Fantasy Football Dispute No. 2306-T: SportsJudge.com Rejects Proposed Trade of Brian Westbrook for Several Reserves

SPORTSJUDGE.COM

COURT OF FANTASY FOOTBALL

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -	X	Index No. 2306-T Date: October 30, 2008 League Type: 12 TEAM H-TO-H LEAGUE Dispute: TRADE DISPUTE Judge: MARC EDELMAN COURT OF FANTASY FOOTBALL REJECTS TO PROPOSED TRADE IN ITS ENTIRETY
WICKED THREADZ FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUE Petitioner, - against - REAL MEN OF GENIUS & EXPRESS Respondent	: : : : : : : : : :
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Petitioner, The Wicked Threadz Fantasy Football League, brings this claim in the Court of Fantasy Football, seeking to overturn the trade of Brian Westbrook (RB-Eagles) and the Tennessee Defense from Real Men of Genius to Express in exchange for Ryan Torain (RB-Broncos), Jonathan Stewart (RB-Panthers), Tory Holt (WR-Rams) and Mushin Muhammad (WR-Panthers).

This court fully overturns this trade. The court further rejects the commissioner’s proposed alterative trade.

The Law on Upholding a Trade

This question of when a fantasy sports arbitrator should intervene to overturn a trade is extremely tricky. On one hand, a major part of the fun of fantasy sports involves making trades and taking risks. The minute an outside party steps into the shoes and takes away the right of an individual fantasy team owner to make his own choices, a big part of the game’s fun is lost. However, on the other hand, if an arbitrator approved every single possible trade without regard to the ethical underpinnings of the deal or its impact on the integrity of the league overall, fantasy sports "would deteriorate into nothing more than a collection of near-Ponzi schemes of side dealing, trickery, and deceit." (See Commissioner v. Teams A, B. C & D, Docket No. 1443 (C) (Sept. 9, 2008)). If that were to happen, owners would also lose interest in fantasy sports. This result would be equally problematic.

To allow individual leagues the maximum deference in setting their own criteria for trade approval, SportsJudge.com maintains a policy of first turning to a given league’s constitution to provide guidance about when it should overturn a trade. (See Public Opinion No. 409-T, Commissioner P.K. v. Cartman). Leagues from around the country have adopted a wide range of different language to instruct our court. Some leagues request that SportsJudge.com uphold any trade so long as there is no actual finding of collusion (this standard has led to almost a 100% trade approval rate). Other leagues request that SportsJudge.com reject any trade where there even is the slightest argument of inequality (this leads has led to under a 30% trade approval rate).

Where a fantasy sports league fails to provide SportsJudge.com with a constitutional standard about when to overrule a trade, the SportsJudge.com court becomes forced to apply our default rule. This default rule states that “any fantasy baseball trade shall be upheld as long as the trade adequately benefits both teams.” (See Public Opinion No. 101, Big Red Rockers v. Big City Bombers).

SportsJudge.com arbitrators have long interpreted this rule to mean that a trade shall be upheld as long as there is a reasonable basis that both teams would benefit. Historically, SportsJudge.com have upheld close to 90% of all submitted trades when using this standard.

The Proposed Trade

The proposed trade is a 4-for-2. Express proposes to send to Real Men of Genius:

Player	Preseason Rotowire.com Rank	Current Actual Yahoo! Rank	Wicked Threadz Draft Position
Ryan Torain – RB	Not in Top 150	1692	Not Drafted
Jonathan Stewart -- RB	55	68	47
Tory Holt -- WR	35	181	26
Muhsin Muhammad -- WR	Not in Top 150	72	175

Real Men of Genius proposes to send Express:

Player	Preseason Rotowire.com Rank	Current Actual Yahoo! Rank (based on averages)	Wicked Threadz Draft Position
Michael Westbrook – RB	6	1	3
Tennessee Defense	Not Ranked	63 (third amongst defenses)	Not Drafted

Trade Analysis

Applying the review standard that considers whether this trade adequately benefits both teams, this court does not require that a trade be even; merely that both teams have a reasonable chance of benefiting. Essentially, this requires a level of good faith by all parties involved. It does not come nearly as far as requiring equality.

There is no doubt that Real Men of Genius benefits immensely from acquiring statistically one of the best running backs (Westbrook) and best defenses (Tennessee) in fantasy football this season.

