Welcome back to the first edition of the “Buzz Around the Bullpen” for the 2009 Major League Baseball season. The offseason was certainly interesting with trades, free-agent signings, and the beginning of the Yankees’ conquest to take over the world. Although the first pitch of the season will not be thrown for another two months, it’s never too soon to start studying for your upcoming fantasy draft.
With that being said, over the course of the next two months, my weekly article will consist of a position by position analysis that will leave you more than prepared for your draft day. In order to help you out on draft day, I will present the players to you in three separate tiers. The first tier will consist of players that you can build your championship team around. The second tier will be made up of players who you can rely on but won’t be the centerpiece to your squad. The third tier of players will be mostly role players who will essentially fill a positional need on your team.
For right now, let’s get started by taking a look at the Outfielders.
Studs
1. Grady Sizemore (CLE): In terms of fantasy value, I’m not sure anyone else can compare with the full package that Grady brings to the table. Last year Grady combined his 33 homeruns with 38 stolen bases. While his critics will harp on the fact he’s never hit .300, I challenge you to find a more complete fantasy outfielder. In 2009, he’ll have a healthier supporting cast and he’ll still only be 26 years-old. I look for Grady to put up at least comparable numbers to last year…and I’d love those numbers on my team.
2. Josh Hamilton (TEX): If you read any of my articles from last year, you already know about my “bromance” with Josh Hamilton. Last year, Hamilton finished hitting .302 with 32 homeruns and 130 RBIs. With one more year of hitting MLB pitching, I look for even better numbers this year.
3. Ryan Braun (MIL): The thought coming into ’08 was that Braun could not match his unreal rookie numbers. Unfortunately for National League pitchers, he did a pretty good job of doing just that. You could argue that there was a drop-off last year because he was able to put up those similar numbers in ’07 in 160 fewer at-bats. Do yourself a favor…don’t make that argument outside the confines of your own home. Let’s face it, this guy will be a 35 HR, 100 RBI guy for the next 7 years.
4. Carlos Quentin (CHW): Quentin broke onto the scene in ’08 in a big way. Before being injured in early September, Quentin managed to hit 36 homeruns in only 480 at-bats. Rare for such a young power hitter, Quentin has shown the ability to get on base and I look for his approach at the plate only to improve as he gets more MLB at-bats.
5. Carlos Beltran (NYM): I consider the 32 year-old version of Beltran as “Grady Sizemore Light.” While he’ll never lead the league in homeruns or stolen bases, he does a little bit of everything. It will be interesting to see how Beltran adjusts to a new ballpark which is rumored to be more hitter friendly than Shea Stadium. Beltran’s career is definitely on the downturn but he is still a fantasy stud that puts up consistent numbers.
6. Alfonso Soriano (CHC): Soriano is one of those guys that will drive you crazy as an owner. Just as you’re ready to pull the trigger on a trade to get rid of him, he’ll hit five homeruns in three days. Regardless of when he does it, if you hang on to him for the entire season, you’re almost guaranteed stud fantasy numbers. Since 2002 the fewest number of homeruns he has hit is 28. In addition to his power potential, he has stolen at least 18 bases over the past 8 seasons. In five of those eight seasons he’s stolen 30 or more bases. As much as he’ll drive you crazy, you can’t argue with his ability to put up huge fantasy numbers.
7. B.J. Upton (TB): If you’re worried about a guy coming off of shoulder problems, take a look at Carlos Quentin in ’08. I’m pretty sure that went well for him. Before tearing his labrum in his left shoulder, Upton was expected to break-out in ’08. Instead he finished with only 9 homeruns and 67 RBIs. After some off-season surgery, Upton will at least return to his ’07 numbers when he hit 24 homeruns. Add in a guaranteed 35 stolen bases and a decent on-base percentage and you have a stud fantasy outfielder.
