Trade Deadline Wrap-up: Martinez is the Biggest Name to Change Addresses

Martinez makes the Red Sox the AL favorites

In the end, Roy Halladay is still a Blue Jay. The Mariners didn’t become sellers and move King Felix. And apparently the Padres weren’t wowed enough to deal Adrian Gonzalez. No, in the end, while the White Sox may have pulled off the day's biggest surprise, it was Boston who made the headlines, coming away with the biggest prize, in a deal that made perfect sense. Here is our take on the final deadline deals.

Boston acquires: Victor Martinez
Cleveland acquires: Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price
I doubt that there has been a deal this year that makes more sense for a team than this does for Boston. With Mike Lowell, Jason Varitek and David Ortiz all in the twilight of their career, the 30yo Martinez provides all-star insurance at all three positions (as Youkilis can slide over to 3B). The only losers in this deal appear to be, Casey Kotchman (who comes to Boston in a deal for Adam LaRoche), who seems relegated to occasional pinch hitter, and Lowell who is likely to see his playing time cut in half. Perhaps more importantly, the Red Sox didn’t have to give up Buchholz, Bard, Bowden, Anderson or Kelly—all of whom I like better to get the deal. In Masterson and Hagadaone, they did relinquish significant players, but it didn’t cost them nearly as much as it could have or perhaps should have.

As I mentioned a yesterday, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez were on their way out of Cleveland. And the thing Cleveland needed most was young arms. I would have liked this deal better for the Tribe if it had included Buchholz instead of Masterson or Hagadone, my assumption is that they would have too and couldn’t pull it off. The centerpiece to the deal for Cleveland is 24yo, right-hander, Justin Masterson, who immediately becomes the Tribes’ best starter. In two seasons with Boston, in a mixed role, Masterson has posted a 3.77 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP. While Masterson is the centerpiece to the deal, it will be the 23yo left-hander, Nick Hagadone, who will decide Cleveland’s fate in this deal. Hagadone was Boston’s top pick in 2007, but had Tommy John surgery which had limited him to 34 innings entering the season. When healthy, and he still is recovering, he has a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and plus pitches in both his slider and change. If I were the Tribe, I might have asked Boston for someone a little further away, say Stolmy Pimental, but they ended up getting 22yo, right-hander, Bryan Price. While Price does have three usable pitches, including a low-90s fastball, he is a ‘fringy’ prospect at best.

Chicago acquires: John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny
Pittsburgh acquires: Jose Ascanio, Kevin Hart and Josh Harrison
With Sean Marshall the only lefty in the Cubs’ pen, they picked up a left-handed reliever…sort of. Grabow actually is harder on right-handed hitters than he is on left-handed ones. In fact, he is only marginal, at best, against lefties. He has a tendency to walk too many batters, and other than throwing with the ‘south’ paw, I am not sure he will provide the Cubs any more than they had in Ascaino or Hart. Where the Cubs did seem to make out, is in bringing left-handed starter Tommy Gorzelanny back home to Chicago. After impressive 2006 and 2007 seasons in the Majors, the 26yo Gorzelanny fell apart last season and found himself in AAA this year, where he has posted some impressive numbers (certainly good enough to have been in the Pirates rotation), a 2.48 ERA, a 1.184 WHIP, with a 85:30 K:BB ratio. With both Ted Lily and Ryan Dempster ailing, the Cubs should be able to slip him into the rotation for a while, and then may want to consider using him as a lefty out of the pen. While it is certainly no guarantee, if Gorzelanny returns to form, he is by far the best player in the deal.

In return, the Pirates get more spare parts. The best of the lot appears to be 24yo, RHP, Jose Ascanio. Ascanio has posted solid numbers in the Pacific Coast (PCL) this year and seems to have enough ‘stuff’ to be a solid Major League middle reliever. In 26yo Kevin Hart, the Pirates are getting a right-hander that the Cubs never seemed to find the right slot for. To me, Hart is a two–pitch pitcher—a mid-90s fastball, and a dazzling cut fastball, that should be exclusively used as a 7th/8th inning guy. If the Pirates use him in that role, he could have a productive Big League career. 22yo Harrison is a ‘fringy’ prospect, at best. He destroyed Midwest (MWL) League pitchers earlier this year, but at 22yo that is the expectation. A move to the Florida State (FSL) League hasn’t been quite as attention getting, but the numbers have been solid. With the Cubs he has been playing both 3B and 2B, but long-term he doesn’t appear to have the arm for 3B. He is still somewhat behind on the developmental curve, so there is little to get excited about.


Detroit acquires: Jarrod Washburn
Seattle acquires: Luke French and Mauricio Robles
The Tigers essentially trade French out of the rotation and replace him with Washburn. While Washburn has had a relatively marginal professional career, this season has seen him experience somewhat of a revival, and he certainly is an upgrade over French, and likely makes Armando Gallarraga the 5th starter. This is a significant move, as it looks to be plenty to hold the Twins and White Sox off in the A.L. Central. Anytime you can make a move like that it is a ‘win’.

The Mariners actually did alright in this as well. Washburn was probably out of Seattle after the season, and all that they were likely to receive was a supplemental round pick as compensation. Luke French, is likely just as valuable. While French’s ‘stuff’ is never going to blow anyone away, the 23yo lefty has pitched well enough this season to make one believe he can be a serviceable back-of-the rotation starter, or, at worst case, a middle reliever. While relatively little known entering this season, the 20yo lefty, Robles, has turned heads this year by fanning 111 in 91 innings between the MWL and FSL. His fastball can sit in the mid-90s, and his secondary offerings are ‘improving’. The downside is that at a slight, 5’10”, there are concerns as to whether his frame will allow much projection. Consider him a high risk/reward type prospect.

Chicago White Sox acquire: Jake Peavy
San Diego Padres acquire: Aaron Poreda, Dexter Carter, Adam Russell and Clayton Richard
When one thinks about the names that were being thrown around for Peavy in May, this looks like a steal. You have to assume that the White Sox intend to pay Peavy long-term, since they parted with Poreda, because Peavy is likely to only be back for 5 or 6 starts this season. Even when he returns, there is no guarantee at what level he will return after missing nearly 3 months. While I don’t see this as a significant deal for 2009, adding him to the rotation in 2010 os certainly significant.

The 22yo, LHP, Poreda is clearly the center piece in this deal. However, we feel that Poreda is essentially a two-pitch pitcher that is best suited for a bullpen role. Our guess is that Poreda will be given a shot in the miserable Padre rotation, but it isn’t likely to be his final destination. Our guess is also that the Padres felt they were getting something of value in the 25yo, LHP, Clayton Richard. We will beg to differ on that as we don’t see much upside projection left in a guy who has posted a 5.15 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP over parts of two Major League seasons. Our perspective is that the 22yo RHP, Dexter Carter, is the only other player in the deal with any value. After making Carter their 13th round pick in 2008, he led the Pioneer (PIO) League in ERA in his debut and has a 3.13 ERA, with 143 Ks in 118 innings in the SAL this year. Carter has a low-90s fastball with late movement and a knee-buckling curve, that has eaten up SAL hitters this season. At 22yo, we would like to see him challenged more by the Padres to truly get a read on his upside. The 26yo Russell is little more than a warm-body.

Minnesota acquires: Orlando Cabrera
Oakland acquires: Tyler Ladendorf
Picking up the 34yo Cabrera has to be considered an upgrade to the SS position for the Twins. Cabrera got off to a slow start this year, but has hit .373/.397/.500 in July. While the move helps their chances, they are really only competing against the Tigers, as the wildcard is out of reach, and the Tigers seemed to have helped themselves more today with the Washburn acquisition. The good news is that it didn’t cost them much.

In Ladendorf, the Athletics are getting a 21yo SS, whom the Twins drafted in the 2nd round last year, and still only has 60 ABs in full-season ball. We felt the Twins reached in selecting him when they did, and aren’t significantly more impressed with him now. One has to feel that the A’s could have gotten more.

Florida acquires: Nick Johnson
Washington acquires: Aaron Thompson
This is a pretty good deal for the Marlins, as they get an everyday 1Bmen with a plus .800 OPS and get to sit Bonafacio. As an offensive upgrade, it is likely 2-3 games in the win column.

In Thompson, the Nationals are getting a 22yo, former first round, left-hander, who hasn’t really lived up to expectations. At this point, you have to consider the Thompson, who lacks any true out pitch, a marginal prospect. This obviously was nothing more than a salary dump by a team that isn’t likely to be competitive for at least a couple of years.

First to Third: New York Times "Outs" David Ortiz

David Ortiz became the latest MLB star to become linked with performance-enhancing drugs as the New York Times revealed that Ortiz tested positive as part of MLB's survey drug testing in 2003. Ortiz joins Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, and Manny Ramirez, whose name was also released today, as the big name players outed from the 2003 list. There were 104 names on that list and we probably still have about 90 unknowns left.

As a fan, I'm pretty tired of reading about two players every several weeks/months/years that purportedly violated league rules. Let's face it: these names will come out, no matter if that's right or wrong (Editor's Note: the general position of SportsJudge.com goes even further and recognizes that the release of such names might even be illegal).

If sources such as The New York Times are not going to respect the confidentiality stipulation of the 2003 steroid testing, they should at least release all the names at once, rather than by piecemeal.

This won't make the steroid era go away. However, it will at least let us move on, and know the entire truth rather than just pieces of it.