However, unless Westbrook gets injured (and there is no reason to presume that event), there is less than an angstrom of chance that Express would ultimately benefit. Without the proposed trade, Express logically would be expected to start the following players at the applicable for the remainder of the season (factoring in teams that have bye weeks to remainder of the way, and presuming that Larry Johnson misses the rest of the season with a suspension -- a presumption that looks at the trade in its most favorable light):

Position	Week 9	Week 10	Rest of the Way
WR – 1	Roddy White	Roddy White	Roddy White
WR –2	Santonio Holmes	Santonio Holmes	Santonio Holmes
RB – 1	Jamal Lewis	Jamal Lewis	Jamal Lewis
RB – 2	Brian Westbrook	Brian Westbrook	Brian Westbrook
FLEX	Randle El	Henderson	Randle El or Henderson
Defense	Tennessee	Tennessee	Tennessee

After the trade, however, Express instead would start this team:

Position	Week 9	Week 10	Rest of the Way
WR – 1	White	White	White
WR –2	Holmes	Holmes	Holmes
RB – 1	Lewis	Lewis	Lewis
RB – 2	Torain	Stewart	Stewart
FLEX	Holt	Holt or Muhammad	Holt or Muhammad
Defense	WAIVER PICK	WAIVER PICK	WAIVER PICK

Stated otherwise, by making this trade, Express assumes a gaping hole at defense and a substantially weaker running back, while gaining little elsewhere. Even in terms of depth, any gains for Express are questionable. Two of the players that Express acquired are amongst the less than 33% of players in the league that still have their bye weeks lying ahead.

In addition, if you tabulate starting lineups based on average points per week thus far this season (and indeed, that is an imperfect method of projection), this trade will yield Express on average an astounding 15.54 point drop per week.

Old Player	Likely New Player	Average Difference Per Week
Westbrook (20.92)	Stewart (8.31)	Loss of 12.61 points/week
Tennessee (10.50)	Seattle (6.50)	Loss of 4.00 points/week
Holmes (8.59)	Muhammad (9.66)	Gain of 0.93 points/week
		Loss of 15.54 points/week

With that said, there is absolutely no good faith argument that this trade could reasonably benefit Express. This trade is problematic from every possible angle.

The Commissioner’s Proposed Compromise

The second issue this court must discuss is the viability of the Wicked Threadz Fantasy League Commissioner’s good faith effort to produce a compromise solution that would allow for a more reasonable version of this trade. The Commissioner here has suggested removing the Tennessee Defense from the deal and approving this trade as a four-for-one. However, this compromise does not seem to solve the problem, nor is it permissible pursuant to the SportsJudge.com default rules.

While I commend the league commissioner for attempting to play Henry Clay, unless a league constitution explicitly gives a league commissioner power to involve himself in a trade, the commissioner does not have the right do so. While there is no doubt the commissioner had only the best intentions in mind, allowing him to intermingle himself in a trade produces too high risks that the commissioner will substitute his own self-interest for the needs of the respective teams.

In addition, allowing such a remedy encourages teams to propose the most uneven trades imaginable—knowing that if they are seen as too unfair the commissioner would just fix them. Ultimately, it could put the commissioner in the inevitable position of consistently needing to rework trades.

Final Thought

As a final thought, I wish to turn attention now to a comment on the message board from the owner of Real Men of Genius:

Re: some thoughts

Posted by: timmaaay40 (Real Men of Genius)

Message ID: 631 Oct 28 12:24am | Reply | Post | <> | Next >

To [Another Team Owner]: I don't think its (sic) my responsibility not to [rip off] people. If they let it happen then its (sic) their fault not mine. You dont (sic) always have to give something good to get something better. The integrity of this league is still there.

Based upon the SportsJudge.com default rules, that statement is not accurate. While there is nothing wrong with a team making a trade that benefits them far more than their trade partner, our default rules will not allow a trade that does not even lead to a reasonable possibility that both parties would benefit.

If you wish if the future for SportsJudge.com to take a more hands-off approach to trades, you should write that standard directly into the league constitution for next season. That obviously, however, is an issue for you to discuss with your league mates.

Conclusion

For the foregoing reason, the commissioner rejects the proposed trade in its entirety.

The Mulligan: Putting a Premium at Phoenix

I want to start by patting myself on the back for my cleverly alliterative title. I wanted to work "Phil" in there somehow, but couldn't figure it out. I would pay a pretty penny to putt my Pinnacles like Phil in Phoenix. . . Anyway, the Tour heads back to Phoenix this week for the craziest stop on Tour. The fans always come out to party in Phoenix and cheer on the hometown heroes (many PGA players live in the area). TPC Scottsdale is a course of average difficulty and you can expect putting to be the difference this week (and I needed another P for my title). For this reason, I am going with players with hot putters in 2010 who have seen success here in the past.

First, Brian Gay is really emerging as one of the best players on Tour, but there are certain courses that seem to suit him better than others. He has played well so far this year. He plays well at TPC Scottsdale and he finished tied for sixth here last year. He is putting well this season (actually second on Tour) and he has the type of game that is really consistent on the courses he likes. He is a no-brainer this week. My crystal ball (actually an 8 ball that one of my college roomates stole from a bar) tells me he will hoist a trophy this week.

I also expect the best putter on Tour this season, Brandt Snedeker, to play well in Scottsdale. Snedeker has finished 21st or better in four starts in 2010, likely thanks to his solid putting thus far. He did miss the cut here last year, but he finished tied for eighth in 2008. I think he will have a good week.