8. Matt Holliday (OAK): I know I’ll be receiving some heat for putting Matt Holliday as only the number eighth best outfielder. In the words of SNL greats Hans and Franz, “hear me now, see me lata.” Matt Holliday will not put up the numbers he put up in Colorado. If you don’t believe me, look at his career home/away numbers. Holliday is still a great player and I look for an increase in doubles and stolen bases. However, his power numbers and average are going to take a huge hit with his move to Oakland.
9. Manny Ramirez (FA): I really hate to even rank Manny anywhere in these projections. As we’ve seen, Manny will put up the numbers that he feels like putting up. Assuming Manny is “happy”, he has the ability to put up ridiculous numbers (see Manny in L.A.) and that’s the Manny I’m ranking at number nine. However, if Manny is back to “being Manny”, he can be extremely ordinary. Stay posted because Manny’s fantasy value will definitely depend on where he signs and for how long he signs. If he doesn’t get the money and the length of contract he feels he deserves, buyer beware.
Wingmen
10. Carlos Lee (MIL): El Caballo is about as sure a .300, 30 HRs, 100 RBIs hitter as you can find. Lee could easily suffice as you’re number one outfielder.
With that being said, over the course of the next two months, my weekly article will consist of a position by position analysis that will leave you more than prepared for your draft day. In order to help you out on draft day, I will present the players to you in three separate tiers. The first tier will consist of players that you can build your championship team around. The second tier will be made up of players who you can rely on but won’t be the centerpiece to your squad. The third tier of players will be mostly role players who will essentially fill a positional need on your team.
For right now, let’s get started by taking a look at the Outfielders.
Studs
1. Grady Sizemore (CLE): In terms of fantasy value, I’m not sure anyone else can compare with the full package that Grady brings to the table. Last year Grady combined his 33 homeruns with 38 stolen bases. While his critics will harp on the fact he’s never hit .300, I challenge you to find a more complete fantasy outfielder. In 2009, he’ll have a healthier supporting cast and he’ll still only be 26 years-old. I look for Grady to put up at least comparable numbers to last year…and I’d love those numbers on my team.
2. Josh Hamilton (TEX): If you read any of my articles from last year, you already know about my “bromance” with Josh Hamilton. Last year, Hamilton finished hitting .302 with 32 homeruns and 130 RBIs. With one more year of hitting MLB pitching, I look for even better numbers this year.
3. Ryan Braun (MIL): The thought coming into ’08 was that Braun could not match his unreal rookie numbers. Unfortunately for National League pitchers, he did a pretty good job of doing just that. You could argue that there was a drop-off last year because he was able to put up those similar numbers in ’07 in 160 fewer at-bats. Do yourself a favor…don’t make that argument outside the confines of your own home. Let’s face it, this guy will be a 35 HR, 100 RBI guy for the next 7 years.
4. Carlos Quentin (CHW): Quentin broke onto the scene in ’08 in a big way. Before being injured in early September, Quentin managed to hit 36 homeruns in only 480 at-bats. Rare for such a young power hitter, Quentin has shown the ability to get on base and I look for his approach at the plate only to improve as he gets more MLB at-bats.
5. Carlos Beltran (NYM): I consider the 32 year-old version of Beltran as “Grady Sizemore Light.” While he’ll never lead the league in homeruns or stolen bases, he does a little bit of everything. It will be interesting to see how Beltran adjusts to a new ballpark which is rumored to be more hitter friendly than Shea Stadium. Beltran’s career is definitely on the downturn but he is still a fantasy stud that puts up consistent numbers.
6. Alfonso Soriano (CHC): Soriano is one of those guys that will drive you crazy as an owner. Just as you’re ready to pull the trigger on a trade to get rid of him, he’ll hit five homeruns in three days. Regardless of when he does it, if you hang on to him for the entire season, you’re almost guaranteed stud fantasy numbers. Since 2002 the fewest number of homeruns he has hit is 28. In addition to his power potential, he has stolen at least 18 bases over the past 8 seasons. In five of those eight seasons he’s stolen 30 or more bases. As much as he’ll drive you crazy, you can’t argue with his ability to put up huge fantasy numbers.
