SportsJudge PTI: What Happened at Michigan?

Chris

Michigan football has had a bad run of things as of late. Ever since Appalachian State pulled off one of the biggest upsets of all time, the Wolverines have experienced a tough run. The sweater-vest in Columbus apparently has their playbooks, because they cannot hang with their rivals to the south. In fact, they haven’t been playing very good football at all and last season the once mighty Michigan went 3-9 including a loss to Toledo (and a 35 point loss to the Buckeyes).

Just when it appeared that things couldn’t get worse, Coach Rich Rodriguez’s football program is being investigated for regularly breaking the rules of the NCAA regarding the amount of time that players can spend on training and practice. Apparently Michigan players were putting in well over the NCAA maximum of 8 hours of mandatory workouts per week in the offseason, and 20 hours in season.

I think this is just bad timing for the Wolverines. They are looking to wipe out the memory of last season and start off 2009 on the right foot. Now they will have this problem to add to the already bad situation.

So how big of a deal is this? I think the allegations themselves are definitely a problem for the football program and the university. However, I don’t see this as that serious of an infraction. Adam and I wanted to take this opportunity to look at some other recent infractions and we began to wonder just how rampant this type of thing is in college football.

Adam

I can understand where Michigan is coming from. There is such pressure on athletic teams and programs to win and be productive monetarily for their respective universities. Teams have to cut corners (right John Calipari?) to try to make the team as productive, prepared, and talented as possible.

After switching to the Big Ten and mighty Michigan from West Virginia, Rich Rodriguez inherited a weak roster that was not equipped to run his spread style offense. Rodriguez made a poor decision (allegedly) in requiring more work than the NCAA allows, but Michigan cannot be the only school in the country doing this. I’d be willing to bet that at least 70% of the schools in the country at least bend the rules in implementing their off-season workouts and drills. Add that to all the different recruiting violations (USC with Reggie Bush, Calipari and Memphis, Bobby Bowden at Florida State, Kelvin Sampson wherever he goes) that plague NCAA athletics, and Michigan doesn’t look that bad (at least off the field and in practice).

To be honest, this type of violation is much tamer than cheating in the classrooms and improper payments to athletes. Extra practice is probably good for a lot of these kids. The main issue is that it takes away from the students studies’, which is, or at least should be, the reason they are attending college. Cheating in the classroom isn’t fair to anyone at the school, both the student-athletes and all of the other students that don’t get any extra benefit for being an athlete. Paying the athletes is simply training these impressionable young men that they can get freebies because they are special. For the massive amount of players that do not make it professionally, this can be disastrous (Maurice Clarett). By comparison, extra practices are teaching these athletes to work hard and take pride in their work. It really isn’t bad; it just may take away from the time the young men can devote their schoolwork. While distracting from the athletes schoolwork is not a good thing, it also does not have the ethical implications of cheating or improper payments.

For Rodriguez personally, I can sympathize with his decision. Michigan was coming off of a disappointing season that featured a loss to Appalachian State, the prospects for 2008 looked bleak, and Michigan had lost The Game to the powerful Buckeyes six of the last seven years. Sometimes people try to cut corners when they look for help (it failed for Rodriguez as the Wolverines won only 3 games and were destroyed by the Buckeyes 42-7). All I am saying is that we shouldn’t condemn the man or the program for a violation that most schools in the country are probably guilty of and is not nearly as detrimental to the student-athletes as other potential violations. While the Wolverines and Rodriguez probably broke the rules, the punishment should not be much more than a slap on the wrist.

Dollars and Sense: Bankruptcy Briefs

Here at SportsJudge Blog, we usually focus on the legal side of the ongoing Phoenix Coyotes bankruptcy case. Today, our focus will shift a bit more towards the business side of the case, with an additional piece on the pending sale of the Chicago Cubs by the Tribune Co.

NHL In, Reinsdorf Out, Balsillie Still Kicking
In a somewhat surprising move, Jerry Reinsdorf has withdrawn his $148 million bid for the Phoenix Coyotes from the auction to be held by the Bankruptcy Court on September 10. At the same time, the NHL has submitted its own bid, reported to be about $140 million, for the franchise. The NHL is seeking to purchase the Coyotes and then immediately re-sell the team to a third party. This is not the first time the NHL has submitted a bid in a bankruptcy case; indeed, the NHL filed a bid in the Pittsburgh Penguins case in the late-1990s as a contingency if no buyer willing to keep the team in Pittsburgh could be found. It is also not unprecedented for a league to own a franchise; Major League Baseball owned the Montreal Expos for three years before the team moved to Washington, D.C. With Reinsdorf out of the bidding process, that leaves three bids for the auction on September 10: Jim Balsillie's $212.5 million bid, Ice Edge Holding's $150 million bid, and the NHL's $140 million bid. My money is still on Jim Balsillie winning the auction if (and that's a big if) he can resolve (1) the antitrust issues regarding relocating the franchise and (2) the ownership issues arising from the NHL's rejection of him as an owner. Resolution of those issues is ultimately in the hands of Bankruptcy Judge Redfield Baum.

Cubs To Be Sold to Ricketts Family, Bankruptcy Filing Possible
As part of its own bankruptcy case, the Tribune Co. is required to obtain court approval for the sale of any significant assets occurring outside the ordinary course of business. That means that the Tribune Co. must obtain court approval before its sale of the Chicago Cubs (an entity owned by the Tribune Co.) to the Ricketts family (Joe Ricketts is the founder of TD Ameritrade) can be finalized. Because of the precariousness of a debtor selling a large asset during the bankruptcy process, the Tribune Co. may be forced to place the Cubs into Chapter 11 to facilitate the process. Such a filing would almost assuredly be a pre-packaged case where the parties merely file a bankruptcy petition to take advantage of certain Bankruptcy Code provisions to effectuate the sale on which they have previously agreed. This would be very similar to the Los Angeles Kings bankruptcy case in 1995. In that case, the filing was essentially designed to approve the sale of the team previously negotiated and approved by the NHL. There are two other things to note about the Cubs sale. First, if the Cubs file, it will be the first bankruptcy filing by a professional sports franchise outside the NHL since the inception of the current Bankruptcy Code in 1978. Second, the $845 million price tag the Ricketts family will pay, most of which the Tribune Co. will use to pay creditors, is $155 million less than some of the previously reported $1 billion bids. While that shouldn't be anything giving the bankruptcy court cause to disallow the sale, it is still substantially less than what creditors may have been expecting.

Stay tuned to SportsJudge Blog for more ongoing coverage of these developments.

First to Third: Rise of the Rockies

As the Rockies look to extend their lead in the NL Wild Card while chasing the Dodgers in the NL West, I am reminded that I picked the Rockies to finish in fourth place in the NL West in my pre-season predictions.

I looked smart in the beginning of the season when the Rockies hit rock bottom (sorry, couldn't resist) and had to fire manager Clint Hurdle. Since then, though, the team has been on a roll. What's caused this change?

The Rockies have four guys in their lineup with at least 18 home runs, but they're doing it with pitching. They are one of only eight teams in the NL to have gotten over 100 starts from their first five starters this season. Four of their starters have at least 10 wins, with Jason Hammel right around the corner with eight. None of their starters have an ERA over 5.00. In the bullpen, Huston Street has resurrected his career and has only blown one save this year and trade deadline acquisitions Rafael Betancourt and Joe Beimel have been a solid righty-lefty setup tandem.

If pitching carries a team far into the postseason, watch out for the Rockies in October.

And Now You Know!: Closing Time

Why is Brad Lidge still closing for the Phillies? He is only going to cost them a big game in the playoffs a la Albert Pujols style. It seems inevitable for this Phillies team that how deep they can go in the playoffs depends on the arm of one player. Who said that baseball was a team sport?

Closers have taken on a prestigious role in sports with the spotlight focused squarely on them to get a mere three outs. They are supposed to have ice in their veins and be unfazed during clutch moments. Yet despite the basic prerequisites to be a closer many often fail over a dozen times a year. Imagine if you failed at your job, the key essential of your job over a dozen times a year and caused your whole team or group a setback, where would you be?

The save became an official stat in baseball in 1969 and its been a measuring stick of the most clutch pitchers of all time with Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera atop that list. But what about those guys who simply prove to be not clutch and the teams that stuck with them for an entire season?

The record for most saves blown in a single year is 14. (Goose Gossage has more blown saves in his career than any other player with 112.) It is held by 4 players- Rollie Fingers, Bruce Sutter, Bob Stanley, and Ron Davis.

1976- Rollie Fingers: 13-11, 20 saves, 2.47 ERA ( missed playoffs by 2.5 games)
1978- Bruce Sutter: 8-10, 27 saves, 3.18 ERA (missed playoffs by 11 games)
1983- Bob Stanley: 8-10, 33 saves, 2.85 ERA (missed playoffs by 20 games)
1984- Ron Davis: 7-11, 29 saves, 4.55 ERA (missed playoffs by 3 games)

The one thing that all four of these players have in common is a relatively low ERA considering they blew 14 saves. But what about these 8 players.

1979- Gene Garber: 6-16, 25 saves, 4.33 ERA
1979- Mike Marshall: 10-15, 32 saves, 2.65 ERA
2003- Mike Williams: 1-7, 28 saves, 6.14 ERA
2003- Jose Mesa: 5-7, 24 saves, 6.52 ERA
2004- Shawn Chacon: 1-9, 35 saves, 7.11 ERA
2006- Derrick Turnbow: 4-9, 24 saves, 6.87 ERA
2009- Matt Capps: 3-7, 23 saves, 6.38 ERA
2009- Brad Lidge: 0-6, 25 saves, 7.33 ERA

Clearly, Shawn Chacon has had the worst season by a closer, ever. The Rockies missed the playoffs by 24 games. Coincidentally, it was 2004 in which Brad Lidge went 6-5 with 29 saves and a mere 1.90 ERA. But 2004 was the year in which Pujols set Brad Lidge's career back.

And Now You Know! (And Knowing is Half the Battle)

Who’s Hot and Who’s Not Around the Minor Leagues: Is Nasty Neftali the New K-Rod?

