Thursday, November 6, 2008

The Puck Stops Here: Ouch


Welcome back to another exciting edition of The Puck Stops Here. The NHL season has finally hit its grove and we are starting to see more “credible” trends appear. The Western Conference teams are scoring a lot more goals and predictably allowing more goals than their Eastern Conference counterparts. Fantasy players need to take note of this when looking to add players. If you need goalie help, looking to the East is probably wise, if you need scoring look to the West.

We are also able to get a handle on the +/- situations for each team and which teams will probably produce plus guys. In the East, look to Buffalo and Montreal as teams that may provide more plus players. On the contrary, you want to avoid the Islanders, Toronto, Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Note, that Washington as a team is a -1, but missing Ovechkin for two games skews that slightly with such a small sample. In the West, San Jose is the only team with a wide plus margin, but I expect Detroit to improve on its current +5. Conversely, I am avoiding Colorado, L.A., Edmonton and Columbus. Dallas is currently a -15, but I think this turns around. Dallas is ripe with a lot of buy low candidates.

The biggest news of the young NHL season is the loss of Future Hall of Famer Martin Brodeur, G, New Jersey, for the next 3-4 months. If you have an open IR spot, stash Marty there, but I can’t justify holding on to him on the bench. They expect 3-4 months, but this prognosis is a bit risky. I’ll take the over. Marty may be back for the fantasy playoffs, but I doubt it. Jersey just wants to stay in contention and limp into the playoffs just in time to get their savior back.

The Brodeur injury is slightly less impactful than the Brady injury in fantasy football, but just about as big of a fantasy injury as you will see all year. Unfortunately, Kevin Weekes, Brodeur's replacement, is not a great consolation prize. Weekes is sitting there in a few of my leagues and I haven’t pulled the trigger. Unless you are currently only rolling with 2 goalies, Weekes, at this point, probably isn’t worth your attention. But keep an eye on Weekes, New Jersey has always been known for its defensive system and Weekes may become worth owning.

Here are a few players making some noise recently.

Kyle Wellwood, C, Vancouver: Wellwood found a small place in my fantasy heart two seasons ago when he provided nearly a point-per-game off the waiver wire. He disappointed many with an abysmal season in Toronto last year, but he is finally skating with more talent then he ever has. He is centering the Vancouver power play between the Sedin twins. There are few power plays combining better talent than what the twins bring to the table. Wellwood is scorching hot right now and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him approach 70 points this year. Center is deeper than ever but I am sure you can find room for Kyle.

Kevin Bieksa, D, Vancouver: Bieksa is one of those fantasy players that you fall in love with because of the potential but end up hating because of the injuries. Like his teammate, Wellwood, he is finding significant power play minutes and taking advantage of them. Over the last week he currently has 1 goal, 4 assists, 6 PIM and 3 power play points. He is available in a large number of leagues because of his constant injury status. Take a chance on him and pray he stays healthy. If he does, you have at least a #3 defenseman.

Ryan Clowe, LW, San Jose: I like Clowe for a few reasons, he is a tough grinder who can score, he isn’t afraid to get scrappy and put on the foil, and he plays for San Jose. A one-legged monkey could produce in San Jose these days. Clowe has always shown signs that he could score and provide a physical presence, but he has never put it together for an extended period of time. With San Jose running on all cylinders, the smart money is on him continuing his solid play.

Tuomo Ruutu, W, Carolina: Ruutu is the much more talented version of the Ruutu brothers, but doesn’t lack the ability to mix it up. He currently has 4 goals and 4 assists in 8 games as well as 17 PIM. His power play time has also increased as a result of his more consistent offensive play. Ruutu was once a top ten overall pick, the talent is there, but he just has never put it together. Part of the problem was injuries and part of the problem was Chicago was pretty bad for a while. He is currently playing on one of the better offensive teams he has even been with and his production should see a boost because of it. I could see something like 30 goals, 20 assists and 80 PIM. Not too shabby, especially for a Ruutu.

As with any SportsJudge.com article, feel free to post a comment or question. Until next week, The Puck Stops Here.




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