Fantasy Baseball Dispute No. 8169-T: SportsJudge.com Court Approves Trade of McCutchen, Niese & B. Anderson for Cuddyer and Hanson

SPORTSJUDGE.COM

COURT OF FANTASY BASEBALL

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -	x	Index No. 8169-T Date Rendered: July 30, 2010 Date Issued: July 30, 2010 League Type: Rotisserie, 5x5 Dispute: TRADE REVIEW Authoring Judge: Ed Gefen TRADE BETWEEN PiNsTrIpErS & THE SONS OF PITCHES IS ACCEPTED.
COMMISSIONER OF EP RULES BASEBALL KEEPER LEAGUE Petitioner, - against - PiNsTrIpErS and THE SONS OF PITCHES Respondent	: : : : : : : : : :
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The EP Leagues brings this claim in the COURT OF FANTASY BASEBALL to determine the status of a fantasy baseball dispute involving the proposed trade of PiNsTrIpErS players Andrew McCutchen (OF Pittsburgh Pirates), Jonathon Niese (P, New York Mets) and Brett Anderson (P, Oakland Athletics) for The Sons of Pitches players Michael Cuddyer (OF-1B, Minnesota Twins) and Tommy Hanson (P, Atlanta Braves).

This court ACCEPTS the proposed trade.

The Law on Upholding a Trade

In this court, it is the general rule that any fantasy baseball trade shall be upheld as long as the trade adequately benefits both teams. (See Public Opinion No. 101, Big Red Rockers v. Big City Bombers). A fantasy trade reasonably benefits both teams if it allows both teams to have a reasonable chance of moving up in the standings. (See Unpublished Opinion No. 468-T, Commissioner Gary B. v. Ever-Lastings and 2 Legit 2 Quit). If the league is a keeper league, as is the case here, this Court will also consider a team’s likely performance in future seasons, especially with respect to the team currently ranked lower in the standings (See Unpublished Opinion No. 3704-T, Commissioner Paul Schultz v. Snakes & Blutos).

This Court recognizes that team owners may have different strategies in terms of short-term and long-term goals; and that while one team may try to maximize its chances of winning prize money this year, another team may play for the future (See Unpublished Opinion No. 3731-T, Commissioner v. Muleskinners & Southsiders; see also Unpublished Opinion No. 3797, Commissioner v. Foo Dogs & Maulers).

The Proposed Trade

PiNsTrIpErS proposes to trade:

· Andrew McCutchen (OF Pittsburgh Pirates, .293, 57 R, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 21 SB)

· Jonathon Niese (P, New York Mets, 7 W, 84 K, 3.43 ERA, 1.37 WHIP)

· Brett Anderson (P, Oakland Athletics, 2 W, 22 K, 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, activated from DL for July 30 game)

The Sons of Pitches Propose to trade:

· Michael Cuddyer (OF-1B, Minnesota Twins, .278, 62 R, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 2 SB)

· Tommy Hanson (P, Atlanta Braves, 8 W, 122 K, 3.99 ERA, 1.35 WHIP).

The Analysis

Four of the five players in this fantasy trade dispute are age 23 or younger, so the key to this trade is primarily about potential, and there is a lot of uncertainty on both sides.

The PiNsTrIpErS are currently in second place, and have acquired the trade’s lone veteran, Michael Cuddyer. With Cuddyer, who is batting in the middle of the order for Minnesota, the PiNsTrIpErS could be expected to improve in HR (a bit) and RBI (more than a bit). In addition, with Hanson, the PiNsTrIpErs look to enjoy an upgrade in wins and strikeouts.

The Sons of Pitches, sitting in eighth place and without the benefit of three clear keepers for next season, get at least one potential keeper for their roster in McCutchen. McCutchen has dealt with shoulder issues this month, but can boost almost any team’s stolen bases and batting average. The Sons of Pitches do lose HR potential, but they are already at the bottom of the league in those categories – with 124 HR, trailing the next-lowest team by 19 (15.3 percent).

In pitching, the ceiling is high on Niese – 6-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.10 WHIP since coming back from the DL on June 5 – and Anderson, a projected ace who plays in a pitching-friendly stadium for a team that is on the upswing. One, if not both, a these pitchers could prove important to the PiNsTrIpErS run at “a money finish” down the stretch.

Holding

The Court approves the trade of PiNsTrIpErS players Andrew McCutchen (OF Pittsburgh Pirates), Jonathon Niese (P, New York Mets) and Brett Anderson (P, Oakland Athletics) to The Sons of Pitches players Michael Cuddyer (OF-1B, Minnesota Twins) and Tommy Hanson (P, Atlanta Braves).

The Ryan Howard Contract

Yesterday, the Phillies announced that they reached a five year extension with Ryan Howard, worth $125 million.  Howard will be 31 by the time his current contract (which runs through 2011) expires and several analysts have been critical of this new contract.

I would argue that Howard falls behind Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins and is the third most valuable position player on his team, so is he worth the money?  If the Phils pay for past performance and reward Howard for his past contributions, I guess so, but this deal handcuffs the Phillies financially.  Sure, they are a bigger market team and probably have more resources than, say, the Pirates, but the Phillies will have to make some tough financial decisions in the near future that will be impacted by the Howard deal.  First, productive right fielder Jayson Werth is a free agent at the end of the year and will probably walk now that Howard signed a big deal.  Rollins and Brad Lidge are only under contract through 2011 (Rollins through 2010 with a club option that is sure to get picked up for 2011, Lidge with an option for 2012 that probably won't be).  Other players like Shane Victorino and Cole Hamels are only signed for the next few years.  Philadelphia won't be able to sign them all to long contracts.  Cliff Lee would have loved to be Philadelphia's number two starter, behind Roy Halladay, but the Phillies traded him to Seattle the same day they acquired Halladay.  Why couldn't the Phils use some of the money they spent on Howard to re-sign Lee, a free agent at the end of the year? 

