Do's and Dont's of Fantasy Football Drafting

Unless you’re into drama, football news is slow this time of year. It’s a bit too early to be assessing what one assumes to be starting line-ups and the topic of draftee/trade impact has been beaten to death. So, what is there to talk about? Passing on the option to discuss Favre Farewill Tour 09’-’10, Ochocinco or McDaniels’ ability to repel star players, I thought this would be a good time to lay a few ground rules to drafting to consider as the fantasy football season approaches. While these may appear to be common-sense rules, I have seen far too many good friends fall victim to these mistakes ( accurate dramatization above) and decided that they must be stated:

Say NO to Rookies
Before I get slammed for this let me clarify, when I say “Say No to Rookies” what I mean is say no to rookies as your first pick per position (rookies are for second helpings, or thirds, and so on) Or, to state this plainly, unless your rookie pick comes with a personal guarantee on pain of death of superior production you better be taking a veteran first. Why? Because no matter how talented a player is, no matter how high the expectations, rookies will make cliché rookie mistakes that result in turnovers, lost yardage, injuries, etc. and you cannot predict how a particular player will react in this situation; some will grow from these mistakes, some will collapse under pressure and others will maintain, but you don’t know who will do what until it happens. Now I know what you’re thinking, you’re going through your mind finding exceptions to this rule such as Marshawn Lynch or Vince Young, but that’s the point, you have to search for exceptions and even then exceptions may still not beat out the production value of veterans in their positions. To help illustrate my point, here is a list of the first two players drafted to each position (first round only) and how they finished in fantasy points for their position in the respective year:

2006 Ranking
QB- Vince Young, Matt Leinart 9, 24
RB- Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney 17, 28
WR- Santonio Holmes, 40

2007
QB- JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn 62, 75
RB- Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch 32, 12
WR-Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn, Jr. 35, 76


2008
QB- Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco 15, 18
RB- Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart 45, 24
WR- no WR taken until the 2nd round

Don’t Be a Homer
One of the biggest mistakes people make in drafting is by overvaluing players from their favorite teams or taking them out of loyalty. Don’t be ashamed, we’ve all done it. Every time I pass over Roethlisberger for a better producing QB (fantasy wise) I feel a tinge of guilt. However you just have to realize that when it comes to fantasy football, picking a better producing player from a rival team is not cheating nor does it make you any less of a fan. (At least that’s what I tell myself) An important thing to remember in fantasy football is to be objective and look at building your team like you would an enterprise. If you choose players based on personal bias for a franchise, like a nepotant father you may find yourself working with some of your favorite players, but not necessarily those best suited to help you be the best in your league.

Do Not Build a Team Around One Player
Depending too heavily on one player is never a good idea. No matter how tried and true a player is he is always susceptible to injury. Overdependence arises in two different scenarios:
(1) Auction leagues - Spending an absurd amount of money on one player is incredibly risky and while it can have a tremendous payoff (Tom Brady-2007) it can also destroy your season completely (Tom Brady – 2008).
(2) All leagues – Drafting several players who rely on the play of one… i.e. nabbing two receivers from the same team or picking a QB-WR combo.

Take Into Consideration a Player’s Team
Even if you choose to ignore everything else I’ve written, please, for your own sake, take this last rule to heart for it is, what I consider to be, the Holy Grail of rules to fantasy football drafting. In evaluating a player it’s crucial that you look beyond the talent and accomplishments of that specific player and to several other factors which impact fantasy performance such as surrounding talent, team strategy and division/schedule. With respect to surrounding talent, this aspect is pretty straightforward: you can draft the most talented quarterback in the league, but if his offensive line is nonexistent, he won’t be picking up many points. Similarly, even if you have a good WR-QB pairing, if there isn’t a solid secondary receiver, chances are your star WR will be swamped downfield , forcing more dependence on the run game and limiting both your WR’s and QB’s fantasy value. Team strategy and consideration of division/schedule are intertwined and go towards evaluating whether the manner of play and types of opponents faced will allow your pick to maximize their value. For example, when drafting a RB you want to look at: (1) whether his team’s gameplan is traditionally run heavy, (2) whether the team runs a two back system and carries will be split pretty evenly and (3) division rivals (as well as other scheduled opponents) defensive strength against the run, among other things. Remember, having a RB who squares off against the Steelers and the Ravens twice a season will yield different results than if that same RB is division opponents of the Broncos and Chiefs.

