inconsistencies. Finally, Chris “Beanie” Wells will be the go-to back and possibly the goal-line back for the Cardinals high powered offense. The difference between the three rookies is that Crabtree and Moreno will have to carry a large portion of the load in their offenses, but Wells will be able to rely on the passing attack of Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin. While this may limit the amount of touches Wells gets, he should also get more scoring opportunities as the Cardinals will be in the red zone much more than the Broncos and the 49ers. Last season, the Cardinals combination of Edgerrin James, Tim Hightower, and J.J. Arrington combined for 14 TDs. Wells should be the main back this season and could match that total by himself, giving him the edge over Moreno and Crabtree. Expect Wells to finish with between 800-1000 yards in addition to the touchdowns.

Defensive Rookie of the Year- Aaron Curry, Seattle Seahawks

Curry was considered the best defensive player in the draft on most draft boards validating his selection at #4 to the Seahawks. Seattle will help Curry transition to the NFL. Curry will step into the Strong-side LB role in Seattle’s 4-3 with veterans Lofa Tatupu at MLB and Leroy Hill at Weak-side LB on the opposite side. Curry’s speed and tackling ability will lead to immediate results and his mistakes will be minimized with the veteran presence around him. The vets should also help Curry acclimate himself to the NFL quicker than if he stepped into a younger, inexperienced unit. Curry should be good in run support and solid in pass coverage as well. Expect 80+ tackles with a few sacks and a few interceptions in his debut season.

AFC East- Buffalo Bills

When the Bills signed Terrell Owens, they became the team to beat in the AFC East. Even after trading Jason Peters away, they still have the look of a division champ. RBs Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson combined for 1600 yards and 11 TDs last season as one of the better 1-2 RB punches in the AFC. WRs Lee Evans (1017 yards) and Josh Reed (597 yards) have contributed production through the air in the past, but have struggled to find the end zone (4 TDs combined) when the Bills get into the red zone. TO will change that. Owens gives the Bills 25th ranked offense a legitimate red zone threat to go with a solid rushing attack and Evans deep play ability. The Bills offense should get a huge boost by adding a motivated TO to the fold. Defensively, the Bills lost CB Jabari Greer to the Saints, but still have Terrence McGee and Leodis McKelvin at the corners to go with one of the better safety combinations in the league with Donte Whitner and Ko Simpson. Aaron Schobel and Marcus Stroud should benefit from the addition of first round pick Aaron Maybin on the defensive line and LBs Kawika Mitchell and Paul Posluszny should be more familiar with the Bills defensive scheme, starting in the system for a second year. The Patriots will be tough to beat, but TO will put the Bills over the top in the division after three straight 7-9 seasons.

AFC North- Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers return 10 starters to one of the best defenses in the history of the NFL and all 11 starters on offense. Last year’s first round pick Rashard Mendenhall is healthy after an injury shortened his rookie year last year and this year’s draft class should contribute to the Steelers early. First rounder Ziggy Hood probably won’t start on the defensive line, but he should provide depth both at DE and NT. Later picks Mike Wallace (WR-3rd round) and RB Frank “The Tank” Summers could contribute early on offense and special teams as Wallace brings a sub 4.3 40 yard dash and Summers should provide toughness in the goal line offense and on special teams with his 240 pound frame. Second rounder Kraig Urbik (G-T) and seventh rounder A.Q. Shipley (C) should provide depth for an offensive line that was shaky last season. If the offensive line can improve upon their play from last season, QB Ben Rothlisberger could make his second Pro Bowl if he plays like he did in the playoffs. The Steelers will benefit from the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL next season.

AFC South- Houston Texans

This should be a good race between the Indianapolis Colts, the Tennessee Titans, and (surprise) the Houston Texans. The Titans will be competitive, but Kerry Collins won’t be able to repeat last season’s heroics and the Titans will come up short. The Texans should have an explosive offense with a healthy Matt Schaub at QB to go with RB Steve Slaton (1282 yards and 9 TDs), WR Andre Johnson (1575 yards and 8 TDs), WR Kevin Walters (899 yards and 8 TDs), and TE Owen Daniels (862 yards). Defensively, LB DeMeco Ryans (112 tackles) and DE Mario Williams (12 sacks) were both Pro Bowlers and CB Dunta Robinson will be healthy after missing 5 games last season. Through the draft, the Texans added potential impact players LB Brian Cushing and OLB/DE Connor Barwin. Both have shown the ability to rush the QB in college and both should be solid contributors on the front seven next season. Free agent signing DE Antonio Smith should be a nice addition to the D-line opposite Williams. The secondary is the weak link, but veterans Nick Ferguson and Eugene Wilson should be able to minimize mistakes and get enough stops to give the Texans’ high powered offense the opportunity to win most games. The Colts should contend for the division title as well, but the offense lost WR Marvin Harrison and RB Dominic Rhodes, and the team is starting to get older. QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai, and WR Reggie Wayne will anchor a potentially explosive offense and DE Dwight Freeney will lead a solid defense, but the Texans will surprise them and take the division.

