Monday, April 28, 2008

Weekly Windup's SportsJudge Fantasy League Analysis

Welcome back to another edition of the Weekly Windup. This biweekly wrap up is a report on the happening of the SportsJudge Expert League. This is the first look at how the season has played out so let’s take a look at the standings.

  1. Brian Doyle- 85 pts.
  2. Liz Rathbun- 80 pts.
  3. Larry Bodin- 76 pts.
  4. Jeremy Mittler- 71.5 pts.
  5. Parker Gold- 69 pts.
  6. Matt Cohen- 65.5 pts.
  7. Kevin Fenstermacher- 63.5 pts.
  8. Joe Romano- 63 pts.
  9. Brett Smiley- 62 pts.
  10. Marc Edelman- 58.5 pts.
  11. John O’Malley- 50.5 pts.
  12. Steve Shoup- 35.5 pts.

Keep in mind that we are only able to make 2 pick ups a month and we only change our lineups monthly. Brian has been led by some outstanding pitching with Lincecum, Haren, and Matsuzaka. He also made a smart decision by picking up Ervin Santana to replace Barry Zito in one of his moves for this month. Even with young Andrew Miller dragging his pitching stats down, he is still across the top of the board in all categories that starting pitchers affect. I have heard Brian tell countless stories about how good Miller’s beer pong shot is. I am just waiting to see if he can hit the strike zone with that kind of accuracy. I wouldn’t recommend him on your roster at this point, unless in a deep keeper/dynasty league. Teams are still figuring out what will work with their rosters since we are only able to make a few moves. Let’s look at some of the key moves over the first month of the season.

This is the part of the article where I’ll show you the recent moves in our league and give you my APPROVE / DISAPPROVE verdict. The first move is…

Owner: Kevin Fenstermacher

Add: Edinson Volquez

Drop: Erick Aybar

Verdict: Approve.

Volquez has tremendous potential and has shown how dominant he can be so far this season. I doubt Volquez lasted on your waiver wire for long. He has paid off for anyone who took the initiative to make an early move on him. He is 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA. His walks are a bit high, but I expect him to settle in with more experience at the big league level. He hasn’t let up more than one run in any start yet this season.

Owner: Brett Smiley

Add: Justin Germano

Drop: Jeremy Bonderman

Verdict: Disapprove

Brett did have a solid pick up of Xavier Nady, but I feel he made a big mistake with this move. Bonderman’s control has been horrendous (21 BB, 27.1 IP) so far this year and if you look at his numbers over the past two seasons they aren’t anything to brag about. I’m surprised by his performance so far because he is a very strong first half pitcher and has the tendency to fall apart after the all-star break. Hold on to Bonderman, but do look to deal him around the All-Star break. His numbers will improve, he has very good stuff. I don’t agree with this move because he was dropped for a back end of the rotation pitcher with no breakout potential. Germano barely earned a rotation spot and got hot for a few starts. The only thing Germano has in his favor is Petco Park. Hopefully you were able to stay away from him after his enticing, hot start. If you did pick up Germano I suggest you look elsewhere.

Owner: John O’ Malley

Add: Johnny Cueto

Drop: Josh Fields

Verdict: Approve

This was the big waiver wire move across most leagues so far this fantasy season, especially in Yahoo! leagues (which is what site we are using for this league). Cueto has lived up to the hype so far with 31 Ks in 33.1 IP and a WHIP of 0.87. He also only has just 5 walks this season. If you can, make a move for this kid (especially if you are in a dynasty or keeper league). John is reaping the benefits of one of the top pitching prospects in baseball all while dropping a player who didn’t make his major league roster. Fields is not worth the roster spot, even in deep leagues. The White Sox don’t have room for him on their roster and neither do you.

Owner: Liz Rathbun

Add: Jonathan Sanchez

Drop: Ted Lilly

Verdict: Disapprove

The name Lilly may not sound resilient, but Ted he has been a viable fantasy starter in the past. His problem is that he is very inconsistent and goes through starts where he looks like he has Cy Young caliber stuff and then starts where he looks completely overmatched and can’t find his command. I suggest you ride out the bumps and hope Lilly rebounds; he has in the past after poor stints. If you need a high strikeout pitcher Sanchez is definitely worth a look. I wouldn’t expect too much besides the high strikeout rate as he won’t see many wins with the Giants lineup behind him.

Owner: Steve Shoup

Add: Cliff Lee

Drop: Matt Garza

Verdict: Disapprove

I know what you are thinking. How can you disapprove of 4-0, 0.28 ERA, 0.41 WHIP, 29 Ks, 2 BBs? And yes, I picked up Lee in every league he was available that I am in. The reason I disapprove of this deal is because of dropping Garza. Garza has a great lineup behind him and can be a dominant pitcher. Don’t be surprised to see Garza’s numbers at the end of the season to be significantly better than Lee’s. Lee is a Must Sell. It’s nearly impossibly for his value to get any higher. If Steve is able to deal him at this high value, my opinion of this move might change. Lee is worth a pick up in your league. Just make sure that you aren’t giving up too much for a hot start.

The next report is in two weeks. Congratulations to Brian so far this year, but I expect a run from a certain team in seventh place. As with all SportsJudge articles, please feel free to leave some comments. Keep an eye out for future installments of the SportsJudge Fantasy League Reports.

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Brian Doyle said...

Andrew Miller's last start of the month tonight against the Dodgers will make or break whether he's on my team for the month of May. Having seen him pitch in person a number of times, I think he's got it in him to stay on the team, his stuff is filthy.