"Miranda Warnings": 2009 "Studs and Duds" (Part 2 of 2)

Welcome to the 2009 version of "Miranda Warnings", your weekly guide to what's happening in the world of Major League Baseball, from a fantasy baseball perspective. Every Saturday, throughout baseball's regular season, "Miranda Warnings" will appear on SportsJudge.com. I'm your host Michael Miranda.

It's that time of year again. With Major League Baseball's regular season on the horizon, fantasy baseball magazines litter the magazine stands. The fantasy baseball magazines (and websites) have their player rankings, their sleepers/busts, and their cheat sheets. But, the fantasy baseball magazines and websites don't have "studs and duds"!

Welcome to the second of "Miranda Warnings" two-part series, "studs and duds" . Today, I bring you the 2009 "duds" (i.e. a player to avoid). I'll select one "dud" from each Major League team.

Having the title of "Miranda Warnings" dud does not mean, imply or suggest that the player is the worst player on his Major League team. A "Miranda Warnings" dud might not even be a player who falls flat on his face in 2009 (i.e. Andruw Jones in 2008), but he's a player that I would avoid on Draft Day 2009 because I expect him to be a disappointment. Some of the duds below will have value in 2009. Just make sure that you don't overpay for them because they will, more than likely, let you down. The "duds" profiles below are based on talent (or, lack thereof), lack of playing-time and extenuating circumstances. Let's get to it!

American League East:

Baltimore Orioles: At age 37, and rehabbing from off-season shoulder surgery, 3B Melvin Mora will disappoint. Don't expect more than: .270-.280 BA, 70-80 runs, 10-15 HR's, 70-75 RBI's.

Boston Red Sox: DH David Ortiz is a great hitter. However, one of the reasons that Big Papi put up great numbers in recent years was the presence of Manny Ramirez in the Boston lineup. Ramirez is now a Los Angeles Dodger. No Manny, could mean big headaches for Ortiz. Additionally, Ortiz is 33 years old, and missed two months in 2008 with a wrist injury. Don't expect more than: .270-.280 BA, 80-90 runs, 25-30 HR's, 90-100 RBI's.

NY Yankees: All-world 3B Alex Rodriguez is sure to disappoint in 2009. Why is A-Rod on the "Miranda Warnings" dud list? I'm glad you asked. Let me explain. During the off-season, it was discovered that A-Rod used steroids during his Texas Rangers' days. The steroids controversy (and its fallout), along with the fact that he begins the regular-season on the DL with a hip injury, puts A-Rod (and his fantasy GM's) at a disadvantage. A-Rod is expected to return to the field in mid-May. When he returns, he'll have missed about six weeks. It could be late May/early June before A-Rod regains his stroke and timing. Yes, four months of A-Rod is better than six months for most players. I'm simply saying, temper your expectations. Don't expect more than: .290-.300 BA, 80-90 runs, 25-30 HR's, 90-100 RBI's.

Tampa Bay Rays: Diminutive P Scott Kazmir is viewed by many to be an ace, and he's not. Kazmir has had several arm injuries in his career, yet he remains a popular fantasy baseball selection. The hype surrounding Kazmir's talent overshadows his injury risk (i.e. Rich Harden), resulting in him being over-valued on Draft Day. There's no doubting that Kaz is talented, but I'm passing on starting pitcher who, more than likely, can't give me 175 IP's. Don't expect more than: 10-13 wins, 3.50-4.00 ERA, 160-170 K's.

Toronto Blue Jays: It wasn't too long ago that OF Vernon Wells was supposed to be the next great outfielder. Look at Wells' last three seasons, and you'll notice that he is nothing more than an above-average outfielder. Wells is very overrated, plain and simple. He has value, but don't draft him thinking he's a top-20 outfielder, cause he's not. Don't expect more than: .280-.290 BA, 80-90 runs, 20-25 HR's, 90-100 RBI's.

American League Central:

Chicago White Sox: 2B Alexei Ramirez had a sensational rookie season which will, more than likely, have him over-valued on Draft Day 2009. I'm not sold on Ramirez yet because of a very poor OBP (.317), and a 4-to-1 K/BB ratio. Ramirez will have value in 2009, and beyond, because he can put up nice numbers at a scarce position. However, I think expectations are too high. Don't expect more than: .280-.290 BA, 80-90 runs, 15-20 HR's, 70-80 RBI's, 10-15 SB's.

