The Mulligan: Shell Houston Open

This week the Tour makes a stop in Houston for the Shell Houston Open. This is one of those courses where certain players just play well for whatever reason. I look for players with past success to have similar results this year.

Hunter Mahan has a great track record here and he is playing well. He finished last season very well and I think he is going to play that way for the entire 2010. Hunter Mahan is the real deal on the PGA Tour and he is a no brainer when playing on a course that he loves. Look for Mahan to get his 2nd win of the season sometime soon. Will it be this week?

Unless you have been living under a rock, you should know that Ernie Els is going to play well this week. Have you been watching him recently? If not, you should check out the Big Easy's smooth swingin' game this week. He is one of my favorite players to watch when he is on. And he is ON!

Paul Casey won here last year. If you are a regular follower of The Mulligan, you know that I pick Casey quite a bit and that I am very fond of his game and think he is one of the nicest guys on Tour. He tied for fourth at the Honda, and sixth at Doral. I am pulling for him this week.

SLEEPER: Fred Couples should not be overlooked this week. He finished in the Top 5 here in each of the past two years. Also, he is playing better than the Butler Bulldog basketball team (whom I am cheering for to win it all) right now. He has won, not one, not two, but THREE STRAIGHT wins on the Champions Tour.

Fantasy Football Dispute No. 2602: SportsJudge.com Orders "King Solomon" Split of Championship Bracket

SPORTSJUDGE.COM

COURT OF FANTASY FOOTBALL

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -	X	Index No. 2602 Date: December, 11 2008 League Type: H-2-H FOOTBALL Dispute: RULES DISPUTE Judge: MARC EDELMAN COURT ORDERS THAT THE LEAGUE PLAYOFF BRACKET SHALL BE SPLIT INTO TWO SEPARATE BRACKETS, EACH FUNDED WITH 50% OF THE PRIZE MONEY.
DOUG M. Petitioner, - against - ADAM S. Respondent	: : : : : : : : : :
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -	X

BACKGROUND

Petitioner Doug M. and Respondent Adam S. are competitors in the Bring Back Favre Keepers League, a head-to-head fantasy football league that is hosted by the CBS Sports “Commissioner” service. The league only has a rudimentary constitution, which was created using a CBS Sports template. However, the league involves a significant amount of money. The league entry fee is $175 per team, with prize payouts of $1400 to the league champion, $350 for the runner-up, and $220 for the team with the best regular season record.

Last weekend, Doug M. and Adam S.’s teams met in the first round of the bracketed playoff tournament. Astoundingly, the game ended in a tie. The league is now unsure of how to proceed.

Heading into last week’s games, Adam S.’s team had a better regular-season record, but Doug M.’s team had more points. Both argue on those grounds that there team should advance into the next round.

This court took jurisdiction to address the following two questions:

1. Is there are written agreement that determines which of these two teams shall advance into the next round of the playoffs?

2. If there is no written agreement on this issue, what is the fairest way to proceed?

ANALYSIS

I. Is There a Written Agreement about which Team Should Advance?

The first issue for the court to consider is whether there is a written agreement that determines which team should advance. The starting point (and ending point) for this review is always the language in the league constitution. (See Tom L. v. Commissioner, Index N. 2305, Oct. 29, 2008). However, here, all that exists is a very rudimentary constitution, created in conjunction with the CBS Sports Commissioner service. The only language in the constitution with respect to breaking ties states as follows: “"Ties in the standings are resolved in this order: Winning Percentage, Total Points."

I invited both parties to brief the issue about whether this clause is intended to apply to ties in a game, as well as to ties in overall record. Neither party chose to brief the issue. This court – upon its own best judgment – therefore concludes that the plain meaning of the text applies only to standings, and does not apply to deciding a single game. Hence, the writing in the league constitution does not address which team shall advance into round two of the playoffs.

II. Given the Constitution is Silent, What is the Fairest Way to Proceed?

Given the league constitution is silent on what team shall advance in the playoffs, this court next turns to equitable principles, and including custom, usage, past dealings, and, if necessary, the cy pres doctrine.

1. Custom, Usage and Past Dealings
   

As a general matter, when a contract is silent on any particular issue, a court turns to custom, usage and past dealing to determine what serves as the best default provision. (See Tom L. v. Commissioner, Index N. 2305, Oct. 29, 2008). In other words, the next question for this court to consider is what serves as the standard practice in the fantasy sports marketplace for breaking playoff ties.

Upon the court’s review, it takes judicial notice to the fact that both custom and usage on this issue are mixed throughout the fantasy sports. According to games hosted by ESPN, “in the event that two teams have the same number of points at the conclusion of their playoff game, the system tiebreaker awards the win to the higher seeded team.” (www.espn.com). According to Yahoo, the first tie breaker is “most touchdowns scored by entire starting roster.” (www.yahoo.com). Meanwhile, in CBS Money Leagues – a distinctly different product, with a distinctly different Constitution from CBS Commissioner Leagues – the team with the most combined passing, rushing and receiving yards proceeds to the next round. (http://football.sportsline.com/splash/football/spln/single/rules). Furthermore, a brief survey of my colleagues shared with me the wide range of tie-breakers they use in their leagues (playoff bench scoring, regular season winning percentage, regular season points, coin toss).

This all goes to tell you is that there us no standard custom, usage, or past dealing for the court to reply upon. Further, to adopt any one of these three standards to resolve a past event would be wholly arbitrary. Irrespective of what standard this court chooses, it clearly would not represent the parties’ spoken, or even latent, intent.