7. B.J. Upton (TB): If you’re worried about a guy coming off of shoulder problems, take a look at Carlos Quentin in ’08. I’m pretty sure that went well for him. Before tearing his labrum in his left shoulder, Upton was expected to break-out in ’08. Instead he finished with only 9 homeruns and 67 RBIs. After some off-season surgery, Upton will at least return to his ’07 numbers when he hit 24 homeruns. Add in a guaranteed 35 stolen bases and a decent on-base percentage and you have a stud fantasy outfielder.
8. Matt Holliday (OAK): I know I’ll be receiving some heat for putting Matt Holliday as only the number eighth best outfielder. In the words of SNL greats Hans and Franz, “hear me now, see me lata.” Matt Holliday will not put up the numbers he put up in Colorado. If you don’t believe me, look at his career home/away numbers. Holliday is still a great player and I look for an increase in doubles and stolen bases. However, his power numbers and average are going to take a huge hit with his move to Oakland.
9. Manny Ramirez (FA): I really hate to even rank Manny anywhere in these projections. As we’ve seen, Manny will put up the numbers that he feels like putting up. Assuming Manny is “happy”, he has the ability to put up ridiculous numbers (see Manny in L.A.) and that’s the Manny I’m ranking at number nine. However, if Manny is back to “being Manny”, he can be extremely ordinary. Stay posted because Manny’s fantasy value will definitely depend on where he signs and for how long he signs. If he doesn’t get the money and the length of contract he feels he deserves, buyer beware.
Wingmen
10. Carlos Lee (MIL): El Caballo is about as sure a .300, 30 HRs, 100 RBIs hitter as you can find. Lee could easily suffice as you’re number one outfielder.
11. Jason Bay (BOS): Look for Bay to continue to build on his strong post-season performance. For the first time in his career, Bay has something to play for every day he comes to the ballpark.
12. Ichiro Suzuki (SEA): Here’s the easiest prediction I’ll make all year…Ichiro will hit over .300 and steal a ton of bases. You can’t put a price on consistency.
13. Carl Crawford (TB): Once the sweetheart of fantasy owners, Crawford’s value took a hit in ’08. While his offensive numbers declined, the most alarming stat was that Crawford only stole 25 bags in ’08.
14. Nick Markakis (BAL): One more year of MLB at-bats can only be good news for Markakis. I look for Markakis to put up numbers that are more comparable to his ’07 season. When this guy finally realizes his potential, he will be a top 8 fantasy outfielder. This year may be the year.
15. Matt Kemp (LAD): Speaking of having superstar potential…Kemp has all the tools and it is only a matter of time before he becomes a household name throughout baseball. He’s still only 24 and that might be the only thing that could possibly hold him back.
16. Vladmir Guerrero (LAA): On the other side of the spectrum, Vlad is on the backside of a great MLB career. Combine the departure of Mark Teixeira, some offseason knee surgery and the fact that Vlad is getting older by the day and you’re looking at a decline in his numbers. However, he still has enough to put up some decent fantasy numbers.
17. Alex Rios (TOR): I’m starting to think Adam LaRoche and Alex Rios were separated at birth. Neither seems to be able to put together a full season. Rios does have the ability to steal some bases so even if he only hits 20 HRs, he still has great value. His upside to hit more than 20 HRs is too much to ignore.
18. Nate McLouth (PIT): I originally had McLouth much higher but I stepped back and put my hometown bias aside. I am a believer in McLouth but I expect a slight decline in his power numbers.
19. Curtis Granderson (DET): Granderson continues to be someone who seems to be on the cusp of something great. Unfortunately, I’m not quite sure he’ll ever break-through. Throughout his career he has not shown the ability to put everything together. Look for more of the same from Granderson.