AFC West- San Diego Chargers

Although the Chargers were just 8-8 last season, they still won the division. The AFC West may be the weakest division in the NFL and the Chargers were a few close calls away from running away with it last season. The Chargers lost their first two games of the season late by a combined 3 points. Of their 6 other losses, 5 were within 7 points or less including a 1 point loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers with less than a minute left. The return of LB Shawne Merriman (39.5 sacks the previous two seasons) to the defense after playing just one game last season should provide a big boost to the 25th ranked defense. After a down season (if you can call 1110 yards a down season), LaDanian Tomlinson should return to form and provide a more consistent running attack for Philip Rivers. Back-up Darren Sproles should be effective as the change of pace back, as former Charger Michael Turner did for LT prior to last season. In this weak division, the Chargers should win the division with at least 3 weeks remaining in the season.

NFC East- Dallas Cowboys

Everyone in the NFC East has a chance to win the division or simply make the playoffs, but the Cowboys made the most meaningful changes this offseason. The Eagles are going to miss the leadership and ability of Brian Dawkins on defense, and the Giants will miss Plaxico Burress more than they think they will. Meanwhile, the Cowboys cleaned the locker room of any potential attitude problems. RB Marion Barber will show vast improvement next season as he returns to a 4.5+ yards per carry average. The return of last year’s first round pick Felix Jones will also give the Cowboys a thunder and lightning type of RB rotation to rival the NY Giants. WR Roy Williams will make the Pro Bowl after learning the offense last season, and WRs Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin will continue to provide QB Tony Romo with reliable targets. TE Jason Witten is one of the best in the game both at blocking and receiving. Defensively, DeMarcus Ware, Bradie James, Jay Ratliff, and Greg Ellis combined for almost 45 sacks last season and CB Terrence Newman and FS Ken Hamlin anchor a slid secondary that operates with minimal pressure due to the pass rush put on by the front seven. While the Coqboys will win the division, don’t be surprised if QB Romo still can’t find a way to pull out a win in the playoffs.

NFC North- Chicago Bears

In what could be the best division in the NFL next season, the Bears will hold off the Vikings and the Green Bay Packers to win the division on their way to the Super Bowl. In a battle of good QBs, Jay Cutler of the Bears will outplay other QB standouts Brett Favre (assuming he signs with the Vikings) and the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers. All three teams could make the playoffs, but the Packers don’t have the consistent rushing attack the Vikings and Bears have, and Cutler will be more stable than Favre at QB to give the Bears the edge.

NFC South- Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have the best rushing attack in the NFL with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart splitting carries. Both are Pro Bowl caliber RBs and combined for 2300+ yards and 28 TDs last season. Even if Jake Delhomme continues to play inconsistently, the RB tandem will hide his deficiencies. WR Steve Smith (1421 yards in 14 games) is one of the most explosive players in the NFL and veteran #2 wideout Mushin Muhammad (923) is still a solid WR that can contribute. Defensively, the Panthers have Pro Bowl players at all three levels of the defense with DE Julius Peppers anchoring the D-line, Jon Beason leading a LB corps that also includes standout Thomas Davis, and CB Chris Gamble providing leadership in the secondary. The Panthers have Pro Bowl potential all over the roster and should make a run at the Super Bowl again this season.

NFC West- Arizona Cardinals

Losing Edgerrin James should not hurt the Cardinals that much, especially with the addition of Beanie Wells to split carries with Tim Hightower. Defensively, the Cardinals added Bryant McFadden to the secondary and drafted DE Cody Brown in the second round for depth on the defensive line. The biggest obstacle to the Cardinals second straight division title is three contract holdouts, not any other teams in the division. Darnell Docket and Karlos Dansby on defense and WR Anquan Boldin are all threatening to hold out this offseason. All three were key contributors during last season’s run to the Super Bowl. In the end, all three will be pacified with new contracts or promises to renegotiate and the Cardinals will return almost entirely intact for another run at the postseason.

Chris

MVP – Peyton Manning. There is no player in football that is more valuable to his squad year in and year out than Mr. Endorsement himself. Manning is like a coach behind the center, and he is an intimidator to defenses, especially when he screams things like “Your defense is offensive,” and “Cut that meat.”

Defensive Player of the Year – James Harrison. I think this guy refuses to go to White House visits because he doesn’t want anyone to get a leg up on him during the off season. He would rather be throwing tires around and running wind sprints than rubbing elbows with Obama.

Super Bowl Prediction - Indianapolis Colts defeat Green Bay Packers. I think Green Bay has the weapons to get to the big show, but in the end Peyton Manning has too much firepower for Aaron Rodgers and the young Packers squad.

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Knowshon Moreno. Plug a running back into the Denver offense and you have an automatic superstar. I think Moreno edges out Michael Crabtree for the Rookie of the Year.