2. Cy Pres Doctrine

Given custom, usage, and past dealings each provide little guidance, the court has no alternative but to shift next to the doctrine of cy pres. The doctrine of cy pres means that the court recognizes that there is no perfect solution, and therefore it will adopt a solution that is as close as possible to the parties’ interests, goals and intent.

While so much of fantasy football is about competing against friends, this particular league is also clearly about money (a $175 is a real investment). With that it mind, the court recognizes that any cy pres remedy should be one that closest approximately the reasonable monetary expectations of each party based on the actual performance of the teams in round one of the playoffs.

While Israel’s great King Solomon once decided that splitting a baby is not the right way to resolve a dispute over the baby’s true mother, here the court concludes (sincerely no less) splitting a playoff bracket into two solves the problem just fine. Unlike a baby, a bracket is not alive. Two playoff brackets therefore can thrive alongside one another.

Therefore, rather than arbitrarily picking one to advance between Doug M. and Adam S., this court rules the fantasy bracket shall be split into two – “Bracket A” and “Bracket B”. Both brackets shall be absolutely identical to one another in all respects, except that Doug M. advances in Bracket A, and Adam S. advances in Bracket B. The prize money for the winner of Bracket A shall be $700 to the league champion, and $175 to the runner-up. The same shall be true for Bracket B. Indeed, a single owner can, and probably will, win both brackets. In that case, that owner collects the full $1400. However, based on this setup, neither Doug M. nor Adam S. is eligible to win more than $700. This is the mathematically proper outcome, and a fair one to boot. (Indeed, should Doug M. and Adam S. both lose this week, the brackets again become identical and merge back into one).

This solution is completely fair for not only to Doug M. and Adam S., but also for all remaining playoff teams. Indeed, for the team that is forced to play Doug M. and Adam S. simultaneously this week, there is no disadvantage to doing so. In fact, that team is better hedged against risk because even if that team were to lose to one of its two opponents under the split-bracket format, that owner remains in the running for $700 of prize money in the other bracket.

Furthermore, even though this solution leads to one more team using the waiver wire in the upcoming weeks, the court finds this effect de minimis, especially since it has already instructed Doug M. and Adam S. to continue using the waiver wire all week.

Finally, setting up two brackets and keeping track of the results may at first sound a bit confusing to any league commissioner. Therefore, if you are not sure how to do so, please send me your current playoff bracket with the teams that remain, and I will provide you with the duel bracket to use moving forward.

CONCLUSION

For the foregoing reasons, this court orders the Bring Back Favre Keepers League playoff bracket shall be split into two playoff brackets “A” and “B,” with equal prize money funded to each bracket. All playoff teams shall be seeded identically in both brackets and shall be entitled to win all prize money from both brackets, except Doug M. shall be seeded only in “Bracket A” and Adam S. shall be seeded only in “Bracket B.”

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Minor League Beat: Twenty Rookies to Watch

Brian Matusz looks to have a huge jump on the A.L. Field

For the record, I hate these kind of articles. You know the ones where you have to predict what will happen. See that’s not really what we do here. We don’t tell you what will happen…instead we tell you the likelihood of a particular thing happening. Yet, because we are all about projecting which prospects will have Major League success, we feel obliged to try to ‘predict’ who will be the 2010 rookies that will have impact this season.

You think it is an easy task? For starters, over the last eight seasons (2002-2009), how many Rookie of the Year award winners were ranked in Baseball America’s Top 25 prospects at the beginning of the season? You can find the answer below. What I will tell you is that 38% of the winners weren’t even ranked in Baseball America’s Top 100, and the average ranking by a R.O.Y. was 69th. While being an impact rookie requires some degree of skill, what it requires more is opportunity for playing time and the good fortune to not get hurt. So as we write this, the numbers tell us that the top half of the players listed here, by long-term prospect value, when considered as a group, has little more than a 10% chance of actually winning the award. We are setting ourselves up for a losing proposition before we ever get started. Nonetheless, we have been polishing our crystal ball, and combined with our group think guesses at likely playing time, have come up with the players that we believe will have the greatest positive impact on their Major League teams this season. Without any further whining, here is our list:

American League

1) Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL – This one seems intuitively easy for us. Matusz has nailed down a rotation spot. He has already demonstrated success at this level that should ensure that he keeps the spot for the entire season, and he is a talented prospect with a very high-floor. You are looking at the A.L. Rookie of the Year…right?

2) Austin Jackson, CF, DET – We ranked Jackson at #92 on our Top 500 list, and many of you thought that was too high. Jackson has had a strong spring and has a virtual lock on the CF job in Detroit. With little competition, there will be little pressure, and he should come out of the gate performing. Don’t expect a ton, but 20SBs, with 12-15HRs and a .750 OPS over a full-season isn’t bad.

3) Michael Brantley, OF, CLE – Brantley just missed our Top 100 list and isn’t likely to get more than about 400ABs, as the Indians will try all season long to find better options. But this is another high-floor prospect with opportunity, and that should translate into 20-25 SBs and a relative light in the power categories .750 OPS.

4) Wade Davis, RHP, TBR – Regular readers of this space already understand that we don’t even believe that Davis is one of the Rays’ five best starting pitchers, so if we were looking at long-term potential, he would be much further down on this list. The fact remains that he has already experienced a taste of Major League success and will open the season as the Rays #5 starter. Barring injury, we don’t see Hellickson or Moore replacing him this season, so he should be good for 25-30 starts. That should produce an ERA in the mid-4.00s with a WHIP around 1.40 and 130Ks…we don’t see another AL pitcher likely to have that kind of success any further down this list.

5) Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TBR – Hellickson would be our choice for the Rays rotation now, but since he will likely not receive a call-up until one of the other starters goes down, it limits what his contribution is likely to be this year. He should be good for about 80-90 innings though with the same number of strikeouts, and peripherals that far exceed Davis’.

6) Neftali Feliz, RP, TEX – It amazes us when logic and reasoning overtake Major League organizations, but we have been calling for the Rangers to do what they did (insert Matt Harrison in the rotation and keep Feliz in the bullpen) ever since Spring Training began. Don’t get us wrong, Feliz can, and likely should, develop into a lights-out closer, but we just don’t see his ‘stuff’ making it multiple times through a lineup and the bullpen is his best role. Unfortunately for Feliz, that means 2010 will likely be spent in a set-up role—minimizing his impact.

7) Carlos Santana, C, CLE – If Santana were to have started the season in Cleveland, he would have likely been #2 on this list. Instead, we aren’t likely to see him in the Major Leagues until early June. That places a likely ceiling on him of less than 300 ABs. That should still be enough for him to reach double digits in home runs and post a near .800 OPS.

8) Hector Rondon, RHP, CLE – Rondon will begin the season in AAA, in the rotation. While an injury could get him to the Big Leagues sooner, he should be in Cleveland, either in a starting or bullpen role, by early June. He is one of the Tribe’s four best starting pitchers, and they will figure it out before season’s end. It will be likely too late though to see more than 70 innings and 60 K’s with a 4.00 ERA.

9) Scott Sizemore, 2B, DET – The Tigers were bound and determined to put Sizemore in their everyday lineup and ‘by golly’ they have gone and done it—despite a .637 OPS this spring. His ceiling is no more than that of a League average middle infielder, and though he will likely get 450 ABs, don’t expect more than about 10HRs and 10SBs with a less than .700 OPS for the effort. Our guess is that Detroit looks for a different option for 2011.

10) Michael Taylor, OF, OAK – There are a number of directions we could have gone for this 10th spot, but we decided to go with a player that should post strong numbers when he opens the season in AAA, and has only mediocre competition at the Major League level. No one that the A’s have should stand in Taylor’s way past June, and we could see a 10 HR with .800 OPS effort in 300 ABs once he gets there.

Others who are absent from the list:

Desmond Jennings, OF, TB – battling his own injuries and a formidable starting OF in Tampa, Jennings needs help to create an opportunity.

Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX – Chris Davis should bounce back, and Smoak will have to first demonstrate that AAA is no problem for him when he is healthy. Together they are likely to delay his arrival until mid-season.

Dan Hudson, RHP, CHA – It was a whirlwind 2009 where all the stars aligned. Hudson’s ceiling isn’t that high, and 2010 will prove to be more difficult.

Carlos Carrasco, RHP, CLE – May get a shot this year in the bullpen, but Rondon is a better option.

Jake Arrietta, RHP, BAL – There is just too much talent ahead of him in the organization and he will have to wait for his chance.

Adam Moore, C, SEA – Looks to have the #1 catching job in Seattle to open the season and still can’t crack this list…that should tell you all that you need to know.

National League

1) Jason Heyward, OF, ATL – Heyward enters the season as the #1 prospect, has an everyday job locked up, and has had a phenomenal Spring. While the National League rookie talent is much tougher competition than the American League, everything lines up to make Heyward the favorite.

2) Stephen Strasburg, RHP, WSN – We still believe that Strasburg was the best college pitcher ever selected in the draft, but he isn’t likely to see the Majors before mid-May. We expect him to roll once he gets there, and he should still get 18-20 starts. That should leave him with 140 Ks and an ERA in the upper 3.00s.

3) Jaime Garcia, LHP, STL – There is a reason why when everyone else was choosing Shelby Miller as the Cards top prospect that we stuck with Garcia. His stuff is #2 quality and the Cardinals will be giving him the 5th starters spot out of Spring Training. This should give him 20+ starts, 120 strikeouts and ERA that may dip below 4.00.

4) Alcides Escobar, SS, MIL – There has been little suspense as to who would be the Brewers everyday shortstop, since Escobar’s audition late last year. This has allowed him to relax and have a strong spring that came on the heels of an excellent Winter. We worry about his bat a lot less than we did a couple of years ago and there have never been any doubts about his glove. It also would not come as any surprise, to us, to see him be the eventual award winner. We look for something in the neighborhood of 500+ ABs, 20+ SBs and a .720ish OPS.

5) Buster Posey, C, SFG – Had the Giants not resigned Benji Molina, it is quite likely that Posey would be the favorite in the National League. As it stands, Posey will be looking for ABs. The positive is that San Francisco just may keep him in the Majors all season and play him some at first base. While we are not sure how much this helps/hurts his long-term development, it should be a plus for his 2010 impact. Expect 350 ABs, 10 HRs and an OPS approaching .800.

6) Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM – Martinez finally looks ready to live up to all that potential, as he has been hot ever since the Caribbean Championship Series, posting a 1.320 OPS in 38 ABs this Spring. Playing time is not yet a given for him, or else he might rank higher, but we are expecting 300+ ABs with double digit home runs and an OPS hovering around .780.

7) Drew Storen, RP, WSN – While Storen isn’t likely to see the Majors before mid-May, only Matt Capps on a one-year contract stands in the way of him and the National’s closer job. Expect the job to be his by season’s end, and solid bullpen numbers along the way.

8) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT – While we might be tempted to find a way to insert him into the lineup now and send Jeff Clement to the bench, the Pirates, rightfully so, want to give Alvarez a chance to tackle the everyday third base duties. This likely means that we won’t see Alvarez in Pittsburg until June when he forces Andy LaRoche across the diamond. When it is all said and done, you should expect 300 ABs, 15HRs and a .760ish OPS.