Feliz has fanned nearly 40% of the MLB batters that he has faced

Down the stretch in 2002, the Anaheim Angeles, in the midst of a playoff run, recalled a 20yo, right-handed, fireballer with filthy late movement and began turning over games to him in crucial situations. In 24 late season/post season innings, Francisco Rodriguez— K-Rod, compiled a 1.48 ERA, fanned 41 and held opposing hitters to a .143 Average Against, while playing a key role in the Angels’ World Series run. While the Angels had gone back and forth between whether or not Rodriguez was a starter, after 2002, his fate was sealed and he became one of the most dominant closers in the game. Fast forward 7 years, and take a look at the Texas Rangers, 21yo, right-handed, fireballer, Neftali Feliz. As the Rangers fight their way to a playoff spot, Feliz has become their ‘go-to guy’ in the pen. In 16 innings, Feliz has a 0.55 ERA, a 0.93 Average Against, and has fanned 21 of the 55 batters he has faced. The Rangers have predominantly used Feliz as a starter in the minors, but it appears that there is a great big case of déjà vu going on right now and with it, Feiliz has earned this week’s top spot.

Hot Pitchers –
1) Neftali Feliz, RHP, TEX – After walking nearly 4 batters per 9IP in 2008 and 3.5 at Oklahoma City this year, Feliz has allowed but 1 free pass in more than 16 Major League Innings. He is pitching fearlessly at the moment and is making even good hitters look silly. The K-Rod comparison is an accurate one, and expect Frankie Francisco to be with a new team in 2010.
2) Mauricio Robles, LHP, SEA – When the Mariners acquired Luke French in the Jarrod Washburn deal, it was assumed that it was a deal of getting a player with a similar upside, with a lot less years on him. Looking at the deal that way ignores the upside of the slight, 5’10, LHP. While not big, Robles does have a low-90s fastball with excellent late movement, and right now, pitching in one of the Minor League’s least friendly parks, Robles has amassed a 2.66 ERA, a 1.279 WHIP and fanned 21 in 20 IP, with the best performances coming at High Desert. Over his last three starts, Robles has a 0.47 ERA, a 0.947 WHIP and a 20:12 K:BB ratio.

3) Deolis Guerra, RHP, MIN – Now that Santana is out for the year, with an uncertain future for 2010, Twins management is trying to find something positive in what they got in return for him. While Guerra has had an up-and-down season, he just might be beginning to regain his 2007 form. Over his last three starts he has a 2.89 ERA, a 0.857 WHIP and a 16:4 K:BB ratio, giving the 20yo, a 4.88 ERA on the year.

4) Carlos Carrasco, RHP, CLE – Carrasco was in the midst of a relatively disappointing 2009 campaign when the Phillies made him the centerpiece of the Cliff Lee deal at the trade deadline. He seems to have turned things around though, as he has posted a 2.01 ERA, 0.761 WHIP, with a 22:3 K:BB ratio over his last three starts and International (INT) batters are hitting .205 against him since the deal.

5) Tyler Chatwood, RHP, LAA – Chatwood was the Angels top pick in the 2008 draft and opted to sign for $550,000 instead of attending UCLA. He has a fastball that hits the mid-90s, but still struggles with control at times. At 5’11, there isn’t a ton of projectability in him, but nonetheless, he has compiled a solid season as a 19yo in the Midwest (MWL) League. Over his last three starts, he has posted a 1.53 ERA, a 0.849 WHIP and a 18:7 K:BB ratio, giving him a 4.10 ERA on the year.

6) Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TBR – With David Price in the majors, there is quite a battle in the Rays system for the title of best pitching prospect. Hellickson is trying to fend off Matt Moore, Wade Davis, Nick Barnese and Kyle Lobstein, and thus far is doing a pretty fair job of it. Over his last three starts, Hellickson has posted a 2.79 ERA, a 0.724 WHIP, with a 27:6 K:BB ratio, giving the 22yo a 2.82 ERA on the year.

7) Thomas Hanson, RHP, ATL – Sometimes we lose sight of how remarkable young players’ performances have been once they lose the designation of ‘propsect’. It is for that reason that we highlight Thomas Hanson this week. Hanson entered 2009 as arguably one of the top two pitching prospects in baseball. The Braves were relatively patient with him, given how dominating his performance was at Gwinnett (1.49 ERA with 90 Ks in 66IP). But his performance in Atlanta has been nothing short of spectacular. Over his last three starts, the 22yo has posted a 2.75 ERA, a 1.017 WHIP , with a 23:3 K:BB ratio. Through 14 Major League starts he has a 3.12 ERA and if you ignore his debut start, it is 2.69 over his last 13.

8) Kyle Lobstein, LHP, TBR – More polished than most high school pitchers, the Rays tabbed the left-hander with their second round pick in the 2008 draft. He signed late (for $1.5 million), so didn’t make his professional debut until the New York-Penn (NYP) League opened this summer. Through 12 starts he is everything that had been advertised, posting a 2.79 ERA. Over his last three starts, he has a 1.42 ERA, a 0.684 WHIP and a 22:3 K:BB ratio. The Rays have promoted a number of players to Tampa over the last couple of seasons, but with players like Lobstein, the cupboard is hardly bare yet.

9) Jake Arrieta, RHP, BAL – With Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen and Hernandez already rookies in the Orioles rotation, it has hard to believe that there is another rookie ready to go, but after a 1.35 ERA, 1.000 WHIP and a 17:6 K:BB ratio that appears to be the case with the 23yo, Arrieta. With Guthrie’s contract up at the end of the season, if they can find a suitor for Koji Uehara, it is possible the Orioles will open the 2010 season with a rotation made up entirely of players, under 25yo.

10) Nick Hagadone, LHP, CLE – One of the key pieces that Cleveland received in the Victor Martinez trade, Hagadone is putting together a remarkable post-Tommy John surgery recovery. Over his last three starts, Hagadone has posted a 2.08 ERA, a 0.577 WHIP, with a 13:3 K:BB ratio. Through 14 starts, South Atlantic (SAL) League hitters are batting .143 against him. At 23yo, he is ready for bigger challenges, and could move fast in 2010.

Hot Hitters –
1) Julio Borbon, CF, TEX – Sometimes players provide intangible value that isn’t easily captured by our traditional statistical view. Selected as a supplemental first round pick in 2007, Borbon made solid, if unspectacular, progress in 2008. A 23yo, Borbon put up good numbers in the PCL this year, albeit somewhat bereft of power. When Nelson Cruz went down, the Rangers seized the opportunity to get Borbon’s bat/speed in the lineup. Since his recall, the Rangers are 6-3 with Borbon in the starting lineup. In 41 Big League ABs, Borbon has posted a 1.015 OPS with 9 SBs. Over the last two weeks, Borbon has posted a .484/.556/.645. He has the ability to electrify an offense and should be the Rangers everyday CF in 2010.

2) Andrew Cumberland, SS, SDP – After being signed as a supplemental 1st round pick in 2007, Cumberland had been limited by a string on nagging injuries to 319 professional ABs, coming into the year. An athletically gifted player, Cumberland’s fate will be determined by his ability to stay at SS. As a SS, he can be a classic top of the order table setter, who will likely never have tremendous power. If he must shift to 2B or CF, he is likely a Major League reserve. Over the last two weeks, Cumberland has played his best baseball of the year, posting a .378/.521/.676, and now has an .818 OPS on the year.

3) Travis Snider, LF, TOR – Snider continues to be one of the hottest hitters in the game—at any level, as he has brought his remarkable INT performance with him to Toronto, with 3 HRs and a .400 OBP in 25 ABs since his return. Over the last two weeks he has posted a .386/.491/.682. At 21yo, look for Snider to establish himself as one of the games most feared hitters in 2010.

4) Chris Johnson, 3B, HOU – In a system bereft of position prospects, Johnson may get more attention than would otherwise be called for from a 24yo at AAA, with a sub-.800 OPS, but none the less, Johnson has put together a solid 2009 campaign. Peaking at the right time, over the last two weeks he has posted a .375/.400/.750. With only Jeff Keppinger and Geoff Blum ahead of him, don’t be surprised to see Johnson in Houston come September.

5) Alex Liddi, 3B, SEA – No player has appeared on the ‘Hot’ list more times than Liddi has this season, and for good reason, as he hasn’t posted an OPS below .967 in any month this year. And despite a 1.049 OPS for the year, Liddi is saving his best for last, as he has gone .400/.481/.600 over the last two weeks and has a 1.167 OPS so far this month. It has taken way too long for the ‘experts’ to recognize Liddi. He is young for his league, is extremely athletic, has the defense to stay at 3B, and at 6’4, 180 lbs, he has one of the most projectable ‘power’ bodies in the Minors. The ‘expert’ community dings him for his ‘toe-tap’ swing initiator, yet he seems to get around just fine on the fastball. They ‘ding’ him for his home park being one of the Minors friendliest, yet his .888 OPS away from High Desert would rank 7th in the league—despite the removal of all games from his home park, and the 6 players that would have ranked higher than him are all either 22yo or 23yo, despite Liddi being only 11 days past turning 21yo. The point…for the season, Liddi trails only Buster Posey as position player prospects that have had at least 100 ABs in the California (CAL) League this year. Now let’s see how long it takes the ‘experts’ to figure it out.

6) Logan Watkins, 2B, CHN – The Cubs surprised the scouting community, not by taking Watkins in the 21st round in 2008, but by signing him to a $500,000 bonus. But the Cubs, under Tim Wilken, are trying to move to a more contact-oriented prospect approach and Watkins is an athletically gifted player that fits that mold. After going .464/.538/.571 over his last 65 PAs, Watkins now has a .838 OPS, as a 19yo in the Northwest (NWL) League.

7) Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, NYM – It’s kind of like being the ‘tallest midget’, but Nieuwenhuis has quickly established himself as the best OF prospect in the Mets’ system after being selected in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft. At 22yo, in the Florida State (FSL) League, we would like to see how he does next year in AA, before getting too excited, but with a .373/.448/.881 over the last two weeks, he now has an .820 OPS for the year.