Defensive Rookie of the Year - B. J. Raji. The new addition to the Packers front line should be instant help to their run defense, and Raji has the opportunity to turn some heads from day one in Green Bay.

NFC East – New York Giants

The Giants have the ability to run all over opposing defenses, and they should have another good season. I am tempted to take Dallas here after they cleaned house (losing TO, Tank Johnson, and PacMan Jones), but they were the choke artists of the year last season, so I can’t put much faith in them.

NFC North – Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers has a full year of experience under his belt and should be a better leader this season. He had a superb year last season and should have another stellar year. The defense was the main problem last year for the Pack, as opposing running backs ran all over them. They switched their D to a 3-4 and added 2 key starters during the draft in B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews.

NFC South – Carolina Panthers

Coming off a 12-4 year and the division title last season, the Panthers are looking to repeat in the NFC South. The Carolina running game was unstoppable for most of last year, and if they can get DeAngelo Williams going again, it should be a great year for Carolina.

NFC West – Arizona Cardinals

Perhaps the worst division in football gave us the NFC Super Bowl contender Cardinals last year, despite going 9-7. Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin hope to carry their offensive momentum into this year. They shouldn’t have much competition in this division.

AFC East – New England Patriots

With Brady back, the Pats look to avenge their playoff snub from last year. Miami won the division last year even though both teams had an 11-5 record. The weapons the Patriots have make them a clear favorite in this division.

AFC North – Pittsburgh Steelers

Big Ben and the boys look to defend their title this year, but they will be challenged by Baltimore at the top of this division. The Browns and Bengals shouldn’t pose any problems, and the Steelers are my pick to win the division.

AFC South – Indianapolis Colts

I like the Peyton Manning and the Colts to win this division, and make some serious noise in the playoffs. Tennessee is a tough team, but I think Indy has their number this season. I think the Colts go all the way to the Super Bowl this year.

AFC West – San Diego Chargers

The Jay Cutlerless Broncos are a wild card, and the rest of the division is sub-par. I like LT and Phillip Rivers to take the AFC West Title. Despite coming off of an 8-8 season, this team could surprise some people this year.

Fantasy NASCAR: Coca Cola 600

This race is one of my favorite races of the year. It is the longest race distance wise and it comes on the heels of the Indy 500 in the afternoon. A couple years ago drivers such as Tony Stewart and Robby Gordon used to attempt to race both the Indy 500 in the afternoon and then fly to Charlotte to race the Coca Cola 600. A total of 1100 miles in the day. For me this race kicks off summer. It's Memorial Day weekend and it's time to go racing.

We saw last weekend in the All-Star event Tony Stewart capture victory in an exciting race to the finish. It served as a practice run for every team to see how their car would handle at night and allowed them to make the right adjustments before this weekend.

This race will test a driver's abilities and endurance. During the pit stops drivers will be topping off their gas tanks as well as grabbing a bite to eat periodically. It gives a whole new meaning to "Fast Food". Over the 50 year track history, no Toyota has won a Sprint Cup Race. Toyota has claimed victory in the Nationwide Series but never in the big show. Could things change this weekend at the 1.5 mile track? Here are my top 5 drivers for Sunday night's race.

1. Tony Stewart- When you are on a roll and you've just won $1 million, you don't go against the best horse. Stewart just celebrated his 38th birthday and a great way for him to celebrate would to bring home his first official victory for his race team, Stewart-Haas Racing. Stewart now has 8 top 10 finishes in 11 races this year and will continue his hot streak on Sunday. The winner of the All-Star race has gone on to win the Coca-Cola 600 six times, most recently Kasey Kahne last year.

2. Jimmie Johnson- It seems as if every track the series stops at, Jimmie Johnson is one of the active all-time points leaders at that track. Johnson won here 5 times in a 6 race span from 2003-05. He knows this track and his average finish over the last 10 races here is 7.7. Johnson starts 5th and was 2nd quickest in practice.

3. Ryan Newman- If you saw the end of last week's race you'll know that Ryan Newman found his way to the top with a handful of laps remaining and probably should have won if not for the aggressive driving of Kyle Busch. You have to believe that as Tony Stewart's teammate that he is getting the same information that Tony is and that can only help him. Newman sits on the pole for Sunday night's race and was 9th quickest in the first practice run. I like him to have a great race.

4. Mark Martin- The 50-year old is doing wonders this season and is not letting up anytime soon. Martin is a savvy veteran of this track. He first won here in 1992, or in other words, when Kyle Busch was just 7-years old. What more can you say about this guy? He starts 4th and had the fastest practice session. Over the last 10 races here Martin has raced the 6th most laps, staying in contention each and every time. He is a three-time winner at Lowe's and would love to make it 4.

5. Kasey Kahne- Speaking of 3-time winners, this has to be Kahne's favorite track. 3 of his career 9 victories have come here at Lowe's Speedway including winning the Coca-Cola 600 twice. As defending champion he starts 6th on Sunday night is the only Dodge car to win here since 2003. If you aren't going to go with a Chevy driver I would sit heavily on Kasey Kahne.