20. Adam Dunn (FA): Considering he’s hit exactly 40 HRs in his past four seasons, you pretty much know what you’re getting…a ton of HRs and a ton of RBIs and runs. Unfortunately, you also know his average will be nothing to write home about. It will be interesting to see where Dunn ends up. Most feel that he will end up in Washington. Stay posted.
21. Raul Ibanez (PHI): I’m not sure there is a more underrated hitter in baseball. Although Ibanez is getting a little bit older, his move to Philadelphia gives him an opportunity to hit in a great lineup and in a great ballpark. Ibanez has the chance to put up some great numbers in ’09.
22. Ryan Ludwick (STL): Ludwick came out of nowhere and hit 37 HRs while batting .299 in ‘08. Before I jump completely on the bandwagon, I’d like to see another season of production.
23. Vernon Wells (TOR): I don’t think 27 HRs, .290 and 94 RBIs are out of the question for Vernon Wells. When healthy last year, Wells was quite impressive hitting 20 HRs in only 427 at-bats. The hope is that Wells can return to his ’05 and ’06 form.
24. Corey Hart (MIL): Here’s to hoping that last year was only a stumble for Hart. He still needs to grow as a MLB hitter and I think he will in ’09. Hart will steal some bases and that along with his upside make him someone that is worth taking a chance on. The market will never be lower on him so you may be able to make him a great value pick in the middle rounds.
The Best of the Rest
25. Shane Victorino (PHI)
26. Magglio Ordonez (DET)
27. Torii Hunter (LAA)
28. Brad Hawpe (COL)
29. Milton Bradley (CHI)
30. Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)
31. Chris B. Young (ARI)
32. Hunter Pence (HOU)
33. Pat Burrell (TB)
34. Jermaine Dye (CHW)
35. Jay Bruce (CIN)
Please be sure to check back next week when we take a look at First Basemen.
As with any SportsJudge articles, please feel free to post any questions or comments. Until next time, keep your ears open for the Buzz Around the Bullpen.
Posts
13 comments:
B.J. Upton also had 9 home runs and 67 RBI in the playoffs.
Brian you bring up a great point. Upton was unreal during the postseason and I look for more of the same from him in '09. His upside is tremendous and he truly is a future superstar in the making.
Your comment about Manny Ramirez baffles me… buyer beware? He was at his worst in Boston - unhappy and careless - and he still hit .299! He is who he is, the man produces and is a first ballot Hall-of-Famer that hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. Yes, he’s a head case, but he is going to put up incredible numbers no matter where he goes.
On a different note, I noticed you are ranking Ludwick low because he is an unproven power hitter, but Quentin (another unproven power hitter) you put almost twenty spots higher. I am not saying that Ludwick equals Quentin by any means. In my opinion you are spot on ranking Ludwick at 22 - that’s where I put him initially. But I feel like you’re stretching putting Quentin at 4. Is it because Quentin was overhyped for his previous season in Arizona and was a more well-known prospect than Ludwick?
I see a lot of similarities in their game. Ludwick is a few years older and broke onto the scene later in his career (he had a few injuries in the minors if I recall correctly). He wasn’t a first rounder like Quentin (round 1 pick 29), but he was an early second rounder (pick 9). If you look at their 162 game averages so far, they are very equal: Ludwick hits a HR every 18 AB’s and Quentin hits one every 17.5. Ludwick also has a higher OPS so far as well.
I agree that Quentin’s potential is going to push him higher than Ludwick, who has peaked. Quentin has his prime years ahead of him. Still, I think you’re bold to rank him above proven hitters such as Holliday, Manny, Carlos Lee, Bay, and Beltran. He is a great player and can definitely produce at the level he did last year, but even though he was a highly-touted prospect, I don't think you considered enough the fact that he is unproven.