8) Thomas Hickman, OF/1B, FLA - Hickman has been somewhat of a disappointment since the Marlins selected him in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft. After posting a .767 in the SAL in 2008, the Marlins started Hickman in the FSL this season, where he was significantly over matched and eventually placed on the restricted list with ‘personal ‘ issues. When he returned in July, they returned him to the SAL and it has been a completely different story, as he has posted a .390/.528/.951 over the last two weeks and now has a 1.267 OPS since his return. At 21yo, there is still potential here, but it is time for Hickman to put it all together.

9) Cole Gillespie, OF, ARZ - Gillespie put together a solid debut, after the Brewers drafted him in the 3rd round in 2006, but it has been relatively downhill since then. In his fourth professional season, he has been solid, yet unspectacular. Limited defensively he appears now to have little more than 4th OF upside. For that reason, the Brewers felt comfortable in including him in the trade for Felipe Lopez in mid-July. Gillespie has taken quite favorably to his new surroundings, posting a .946 OPS in his first 99ABs since the trade, including a .450/.511/.750 over the last two weeks.

10) Kyler Burke, OF, CHN – Burke could well be this seasons’ reclamation success story, as entering the season, the 2006 first round pick had posted a .679 OPS in nearly 1000 professional ABs. Burke still had his supporters, and the Cubs decided to let him repeat the Midwest (MWL) League, where he could let his age catch up with the competition. This could be one of the best organizational decisions of the year, as Burke has broken through to the tune of a .901 OPS. The 21yo, has posted a .326/.425/.674 over his last 60 PAs, and has turned into a virtual walk machine, taking a free pass in nearly 21% of his PAs over the last month. For the season, his walk rate is nearly double what it was in 2008.

The Nots –
1) Zach Collier, OF, PHI – Another in the typical mold of ‘toolsy’, athletic, picks that the Phillies seem to love, Collier has had about as disappointing of season as any 2008 1st round pick not named Skipworth. After being thoroughly dominated in the SAL, the Phillies moved him to the NYP when the short season leagues began, but the results there have been only marginally better. After a .125/.125/.125 over the last two weeks, Collier now has a .643 OPS in the NYP, and a .604 OPS for the year. Still just 18yo, it isn’t time to bail on him, but there is certainly cause for concern.

2) Argenis Diaz, SS, PIT – We have followed Diaz closely, ever since he posted one of the best age-adjusted seasons in the 2005 Venezuelan Summer League. His bat, however, is not his Big League ticket, with a .702 OPS through 5 Minor League seasons. Only 22yo, Diaz was dealt to the Pirates in the Adam LaRoche deal. Typical of the prospects that the Pirates received in their numerous deadline deals, Diaz has plenty of question marks. The most prominent of which is whether or not he will ever hit well enough to receive regular playing time. It’s not looking good at the moment, as Diaz has a .470 OPS since the trade, and has gone only .167/.184/.167 over the last two weeks.

3) P.J. Walters, RHP, STL – Walters has had some eye-opening performance as he has bounced between St. Louis and Memphis this year. Unfortunately, for him, not enough of them. Over the last two weeks, Walters has a 25.07 ERA, a 3.643 WHIP, with a 2:4 K:BB ratio.

4) Ty Worthington, OF, ARZ – Worthington is a prime example of why we don’t prefer ‘toolsy’, athletic, players with little history of performance. Drafted in the fifth round of the 2007 draft, away from a football scholarship, Worthington has posted a .435 OPS in two professional seasons. After not being able to handle the Pioneer (PIO) League for two years, the Diamondbacks moved him to their NWL affiliate…but the results have been similar. A .100/.122/.125 over the last two weeks, leaves him with a .560 OPS on the year, and leaves me scratching my head as to why Worthington isn’t playing football.

5) Nick Schmidt, LHP, SDP – In what seems like a decade ago, Schmidt actually opened this season by destroying MWL hitters in his return from surgery. A promotion to the California (CAL) League, hasn’t proved so well. After posting a 12.71 ERA, 2.824 WHIP and a 2:5 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, Schmidt finds himself on the disable list--to heal his 7.88 CAL ERA.

6) Josh Reddick, OF, BOS – I like Josh Reddick, and I give tremendous props to the Red Sox organization for forging their own path to player development and coming out on the right side more often than most. But can anyone explain to me what the 22yo Reddick was doing in a Red Sox uniform at any point this year? He was good—not great in the ESL this season, and that seemed to be the right developmental level for him, but someone was dreaming if they really believed he was ready for the ‘show’. Hopefully the experience won’t come back to bite everyone as Reddick is now in AAA and has posted a .127/.186/.182 over the last two weeks.

7) Henry Rodriguez, RHP, OAK – After a disappointing 2008 season, the Athletics decided to convert Rodriguez to a reliever. It doesn’t appear to be going so well. After a two week period where he has gone 20.77 ERA, 3.923 WHIP, with a 6:7 K:BB ratio, Rodriguez now has a 6.28 ERA on the year. He’s still only 22yo and his raw ‘stuff’ is better than the results, so it isn’t time to write him off yet, but his star has dimmed considerably over the last two seasons.

8) Juan Duran, OF, CIN – Signing 16yos out of Latin America is an extremely risky business. As a matter of fact, of the thirteen players that have ever been signed for $1 million or more, prior to 2007, only Miguel Cabrera and Wily Aybar have seen regular playing time at the Big League level (Angel Villalona and Fernando Martinez could still join that list). Duran signed for $2,000,000 in 2007, posted a .659 OPS in the Dominican Summer (DSL) League in 2008, and is struggling mightily in 2009. After posting a .167/.167/.250 over the last two weeks, Duran now has a .491 OPS in the Gulf Coast (GCL) League. Duran doesn’t turn 18 until next week, so there is still plenty of time, but there are also plenty of holes in his swing that need fixing.

9) Adys Portillo, RHP, SDP – With Michel Ynoa yet to make his professional debut, Portillo becomes the most expensive 16yo Latin American pitcher signed in 2008. Portillo will still be a 17yo when he finishes the season, so there isn’t a whole lot to read into his performance, and he has whiffed 44 batters in 52 Arizona (AZL) League innings, but with a 1-9 record and a 5.13 ERA, things haven’t been impressive. Over his last three starts, things haven’t been any better—9.72 ERA, 2.880 WHIP, with a 7:8 K:BB ratio.

10) Eric Hosmer, 1B, KCR – With Alex Gordon back in AAA, Mike Moustakas posting a .719 OPS in the Carolina (CAR) League, Hochevar still not seemingly able to put it together at the Major League level and Hosmer with a .685 OPS in two stops, one begins to wonder if the common thread isn’t the Royals player development process. Gordon was about as sure a “can’t miss” prospect as they get, Hochevar was the #1 overall pick and while Moustakas had questions surrounding his eventual defensive position, few questioned his ability to hit. Now Hosmer is looking like the 4th straight ‘high’ first round pick that is failing to meet expectations. He’s clearly in over his head in the CAR (.532 OPS), and a .160/.222/.200 over the last two weeks, leaves his OPS at .685 for the year.

The Mulligan: The Barclays

The first round of the PGA Tour playoffs kicks off this week at The Barclays. This event will be played New York on a brand new course, so it is difficult to make any predictions based on which players have a game that fits the course. For that reason, I am going to pick players that have played extremely well in 2009 and should make some noise both this week and throughout the rest of the playoffs. Those players are Tiger Woods, Steve Stricker and Hunter Mahan.

Tiger has eleven Top-10 finishes in 13 starts this season. He has won 5 events and only finished outside of the Top-1o once. He is the greatest player in the game right now. I dont need to say much else. Tiger will compete this week and for the rest of the year.

Steve Stricker ranks in the Top-30 on Tour in several key stats: greens in regulation, putts per greens in regulation, and scambling. He has won twice this year (Crowne Plaza Invitational and John Deere Classic) and he has finished in the Top-10 eight times. Stricker has a great all around game that should bode well for him on any course he faces down the stretch. It appears as though the only thing lacking from his game in the past was confidence. Now that he has it, watch out.

Hunter Mahan has had a superb year. He has 6 Top-10 finishes this season including recent finishes of T6, T4, 2, T4. He ranks 12th in total driving and 13th in greens in regulation percentage. He has really enjoyed a breakout season and he is riding a big momentum wave right now. I expect big things from him for the rest of the year.

Good luck this week and let's keep moving to the top of the fantasy golf rankings!

First to Third: Papelbon Out?

On ESPN's Sunday night baseball broadcast, the genius that is Steve Phillips suggested that Daniel Bard is the Red Sox closer of the future and that the off-season may be Theo Epstein's best opportunity to trade Jonathan Papelbon.

While Papelbon hasn't necessarily struggled this year, he hasn't been nearly as dominant as in past years. His strikeouts are much lower this year and his he's already set a new career-high in walks. With a month left in the season, Papelbon has matched his career-high in home runs allowed and he's getting hit more than he ever has. In addition to his on-field "woes," Papelbon continues to struggle with tact. When asked about the possibility of the Red Sox acquiring Billy Wagner, Papelbon outright questioned the move, comparing it to the Eric Gagne trade of 2007. This spawned a war of words between Boston's closer and the former Met closer, as reported by SI's Jon Heyman. It's not hard to fathom few Boston players missing those type of remarks if Papelbon is dealt.

If the Sox do try to trade Papelbon, expect a hefty haul for Boston as young, effective closers are rarely available and highly valuable.

NHL Summer Update: Eastern Conference Review

[Editor's Note: SportsJudge.com NHL Insider Darren Coslov is back and takes a look at this summer's action in the Eastern Conference.]

NHL Training Camp is less then a month away. General Managers are completing the final stages of their training camp rosters after what has been a very interesting off-season.