9) Alrodis Chapman, LHP, CIN – The Reds 5th starter job remains open, and the only thing really standing in Chapman’s way is his own health and possibly Mike Leake. We just have this feeling that the stars won’t line-up for him and he begins the season in the Minors, limiting him to 15-20 Big League starts. That still could net him 100 Ks and an ERA in the mid-4.00s.

10) Gabby Sanchez, 1B, FLA – This is an opportunity pick, as we fully expect Logan Morrison to have supplanted him in the everyday lineup by this time next year. But that is 2011 and in 2010 Sanchez looks positioned for 400 ABs, 15 HRs and a .770ish OPS.


Others who are absent from the list:

Mike Stanton, OF, FLA – Stanton’s big spring tempted the Marlins, but the 20yo could use another half-season in the Minors. We expect big things from him when he arrives, but the opportunity appears limited this season.

Ian Desmond, SS, WSN – Desmond looks to split time with Christian Guzman, and should see 350+ ABs, We don’t care much for the upside here, so we don’t expect all those ABs to produce more than a .700 OPS.

Mike Leake, RHP, CIN – This is an extremely high-floor pitcher who still could emerge from camp as the Reds #5 starter. Still with Chapman coming and Volquez likely returning late, there just aren’t likely many starts for him.

Madison Bumgarner, LHP, SFG – We ‘downgraded’ Bumgarner this winter when we rated him #21. If you weren’t worried about his second-half of 2009 velocity drop before, you should be now, as he doesn’t have the secondary offerings to be a major factor with a 90MPH fastball.

Logan Morrison, 1B, FLA – Still needs more time in the Minors, so he isn’t likely to see the Majors before mid-season.

Allen Craig/David Freese, STL – One of them will win a roster spot with the Cardinals out of camp, and should end up with 250-300 ABs, but there just isn’t that much to see here.

How many Rookie of the Year Winners over the last eight seasons were ranked in Baseball America’s Top 25? Out of sixteen, just two…Evan Longoria was #2 in 2008 and Justin Verlander was #8 in 2006.

This article is cross-posted from http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/.

You can find more Minor League information, from baseballnumbers, all year long at the Diamond Futures website.

Fordham Sports Law Symposium: This Friday @ 9:30 A.M.

This Friday, at 9:30 A.M., I (Marc Edelman) will be speaking at the 14th Annual Fordham Sports Law Symposium about the case American Needle v. Nat'l Football League.

The other speakers on my panel will be American Needle's general counsel Jeffrey Carey, Jones Day partner Meir Feder and Herrick Feinstein partner Irwin Kishner. The panel will be moderated by Tulane Law School professor Gabe Feldman.

Friday's sports law symposium is free and open to the public. New York lawyers who attend are eligible for six non-transitional, professional practice CLE credits.

For those interested in the full lineup of events (beginning with registration at 8:30 A.M.), see here.

For those interested in why I believe the Supreme Court should rule in favor of American Needle and remand this case back to the district court for a full antitrust review, please see here and here.

The Mulligan: The Arnold Palmer

This week the Tour is headed to the Arnold Palmer Invitational which is played on beautiful Bay Hill. It is back to playing at a Par 72 this year (not a Par 70 as it was last year) and, naturally, it packs some extra distance for those two strokes. I have some common names for you this week as well as an EXTRA SPECIAL sleeper pick based on nothing other than my gut feeling.

Here is what I said last week about Jim Furyk: "I didn't pick Jim Furyk for this event because I picked him last year and he let us down. This is his type of course, so I would not be surprised to see him play well this week. However, I am not making him one of my picks because he has let me down virtually every time I have picked him. So I am sort of giving you a cocktail made up of 2 parts support and 1 part skepticism with Furyk." He won last week, so I don't want to jinx anything by picking him, but I think he will play well again.

Can you tell me who is number one this season in both earnings and FedEx Cup points? Lucky for you, you don't have to. That is my job. It is the new big force on Tour, Steve Stricker. I am taking Stricker this week because he has picked up in 2010 right where he left off in 2009. I honestly don't think it matters what course he is playing right now. I am picking Stricker until he shows some sign of slowing down.

I also look for Nick Watney to have a good week at Bay Hill. He finished tied for 4th here last season and he is playing well right now. He is coming off a 4th place finish last week where is putter was on fire. Those are two reasons to pick Nick.

Since I didn't give you faithful Mulligan readers a sleeper pick last week, I am going to give you an extra special sleeper pick this week. Charles Schwartzel has two non-PGA victories this season and he finished 2nd at the WGC-CA Championship this year. I think Bay Hill shapes up nicely for the 25 year old and the confidence of early success in 2010 is the icing on the cake.

The Mulligan: The Transitions Championship

This week the Tour heads to Tampa for the Traditions Championship. The players will be on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook, a beautiful course and a wonderful place to play this time of year (so I hear). This is a tougher course that does not offer a lot of scoring opportunities, so ball striking is going to be at a premium. I am going to pick some precision players this week for this reason.

First, Steve Stricker is poised to have a good week in Tampa. He played well here last year (Tied for 4th) and he hits greens in regulation as well as anybody. Don't be surprised if this is the week that Stricker begins to look like the player we saw toward the second half of last season. Mainly, I am picking him because he is a good "Ball Stricker!"

I expect one of the players Stricker tied with at last years event to play well this week also. Matt Goggin is a long ball hitter that seems to like this course. If he is on this week, watch him bomb it down the fairway and then hit greens all day long. If he strikes the ball as well as he can, he should improve on last years tie for 4th finish.