Hossa Contract Under Review By NHL

Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun is reporting that the structure of Marian Hossa's 12-year $62.8 million contract with the Chicago Blackhawks is under investigation by the NHL. In early February, we took a look at a growing problem in the NHL when it comes to front loading long-term contracts as a way to circumvent the restrictions of the salary cap:

As teams begin to pick up on this strategy, many GM's will attempt to lock up middle-aged talent to extensive contracts in an effort to free up additional cap space...This trend is only beginning and has the potential to cause a major problem for the league down the road, which commissioner Gary Bettman cannot be thrilled about.

Hossa's deal obviously pushed Bettman and league officials over the edge. Under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, the annual salary cap hit for player contracts is merely the average yearly amount of the total contract. According to CapGeek.com Hossa's $62.8 million contract breaks down as follows:

2009-10: $7.9 million
2010-11: $7.9 million
2011-12: $7.9 million
2012-13: $7.9 million
2013-14: $7.9 million
2014-15: $7.9 million
2015-16: $7.9 million
2016-17: $4.0 million
2017-18: $1.0 million
2018-19: $1.0 million
2019-20: $750k
2020-21: $750k

The Blackhawks will have an annualized cap hit of $5.23 million throughout the duration of the contract. However, after closer examination, Hossa will earn $59.3 million of his money in the first eight years of the deal. If following the 2016-2017 season, the Blackhawks decide to part ways with the 38-year-old Slovakian winger, they can buy out the final four years of his contract at two-thirds of the remaining total salary of $3.5 million. What makes this situation even more beneficial to Chicago is that the buyout money is paid out over twice the remaining years of the bought out contract. This amounts to a blip on the radar of $290k a year. If Hossa were to retire at any time, both sides walk away from the deal with no lingering cap hit at all to the Hawks.

Garrioch quoted NHL Deputy Commissioner from an email in which Daly wrote:

“We’re trying to understand how it was negotiated and whether the intent and effect is to circumvent the cap. This was the first of the long-term contracts that took a player out past the age 40 and the value of the contract in its ‘out years’ was dramatically lower than its early years. We want to know if the possibility of player retirement was ever discussed or even contemplated.”

Unless Hossa received the secret formula to 47-year-old defenseman Chris Chelios' longevity last season while in Detroit, it's hard to imagine he'll ever end up playing out the final years of his current deal. According to QuantHockey.com, only 1.06% of NHL forwards in league history have retired after the magic age of 38 referenced above. For a player with numerous knee injuries in his past and who last week underwent shoulder surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff, my money won't be on Hossa to land in that 1.06%.

From a realistic perspective, it's hard to imagine the NHL's investigation uncovering proof to substantiate their concerns. This is more than likely a warning shot being fired by the NHL in an attempt to clamp down on the long-term contracts and perhaps posturing for an overhaul when the CBA will potentially reopen just two summers from now.

On the other hand, the Chicago Blackhawks haven't exactly had the most efficient month of July. GM Dale Tallon dropped the ball and failed to get qualifying offers to a slew of restricted free agents by the July 1 deadline...a mistake which some claim cost him his job just days later. Reports also surfaced recently that Chicago failed to give Hossa a physical prior to signing him to his contract and may have been unaware of his shoulder injury at the time. Whether there's a note in Marian's locker than says "Remember to Retire in 2017" remains to be seen, but the battle over this salary cap shell game is not going away any time soon.

Trades, Trades, Everywhere: Finding the Winners and Losers in Deadline Deals

To date, Cliff Lee is the biggest name changing uniforms

Getting into the final hours of the trade deadline the action is happening at a relatively furious pace. Here’s our look at a few of the more significant recent deals.

Phillies acquire: Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco
Indians acquire: Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, Jason Donald and Lou Marson

With declining attendance numbers and an ever increasing gap between themselves and the top teams in the AL Central, the Indians faced the possibility of losing both Lee and Victor Martinez after the 2010 season. It seems unlikely they will be able to afford to resign them, so dealing them both seems to be a logical path. Their minor league system has some solid bats, but the Tribe desperately needs arms, at both the Major and Minor League levels. Carrasco is the center piece of this deal, as we had him rated #53 in our mid season Top 100. He is a 22yo that has put up reasonable numbers in the International (INT) League. He projects to be a solid mid-rotation starter that should join the Indians rotation sometime later this year. Jason Knapp is the next most interesting part of the deal. An 18yo, hard throwing, righty, Knapp has fanned 111 in 85 South Atlantic (SAL) League innings this season, but has thrown less than 1 inning since the 6th of July because of ‘arm fatigue’. There is significant projection in Knapp, but it comes at considerable risk. Jason Donald is a solid 24yo SS prospect with a questionable bat…the type of player that has defensive utility specialist written all over him. We have never been tremendously high on him. Likewise Lou Marson. A 23yo Catcher putting up decent numbers in the INT, Marson has the upside of a League Average backstop. We’d expect him to end up as Carlos Santana’s caddy once Victor Martinez is dealt. All told it was a reasonable hall for Lee, but we would have tried to hold out for more quality than the quantity.

The Phillies on the other hand were able to acquire a front of the rotation starter in Lee, and a solid 4th OF in Francisco…and they did it without touching any of their top 3 prospects. They not only become a solid favorite to win the National League pennant, but they keep their minor league strength. In fact, they still have all of the pieces that the Blue Jays coveted for Roy Halladay. Don’t expect that deal to take place now, but I think it is a significant point of reference as to how good of a deal this was for the Phillies. Expect Lee’s peripherals to suffer a little in Philadelphia, but also expect significant improvement to his 7-9 record.

Seattle Acquires: Ian Snell and Jack Wilson
Pittsburgh Acquires: Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Nathan Adcock, Brett Lorin and Aaron Pribanic

The first thing that comes to mind on this deal is…Why? To some extent it makes sense for the Pirates. Neil Huntington has been trying to get out from the Ian Snell mistake he made last year and gets to offload that contract. And losing Jack Wilson’s $7.5 million contract can only be seen as a positive. The problem with this deal for the Pirates is that they didn’t really get anything of value in return. Jeff Clement is the ‘prize’, but his career has been on a downward spiral pretty much ever since the Mariners selected him third overall in the 2005 draft. He has a bat that is playable in the Majors, but everyone involved hopefully understands that he isn’t an everyday Major League backstop. His most likely destination is first base, but if Pedro Alvarez ends up shifting over there, don’t expect Clement to see much playing time. Clement appears unlikely to ever see Major League average performance levels. In Ronny Cedeno the Pirates are getting a poor man’s Jack Wilson—and that’s not saying a lot. While Cedeno likely moves into an everyday SS role with the Pirates, he likely becomes the worst starting SS in the Majors. In Adcock, Lorin and Pribanic, the Pirates are getting little more than warm bodies. Lorin has the most upside, but as a 22yo, RHP, with solid numbers in the Midwest (MWL) League, he can be described as a ‘fringy’ prospect at best. He has the raw stuff to be successful, but until he has some success at higher levels, we aren’t excited. Losing Snell’s and Wilson’s contracts makes this a win for the Pirates, regardless of what they got in return.

The really questionable side of this deal, however, is the Mariner’s side. In case they haven’t realized it yet, they won’t be catching either the Rangers or the Angels this year, as both of those teams should have better second halves than first. They should be sellers—not buyers. While Snell may add depth to their rotation, Jack Wilson isn’t as good a SS as Yuniesky Betancourt, who they couldn’t wait to get rid of. It just isn’t a deal that seems to have any logic for the Mariners.

San Francisco acquires: Freddy Sanchez
Pittsburgh acquires: Tim Alderson

The acquisition of Sanchez certainly solidifies the Giants lineup, as Sanchez should slide into the 2B position—forcing Uribe to a more suitable reserve role. But…short of another Giant deal before the deadline, this appears to be a deal that will only have marginal impact on their offense. The Giants aren’t going to catch the Dodgers, so this is a deal to keep them ahead of the Rockies, Cubs, Cardinals, Marlins and Braves for the wildcard spot. And in giving up Alderson, the Giants have now dealt two of their three best Minor League pitchers (Scott Barnes) over the last week. Personally, it is hard to believe this deal was a significant enough near-term improvement to make it worth parting with Alderson.

The Pirates appear to be the clear winners here, as Alderson is a large, projectable, right-hander, who would now seem poised to become a mainstay of the Pirate rotation sometime early next year. Alderson has tremendous command of a four-pitch repertoire, of which a tremendous breaking curve ball is his best pitch. His velocity has been down slightly this year, perhaps prompting the Giants willingness to deal him, but he is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball and should turn into a solid #2/#3 Big League starter for years to come. Something that you won’t hear me say very often—this looks to be an excellent move by the Pirates.

Los Angeles Dodgers acquire: George Sherrill
Baltimore acquires: Josh Bell and Steve Johnson

This is one of those rare deals that looks good for both sides. The Dodgers acquire a solid left-handed arm for their bullpen. Sherrill should become Broxton’s main set-up guy and make the Dodgers an overwhelming favorite in the NL West and a significant contender for the National League pennant.

The Orioles are clearly in a rebuilding mode, and in Bell and Johnson that get solid prospect additions. Bell is in the midst of having a breakout season, posting an .883 OPS in the Southern (SOL) League—as a 22yo. Bell is athletically gifted, plays solid enough defense for 3B, and has a major league capable bat. Steve Johnson is a 21yo, right-hander, who is having a fantastic season, posting a 3.61 ERA and fanning 117 in 107 innings between stops in the California (CAL) League and SOL. Johnson may eventually end up in a Major League bullpen, but he has the upside of a back of the rotation starter.