I raised my eyebrow on several occasions over moves that mortgaged the future of a franchise. I shook my head at the typical off-season signings which always seem to steer an organization further into the depths of the standings, rather than towards Lord Stanley. I was impressed with moves that filled necessary gaps, yet just as shocked at moves that brought in question marks as replacements for assets lost on July 1st. Welcome to the 2009 NHL off-season, another summer where we've seen a handful of General Managers getting the big picture, while others continue to completely miss the boat.

Question Marks A Plenty: Atlanta Thrashers and New York Rangers

The Atlanta Thrashers and New York Rangers are two Eastern Conference teams which have questions marks all over the board. Starting in the Big Apple with the Blue Shirts, the likes of Scott Gomez, Marcus Naslund, Nik Antropov, Colton Orr and Nikolai Zherdev are out. Headed to Broadway....injury prone Marian Gaborik, inconsistent (and now overpaid) Ales Kotalik, an expensive Tier 2 forward Vinnie Prospal, Christopher Higgins, Donald Brashear, Enver Lisin and Tyler Arnason. One thing we do know at this point is that gamebreaker Marian Gaborik must play 82 games in order for the Rangers to have any chance at surviving the vicious Atlantic Division this season. Much as the Minnesota Wild learned with the Slovakian winger, the Rangers hopes live and die with Gaborik (and his groin). The other additions are solid, but far from the answers. The additions fill voids, but do not improve the big picture. High-priced veteran question marks year after year. Doesn't this sound so familiar when discussing the Rangers? The Blue Shirts defense is also a work in progress with four spots currently in play. Be it developing youth or as usual via trades, the Rangers must improve the blue line to have a chance against the likes of Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, and the Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins. I'm not so sure if it happens.

The Atlanta Thrashers are dying to return to the win column. Ilya Kovalchuk not only wants to win, he wants to win and be successful with top tier forwards surrounding him. Thus far that has yet to happen in Atlanta. Colby Armstrong and Slava Kozlov are not the answers, but neither is the newly-acquired Nik Antropov. Don Waddell is having a difficult go with trying to bring in top-notch UFA’s to sunny Atlanta. Veteran players want to win, and most likely want to win with an organization that not only attracts top players, but does so on a consistent basis. Anthony Stewart, Marty Reasoner and Noah Welch are not the answers and would hardly crack certain lineups around the league, but one thing we know is this, the future is bright with young talent and it’s up to Don Waddell to build the necessary pieces around it.

GM's Glen Sather and Don Waddell, are officially on the hot seat.

Caps Lock: Washington Capitals

Let’s take a look at one team in the East who filled necessary gaps, and filled them well. The Washington Capitals lost Sergei Fedorov and Victor Kozlov to unrestricted free agency. Capitals fans, meet Brendan Morrison and Mike Knuble. The brilliance here is not only did GM George McPhee fill voids created by the UFA departures, he filled them with experienced players who have a tremendous game in several different areas: penalty kill, powerplay, and textbook 5 on 5. Knuble was tremendous on the powerplay in Philadelphia. The thoughts of what he could potentially do with Alex Semin and Alexander Ovechkin on the PP, well that’s yet to be seen, but the Southeast Division will find out soon enough.

George McPhee continues to build a winning franchise in the nation's capital. It’s only going to get better.

Bad Draft Survival Guide

Bad draft order, impetuous decisions, that person before you taking every single one of your picks, or if you’re like me, having you internet kick you out of the live draft room for five of your picks resulting in auto-draft selections, all of these very common problems, among others, can take a serious toll on your fantasy draft leading to an unbalanced team (position wise), questionable selections, and a copious amount of profanity. So what do you do now? Well, don’t panic, while off to a rough start your fantasy season is not doomed to failure just yet; with some work, and perhaps a little luck, you could put yourself back in contention for a league championship and what follows is a list of ways to do just that.

Free Agency/Waivers: The most obvious route to recovery from a bad draft is to take advantage of the free agency/waivers. Root out players overlooked during the draft or undervalued in preseason rankings due to injuries last season, mega-hyped teammates/players in the same position, etc. Basically, if you have a hunch about someone, take the risk, if your draft was really that bad how much could it hurt. Besides you could always have them ride the bench a few games to see how it works out.

Trade: Look at your roster, do you really need six wide receivers when you only have one decent running back? Well, maybe you situation isn’t that bad you get the idea. Start looking over other teams in your league and figure out either (a) what other player you are willing to trade for or (b) what other owner is stuck in a similar position. Just keep in mind that when other owners also have either an overflow or dearth at one position you’re more likely to get an equitable trade than from someone well balanced, so make that your first plan of attack.

Scouting Reports: Scouting reports, or just general knowledge of various teams, will be your best friend this season. Every team has strengths and weaknesses and it is now, more than ever, your job to exploit them. For example, say you did not get a top defense in your draft, well, chances are there is a maximum of twelve teams in your fantasy league meaning that there is up to twenty available defenses in free agency/waivers per week. More than likely, at least one of these available defenses will have a favorable match-up each week. Same thing applies to Quarterbacks, Wide Receivers, Runningbacks, etc. For instance, someone like Trent Edwards, who is not a top quarterback and therefore more likely to be available from week to week, will be a more valuable fantasy pickup during week 5 against the Cleveland Browns than during week 1 against the New England Patriots.

Injury Updates: I cannot say this enough, PAY ATTENTION TO INJURY UPDATES! When a player gets injured it opens up opportunities for other players to shine and, if you’re on top of things, for you to pick up fantasy points. For example, New England is stacked with tremendous talent but only two WRs will be worth drafting: Wes Welker and Randy Moss. However, what happens if one of these guys gets hurt? Either Joey Galloway or Greg Lewis will be stepping into one of the two main slots. Given their preseason performances so far and the fact that Tom Brady will be throwing to them, both of these guys have the ability to put up respectable numbers if given the chance.

Rookies/Questionables: Like injuries and scouting reports, you’ll want to keep your eye on rookies this season. Many talented rookies go undrafted in fantasy leagues because, well, they are just so unpredictable. However, as the season progresses you’ll want to pay attention to rookie players and assess their reliability or likelihood of overtaking a starting position. While high profile rookies such as LeSean McCoy and Knowshon Moreno were more than likely taken in your draft, you can still pick up less hyped but potentially high producing rookies such as Giant’s WR Hakeem Nicks and Vikings Percy Harvin from free agency/waivers. (I’m counting Percy Harvin as less hyped because of his drop in the Draft due to his Pot smoking tendencies) Likewise, now is the time to take a chance with players considered “questionable.” These are those players who have bi-polar fantasy production from week to week or have a history of injuries. Just be familiar with their strengths and weaknesses and carefully look at who they are playing against before starting them.

First to Third: Baseball's Brett Favre

That soap opera over there in the NFL, you know, the one where that old quarterback can't decide whether to play or not, made me sick. Luckily, there hasn't been a baseball player this side of Roger Clemens to be as indecisive about retirement. The whole Favre saga, though, got me thinking... Are there any baseball players that probably should just retire already?

Jamie Moyer, age 46 - The Phillies' southpaw could have followed my favorite storyline which features a player that wins a championship and rides the big parade float off into the sunset, but chose to return to the Phils this year. Not only is his ERA up over 5.00, but he was recently demoted to the bullpen to make room for Pedro Martinez.

Randy Johnson, age 45 - This guy has had more back problems than anyone I can remember and should have retired after his Yankee years. He likely hung on only to reach 300 wins, which he did this year. While my money is on the big surly unit retiring at the end of the year, in the last three years he's gone 23-19, a far cry from the guy that dominated baseball in the 1990s and early 2000s.

John Smoltz, age 42 - These last two years, Smoltz has only been healthy enough to start 13 games and he's gone 5-7 with a 5.96 ERA. I thought his career was over when the Yankees lit him up in the Bronx a couple weeks ago, but it looks like he thinks he's got something to offer a team in a pennant race. Good luck with that.

Who’s Hot and Who’s Not Around the Minor Leagues: Reds’ Francisco Takes AAA in Stride

Francisco is slugging .750 over the last 4 weeks

After finishing second in Home Runs, and slugging .665, in the highly competitive Dominican League, as a 21yo, last Winter, the Reds’ Juan Francisco entered the season with high expectations. But after two months in the Southern (SOL) League Francisco was hitting .245/.270/.442. Worse yet, he was striking out once every four trips to the plate. But as the weather has warmed, so has Francisco’s bat, as he gone .320/.357/.578 since the beginning of June, and has cut his strikeout rate to just over 17%. That earned him a promotion to the International (INT) League this weekend where the hits just keep on coming. Looking like Scott Rolen’s replacement, sooner rather than later, Francisco tops this week’s list.

Hot Hitters –
1) Juan Francisco, 3B, CIN - Francisco has always had a tendency to be a streaky hitter, and he doesn’t walk enough to provide comfort that he will have success at the Major League level. Nonetheless, he has brought his strikeout rate down this season, possesses adequate 3B defense and awesome power potential. Francisco’s on a roll right now, going .435/.462/.855 over the last two weeks and the 22yo has an a .844 OPS on the year.

2) Alex Avila, C, DET - The son of the Tigers Assistant GM, was considered by some to be a ‘patronage’ pick when the Tigers took him in the 5th round of 2008. But so far, Avila’s success is the biggest surprise from that class, as he has turned a solid Eastern (ESL) League season into a Big League trial, and so far he has made the most of it. Avila has posted a .409/.519/1.000 over the last two weeks.

3) Travis Snider, LF, TOR – With the Jays going nowhere this season, they can hardly be faulted for trying to focus this year on what is best for Snider’s long-term development. Still , with a 1.094 OPS on the year, one has to wonder what took the Jays so long to get Snider’s bat back into the Toronto lineup. Snider returned to the Jays lineup Tuesday night, going 2 for 3 with a walk and a home run in the game. Over the last two week’s Snider has posted a .438/.518/.813 and is one of the hottest hitters at any level.