With contract uncertainty for a good portion of the rest of their roster, you can't help but wonder if the Phillies just spent $125 million efficiently. 

Is Nomar Garciaparra a Hall of Famer?

No.  End of post. 

Ok, not so fast.  The mid-to-late 1990s produced the best crop of young shortstops in years.  Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Nomar Garciaparra.  All three were heralded stars who competed with one another for the right to play shortstop for the American League in the All-Star game.  All three took drastically different paths to where they are now. Derek Jeter has played on five World Series winners and was the World Series MVP in 2000.  Alex Rodriguez became arguably one of the best players in baseball, winning a batting title at the age of 20 and three MVP awards since 2003.  Nomar Garciaparra, on the other hand, had a great career with the Red Sox as the face of the franchise.  He was the 1997 Rookie of the Year and won two batting titles - at age 25 and 26. 

In 2004, Garciaparra's career took a turn.  Mid-year, he was traded by the Red Sox to the Chicago Cubs.  The Sox went on to win the World Series and Nomar was never the same player as he was with the Red Sox.  After a year and a half with the Cubs (including an injury-plagued 2005 campaign), Garciaparra signed with the Dodgers.  He showed a flash of his former self in 2006, earning an All-Star selection and finishing with a .303 batting average, 20 home runs, and 93 RBI.  In 2007, Nomar had the last full season of his career, hitting in the .280s with less than 10 home runs.  He spent 2008 in Los Angeles before finishing his career in Oakland.

Nomar ends his career with a solid .313 batting average but lacks the other magic numbers that would ger him enshrined him in Cooperstown.  He had 229 home runs, six All-Star selections and no Gold Gloves.  His best years came in Boston, where he hit .323 in parts of eight seasons, hit at least 20 home runs six times, drove in at least 95 runs six times, and had 200 hits once.  After Boston, Nomar's batting average dipped to a very respectable .287, but he just wasn't the same player.  When the writers consider Nomar for the Hall, they'll see a guy who had a brilliant first half of a career but seemingly faded away.  This lack of prolonged greatness will keep Garciaparra off the writers' ballot.  Baseball-Reference.com says that Garciaparra's career is most similar to that of Joe Gordon, the Yankee second baseman from the 1950s,who was recently elected to the Hall of Fame via the Veterans Committee.  It will be by this method that Nomar will ever have a shot at election to the Hall of Fame.

Chapman Lives Up to the Hype (For Now)

Over the off-season, the Reds made a splash and signed Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman to a $30 million contract.  Chapman, a lefty that throws 100 mph is far from a sure thing, but he gave the Reds something to be excited about yesterday in his spring training debut.  Chapman pitched two innings allowing no runs, one hit, one walk and three strikeouts. He threw 26 pitches, 15 for strikes, and hit 102 on the radar gun.  The most striking part of his stat line is that only 58% of his pitches were thrown for strikes.  The knock on Chapman was that he was wild.  The Reds are hoping that while you can't teach someone to throw 100 mph, you can teach someone control.  His 58% strike percentage wasn't abysmal, especially for a debut, but I think the Reds would have liked to have seen more strikes.  Even without more strikes, one hit and three strikeouts in two innings isn't a bad way to make your case to make the Reds' rotation out of camp.


Around the League
Twins pitcher Joe Nathan tore a ligament in his elbow and likely faces Tommy John surgery.  That means it's time for all you fantasy players to ditch Nathan and look at any combination of Matt Guerrier/Jon Rauch/Jose Mijares as the Twins closer for this year.  They spent money this off-season, so they will win games.  Follow this situation closely and draft whoever Ron Gardenhire names as his closer ..... Phenom Stephen Strasburg made his spring training debut on Tuesday for the Nationals, working two scoreless innings ..... Curtis Granderson is hitless in nine at-bats as a Yankee ..... Former All-Star Hank Blalock signed a deal with the Rays and could make the team as a role player .....  The Rays will host a Carlos Pena action figure toothbrush holder night this season.  If that doesn't bring people to the ballpark, what will?

Top Spring Training Storylines

It seems like an eternity since the end of the World Series but luckily for baseball fans, spring has arrived.  Pitchers and catchers reported to camp this week, marking the official start of the 2010 baseball season.  Here are some stories to watch this spring:

Where will Johnny Damon sign? Yes, I write about this way too often but it's a big deal.  Damon will likely wind up calling the AL Central home, as his top two suitors are the White Sox and the Tigers.  Detroit is rumored to have offered Damon a two year contract, while the White Sox have offered one year.  My guess is that Damon signs with the Tigers.

Where will Jason Heyward begin the season? Heyward (pictured) is a Braves outfielder and pretty much the consensus top prospect in the game.  Since the Braves took their time with Tommy Hanson last year, I think the Braves would prefer for him to begin the season at AAA, but if he has a great spring, I think there's a chance he makes it to Atlanta to start the season.

What will the Reds get out of Aroldis Chapman?  One thing is for sure and that is Chapman throws hard.  The main knock on him is that his control is sub-par.  The Reds have pretty good starting pitching depth but if Chapman impresses, he could make the rotation as Cincinnati begins the season.  If not, look for him to stick around at extended spring training to hone his control.