Who’s Hot and Who’s Not Around the Minor Leagues: Braves’ Heyward Now Minor’s Best

Heyward is putting up numbers for a 19yo in AA that haven't been seen in more than a decade

When Matt Wieters and David Price were called up within a week of each other, at the end of May, the question became ‘who is now the best prospect in the Minor Leagues?’ Regular readers will recall that I listed 10 players who were in contention for that title, stating that it was a real toss-up among the ten. In a coin flip, I gave the edge to Jarrod Parker over Jason Heyward and Madison Bumgarner. Two months later, a clear #1 has emerged from the group, as Jason Heyward is putting up nearly unimaginable numbers in the Southern (SOL) League. Through his first 20 SOL games, Heyward has posted a 1.295 OPS—as a 19yo. Over the last 20 years, only 17 players have had 100 or more ABs in the SOL as a 19yo or younger. Only three of those have posted an OPS higher than .900…only 4 have even posted an .800 OPS. In fact, no 19yo or 20yo has hit .900 since 19yo Delmon Young hit .968 in 2005. One has to go all the way back to 1996, when another 19yo, Braves OF prospect, Andruw Jones, put together a 1.107 OPS, to even come close to the start Heyward is putting together for the Mississippi Braves. For that, Jason Heyward tops this week’s Hot List.

Hot Hitters –

1) Jason Heyward, OF, ATL – Heyward has clearly established himself as the Minor League’s best prospect with his 1.295 OPS through his first 20 SOL games. Over the last two weeks, he is .500/.577/.864 and looking like a future superstar. Heyward should see regular playing time in Atlanta by early 2010.

2) Carlos Santana, C, CLE – Victor Martinez is a top 5 catcher in the Major Leagues, but the Indians think enough of Santana to be actively shopping Martinez. Santana’s defense has made huge strides this season. His plate discipline is among the best in the Minors. And he is slugging .536 in the Eastern (ESL) League. Santana homered in four straight games this past week and posting a .343/.410/.857 over the last two weeks leaves him with a .935 OPS on the year.

3) Josh Bell, 3B, LAD – The 22yo Bell has cut his strike out rate nearly in half this season and is putting together a breakout season in the SOL. Credit an improved attitude and approach to the game for the changes that may finally allow him to tap into all of that potential. A .452/.540/.810 over the last two weeks gives him a .893 OPS for the season.

4) Brandon Allen, 1B, ARZ – Allen seems extremely comfortable in his Reno surroundings, following his trade for RP, Tony Pena. The struggles of May and June appear to be behind him as he has posted a .319/.407/.809 over the last two weeks and a 1.252 since being dealt to the Diamondbacks.

5) Ike Davis, 1B, NYM – Davis’ 2009 season is a great illustration as to why one shouldn’t put too much stock in a player’s post-draft debut, as Davis posted a .652 in his 2008 New York-Penn (NYP) debut and didn’t hit a single home run in 215 ABs. After going .388/.444/.714 over his last 55 PA’s, Davis now has a .929 OPS, with 7 home runs in 127 Eastern (ESL) League ABs.

6) Gabriel Noriega, SS, SEA – Signed to one of the highest bonuses ($800,000) given to a player from Venezuela in 2007, Noriega is the best defensive SS in the Mariner’s system, and one of the better defensive shortstops in the minor leagues. His ceiling is limited only by his ability to hit. In a return trip to the Appalachian (APY) League that hasn’t seemed to be much of a problem. A .513/.558/.846 over the last two weeks gives him a .950 OPS for the year.

7) Jon Gaston, OF, HOU – When a player is as hot as Gaston has been for the last month, it is difficult to continue the mantra that he really isn’t a Major League prospect. Nonetheless, that is exactly where we find ourselves in describing Gaston. He has severe defensive limitations, has huge contact problems (26% strikeout rate), is a bit old for a prospect in the California (CAL) League, and has an OPS that is .270 points lower away from Lancaster. Yet, over the last two weeks, Gaston has posted a .277/424/.872 with 7HRs, including back-to-back 2 HR games, and certainly deserves a place on this list. While we don’t expect his ‘other-wordly’ numbers to continue once he leaves the CAL, the Jethawk fans are certainly enjoying them.

8) Allen Craig, 1B, STL – A former third basemen, the Cardinals thought enough of Craig’s defense that, despite being without Troy Glaus all season, they have left Craig and his 17 home runs in Memphis all year. I guess you could say that a prospect that is defensively limited to 1B in the Cardinal system is effectively ‘blocked’. At 25yo, Craig’s opportunities are fading, so he hopes someone has noticed his .453/.500/1.038, with 9 HRs, over his last 60 PA’s.

9) Tyson Gillies, CF, SEA – Gillies is on a list with Derek Norris and teammate Alex Liddi, of position players that have put themselves on the radar screen with huge 2009 seasons. He has all of the prototypical tools that one looks for in a top of the order CF. The last two weeks have seen Gillies post a 448/.492/.569, giving him a .922 OPS for the year, and giving the Mariners a good idea of who is there future CF.

10) Dayan Viciedo, 3B, CHA – Watching Cuban players adjust to American baseball over the last few years has caused me to believe in two important tenants: 1) They tend to be notoriously slow starters—especially until the weather warms and 2) They require one-half to one-full season to get acclimated. Viciedo’s OPS has gone from .518 in April, to .711 in May, to .724 in June, and .769 in July, with a .381/.395/.571 over the last two weeks. What’s more is that his defense at 3B has been surprisingly adequate. Maybe even more impressive is that his strikeout rate was over 22% for the first two months of the season and just a bit over 11% for the last two. Remember he is still just 19yo and is playing in AA. A strong finish to the season could lead to Gordon Beckham sliding over to 2B, making room for Viciedo at 3B to begin 2010.

Hot Pitchers –

1) Dan Hudson, RHP, CHA – When the White Sox’s 5th round pick from the 2008 draft fanned 90 Pioneer (PIO) League batters in 70 IP in his debut, we took notice, but chalked it up to a 21yo being in a Rookie League. When Hudson opened up the South Atlantic (SAL) League this year with a 1.23 ERA we were intrigued. After opposing hitters batted .195 against him in 8 Carolina (CAR) League starts, we felt he had potential, but after the 22yo has posted a 2.03 ERA in 7 SOL starts…we believe. Hudson has a low-90s fastball, with late movement, that befuddles left-handed hitters. His secondary offerings are improving, and he has a frame that should allow him to be a mid-rotation innings eater. Hudson is working on a 16-inning scoreless streak, in which he has posted a 0.571 WHIP and a 13:1 K:BB ratio, and now has a 2.43 ERA on the season.

2) Christian Friedrich, LHP – We felt Friedrich was the second best college pitcher available in the 2008 draft, but attending Eastern Kentucky kept him a bit under the radar screen entering the season. Friedrich dominated SAL hitters, fanning 66 in 45 IP. Going to the CAL, we thought he would face a stiffer challenge. So far, not so much. Friedrich is working on an 11 inning scoreless streak where he has posted a 0.750 WHIP and a 17:4 K:BB ratio. CAL hitters are batting only .177 against him and he now has a 1.98 ERA on the season.

3) Simon Castro, RHP, SDP – Castro is a huge 20yo, that is rapidly becoming one of the Midwest (MWL) League’s most intimidating pitchers. Working predominantly off of a mid-90s fastball, Castro is overpowering MWL hitters. Over the last two weeks, he has posted a 1.80 ERA, a 0.467 WHIP and a 24:2 K:BB ratio. It remains to be seen whether his secondary offerings will improve enough to make him a long-term rotation presence, but there is certainly Major League potential here.

4) Drew Storen, RHP, WSN – After a standout career at Stanford, Storen entered June’s draft as the consensus top closer available. It was expected that he would go somewhere in the late first round/supplemental, but the Nationals caught a lot of people by surprise when they used their compensatory pick, for their failure to sign Aaron Crowe the year before, to select the 21yo right-hander. Storen has not been scored upon in 8 straight appearances. During that stretch he has retired 34 of 35 batters he has faced—23 by strike out.

5) Casey Crosby, LHP, DET – Casey was named MWL pitcher of the week last week, and has clearly established himself as the Tigers top prospect. Over his last three starts, Crosby has posted a 2.08 ERA, a 0.692 WHIP, with a 17:4 K:BB ratio. The 21yo has now fanned 101 MWL batters in 86 innings. Opposing hitters are batting .203 against him, and he quite possibly may be the best pitching prospect in the league.

6) Aneury Rodriguez, RHP, TBR - Following his move to the Rays in the Jason Hammel deal, Rodriguez struggled mightily. At the end of June, Rodriguez’s ERA stood at 6.27. Working on a 13-inning scoreless streak, where he has posted a 0.474 WHIP and a 12:4 K:BB ratio, Rodriguez has lowered his season ERA to 5.23.

7) Craig Kimbrel, RHP, ATL – Quick…who has the best strikeout rate in the Minor Leagues? That’s right, it’s the Braves’ Kimbrel at 15.7 strikeouts per 9 IP. Kimbrel struggled a bit after his promotion to Myrtle Beach, but he seems to have gotten things figured out, as he has allowed only 1 run on two hits over his last nine outings. Over the last two weeks, he has a 1.29 ERA, a 0.857 WHIP and a 16:2 K:BB ratio.