4) Julio Borbon, CF, TEX – Selected as a supplemental first round pick in 2007, Borbon made solid, if unspectacular, progress in 2008. A 23yo, Borbon put up good numbers in the PCL this year, albeit somewhat bereft of power. When Nelson Cruz went down, the Rangers seized the opportunity to get Borbon’s bat/speed in the lineup. In 28 Big League ABs, Borbon has posted a 1.016 OPS with 8 SBs in 8 attempts. He has the ability to electrify an offense and should be the Rangers everyday CF in 2010.

5) Ryan Kalish, OF, BOS – Kalish’s career has been marked by nagging injuries that had limited him to 575 ABs in three professional seasons, entering the year. After 115 Carolina (CAR) League ABs, the 21yo Kalish was promoted to the Eastern (ESL) League, where he has been solid, if not spectacular. However lately, Kalish has taken his game up a notch, posting a .353/.441/.725 over the last two weeks.

6) Buster Posey, C, SFG – Posey has been everything that was advertised when the Giants made him the 5th overall pick in 2008. He has first rate catch and throw skills and better than Major League average offensive skills. After posting a .967 in nearly 300 CAL ABs, the Giants skipped Posey to AAA, where he has posted a .910 OPS as a 22yo. Over the last two weeks he has gone .435/.480/.957, and he should become the Giants everyday backstop by early 2010. Posey currently is one of the top five prospects in the Minor Leagues.

7) Brett Jackson, OF, CHN – When the Cubs selected Jackson with the next to last pick of the first round, there were many scratching their heads, as the book on Jackson was that he was a decent OF, with solid offensive numbers, but lacked power and whiffed way too often for that production level. After 182 professional ABs, Jackson has shown surprising patience (32BB), better than expected power, and a K-rate (20%) that people can live with. Over the last two weeks he has posted a .333/.397/.606 and is proving, at least at the moment, to be a better pick than some of the more highly rated college OFs that went before him.

8) Kyler Burke, OF, CHN – A real resurrection story, entering the season, the 2006 first round pick had posted a .679 OPS in nearly 1000 professional ABs. Burke still had his supporters, and the Cubs decided to let him repeat the Midwest (MWL) League, where he could let his age catch up with the competition. This could be one of the best organizational decisions of the year, as Burke has broken through to the tune of a .911 OPS. The 21yo, has posted a .449/.578/.756 over his last 65 PAs, and has turned into a virtual walk machine, taking a free pass in nearly 21% of his PAs over the last month. For the season, his walk rate is nearly double what it was in 2008.

9) Matt Spencer, OF, OAK – Pretty much a throw-in in the deal that sent Joe Blanton to Philadelphia, Spencer has been anything but, as he has posted an OPS of more than .900 in nearly 600 ABs since the deal. Over the last two weeks Spencer has further upped his game, going .442/.500/.808 and now has a .883 in the Texas (TXL) League.

10) Alexia Amarista, 2B, LAA – While we have been touting Amarista since he posted the best age-adjusted performance in the Dominican Summer (DSL) League in 2007, the book on him entering the year was that he was a smallish, good-glove secondbasemen, with an upside of a utility infielder. Amarista is trying to rewrite that book this season, as he has gone .346/.433/.615 over the last two weeks and now has a .846 OPS, as a 20yo, in the not-so hitter-friendly MWL.

11) Jason Heyward, OF, ATL – Heyward had his worst week in months, going 3 for 23 in his quest to best Andruw Jones’ 157 AB, 1.107 OPS performance in 1996, and put together a historic Southern (SOL) League season by a player younger than 20. He now has fallen slightly behind Jones pace, with a 1.097 through 137 ABs.


Hot Pitchers –
1) Randall Delgado, RHP, ATL – The 19yo Delgado posted a top 10 age-adjusted season in the DSL in 2007, a top 5 age-adjusted season in the APY in 2008, and thus far has 121 Ks in 107 IP in the SAL this year. With additional projection left in his 6’3 frame, he should eventually have a mid-90s fastball, to go along with secondary offerings that have Major League potential. Over the last two weeks, Delgado has a 0.75 ERA, a 0.500 WHIP and a 18:2 K:BB ratio. There is significant upside in this right-hander who likely only trails Julio Teheran (ahead of Mike Minor) as Braves pitching prospects.

2) Casey Crosby, LHP, DET – While the signing of Jacob Turner this week likely bumps Crosby down to #2 on the Tiger prospect list, Crosby has put together a season that had him named by Baseball America as the top pitching prospect in the MWL. 1st in the League in ERA, 5th in WHIP and 3rd in strikeouts. Since the middle June, the 20yo has posted an ERA (0.72 ERA), allowing only 1 ER since July 15. Over the last two weeks, Crosby has posted a 0.00 ERA, a 0.786 WHIP, and is currently working on a 22-inning scoreless streak. On the year MWL hitters are batting only .195 against him.

3) Carlos Carrasco, RHP, CLE – Carrasco was in the midst of a relatively disappointing 2009 campaign when the Phillies made him the centerpiece of the Cliff Lee deal at the trade deadline. He seems to have turned things around though, as he has posted a 2.70 ERA, 0.771 WHIP, with a 21:4 K:BB ratio over his last three starts.

4) Jay Jackson, RHP, CHN – In one of those situation where you realize that developing a player is more than just teaching them plate discipline or how to throw a split-finger fastball, the Cubs demoted Jay Jackson from AA to the Florida State (FSL) League, despite posting a 3.70 ERA, at the end of July for ‘failure to comply with team rules’. The good news is that Jackson hasn’t pouted about it, and in four starts since his demotion he has posted a 0.36 ERA, a 0.711 WHIP, with a 24:3 K:BB ratio. With a 2.92 ERA on the year for the 21yo, Jackson looks poised to find himself in Chicago sometime next season—if he can get his ‘compliance’ problems straightened out.

5) Jordan Lyles, RHP, HOU – The 18yo Lyles is having an eye-popping season, where he has fanned 151 batters in 129 SAL innings. Over the last two weeks, Lyles has a 1.50 ERA, 0.889 WHIP, with a 18:3 K:BB ratio. The baseball world was certainly surprised when the Astros made Lyles a supplemental 1st round pick in 2008, but, at least for now, it is the Astros that appear to hold the last laugh.

6) Michael Montgomery, LHP, KCR – At least until the Kansas City signs Aaron Crow, Montgomery has established himself as the Royals’ #1 pitching prospect. A 2.45 ERA, 0.927 WHIP with a 16:4 K:BB ratio over his last three starts, gives the 20yo a 2.32 ERA on the season. CAR hitters are batting only .208 against him.

7) Daniel Gutierrez, RHP, KCR – In what appears to be the week where we talk more about the ‘ugly’ side of developing Minor League prospects, Gutierrez’s season debut was delayed due to arm ‘fatigue’ he was experiencing this spring. Gutierrez then switched agents to Scott Boras, and the Boras/Gutierrez camp got into a ‘tiff’ with Royals management, in May, about the injury rehab process. Kansas City sent Gutierrez home for a month and finally at the end of July Gutierrez made his season debut. 17 innings into the season, Gutierrez’s ERA sits at 2.70, his WHIP at 0.660, and he has fanned 17, while only issuing 3 walks.

8) Jaime Garcia, LHP, STL – A great comeback story, Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery last September and remarkably returned to the mound this July. While control is typically the last thing to return after TJ surgery, Garcia has a 28:6 K:BB ratio in 6 outings since his return. While Tony LaRussa is on the record as saying Garcia won’t see St. Louis this season, look for him to play a key role for the Cardinals in 2010.

9) Ryan Pope, RHP, NYY – A 3rd round pick in 2007, the 23yo Pope has struggled for much of the time this season, posting a 4.85 ERA in the ESL. That hasn’t been the case though for the last two weeks, where Pope has a 0.00 ERA, 0.615 WHIP and a 16:3 K:BB ratio.

10) Matt Moore, LHP, TBR – With David Price in Tampa, Matt Moore has assumed the title of the Rays’ best pitching prospect. The 20yo has dominated South Atlantic (SAL) League hitters this season, allowing the to bat .187 against him, while striking out 12.7 per 9IP. He’s been even better over his last three starts, with a 2.40 ERA, a 0.933 WHIP and a 24:7 K:BB ratio. Moore will still have to harness his ‘stuff’, but he is currently one of the more dominating pitchers in the Minors.


The Nots –
1) Anthony Swarzak, RHP, MIN - Swarzak is one of those WYSIWYG (what you see is what you get)pitchers, and what you see is a 23yo with stuff that is good enough to fall in to the back of the rotation, but not good enough to actually overpower Major League hitters. Because of that, he is struggling in his debut season. Over the last two weeks, Swarzak has posted a 19.24 ERA, a 3.4000 WHIP and a 3:1 K:BB ratio. On the year, his ERA in Minnesota is 5.87.

2) Cutter Dykstra, 2B, MIL – I can promise you that the Brewers expected more than the .594 OPS they have gotten from Dykstra this year, when they made him their 2nd round pick in 2008. Still only 20yo, there is time for him to turn things around, but a .119/.159/.167 over the last two weeks isn’t help jis cause any.

3) Tony Thomas, 2B, CHN – Thomas has made 2 appearances on both the ‘Hot’ list and ‘Not’ list this year, and I guess that is to be expected from a guy that is merely below average defensively and about average with the bat. Over the last two weeks, Thomas has posted a .121/.194/.121 and now has only a .740 OPS in the Southern (SOL) League.

4) Chris Hicks, RHP, HOU – Hicks was drafted in the 14th round in 2008, after spending 2 years in the Georgia Tech bullpen. After flashing a mid-90s fastball in the Hawaiian Winter League, the Astros decided to give him a shot at starting this year. Proving both that the California (CAL) League is tough on pitchers, and that a good fastball doesn’t always equal a good pitcher, it is beginning to look like Hicks career isn’t going to amount to much. A 21.94 ERA, 3.563 WHIP, and a 8:4 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves Hicks with a an ERA on the wrong-side of ‘6’ for the year.