Cleveland Indians: From 2004-2006, DH Travis Hafner was feared by pitchers. Now, he's an after-thought! Hafner had off-season shoulder to hopefully cure what is ailing him. He hasn't shown anything in spring training that indicates he's capable of being productive again. Don't expect more than: .260-.270 BA, 60-70 runs, 15-20 HR's, 60-70 RBI's.

Detroit Tigers: P Armando Galarraga burst onto the scene in 2008! I give him lots of credit for exceeding all expectations. However, it's hard to imagine him repeating his 2008 numbers because there's nothing in his minor league track record that suggests he's this good. Don't expect more than: 7-10 wins, 4.00-4.50 ERA, 135-145 K's.

Kansas City Royals: Because he far exceeded expectations in 2008, 2B/SS Mike Aviles is the popular choice to disappoint in KC in 2009. However, I have a better candidate. 1B Mike Jacobs OBP in 2008 was .299! Let me repeat that... .299! It's amazing that he still has a Major League job. Let alone, a starting job! Don't expect more than: .240-.250 BA, 60-70 runs, 20-25 HR's, 65-75 RBI's.

Minnesota Twins: OF Denard Span had a strong 2008. His strong showing led us to believe that he might have an everyday job in 2009. However, there was nothing in Span's minor league history that indicated he would produce as he did in 2008. He's having a horrible spring training (.159 BA through 3/30) and appears to be a utility player heading into 2009. Don't expect more than: .270-.280 BA, 60-70 runs, 5-10 HR's, 40-50 RBI's, 10-15 SB's.

American League West:

LA Angels: One of the great breakout stories of 2008, may turn into a 2009 bust. P Ervin Santana has been shutdown indefinitely due to elbow pain. MLB.com reports that Santana will miss all of April. Rehab will be the first step, in an attempt to strengthen the elbow. If surgery is required, Santana will miss all of 2009. Ouch! Don't expect more than: 10-13 wins, 4.00-4.50 ERA, 125-135 K's.

Oakland A's: Oakland's signing of 1B/DH Jason Giambi shows how little faith the organization has in 1B Daric Barton. After last year's numbers, I tend to agree with Oakland! Don't expect more than: .260-.270 BA, 50-60 runs, 10-15 HR's, 40-50 RBI's.

Seattle Mariners: Seattle is committed to 1B/DH Russell Branyan!He's having a solid spring, but he's nothing more than a Rob Deer clone! Why Seattle is relying on Branyan, is anyone's guess. Don't expect more than: .230-.240 BA, 40-50 runs, 15-20 HR's, 40-50 RBI's.

Texas Rangers: The entire Texas starting rotation! Shame on you, if a Texas starting pitcher resides on your fantasy roster during the 2009 season!

National League East:

Atlanta Braves: 3B Chipper Jones puts up solid numbers, when he plays. Unfortunately, he's injured so often that it's difficult to determine his value. I've never, not even once, had him on any of my rosters in my thirteen years of participating in fantasy baseball, which should tell you how risky he is. If you're ok with 400-425 AB's (maybe less!), Chipper is your man! Don't expect more than: .300-.310 BA, 70-80 runs, 20-25 HR's, 70-80 RBI's.

Philadelphia Phillies: 3B Pedro Feliz is the epitome of a dud. The only thing that Feliz does well, for fantasy baseball purposes, is hit a few home runs. In 2008, he hit only fourteen homers, which further decreases his value. But wait, it gets worse. Feliz had off-season back surgery, he has one of the worst OBP's in the history of MLB, and Philadelphia prospect Jason Donald is almost ready to take over at third base. Hopefully, you get the point that I'm making about Feliz! Don't expect more than: .240-.250 BA, 40-50 runs, 10-15 HR's, 40-50 RBI's.

NY Mets: Mention 2B Luis Castillo, and Mets fans cringe! Although they tried, the Mets couldn't give him away during the off-season. They are stuck with him, but you don't have to be! Castillo shouldn't be on a major league roster or your fantasy roster! Don't expect more than: .270-.280 BA, 60-70 runs, 1-3 HR's, 20-30 RBI's.