O'Malley's Tallies: 2009 NFL Draft Winners and Losers

While the 2009 Draft may have lacked that sure fire #1 player like some years in the past, talent still remained abundant for those teams willing to take some chances and risks. With a good mix of both underclassmen and senior talent on the board, every team had the challenging task of trusting their hard work for months with scouting and interviewing and being able to weigh the importance of talent compared to character. With all that being said, here are the teams that I felt left Radio City Music Hall in New York City with both the best and worst draft classes from 2009…


BEST OF THE BEST

1. New York Giants – After many years of being an avid NFL Draft watcher, I don’t think I’ve ever liked one team’s draft class more than this year’s New York Giants class. In my opinion, every single selection made by GM Jerry Reese was a strong one and will make a valuable impact on the field in 2009. With the exception of Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree, UNC wide receiver and Giant’s first round pick Hakeem Nicks is without question the most NFL ready receiver in the draft and will be one of Eli Manning’s top targets with his big, physical frame and great hands. In the 2nd round, the team added another strong pass rusher (as if they didn’t already have enough!) to the mix by taking Virginia OLB Clint Sintim who registered an impressive 70 tackles and 11 sacks his senior year at Charlottesville. In the third round, Reese added some tight end depth by taking Wisconsin’s athletic Travis Beckum (will play a role similar to Redskin’s Chris Cooley at the next level) as well as another big receiver in Cal Poly’s Ramses Barden. Lacking the household name recognition coming from a 1-AA football program, I have always felt that Barden was flying way too under the radar coming into this draft and will be a definite red zone impact player for Big Blue in 2009.

• 4th round (129 overall): Andre Brown, RB (NC State)
• 5th round (151 overall): Rhett Bomar, QB (SHSU)


2. Cincinnati Bengals – Yes, I know it’s shocking to see the “Bungals” on a list that accentuates the positives rather than the negatives. However, as much as we all are quick to jump on them for what they usually do wrong on the field, it is very tough for me to do that this year after having such a successful 2009 draft class. With age and injuries quickly creeping up on the Bengal’s offensive line depth chart in 2008, the team was able to address that issue quickly by taking the highly touted Alabama LT Andre Smith 6th overall. While the naysayers will quickly try and point to Smith’s questionable work ethic and weight issues, there is simply too much talent and upside on film to not feel this is a great selection. In the 2nd round, the team found a great value selection in USC’s First Team All American linebacker Rey Maualuga. While Maualuga may not do any one thing exceptionally, he is still very good in many other areas and will be a great on field leader for the defense. In the 3rd round, the team selected perhaps the most risk/reward defensive player in the draft in Georgia Tech’s Michael Johnson. An elite pass rusher when he wanted to be at Georgia Tech, Johnson’s NFL outlook could land himself anywhere from a perennial All-Pro defensive end or a total bust that is out of the league in three years. While he may possess in the talent in the world, proper coaching will be a must each and every year in Cincy.

• 4th round (106 overall): Jonathan Luigs, C (Arkansas)


3. Philadelphia Eagles – If Donovan McNabb is not happy with the amount of playmakers on the Philadelphia Eagles in 2009, I don’t think he ever will be. With Kevin Curtis having an injury plagued 2008 and Reggie Brown looking more and more like a 1st round bust, the Birds were able to find themselves a steal at 19th overall in Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin. While some may consider Maclin more of a track star than a polished NFL ready receiver, it is really tough to ignore his game changing speed and ability and will give opposing defenses fits as a slot receiver, deep threat, and return man. In the 2nd round, the team was able to draft Brian Westbrook’s clone in Pittsburgh RB LeSean McCoy. McCoy was a major star at Pitt despite having poor talent around him on the offensive side of the ball and should be a great 3rd down and spell back for incumbent starter Westbrook. On the 2nd day, Eagles found themselves a possible replacement for tight end L.J. Smith (signed free agent deal in Baltimore) in Florida’s Cornelius Ingram. Despite missing all of 2008 with an injury, Ingram’s talent is tough to ignore and should be a major nightmare for linebackers in coverage if he can remain healthy.