5) Greg Veloz, 2B, WSN – Outside of Fernando Martinez, we weren’t enamored with the quality of Mets’ offensive prospects heading into the season, and too many players like Veloz are the reason why. Yes Veloz is athletic, and yes Veloz has some skills, but what Veloz isn’t (nor has ever been) is player that produces, enter the year with a lifetime OPS of .695. When the Mets went looking for some SS backup for Jose Reyes, they found Anderson Hernandez and couldn’t have been happier to unload Veloz in the process. After posting a .042/.148/.125 over the last two weeks, Veloz’s OPS sits at .577 on the year.

6) Jordan Danks, OF, CHA – In fairness, the White Sox 7th round pick in 2008 has put together a solid debut season, with a .784 OPS between stops in the CAR and SOL. He’s hit a bit of an ugly stretch though and is only .063/.189/.063 over the last two weeks.

7) Collin Balester, RHP, WSN – I’ll admit to never having been a fan of the 4th round pick by the Expos in 2004, and I think it speaks volumes to the state of the Nationals’ rotation that he has made 6 starts for them. A 9.64 ERA, 1.714 WHIP and a 5:3 K:BB ratio over his last two weeks may be a bit on the extreme side, but his 6.75 ERA on the year does seem to be a fairly accurate gauge of his talent level.

8) Josh Reddick, OF, BOS – I like Josh Reddick, and I give tremendous props to the Red Sox organization for forging their own path to player development and coming out on the right side more often than most. But can anyone explain to me what the 22yo Reddick was doing in a Red Sox uniform this year? He was good—not great in the ESL this season, and that seemed to be the right developmental level for him, but someone was dreaming if they really believed he was ready for the ‘show’. Hopefully the experience won’t come back to bite everyone as Reddick is now in AAA and has posted a .088/.114/.206 over the last two weeks.

9) Daniel Bard, RHP, BOS – Honestly I am not picking on Red Sox nation here, and I think Bard will be a good Major League closer—sooner rather than later. But it has been a rough couple of weeks for the 23yo, as he has posted a 13.50 ERA, a 3.000 WHIP and a 7:6 K:BB ratio over his last 6 outings.

10) Troy Patton, LHP, BAL – After becoming one of the ‘feel good’ stories from the first half of the season, Patton has floundered since his promotion to the International (INT) League. After giving up 6 runs, 6 hits and 3 walks in 3+ innings his last time out, the Orioles shut him down for the year. The hope is that he is just worn out in his comeback attempt and that it is nothing more serious.

Tonight's Discussion on American Needle v. NFL

Interested in the latest on American Needle v. NFL? I will be interviewed tonight at 9 PM Eastern Time on the radio show Illegal Curve.

The program will be aired live in Winnipeg, but you can download the radio feed directly from their website here.

Fantasy Football Dispute? We Solve Them

When I first started resolving fantasy football disputes in 2001, I operated as a one-man shop. However, as more fantasy football leagues have turned to formal dispute resolution, our team has grown in size.

Thanks to the hard work of Marketing Director Mike Colligan, we now have available pictures and bios of the entire SportsJudge.com Team, including information about our three deputy justices (who assist me with fantasy trade disputes) and about our featured columnists (who write for SportsJudge Blog).

We also have posted our many of our Testimonials, which come from publications as varied as The Sporting News, ESPN the Magazine, and The Wall Street Journal.

As we approach the 2009 fantasy football season, SportsJudge.com looks forward to continuing to meet all of your fantasy football arbitration needs. If you have any questions or concerns about our fantasy football dispute service, please feel free to reach out to me directly at info@sportsjudge.com

Very truly yours,

Marc Edelman, Esq.

Professor of Law & Founder, SportsJudge.com

The Mulligan: Wyndham Championship

This week the Tour heads to Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina for the Wyndham Championship.  Sedgefield is a Par 70 measuring 7130 yards.  This course normally plays easy and scores in the high teens or even low twenties under par should not be surprising.  The Wyndham Championship is also the last event before the PGA Playoffs begin, so players on the cusp of the Top 125 will have a lot to prove this week.

I think Lucas Glover will have a good week in Greensboro.  He has never really cooled down from his US Open performance and he finished 2nd place last week at the PGA.  Glover also has a history of playing well here.  He finished T20 each of the past 2 years at this event.  A South Carolina native, Glover should have the hometown crowd behind him all week too.  Glover likes this course and he has momentum coming in so this could be a good week for him.

David Toms should have a good week this week as well.  Toms has seven Top-10 finishes this season and he is ranked 2nd on Tour in driving accuracy.  He has three 2nd place finishes but no victories in 2009.  Some experts think he is due this week to finally get a win this year.  Either way, I think Toms will find himself in contention again this week.

Finally, I think Tim Clark will play well this week.  Clark finished T29 two weeks ago at Bridgestone, and T16 last week at the PGA so his game is in decent shape.  He has three straight Top 25 finishes at this event, including two 6th place finishes in the last three years.  Clark is consistent on this course and he is playing well.  I like his chances this week.

Sleeper Pick: Michael Letzig has had a pretty good season in 2009.  He finished in the Top 10 in both the Buick Open and the RBC Canadian Open, his last two starts on Tour.  He has 3 straight Top 25 finishes and 9 straight cuts made.  He has proven he can play at this event as well because he finished T-9th here last year.  Don't be surprised if you see Letzig's name on the leaderboard, or if he improves on last years good finish.

Good luck this week and let's keep moving to the top of the fantasy golf rankings!

First to Third: The Neftali Express Hits Texas

Have you ever heard of Neftali Feliz? You should have. Aside from being a key piece of the trade that sent Mark Teixeira from the Rangers to the Braves (along with Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, et al), Feliz is one of the top pitching prospects in the majors.

The 21-year old Feliz was recently called up to bolster the Ranger bullpen as the team heads toward a showdown with the Red Sox for the AL Wild Card. Seen long-term as a starter, Feliz is following the Joba Chamberlain/David Price plan and getting his feet wet in the 'pen. His fastball has been clocked in the triple digits and he has 16 strikeouts in 8.2 innings pitched. Even more impressive, he's only allowed two hits (although one was a home run) and hasn't walked anyone, despite a history of erratic control.

A quick check on Yahoo! indicates he's only starting in 15% of leagues. Especially if you are playing in a keeper league, check to see if Feliz is available to help your team in the stretch run and beyond.

SportsJudge.com PTI: Who is the better fantasy quarterback: Jay Cutler or Kyle Orton?

This week Chris and Adam give their take on the Kyle Orton/Jay Cutler trade and the implications on fantasy football. Last year Jay Cutler was a fantasy stud while Orton was mediocre. Is Cutler just that much better than Orton? Or were they each a product of their environment last season?

Chris

I think Kyle Orton will have a better year than Jay Cutler in terms of fantasy football value. I like both Cutler and Orton and I think they are both good players. However the situation in Denver is much more quarterback friendly than the situation in Chicago.

While a lot of people have been talking about Cutler this off season, it seems that Orton has flown under the radar.

Both players struggled in their team’s first preseason game. Cutler went 5-10 for 64 yards and a pick. He ended up with a poor 30.8 quarterback rating. The Bears were without starting running back Matt Forte and starting tight end Greg Olsen, so these numbers can’t be viewed with much weight. However, the Bears offense looked as flat as ever with Devin Hester being the one real threat for Cutler.

Orton looked bad as well in the Broncos’ first preseason game going 9-16 for 89 yards and 3 interceptions. He ended up with a similarly poor 32.6 quarterback rating. Like Cutler’s preseason debut, Orton’s should not be given much weight. He was lacking his number one threat in Brandon Marshall.

So both quarterbacks started off with a flop for their new team. The difference between Orton and Cutler is supporting cast. Orton will have at least 4 viable options to throw to during the year, while Cutler will only have 2-3 at best and no real WR threat.

First, both quarterbacks have a running back to dump off to. Last season Forte got a lot of catches and he has proven to be effective out of the backfield. Forte will also look to take some pressure off of Cutler and the weak passing game. Similarly, Orton has a committee of solid running backs who can catch passes and move the chains on the ground. The platoon in Denver includes Knowshon Moreno, Lamont Jordan, Correll Buckhalter and Peyton Hillis. Hillis is particularly intriguing because he doubles as a tight end. Each quarterback has a nice running back option to dump off to, but the advantage on the ground clearly goes to Orton and Denver. The Broncos ranked 12th in rushing yards per game last year despite an injury plagued season. The Bears finished 24th and there is no reason to believe that this will change. Advantage Orton.

Second, both Orton and Cutler have viable options at tight end. However Tony Scheffler in Denver is a better receiving tight end than is Greg Olsen in Chicago. Last season Scheffler had 645 yards receiving compared to Olsen’s 574. This is really a close call, but I give Denver the edge on this category as well. Once again, advantage Orton.

Next, and most important, Orton has proven receivers to throw to while Cutler has a corps of question marks. Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal proved last year that they are capable of making big plays and both are quality NFL receivers. Devin Hester has shown that he is an explosive player with ridiculous open field moves. However Cutler doesn’t need a return man, but a number one receiver. Is Hester a number one? I don’t think so. Brandon Marshall ranked 7th last season for receiving yards among WR with 1265 yards to go along with 6 receiving touchdowns. The number 2 option in Denver, Eddie Royal posted a solid 980 yards receiving to go along with 5 receiving touchdowns. Hester put up mediocre numbers last year with 665 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns. And the number 2 receiver in Chicago? Not a receiver, but a TE. That’s right Greg Olsen ranked number 2 in receiving yards in Chicago and Matt Forte ranked 3rd in receiving for the Bears. This clearly demonstrates a huge advantage for Kyle Orton in Denver.

Finally the Broncos finished 3rd in passing yards per game last season while the Bears finished 25th. That is a HUGE gap between passing offense from last year. I don’t think Cutler has a chance to make that up even if he did have a true number 1 receiver. Without a true number one, he has no chance. Look for Kyle Orton to have a much better year in Denver than Cutler has in Chicago as far as statistics are concerned.

Adam

Jay Cutler is going to have a better year than Kyle Orton this year and you have to look beyond the numbers to understand why. I agree with Chris that what has happened in the preseason thus far is irrelevant because neither played an entire game and neither had all of their weapons available for the game.