Phil Mickelson has had an average 2010 to this point, but everyone loves him in Phoenix. Could this be his breakout week? Maybe, maybe not. I am speculating here, but despite his bad putting in 2010 I think Phil will have a good week like he usually does when he converses with the crowd during a tournament.

Sleeper: This week’s sleeper pick is based 100% on a gut feeling. There is no plausible reason for this pick other than the fact that I want to pick him. Boo Weekley is the type of guy who can ride the raucous Phoenix crowd to a good finish intermingled with a few Happy Gilmore style putter-as-bull dances – Ridin’ the Bull Baby.

Update on Ed O'Bannon's Lawsuit Against the NCAA

In the age old debate about compensation for collegiate athletes, score a small victory for the players.  In 2009, former UCLA star Ed O'Bannon filed a class action lawsuit against the NCAA, accusing them of using his likeness and image in video games and memorabilia illegally.  The suit does not impact current collegiate athletes, but contends that the NCAA doesn’t have the right to continue to the player's image once he/she stops playing.  On February 9, 2010, a U.S. District Court Judge denied the NCAA's motion to dismiss the suit, meaning that the case moves forward.

Many video games will contain unlockable, historic teams and while a player's name may not appear directly in the game, when playing as the 1979 Michigan State basketball team, it's pretty easy to figure out who Magic Johnson is.  O'Bannon's suit contends that these players are entitled to compensation.    

Yahoo Sports provides another prime example of how the NCAA could be impacted by this case:

Consider a famous play such as Christian Laettner’s buzzer-beating 3-pointer that lifted Duke past Kentucky in the 1992 NCAA tournament. The footage has been sold by the NCAA to be used in commercial advertisements for nearly two decades. In most cases, neither Laettner, nor any other player in the footage, has been paid. The O’Bannon lawsuit could cause the NCAA to retroactively compensate everyone in the highlight (the UK players guarding Laettner, the bench players, celebrating Duke teammates, etc.) for a cut of the revenue advertisements using that footage generated. Then there’s memorabilia, classic sports television rebroadcasts, in-house ads and so on. (Yahoo Sports)

 The O'Bannon case is a long way from being argued in court, decided and/or appealed, but the ramifications could fundamentally change the NCAA's business model.

Preparing for the Post-Olympic Frenzy

NHL hockey fans across the USA and Canada are well into a weeks worth of Olympic hockey. There's still plenty more to go in what may be known as some of the greatest hockey games in recent memory. This also means that these same fans are sitting and watching their beloved superstars and itching to return to NHL action.

Furthermore, that same wait time is in effect for the NHL General Managers, who cannot make trades until the NHL trade freeze is lifted following the conclusion of the Olympics. GM’s can talk all they want, but can’t submit a single thing to the league until the clock strikes 12 midnight on March 1st.

I can only imagine what the GM’s are going through right now, because it simply has all NHL fans at the edge of their seat. They might be watching Olympic hockey, but all are wondering where certain players are going to end up as a result of the tight 65-hour window following the Olympics. The anxiety is surely building.

If you’re a Maple Leafs fan, you're wondering if the reports are true of Tomas Kaberle possibly sticking around in Vancouver a little longer then anticipated prior to the Olympics starting.

If you’re an Oilers fan, you’re preparing your goodbyes to maybe a half a dozen players, or more?

Florida Panthers fans are just starting to digest the letter sent from the Panthers ownership group. I think it’s fair to say, this ownership group is refreshingly honest and seems to have a real plan in place now. However, was this letter intended to prepare the Panther fans for a shocking Stephen Weiss or Nathan Horton trade?

Pittsburgh Penguins General Manager Ray Shero’s had the green light from owners Ron Burkle and Mario Lemieux to max out on the salary cap. He has done just that, and has a Stanley Cup ring to show for it. However, the Penguins need a shut-down defenseman and a winger for Evgeni Malkin, but first need a partner to help them clear some room. Who leaves Pittsburgh mid next week for cap purposes? Who is on Ray Shero’s radar? Penguin fans are beyond anxious and ready to find out.

Rumor mills are beginning to explode, reporting every single time two GM’s are seen together sipping coffee in Vancouver. These websites are having an effect apparently, because it has people debating feverishly on team message boards. Some of the most off-the-wall deals are being mentioned as potentially taking place when the freeze is lifted. Funny thing is though, there might actually be legs to some of them. It leaves a handful of people really itching for that 65-hour window to start.

The best way to go about this is to sit back and enjoy what’s about to take place in Vancouver. Herb Brooks is surely looking down and asking everyone to do the same. I can promise you an incredible ending to what has been an outstanding Olympics for NHL and KHL players.

Following that, we will get our answers to so many questions around the National Hockey League in a very short period of time. Deals are going to happen as soon as Monday March 1st.