8) Tyler Clippard, RHP, WSN – The 24yo Clippard may be one of the game’s least appreciated pitchers. Coming into the year, in six minor league seasons, predominantly as a starter, Clippard had a 3.73 ERA, with more strikeouts than IP, while generally being young for his level of competition at each stop. Yet, because he lacks a dominating fastball, he has never really been given a Big League shot. The Nationals have moved him to the bullpen this year where he has been absolutely lights out. A 0.92 ERA in 39 Minor League IP and a 1.93 ERA in 19 Major League IP. Over the last two weeks, Clippard has posted a 0.77 ERA, a 0.771 WHIP, with a 17:5 K:BB ratio.

9) Jose Ortegano, LHP, ATL – Speaking of pitchers that get no respect, in 5 Minor League seasons, Ortegano has posted a 2.91 ERA…despite being young for his level of competition at each stop. Yet, because he too lacks a dominating fastball, you will have to search hard to find Ortegano on any prospect list. After posting a 3.49 ERA as a 21yo in the CAR, the Braves have moved him to the SOL where he tossed 7 innings of 1-run ball in his debut on Tuesday night. Opposing hitters are batting .219 against him on the year and once he continues to shut down AA hitters, the ‘experts’ will have to take notice.

10) Junichi Tazawa, RHP, BOS - Perhaps the most significant International signing of 2008, Tazawa has been everything that the Red Sox had hoped for when they gave him a $1.8 million bonus. After posting a 1.06 ERA, a 0.706 WHIP with a 12:1 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, Tazawa has a 2.51 ERA on the year. The 23yo should figure prominently into Boston’s plans in 2010.

The Nots –

1) Andrew Brackman, RHP, NYY – Easily one of the most disappointing stories of 2009, Brackman has a 1-11 record with a 6.72 ERA—as a 23yo in the SAL. Those are ‘on your way out baseball’ numbers, not numbers befitting a former first round draft pick, who was at one time considered the second best arm available in the 2007 draft. Over the last two weeks, Brackman has posted a 14.73 ERA, a 2.727 WHIP, with a 3:8 K:BB ratio.

2) Kevin Mulvey, RHP, MIN – That Johan Santana trade keeps looking worse and worse for the Twins. Guerra hasn’t been anything close to what the Twins believed they were getting. At 26yo, Phil Humber looks like a 4A player, and Mulvey looks like a back of the rotation guy at best. Over the last two weeks, Mulvey has posted a 16.20 ERA, a 2.550 WHIP, with a 7:3 K:BB ratio…leaving his ERA at 4.40 on the season.

3) Carmen Angelini, SS, NYY – Signed for a record $1 million bonus, as a 10th round pick, in 2007. It seemed like a strange move, given they were signing a player with a questionable bat, whose best tool was his grit. Angelini hasn’t changed any opinions in two years. A .048/.091/.048 over his last two weeks leaves him with a .470 OPS on the year.

4) Colby Rasmus, OF, STL - Though technically not a prospect, Rasmus is demonstrating that it isn’t just talented young pitchers that experience their ups and downs as they get acclimated to the Major Leagues. Over the last two weeks, Rasmus has gone .067/.125/.067 and now has gone 52 ABs since hitting an extra base hit. With Holliday on board, if Ankiel gets hot Rasmus could find himself back in Memphis.

5) Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, MIN – After breezing through the FSL with a 1.32 ERA and an astonishing 4.48 GO/AO ratio, Gutierrez has found ESL hitters less susceptible to his often ‘fringy’ offerings. Over the last two weeks, Gutierrez has a 12.71 ERA, a 2.471 WHIP and a 4:5 K:BB ratio, leaving his ESL ERA at 7.51 through 14 appearances.

6) Billy Rowell, OF, BAL – It has been all downhill for Rowell since his stellar debut in 2006. The former first round pick has gone 0.074/.107/.111 over the last two weeks and now is sitting at a .632 OPS for the year. He is still only 20yo, so there is still plenty of time to get things back on track, but the Orioles need to return him to Frederick for a repeat performance in 2010.

7) Joshua Fields, RHP, SEA – The unfortunate part of achieving Major League success for a Minor League prospect is that part of success is dependent on opportunity that is sometimes outside of one’s control. For Fields, there is significant near-term opportunity available for him that he just isn’t capitalizing on right now. A 12.60 ERA, 3.000 WHIP, with a 4:5 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves Fields with a 5.90 ERA on the year.

8) Pete Kozma, SS, STL – The Cardinals 1st round pick in 2007, Kozma has yet to post playable offensive numbers in three professional seasons. A .114/.170/.114 over the last two weeks and 70 ABs without an extra base hit, leaves Kozma with a .640 OPS for 2009.

9) Vance Worley, RHP, PHI – Worley got off to a fast start this season, that left him with a 3.12 ERA at the end of May. Things haven’t gone so well since then. A 19.96 ERA, with a 2.609 WHIP over the last two weeks has his ERA up to 5.38 on the year.

10) Chris Valaika, SS, CIN – There were many that thought that Valaika would end up as the Reds’ everyday SS by the end of this season. Now they are wondering if he has enough tools to be an everyday player in the Big Leagues. A .100/.151/.200 over the last two weeks has dropped the 23yo’s OPS to .559 on the year. He isn’t really a SS at the next level, and there are serious questions as to how much he will hit.

The Mulligan: The Buick Open

The Buick Open is played at Warwick Hills in Grand Blanc, Michigan. Kenny Perry took home the trophy last year, edging out Woody Austin and Bubba Watson by a stroke at 19 under for the tournament. Warwick Hills is a Par 72, 7127 yard course that is relatively easy so don't be surprised if you see more birdies than a Hitchcock movie this week. On easy courses like these, I always like to pick players who are hot, and players who have played well on the course in the past. The Buick Open is one tournament where players that have played well in the past really seem to repeat that performance. For this reason, I am placing a premium on consistent performance in the Buick for my picks this week, while also taking into account momentum in 2009.

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First, I want to say that I think Tiger Woods is going to win this week. In fantasy golf, this is the tournament that everyone, EVERYONE, should start Tiger. He has 2 victories here, 5 straight finishes of 3rd or better and only one finish outside the Top-10 in 8 starts here. Don't let his poor performance at the Open bother you. Tiger felt that his ball striking was there, but that he got a few bad breaks on a couple of bad shots. For example, if Tiger didn't lose that ball in the tall grass coming down the stretch, he would have finished Friday 2 shots ahead of the cut line. Tiger did make mistakes but they were compounded by the difficulty of Turnberry. This week, Tiger will make up for his Open performance on a course that he thrives on.

I think Jim Furyk will play well this week. Jim won here in 2003 and he consistently plays well on Warwick. In fact he has played the Buick 14 times and finished in the Top-10 in 8 of those starts. I think his precise shot-making will help him again this week and he will contend again at Warwick.


Brian Gay has two victories already this season, and he has been on the top of several leaderboards. Last year at Warwick he finished in the Top-10. He also has 4 other Top-25 finishes as the Buick, so this could be a great week for him.


My sleeper pick for this week is Michael Letzig. After his T-8th finish last week at the Canadian Open, Letzig hopes to see his momentum carry over this week at Warwick. He has only played here once, but he finished T-12th last year. He has a well rounded game, ranking 48th in putting average, 47th in sand save percentage and 44th in driving distance. Look for Letzig to compete in some tournaments the rest of the year, possibly starting this week.


Good luck this week and lets keep moving towards the top of the fantasy golf rankings!

First to Third: It's Time for Pete Rose's Return

Pete Rose is the greatest Hall of Fame eligible baseball player not enshrined in the Cooperstown. Is that about to change? The baseball rumor mill was buzzing this weekend that baseball commissioner Bud Selig was considering reinstating baseball's all-time hits king, making him eligible for the Hall of Fame.

The Hall of Fame is a place to honor the game of baseball and to tell its story. That's why it's time to lift Rose's ban and allow him to assume his place in Cooperstown. I've always been a believer that the Hall of Fame was incomplete without Rose, who totaled 4,256 career hits, to lead everyone who has ever played the game. He's the all-time leader in plate appearances and games played and ranks in the top 10 in doubles, runs scored, total bases, and OPS. He went to 17 all-star games, was a Rookie of the Year, an NL MVP, a World Series MVP, and two-time gold glover. His on-field impact was extraordinary.

I don't think baseball should be in the business of judging a person's character, and clearly Rose was a bit flawed - but who isn't? There are cheaters and drunks in the Hall, isn't that right Gaylord Perry, Pud Galvin, Mickey Mantle, Babe Ruth, et al? I know the argument against Rose is that he bet on the game and thus challenged its integrity, but after years of lying, Rose finally came clean in 2004. That doesn't mean we have to forgive Rose, but the baseball Hall of Fame is a place for storytelling and to honor the history of the game, whether we like it or not.