The running game- Matt Forte for the Bears is a better back than anything the Broncos have this season. Knowshon Moreno should be an upgrade over what the Broncos had last season, but I felt that Moreno had a disappointing season last year at Georgia and I am not sold on him having a huge season. Chris points out that the Broncos had the 12th best rushing offense in the league last season, but I think this is more due to Cutler’s arm than the backs the Broncos have. Cutler threw over 600 passes last year because Denver used the pass to set up the run. Because Cutler is a Pro Bowl quarterback, this strategy worked and the running game rode the Bronco’s prolific passing offense to a respectable season. Kyle Orton does not have the passing ability to command the attention of the defense and open up the running lanes. With Orton at the helm of the Denver offense, Forte won’t have to face 8 in the box all season and could make the Pro Bowl.
Additionally, Forte is a better receiver than Denver’s backs. Peyton Hillis has shown that he can be a good receiver out of the backfield, but he will not be the feature for the Broncos. Forte showed last season that he is as effective receiving as he is running, and he will be on the field every down, unlike Hillis. Moreno is adequate as a receiver, but he has not proven that he can succeed like Forte did last season.

Tight Ends- Tony Scheffler may have had more yards than Greg Olson last season, but it is not because he is a better tight end. Olson is one of the better receiving tight ends in the NFC and Scheffler was a product of an offense that attacks through the air as much as the Royal Air Force. Scheffler should have a good season again as a safety valve for Orton, especially because he will struggle to hit Brandon Marshall downfield, but Olson will blossom finally playing with a top-tier quarterback. Orton was solid on the intermediate routes that tight ends generally run, but Olson’s game will really open up with Cutler’s ability to throw downfield and stretch the defense as well as his accuracy in threading the needle. Cutler will also be more effective than Orton in the red zone where a big target like Olson could pick up some easy touchdowns.

Receivers- The Broncos have a better corps of receivers than the Bears in theory. Brandon Marshall is the best receiver on either team when he has a good attitude and he stays out of trouble. However, that is far from a sure thing. It will also be interesting to see if Orton will be able to hit Marshall on the deep routes that make him so dangerous. Cutler has the arm strength to take the top off the defense and make a receiver like Marshall dangerous. Orton, however, showed last season that he does not have the top shelf arm to fully utilize a receiver like that. In Chicago last season, Devin Hester’s productivity was greatly reduced because Orton could not throw it deep enough to utilize Hester’s speed. Frequently, Hester would beat the defense only to have Orton underthrow the pass allowing the defense to break it up. I think that Marshall may experience a dropoff in his effectiveness downfield without Cutler throwing him the ball. If this affects his attitude, it could be a very disappointing season as he pouts about his stats and his lack of a new contract. In Chicago, Hester should see a big spike in his statistics as he finally has a quarterback that will be able to connect on the home run with him. Hester will finally be able to realize his full potential as a wide receiver. I do agree with Chris that Eddie Royal could have a big year as an underneath threat for the Broncos because Orton will be forced to throw the short dump-off passes when defenses learn he can’t complete passes downfield. This happened last season in Cincinnati as Ryan Fitzpatrick could not throw the ball downfield. Chad Ochocinco’s production tumbled while underneath receiver T.J. Houshmanzedah has a huge season.

Overall, the Bronco’s offense last season was created by Cutler’s passing ability opening up opportunities for the skill players on the roster. He will bring this ability to get his teammates involved to Chicago. On the other hand, Orton will bring his mediocre skills to Denver where he should put up decent numbers, but nowhere near the numbers Cutler put up in Denver, or what Cutler will put up in Chicago this season. Cutler has the ability to make people better with his skills while Orton simply has limitations to his skills that prevent him from doing the same.

First to Third: Hitting for the Cycle

Am I wrong to think that there have been more players hitting for the cycle this year than usual? After Troy Tulowitzki hit for the cycle on Monday, becoming the sixth player in 2009 to do so, I decided to investigate.

Turns out six cycles for one year is high - about double the average. Retrosheet.org (a phenomenal resource for baseball research) identifies 289 cycles since Curry Foley hit for the first cycle on record, back in 1882. Feels like yesterday... On average, there are 2.75 cycles per year and the last year without a cycle was 1983. Even the strike-shortened year of 1994 had a cycle (Scott Cooper of the Red Sox, if you're wondering). So six is high, but is it the highest? No.

The record for cycles in one season was set back in 1933 when Hall of Famers Mickey Cochrane and Jimmie Foxx accounted for two of the whopping eight cycles that year. In 1890, there were seven cycles headlined by Oyster Burns, who led the National League with 13 home runs and Farmer Weaver, whose six hits in his cycle game was not matched until Ian Kinsler had six hits as part of his cycle game this year. Also in 2009, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel of the Twins became the first pair of teammates to hit for the cycle in the same season since Montreal's Vlad Guerrero and Brad Wilkerson accomplished the feat in 2003. In addition to this year, 1940, 1976, and 2004 also feature six cycles. With a month and a half of baseball left in 2009, can the record be matched?

Who’s Hot and Who’s Not Around the Minor Leagues: Athletics’ Carter is Smokin’

Carter is on one of the hottest streaks by any player this season

After leading the California (CAL) League in Runs, RBIs, HRs and SLG in 2008, it should come as no surprise to see one of the Minor’s best power hitters putting together a ‘Hot’ streak. But in the midst of a 24-game hitting streak where he has posted .479/.551/.840, the A’s Chris Carter is on one of the most torrid streaks put together by any player this year. With his third straight appearance on the ‘Hot’ list, Carter finds his name at the top this week.

Hot Hitters –
1) Chris Carter, 1B, OAK – If Carter’s defense were a tad higher, he would have entered this year as one of the Minor’s top prospects, after the numbers he posted in his 4 season professional career. But likely being limited to a 1B/DH role sets the bar a tad higher for the 22yo prospect. Given the streak that Carter is on, there isn’t likely a bar that can be set high enough. A .569/.627/.1.059 over his last 60 PAs leaves Carter with a 1.006 OPS for the year. Expect the A’s to keep pointing Brett Wallace toward 3B and expect to see Carter in Oakland in September.

2) Alex Liddi, 3B, SEA – Arguably no Minor League prospect has raised their profile more than Liddi this season. Liddi has a projectable frame, solid foot work at 3B and is one of the younger players in the CAL. Yet he has consistently raked all year, to the tune of a 1.065 OPS. For those that would like to chalk up his performance to the High Desert air, his OPS is .921 on the road. Liddi has posted a .436/.522/.821 over his last 50 PAs and is rapidly establishing himself as one of the game’s best prospects.

3) Travis Snider, LF, TOR – With the Jays going nowhere this season, they can hardly be faulted for trying to focus this year on what is best for Snider’s long-term development. Still , with a 1.064 OPS on the year, one has to wonder what has taken the Jays so long to get Snider’s bat back into the Toronto lineup. After posting a .441/.529/.949 over the last two weeks, the wait ends tonight.

4) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT – The 2008 2nd overall pick certainly has his doubters, as they question whether the thickly built Alvarez will be able to turn through the zone quick enough to ever make significant contact or whether he possesses the mobility to play anywhere but first base. Over the first three months of the season, it looked like the detractors might be right, as he posted only an .827 OPS in the Carolina (CAR) League, while fanning in 29% of his Plate Appearances. But the Calendar turned to July and the Bucs promoted Alvarez to Altoona, and he has become a different player, reducing his strikeout rate to 21% since July 1st. A .458/.552/.708 over the last two weeks gives Alvarez a .971 OPS in 151 Eastern (ESL) League ABs. If Alvarez can stay at 3B, he’s one of the Top 10 Prospects in the game. If not, at 22yo, he still is on track to become an above average Major League first basemen.

5) Mike Trout, OF, LAA – Prior to the draft, we had Trout rated as the third best High School hitting prospect available. We felt that the Angels got a bargain when Trout lasted until the 25th overall pick. Since Bobby Borchering and Donovan Tate have yet to sign, we won’t know how they will end up fairing, but for now Trout is the best High School position player, already in the Minors, from the 2009 draft class. Through 107 Arizona (AZL) League ABs, Trout has posted a .972 OPS. More impressive, he is spraying the ball all over the field and controlling the strike zone like a much older player. In the last five years, only Jaff Decker in 2008, Yefri Carvajal in 2007, Matt Sweeney in 2006 and Cedric Hunter in 2006 posted .900-plus OPS as 18yos or younger, and all were nearly 6 months older than Trout is. He looks to be a good one.

6) Angel Morales, OF, MIN – After posting a 1.036 in the Appalachian (APY) League, as an 18yo last season, Morales appeared on the prospect radar screens. With a .640 OPS in the Midwest (MWL) League through June, many began to write Morales off. Since the beginning of July, his OPS has been 1.019. Over the last two weeks, Morales has posted a .438/.471/.750.

7) Buster Posey, C, SFG – Posey has been everything that was advertised when the Giants made him the 5th overall pick in 2008. He has first rate catch and throw skills and better than Major League average offensive skills. After posting a .967 in nearly 300 CAL ABs, the Giants skipped Posey to AAA, where he has posted a .917 OPS as a 22yo. Over the last two weeks he has posted a .341/.400/.707, and he should become the Giants everyday backstop by early 2010. Eventually expect Posey to become one of the top catchers in the game.

8) Carlos Santana, C, CLE – Speaking of high-upside catchers, the Indians thought enough of Santana to deal all-star Victor Martinez to the Red Sox at the trade deadline. His plate discipline is among the best in the Minors, and he is slugging .545 in the Eastern (ESL) League. Over the last two week’s Santana has posted a .388/.474/.612 and now has a .954 OPS on the year.

9) Tony Sanchez, C, PIT – Making it three straight backstops on the list, many, this author included felt it was an extreme over draft when the Pirates made Sanchez the 4th overall pick in June’s draft. It’s not that Sanchez didn’t have first round talent, it was just that there were enough questions about his offense that he should have gone about twenty picks lower. Nonetheless the Pirates selected him and then quickly signed him to a $2.5 million bonus. Thus far it appears like a win for the Pirates as Sanchez has put up a .989 OPS. He should be on the fast track to the big leagues and could see Pittsburgh before the end of the 2010 season.