All of that being said, rumor mills don’t have much longer to entertain the NHL fan base. Fans themselves can start the count down. Big ticket players around the league will need to hurry back from Vancouver to start packing. It’s going to get crazy, and I don’t know about you, but I am looking forward to the breaking news to start coming through.

Enjoy the rest of the Olympics, and may the NHL General Managers bring you what you wish for.

Top Spring Training Storylines

It seems like an eternity since the end of the World Series but luckily for baseball fans, spring has arrived.  Pitchers and catchers reported to camp this week, marking the official start of the 2010 baseball season.  Here are some stories to watch this spring:

Where will Johnny Damon sign? Yes, I write about this way too often but it's a big deal.  Damon will likely wind up calling the AL Central home, as his top two suitors are the White Sox and the Tigers.  Detroit is rumored to have offered Damon a two year contract, while the White Sox have offered one year.  My guess is that Damon signs with the Tigers.

Where will Jason Heyward begin the season? Heyward (pictured) is a Braves outfielder and pretty much the consensus top prospect in the game.  Since the Braves took their time with Tommy Hanson last year, I think the Braves would prefer for him to begin the season at AAA, but if he has a great spring, I think there's a chance he makes it to Atlanta to start the season.

What will the Reds get out of Aroldis Chapman?  One thing is for sure and that is Chapman throws hard.  The main knock on him is that his control is sub-par.  The Reds have pretty good starting pitching depth but if Chapman impresses, he could make the rotation as Cincinnati begins the season.  If not, look for him to stick around at extended spring training to hone his control.

Who will be the Yankees Fifth Starter?  For the last few seasons the "Joba Rules" have made non-Yankee fans want to throw up.  It even got so bad that it made Yankee fans sick, too.  Yankee General Manager Brian Cashman proclaimed this off-season that Chamberlain completed his development program and wouldn't face an innings cap.  Chamberlain faces off against Phil Hughes, who will likely face an innings cap this season should he win the job.  The Yankees were relieved to see Chamberlain gain velocity when he moved to a reliever for the postseason.  Look for him to abandon starting and shift to the bullpen full-time.

Will the media leave Mark McGwire alone? Yes, he admitted to steroid use.  So have dozens of other players.  Get over it and let him do his job.

How many people will hate the new spring training/batting practice hat? In keeping with MLB's tradition of trying to make more money, the player's will be wearing an updated spring training/bating practice hat this season.  They change the design every few years and I think this year's hat is particularly atrocious.  There's no need for huge stripes coming down each side of the brim.  Thankfully I don't get to talk about fashion too often in this space but there are just some classic team hats that haven't changes for 100 years that don't need any flare. 

The Mulligan: Accenture Match Play Championship - Can Ogilvy Repeat?

Hello again all you PGA Tour fans. The 2010 season is picking up and The Mulligan is back to provide your weekly previews. If you play fantasy golf, if you are an avid PGA Tour nut wanting in depth analysis, or if you are just a casual golf fan looking for a preview of each week’s big tournament, The Mulligan has you covered.

If you read any of my articles last year, you’ll know that I usually give about 3-4 picks for each tournament along with a sleeper pick. I like to go out on a limb sometimes on my sleeper picks and I had some success doing so last year. So if you are looking for an unusual pick that not many experts are picking, you will enjoy my sleeper picks.

Most of the time I base my picks on several factors that I think are good predictors for success each week. First, I like to pick players with a history of success on a particular course. Some players are extremely effective on some courses and this can be a big advantage when the Tour visits a player’s favorite venue. Second, I look for players on hot streaks. Last year I picked many players during their big runs including Steve Stricker, Hunter Mahan and Brian Gay. Third, some courses shape up nicely for a certain type of game (accurate driving, long high driving, precise iron play, etc.). Fourth, if a course is near a player’s home town, I might give that player a little edge based on the added support from fans and possible familiarity with the course. Finally, sometimes a gut feeling is the tie breaker for close calls (especially with the sleepers).

So lets get 2010's predictions started. This week’s tournament is golf’s version of the NCAA Tournament; The Accenture Match Play Championship in Marana, Arizona. We all know that match play is a different animal than stroke play and some players excel at this format. I will break down the top four seeds and give you my pick for each bracket along with a couple of sleeper picks.

Sam Snead Bracket – (1) Jim Furyk, (2) Paul Casey, (3) Kenny Perry, (4) Sean O’Hair
My Pick – (2) Paul Casey. He had a great run in this tournament last year making it to the finals. I think this could be the start of a good year for Casey.

Gary Player Bracket – (1) Lee Westwood, (2) Henrik Stenson, (3) Geoff Ogilvy, (4) Ernie Els
My Pick – (3) Geoff Ogilvy and his 17-2 match play record are my pick to win the whole thing. He just seems to excel at match play, and if you followed The Mulligan last year you know how much I like his game.