Twitter: Professional Athletes, Agents, and Sports

“You know, it’s funny - I like it. I like it because it gives me the opportunity to reach out to thousands of people at one time. It gives me a chance to get my story across when something goes wrong…It’s big for me and I’m taking it a step further. I have my own application coming out where people will be able to interact and follow me. You know more than through just the keyboard and reading my messages - you’ll actually be able to follow me and when the season starts, it’s going to get even worse. I’m going to really make it fun. I’m using Twitter during games, during halftime, after the games. I’m going to be taking it to the next level.” - Chad OchoCinco, WR, Cincinnati Bengals on KGOW Radio in Houston

Over the past few months, maybe as sports have died down, I've been noticing Twitter plastered on everything. CNN and MSNBC, my local newspaper, ESPN, everything. At first, it really irritated me. Maybe I, like others, didn't fully understand the technology and it's usefulness, but why would someone care whether you are eating soup or doing laundry or driving to pick up the kids? And what person feels it's really necessary to constantly 'tweet' this information? (Click here for a quick rundown on the basics of Twitter)

Before writing this tech-trend off completely, I decided to sign up for an account and give it a chance to see if there was any real sports-related value to gain from what seems to be an inevitable convergence of athletics and social networking. While following the beginning of NHL Free Agency on July 1st, I was informed (via Twitter of course) that after signing with Minnesota Wild, Martin Havlat wasn't too thrilled with how his contract negotiations went with his former team, the Chicago Blackhawks:

"Excited to be in Minny where I was welcomed and appreciated by management. The real story about what happened in Chicago to come out.

There's something to be said for loyalty and honor."

Keep in mind, this quote was tweeted (I'm not even sure I'm using the correct verbage?) by Havlat within 20 minutes of signing with the Wild. Before the days of Twitter, Havlat would have had time to cool down and even talk with his agent prior to speaking with the media in an organized, and virtually censored, press conference. An outspoken player like Chad OchoCinco may have uttered the same frustrated words in his press conference, but for a notoriously classy team-player such as Havlat, Twitter allowed some fans to hear how he really felt.

While most athletes have yet to sign up for Twitter accounts, Havlat can thank his agent Allan Walsh for encouraging him to express his feelings to the sports world in 140 characters or less. "What I've done is approached all of my clients to say, 'I'm on Twitter, and this is the kind of stuff I'm putting up on there. I am going to use your name when something merits it, but I'll never divulge confidential information and I'll never put anything up there that I feel shouldn't be up there.' And not one player has said they have an issue with it," said Walsh.

In a sport like hockey, using cutting-edge technology to market players to the world makes sense for a number of reasons. NHL players have always been under-marketed in what is essentially a niche sport and aside from local media coverage, fans rarely get a glimpse into players' lives off the ice. Twitter allows these athletes to develop an image and even directly interact with fans in real-time. However, many potential problems exist as Twitter becomes more popular.

This past March, Milwaukee Bucks forward Charlie Villanueva felt it was necessary to update his Twitter followers at halftime:

"In da locker room, snuck to post my twitt. We're playing the Celtics, tie ball game at da half. Coach wants more toughness. I gotta step up."

One has to admire his efficient choice to save 2 characters by replacing 'the' with 'da' but what in that message really prompted him to sneak his cellphone out in the locker room? Was this just the electronic version of a guarantee by an athlete? Bucks Coach Scott Skiles wasn't too impressed either. "My personal opinion is, it doesn't have any place in the locker room," Skiles said. "The locker room's a private place for the players, a sanctuary for the players. But once you walk out of the locker room or whatever, I'm not into getting into guys' personal lives."

Where will the line be drawn? How long will it take for an athlete to tweet himself or herself into hot water by revealing classified team information? Last week, a soccer player for the Houston Dynamo of the MLS was one of the first athletes to be punished for crossing that line. While watching his team lose a match against the Seattle Sounders on TV, Brian Ching immediately tweeted:

“Ref in Seattle just cheated the dynamo. What a joke. Not even close. Ref is a cheat.”

Ching was fined $500 for what was deemed a critical comment of an MLS official, even though Ching was not even at the match, let alone participating in the event. As with any new technology, the rules and boundaries are blurry at best, but we also live in a world where there is extreme competition between members of the media to break the big story first. Traditional daily print media has been overtaken by blogs and websites that update multiple times each day. Twitter takes those rapid updates and almost puts it into real-time. As you might expect, the faster this information comes out, the less credibility it tends to have. In the future, rumors will fly rampant as journalistic standards are thrown out the window, but in this case I am beginning to think the positives definitely outweigh the negatives.

Fans interacting directly with athletes. Up-to-the-second updates on trades and news at your fingertips. The internet changed journalism, and now Twitter has taken online journalism to an entirely new level. Whether that new level is progress or not remains to be seen.

Above the Rim: Summer League Roundup

The NBA Summer League finished its schedule on July 19th and some players caught the attention of analysts and executives around the league. Following is a list of players that made a good impression in the Summer League.

Anthony Randolph, Warriors- The 20 year old second year player had GMs gushing about this future superstar after he followed up three straight double-doubles with a 42 point performance. Randolph led the league in scoring at 26.8 points per game and added 8.5 rebounds. Randolph also averaged 3 blocks and 2.2 steals per game.

Adam Morrison, Lakers- The former Gonzaga star may have found the confidence that will help him live up to the potential he showed in college. Morrison averaged 20.8 points per game and added 42$ shooting from 3-point range and 89.5% from the free throw line.

Blake Griffin, Clippers- Griffin lived up to expectations as he averaged 19.2 points and 10.8 rebounds in five games. Griffin shot 50% from the floor, but did struggle at the free throw line shooting only 45.9%.

Stephen Curry, Warriors- Curry showed why the Warriors took him seventh in the draft as he filled up the stat sheet with 17.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 2.4 steals per game. Curry’s shooting percentages were disappointing though as he only shot 32.5% from the floor and 34.5% from 3-point range. Curry and Randolph’s performances added to the continued emergence of Anthony Morrow (24.7 points per game in the Summer League) bodes well for the Warriors’ future.

JaVale McGee, Wizards- Last year’s first round pick showed his ability to score and play defense as he averaged 17.3 points per game and 4 blocks per game. McGee also added 6.3 rebounds and shot 54.2% from the floor.

Jonny Flynn, Timberwolves- After a stellar season capped by his memorable performance in the 6 overtime game against UConn, Flynn entered the Summer League and averaged 15 points and 7.4 assists per game. Flynn was also one of the most efficient players in the league shooting 48% from the floor, 58.3% from 3-point range, and 90.9% from the free throw line.

Brandon Jennings, Bucks- Jennings was closely watched in the Summer League after spending last season playing professionally in Europe instead of attending Arizona for one season. Such a bold move was going to be scrutinized going forward as more high school seniors explore their options. Jennings responded by leading the rookie league in assists at 8.2 per game (tied with Marcus Williams) and added 14.6 points and 3.6 steals. While getting rave reviews for his passing ability, Jennings did struggle shooting only 37.9% from the floor.

Joey Dorsey, Rockets- Dorsey dominated the paint in five games averaging 14.8 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game while shooting 62.1%. Dorsey also averaged 9.8 points per game. Dorsey will have to stay out of foul trouble when the season starts as he picked up 6 personal fouls in three games and 7 in one other (players do not foul out in the Summer League).

Marcus Williams, Grizzlies- The Grizzlies are trying to resurrect the career of this promising young point guard. In the Summer League, it looked as though the project was ahead of schedule. Williams tied for the league lead with 8.2 assists per game, including 17 in one game. Williams also added 13.4 points and 4.6 rebounds per game.

Fantasy NASCAR: Brickyard 400

The most prestigious race track in the world will be occupied by nearly 300,000 spectators this weekend when the NASCAR series takes to Indianapolis. Since 1994 the series had made their annual stop in the middle of the summer whereas the Indy circuit stops here during Memorial Day Weekend. The winners of the Brickyard 400 are a list of who's who. From Jeff Gordon to Bill Elliot the best drivers show up to race and at the end, kiss the bricks.

The drivers are coming off of a bye week in preparation for this event. Teams have had time to set up and tweak as much as they can. Now it is showtime on this 2.5-mile track. It's a long flat track with four distinct turns making the track look much like a square rather than an oval. Consider this the Kentucky Derby of NASCAR and here's how the hundreds of horses finish.

1. Jimmie Johnson - It's a coin-flip for me. How can you go against Jimmie Johnson. He won here last year and in 2006. Last year Johnson started on the pole and won. It all depends on where Johnson starts. When he starts 10th or worse his average finish is 28th when he starts 9th or better his average finish is 14th.
2. Tony Stewart - Then again, how can you go against Tony Stewart. He won in 2005 & 2007. He is an Indianapolis boy and has been the best driver by far this year. In the last 10 races here he is 2nd in points with 6 top 10s.
3. Mark Martin - If Tony Stewart is the best driver this year then Mark Martin is the hottest. All the pieces are falling together and with some great Hendrick Motors parts and excellent teammates, his confidence is at an all time high. Over the last 10 races here Martin is 4th in points with 5 top-10 finishes.
4. Jamie McMurray - The Wild Card. In six career races here he has finished in the top-10 in three of them. In 2007 McMurray finished 21 laps down, the only time he has failed to finish on the lead lap. I have a feeling about him coming on strong this week.
5. Matt Kenseth - Another Roush Racing car to finish in the top 5. Remember way back when at the beginning of the year when he won the first two races? Well mark this race as the race that gets him off the bubble as he currently sits 12th in points. In 9 races Kenseth has 4 top 5's.

Breaking Down the Holliday Trade: Did the Redbirds Pay Too Much?