10) Brandon Waring, 1B/3B, BAL – Regular readers will recall that we have been high on Waring’s offensive skills since his Junior year at Wofford in 2007. Through roughly 1100 professional ABs, Waring hasn’t disappointed, belting 60 home runs and posting an .880 OPS. The question on Waring though, remains his defensive position as LF or 1B appears to be his likely destination. Over the last two weeks, Waring has posted a .347/.429/.755.

11) Jason Heyward, OF, ATL – We’ll make it a Top 11 list this week, just to keep everyone updated on Jason Heyward’s quest to best Andruw Jones’ 157 AB, 1.107 OPS performance in 1996, and put together a historic Southern (SOL) League season by a player younger than 20. Heyward went ‘only’ 9 for 25, with two home runs this week and now has a 1.215 OPS through 111 SOL ABs.


Hot Pitchers –
1) Neftali Feliz, RHP, TEX – Entering the season, the main question was whether or not Feliz would be able to harness his mid-90s fastball to reduce his walk rate and get to the Major Leagues. Now the only question appears to be whether his secondary offerings will continue to develop and make him a front of the rotation stud, or Feliz becomes one of the games better closers. Over the last two weeks, most of it in Arlington, Feliz has a 1.35 ERA, a 0.300 WHIP, with a 8:0 K:BB ratio. On the year Feliz has a 3.40 ERA and he’s still just a 21yo.

2) Matt Way, LHP, PHI – When you are a college Senior, your best pitch is your change, and your fastball sits in the high-80s, you aren’t going to get a lot of attention. Hence the reason the Phillies were able to draft him in the 5th round this year and sign him for only $30,000. Yet in 10 starts between the New York-Penn (NYP) League and the South Atlantic (SAL) League, Way has gotten people’s attention. He has only allowed more than 1 ER once on the year, has a 1.39 ERA, a 0.890 WHIP, with a 63:9 K:BB ratio. Way has allowed 2 ERs in his last 20 IP and has a 31:3 K:BB ratio.

3) Christian Friedrich, LHP – We felt Friedrich was the second best college pitcher available in the 2008 draft, but attending Eastern Kentucky kept him a bit under the radar screen entering the season. Friedrich dominated SAL hitters, fanning 66 in 45 IP. Going to the CAL, we thought he would face a stiffer challenge. So far, not so much. Friedrich has a 1.32 ERA in the hitter friendly California (CAL) League. Over the last two weeks he has put up a, 0.49 ERA, a 1.036 WHIP, with a 29:8 K:BB ratio. CAL hitters are batting a paltry .175 against him.

4) Casey Crosby, LHP, DET – The Tigers top prospect is 4th in the MWL in ERA, 5th in WHIP and 3rd in strikeouts. At 20yo, he has established himself as the circuit’s top pitching prospect, posting a league best ERA since the middle of June (0.78 ERA), and allowing only 1 ER since July 15.. Over the last two weeks, Crosby has posted a 0.00 ERA, a 0.675 WHIP, and a 13:2 K:BB ratio. On the year MWL hitters are batting .196 against him and he has 115 strikeouts in 99 IP.

5) Randall Delgado, RHP, ATL – The 19yo Delgado posted a top 10 age-adjusted season in the DSL in 2007, a top 5 age-adjusted season in the APY in 2008, and thus far has 112 Ks in 102 IP in the SAL this year. With additional projection left in his 6’3 frame, he should eventually have a mid-90s fastball, to go along with secondary offerings that have Major League potential. Over the last two weeks, Delgado has a 1.38, a 0.538 WHIP and a 16:1 K:BB ratio. Still fairly raw, Delgado should be on your radar screen.

6) Anthony Slama, RHP, MIN – Entering the season, during his professional career, Salama had allowed opposing hitters to a .168 average against him and whiffed 13.9 batters per 9IP. With a 2.48 ERA and a 12.8 K/9IP in the ESL this year, Slama looks poised to help the Twins with a September call-up. One of the games better relief pitching prospects, Slama is working on an 11 inning scoreless streak, where he has posted a 1.000 WHIP and a 16:7 K:BB ratio.

7) Jordan Lyles, RHP, HOU – The 18yo Lyles is having an eye-popping season, where he has fanned 146 batters in 123 SAL innings. Over the last two weeks, Lyles has a 1.42 ERA, 0.789 WHIP, with a 21:4 K:BB ratio. The baseball world was certainly surprised when the Astros made Lyles a supplemental 1st round pick in 2008, but, at least for now, it is the Astros that appear to hold the last laugh.

8) Felix Cespedes, RHP, PHI – This week’s ‘Who’s He? Award’ winner, Cespedes was the DSL pitcher who tossed a 9 inning perfect game a couple of weeks ago, only to see his bullpen lose the game in the 10th. With a 6’3 frame that should allow plenty of projection, he currently is posting the Dominican Summer (DSL) League’s best age-adjusted season with a 2.97 ERA and 88 strikeouts in 72 innings. Over the last two weeks, Cespedes has a 0.78 ERA, 0.522 WHIP and a 29:1 K:BB ratio. Oh, did I mention that he’s barely 18yo.

9) Martin Perez, LHP, TEX – Second in the SAL, with a 2.31 ERA, despite being the league’s youngest starting pitcher, Perez hasn’t allowed more than 1 ER in an outing since the calendar turned to July. But that isn’t the real story. The real story is that tonight, the 18yo makes his Texas (TXL) League debut—nearly two full years younger than any other pitcher in the league. Already with a fastball that often touches the mid-90s, and a curve-ball with tremendous late ‘bite’, Perez is remarkably mature beyond his years. When the prospect lists come out this off-season, expect to find Perez in the top half of most top 100s.

10) Jaime Garcia, LHP, STL – A great comeback story, Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery last September and remarkably returned to the mound this July. While control is typically the last thing to return after TJ surgery, Garcia has a 14:1 K:BB ratio in 4 outings since his return. Add to that a 1.64 ERA and a 0.727 WHIP, and the Cardinals should have another quality arm by the start of 2009.


The Nots –
1) Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS – While this is Anderson’s 4th appearance on the list this year, each of the previous times we have cautioned to not worry too much, that he is still just a 21yo, and is already in AA. It’s time to begin to worry. With a .034/.152/.034 performance over the last two weeks, Anderson’s OPS has slipped under .700 OPS for the year. More disturbing is his seemingly AWOL power stroke, as he is slugging only .361 for the year with only 8 HRs in 368 ABs. Anderson has always had a propensity to strikeout (roughly 25% K rate) and improving that will be required to be successful as he moves up, but right now that is the least of his worries. He is easily one of the most disappointing stories of 2009.

2) Brooks Brown, RHP, DET – A supplemental first round pick in 2006, Brown started 2009 by dominating the ESL in 37 innings. A promotion to Toledo has been a bit tougher on the 23yo. Over the last two weeks, Brown has a 9.82 ERA, a 2.864 WHIP with a 1:9 K:BB ratio.

3) Yamaico Navarro, SS, BOS – After a .915 OPS in the Carolina (CAR) League, the Red Sox promoted to the ESL, where things have gone downhill rapidly. Over the last two weeks, Navarro has posted a .119/.178/.143 and is beginning to look like a long-term utility infielder.

4) Esmil Rogers, RHP, COL – The 23yo Rogers opened the 2009 season by dominating TXL hitters, and he looked like one of the organizations top prospects. We’re taking a step back on that since his promotion. Over the last two weeks, Rogers has posted a 11.00 ERA, a 2.222 WHIP and a 6:5 K:BB ratio, leaving him with a 6.75 ERA in the Pacific Coast (PCL) League.

5) Adrian Cardenas, 2B, OAK – The 21yo Cardenas earned himself a promotion to AAA by posting a .838 OPS in the Texas (TXL) League. After 26 games and a .490 OPS, it is beginning to look like it is a little too much, too soon. Cardenas has posted a .122/.200/.122 over the last two weeks.

6) Troy Patton, LHP, BAL – Troy Patton’s comeback from shoulder surgery was one of the feel good stories of the season’s first half. His results since being promoted to the International (INT) League are far less encouraging. A 8.31 ERA, 1.962 WHIP, 5:5 K:BB ratio leaves him with an INT ERA of 6.45.

7) Chris Valaika, SS, CIN – There were many that thought that Valaika would end up as the Reds’ everyday SS by the end of this season. Now they are wondering if he has enough tools to be an everyday player in the Big Leagues. A .180/.180/.200 over the last two weeks has dropped the 23yo’s OPS to .536 on the year. He isn’t really a SS at the next level, and there are serious questions as to how much he will hit.

8) Evan Frederickson, LHP, MIL – Frederickson was the Brewers’ supplemental first round pick in 2008, but he has yet to deliver on his promise. After a 5.06 ERA in his 2008 debut, the 22yo has struggled to a 5.17 ERA this year, with MWL hitters batting .281 against her. Over the last two weeks, Frederickson has a 6.97 ERA, a 2.419 WHIP and a 10:13 K:BB ratio.

9) Juan Duran, OF, CIN – As only a 17yo, it is way too early to read anything substantial into Duran’s long-term future, but his Gulf Coast (GCL) League performance is a stark reminder as to the riskiness in paying huge ($2.0 million) bonuses to 16yo Latin American kids. A .154/.154/.256 over the last two weeks leaves Duran with a .521 OPS in 127 GCL ABs.

10) Jarrod Parker, RHP, ARZ – Those that have seen him pitch this year have called his stuff, arguably the best in the Minor’s. Unfortunately, in his last start he yielded 5 Runs and 8 Hits in 4 innings worth of work. Departing with a ‘sore’ elbow, Parker visited TJ surgeon extraordinaire Dr. James Andrews. The word at the moment is that his season is done but that rest and rehabilitation will be the course of action. These aren’t good signs, but it could be worse.