Who will be the Yankees Fifth Starter?  For the last few seasons the "Joba Rules" have made non-Yankee fans want to throw up.  It even got so bad that it made Yankee fans sick, too.  Yankee General Manager Brian Cashman proclaimed this off-season that Chamberlain completed his development program and wouldn't face an innings cap.  Chamberlain faces off against Phil Hughes, who will likely face an innings cap this season should he win the job.  The Yankees were relieved to see Chamberlain gain velocity when he moved to a reliever for the postseason.  Look for him to abandon starting and shift to the bullpen full-time.

Will the media leave Mark McGwire alone? Yes, he admitted to steroid use.  So have dozens of other players.  Get over it and let him do his job.

How many people will hate the new spring training/batting practice hat? In keeping with MLB's tradition of trying to make more money, the player's will be wearing an updated spring training/bating practice hat this season.  They change the design every few years and I think this year's hat is particularly atrocious.  There's no need for huge stripes coming down each side of the brim.  Thankfully I don't get to talk about fashion too often in this space but there are just some classic team hats that haven't changes for 100 years that don't need any flare. 

The Joe Mauer Contract Extension Talks Heat Up

On Monday, it was rumored that Twins catcher Joe Mauer had signed a 10 year contract extension to stay in Minnesota.  While that rumor has since been refuted, the Twins and the reigning AL MVP are making progress on a contract extension.  Somewhere, thousands of Yankee and Red Sox fans are a bit disappointed. 

If Mauer does sign a contract extension to spend the prime of his career in Minnesota, Yankee and Red Sox fans should be disappointed that they miss out on one of baseball's best player, but fans of the game of baseball should be thankful.  As a Yankee fan, it's fun for me to watch my team go get just about anyone they want by throwing money at players.  It's fun to think about who the Yankees will sign in the off-season and how good he will make the team.  As a baseball fan, though, I realize how horrible it is for the game for the Yankees to do that. 

I hope Joe Mauer stays in Minnesota for a very long time.  He's a great player and teams not named the Yankees deserve great players.  In fact, the Yankees probably shouldn't be able to have that many great players.  They can sign whoever they want because they play in a big market and have money.  To level the playing field, baseball needs a salary cap and a salary floor.  Teams like the Yankees should not be able to spend $500 million during one off-season on CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett.  On the other hand, teams like the Marlins should have to spend money on someone. 

What about Johnny?

There's a free agent leftfielder who hit .282 with 24 home runs and 82 RBI last year.  Some teams have kicked the tires on him, but ultimately no one has been very aggressive in trying to sign him.  Why not?

His team last year considered re-signing him, but not for the length or the money the player's agent wanted.  Over the last three years he hit .285 with an on-base percentage of .364 in addition to 53 home runs and 216 RBI.  Not bad.  The downside? He'll be 36 this year.

I think it's pretty obvious I'm talking about Johnny Damon (especially because of the picture!), a key part of the Yankees' 27th World Series crown.  Scott Boras has wanted a multi-year deal for Damon worth about $12 million a year.  The problem is that no one seems interested in paying that.  In addition to the Yankees, the Braves and Giants had expressed interest in Damon.  With the Giants signings of Mark DeRosa and Bengie Molina, it's likely they're out of the running.  The Yankees have claimed they only have $2 million left to spend, but many experts contend that's still Damon's most likely destination. 

What we're seeing with Damon is part of a larger movement as teams seem to be moving away from older players towards younger, more athletic (and cheaper) players.  We saw it last year with Bobby Abreu signing for one year and $5 million with the Angels.  This year, Hideki Matsui and Vladimir Guerrero signed similarly valued contracts.  Despite the productivity of such older players, teams have started to realize that a decline is inevitable and they aren't offering long-term, expensive deals anymore.  I fully expect Damon to be on someone's roster by spring training and probably for a similar deal.

Sale of Texas Rangers Puts Stars in Kovalchuk Sweepstakes

Over the weekend, an investment group including Texas Rangers great Nolan Ryan came to an agreement to purchase the Rangers baseball club from Texas businessman Tom Hicks. The sale was nearly ten months in the making after the Hicks Sports Group defaulted on a $525 million loan in late March 2009.

Hicks made billions in the 90's and early 2000's through leveraged buyouts, but was hit hard when the economy turned south last year, forcing him to prioritize his holdings which included the Rangers, Dallas Stars, Mesquite Championship Rodeo, and fifty percent of Liverpool FC, the English football club.

Mike Heika at the Dallas Morning News had an insightful theory on why Hicks chose to unload the Texas Rangers, as opposed to other assets like the Dallas Stars:

Tom Hicks got frustrated trying to chase the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels, because the Rangers would have had to increase their payroll by $50 million or more and still had little guarantee of being better than the other teams.

In hockey, the difference between the lowest spending teams and the highest is only about $12 million.

The salary spread in the NHL is a bit higher than Heika indicates, but his argument is rational. Dallas is the second-fastest growing TV market and despite the popularity of the NFL's Cowboys, success by the Rangers, Mavericks, and Stars captures the city's attention. The additional $50 million necessary to compete with the elite in Major League Baseball is more than the entire Dallas Stars payroll this season. It makes complete sense that Hicks would turn his attention to bringing a Stanley Cup back to Big D as quickly as possible. Heika speculated:

The sale is reported to be for "considerably more than $500 million,'' and it may not be completed until April, so my guess is any kind of help for the Stars would come after that...

.....Do you think the Stars could have ever swung the Brad Richards deal without the ability to take on Richards' $7.8 million contract? The Lightning was trying to dump salary, and the Stars were in position to take advantage of that.

As it stands now, they could not make that same deal at the trade deadline.

I have to disagree here. Not only are the Stars in position to make that same deal, they are now in serious contention for one of the NHL's elite young talents.