First to Third: Contender/Pretender

On Tuesday, we took a look at which managers could feel their seat getting warm and found four managers who should be concerned about their job status. Today, we'll look at a few of the early surprises of 2009 and whether their quick start makes them a contender or a pretender.

Toronto Blue Jays - Somehow, Roy Halladay (left) and ... well, honestly I can't name another Toronto starter... have Team Canada playing with the best record in the American League. Despite my inability to name another starter, the Blue Jays are doing it with their bats and lead the majors in runs scored. But honestly people do you really think the Jays can keep it up all year with the Yankees and Red Sox breathing down their neck? No way, they're not the Rays of 2009. Verdict: Pretender.

Texas Rangers - If I can't name a Toronto starter besides Halladay, can I name a Ranger starter? How 'bout Kevin Millwood, who seems to have resurrected his career with four wins and an ERA under 3.00. It also helps that they have three guys with at least 10 home runs and Michael Young hasn't missed a beat offensively since moving to third base. MVP-candidate Josh Hamilton has been hurt and if he can stay healthy, watch out! Verdict: Contender.

Milwaukee Brewers - The Brewer offense boasts a middle of the order that competes with anyone. The recent call-up of prospect Mat Gamel only boosts their lineup, despite the loss of Rickie Weeks. Veteran closer Trevor Hoffman is 10-for-10 in save chances and has only given up three hits in 11.0 innings in 2009. I still don't think they have enough pitching for a run at the division, but no one is running away with it either. Verdict: Pretender.

Atlanta Braves - Although they're presently in an unsurprising third place in the NL East, at 20-19, Atlanta is hanging right in with the Mets and Phillies, who have yet to make this a two team race. Pitching is what is helping the Braves as Derek Lowe and Javy Vazquez have pitched well. With an ERA under 2.00, Jair Jurrjens looks like a star in the making. Their offense hasn't been terrible, but I still they'll be on the outside looking in come October. Verdict: Pretender.

And Now You Know!: Color Psychology in Sports

This past weekend the Texas Rangers hosted the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and elected to wear their new red jerseys all weekend long, much to the dismay of the Angels players who prefer red on the road as opposed to their gray tops. Was it gamesmanship by the Rangers to wear their red tops? This wasn't the first time they had a "Red-Out Weekend", so maybe it was just ironic that both teams typically wear red.

The more I started thinking about the red uniforms the more it donned on me that this was more than a fashion choice in order to sell more jerseys (Red jerseys are outselling all others 5:1). This is part of a grander scheme, one that has been quietly coming forward but hardly noticed.

Why Red? It's simple. Anyone who has heard of color psychology knows that black means death, yellow-happy, green-earthy, etc. etc. But what does Red symbolize? To summarize, red is the color of intensity. Studies have shown that when one looks at red their hearts tend to beat faster, red tends to nullify other colors and if a person is wearing red they look bigger and bolder, causing intimidation. So could MLB teams be taking to other factors in baseball aside from sabermetric stats?

A common theme in sports, particularly the University of Iowa's visiting football locker room. It is painted pink. Pink helps tranquilize those who see it and makes them more peaceful. You might say it has helped the Hawkeyes to a 38-8 (.826) home record since 2002. When you look at conference foe Michigan and their record at the Big House, one of the toughest places to play, you'll see that Michigan is a mere 36-12 (.750) at home since 2002.
Back to the jersey tops in baseball. Would you be surprised if I told you that 5 of the last 7 World Series winners had red in their jersey tops as a prominent color (Phillies, Red Sox, Cardinals, Red Sox, Angels)? Now, that may not explain the Yankees and their 26 Championship rings since you couldn't find a hint of red in their stadium let alone on their jerseys. But if you go back to 1995, after the strike, 11 of the 28 teams featured in the World Series have had some amounts of Red in their jerseys.

The same cannot be said in other professional sports but maybe its because there isn't a long duration of 1-on-1 much like that of a pitcher-hitter combination. Sure there's 1-on-1 in the NBA or a DB-WR in the NFL, but for a mere few seconds at a time. I could be on to something here. Look at what the Rangers are doing this year since bringing back the red tops. Anyone want to venture to say that they make it to the World Series?

And Now You Know! (And Knowing is Half the Battle)

Who's Hot and Who's Not Around the Minor Leagues: Gerado Parra is Making it Look Easy

Parra has made an immediate impact on the Diamondbacks

At this time of year, hot performances often lead to Major League call-ups, and that is the case this week, as no less than 5 players are now either in the majors or on their way very shortly. That group is led by Gerardo Parra, who apparently has worked his way into a starting job with a smoking ‘Hot’ debut. Here’s a look at the ‘Hottest’ and ‘Nottest’ prospects over the last two weeks.