21yo Brett Wallace is the key to the deal for the Athletics

The St. Louis Cardinals captured, what well may turn out to be (barring a Roy Halladay deal), the biggest prize in the trade deadline season today when they sent Brett Wallace, Shane Petersen and Clayton Mortensen to the Oakland Athletics for Matt Holliday. Holliday hadn’t lived up to the A’s expectations this season and, with Oakland out of playoff contention and Holliday a potential free agent after this season, the Athletics decided to off-load some of that roughly $5.5 million remaining on this year’s deal. The Cardinals, desperate for offensive help for likely NL MVP, Albert Pujols, are hoping that they have acquired the Holliday of 2007/2008 as opposed to the one the A’s saw for most of the first half of the season and that his acquisition will be enough to hold onto to their current 1 ½ game lead in the NL Central. So let’s take a look at whether Holliday will be the final requisite piece for the Cardinals and at what cost it comes.

From Oakland’s perspective, Holliday was due approximately $5.5 million for the remainder of the season. They were not going to resign him at the end of the season, and in order to get two compensatory picks if he signed somewhere else, they would have to offer him arbitration where he would likely receive a $15 - $16 million award. For the A’s, dealing Holliday is a no-brainer. So what did they get in return? The centerpiece of the deal is Brett Wallace. Wallace is the exact type of high OBP hitter that Billy Beane loves, whose bat, at 22yo, is just about Major League ready. The A’s can insert him in their lineup, as early as September, and likely get .280/.360/.490 numbers out of him for nearly a decade, and he’ll put up those numbers at considerably less cost than Holliday. The only downside to Wallace is that he is not likely to stay at 3B, meaning that you’ll be getting an .850 OPS from likely either 1B or DH, which will put him in the middle third for the position. In other words, they are likely getting a slightly above league average 1B/DH. In Mortensen, the A’s are getting a right-hander, with an upside of a solid end of the rotation innings eater, and one who is nearly Major League ready. The only problem with the Mortensen acquisition that I see, is that the A’s have a very young group of pitchers who are already penciled in for the rotation and Anderson, Cahill, Mazzarro, Braden and Gonzalez all have more talent. But you can never have too many young live arms. Petersen, is the most intriguing player in the deal, as, while he is a solid prospect with an upside of an everyday Major League outfielder, he is likely less than 50/50 of ever getting there. Still any way you slice it up, Oakland gets a player with nearly the same offensive potential (in Wallace), at a younger age and a cheaper cost. If they never get anything out of the other two players, this is still a huge win for Oakland.

Now over to the Cardinals. St. Louis has been using a combination of Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel and Nick Stavinoha to man left field. Duncan has already been dealt to the Red Sox, and with the Holliday acquisition, Ankiel moves into a 4th OF type of role, who will likely see time at all three positions. Holliday likely bats either behind Pujols or Ludwick and there, at least in my opinion is the governor on enthusiasm for this deal, as your three best hitters will all be right-handed, and all be next to each other in the order. I’d like the deal a lot more for the Cardinals, if they had acquired a left-handed hitting bat. Make no mistake, the Cardinals did upgrade their offense with this deal. If you look at three year, park-normalized, numbers, Holliday is likely to post an OPS that is .100 to .140 points higher than the three players that had been playing the position this year. But what does that mean? That means that the Holliday upgrade is likely to translate into 1.0 – 1.5 more wins over the rest of the season,than they would have yesterday. That is great, but does anyone seriously think that the Cubs aren’t going to play 3 games better over the rest of the season than they did in the first half?

By making this deal, the Cardinals have fired the guns. There is no more help coming, no Roy Halladay, no Cliff Lee. And I just have to question if it was enough? St. Louis is a better team than they were yesterday, but they gave up an awful lot to get here, and I just have a feeling they still fall short.

'Vick'dication? (Or What Do Michael Vick and American Needle Have In Common?)

For the past year, I have argued that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell might not be allowed under antitrust law to permanently suspend Michael Vick.

This view has received a lot of push back from both those inside and out of the league. However, today Chris Mortenson of ESPN.com reports that Goodell will likely reinstate Vick into the NFL within 2-6 weeks of the start of the 2009 season. In his article, Mortenson even included a quote from an unnamed NFL league source that called into doubt whether Goodell even has the power to suspend Michael Vick:

"Can we suspend him in basically double jeopardy?" asked the league source.
"That's the question."

So, why this change of heart within the NFL front office?

My guess is that with the Supreme Court soon planning to hear the case American Needle v. NFL--a case in which the NFL teams are going to ask for a broad-based antitrust exemption-- NFL club-owners are being especially carefully to avoid any player complaints about the league circumventing antitrust law.

It is possible a change in leadership at the NFLPA might have also played a positive role.

First to Third: Hall Calls Gordon Along with Rickey, Rice

It's a special weekend for the baseball community, as the Hall of Fame welcomes the class of 2009. The class is headlined by Rickey Henderson, arguably the best lead-off hitter in the game's history and Jim Rice, a slugger for the Red Sox who won the 1978 AL MVP award. Henderson and Rice will be joined by Joe Gordon. If you're scratching your head on Gordon, here's a little information about him.

Gordon was a second baseman who played in the bigs from 1938-1950 (mostly with the Yankees) and was the 1942 AL MVP. As a testament to how valuable Gordon was, he beat out Ted Williams for the MVP award in a year Williams won the triple crown. He missed the 1944 and 1945 seasons serving in World War II. A nine-time All-Star, Gordon was a .268 career hitter and was the first second baseman to hit 20 home runs in a season, retiring as the all-time leader in homers by a second baseman, with 246. In addition to these power numbers, Gordon was also a stellar defender, retiring with a .970 fielding percentage. Often lost among his more widely-known Yankee teammates, Gordon will be introduced to a whole new generation of fans this weekend when he is posthumously inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

And Now You Know!: Perfection

Amazing how last week we were talking about no-hitters and this week, perfect games. Where do I begin with such a feat? Mark Buehrle threw his second no-hitter of his career on Thursday afternoon. But there's more to it than that. Buehrle is the only pitcher to throw three complete game shutouts in which he faced the minimum 27 batters. He walked a batter during his other no-hitter in 2007 only to get a double-play and in 2004 he gave up 2 hits but induced 2 double plays.

Seven different players have had a clean game, facing the minimum 27 batters while allowing 3 or more hits. John Candelaria is the only pitcher to give up 4 hits during a game in 1982 while playing for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Candelaria induced 3 double plays and had one caught stealing.

In 1999 Roger Clemens pitched 8.2 innings, giving up 4 hits and 1 walk while facing 27 batters. Had Clemens not given up a 2-out hit to pinch-hitter Marty Cordova in the 9th, he would have faced the minimum with 3 hits and a walk and only 2 double plays.

48 pitchers since 1954 have thrown games in which they have faced the minimum 27 batters. No pitcher has ever faced 26 in a complete game (see batting out of order). Since 1904 just 16 pitchers have thrown perfect games, who will be the next?

And Now You Know! (And Knowing is Half the Battle)

Who’s Hot and Who’s Not Around the Minor Leagues: Nats’ Storen Making Pro Game Look Easy

Storen is the first player from the 2009 Draft to make an impact in the Pros

When the Washington Nationals selected Drew Storen with the 10th overall pick in June’s draft, many saw it as a pick designed to save money for their pursuit of Stephen Strasburg. The Nationals insisted that that wasn’t the case, and instead they saw Storen as the bullpen compliment for their future ace. Fast forward six weeks, and Storen appears to be everything the Nationals hoped for and more. After a Sherman-esque march through the South atlantic (SAL) League, Storen made his Carolina (CAR) League debut last night in spectacular fashion and he heads up this week’s list.

Hot Pitchers –

1) Drew Storen, RHP, WSN – After a standout career at Stanford, Storen entered June’s draft as the consensus top closer available. It was expected that he would go somewhere in the late first round/supplemental, but the Nationals caught a lot of people by surprise when they used their compensatory pick, for their failure to sign Aaron Crowe the year before, to select the 21yo right-hander. Storen pitches off of a low 90’s fastball that he uses to set up a plus power slider. His ‘stuff’ was too much for SAL hitters, which earned him a promotion to Potomac where he fanned three in 2 scoreless innings of work in his debut. Over the last two weeks he has tossed 8 2/3 scoreless innings, retiring 26 of the 27 men he has faced—18 of them on strikeouts. On the year, opposing hitters are batting .190 against him.

2) Clayton Kershaw, LHP, LAD – Occasionally we venture out of the Minor Leagues to highlight a noteworthy performance. This week we have a couple of them, but none perhaps more noteworthy than Kershaw. At 21yo, Kershaw is younger than all but three players on the ‘Hot Pitchers’ list this week. Winning 5 straight and holding a 2.95 ERA on the season is impressive enough, but Kershaw has been scored upon in only two of his last 7 starts and in the Month of July, Kershaw now has a 0.38 ERA, a 0.875 WHIP with 21 Ks in 24 IP. He still needs to work on his control so that his pitch counts allow him to get deeper into games, but the lefty is on the cusp of becoming one of the best pitchers in the Major Leagues.

3) Brett Anderson, LHP, OAK – Only a few weeks older than Kershaw is the A’s lefty, Anderson, whose month of July may be even more impressive. Anderson is working on a 21-inning, 3 start, scoreless streak, that had him take a perfect game into the 7th inning in his last start. Over that period of time, Anderson has a 0.381 WHIP and a 18:3 K:BB ratio, that has allowed him to drop his ERA from 5.74 on June 20th to 4.25 today. Look for Anderson to be the A’s ace, as early as the start of next season.