As the NHL approaches the February 12th Olympic roster freeze, media attention has circled around the future of Russian superstar Ilya Kovalchuk. He is slated to become an Unrestricted Free Agent on July 1 and the Atlanta Thrashers have yet to come to an agreement on an extension for their franchise player.

Since the summer, rumors have circulated that Kovalchuk would be seeking something in excess of $8 million. Under the current CBA, "No player may be eligible to contract for or receive in excess of 20% of the Club's upper limit in total annual compensation." This would put Kovalchuk's max range at just over $11 million. While this type of money would make it very difficult for most NHL teams to afford supplemental impact players, it's even more of a challenge for a Trashers organization that is struggling to fill their arena.

Atlanta is also no stranger to a situation like this. Two seasons ago, star forward Marian Hossa was approaching free agency and GM Don Waddell knew he couldn't afford to resign him. Hossa was dealt along with Pascal Dupuis in a last-minute deal to the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for Colby Armstrong, Eric Christensen, Angelo Esposito, and a 1st round pick. The trade amounted to merely a playoff rental for the Penguins when Hossa bolted to Detroit after the season. Given the similar dynamics, fans and journalists have naturally linked Kovalchuk with Cup contenders like Washington, Chicago, Calgary, Boston, and the New York Rangers.

Yet most of these teams don't fit the mold of a trading partner for the Atlanta Thrashers. Hossa is a great player, but Kovalchuk is the kind of player you can build a franchise around. He's a guy that will put fans in the seats and define a team. These are the reasons Waddell will do everything in his power to keep the superstar in Atlanta. On the open market, the suitors for his services will be many and the price will be high; too high for a rental. Would a team like Chicago really be willing to mortgage a bright future for one shot at a Cup this season? Not a chance. Two characteristics will likely define a team that is truly a long-term solution for Kovalchuk:

1. Team has cap room and financial ability to sign him to an extension: The contenders listed above are up against the cap ceiling and would need to ship high-priced contracts back to Atlanta in order to clear room to resign Kovalchuk. If Waddell isn't willing to pay Kovalchuk $10 million, does he want to pay three role players $10 million? This also eliminates teams like Tampa Bay who are struggling to pay the bills.

2. Trading NHL-ready talent and/or draft picks to Atlanta won't gut the team's roster: Brian Burke would love to bring in Kovalchuk to put his squad in Toronto back on the map, but after trading two first-rounders and a second-round pick for Phil Kessel, he doesn't have enough to make a deal happen.


Prior to this weekend, this made the Los Angeles Kings the sweepstakes favorite in my mind. LA is an organization stocked with expendable young talent, plenty of cap room, and on the verge of becoming a serious contender in the Western Conference. It's in a city with tons of marketing and endorsement potential for Kovalchuk should the Kings make a run at the Cup. This reason alone may be important enough to force Kovalchuk to accept a few million less than he's demanding from Atlanta. He'd also be teamed with center Anze Kopitar who is in the midst of a breakout season alongside veteran Ryan Smyth.

With the sale of the Texas Rangers, it's also time to add Tom Hicks' Dallas Stars into the mix as a serious possibility. Although the Rangers deal may not officially close until the summer, expect the purse strings to loosen immediately for Dallas GM Joe Nieuwendyk. Just because Hicks' defaulted on the March loan, it's tough to speculate that he doesn't have cash sitting around ready to deploy. The Wall St. Journal reported he refused to dip into his own funds to cover the missed payments.

The Stars will likely have a top 15 pick in next year's draft and free agent veterans Mike Modano, Jere Lehtinen, and Marty Turco probably won't be back. Dallas also has young difference makers in the likes of James Neal, Fabian Brunnstrom, and Jamie Benn that Atlanta would love to add to their roster in exchange for Kovalchuk. Come to think of it, a Turco for Kari Lehtonen goalie swap might make a lot of sense for both teams as well.

In the end, I still think Kovalchuk resigns in Atlanta. If not, maybe a championship-starved GM loses patience and guts the future of his franchise for a short-term rental. It wouldn't be the first time. But when it's all said and done, don't be shocked if Hicks and Nieuwendyk pull the trigger on Kovalchuk and push the Stars back into the NHL elite.

The Lincecum Arbitration Case

By age 25, only one pitcher not named Tim Lincecum had collected more hardware.  By age 25, Roger Clemens had earned two Cy Youngs and a league MVP award.  Lincecum earned his second Cy Young award in 2009 and will likely take his hardware with him to an arbitration hearing this winter in an effort to try to earn a raise from his $650,000 a year salary.  For those unfamiliar with baseball's basic compensation structure, a player is under team control for six years.  The first three are years in which the player is not eligible for arbitration, the so-called "pre-arb" years.  In the pre-arb years, the team can basically renew the player for a minimal salary.  After those three years, the player becomes eligible for arbitration.  A team submits what it thinks the player is worth, the player's agent does the same and the arbitrator picks one of the two numbers.  There's a good chance the player and team avoid arbitration by signing a deal before the hearing is set to begin. 

In the arbitration system, both sides seek to compare the player to what it thinks are comparable players.  With Lincecum, who is his modern day contemporary?  There is no one as good and as young as he is.  For that reason, I expect Lincecum's side to ask for a ridiculous amount of money.  It's hard to argue that he doesn't deserve it.  In his career, he's 40-17 with an ERA under 3.00 and 676 strikeouts in 598.2 innings.  That's a 25 year old.  Since Felix Hernandez just signed a new contract, there's a good chance that comes into play when arguing over Lincecum's next deal.  Hernandez, however, doesn't have any Cy Youngs. 

When Clemens was 25, he made $1.35 million.  I fully expect Lincecum to make around $10 million, but I also think the case won't reach arbitration and it will be settled before numbers are exchanged. 