Hot Hitters –

1) Gerardo Parra, OF, ARZ – Anyone who paid attention to the Winter League performance of Parra won’t be surprised, as we named Parra our #1 Winter Wonder back in January when Parra, as the 5th youngest player in the Venezuelan Winter League, came into his own batting .329/.404/.504. Parra has never really been a free-swinger, but the difference this year is his patience at the plate, drawing 22 walks in 108 ABs before his callup. He is off to a .412/.474/.824 start with the Diamondbacks and has gone .355/.444/.645 over the last two weeks. At just 22yo, Parra is just scratching the surface of his potential.

2) Josh Vitters, 3B, CHN – If this was a one week performance list, there would be no question who would be #1, as Vitters has posted 5 straight 3-hit games and has homered in his last 4. Vitters went into the 2007 draft ranked by us as the top prep hitter (over Heyward and Moustakas), but suffered through some nagging injuries and got off to an unexpectedly slow start to his professional career. Now healthy, Midwest League (MWL) pitchers are getting the abuse. Vitters will still have to be more patient at the plate (3 BB in 132 ABs), but the 19yo has posted a .998 OPS to start the season. .422/.435/.733 over his last 45 ABs.

3) Brandon Snyder, 1B, BAL – The problem with drafting high school catchers, is rarely do they stay there. You then have to not only worry about whether their bat will play at another position, but there also is usually a transition period. Snyder is another example of just that case, after being drafted by the Orioles in the first round of the 2005 draft. Snyder seems to have things on track now as he has gone.475/.500/.925 over the last two weeks and now has a 1.060 OPS on the season.

4) Jaff Decker, OF, SDP – While it’s possible that we keep putting Decker on the list just because we like to say ‘Jaff’, it’s more probable that it has something to do with his performance. Decker is one of those bad-bodied players that scouts hate. Apparently so do MWL pitchers as Decker has a 1.062 OPS on the season. This is the third straight week that Decker has made the list, and he did it this week with a .368/.489/.711 in 49 PAs.

5) Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT – Over the last decade, the Pirates have selected at an average of the 8th position in the first round of each June’s draft. Excluding Pedro Alvarez last year, they have exactly Paul Maholm and McCutchen to show for it. McCutchen has carried the pressure bad drafts past and hasn’t always handled it well. While performing adequately, he hasn’t really posted numbers that matched the expectations—until now. After lighting up International League pitching to the tune of .400/.489/.625 over the last two weeks, McCutchen’s OPS now stands at .838 on the season. More importantly, he is walking more than striking out. Look for McCutchen to force McLouth to a corner sometime in the next month.

6) Josh Bell, 2B/3B, LAD – The Dodgers have had high hopes for Bell ever since he posted .911 OPS in the Pioneer League in 2006. But questionable work habits and a string of nagging injuries have held him back. Bell seems to have things turned around this year, as he has posted an .880 OPS to open the Southern League (SOL) season. .382/.462/.647 over the last two weeks.

7) Alexia Amarista, 2B, LAA – Amarista is a player we have been high on ever since he posted the second best age-adjusted offensive season in the DSL in 2007. At just 5’8” and 150lbs, the scouts are never going to be excited by him, but he has great strike zone management skills and should develop adequate pop for his position. Amarista has gone .378/.500/.514 over the last two weeks and the 20yo now has a .935 OPS on the season. He’ll never be a superstar, but he has more upside than Alberto Callaspo who is a similar player putting together a solid season with the Royals.

8) J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR – The Jays are looking for Arencibia, their 2007 first round pick, to assume the full-time catching duties before the season is out. Once he does, you can expect a sound defensive backstop that is likely to hit 20 HRs, but will also fan 80-100 times—he just can’t help himself from starting the count 0-1. His free swinging approach is working as of late as he has gone .333/.407/.833 with 6 HRs in his last 55 PAs.

9) Lonnie Chisenhall, SS, CLE – As we told you earlier in the season, Chisenhall is better than the experts told you before Cleveland took him at the end of the first round last June. When he entered South Carolina, he was considered the best hitter in a program that included Justin Smoak, Reese Havens and James Darnell. Unfortunately he got himself in trouble with some non-baseball related issues and went under the radar screen. The scouts will tell you that he can’t stay at SS and can’t hit enough to play 3B. I’ll tell you that he won’t stay at SS, would hit above league average at 3B, but is likely to end up as one of the better offensive 2B in the league in a very short period of time. Chisenhall has posted .381/.447/.619 over his last 50 PAs and now has a .921OPS on the season, as a 20yo in Hi-A.

10) Roger Kieschnick, OF, SFG – The Giants were able to get Kieschnick in the 3rd round in June because he posted a disappointing junior season at Texas Tech. Kieschnick is one of the best pure power hitters in the Giants system, and has beaten up California League pitching this year to the tune of a .904 OPS. He will have to develop better strike zone judgment as he moves up the ladder, but he has gone .500/.500/.844 over the last two weeks.


