The Mulligan: Accenture Match Play Championship - Can Ogilvy Repeat?

Hello again all you PGA Tour fans. The 2010 season is picking up and The Mulligan is back to provide your weekly previews. If you play fantasy golf, if you are an avid PGA Tour nut wanting in depth analysis, or if you are just a casual golf fan looking for a preview of each week’s big tournament, The Mulligan has you covered.

If you read any of my articles last year, you’ll know that I usually give about 3-4 picks for each tournament along with a sleeper pick. I like to go out on a limb sometimes on my sleeper picks and I had some success doing so last year. So if you are looking for an unusual pick that not many experts are picking, you will enjoy my sleeper picks.

Most of the time I base my picks on several factors that I think are good predictors for success each week. First, I like to pick players with a history of success on a particular course. Some players are extremely effective on some courses and this can be a big advantage when the Tour visits a player’s favorite venue. Second, I look for players on hot streaks. Last year I picked many players during their big runs including Steve Stricker, Hunter Mahan and Brian Gay. Third, some courses shape up nicely for a certain type of game (accurate driving, long high driving, precise iron play, etc.). Fourth, if a course is near a player’s home town, I might give that player a little edge based on the added support from fans and possible familiarity with the course. Finally, sometimes a gut feeling is the tie breaker for close calls (especially with the sleepers).

So lets get 2010's predictions started. This week’s tournament is golf’s version of the NCAA Tournament; The Accenture Match Play Championship in Marana, Arizona. We all know that match play is a different animal than stroke play and some players excel at this format. I will break down the top four seeds and give you my pick for each bracket along with a couple of sleeper picks.

Sam Snead Bracket – (1) Jim Furyk, (2) Paul Casey, (3) Kenny Perry, (4) Sean O’Hair
My Pick – (2) Paul Casey. He had a great run in this tournament last year making it to the finals. I think this could be the start of a good year for Casey.

Gary Player Bracket – (1) Lee Westwood, (2) Henrik Stenson, (3) Geoff Ogilvy, (4) Ernie Els
My Pick – (3) Geoff Ogilvy and his 17-2 match play record are my pick to win the whole thing. He just seems to excel at match play, and if you followed The Mulligan last year you know how much I like his game.

Ben Hogan Bracket – (1) Martin Kaymer, (2) Rory McIlroy, (3) Robert Allenby, (4) Sergio Garcia
My Pick – (5) Lucas Glover. His US Open Championship last year is carrying over into this season and his confidence is very high right now. He had a top-10 at Torrey Pines last month and he is my pick in the Hogan Bracket despite his 0-2 match play record.

Bobby Jones Bracket – (1) Steve Stricker, (2) Padraig Harrington, (3) Ian Poulter, (4) Robert Karlsson
My Pick – (9) Mike Sim. This is the best young player in the game in my opinion. He was the Nationwide Tour money winner last year and he has a 2nd place finish on the PGA circuit already this year. Watch out for him this week and the rest of the season. He is legit.

Sleepers –
Zach Johnson. The always dangerous Johnson drew the 6 seed in the Sam Snead Bracket. He was put out by a hot Phil Mickelson in last years event and he has had a nice break to prepare for the course and the match play format. He could make some noise in this tournament.

Dustin Johnson. He drew the 11 seed but he should be much higher. Johnson is very hot right now coming off the Pro Am. I think he can take the 6 seed Villegas in the Gary Player Bracket and make a tournament run.

The Mulligan: Bring on the Fall

Tiger Woods took a $10 Million payday for winning the FedEx Cup last weekend, and now the Tour moves on to The Turning Stone Resort Championship at The Atunyote Golf Club. The course plays at over 7,500 yards so the long hitters should play well this week.

Dustin Johnson has been one of my favorite breakout stories this season, and I would like to see him get one more win to cap off the year. Johnson won this tournament last year, and he is a long hitter (3rd on Tour in Driving Distance) so I really like his chances this week. Johnson was not as effective during the last few weeks of the playoffs as he has been most of the season, but I think he will be back to the DJ we saw during the AT&T (where he won) and the PGA (where he finished in the Top 10).

I have said it before and I will say it again. Mike Sim is the best golfer you have never heard of. It is only a matter of time before he has a breakout tournament, and a I think this could be the week. Sim is an all around good player and he is finally on Tour with an exemption from winning 3 times on the Nationwide Tour.

