NFL Free Agency Recap

[Editor's Note: Got the itch for Fantasy Football? Today's NFL Free Agency update comes from guest writer Juliann Haynes. Also, be sure to check out "O'Malley's" NFL rookie combine recap here as we quickly approach the NFL draft. ]

Though often overshadowed by the glitz of the draft, the NFL free agency period is one of the most important events in fantasy football. While the draft has all the glamour of parceling out the best of the best of incoming talent, free agency can dictate what situations players old and new will find themselves in this season and consequently, how successful they will likely be. With this in mind, here is a look at some of the big-name acquisitions of the free agency period and their impact on fantasy rosters this fall.

TO to Buffalo

Let me get this out of the way, I cannot stand Terrell Owens. I have very little patience for drama queens and egocentrics, however, I believe T.O. could thrive in Buffalo under the right circumstances giving fantasy owners good returns. So why will it work? Media circus aside, T.O. is an offensive weapon and this is just what the Bills need to give them a legitimate shot at the playoffs. Despite a tumultuous season with the Cowboys, T.O. still led the team and ranked 13th in the nation in receiving yards; and this was his lowest production level in the past three years. Clearly T.O. still has a lot left in him. While Buffalo relies heavily on the run game, T.O.’s talent coupled with Marshawn Lynch’s likely suspension could get Dick Jauron to shift focus to the air and a dual attack system of T.O. and Lee Evens, with help from Roscoe Parrish and Josh Reed, would provide enough balance to prevent T.O. from being completely swamped downfield. However, if he is swamped, T.O.’s presence will boost the fantasy values of his teammates by drawing coverage from other receivers and opening up rushing lanes. But what about his character issues? I don’t see too much trouble from T.O. during the 2009 season for a couple reasons. First, although T.O. has acquired a certain reputation, he has an uncanny ability to suppress the urge to cause drama for at least the first season with a new team. Second, T.O’s on his last legs in the NFL. Despite being a top receiver, T.O. is entering this season with his fourth NFL team in seven seasons and is doing so on a one-year contract. T.O. knows that for him to realistically expect a future in the NFL, he has to start chipping away at his “cancerous” reputation and become more of a team player.

But here’s the catch...T.O.’s fantasy production relies heavily on the quarterback and Trent Edwards is no Tony Romo. Edwards threw for just 11 touchdowns last year and was intercepted almost that same amount (10 times). But this is not on Edwards alone, the poor play of the offensive line resulted in a staggering 38 sacks against Edwards and Losman during the 2008 season. Unless the offensive line finds a way to give Edwards a decent shot at making plays, and Edwards takes advantage of this, T.O. won’t be able to produce at the rate he is capable of and we could witness a hissyfit of epic proportions.

My prediction: T.O.’s fantasy value will dip this year but not so far as to take him off your radar; look for T.O. to be a good no. 2 or no. 3 receiver. As for Trent Edwards, with a stronger receiving core, look for Edwards’ value to increase this year making him a good back-up or bye-week quarterback.

Matt Cassel to Kansas City

Though technically a trade, Cassel’s departure from New England not only created the biggest controversy of the free agency period, but also has widespread implications for fantasy owners.

Kansas City: Cassel won’t be setting the world on fire in Kansas City this year. Although coming off a good season, the fact of the matter is that he’s still unproven. I’m not implying that Cassel doesn’t have what it takes to be a good quarterback, but I doubt he could have done what he did last year if he wasn’t the backup for the Patriots. Cassel stepped into an almost ideal situation in New England, he was surrounded by playmakers and team leaders. However, Kansas City won’t come with such luxuries and I don’t expect great things from Cassel right away. Though you might be tempted by last year’s 3,693 yards and 21 touchdowns, stay away from Cassel this fantasy season.

Denver: Q. What’s the quickest way for an incoming head coach to alienate his 25 year-old, Pro-Bowl quarterback? A. Try to replace him with a relatively unproven one-year starter whose old team is practically him giving away.

The damage is done in Denver and Cutler wants out, but that might not be happening. If Cutler stays in Denver, I would be wary of relying on him to be my number one fantasy QB this season. Why? Because an unhappy quarterback is an unstable fantasy pick. Cutler may be a Pro-Bowl quarterback but he’s also demonstrated an inability (or just plain unwillingness ) to keep the personal and business aspects of the sport separate. Cutler not only feels tremendously slighted by McDaniels, but has no trust in his new coach; an element essential to success. Until Cutler is able to completely set aside the Cassel issue, or until he and McDaniels have a major breakthrough in couples therapy, Cutler’s production will vary from week to week depending on how happy or how comfortable he is with his role in the organization. In effect, as long as the Broncos are winning expect solid play from Cutler, but a few key losses can bring everything crashing down.

Baltimore Defense Unravels

The “organized chaos” that is the Baltimore defense became a bit less organized this offseason. In addition to losing coordinator Rex Ryan to the Jets, Baltimore also departed with key players in linebacker Bart Scott, safety Jim Leonhard, cornerback Corey Ivy and defensive back Chris Mcalister. While these losses sting, Ravens fans should be breathing a sigh of relief with the resigning of perennial Pro-Bowler and team leader, Ray Lewis. Though getting up there in age, Lewis, in addition to being one of the most dominant middle linebackers in the NFL, brings a certain swagger and confidence that has become part of the defense’s identity and source of morale. On top of resigning Lewis, the Ravens tried to offset their losses by picking up a pair of cornerbacks in Chris Carr and Domonique Foxworth. Although Foxworth comes to Baltimore unaccompanied by impressive stats or notoriety, he has been praised by Jim Harbaugh as “a top flight corner and a top-flight corner in the Ravens mold.” However, unless Foxworth has a tremendous season, this free agency period, in regards to fantasy value, has been a wash at best. Despite this, the Raven’s defense will not fall off much this season, if at all, and Baltimore will continue to be a top fantasy pick.

Albert Haynesworth to Washington

Coming to the Redskins, Haynesworth looks to add fire to a so-so fantasy defense. While solid NFL wise, the Redskins “D” amassed comparatively little fantasy points last season making them a less than desirable pickup. In order to increase their value, the Redskins need to go beyond limiting the points of their opponents and create scoring opportunities of their own; and this is just what they’ll get from of Haynesworth. Driven by a nasty temperament, Haynesworth led the Titans in sacks last year with 8.5, nearly double the amount of any other player, and racked up 51 tackles, 7 of them for a loss. Additionally, Haynesworth forced 3 fumbles, which doesn’t sound like much but tied for most on the team. This, in conjunction with his penchant for bullying quarterbacks into quick throws, should give the Redskins some of the scoring opportunities they need.

Outlook: With Haynesworth the Washington defense will rise in fantasy value this year, but it will take more than one player to make this defense starting material.

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