Finally, Retief Goosen won here last season and there is no reason to think he won't perform again. He has 3 Top-10 finishes this season in only 5 starts. So he is playing well AND he has good history at Innisbrook. No brainer.

I didn't pick Jim Furyk for this event because I picked him last year and he let us down. This is his type of course, so I would not be surprised to see him play well this week. However, I am not making him one of my picks because he has let me down virtually every time I have picked him. So I am sort of giving you a cocktail made up of 2 parts support and 1 part skepticism with Furyk.

Is Nomar Garciaparra a Hall of Famer?

No.  End of post. 

Ok, not so fast.  The mid-to-late 1990s produced the best crop of young shortstops in years.  Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Nomar Garciaparra.  All three were heralded stars who competed with one another for the right to play shortstop for the American League in the All-Star game.  All three took drastically different paths to where they are now. Derek Jeter has played on five World Series winners and was the World Series MVP in 2000.  Alex Rodriguez became arguably one of the best players in baseball, winning a batting title at the age of 20 and three MVP awards since 2003.  Nomar Garciaparra, on the other hand, had a great career with the Red Sox as the face of the franchise.  He was the 1997 Rookie of the Year and won two batting titles - at age 25 and 26. 

In 2004, Garciaparra's career took a turn.  Mid-year, he was traded by the Red Sox to the Chicago Cubs.  The Sox went on to win the World Series and Nomar was never the same player as he was with the Red Sox.  After a year and a half with the Cubs (including an injury-plagued 2005 campaign), Garciaparra signed with the Dodgers.  He showed a flash of his former self in 2006, earning an All-Star selection and finishing with a .303 batting average, 20 home runs, and 93 RBI.  In 2007, Nomar had the last full season of his career, hitting in the .280s with less than 10 home runs.  He spent 2008 in Los Angeles before finishing his career in Oakland.

Nomar ends his career with a solid .313 batting average but lacks the other magic numbers that would ger him enshrined him in Cooperstown.  He had 229 home runs, six All-Star selections and no Gold Gloves.  His best years came in Boston, where he hit .323 in parts of eight seasons, hit at least 20 home runs six times, drove in at least 95 runs six times, and had 200 hits once.  After Boston, Nomar's batting average dipped to a very respectable .287, but he just wasn't the same player.  When the writers consider Nomar for the Hall, they'll see a guy who had a brilliant first half of a career but seemingly faded away.  This lack of prolonged greatness will keep Garciaparra off the writers' ballot.  Baseball-Reference.com says that Garciaparra's career is most similar to that of Joe Gordon, the Yankee second baseman from the 1950s,who was recently elected to the Hall of Fame via the Veterans Committee.  It will be by this method that Nomar will ever have a shot at election to the Hall of Fame.

Chapman Lives Up to the Hype (For Now)

Over the off-season, the Reds made a splash and signed Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman to a $30 million contract.  Chapman, a lefty that throws 100 mph is far from a sure thing, but he gave the Reds something to be excited about yesterday in his spring training debut.  Chapman pitched two innings allowing no runs, one hit, one walk and three strikeouts. He threw 26 pitches, 15 for strikes, and hit 102 on the radar gun.  The most striking part of his stat line is that only 58% of his pitches were thrown for strikes.  The knock on Chapman was that he was wild.  The Reds are hoping that while you can't teach someone to throw 100 mph, you can teach someone control.  His 58% strike percentage wasn't abysmal, especially for a debut, but I think the Reds would have liked to have seen more strikes.  Even without more strikes, one hit and three strikeouts in two innings isn't a bad way to make your case to make the Reds' rotation out of camp.


Around the League
Twins pitcher Joe Nathan tore a ligament in his elbow and likely faces Tommy John surgery.  That means it's time for all you fantasy players to ditch Nathan and look at any combination of Matt Guerrier/Jon Rauch/Jose Mijares as the Twins closer for this year.  They spent money this off-season, so they will win games.  Follow this situation closely and draft whoever Ron Gardenhire names as his closer ..... Phenom Stephen Strasburg made his spring training debut on Tuesday for the Nationals, working two scoreless innings ..... Curtis Granderson is hitless in nine at-bats as a Yankee ..... Former All-Star Hank Blalock signed a deal with the Rays and could make the team as a role player .....  The Rays will host a Carlos Pena action figure toothbrush holder night this season.  If that doesn't bring people to the ballpark, what will?

Fantasy Hockey Pickups: Week 21

Welcome to Week 21 of Fantasy Hockey Pickups. The Olympics have come and gone and the trading deadline has passed. This is the final week in the regular season for fantasy hockey in head-to-head leagues. This could be your last chance to get into the playoffs or move into a better seed. Here are a few players you may want to consider for that extra boost into the playoffs.

Forwards

David Booth - LW - (FLA): David Booth had 2G, 4A, 2PPP, 11SOG, 7PIM, and was a +2 last week. Overall he has 4G, 7A, 5PPP, and 67SOG. Booth had missed much of the season due to a concussion and also fell into a little slump when he returned, but looks to be getting back into the swing of things. Booth could be worth a look, especially in deeper leagues to provide some depth in your lineup. He is available in 45% of Yahoo Leagues.

Chris Stewart - RW - (COL): Chris Stewart had 5G, 4A, 2PPP, 2PIM, 15SOG, and was a +4 last week. Overall he has 51PTS, 57PIM, 11PPP, 172SOG, 4GWG, and is a +13. Stewart has surpassed 50 points in just his second year in the NHL. Stewart is a solid player and consistent producer and would be a good addition to any lineup for the playoffs. He is available in 48% of Yahoo Leagues.