Matt Goggin (aka The Tazmanian Devil) has finished in the top five at Turning Stone in 2 out of 2 starts. Why? Because he is a bomber and this course fits his game perfectly. He is ranked 27th on Tour in Total Driving and he hits the ball pretty far. His driving distance numbers have been down this season, and I am really not sure why. I have a feeling he will unleash the big dog this week and the Tazmanian Devil will be out in full force because he knows that chicks dig the long ball. Look for him to have a good week driving the ball, and a good week scoring.

Good luck this week and let's keep moving to the top of the fantasy golf rankings!

The Mulligan: The Tour Championship

We are down to the Final 30 as the Tour Championship is upon us. This week the Tour’s Top 30 players (based on FedEx Cup points) head to Atlanta, Georgia and East Lake Golf Club. The Par 70, 7,154 yard course was the home course of legendary Bobby Jones before recently being named the permanent home course of the Tour Championship. Let’s take a look at the 30 players who made the final cut and now seek the Championship. Next to each players name you will find the total amount of FedEx Cup points each player has.

Tiger Woods 2500
Steve Stricker 2250
Jim Furyk 2000
Zach Johnson 1800
Heath Slocum 1600
Padraig Harrington 1400
Sean O’Hair 1200
Scott Verplank 1000
Kenny Perry 800
Jason Dufner 00
Dustin Johnson 480
Nick Watney 460
Geoff Ogilvy 440
Phil Mickelson 420
Retief Goosen 400
Marc Leishman 380
Brian Gay 360
Kevin Na 340
David Toms 320
Lucas Glover 310
Y.E. Yang 300
Ernie Els 290
Hunter Mahan 280
Angel Cabrera 270
Steve Marino 260
Stewart Cink 250
Mike Weir 240
Luke Donald 230
Jerry Kelly 220
John Senden 210


All of the numbers involved in this scoring system bring up a common question. How does the scoring work for The Tour Championship? It is actually pretty straightforward. You simply take the point total of the players to this point in the season after the reset and add this total to the number of points earned this week at the championship. In other words, you take the number listed next to the player’s name above, and add that number to the amount of points earned this week, as listed below.

If you finish... Then you get...

1st 2,500 points

2nd 1,500 points

3rd 950 points

4th 675 points

5th 550 points

6th 500 points

7th 450 points

8th 425 points

9th 400 points
10th 375 points

11th 350 points

12th 325 points

13th 300 points

14th 285 points

15th 280 points

16th 275 points

17th 270 points

18th 265 points

19th 260 points

20th 255 points

21st 250 points

22nd 245 points

23rd 240 points

24th 235 points

25th 230 points

26th 225 points

27th 220 points

28th 215 points

29th 210 points

30th 205 points

This point structure results in some players controlling their own destiny while others need help. Basically, if Tiger Woods, Steve Stricker, Jim Furyk, Zach Johnson or Heath Slocum win this week, that player will be the Champion. These 5 players are the only players controlling their own destiny this week. Anyone else must have help in the form of Tiger Woods and the rest of the top seeds playing poorly. Obviously, the odds of winning decrease as you move down the rankings. If you want to check out the exact scenario’s of what must happen for your favorite player to win, click here.

Obviously the Top 5 players have a distinct advantage in terms of winning it all this week. Others are looking to challenge and move up the rankings even if it is highly unlikely for them to take home the main prize. Here are a few players that I expect to play well this week at East Lake.

Jim Furyk finished 2nd place two weeks ago at the BMW after a 5 under final round. He looked very sharp coming down the stretch with a 67 in round 3 and a 66 in round 4. and I think he is firing on all cylinders right now. He finished T-15 at the Barclays and T8 at the Deutsche Bank so his past three showings are impressive. Furyk ranks 3rd on Tour in scoring average, 17th in driving accuracy percentage and 20th in putting average. A well-rounded game and momentum make him a favorite this week.

Dustin Johnson has put on a good showing for his last four starts. Going way back to Early August at the WGC Bridgestone, Johnson finished T-22. He followed that up with a T-10 at the PGA, a T-15 at the Barclays a T-4 at the Deutsche Bank, and a T30 at the BMW. Johnson is a long hitter, ranking 3rd in driving distance on tour. He is also ranked 12th is putting average and 9th in eagles per hole. I like his chances this week to continue his hot streak.