Hot Pitchers –

1) Kris Medlen, RHP, ATL – Tommy Hanson gets the pub, but it will be Medlen who makes his big league debut first--on Thursday night. Medlen spent his first two seasons with the Braves as a reliever, but had a break-out season in 2008 after moving into the rotation. This year he has been even better going 5-0 with a 1.19 ERA for Gwinnett. Over his last three starts he has posted a 0.64 ERA, 0.643 WHIP, with a 16:4 K:BB ratio.

2) Jeanmar Gomez, RHP, CLE – While we have been talking about him for over a month now, somehow Gomez has still flown under the radar as he has gotten off to one of the Minor’s best starts. Between two stops, the 21yo, Gomez has posted a 1.64 ERA with a .727 WHIP. A promotion to the Eastern League (ESL) hasn’t slowed him down, as he has a 0.00 ERA, 0.467 WHIP and a 13:0 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

3) Casey Crosby, LHP, DET – Tiger fans had to wait nearly two years to see what they had in Crosby after he blew out his elbow in Instructional League and cost himself all but 5 IP of the 2008 season. Making his full-season debut as 20yo in the MWL, Crosby has not disappointed. This is a tremendously athletic kid who not only has a mid-90s fastball, but has three other pitches that he is not afraid to throw at any point in the count. His upside is through the roof, and so far this season he is off to a 2.43 ERA, 1.14 WHIP start. My guess is that the Tigers focus him on three solid pitches, and that he improves his command (currently walking nearly 5 batters per 9IP), while he spends the entire season in the MWL, but he looks like a good one. 0.75 ERA, 0.667 WHIP with a 15:4 K:BB ratio over his last three starts.

4) Matt Harrison, LHP, TEX – Though technically not a prospect, Harrison is on this list because of the turnaround he has put together since making the ‘Not’ list earlier this year. Through the season’s first 4 starts Harrison had a 7.893 ERA and a 2.077 WHIP. We told you not to worry, that the track record for pitchers that had more than a 100IP before their 24th birthday was very good. Over the last two weeks, Harrison has a 1.00 ERA, a 0.556 WHIP and a 12:1 K:BB ratio, including two straight complete games.

5) Ross Detwiler, LHP, WSN – Sometimes we get them right and sometimes…not so much. We were hard on Detwiler last season, as his 4.86 ERA and 1.589 WHIP for a 22yo in Hi-A was a big disappointment. The Nationals kept the faith and have been rewarded, as Detwiler made a solid big league debut this week and has posted a 1.80 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, with a 22:1 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

6) Daniel Duffy, LHP, KCR – The 20yo Duffy is one of those guys that isn’t a scout favorite, as he has dominated the minor’s lower levels with tremendous polish more than raw stuff. So there are significant questions surrounding his upside that will only be answered by proving himself each step of the way. So far Hi-A hasn’t proved any more of a challenge for Duffy, as he has posted a 0.79 ERA, a 0.706 WHIP with a 12:1 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

7) Trevor Reckling, LHP, LAA – After posting a 3.37 ERA with a 1.263 ERA as one of the youngest pitchers in the MWL in 2008, Reckling served notice that, despite a rather pedestrian 8th round pedigree, he was a legitimate pitching prospect. Three starts is all that it took this season, to cause the Angels to promote the 19yo (he turns 20 on the 22nd of May) to AA. Now the youngest full-time starter in the Texas League (TXL), Reckling has posted a 1.59 ERA, a 0.765 WHIP with a 13:3 K:BB ratio over his last three starts. While he doesn’t have the raw stuff for the front of a big league rotation, Reckling looks like a solid bet for a mid-rotation slot.

8) Edgar Osuna, LHP, ATL – Apparently this week’s list is dominated by lefties, as Osuna makes #7. This is a big year for Osuna, as, up to this point, he has dominated the lower levels of the minors more on guile than raw stuff. He doesn’t miss as many bats as I would like to see in a pitching prospect, but none the less he has posted a 1.38 ERA, 0.385 WHIP with a 12:1 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

9) Zeke Spruill, RHP, ATL – Spruill was a ‘projectability’ pick by the Braves in the second round of last June’s draft. A mere 19 years old, he is starting to fulfill some of that projection as he is 6-0 with a 1.91 ERA on the season. A 1.13 ERA, 0.750 WHIP with a 12:2 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

10) Arquimedes Nieto, RHP, STL – The “Who’s He Award” winner for the week, Nieto was signed by the Cardinals as a 17yo out of Panama in 2007. Though just 19yo at the time, Arquimedes pitched for Panama in this Spring’s World Baseball Classic. He had a solid US debut, going 6-1 with a 2.95 ERA in the New York-Penn in 2008, and brought his extremely polished repertoire to the MWL this year. The big question surrounding Nieto, is will he find an out pitch? The Cardinals hope that, at 175lbs on his 6’0” frame, he fills out a little and gains another couple of MPH on his fastball. Nieto has posted a 0.90 ERA, 0.400 WHIP with a 9:0 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

The Nots –

1) Brandon Morrow, RHP, SEA – Not really a prospect, but at 24yo his performance is worth noting. Part of this is on Morrow and part is on the typically confused Mariner organization. Let’s get this on the record, Morrow has a huge upside and hopefully gets things straightened out quick. That being said, he has been nothing short of awful this year. I have huge questions surrounding what the Mariners are doing with their first round picks, as Morrow, Aumont and Fields all look to be being groomed for the same job, but the constant questions surrounding whether or not Morrow is a starter or a closer is taking its toll. In his last 4 appearances, Morrow has posted a 36.00 ERA, 6.00 WHIP and a 2:3 K:BB ratio.