Scott Gomez - C - (MON): Scott Gomez had 1G, 4A, 2PIM, 1PPP, 15SOG, and was a +3 last week. Overall he has 11G, 36A, 50PIM, 14PPP, and 146SOG. Gomez can provide some depth to your lineup and could be that extra boost you need in the playoffs. He is available in 54% of Yahoo Leagues.

Chris Kunitz - LW - (PIT): Chris Kunitz had 2G, 3A, 1PPP, 18SOG, and was a +3 last week. Overall he has 10G, 17A, 35PIM, 7PPP, 1SHG, and is a +6. Kunitz seems to finally be 100% healthy and looks to be getting out of his slump. If Kunitz can keep it up, he could have some value, especially playing on a line with Sidney Crosby. He is available in 57% of Yahoo Leagues.

Tomas Holmstrom - RW - (DET): Tomas Holmstrom had 2G, 2A, 8PIM, 3PPP, and 7SOG last week. Overall he has 17G, 11A, 42PIM, 13PPP, and is a +6. Holmstrom seems to have benefited well from the Olympic break to recover from a knee injury. Holmstrom is having a strong second half and is worth a look. he is available in 73% of Yahoo Leagues.

Alex Steen - C - (STL): Alex Steen had 3G, 3A, 2PIM, 13SOG, and was a +5 last week. Overall he has 18G, 16A, 26PIM, 11PPP, 2SHG, 2GWG, 138 SOG, and is a +4. Steen has really turned it up the second half of the season. He currently has 4G and 8PTS in his last 4 games and has been regularly finding himself on the score sheet. He is available in 92% of Yahoo Leagues.

Defensemen

John-Michael Liles - D - (COL): John-Michael Liles had 1G, 1A, 4PIM, 2PPP, 6SOG, and was a +1 last week. Overall he has 5G, 21A, 24PIM, and 18PPP. Liles is a great assist and PP producer. He is available in 57% of Yahoo Leagues.

Kurtis Foster - D - (TB): Kurtis Foster had 3A, 2PIM, 3PPP, and was a +1 last week. Overall he has 7G, 24A, 34PIM, 19PPP, and is a +1. Foster sees a lot of time on the PP and capitalizes on those opportunities by dishing out those assists. He is available in 68% of Yahoo Leagues.

Kris Letang - D - (PIT): Kris Letang had 3A, 4PIM, 9SOG, and was a +4 last week. Overall he has 3G, 22A, 37PIM, 5PPP, 133SOG, and is a +7. Letang takes plenty of SOG and you can count on him to get at least 30PTS this year. He is available in 74% of Yahoo Leagues.

Goalies

Manny Legace - G - (CAR): Manny Legace had 2W, 0.50GAA, .981SV%, and 1SHO last week. With Cam Ward hurt, Legace looks to be the man in Carolina. He is available in 92% of Yahoo Leagues.

Good Luck with your match-ups this week and hope to see you in the playoffs!

Minor League Beat: Ten Spring Training Stories We’ll Be Watching

Logan Morrison will be in one of the most interesting position battles this spring

With Spring Training games beginning today, it is a good time to take a look at the things that we will be watching most closely over the next few weeks. While there are many position battles looming between veterans, the more strategic decisions that will be made, involve the development paths of Minor Leaguers. With that in mind here are the ten stories (with a few extras thrown in for good measure) that will garner our closest attention over the next few weeks:



1) What are the Nationals’ going to do with 2009 draftees Strasburg and Storen?

This is number one for us, because Strasburg is the most intriguing player to come along in more than a decade. He has a solid frame, sits in the high-90s with his plus-plus fastball, and has two plus secondary offerings to compliment it--all with exceptional control. We have little doubt that he could step into the Nationals’ Big League rotation and would immediately be one of the fifty best starters in the game. That said, we would be shocked if that is what happens. Can he do enough in his limited spring appearances to make it impossible to keep him off the roster—as that is the real question? As to Storen, we were both surprised that the Nationals took him with the 10th pick and further surprised that he performed like he did after signing—especially in the AZFL. We saw him a number of time in college, and never expected a fastball that would consistently sit in the mid-90s. Add to that his slider is better than he receives credit for. One could make the argument that, given his mental makeup, Storen is closer to being Major league ready than is Strasburg. While we don’t expect him to close right away, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Storen make the club.


2) What happens in Cincinnati on the corners?

The Reds believe they have a legitimate shot at contending in the N.L. Central this season, which further complicates this situation and also led to the short-term shortstop fix of signing Orlando Cabrera. But Cabrera is clearly in decline and the Reds are loaded at the corner. We believe in playing for a championship in the season you can win it, and 2010 isn’t that year for the Reds. Which is why we would be positioning this team for a legitimate championship run in 2011. So, the Reds need to use every opportunity to assess how Juan Francisco, Todd Frazier, Yonder Alonso and Joey Votto fit into three positions (1B/ 3B/ LF). Chris Dickerson and Wladimir Balentine are solid ‘reserve’ outfields, but neither one of them will hold down a starting role—especially LF, on a Championship club. At age 34 and with a gimpy back, don’t expect Rolen to be contributing full-time on a pennant run in 2011 either. So one of the aforementioned four is trade bait to net you a legitimate shortstop. If Francisco can defensively handle either LF or 3B, we would send him back to AAA and let him get comfortable there. Although we find Frazier the most questionable from this quartet, his versatility may make him a keeper as well. But this Big League camp is vital for the Reds—not for 2010, but for 2011.


3) How many cars will Jason Heyward dent this Spring?