Marlins Told to Spend Money

The happy news out of South Florida is that ace pitcher Josh Johnson signed a four year contract extension.  The not-so-happy news out of South Florida is that the Marlins were pushed by Major League Baseball and the Player's Union to extend Johnson.

The Marlins' frugality is often the subject of concern in baseball.  MLB implemented a revenue-sharing program designed to tax the top spenders and redistribute the tax money amongst the smaller market teams.  The fish, however, routinely keep their payroll as low as possible. BizofBaseball.com has this fantastic chart that demonstrates the spending habits of the Marlins.

Florida Marlins Rev-Sharing - Payroll
Year	Rev-Sharing	EOY Payroll	Diff
2002	$20,946,573	$40,822,536	$19,875,963
2003	$21,030,000	$63,281,152	$42,251,152
2005	$31,000,000	$56,273,212	$25,273,212

The "Rev-Sharing" column shows the money the Marlins got from MLB as part of the revenue-sharing agreement.  The "EOY Payroll" is their end of season payroll and the "Diff" is what the Marlins are paying their players, after revenue-sharing kicks in its contribution.

Part of the revenue-sharing agreement was that the recipients of revenue-sharing dollars would have to spend that money on players (thus, helping small market teams compete against the wealthier teams).  Earlier this week, MLB, the union, and the Marlins released a joint statement which said "In recent years, the Union has had concerns that certain Clubs have not lived up to this requirement, and has consulted regularly with the Commissioner’s Office about those concerns. The Florida Marlins are one of a number of Clubs that have been discussed."   For their part, the Marlins pledged to increase their payroll as they prepare to move into a new ballpark.

This marks the first time MLB/the union has ever tried to enforce this tenet of the revenue-sharing agreement.  What the Marlins actually do with the money will be something interesting to watch for.  They could overspend on mediocre players and say to MLB "well, we spent the money, aren't you happy now?"  Alternatively, they could spend the money on their young talent, like Johnson, a move that's good for the Marlins and good for baseball.  Although this first statement was about the Marlins, pay close attention to the Pirates, Royals, and Rays, teams that are also known for being a bit stingy.

Baseball Roundup: Hall of Fame, Chapman, McGwire

Hall of Fame Passes on Alomar
The Baseball Writers Association of America (BWAA) continues to demonstrate that they are incapable of selecting the right players to get elected to the Hall of Fame.  For some reason, there is some sort of distinction to them between a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer and someone elected on a different ballot.  Roberto Alomar is one of the best second basemen of all-time but yet, he fell short by a handful of votes.  I expect him to make it in next year with no issue, but he should have gotten in this year.  Why does one year make a difference to the voters?  There is nothing on a player's plaque that indicates how many ballots he was on before getting elected.  He won't accumulate any more hits between now and next year.  I just don't get it.  Speaking of one year making a difference, Bert Blyleven fell five votes short of election.  When he was first on the ballot, he only earned 17% of the vote.  Now, 12 years later, he's up to 74%.  That makes no sense to me.  How do writers decide to vote for a guy one year after saying "no thanks" for several years before?  It's such a frustrating process.


Chapman to the Reds
Over the weekend, the Reds reached an agreement with Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman.  There is no doubt that he throws hard, but his control is suspect, according to scouts that have watched him throw.  I will applaud the Reds for actually going out and spending money on a free agent, but I don't think Chapman deserves the six years, $30 million he got.  I see him as more of a long term project and I wouldn't be surprised to see him start out the season in AA or AAA, maybe not even getting called up until September or 2011.  ESPN analyst Tim Kurkjian called Chapman "raw" and if that description is accurate, Cincinnati better be ready to allow Chapman to develop.

McGwire Comes Clean
You want to know why all the "experts" say America is willing to forgive athletes who took steroids?  Because we're so tired of hearing about it.  I honestly don't care what Mark McGwire took and I formed my own opinion of him a long time ago.  I think most people feel the same way.  I'm tired of the analysis of every word of every apology speech, trying to find loopholes in rhetoric or better yet, lies.  I've said it before in this space - during a stretch of the game's history, a lot of players were not clean.  We should judge those players against their peers, not against other great players, and remember that their numbers could possibly be inflated.  I'm glad McGwire finally came clean and I hope he's able to move on with the rest of his life and his new job as the Cardinals' hitting coach.   

Predicting the MLB Hall of Fame Voting Results

Once MLB announces its yearly awards and some of the bigger name free agents start to find new homes, the baseball winter seems to drag on.  The one thing that does sneak up on baseball fans each winter is the Hall of Fame voting.  This year's results are announced tomorrow, so let's take a look at some of the candidates:

Andre Dawson - The Hawk was just shy of the 75% of votes needed for election, with 67% last year.  Since Jim Rice was elected last year and Dawson is better statistically than Rice, I think Dawson makes it this year.

Robert Alomar - Arguably the best second baseman in baseball during his generation, Alomar is also known for spitting in the face of an umpire.  A 12-time all-star and .300 career hitter, Alomar makes it on the first try.

Bert Blyleven - Blyleven will lose eligibility for election by the writers if not elected by 2012 and he's been gradually getting more and more votes.  A career 287 game-winner, he ranks in the top ten all-time in shutouts and strikeouts.  I think he deserves enshrinement, but I have a feeling he falls just shy this year.

Barry Larkin - Alan Trammell is also on the ballot, but Larkin's numbers are a bit better than Trammell's.  Larkin was an excellent shortstop for the Reds, earning an all-star selection for 12 of his 19 big league seasons.  I'd give him around 50% of the vote.
 