4) Travis Wood, LHP, CIN – I have written much about Wood’s career resurrecting season and his Minor League’s best starter ERA of 1.29. I have explained how he worked on his mechanics over the winter and added a cut fastball and two-seamer to give him a true 5-pitch repertoire. And I have talked about how all of this has allowed him to take a nearly 5.0 walks per 9 innings down to a 2.8 this season. But what I haven’t spent enough time is discussing his consistent dominance of the Southern (SOL) League. Start with the fact that he has only been scored upon in just over half of his 19 starts. Add to that that he has allowed only 2 HRs on the year and has only allowed more hits than innings pitched twice. Then close it out with the fact that since May 19th, a period of over two months, Wood has a 0.97 ERA, a 0.77 WHIP, and a 68:10 K:BB ratio. Wood is currently in the midst of a 19 scoreless inning streak in which he has a 0.474 WHIP and a 21:1 K:BB ratio. Memo to Walt Jocketty…I think he is ready for a bigger challenge.

5) Craig Kimbrel, RHP, ATL – Quick…who has the best strikeout rate in the Minor Leagues? That’s right, it’s the Braves’ Kimbrel at 15.7 strikeouts per 9 IP. Kimbrel struggled a bit after his promotion to Myrtle Beach, but he seems to have gotten things figured out, as he has allowed only 1 run on two hits over his last seven outings. Over the last two weeks, he has a 1.17 ERA, a 0.783 WHIP and a 17:5 K:BB ratio.

6) Evan Anundsen, RHP, MIL – The Brewers have spent a lot of high draft picks over the last decade on flamethrowers who have done more flaming out than anything else (see Jeremy Jeffress), because they can’t seem to consistently get the ball over the plate. Meet the ‘anti-Jefress’—Evan Anundsen. Over looked by many scouts, because his fringy high-80s fastball and relatively average change/curve, don’t really play well with the ‘tools’ community, the Brewers drafted Anundsen in the 4th round of the 2006 draft. After a solid, yet unspectacular 2008 in the SAL, the Brewers placed Anundsen in the Brevard County rotation this year where he has become the Manatees’ most reliable starter. Anundsen has kept the ball on the ground, and consistently around the plate this season to post a 1.93 ERA through 16 starts. Over the last two weeks he has a 1.20 ERA, a 0.733 WHIP and a 17:3 K:BB ratio.

7) Casey Crosby, LHP, DET – With Rick Porcello in the Majors, Crosby has become the Tigers’ best prospect. Over his last three starts, Crosby has posted a 1.50 ERA, a 0.917 WHIP and a 18:6 K:BB ratio. He now has four scoreless outings in his last six starts and Florida State (FSL) League hitters are batting a mere .205 against him on the year.

8) Andrew Cashner, RHP, CHN – I will admit that when Cashner walked 23 batters in 20 IP in his 2008 debut, I was beginning to feel that the Cubs had added to the first round legacy that yielded such notable selections as Ryan Harvey, Bryan Dopirak and Tyler Colvin. But unlike most teams that saw Cashner as one of the college game’s best closers, the Cubs had another plan. One that included converting Cashner to a 3-pitch starter. He isn’t popping the fastball in the upper 90s as he did before being drafted, but he is sitting in the low- to mid-90s and has found some control because of it, walking less than 3 batters per 9IP this season. Over his last three starts, Cashner has posted a 1.23 ERA and a 0.886 WHIP, leaving him with a 1.46 ERA on the season. Opposing hitters are batting a mere .190 against him.

9) Brad Holt, RHP, NYM – While a 3.88 ERA in 15 starts in his first go round with full–season ball is solid, it doesn’t begin to tell the story of Brad Holt’s season. You see in two starts, Holt has a 31.50 ERA. In the other 13 starts, Holt has a 2.25 ERA, a 0.941 WHIP and a 82:18 K:BB ratio. Over the last two weeks, Holt has posted a 2.41 ERA, a 0.911 WHIP and a 24:4 K:BB ratio. While 2010 is more likely, don’t be surprised if Holt gets a look in New York come September.

10) Ethan Martin, RHP, LAD – His debut season hasn’t quite gone according to plan, as the 20yo right-hander has had somewhat of a mixed bag. While his 88 Ks are impressive, his 1.480 WHIP and 5 walks per 9 IP are less so. Currently in the midst of a 12-inning scoreless streak, Martin has a 2.08 ERA, a 1.154 WHIP and a 20:5 K:BB rato over the last two weeks.



Hot Hitters –

1) Desmond Jennings, OF, TBR – Jennings looks poised to help the Rays to the most athletic outfield in baseball, as the 22yo has put up impressive, .327/.410/.507, numbers in the Southern (SOL) League this season and appears ready for a September jump to the Big Leagues. Over his last 50 PAs, Jennings has been raking to the tune of .382/.553/.794.

2) Chris Marrero, 1B, WSN – After a sensational full-season debut in 2007, the 2006 1st rounder was derailed by a nasty leg injury that cost him a large portion of the 2008 season. With nearly 500 CAR ABs under his belt entering 2009, one would expect Marrero to have success, and success it is, posting a .850 OPS to date. The last two weeks, have been Marrero’s best in nearly two years as he has gone .391/.451/.696. He still will need to show more consistent power with the bat, given his defensive limitations, but it is nice to see him get things back on track.

3) Brandon Allen, 1B, ARZ – It has been a season of ups and downs for Allen. After getting off to a hot start in April (.887 OPS), Allen struggled (.767 OPS) in May and (.715 OPS) June. The he was dealt to the Diamondbacks in the Tony Pena deal. Apparently Allen is finding Reno more to his liking, as over the last two weeks he has gone .364/.475/.879.

4) Thomas Neal, OF/1B, SFG – The 2005 Draft and Follow is making a lot of believers this season after 2007 shoulder surgery and 2008 rehab are now in the past. A .353/.411/.804 over his last 51 ABs, gives Neal a 1.052 OPS on the year. I still have questions about where he will end up defensively, but the 21yos bat looks like it will play anywhere.

5) Hank Conger, C, LAA – The Angels felt that Conger was that rare find of a high school catcher that had high-level offensive skills and enough defense to stay behind the plate, when the made thim their 2006 first round selection. After a sensational 2006 debut, a string of injuries had put his future in doubt when the 2009 season started. Conger, at 21yo, has put up solid Texas (TXL) League numbers going posting a .772 OPS through 81 games. More importantly, after not catching in a professional game for over a year, Conger has been behind the plate in 70 games this season. Over the last two weeks, Conger has stepped up his game, going .386/.481/.596. If he can stay healthy, Conger has all-star potential.

6) Gabriel Noriega, SS, SEA – Signed to one of the highest bonuses ($800,000) given to a player from Venezuela in 2007, Noriega is the best defensive SS in the Mariner’s system, and one of the better defensive shortstops in the minor leagues. So, how far he goes will depend solely on his ability to hit. After posting an .840 OPS in a short stint in the Arizona (AZL) League as a 17yo in 2008, the Mariners…as is their want…rushed him to the Appalachian (APY) League, where he struggled (.557 OPS) as one of the circuits youngest players. A return trip to Pulaski this year has produced much better results. A .423/.464/.769 over the last two weeks, gives him a .957 OPS on the year.

7) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT – Pirate fans are rejoicing “it’s about time”, as Alvarez makes his ‘Hot List’ debut. Well-publicized, protracted, contract issues prevented Alvarez from making his debut in 2008, after the Pirates selected him #2 overall. While his power stroke has been present from the beginning, he hasn’t made the contact that was expected, striking out in 25% of his plate appearances. Don’t get me wrong, the 22yo’s .845 OPS on the year is solid…just hasn’t matched the expectations. Over the last two weeks though, Alvarez has heated up, going .317/.364/.659 against Eastern (ESL) League pitching. There is all-star potential here, but he will only reach it if he can cut down on the whiffs. Today’s trade of Adam LaRoche to the Red Sox, clears 1B, which appears to be his eventual destination, for Alvarez. Expect him to take over that spot at the beginning of the 2010 season.

8) Jon Gaston, OF, HOU – Repeat after me…Jon Gaston is not a real prospect. Now that that is out of the way, let’s enjoy his eye-popping numbers. Over the last two weeks, Gaston has posted a .296/.387/.815 with 7HRs, including back-to-back 2 HR games. This leaves Gaston with a 1.073 OPS on the year and the Minor League Home Run (27) lead. Between his age (22y0), his poor contact rate (100 Ks in 96 games), his Home/Away OPS split (1.223/.919) and defensive limitations (LF/1B), there isn’t a lot of upside here, but you have to be enjoying him if you are a Jethawk fan.

9) Ryan Westmoreland, OF, BOS - In order to persuade him away from a commitment to Vanderbilt, the Red Sox signed Westmoreland to a record 5th round bonus ($2 million) following the 2008 draft. A shoulder injury prevented him from playing in 2008 and he has still yet to play the field this season, but he has the ‘tools’ scouts love. Over the last two weeks, Westmoreland has posted a .234/.345/.735 with 6 HRs, giving him a .883 OPS through 100ABs on the year. He will need to make more contact, but he is giving Red Sox fans something to anticipate once he gets healthy.

10) Derek Norris, C, WSN – The Hot list wouldn’t be complete without an appearance by Norris, who has made the list for the 5th time this year. Over the last two weeks, Norris has posted a .244/.370/.711, giving him a .995 OPS on the year. His solid season has vaulted him to behind only Posey and Santana among backstop prospects.