There is a reason that Heyward was named our #1 prospect, because he has as much offensive upside as any player to come through the Minor Leagues in more than five years—perhaps longer. His batting practice displays have already forced the Braves to put up OF netting in a facility that has been in use for over a decade. The comparisons he is drawing from veteran players and coaches are the makings of ‘lore’. Matt Diaz is not enough reason to keep him out of the starting RF role on opening day—but he still could. Don’t get us wrong, Heyward will have his struggles, but the Braves are going nowhere this year and now looks like as good as time as any to get Heyward’s Major League career rolling.


4) Can Gaby Sanchez hold off Logan Morrison for at least the first half?

Yes, Jorge Cantu is still in the mix as well, but since the Marlins are playing for some year in the future, to us, it would seem silly to put him in the way of either of the other two, as at least Sanchez appears to be ready. While we see Gaby Sanchez as a nice player, he doesn’t have the upside of Morrison, and is almost certain to end up as trade bait before this time next year. But there are rumblings that the Marlins are seriously giving Morrison a shot to win this job this spring. We don’t believe this would be in anyone’s best interests, but how Sanchez performs will really dictate how long Morrison has to wait.


5) Can Dustin Ackley really become a second baseman?

Somewhat under the radar, as few people believe this is really going to happen, but Dustin Ackley has the potential to be a premium offensive talent in CF, and an above average offensive talent in LF or at 1B. But if the Mariners can somehow transform him into a second baseman, his offensive upside is off the charts. Both us and the computer love Ackley’s potential as a future Batting Champion and OBP machine, but we’d drool at the thought of him putting up Ryne Sandberg-esque offensive numbers (potentially better) from the middle of the diamond. We still feel this is unlikely, but what a thought.

6) Is there a significant concern about Madison Bumgarner’s velocity?

Bumgarner had arguably the best raw ‘stuff’ of any prep pitcher in the 2007 draft. When he showed he had the ability to harness it in 2008, his prospect stock climbed through the roof. But Bumgarner spent the second-half of 2009 with a fastball that was barely above 90MPH. The Giants’ have dismissed the concern as arm fatigue and nothing to worry about, but Bumgarner doesn’t have the secondary offerings—or the command to be a special talent without a mid-90s heater. We hear that early outings haven’t seen the velocity return, and while the Giants have him tentatively penciled in as their #5 starter, this is a bigger story than whether or not he breaks camp in the rotation.


7) Will Aroldis Chapman be the Reds’ #5 starter in 2010?

There is little doubt about Champan’s upside, but there have been significant concerns about his Major League readiness. As we have mentioned previously, it is our belief that the Reds should be positioning things for a 2011 run, where Chapman and a potentially healthy Edison Volquez could provide them with the deepest rotation in the National League. So we would be using 2010 to get Chapman accustomed to the culture and the U.S. game—not trying to sell tickets. That said, the reports from the Reds organization about Chapman have been ‘glowing’ from the moment that he signed, and all indications are that they are going to seriously consider him to fill a major hole in their rotation this year.


8) How much more will the Giants try to mess around with Buster Posey?

We try to stay away from picking fights with Major League organizational decisions, but the Giants continue to try our patience. While we have a lot of respect for Brian Sabean et al., the decisions emanating from San Francisco over the last 18 months can only (optimistically) characterized as puzzling. We grant you that the 2010 NL West we be a competitive division, but it is only competitive due to its mediocrity, and it is unlikely that the eventual NL pennant winner comes from here. Buster Posey, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Pablo Sandoval and potentially Madison Bumgarner are the future of the franchise, and to screw with one of them because of some delusional dreams for 2010 is just insanity. Bringing back Molina when Posey would provide more help to an anemic offense just doesn’t make sense. Having Posey take away focus from his developing backstop duties by learning other infield positions makes even less sense. We will be curious to see if this plan is just idle chatter, or if Sabean has really flipped.


9) Who will emerge as the Ranger’s 4th and 5th starters?

The Rangers have a legitimate shot to win what could be baseball’s most competitive division this year, and proven talent in their rotation appears to be their biggest question mark. Rich Harden, when healthy, is a good start at the top—‘when healthy’ being the key. While we aren’t convinced that 2009 was anything less than a career year for Scott Feldman, he has earned the number two spot. Brandon McCarthy is what Brandon McCarthy is and it isn’t that bad and it isn’t that good, but that is where things get interesting. Tommy Hunter pitched well last year, but of the five possible options (Lewis, Holland, Feliz and Harrison) he has the least long-term upside. Derek Holland would seem to be a lock for the #4 spot if we were assured that he would be healthy enough to get into season condition—a situation that should be monitored closely. The Rangers didn't sign Lewis with the idea of him pitching from the pen, so he will be given every opportunity to win one of the spots. Which leaves us with Neftali Feliz and a slimmer, healthier, Matt Harrison. While there are many that will disagree with us, Feliz hasn’t shown the depth to his repertoire nor the ability to carry his velocity deep enough into games for us to change our belief that he should be viewed as a ‘lights out’ closer in the mold of a young K-Rod. We’d be giving Matt Harrison a long look for the last spot, and it bears watching to see if the Rangers do. In any case, the Rangers will likely need six starters as much as any team in baseball and what they decide to do with Feliz appears to be the key.


10) Who will get the Orioles #4 and #5 rotation spots?