Lee Smith - Before Trevor Hoffman became the all-time saves leader, it was Lee Smith.  I remember they used to time his walk from the bullpen to the mound and boy was it slow.  He was at 44.5% last year and I think he falls short this year.  As more and more relievers get elected (see: Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage), Smith's chances get better.

Tim Raines - Raines was overshadowed by Rickey Henderson last year and while Henderson's number were better than Raines, Raines is most certainly a Hall-of-Famer.  On that note, it's hard to go from 23% of the vote to 75%, but I expect Raines' votes to surge toward that mark this year, with election next year.

Edgar Martinez - The first "true" Designated Hitter to be on the ballot with a chance at election, Martinez was a great hitter, but I think he'll face a bit of an uphill climb to election.  Relievers faced a similar struggle when the use of relief pitchers evolved to where it is today and I think Designated Hitters will struggle for a few years.  Is Martinez a Hall of Famer?  .312 career average, 300+ home runs, 1261 RBI, and seven all-star selections.  Maybe.... but not this year.

Others - My guess is that Mark McGwire will still hover around 25% of the vote, although I'd vote for him.  Jack Morris was at 44% last year and he may see an increase in votes, but won't come close to election.  The first-time eligible players are always interesting.  Mo Vaughn, of all people, got votes last year.  I wouldn't be shocked to see Kevin Appier, Eric Karros, Fred McGriff, Robin Ventura, and Andres Galarraga get a handful of votes each, deservedly so or not. 

MLB Free Agency Winners and Losers

Have you ever gotten to an airport only to find that your flight was delayed?  All there is to do is sit around and wait.  That's how I feel about Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, Johnny Damon, and the rest of MLB's unsigned free agents.  While Holliday and Bay are the class of MLB's free agent hitters this year, both appear to be content to remain teamless as we ring in the new year.  While they continue to sulk and wonder why they aren't getting offers for more money, I'm going to consider some early winners and losers of free agency.


Winner: Boston Red Sox.  The signing of John Lackey (pictured) gives Boston four guys that can be a number one starter on many teams.  Pitching wins championships and Boston is in position to have starting rotation depth be a strength next season.  The Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro signings were a nice bonus, too.


Loser: Johnny Damon.  Damon wanted to come back to the Yankees but his price tag never came down.  Note to Damon and other veterans: the era of big, bloated contracts is over.  Maybe Bay and Holliday should read that line again.

Winner: New York Yankees.  It's hard to imagine that the Yankees' biggest splash in free agency is Nick Johnson, but if he stays healthy, he's a great #2 hitter that will get on base for guys like A-Rod and Mark Teixeira.  Yes, I am really resisting talking about the two big trades they made.

Winner: Washington Nationals.  They overpaid for Pudge, but when you're a team that contends for the #1 draft pick each year, that needs to happen in order to turn things around.  Pudge provides a veteran presence for the Nats your pitchers (read: Stephen Strasburg).  The signings of Matt Capps and Jason Marquis were even bigger for Washington.  When a team gets so accustomed to losing, I think it's important to bring in some new blood to try to change the attitude.  This is precisely what Washington has done and while these guys probably won't carry the Nats to the playoffs, it's a great first step.

Loser: Houston Astros.  Three years and $15 million to Brandon Lyon?  Brandon Lyon?!  I believe that a team should never spend money like that on a middle reliever.  Even if he ends up replacing Jose Valverde as closer, he's still BRANDON LYON.

Winner: Brandon Lyon.  See above.

Priced Out! Why Agents are Costing Players

After the World Series was over, free agent to be Johnny Damon said that he wanted to finish his career with the Yankees.  He called them the best organization he's ever played for.  So why is that unlikely to happen?  Damon's agent is Scott Boras and Boras wanted big bucks and a multi-year deal for his free agent outfielder.  The Yankees were unwilling to acquiesce to Boras' demands (for once!) and offered Damon two years $13 million.  Boras had wanted a three or four year deal for Damon, despite the fact that Damon is going to be 36 next year.  Once it became apparent the Yankees were going to sign Nick Johnson, Damon came back to the Yankees with a counteroffer of two years $20 million.  The Yankees didn't budge.

Across the AL East, Jason Bay wants five years and close to $60 million.  Throughout the season and the beginning of the off-season, the Red Sox and Bay flirted with a contract extension to keep the left fielder in Boston.  It never happened.  The Red Sox were reluctant to commit that amount of money to Bay and found themselves a cheaper outfield option in veteran Mike Cameron.  The addition of Cameron will likely shift Jacoby Ellsbury to left field and Bay to a new home. 

The days of teams offering huge contracts to decent-if-not-pretty-good players is over.  Remember when Carlos Silva signed a four year $48 million contract?  Or when Gary Matthews, Jr. signed with the Angels for five years and $50 million?  Teams are being more cautious with long-term contracts as baseball shifts away from high priced free agents and back toward development of young talent.  It's cheaper, and in some cases you get a better player, sticking with internal options.  Is anyone going to give a 36 year old outfielder a four year contract?  Probably not, especially if there is a 20-something outfielder waiting in the wings in AAA.  There are very few players that are worth a long-term commitment for a lot of money: Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer, Felix Hernandez.  For everyone else, if agents are going to continue to demand ludicrous contracts, players are going to get priced out of good situations. 

Roy Halladay Headed to Phillies

It was a very wild day in baseball yesterday as big names were on the move.  The Red Sox signed John Lackey to bolster their rotation, the Angels signed World Series MVP Hideki Matsui, and two Cy Young Award winners were involved in a three team trade.