• 5th round (157 overall): Victor “Macho” Harris, DB (Va. Tech)


Honorable Mention

4. Chicago Bears – Jarron Gilbert (DT - San Jose St), D.J. Moore (CB – Vanderbilt)

5. Green Bay Packers – B.J. Raji (DT – Boston College), Clay Matthews (LB, USC)


WHAT WERE THEY THINKING???

1. Oakland Raiders – I am going to keep this one short and sweet because I am truly lost for words on how bad this team did in the draft. With the best receiver in the entire country sitting there waiting for you to call his name (Michael Crabtree), how can you possibly justify taking Maryland’s Derius Heyward-Bey 7th overall!?!? While I will be the first to admit that Bey does indeed have long term potential at the next level, he is truly as raw as it gets as a route runner and was usually feast or famine on the stat line during his days at College Park. If Bey’s 4.3 forty time was the only thing that owner Al Davis cared about with that selection, why doesn’t he just go ahead and try to convince Jamaican track star Usain Bolt and his 9.69 second 100-meter dash to come to the Black Hole? This was just one of the many awful personnel decisions made by the incompetent Oakland Raiders in the 2009 draft…

2. Dallas Cowboys – After cutting your All Pro WR (Terrell Owens) as well as losing one of your impact defensive linemen to your division rival in free agency (Chris Canty), why in the world would you use your first few picks in the 2009 NFL Draft on a no name OLB from Western Illinois and a quarterback that threw for less than 600 yards last year?!?! That is exactly what the Dallas Cowboys did this year while the rest of the teams in their division snatched up talented players like Brian Orakpo and the aforementioned Hakeem Nicks and Jeremy Maclin. As if that wasn’t bad enough, the Boys’ then went on to draft a KICKER in the 5th round (already have the All-Pro talented Nick Folk on the roster) despite having a number of talented players in need positions still on the board. I know it is still very early in the year to tell, but it certainly appears as if it could be a long, soap opera like year down in Big D…

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – I am far from an NFL talent evaluator, but I really, really just don’t see it in Josh Freeman. Playing in the “defense is optional” Big 12 conference while at Kansas State, Josh Freeman wasn’t even one of the top 3 quarterbacks in his conference let alone a 1st round pick in the 2009 draft (more like a late 2nd early, early 3rd round pick to me). In addition, Tampa Bay already had 4 quarterbacks on their roster going into the draft including Byron Leftwich, a player with a lot of similar qualities to Freeman. While Freeman may have the long term potential to contribute later in his career, I just feel there were bigger needs for the Bucs with an aging Ronde Barber and defensive mainstays Derrick Brooks and Kevin Carter being released. Even after their selection of Freeman in the 1st round, there just wasn’t a selection made by the team the rest of the draft that seemed to catch my attention…


2009 Fantasy Impact Makers

1. Chris “Beanie Wells: RB, Arizona Cardinals – In 2009, Tim Hightower should get a taste of his own medicine from “Beanie” Wells after stealing many red zone scoring from Edgerrin James last season. This season, look for Wells to be very Brandon Jacobs like, being that bruiser opposing defenses get worn down by late in games and a possible candidate for double digit touchdown scores.

2. Knowshon Moreno: RB, Denver Broncos – As much as new Broncos Head Coach Josh McDaniels likes to chuck the pigskin all over the field, there is something about a talented Denver Broncos running back and their track records over the years that have to make a fantasy owner salivate. With perennial “game manager” Kyle Orton expected to be at the helm in 2009, Moreno and his big play potential will be crucial in making sure WR Brandon Marshall is not always doubled teamed on the outside and that the Broncos are able to stay balanced in their attack to the best of their ability.

3. Shonn Greene: RB, New York Jets – For those fantasy owners planning on making Thomas Jones their keeper selection in 2009 after his amazing 13 touchdown campaign, you may want to think again after Shonn Greene signs his contract with Gang Green. In 2008 as an Iowa Hawkeye, Shonn Greene took the nation by storm by rushing for 1,850 yards and 20 touchdowns on 307 carries. Listed at nearly 230 lbs., Greene can expect to take the majority of the goal line carries for head coach Rex Ryan and offensive Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.