Ben Hogan Bracket – (1) Martin Kaymer, (2) Rory McIlroy, (3) Robert Allenby, (4) Sergio Garcia
My Pick – (5) Lucas Glover. His US Open Championship last year is carrying over into this season and his confidence is very high right now. He had a top-10 at Torrey Pines last month and he is my pick in the Hogan Bracket despite his 0-2 match play record.

Bobby Jones Bracket – (1) Steve Stricker, (2) Padraig Harrington, (3) Ian Poulter, (4) Robert Karlsson
My Pick – (9) Mike Sim. This is the best young player in the game in my opinion. He was the Nationwide Tour money winner last year and he has a 2nd place finish on the PGA circuit already this year. Watch out for him this week and the rest of the season. He is legit.

Sleepers –
Zach Johnson. The always dangerous Johnson drew the 6 seed in the Sam Snead Bracket. He was put out by a hot Phil Mickelson in last years event and he has had a nice break to prepare for the course and the match play format. He could make some noise in this tournament.

Dustin Johnson. He drew the 11 seed but he should be much higher. Johnson is very hot right now coming off the Pro Am. I think he can take the 6 seed Villegas in the Gary Player Bracket and make a tournament run.

Fantasy Basketball Dispute No. 5551-T: SportsJudge.com Court Rejects Trade of C. Billups for M. Ginobili & B. Haywood

SPORTSJUDGE.COM COURT OF FANTASY BASKETBALL

Index No. 5551 - T
Date Rendered: Feb. 2010
Date Issued: Feb. 2010
Dispute: TRADE REVIEW
Authoring Judge: MARC EDELMAN

TRADE IS REJECTED

The SportsJudge.com Court of Fantasy Basketball has rejected the trade of Brendan Haywood (C, Dallas Mavericks) and Manu Ginobili (SG, San Antonio Spurts) from Walking Wounded to Overhand Express for Chauncey Billups (PG, Denver Nuggets).

The trade has been rejected because it raised the following red flags for collusion: (1) uneven number of players traded per team; (2) highest ranking player moving from a team relatively out of prize contention to a team in prize contention; and (3) team trading the higher-ranking player is not returning to the league next year. Stated otherwise, this trade does not have a reasonable likelihood of benefiting Walking Wounded.

_____________________________________

Opinion No. 5551-T (Basketball), by Hon. Marc Edelman, Founder & CEO: SportsJudge.com

The general rule of the SportsJudge.com Court of Fantasy Football is to uphold any trade that could reasonably benefit both teams. See Big Red Rockers v. Big City Bombers, Index No. 101 (August 14, 2004).

In examining whether a team derives some benefit from a trade, the standard requires the Court to consider not only the quality of the players involved, but also the context of the trade. See generally Team Anadrol v. Vegas Baby & Flathead Yankees, Index No. 955-C (Nov. 4, 2007).

The reason for this standard is not to take away team’s rights to make independent decisions, but rather to ensure the sanctity of the game itself. See Commissioner v. Parkstarz & Fuall, Index No. 5287-T (Nov, 13, 2009).

Here, the league’s second place team, Walking Wounded (77 points, 2 points out of 1^st) has proposed trading Brendan Haywood (Yahoo! Rank 78, 9.8 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.1 blocks) and Manu Ginobili (Yahoo! Rank 44, 13.8 points, 4.6 assists, 1.5 steals) to the league’s seventh place team Overhand Express (51.5 points, 27.5 points out of first, 11.5 points out of prize money) for Chauncey Billups (Yahoo! Rank 8, 19.8 points, 2.3 3’s/game, 6.1 assists) ).

For Walking Wounded, this trade makes perfect sense both for this season and beyond:

• For this season, Walking Wounded gets a gigantic upgrade at the guard position by swapping Ginobili for Billups. Meanwhile, the loss of Haywood is largely irrelevant given Walking Wounded has several reserve centers of nearly equal ability to Haywood, including Elton Brand and Channing Frye.

• For the future, Walking Wounded gets a much needed second keeper to go along with Dwayne Wade. Without this trade, Walking Wounded would not have any other bona-fide Top 24 player to maintain for next year.

For Overhand Express, the trade makes very little sense:

• For this season, Overhand Express is unlikely to gain any points from this trade. While Haywood is a known asset in both the rebounds and blocks category, his addition to Overhand Express’s roster will mean a nearly equal caliber player will need to be moved to the bench, thus minimizing any gain. In addition, Overhand Express is so far behind most of the league’s other teams in blocks that even adding Haywood is unlikely to make a dent into that category.

• For the future, Overhand Express has traded away the team’s clearly best keeper, without receiving a keeper in return.