2) Brent Lillibridge, UT, CHA – Another ‘not really a prospect’, I think it’s time to put a fork in Lillibridge, who has been a fringy prospect since his breakout season in 2006. Unfortunately, he thinks he should be the next Ryan Howard instead of trying to be more in the mold of a Brian Roberts that he is better suited for. Two teams have now tried to work with him and have given up, and with this week’s demotion on top of a .150/.150/.150 line over the last two weeks, Lillibridge just might be out of chances.

3) Wendell Fairley, OF, SFG – Is it too early to declare 20 year-old, former first round, picks a ‘bust’? My vote is not in Fairley’s case. The Giants took him in the first round of 2007, a pick that appeared odd at the time, and he didn’t make his debut until the following summer, in the Arizona League (AZL), where he posted a .725 OPS with only 2 HRs in nearly 200 ABs. This year he has gotten off to a .217/.308/.293 start with 1 HR in over 100 PAs. More troublesome is his strikeout rate which is greater than once every 3 ABs. He’s gone .125/.160/.167 over the last two weeks.

4) Anthony Ortega, LAA – Calling up Ortega when they did, seemed to be a strange move by the Angels. Now a demotion and trip to the DL makes the move even more questionable. For my money, he just doesn’t have starter stuff. A 15.63 ERA, 2.684 WHIP and a 3:4 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

5) Jeremy Jeffress, MIL – Jeffres is a repeater from last week’s list and all of what we said then still applies. Four seasons into his professional career, Jeffress is still more thrower than pitcher. He is walking nearly 11 batters per 9IP. That’s earned him a demotion to Hi-A. He’s posted a 13.00 ERA, a 2.889 WHIP with a 8:16 K:BB ratio over his last three starts. If I am a Brewer fan, I am not counting on ever seeing him in Milwaukee.

6) Nick Schmidt, LHP, SDP – The Padres first round pick in 2007, Schmidt missed all of last season after Tommy John surgery. Working his way back has proved difficult thus far. A 9.82 ERA, 3.00 WHIP with a 6:6 K:BB ratio over his last three starts leaves his ERA at 6.64 on the year. At 23yo, and struggling in Lo-A, things aren’t looking good.

7) Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, FLA – It’s turning out to be two abysmal seasons in a row for the Marlins’ 2006 1st round pick. Since Sinkbeil began facing full-season hitters, they have lit him up with a batting average against greater than .300. A 9.64 ERA, 2.643 WHIP with a 8:11 K:BB ratio leaves Sinkbeil with a 10.29 ERA on the year.

8) Francisco Pena, C, NYM – It’s hard to imagine that entering the 2007 season, there were those that believed Pena was a better prospect than Jesus Montero. Two years later it isn’t even close. Pena has gone .120/.154/.120 over the last two weeks and now has a .561 OPS on the year. At just 19yo, and in the Florida State League, Pena has plenty of time to get things on track, but right now it just isn’t working.

9) Jefry Marte, 3B, NYM – Marte is another Met prospect that appears to be being pushed too fast. A .093/.133/.186 over his last 45 PAs leaves Marte with a .536 OPS on the year and a yearning for the NYP season to open.

10) Juan Ramirez, RHP, SEA – Ramirez is still a pitching prospect with a tremendous upside, but the 20yo is finding out what so many others have before him—the California League is a tough place to pitch. Ramirez has a 7.90 ERA, 2.049 WHIP and a 12:5 K:BB ratio over his last three starts. He was pitching better before he started calling himself as J.C.

Fantasy Baseball Dispute No. 3183-T: Court Approves Trade of Reyes & Valverde for Vazquez, Peralta & N. Cruz

SPORTSJUDGE.COM

COURT OF FANTASY BASEBALL

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -	x	Index No. 3183-T Date: May 21, 2009 League Type: 11-Team MIXED 5x5 Roto Dispute: Trade Review Judge: Brett Smiley
COMMISSIONER OF BALLS AND STRIKES LEAGUE Petitioner, - against - DURO SIN VASE IN YOUR GRILL!! and 2SWEET 4LIFE, Respondents.	: : : : : : : : : :
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -	X

Petitioner, by and on behalf of the members of Balls and Strikes League seeks review of a trade that was executed between Respondents Duro Sin Vase in your grill!! and 2SWEET 4LIFE. The league should allow the trade of Jose Reyes (NYM, SS) and Jose Valverde (HOU, RP) for Javier Vazquez (ATL, SP), Jhonny Peralta (CLE, SS) and Nelson Cruz (TEX, OF) for the reasons set forth below.