4. Chase Coffman: TE, Cincinnati Bengals – After slipping nearly into the 4th round, I truly believe there will be a lot of teams regretting not selecting this very talented tight end out of the University of Missouri. Throughout his time in Columbia, Coffman was able to break the record for most catches by a tight end in their career with 247 (including 90 his senior season)! Once paired up with a healthy Carson Palmer, it would be far from a stretch to envision Coffman finishing the 2009 season as a top 10 fantasy tight end (similar to and if not better than the rookie impact of Seattle’s John Carlson in 2008).


Thank you all for reading as always and feel free to leave your comments for me!!

"O'Malley's Tallies" - - NFL Draft 2k8

Wow! Time really does fly. It seems like such a short time ago I was writing about last year’s weekly fantasy contributors and now the draft has already come and gone. As I am sure is the case with most of you, the weekend of the NFL Draft is something I look forward to every year. While you may be ready to pull your hair after ESPN beats the proverbial dead horse every year with wall to wall previews the week before, once the draft begins is when the excitement really begins. While this year may have lacked the top heavy star power of other years, the 2008 draft class was full of a number of talented collegiate athletes that will make an impact for their teams for years to come. With nothing is certain and the draft truly is a crap shoot sometimes, my edition of “OMalley’s Tallies” this week will focus on some of the teams I felt did the best and worst as well as some fantasy sleepers to keep an eye on going forward through training camp and into the regular season. Without further ado, here is my recap of this year’s draft…


CREAM OF THE CROP

1. Kansas City Chiefs – While I may be the FURTHEST thing from a Herman Edwards fan, after this weekend I must tip my hat to him and G.M. Carl Peterson for an outstanding job drafting. After ranking 28th in the NFL last year against the run, the Chiefs addressed a major need right away by grabbing the draft’s best run stuffer in LSU’s Glenn Dorsey. From there, the team went on to fill their other major need by grabbing offensive guard Brandon Albert from UVA. Out of all the picks in the 1st round, Albert was by far and away the best value pick in my opinion as he should help solidify an offensive line lacking a lot of talent and youth. In the 2nd round, the team struck gold again by selecting cornerback Brandon Flowers out of Virginia Tech. While Flowers may not possess the speed of Leodis McElvin or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, he is by far and away the draft’s most physical corner (could eventually benefit from a move to safety later in his career) and will make an immediate impact for the team on the other side of veteran Patrick Surtain. Here are some of the rest of the Chief’s great picks last weekend:



+ 3rd round (82 overall): DuJuan Morgan, Safety (NC State)
+ 4th round (106 overall): William Franklin, WR (Missouri)



2. Carolina – While many will question the team for not addressing the quarterback position, I look at the team’s draft as one that has seemed to fly under the radar as one of the league’s best. After losing Deshaun Foster to free agency, the team immediately replaced him with a physical athlete in Johnathon Stewart from Oregon. Along with D’Angelo Williams, this backfield will possess a lot of youth and that “thunder and lightning” quality that more and more teams strive to attain in today’s game. From there, the team did a great job just six picks later in acquiring University of Pittsburgh Offensive Tackle Jeff Otah who will help pave the way for the two young men mentioned in the preceding. Despite not having a 2nd round pick, the team still found their man in the 3rd round by selecting one of my favorites, CB/S Charles Godfrey out of Iowa. While they officially list him as a cornerback, Godfrey has a future at safety in my opinion and possesses that blue collar attitude that seems so prevalent from Hawkeye players. While I know this may be a big statement, but I see a lot of former Hawkeye Bob Sanders in Charles Godfrey and could eventually be a replacement for Panthers fan favorite Mike Minter.



+ 3rd round (74th overall): Dan Connor, LB (Penn State)
+ 5th round (141st overall): Gary Barnidge, TE (Louisville)



3. Tampa Bay – John Gruden and company hit the jackpot at pick #20 with one of my absolute favorite players in the draft Aqib Talib. Despite major character issues and questions about drug habits, Talib is by far one of the draft’s most athletically gifted athletes and will be in the running for Rookie Defensive MVP (You heard it here first..). His ability as a punt returner and also on occasion wide receiver at KU gives coach Gruden some additional weapons in his arsenal to use from time to time when needed. Did I mention how much I LOVE this pick???? Staying in line with the athleticism, the Bucs did a great job in the second round as well taking Dexter Jackson from 1-AA powerhouse Appalachian State. While he definitely lacks the size that most teams look for, Jackson is a game changer and can hit the “home run ball” at any time. With a good camp, look for Jackson to be a great slot option and take some pressure off aging veteran Joey Galloway. In the 3rd round, Rutger’s T/G Jeremy Zuttah was another great value pick that should compete for a starting job on Tampa’s line this year.