While this court attempts to afford teams broad latitude to make their own decisions, this trade seems highly questionable because the same team (Overhand Express) seems to obtain the overwhelming benefit of this deal both for 2010 and future seasons. Further, this trade presents three red flags that collusion here was likely:

• There was an uneven number of players traded per team (which is often used as a way to move a top player to a different team in disguise);

• The highest ranking player in this trade is moving from a team relatively out of prize contention to a team in prize contention (something one would not expect to find in a keeper league where each team can keep any two players without salary values being considered); and

• The team trading the higher-ranking player is not returning to the league next year (making it almost certain that owner is unconcerned with the long-term prospects of this trade.

For each of the foregoing reasons, this proposed trade is REJECTED.

Olympic Hockey Preview

The 2010 Olympic Games from Vancouver are underway and the NHL has entered a two-week hiatus to allow stars from around the world to compete. With competition beginning on Tuesday afternoon, SportsJudge chatted with Olympic hockey expert Timo Seppa to get his take on the Games:

SportsJudge: Typically the Olympic Games are played on a much larger ice surface than what is standard in the NHL. Since these games are being played in Canada, that will not be the case. What impact will the normal NHL-sized ice surface have on the Games?

Timo Seppa: I love international ice and long for it every time it's missing from the tournament. The NHL's done a nice job of opening up the game since the lockout, taking away all the clutching and grabbing--from this point of view, the lockout was actually a great success--but going to international ice in the NHL would make the game even faster and more offensively-oriented.

With less room to move, what teams will this hurt the most? What teams will benefit?

Speed and skill teams like Russia and Sweden would have benefited from international ice. I'd say the US and Finland are two of the winners. Since 1980, the only time the US has medalled in recent history was in Salt Lake City, on the NHL-sized rink.

The NHL has halted league play for Olympic participation since 1998, but hinted it may not for the 2014 Games in Sochi, Russia. Will the outcry from Russian superstars like Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin force the owner's to give in?

Bettman and the powers that be would be nuts to forgo the Olympics in the future. It's not like folks rip it like the World Baseball Classic (with injury concerns). The rest of the hockey world sure as heck cares about the Olympics. I can't think of anything better--even Stanley Cup playoffs--than say, Canada vs. the United States, Russia vs. the Czech Republic or especially, Sweden vs. Finland.

In the 1988 Games in Calgary, Team Canada was favored on home ice, yet left with a disappointing 4th place finish. Is this the year Canada finally wins Gold at home?

Canada's clearly one of the four favorites, with Russia, Sweden, and USA. Puck Prospectus has picked Russia as the gold medal favorite. I admit, they are stronger at goaltender (Evgeni Nabokov and Ilya Bryzgalov) and defense (Andrei Markov and Sergei Gonchar) than usual, but I like Sweden to repeat. No team has the kind of crazy quality depth they do with the Sedin twins, Daniel Alfredsson, Nicklas Backstrom, Nicklas Lidstrom, rookie Patric Hornqvist, the wily old Peter Forsberg and of course Henrik Lundqvist in net.

What will it take for USA to knock off Canada?

For Ryan Miller or Tim Thomas to stand on his head, because Team USA's defense is their weakness. Also, with checking-oriented 3rd and 4th lines (shocking choices like Chris Drury and Ryan Callahan over the likes of Bill Guerin and Scott Gomez), those checking lines will need to do their job of shutting down the opposition's stars. But yes, Team USA is capable of beating anyone in the tournament, I'm just not sure they pull off two or three games in a row like that against the big boys.

Besides USA-Canada, what's one game in the preliminary round that fans should be sure to watch?

I'm biased, but Sweden-Finland is a grudge re-match from the 2006 Finals. I don't think the Swedes have so much of a problem with the Finns, but the Finns definitely have a Little Brother complex when it comes to Sweden. That game, along with USA-Canada, should be for secondary round byes, unless someone's faltered in their earlier games. The situation in Group B, with Russia, Czech, and Slovakia is more muddied.

It should be a great, great tournament. I'm really looking forward to it.

______________________________

Timo Seppa is a Finnish-born hockey writer at Puck Prospectus who also runs the statistical website Ice Hockey Metrics. Timo represents Puck Prospectus in the SportsJudge.com Fantasy Hockey Challenge.

Surveying the Aftermath in Atlanta Post-Kovalchuk

When the Atlanta Thrashers traded Marian Hossa to the Pittsburgh Penguins two trade deadlines ago, it was very clear that superstar forward Ilya Kovalchuk was the face of this franchise for many years to come...or not.

Until just days ago, General Manager Don Waddell didn’t realize that not even 100 million dollars would keep the Russian phenom around. Yes, that’s what was offered to Mr. Kovalchuk hours before being dealt to the New Jersey Devils in a 5-player trade.

Many have argued since the breaking news hit just about every single website related to the sport of hockey a couple weeks ago, that GM Don Waddell simply didn’t get enough assets in return for a hockey player who was supposed to be the key to not only winning hockey games, but keeping the Thrashers in Georgia for years to come. I have to agree with a large population of bloggers and NHL media, that Waddell didn’t get enough assets in return, and their future success plans hit a snag; but I can also guarantee one thing, Don Waddell had no other choice but to make this deal and somehow add pieces to the puzzle that may just work.