The Orioles are another of those clubs that should be going into 2010 with an eye toward the future more so than the present. There is an interesting nucleus here, but they play in baseball’s toughest division and have no hope of competing with the Red Sox, Yankees or Rays, this season. Yet, their management has created some interesting, if unnecessary situations by acquiring a couple of aging veterans—namely Kevin Millwood, Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins. But for us, the real curiosity lies in the rotation makeup, as the Orioles have significant young arms competing for essentially two spots behind Millwood, Guthrie and Matusz. Chris Tillman should take one of those spots at some time during the 2010 season, but he is being slowed right now by some back soreness. Brad Bergesen pitched adequately last season, and is currently the favorite to win one of the spots, but he is experiencing shoulder soreness, and let’s face it, he doesn’t have the kind of stuff that should stand in the way of the other arms. Jake Arrieta is in the Orioles’ longer term plans, but he would have to really ‘wow’ people to have a legitimate shot to break camp with the team. To us, the answer that makes the most sense is 24yo David Hernandez, who was the Minor’s strikeout leader over the period of 2006-2008.


Other Situations That We Will Be Watching…

With Carlos Santana healthier than expected, how long before he takes over as the Indians’ everyday catcher?

Is Jaime Garcia the Cardinals #5 starter?

Who emerges between Scott Elbert, James McDonald and possibly Josh Lindbloom for the Dodgers #5 spot?

Are Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore really ready to assume Major League starting roles in Detroit?

How serious is Justin Duchscherer’s health issues and who follows Sheets, Anderson and Braeden in the Oakland rotation?

Do the A’s really believe that Chris Carter can play LF…and are they seriously willing to try it?

Hector Rondon is the Indians best option for the 5th starter role, but how long will it take the Indians to realize that he is a better option than either David Huff or Aaron Laffey?


This article is cross-posted at the Diamond Futures’ blog site. You can get additional articles, analysis and opinions about Minor League prospects on a daily basis here: http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/ .

The Exodus of the Oilers

A "For Sale" sign stands tall outside the Rexall Place in Edmonton, Alberta, where General Manager Steve Tambellini is prepared to overhaul the Edmonton Oilers player personnel. The 65-hour window of opportunity began last night at 12 midnight EST when the Olympic trade freeze was lifted.

Speculations and rumors are in full force that the leadership of the Oilers hockey club is about to change. The veterans are on the block and they know who they are. Last place in the National Hockey League with 19 wins in 61 games is certainly not what the Oilers management and coaching staff had in store, and the overall player attitude of this storied franchise has all but worn out it’s welcome.

The Edmonton Oilers under head coach Pat Quinn are relentless on the ice when it comes to hard work and are playing a full sixty minutes of hockey...sometimes. Other times, the end result is due in large part to the bench simply not putting in the type of work needed to outperform their opponent.

One thing that’s apparent however is the attitude that adjusts so quickly when the opposition scores first. It’s almost as if the players at some point expect to be down, and from that point on, the hard work continues to be there, but the right frame of mind to get the two points is not.

Their lack of production and success is paying dividends however for their entry draft layout several months down the road. Forwards Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin and Defenseman Cam Fowler are the big 3 in this years draft and have the ability to make quite the impact for an NHL franchise. If Edmonton is going to indeed select one of these three, General Manager Steve Tambellini must take necessary steps in preparing for their arrival. Starting primarily with clearing space for not only this years top pick, but for the youth that awaits it’s fate in the Edmonton organization.

If you look at the veteran’s currently on the roster with cap hits beyond this season, the likes of forwards Sean Horcoff, Ethan Moreau, Dustin Penner and defenseman Sheldon Souray, Steve Staios and Lubomir Visnovsky stand out as potential trade chips, as their respective contracts are not only expensive, but will linger on during what should be a re-building mode. Only Dustin Penner should be an exception due in large part to the amount of money a counterpart would have to absorb in any type of trade.

The Edmonton Oilers must move the expensive salaries and open up the books to their promising youth waiting in the wings. Prospect forwards Jordan Eberle, and Ryan O’Marra and defensemen Taylor Chorney, Alex Plante and Theo Peckham are in the big picture, and need to be factored in moving forward.

When Edmonton announces their first overall selection, the chances are greater then ever, that the elite player will put them ahead of the eight-ball during the rebuilding mode. What the return on most veterans will net, that's a whole other issue. If Steve Tambellini moves salary, his best bet is to seek picks and prospects to add to the organizational depth chart.

One thing that is evident right now, Steve Tambellini is working the phones and has a plan in place to begin the overhaul of the Edmonton Oilers. This hockey club is out of excuses, overpaid, and due for a demolition. Pat Quinn and his staff are the right fit in Edmonton to coach this team with a promising future. For right now though, moves need to be made, and the veterans of this current club need to start preparing their goodbyes.

The Oilers as a team have scored just six goals in their last six games. Taylor Hall is just what the doctor ordered. If they can have Hall, Eberle and MPS - along with whatever their return is for the firesale you know is coming - this team could potential be a fun team to watch rebuild, not unlike the Penguins, Blackhawks and Kings of the recent past.

If your an Edmonton Oilers fan, today through Wednesday can only mean good things to come for this franchise. You have to believe that at this point; because right now, things can't get any lower. It's all up hill from here, and it's up to Steve Tambellini and Assistant GM Kevin Prendergast to evaluate and make decisions that are going to enhance the look of this club, and get the Oilers back into contention.

Late this afternoon, that process got underway with veteran defensemen Denis Grebeshkov on the move to the Nashville Predators in exchange for a 2010 2nd round pick. This move will be one of many from now till Wednesday at 3pm for the Oilers.

While the for sale sign stands tall and players are packing and saying their goodbyes, the Edmonton Oilers will have a new look to them by Wednesday at 3pm and only time will tell exactly where this club will stand. Hey, it's going to be a better position then where they currently stand, that much we are sure of.