Florida Marlins: 1B Jorge Cantu went bonkers in 2008! And, nobody saw it coming. In 2009, Cantu won't sneak up on anyone. He's expected to do well, which is why I think he'll regress. He won't regress much. But, it's unfair to expect him to duplicate his 2008 numbers. Don't expect more than: .270-.280 BA, 60-70 runs, 20-25 HR's, 70-80 RBI's.

Washington Nationals: SS Cristian Guzman was solid in 2008. In 2009, you can expect his numbers to drop across the board. Don't expect more than: .270-.280 BA, 60-70 runs, 5-10 HR's, 70-80 RBI's.

National League Central:

Chicago Cubs: If you enjoy owning a player who will miss a few games each week, several games each month and have a few DL stints during the season, then OF Milton Bradley is your man! The Cubs signed Bradley to a three year, $30 million deal, and inquiring minds want to know "why?" Bradley spends more time in the trainer's room, than the baseball field, which should be reason enough for you to keep him off your fantasy team. Don't expect more than: .290-.300 BA, 60-70 runs, 15-20 HR's, 60-70 RBI's.

Cincinnati Reds: OF Willy Taveras steals lots of bases and scores a decent amount of runs. Unfortunately, he does little else. Don't expect more than: .260-.270 BA, 70-80 runs, 1-3 HR's, 20-30 RBI's.

Houston Astros: Just like OF Willy Taveras above, OF Michael Bourn steals lots of bases and scores a decent amount of runs. Unfortunately, he does little else. Don't expect more than: .250-.260 BA, 60-70 runs, 1-5 HR's, 30-40 RBI's.

Milwaukee Brewers: P Trevor Hoffman, is ancient, and it's beginning to show. He has a strained right oblique muscle, which has landed him on the DL. Don't expect more than: 25-30 saves, 3.50-4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates: OF Nate McLouth burst onto the scene in 2008. However, there's a very good chance that 2009 won't be as kind to "Nate the Great"! In 2008, McLouth had lineup protection (Xavier Nady, Jason Bay). In 2009, both Nady (Yankees) and Bay (Red Sox) are gone. Don't expect more than: .265-.275 BA, 70-80 runs, 15-20 HR's, 80-90 RBI's, 15-20 SB's.

St. Louis Cardinals: Just as I was completing this edition of "Miranda Warnings", I learned that 3B Troy Glaus (shoulder) suffered a setback and won't return until after the All-Star break. Don't expect more than: .260-.270 BA, 70-80 runs, 10-15 HR's, 40-50 RBI's.

National League West:

Arizona Diamondbacks: In 2008, 3B Mark Reynolds set a Major League by striking out 200+ times! 200+ times! Wow! In 2009, the massive strikeout rate should eat into his final numbers. Don't expect more than: .250-.260 BA, 60-70 runs, 20-25 HR's, 70-80 RBI's.

Colorado Rockies: Huston Street beat out P Manny Corpas for closing duties. For those of you who aleady drafted Corpas, get a replacement ASAP. Don't expect more than: 5-10 saves, 3.50-4.00 ERA, 1.45 WHIP.

LA Dodgers: P Jason Schmidt is recovering from off-season shoulder surgery, and is not guaranteed a rotation spot. Don't expect more than: 7-10 wins, 4.00-4.50 ERA, 125-135 K's.

San Diego Padres: OF Brian Giles has plummeted since arriving from Pittsburgh and 2009 will be no different. Don't expect more than: .265-.275 BA, 70-80 runs, 5-10 HR's, 50-60 RBI's.

San Francisco Giants: After a stellar 2008, the only way for C Bengie Molina to go is down! Don't expect more than: .265-.275 BA, 40-50 runs, 10-15 HR's, 50-60 RBI's.

3/28/09 omission: Last Week's edition of "Miranda Warnings" inadvertently posted Shane Victorino's incorrect potential/upside. Victorino's correct potential/upside is: .280-.290 BA, 100-110 runs, 15-20 HR's, 75-85 RBI's, 30-40 SB's! My apologies for the omission!

Thanks for reading "Miranda Warnings"!

See you next Saturday!

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