Forwards Nicklas Berfors, prospect Patrice Cormier, and defenseman Johnny Oduya along with a 1st round pick in 2010 were acquired for Ilya Kovalchuk. I think everyone was shocked at first, expecting to see the likes of promising, proven prospects like Wayne Simmonds or Jack Johnson. Hey, maybe even Scott Hartnell or Simon Gagne. Listen, those deals simply were not going to happen. Period, end of story. There were deals supposedly in the works for weeks, but in the end, a large percentage of those deals were merely the fantasies of fans and the media.

This is reality hockey fans, and this is what Don Waddell was faced with and had to do.

Bergfors, a 2005 draft pick from Sweden, has 28 points in his rookie season and had to be a part of any deal involving NJ.

The Captain of Team Canada in the 2010 World Junior Championship, Patrice Cormier, has been suspended the rest of the 2009-2010 season for the elbow to the head of an opposing player, but let’s not let that blind us from the fact that this player has a great skill set, a physical presence, and great size at 6’1 205.

Defensemen Johnny Oduya was a popular player in New Jersey, but hardly a top 3 guy on the blueline. What Oduya will provide Atlanta with is a solid defenseman with great shutdown instincts. He has skating ability, but will never be mistaken for an offensive type player. Oduya is a great teammate and leader, and will make an impact almost immediately in Atlanta.

The 1st round pick will fall in the range of 25th-30th. There are no guarantees here. Waddell has no idea how the chips may fall, but it’s a 1st round pick nonetheless, and it needs to be picked wisely.

If you briefly look back at the Atlanta-Pittsburgh blockbuster trade involving Marian Hossa, only thrashers forward Colby Armstrong plays regularly. Forward Eric Christiansen has bounced around the league and is currently a New York Ranger, and prospect Angelo Esposito is constantly injured. This deal was difficult to accept at the time and still haunts the Thrashers today. This deal also contributes to the irate reaction from fans in Atlanta over the Kovalchuk deal. Rightfully so.

However, the Thrashers have a better mix of players now than they did two years ago. The only problem is, they still aren't winning enough hockey games. Even with Kovie in the lineup, the same problem still exists.

So where do you go from here?

Don Waddell must continue to overhaul this roster. There is a good mix in Atlanta right now, but other moves must be made to improve this roster from top to bottom. The Kovalchuk deal needs to be one of many that will deepen a questionable depth chart.

Kari Lehtonen's days were numbered as he conditioned with Chicago of the AHL, and now they are over. Lehtonen is officially a Dallas Star after a trade that sent the terribly injury-prone, yet still promising goaltender to the Stars in exchange for a 4th round pick in 2010 and up-and-coming defenseman IvanVishnevskiy.

Ondrej Pavelec and Johan Hedberg are by no means the long-term tandem moving forward between the pipes. At this point however, Waddell needs to continue to deepen the talent pool in Atlanta, and the two goaltenders he has now, well let's just say it's worked for so far this season.

The Atlanta Thrashers are a game over.500. They are four points removed from the 8th and final playoff spot. With 24 games remaining in the 2009-10 season, the Thrashers ultimate goal is to make the playoffs. It's certainly reachable, and it's not totally far fetched at this point.

Don Waddell will need to continue to find trading partners, and add more pieces to the puzzle in Atlanta. He has learned from past mistakes, and can't afford to make new ones. As this hockey club battles for a playoff spot, players will come and go from now until the March 3rd trade deadline. One thing we can assume at this point, they have a better variety of players now then ever before. That list will grow larger as Don Waddell continues to get the big picture.

Fantasy Hockey Pickups: Week 19

Welcome to Week 19 of Fantasy Hockey Pickups. This is the last week for games in the NHL before the Olympic break. With only 3 weeks left in the regular season, it's down to the wire to secure that playoff spot and prepare for the playoffs. Here are some players you may want to consider to give you that extra boost in your lineup.

Forwards

Mike Knuble - RW - (WAS): Mike Knuble had 3G, 3A, 19PIM, 2PPP, 1GWG, and was a +7 last week. Overall he has 21G, 18A, 49PIM, 9PPP, 5GWG, and is a +22. Knuble is on fire as of late and playing on the high-powered offensive Capitals team doesn't hurt either. Knuble should surpass his career point high of 55 points this year and is worth a look, especially in deeper leagues. He is available in 26% of Yahoo Leagues.

Jussi Jokinen - LW - (CAR): Jussi Jokinen had 3G, 2A, 2PPP, 1GWG, and 12SOG, and was a +2 last week. Overall he had 20G, 24A, 26PIM, 17PPP, 4GWG, 110SOG, and is a +4. Jokinen is currently riding a 6 game point streak and is one of the hottest players in the league right now. Jokinen is definitely worth a look if available while hot. He is available in 55% of Yahoo Leagues.