Steve Stricker shot a 77 on Sunday at the BMW to finish T-53, but I still expect him to play well this week. Prior to this performance, he was the hottest player on Tour, finishing T-2 at the Barclays and winning the Deutsche Bank. I think the BMW was the result of an off day rather than anything that should raise a red flag. Stricker is still feeling it and he should play well again this week.

Padraig Harrington’s new swing looks better every day. Don’t take my word for it, look at his tournament performance. In his first 14 starts, Harrington failed to finish in the Top-10. In his last 5 starts, Harrington has finished in the Top-10 every time including two second place finishes. I expect his recent success to continue this week in Atlanta.

I hope you all have the opportunity to watch this weekend as the playoff season comes to an end. It should be an exciting week in golf.

The Mulligan: Stricker On Fire Heading Down The Stretch

The playoffs continue to heat up this week at the BMW Championship on revamped Cog Hill No. 4 in Lemont Illinois (just outside Chicago). With only one event left before the championship, many players are fighting to stay alive, while others have already punched their ticket to Atlanta. This is a long course with a few very tight fairways so players who have a well rounded game off the tee should play well this week.

I picked Steve Stricker last week. I am picking Steve Stricker this week. I will continue to pick him until he gives me a reason not to. Anyone who watched the Deutsche Bank Championship last week saw a man who is in control of his golf swing. He is taking dead aim at the pin on almost every shot and sticking the majority of them. I have never seen Stricker so confident and I think he will continue to roll. Look for him to build on last week's win.

Tiger Woods plays well everywhere, but he plays especially well in the Chicago area. He has won 33% of his starts in the area and finished in the Top 8 in 66% of his starts in the area. Even for Tiger that is pretty good. He is coming off of a superb 63 on Sunday and, again, its Tiger Woods. How can you bet against him?

I am going to go with Dustin Johnson this week as well. He has enjoyed a breakout year in 2009 and he continues to improve. Johnson finished 4th last week at the Deutsche Bank Championship and should bring solid momentum to this week's event. Johnson is making his first start at this event, so its hard to say how the course fits his game. That being said, he led the field in driving distance last week and that distance off the tee will prove very helpful this week.

Sleeper Pick: Mark Wilson is currently ranked 41st in Fex Ex Cup points and needs to jump 11 spots up into the Top-30 to make it to the Championship. I think he will do it with a solid performance this week. Wilson already has a win this season at The Mayakoba, and he finished 3rd at The Memorial. He has flown under the radar this year and has quietly put together a nice resume. Wilson is accurate (38th in Driving Accuracy) but not all that long (128th in Driving Distance). I still think Wilson is going to make some noise and make it into the Top 30 this week.

Good luck this week and let's keep moving to the top of the fantasy golf rankings!

The Mulligan: Back to Bethpage

Back in 2002 The US Open was played on a course that many players called the toughest course they have ever played. The course was long, the greens were fast, and the smallest of errors resulted in terrible consequences. That course was Bethpage Black. Bethpage is a public course in Southampton, New York, the first public course to ever host the US Open. Before teeing off on the Black Course, players are greeted by a warning sign, explaining that the course is recommended only for "highly skilled golfers."

The US Open is once again set to be played at Bethpage, but tournament officials have attempted to make the course a little more manageable for the players. The fairways will be a little wider, and some bunkers have been leveled off. Also, there are some new teeing grounds that may or may not help the players out. The forecast shows rain all weekend, so the greens may play softer and slower than usual. Even so, this course will likely be one of the toughest the Tour sees all year and the course is actually 200 yards longer this year than it was in 2002 when Tiger Woods was the only player to shoot under par for the Tournament. He shot 3 under, good enough for a 3 shot win over Phil Mickelson. and the field .

Tiger Woods looks to become the first player to win back to back US Opens since Curtis Strange did it back in 1988 at Brookline and 1989 at Oak Hill. We all remember Tiger's one legged defeat of Rocco Mediate in a Monday playoff last year at Torrey Pines. I watched it all day at work, making for a productive day.

Tiger will have some stiff competition. The field at the US Open is always loaded. Good players who know how to handle adversity should play well this week. Also, players who can hit the ball a long way should fare better than the short, accurate hitters. You can't play well at any US Open without a short game either, and mastery of the greens is a necessity this week. Players who have the combination of distance off the tee and a strong short game will play well at this years US Open.

First of all, I want to mention that I think Tiger Woods will win this week. He is playing great right now, and he is the greatest player to ever live. I will assume that you will all put him in your fantasy golf lineups without me saying anything else about it.