The trade is the big news, so let's evaluate it for all teams involved.  Roy Halladay has been headed somewhere for almost a year now and made it clear to the Blue Jays that he wouldn't accept a trade (he has a no-trade clause) after spring training began.  Along with Halladay, the Phillies will get a few prospects.  What the Phillies give up is nothing short of a haul.  They will be sending Cliff Lee - arguably their best pitcher in 2009 - to the Mariners and their top two prospects (pitcher Kyle Drabek and outfielder Michael Taylor) to the Blue Jays.  The Jays will also get a catching prospect from Philadelphia. 

Blue Jays - All the Blue Jays ever wanted was top tier prospects that are Major League ready in exchange for the face of their franchise.  Drabek was at High-A ball and AA last year while Taylor split time between AA and AAA.  Catching prospect Travis D'Arnaud was in A ball last year, but is only 20 years old.  Some Blue Jay fans will wonder why Toronto didn't trade Halladay for Boston's collection of prospects last July, but but sending him to the National League, where they won't see him often, benefits the Blue Jays and hurts their AL East rivals.  

Mariners - They trade their top two pitching prospects, according to Baseball America and get Cliff Lee, a Cy Young award winner with one year left on his contract.  This just in: The Mariners are going for it this year.  With a potent one-two punch in Lee and Felix Hernandez and with the Angels losing Lackey, Seattle feels like they can win the division now.  They better, because the cost-conscious Mariners probably won't re-sign Lee (but will happily take the two draft picks when he signs elsewhere) after his contract is up at the end of the year.

Phillies - Roy Halladay has finished in the top 5 in AL Cy Young voting five times, including each of the last four years.  Clearly, he's in the conversation for the best pitcher in baseball. The thing is, though, over the last couple of years, so is Cliff Lee.  How much are the Phillies really improving by swapping Lee for Halladay?  In addition, the Phillies have gutted their farm system by trading seven of their top 10 prospects of 2009 (according to Baseball America) for two pitchers, one of which isn't even on the team anymore.  With their core of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins just a few years from free agency, the Phillies are feeling pressure to win now and are mortgaging their future on it.

Inside the Baseball Winter Meetings

Up until about a year ago, I really had no idea what the Baseball Winter Meetings actually were.  In my imagination, I figured there was a big room with representatives from each team sitting around discussing available players.  That was half of it.  The other half would be different meeting rooms where free agents and their agents could meet with various interested teams.  I know neither of those scenarios are very realistic, but at a very basic level, that's what I thought the Winter Meetings were.  Then I went there to see for myself.

I went to the Baseball Winter Meetings last year in Las Vegas primarily to attend the PBEO Job Fair, where hundreds (if not a thousand) people interested in a job in baseball would go to try to get one.  While I was there, I made sure to head over to the Bellagio to see if I could recognize anyone.  I saw Charlie Manuel, fresh off his World Series victory, introduce his step-son to someone.  Tommy LaSorda was holding court all over the casino.  Torii Hunter was gambling at a table.  All your favorite ESPN personalities were running around trying to get some breaking news.  It was cool stuff for any baseball fan.  Unfortunately for me, I didn't see my idea of a big room with executives sitting around the table come to fruition, but I did come to realize that any discussion involving players takes place in a small room out of the public eye or maybe at a lunch or a drink that looks like casual conversation.  There are actually meetings, too.  There are league meetings and GM meetings, but of course I couldn't go into any of those. 

Since the Job Fair was my main concern, let me tell you how chaotic it was.  There's a room with several boards littered with job internship postings in a tiny font.  In fact, there were very few job postings, much to the disappointment of people in attendance.  The boards were crammed together creating narrow aisles where job seekers would bunch up, push and shove, to try to get information about various jobs.  Once the job seeker wrote down the information, he/she would retreat to a table to write the posting number on a resume and submit it to a big box.  Later in the day or week, teams would post names of job seekers they wanted to interview.  The cycle continued for about four days as postings slowed down and interviews wrapped up.  

The Roy Halladay Trade Watch

The Toronto Blue Jays would like to trade Roy Halladay and receive a haul of quality prospects in return.  The likelihood of that happening decreased early this week as Halladay suggested that he would not waive his no-trade clause after he reports to Spring Training in February. The Jays now face a tough decision: trade Halladay now for a less than desirable group of prospects or wait until next off-season when he becomes a free agent and let him walk, taking two draft picks from the team that signs him. 

I think Toronto would be better off trading Halladay this off-season rather than waiting until next year.  Draft picks, while a nice incentive to hold on to Halladay, are never a sure thing.  Taking established prospects or young MLB-ready players would give the Blue Jays more of a sure thing.  It's always easier to look back in hindsight, but what the Blue Jays should have done is trade Halladay back in July when his value was highest and the team that would receive him would have him for two pennant races before even thinking about his impending free agency.  Since they haven't done that, they should take what they can get for him now. 

As for possible destinations for Halladay, the Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels are all said to be interested in acquiring the perennial Cy Young candidate. 

Players Start Moving as Free Agency Begins

In case the Turkey yesterday put you to sleep, there was big MLB news as former Red Sox shortstop Alex Gonzalez signed with the Blue Jays.  Well maybe it's not big news but until some of the bigger dominoes start to fall, this is the excitement baseball fans can look forward to this off-season.  Gonzalez is one of the first few recognizable names to move teams.  The White Sox have been busy, signing Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel to bolster their depth (I guess they want to re-live 1999), but all has been quiet on the John Lackey-Matt Holliday-Jason Bay front.  In the spirit of Black Friday, let's examine where some of baseball's free agents could wind up.

John Lackey - The Mets have some dollars to spend and Lackey has some dollars to earn.  The biggest prize in this year's free agent class goes to Queens to become starter 1A behind Johan Santana. 

