Monday, November 24, 2008

The Buzz Around The Bullpen: Happy Holliday For the Oakland A's?


This just in...Jeremy Affeldt signed a 2-year $8 million dollar deal with the San Francisco Giants. In other news, Ryan Dempster signed a 4-year $52 million dollar deal to remain with the Chicago Cubs. Unfortunately, outside of these two signings, the Major League Baseball free agency period has been about as newsworthy as the Detroit Lions' season.

One story that did create some news in the sports world was the trade which sent Matt Hollliday to the Oakland Athletics in exchange for RP Huston Street, SP Greg Smith and a young OF prospect, Carlos Gonzales. At first glance, my reaction was that this trade was a huge win for the Athletics. Now, after having some time to evaluate the trade, I love this trade even more for the A's. Matter of fact, I'm not quite sure what the Rockies were thinking. I believe what makes this trade so awful is when it was made.

If the Rockies would have held on to Holliday even for a couple more weeks, teams that were unable to fill needs through free agency would have started a gambling war looking to land Holliday. Essentially, Colorado could have sat back and reaped the benefits of the desperation of teams vying to land their superstar. Better yet, the Rockies could have held onto Holliday up until this upcoming season's trade deadline. As we've seen in the past, contenders are always willing to pay a little bit more for a guy that might put their team over the top.

The A's are now in a position to either make a statement and sign the superstar long term, or simply allow Holliday to flourish in their lineup and then trade him away at the deadline for a surplus of young talent. (See Billy Beane modus operandi). To the contrary, Colorado is left with a injury-prone reliever, a young starting pitcher with control issues and an outfield prospect that has not really set the minor league system on fire. Even in Gonzales's short stint with the big club, he was ordinary at best. I do believe Gonzales will become an above average Major League outfielder someday but I still feel his "upside" alone was not enough to get this deal done.

From a fantasy standpoint, some critics predict that Holliday's numbers may decline because of his move from a great hitter's park to a foul-ball abyss in Oakland. To those critics...you're absolutely correct. If you disagree, take a look at Holliday's career stats away from Coors field. In only 20 more career games at home, he has almost double the HRs as he did on the road. Also, his career batting average at home is almost 80 points higher than his batting average on the road.

While my fantasy analysis may seem contradictory to my conclusion that Oakland got the better of the deal, it is actually more of a testament of how little Colorado received in return for Holliday. I do look for Holliday's numbers to suffer but Holliday is too good of a hitter to be ignored in the first couple of rounds. Holliday has a great swing and like all great hitters, he will adapt to his home ballpark. While his power numbers will decline, I look for Holliday to learn how to utlize the gaps and cash in on some doubles.

It was great getting back to the "Buzz" and I hope for some more news from free agency. As we've seen in the past, once C.C. or one of the other high profile stars signs, we will see the domino effect.

For now, have a great Thanksgiving holiday and be sure to keep your ears open for the "Buzz Around the Bullpen."





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