Next, Paul Casey is the perfect pick for this week. He his ranked in the Top-25 on Tour in driving distance, and 19th in greens in regulation. This is the perfect combination for Bethpage. Casey will be able to handle the slick putting surfaces, while still managing the 7,426 yard distance. Casey is also playing great golf this year. He is currently ranked 3rd in the world and has consistently competed in tournaments this year. In fact, Casey has finished in the Top-20 in six of his eight PGA Tour starts this season.

I like Geoff Ogilvy's chances this week as well. He played well 2 weeks ago at The Memorial (with the exception of hole number 14 on Sunday) and he already has 2 wins on Tour this year. Geoff has proven that he can win the big one under pressure against a tough field. He fended off Mickelson at the US Open at Winged Foot in 2006 to win his first major. His game fits this course perfectly as well, and he should play well this week.

Dustin Johnson has the game to compete this week. He is 3rd in driving distance and 26th in putting. He has a win this year and has found himself on many leaderboards in 2009. He has no strong finishes in majors, and really doesnt have a lot of big game experience. Some may find it suprising to pick him here, but he has the game for Bethpage and momentum is on his side.

SLEEPER PICK: There are so many big names in the field for the US Open that I really shouldn't pick a sleeper this week. But it is just too much fun. Besides, the US Open always has at least one no name at the top of the leaderboard at some point. I think the no name might come from the Nationwide Tour this year. Mike Sim has been tearing up the Nationwide Tour with two wins and six Top-10 finishes in nine starts. He is also first in putting average and total driving on the Nationwide Tour. He could turn some heads at Bethpage.

Good luck this week and lets keep moving to the top of the fantasy golf rankings!

The Mulligan: The March Madness of Golf

This week we have the pleasure of watching 5 days of head-to-head match play format. The Accenture Match Play Championship starts today and runs through Sunday. On top of that, Tiger Woods will be making his return after what seems like an eternity.

I have had several discussions and read several articles about how Tiger Woods will come out with a rusty swing and disappoint during this tournament. I beg to differ. Most of us don’t have the privilege of knowing the status of Tiger’s knee, or if he really is ready to come back. There are a few things that I am sure of, however, regarding the greatest player to ever live.

First, Tiger Woods is not the type of player to sit around playing Tiger Woods Golf on his Xbox 360. He is not the type of player to even think about allowing the competition to gain an edge on him. Tiger was unable to really swing a club normally for quite some time after his surgery, and many assume that he let his game atrophy. A more likely scenario is that Tiger was on the putting green, perfecting every detail of his game that didn’t strain his knee. This could mean that Tiger’s already ridiculous short game has significantly improved. This is a scary thought if you are Brendan Jones, Tiger’s first round opponent. Good luck Brendan, you are going to need it.

Second, Tiger missed only 1 fairway in his practice round on Tuesday. I think this fact alone defeats any arguments about a “rusty swing.” (On a side note, I once played a round of golf where I missed only 1 fairway. It was a Par 3 Course that had one par 4 at the end which was the only hole with a fairway).

Finally, Tiger has won 3 of these tournaments before (along with every other award known to man including the Nobel Golf Prize and Global Miniature Golf Championship). I mean come on. IT’S TIGER. Don’t bet against him.

Okay, so the way this tournament works is similar to the NCAA Tournament Bracket. You can view the matchups here. There are 4 small brackets and the winners of each bracket comprise the “Final Four.” Here are my picks in each bracket followed by my pick to win, which may be obvious by this point.

The Bobby Jones Bracket: Tiger Woods. There is tough competition here with Retief Goosen and Geoff Ogilvy. Rory McIlroy could be a sleeper in this bracket.

The Sam Snead Bracket: Henrik Stenson. He will have to get by a seasoned vet in Davis Love III in Round 1, and he has Padraig Harrington to worry about in later rounds.

The Ben Hogan Bracket: This is the bracket of the Johnsons. Take your pick between Zach or Dustin in this bracket although both have tough first round draws.

The Gary Player Bracket: Paul Casey. In this bracket lies my UPSET ALERT pick...Matt Goggin over Kenny Perry in the opening round.

The Winner: Tiger Woods - Your 2009 Accenture Match Play Champion

[Remember to check back each and every Wednesday at 1pm for another edition of "The Mulligan" - always packed with PGA tournament previews and fantasy golf picks you won't find anywhere else.]