THE LAW & BACKGROUND

In the absence of a league constitution stating a contrary rule, this Court applies a standard that asks whether a trade adequately benefits each of the teams (See Public Opinion No. 101, Big Red Rockers v. Big City Bombers). Where a trade could realistically enable both teams to move up in the standings, it is presumed that both teams adequately benefit (See Unpublished Opinion No. 468-T, Balls & Strikes League v. Ever-Lastings and 2 Legit 2 Quit). Indeed this league well knows this Court’s standard of review.

In examining whether a team derives some benefit from a trade, the standard requires the Court to consider not only the quality of the players, but also the context of the trade. In addition, one of the fundamental rules that this court honors is that each owner/manager in a league, by virtue of their participation in a league, has the discretion to manage their team as he sees fit. Trades between teams on opposite ends of standings are always highly scrutinized by league members—and rightfully so. And while struggling teams should actively seek to improve through trade, those teams are not excused to make objectionable trades.

Nonetheless, in this Court’s view, this particular trade is not unreasonable and satisfies the adequately beneficial standard. The trade must be upheld.

THE PROPOSED TRADE

The proposed trade is a 3-for-2 swap, as follows:

Duro Sin Vase in your grill!! proposes to send to 2Sweet 4Life (current 2009 statistics in parentheses):

• Javier Vazquez (ATL, SP) (4 wins, 73K, 3.39 ERA, 1.10 WHIP)
• Jhonny Peralta (CLE, SS) (15 runs, 1 HR, 17 RBI, .264 Avg.)
• Nelson Cruz (TEX, OF) (19 runs, 8 HR, 23 RBI, 4 SB, .271 Avg.)

2Sweet 4Life proposes to send to Duro Sin Vase in your grill!! (current 2009 statistics in parentheses):

• Jose Reyes (NYM, SS) (18 runs, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB, .279 Avg.)
• Jose Valverde (HOU, RP) (0 wins, 2 SV, 11K, 5.63 ERA, 1.25 WHIP)

ANALYSIS & DISCUSSION

Most would agree that the “best player in the trade” is Jose Reyes. Most people would be right. He remains a consensus first round draft pick. He has shown to be streaky at times, but in a rotisserie league such as this one, that matters little. Reyes’ stolen bases are there, but the rest of his numbers have not caught up yet this season. The Court takes judicial notice of the fact that the trade was executed prior to the news that Reyes re-aggravated a calf injury, and does not factor that into its decision.

Meanwhile, Javier Vazquez has been very successful so far in his first year with Atlanta. Maybe it’s the National League hitters, or maybe it’s just the raucous fans in Atlanta. In any event, his K/9 ratio is outstanding and the ratios are solid. Elsewhere, Peralta has been underachieving based on his numbers from last year where he hit 23 home runs and recorded 89 RBI to go along with a .276 batting average. Nelson Cruz was pegged by many to have a “breakout year” and after getting off to a torrid start he’s cooled off quite a bit. But the season is still young. As for Valverde, he should return to his closer role upon his return (although LaTroy Hawkins has been serviceable in his stead), although Rotowire.com reports that “Valverde's ETA is still several weeks away. Don't expect to see him on the hill until mid-June at the earliest.”

Here, 2SWEET 4LIFE is ranked third to last K’s and WHIP; he’s sixth in wins and next to last in ERA. Based on that alone, and considering the league’s rules limiting a team’s starting pitcher starts to 180 (making quality count much more than quantity), and upon reviewing 2SWEET’s roster, it appears he needs a solid starting pitcher. Vazquez would help him out immensely and should boost his position in each of the aforementioned pitching categories. 2SWEET is already third-to-last in stolen bases, and so the loss of Reyes, whose greatest contribution is stolen bases, would have a marginal effect on 2SWEET’s position there. 2SWEET is clearly addressing his greatest need.

In addition, 2SWEET gets Peralta who will aid his power if the Indians slugging infielder, as expected, eventually manages to get himself going. Nelson Cruz should contribute at utility as well. When Manny returns from his estrogen-use hiatus it might put 2SWEET in a position to move an OF. And Valverde is no sure thing to get healthy and finish the year as closer, either. But the deal would leave 2SWEET with only one actual closer and two speculative, used-to-be closers. The loss of Valverde has questionable impact.

Some might argue that 2SWEET “could have gotten more” for Reyes. Maybe that’s true, but maybe it’s not. An owner can’t pull teeth and is entitled to make the moves he sees fit to alter his team into a more competitive squad. All in all, this Court feels that this trade is adequately beneficial to both teams.

HOLDING

For all of these reasons, the league should uphold the trade.