+ 5th round (160th overall): Josh Johnson, QB (San Diego)
+ 6th round (175th overall): Geno Hayes, LB (FSU)




WHAT WERE THEY THINKING!?!?

1. Tennesee – When your leading receiver from the previous year is a slow, possession receiver by the name of Justin Gage, you know it is time to get yourself a playmaker wide receiver for Vince Young. While they did get themselves a playmaker running back in Chris Johnson from ECU, the fact that they didn’t take a receiver until the late 4th round (Lavelle Hawkins, Cal) and instead took two defensive ends and a tight end (ANOTHER tight end drafted by the Titans!?!?) should really be disheartening to #10.



2. Chicago – “With the 14th overall pick in the 2008 draft, the Chicago Bears select University of Illinois and hometown hero running back Rashard Mendenhall!” Oh…wait…they took Chris Williams, offensive tackle from Vanderbilt. While I can’t knock Williams as a player, the selection to me was not the right one. Instead of taking Mendenhall and immediately getting themselves a playmaker to spell 1st round bust Cedric Benson, the team later reached heavily on RB Matt Forte out of Tulane in the early part of round two. With the exception of a good value pick in Craig Steltz in late 4th round, I was not a fan of what the Monsters of the Midway did on draft day.



3. Jacksonville – Why would you trade up to #8 overall and give up a number of picks in the process to take the most over hyped player in the draft in Derrick Harvey? Yea…I don’t know either. For a second round pick, they could have easily convinced a desperate Miami Dolphin team to trade them All World defensive end Jason Taylor and been that much closer to making that Super Bowl push that many scouts believe is right around the corner. Instead, they will have to deal with the growing pains and ups and downs of having two rookie defensive ends (Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves) instead of a former Defensive MVP.





SLEEPER FANTASY CONTRIBUTORS IN 2008:


1) Steve Slaton (RB, Houston Texans) – for anyone that regularly watched WVU football games the past few years like myself, it is evident what a playmaker Steve Slaton really is. While his numbers slipped his junior year due to some nagging injuries and the emergence of Noel Devine at WVU, Slaton can definitely still change a game on one play. When you add together Slaton’s playmaking ability and the wide open mess that is the Houston Texan’s backfield, this rookie 3rd rounder should have every opportunity to be a 1,000 yard back this season.

2) Dustin Keller (TE, New York Jets) – In round 2 of the draft, the Jets may have found themselves their first playmaker tight end in years. Missing on players Like Anthony Becht and Chris Baker over the years, Keller should finally be that athletic tight end in line with the Jason Witten and Jeremy Shockey’s of the world. Despite the presence of veteran Bubba Franks, Keller should get every opportunity to be the playmaker after Chris Baker is most likely cut in the coming weeks or months.

3) John David Booty (QB, Minnesota) – I know, I know. You must ALL think I am crazy for this one and I am well aware it is a major reach. However, the quarterback situation is far from settled in Minnesota with Tavaris Jackson, journeyman Gus Frerotte, and Brooks Bollinger on the roster. With that being said, Booty is used to playing against top competition coming from the Pac-10 and the Vikes West Coast offense should match up well for Booty. With Adrian Peterson in the backfield and newly signed Bernard Berrian aboard, would it really be that outlandish to think this 5th round pick has a shot to win the starting job? If he does, he could make for a serviceable QB2 in mixed leagues this coming season.

Others to consider: Limas Sweed (WR, Pittsburgh), Kevin Smith (RB, Detroit), John Carlson (TE, Seattle), Mario Manningham (WR, New York Giants)


Thanks for reading everyone! Feel free to send me your thoughts and opinions and I look forward to another season of football and “OMalley’s Tallies”!