All that said, I do have a point. Is the reason Quentin is ranked so high that you are really banking on his potential? Or is there something you’re seeing beyond all this information I just dropped on the two players.
(Sorry for the long comment)
Referring to Upton, it was said that his shoulder was hurting all season, hence the lack of power production. He was thought to be finally healthy during the playoffs. He should be back to 20+ HR's this season if he can remain healthy.
I agree with a large part of this list but think both Quentin and Hamilton are overrated on a risk/reward basis. Sometimes I think steady beats sexy, at least in the early rounds.
Call me crazy but I would take Carl Crawford (your no. 13) over Carlos Quentin (your no. 4).
Crawford stood out to me as well...but the biggest surprise for me was Carlos Lee not in the list of studs. You mentioned he is a solid bet to reach 100 RBI's. When he went down with an injury in early August last year he was already leading the NL with 100 RBI's...I think this at least pegs him in the top 9 right?
I think Crawford is around where he should be. His power numbers haven't really shown up at all and has declined over the past two seasons. I know he missed 40 games or so due to injury and he played in a bunch more when he probably should have been on the DL. He is on the cusp of the top 10 outfielders in with Rios, Quentin, Upton, and Markakis. I really feel that Crawford is a bit overrated until he can prove that he can hit 20 Homers. That is why he was pegged to be such a superstar. They felt the power would develop and continue to blossom after his 18 HR season and it never has.
Marc, I don't think you would be crazy at all to select Crawford over Quentin.
Mike, I don't think what you said about El Caballo could have been more correct. His numbers are fantastic year in and year out. He is definitely an underrated outfielder.
First off, I'd really like to thank all you guys for beginning was become a great debate. If possible, I'd like to respond to all of your posts in one response. I apologize if this becomes convoluted and sporadic but I'll do my past to convey my reasoning to you guys.
Kevin, I totally agree that Manny is a first ballot hall-of-famer and will go down as one of the best right-handed hitters of all-time. With that being said, Manny can, has, and will self-destruct if he's not happy. Beneath the "Manny being Manny" cover is a...for lack of a better word, "baby." While his agent Scott Boras will tell you that this offseason rollercoaster is exactly what they thought it would be, it's not. Boras and Manny came in after his unreal finish in L.A. and asked for a ridiculous contract (more maybe b/c of the length as opposed to the money). Here we are a couple months later and no legitimate buyers have stepped forward. Eventually someone will give him what he wants contractually but let's be honest with one another...Manny will not come to the ballpark and give 100% for a losing team. He was a cancer in what some have called the "greatest clubhouse in MLB" in Boston. While he still put up above-average numbers in Boston, do you remember when he faked an injury so he wouldn't have to play?
I understand your points and they are extremely valid. However, I truly believe Manny will play only as well as he wants to. As a fantasy owner, that scares me. If I'm selecting someone that high, I want to know that an injury and not their attitude will be the only thing stopping them from producing elite fantasy numbers.
As far as the Quentin/Ludwick debate I don't see the comparison like you do. Ludwick is a 30 year old outfielder who has spent the better part of his 9 year professional career in the minor leagues and getting limited at-bats in MLB. Yes, he was a high draft pick but so was the guy that's now giving your nephew lessons at the local baseball instruction school. I do agree, you can't argue with 37 HRs and yes, every once in a while you see a guy mature late. But Quentin has been a prospect and I believe is finally living up to it. He's four years younger and most hitters are hitting their "prime" right about that time. So putting all of this aside to answer your question, I think I'm ranking him that high because of what he's done and how he's done it. If you look at his numbers across the board, he had a monster year. Another thing, don't underestimate the fact that he was able to do that in a new league. For me, that tells me a lot about a hitter. It tells me he has a great approach at the plate, he stays within himself and he remains consistent in his at-bats. To see that in a young hitter, it speaks volumes about his potential. Of course you can make the argument that now that the AL pitchers have the "book" on him, he'll struggle. That's a much larger argument for another day but I will say, I firmly believe that a pitcher has the advantage over a hitter the first couple times they face one another. Add all of these things up with my "gut" feeling about this guy and that's why I have him at number 4.