Jason Bay - San Francisco has a strong young pitching staff but is extremely short on bats.  Adding Bay could put the Giants in position to challenge the Dodgers in the NL West in 2010.

Matt Holliday - They may not offer the most money, which could be a problem for his agent, Scott Boras.  Holliday is a great fit in St. Louis and provides the Cardinals with another bat in the middle of the order to help Albert Pujols.  After a disastrous first half of the season in Oakland, I think Holliday re-signs with the Cardinals.

Orlando Hudson - You're going to think I'm nuts, but Hudson signs with the Mets.  Sure, they have some waste named Luis Castillo manning second right now and he's signed through 2011 for $6 million a year, but if the Mets want to contend they need an upgrade at second and Hudson is just the guy.

Marco Scutaro - Scutaro came out of no where to hit 35 home runs this year, surpassing his previous career high of 32.  Predominantly a shortstop, Scutaro is versatile to play any other infield position or a corner outfield position, which adds to his value.  Since Toronto signed Gonzalez, they have no need for Scutaro.  Look for him to play for the Red Sox in 2010.

Adrian Beltre - Looking to upgrade at third base, the Phillies would be an excellent fit for Beltre.  Beltre is one of the best defensive third basemen in the game and can still hit, although his days of hitting 40+ home runs are over.  Imagine that infield.  Howard/Utley/Rollins/Beltre.

Chone Figgins -The White Sox could use a lead-off hitter, but don't expect the Angels to let Figgins go without a fight. My guess is that Anaheim outbids the White Sox for his services.

Johnny Damon - If they can get him for two years, Damon will re-sign with the Yankees.  Despite Scott Boras' wishes that he signs for four years, Damon has made it abundantly clear that he wants to stay in New York, which hurts any bargaining power Boras has.  Damon will be back in New York.

Vladimir Guerrero - Vlad once had the best arm in baseball, and while he can still throw, he can barely move.  Guerrero moves out of Anaheim and goes and spends time as a DH.  He would be a great fit in Texas.

Erik Bedard - Bedard is an interesting case.  He's very talented but hasn't pitched 200 innings ever in his career, although he did pitch 196 in 2006.  Boston GM Theo Epstein has shown he likes taking flyers on pitchers (see: John Smoltz, Brad Penny) and the Red Sox could use another pitcher, so look for an incentive deal for Bedard to sign in Boston.

Jose Valverde - The Astros would like to have Valverde back and only a handful of teams are in need of a closer.  If Philadelphia loses faith in in Brad Lidge, they could be a dark horse for Valverde, otherwise, expect him to stay in Houston.

Joe Mauer: AL MVP and Beyond

A gold glove.  A batting title.  An MVP.  What a year it was for Joe Mauer.   He hit .365 with a career-high 28 home runs and a career-high 96 RBI.  In addition to leading the league in batting average, Mauer led in on-base percentage and slugging percentage.  Aside from one wayward voter, Mauer was the unanimous choice for MVP, despite being limited to 138 games.  

In a way, Joe Mauer is baseball's equivalent of LeBron James.  Both are superstars in their 20s, with MVP awards, drafted by their hometown team and both will be free agents in 2010.  The New York area basketball teams clearly have interest in LeBrown.... what about on the diamond?

FanGraphs.com lists Joe Mauer's value at $36.8 million dollars this season, based on his Wins Above Replacement converted to a dollar value.  While that probably isn't what he'll get annually in his next contract Mauer could command $25 million per year and will surely get a raise from the $12.5 million he'll make in 2010.  The Twins catcher faces the same difficult choice as LeBron: stay home, in a smaller market, for less money or take the money a big market team throws at him.  The Yankees and Red Sox could easily get into a bidding war for his services and the Mets don't have a long term solution at catcher either.  He's the face of the franchise in Minnesota and the Twins are a good team, but they won't have the financial capital to pay Mauer - even with the added revenue from Target Field, which opens next year.  So... if you're Joe Mauer... what do you do?

How to Fix the Gold Glove Awards

The Gold Glove awards are supposed to highlight defensive brilliance at each position in each league.  Unfortunately, the selection process is flawed, since the managers and coaches in each league pick the winners and many times, reputation is the sole criteria in voting.  Torii Hunter wins the Gold Glove pretty much every year despite the fact that he's not the center fielder he once was.  This year there were several problematic Gold Glove winners, capped by Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, who is a notorious sub-par fielder.

Baseball showed that it can evolve last season by stepping into the late 1990s by instituting replay.  Now it's time to to really recognize the best fielders with Gold Gloves.  Here's how:

• Take the vote away from coaches and managers - This is easy.  These guys know a lot about the game but they don't have time to actually watch the game and pay attention to who the good fielders are.  The baseball writers vote for the rest of the awards (minus the silver sluggers) and do a decent enough job at it.  Let's give them a shot.  I would say they are less likely to go just by a player's reputation.  Defensive statistics have increased in popularity in recent years and there are several good metrics to help a voter choose the best candidate.  I highly doubt a manager is going to peruse a statistics site to check on a fielder for his Gold Glove ballot... but maybe a writer will.
• Make the voting public - Right now there are no counts to show that Derek Jeter beat Elvis Andrus by one vote or 14 votes.  Let's start to hold the voters accountable by publishing some vote totals.
• Award a Gold Glove to a LF, a CF, and a RF - Presently, there are three generic "outfield" Gold Gloves.  Absolute garbage.  You can't compare a center fielder to any other position because they cover more ground than either of the corner positions.  At the same time, a guy like Carl Crawford will never be recognized for his outstanding defense because he's not a center fielder.  If infielders are split up by position, there is no reason why outfielders can't be.