The Nots –

1) Shooter Hunt, RHP, MIN – Hunt was drafted with questions regarding his control. It only got worse through his first 70 Professional IP. Over the last two weeks, Hunt has posted a 15.00 ERA, a 3.667 WHIP and a 6:8 K:BB ratio. On the season he has allowed 54 walks in 31 2/3 IP and now finds himself toiling in the Gulf Coast (GCL) League. How soon can you declare a first round pick a bust?

2) Jamie Romak, 1B, PIT – This week’s ‘Put a Fork in Him Award’ winner, Romak is having a disastrous 2009. A .103/.103/.103 over the last two weeks, Romak hasn’t had an extrabase hit since July 2nd. On the year, Romak has a .589 OPS and finds himself a 23yo in Hi-A.

3) Tim Murphy, LHP, TEX – Murphy was the Rangers’ 3rd round selection in 2008, out of UCLA. There isn’t a tremendous upside in Murphy and his fringy hi-80s, low-90s fastball doesn’t exactly blow batters away. The result has been a 7.67 ERA for the 22yo in the CAL. Over the last two weeks Murphy has a 18.62 ERA and a 3.103 WHIP and really doesn’t look like a future big leaguer.

4) Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, MIN – After breezing through the FSL with a 1.32 ERA and an astonishing 4.48 GO/AO ratio, Gutierrez has found ESL hitters less susceptible to his often ‘fringy’ offerings. Over the last two weeks, Gutierrez has a 16.20 ERA, a 3.120 WHIP and a 3:4 K:BB ratio, leaving his ESL ERA at 7.93 through 12 appearances.

5) Carlos Peguero, OF, SEA – Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2005, Peguero had posted 4 solid seasons entering 2009. Now a 22yo, Peguero looked like he was ready for a breakout year in the CAL, and has been solid for most of the season, posting a .865 OPS. The last couple of weeks though have been troublesome, as Peguero has gone .100/.163/.100, and now has 42 ABs without an extrabase hit.

6) Cyle Hankerd, OF, ARZ – After a fantastic 2006 debut, it has been progressively downhill for the former 3rd rounder. Last year in the SOL, Hankered struggled to a .624 OPS. Now a 24yo, Henkerd is repeating the circuit with only marginally better results. Over the last two weeks Hankerd is .125/.125/.156.

7) Shairon Martis, RHP, WSN – I’ll preface this by saying that technically Martis is no longer a prospect, and only 22yo he already has 100 innings of Big League experience. It is a short list (approximately 6% of all pitchers) of predominantly successful pitchers with 100 innings at that age. That being said, the wheels have seemingly fallen off for Martis. After starting the season with 5 straight wins, Martis has found himself demoted to AAA and has posted a 7.00 ERA since May 19th. Over the last two weeks Martis has a 15.00 ERA, a 3.333 WHIP and a 3:5 K:BB ratio.
8) Kyle Skipworth, C, FLA – When the Marlins made Skipworth the 6th overall pick in 2008 they thought they were getting an offensive-minded catcher that had enough defense to potentially stick at the position. After a .602 OPS in his 2008 debut, Skipworth has a .561 OPS in the SAL this year. Over the last two weeks, he has a .162/.184/.184 and is posting his lowest OPS month of the season in July. Although only 19yo, if things don’t turn around quickly we will begin to hear the ‘bust’ label whispered.

9) Jeff Marquez, RHP, CHA – After the Nick Swisher trade, Marquez entered the 2009 season as the favorite to nail down the White Sox 5th starter spot. While Swisher is having a resurgent season (.816 OPS) for the Yankees, Marquez has been abysmal (9.85 ERA). Over the last two weeks, Marquez has a 12.00 ERA, a 2.417 WHIP and a 7:5 K:BB ratio.

10) Pete Kozma, SS, STL – The Cardinals 1st round pick in 2007, Kozma has yet to post playable offensive numbers in three professional seasons. A .143/.163/.143 over the last two weeks and 46 ABs without an extra base hit leaves Kozma with a .634 OPS for 2009.

American Needle v. NFL: Talking with ESPN's Lester Munson

For those who may have missed it, I was quoted last week by ESPN's Lester Munson on the practical implications of the Supreme Court case American Needle v. Nat'l Football League.

In addition, my law review article on why the NFL should be treated as a joint venture of 32 separate businesses, and not a single entity, was cited in American Needle's most recent brief to the Supreme Court.

Does Michael Vick Have An Antitrust Suit Against the NFL?

Yesterday, the Associated Press reported that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell plans to decide slowly whether to reinstate quarterback Michael Vick. The funny part about this article, however, is that is presumes Goodell has the authority to decide whether Michael Vick may practice his profession. It entirely ignores the possibility that the NFL indefinitely suspending Vick might violate antitrust law.

In a recent law review article entitled "Are Commissioner Suspensions Really Any Different From Illegal Group Boycotts," I argue that the 3rd, 6th, 8th and D.C. Circuits might find Goodell's attempt to indefinitely suspend Michael Vick to violate Section 1 of the Sherman Act. This is because the NFL Personal Conduct Policy serves as an agreement amongst the 32 independently owned NFL-clubs to boycott a particular player. At the same time, the NFL Personal Conduct Policy seems to harm consumers by taking away their ability to voice a preference for football games that contain Michael Vick.

In antitrust terms, this is essentially the Spencer Haywood or Maurice Clarett case all over again, but with "NFL Personal Conduct Policy" replacing "League Age Requirement" as the purportedly anticompetitive conduct.

Of course, player suspensions today are common in sports. However, the NFL's attempt to enforce its Personal Conduct Policy is different in three ways: (1) the NFL Personal Conduct Policy leads to player suspensions for more than just a de minimis number of games; (2), the NFL Personal Conduct Policy does not involve conduct so directly related to the existence of a sport that it is needed to make the sports product viable; and (3) the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement ("CBA") does not specifically empower the league commissioner to suspend players for off-the-field wrongdoing (albeit, the NFL CBA more generally allows the commissioner to suspend players for conduct "detrimental to the League or professional football").

This does not mean that the Atlanta Falcons will be stuck with Michael Vick at quarterback. Indeed, in my article, I propose four legal, and I believe more appropriate ways, for the NFL clubs to address player misconduct: (1) individual teams can release players for breach of the morals clause in their contracts; (2) the NFL teams can petition Congress to publicly regulate pro football player eligibility; (3) the NFL teams could petition Congress for a limited antitrust exemption to regulate player eligibility; or (4) the NFL teams could collective bargain with the NFL Players Association to add the NFL Personal Conduct Policy directly into the CBA.
A fifth and final way that the NFL teams might become able to ban players from the league would be to convince the Supreme Court to construe the NFL as a single-entity for all purposes.

Some, such as ESPN's Lester Munson, are fearful that such "Armageddon" might happen. Meanwhile, others at Sports Law Blog find a broad-based single-entity ruling in favor of the NFL less likely.

***

For further discussion of these issues, please see Marc Edelman, Are Commissioner Suspensions Really Any Different From Illegal Group Boycotts: Analyzing Whether The NFL Personal Conduct Policy Illegally Restrains Trade, 58 Catholic University Law Review 631 (2009).

Chin Music: Bonuses Down...For Now

In the latest issue of Baseball America, Jim Callis makes some interesting points regarding the Major League Baseball First Year Player Draft. Bud Selig’s bonus recommendations, which are the non-binding guidelines set forth by MLB on what a specific draft slot should receive as a bonus, have decreased by 10 percent compared to last year.

The MLB draft, as with all drafts, is a means to control costs for professional sports franchises rather than creating a bidding war. Baseball draftees, however, are known to hold out fairly often and return to school for their senior season. Scott Boras clients Jason Varitek and J.D. Drew both tested the draft regulations by playing independent league baseball for the St. Paul Saints in an attempt to circumvent the draft rules. The Royals’ 12th overall pick this year, Aaron Crow, followed a similar route when he played professional independent league baseball after opting to hold out after he was drafted ninth overall in the 2008. Boras represents the top overall pick this season in Stephen Strasburg, who will surely demand more than the recommended slot money.

What is interesting though is that despite a cut in the recommended slot bonuses, players are signing fairly quickly, and only a handful of players appear to have signed with bonuses over the recommended slot value. While it’s still early, draftees have about a month before they need to sign or wait until the 2010 draft to start the process all over, it is a little interesting that players are taking the money below slot value. Two players who have received more than slot value are Rex Brothers and Ben Paulsen, both of who signed with the Colorado Rockies.

Due to many players’ likelihood to hold out, teams oftentimes skip over top talent and instead draft someone who is “signable.” That has played a large part in the lower bonuses from this most recent draft. Tony Sanchez was drafted fourth overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates, which was a surprise for sure since many pegged him for a late first round pick at best. Instead though, the Pirates got a solid player that they knew would sign, and he signed for 700,000 less than last year’s fourth overall pick. The Orioles fifth pick Matt Hobgod signed for roughly 4 million less than last year’s fifth pick. A.J. Pollock signed with the Diamondbacks for 100,000 less than his slot last year, and the Nationals’ Drew Storen signed for 500,000 less than his slot last year. The decreases in bonuses are clear.

The number of first round picks who have signed contracts thus far are similar to the number of pick that signed over the last two years through as many days after the draft. And while many of the quick signees are signing for less than Bud Selig’s suggest slot value, expect the remainder of players to hold out and receive higher than their suggested bonuses. Players like Strasburg, last year’s holdout Aaron Crow, and second overall pick Dustin Ackley are all likely to receive huge bonuses, and they aren’t alone.