Kevin thank you for your comments..they were very well taken.
Marc,
I have to disagree with you on your points about Quentin and Hamilton. Obviously my thoughts on Quentin are already above so I'll just focus on Hamilton. Hamilton came into the league as one of the most highly touted talents in years. Everyone knows the "feel-good" story so I won't go there but I believe this is the prospect people were going crazy over. To be honest, I think the best is yet to come for Josh Hamilton. Granted it was BP and it was Homerun Derby but the show he put on at last year's all-star game was the most impressive hitting display I've ever seen. This guy is a freak and if he can stay on the straight and narrow, he has the chance to be great...like top two or three player in the league great. I saw this guy hit two years ago for the Reds and was immediately impressed. I told fellow SportsJudge blogger Joe Romano at the beginning of last year that he would be unreal and I stand by that again for this year. He has played in only 246 MLB games in his career...a little over a season and a half. Think about what this guy is going to do when he's been in the league for 3 or 4 years. Last but certainly not least...he plays half of his games in Texas. Hamilton could get fisted by fastballs 8 times a year and have enough strength to put it out of that bandbox. Now add in the other 15 times when he's sitting dead red and gets a fastball he blasts 440+ feet. There's 22 HRs right there.
Lastly, and I apologize for the length. I am really down on Carl Crawford this year. Until he shows me again he can steal 40+ bases and hit for decent power again, I'm steering clear. I know this is impossible to do but look at his career stats outside of stolen bases. He's extremely ordinary. A couple of years ago he was the man...now enter B.J Upton, Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Kemp (maybe not as many SBs for Kemp) and they can do what Crawford did and potentially hit for more power. For me, Crawford has two strikes against him. Crawford's like a Edgerin James. He's potentially on the downswing and there are a lot of guys that are now doing close to what he could do in his better years. (maybe a poor analogy but only one I could think of)
One last thing, El Caballo is a stud. Immediately after submitting the post I thought about expanding the "studs" section and adding him. The only thing I'd watch out for is a decrease in his power numbers. The past three years his HR totals have decreased and he is almost a non-threat to steal bases anymore. I think that big frame is finally slowing him down. But to respond to your comment, yes...he is a stud and he was wrongfully omitted.
I'm not going to get into the longer debate, but to me right now (and Scott you touched on this) there's very little difference between Crawford and Ellsbury. I wouldn't put either in the top 15.
I don't think you can compare Ellsbury to Crawford. Yes, Ellsbury has great potential, but has barely played more than a season of baseball. He stole 50 bases, which is awesome, but only hit .280 and just 9 home runs. I think people don't realize that Crawford was playing hurt a lot last season. Ellsbury could become a top tier outfielder with a bit more power, but I don't know if he will ever hit more than 15. Crawford has hit more than 15 homers before and he was hitting over .300 (3 seasons in a row before this past year). Ellsbury needs another season with more production and needs Crawford to continue to struggle for them to be considered equals.
I didn't even mention the fact that Crawford is coming into what is considered the "prime" season at age 27 and he is only 2 years older than Ellsbury.
Hey Guys,
I don't want to beat a dead horse but I agree with Brian. The most HRs that Carl Crawford has ever hit in one season is 18. Last year in his first season where he had over 500 at-bats, Ellsbury had 9 HRs and hit .280.
I'm not saying Ellsbury is the next big thing but you can grab him a little later in your draft and he will be a nice value pick.
Despite his recent struggles, (and I understand he was injured) Crawford is still highly regarded by some owners. My advice is to let those guys grab him early and sit back and draft a guy like Ellsbury a little later.
Thanks again for the comments guys.
I agree with you on avoiding Crawford, but at the same time I don't think he should be being compared with Ellsbury just yet.
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