Jason Arnott - C - (NSH): Jason Arnott had 1G, 3A, 2PIM, 3PPP, 15SOG, and was a +1 last week. Overall he has 14G, 19A, 24PIM, 11PPP, 2GWG, 163SOG, and is a +7. Arnott had a big week last week and has been a consistent contributor so far this season. He is available in 64% of Yahoo Leagues.

Guillaume Latendresse - LW,RW - (MIN): Guillaume Latendresse had 2G, 1A, 1PPP, 1GWG, 12SOG, and was a +1 last week. Overall he has 16G, 8A, 3PPP, 3GWG, and 85SOG in 33 games since joining the Wild. Latendresse continues to be a producer since joining Minnesota and is a decent option to have on your team. He is available in 71% of Yahoo leagues.

Matt Duchene - C - (COL): Matt Duchene had 1G, 2A, 2PIM, 1PPP, and was a +5 last week. Overall he has 18G, 21A, 10PIM, 14PPP, 1SHG, 1GWG, and 115 SOG. This rookie leads the Avs with 18G and also leads all rookies with 38 points. He is available in 76% of Yahoo Leagues.

Curtis Glencross - LW - (CGY): Curtis Glencross had 3G, 1A, 2PIM, 1PPP, and was a +2 last week. Oveall he has 14G, 14A, 49PIM, 4PPP, 2SHG, 2GWG, 103SOG, and is a +7. Glencross got his first career hat trick last week and has been able to turn it up a notch lately. He is worth some consideration, especially in deeper leagues, as he has the potential to score in every scoring category. He is available in 92% of Yahoo Leagues.

Michal Handzus - C - (LA): Michal Handzus had 3G, 3A, 2PPP, 1GWG, and was a +2 last week. Overall he has 15G, 18A, 34PIM, 7PPP, 2SHP, 6GWG, and is a +5. Handzus has had 2 straight 3 point games, and as had 4G and 4A in the last 5 games. Handzus would be a great pick-up right now while riding on this hot streak. He is available in 93% of Yahoo Leagues.

Jamie Benn - LW - (DAL): Jamie Benn had 3G, 1A, 2PIM, 1PPP, 10SOG, and and was a +3 last week. Overall he has 13G, 14A, 34PIM, 6PPP, 1GWG, and 127SOG so far in his first year in the NHL. Benn seems to be an up and coming player for the Stars and if he can keep it up is worth some consideration. He is available in 95% of Yahoo Leagues.

Defensemen

Joni Pitkanen - D - (CAR): Joni Pitkanen had 1G, 2A, 12PIM, 1PPP, and 10SOG last week. Overall he has 3G, 30A, 64PIM, 15PPP, and 123SOG. Pitakanen, although a +/- risk, does provide a lot of offensive potential on the blue-line. He is available in 45% of Yahoo Leagues.

Mark Giordano - D - (CGY): Mark Giordano had 2G, 2PIM, 2PPP, and 1GWG last week. Overall he has 10G, 15A, 61PIM, 12PPP, 77SOG, and is a +4. Giordano sees alot of time on the PP and that is where most of his points are scored. He is a decent option on defense. He is available in 66% of Yahoo Leagues.

Tom Poti - D - (WAS): Tom Poti had 1G, 3A, 2PIM, 1PPP, and was a +4 last week. Overall he has 3G, 18A, 30PIM, 6PPP, was is a +21. Poti is a good source for +/- points playing for the high powered offense of the Washington Capitals. Poti would be a good fill-in for fone of your injured blue-liners. He is available in 76% of Yahoo Leagues.

Sami Salo - D - (VAN): Sami Salo had 3A, 2PPP, 10SOG, and was a +1 last week. Overall he has 5G, 13A, 10PIM, 8PPP, 1GWG, 82SOG, and is a +16. Salo seems to have turned things around after an early season slump and is a nice option on defense. He is available in 84% of Yahoo Leagues.

Goalies

Jean-Sebastien Giguere - G - (TOR): J.S. Giguere after being traded from the Ducks, started 2 games for the Leafs last week and had 2W, 0.00GAA, 1.00SV%, and 2SHO. Giguere will now get more than his fair share of starts in Toronto and looks to be quite comfortable between the pipes for the Leafs. He is definitely worth a pickup is availble in your league. He is available in 51% of Yahoo Leagues.

Notable Injuries

Marc-Andre Bergeron -D - (MTL): Lower Body - IR as of 2/5.

Rene Bourque - RW - (CGY): Shoulder - DTD as of 2/6.

Tomas Holmstrom - RW - (DET): Left Leg - DTD as of 2/6.

Niklas Kronwall - D - (DET): Lower Body - DTD as of 2/3.

Cam Ward - G - (CAR): Upper Body - DTD as of 2/5.

Good Luck with your match-ups this week and enjoy the Olympics!