Smiles and Frowns: The Trading Block

What's a guest column without a Bad Boys quote?

"Now back up, put the gun down and give me a packet of Tropical Fruit Bubblicious.”


OK, there were plenty of ways to introduce the same point, but the point remains: In the relatively-early-going, don’t be too eager to trade and accept less than fair value for your talent. So get your finger off the trigger, get a pack of gum, and think carefully about that trade offer. Trust the players with sustained success in the league.

In fact, before making any trade, ask yourself if you would advise your buddy to make the same deal (I acknowledge the suggestion makes this article sounds dangerously similar to a women’s magazine self-help column). I often find I am more critical of a friend’s trade than my own (closer now). I’ve even made offers before because I’ve simply been bored or wanted to shake-up the clubhouse. And the answer is yes, I’ve deluded myself into thinking that my fantasy baseball team has morale and chemistry.

Here are four more points about trading:

1. Most trades should involve players at different positions.
Otherwise, it’s suspicious and you’re not likely to close a deal. For example, if I’m offering you 35 year-old Jermaine Dye straight up for Nick Markakis, basically I’m telling you that I think Markakis is the better outfielder and/or that I think Jermaine Dye may break down like Travis Hafner (or, for an imperfect but more amusing analogy, break down like Oprah when she realized she was on the wrong side of 200 again).

An exception to that general rule concerning same-position trades would where, say, one team needs some speed and the other some power, and it’s a swap of Jacoby Ellsbury for Carlos Lee. That’s a reasonable deal and addresses both teams’ needs which, after all, is supposed to be the point. The underlying reason is that when the players are same position, it boils down to a completely linear evaluation—who is the better guy at this position? You’re likely to fare better in a mixed-deal where you can argue, or your league-mate may perceive that it’s worthwhile to trade a top-10 second basemen for a top-15 outfielder. There are more variables and more room to give less and get more.


2. Don’t make your best offer first, but don’t lose credibility.
While you know best who you’re dealing with, and that matters, the best practice is usually to toe the line between offering less than fair value, and fair value. I usually propose a trade that I would be glad to accept, but realistically expect that owner will counter. Also, when offering, have an idea of how you will be willing to tweak a deal to make it work. For example, on a team where I need a solid outfielder and a closer, and I’m deep with starting pitchers, I offer Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Wainwright for Carlos Beltran and Jonathan Broxton. I hope the owner will take it, but need to be prepared to up the ante and substitute a better pitcher to close the deal (but not a pitcher that would tip the balance the other way).

Now, the second part of this point is “don’t lose credibility.” This is important because when an owner comes out of the gate and targets a team with a weak second baseman and makes a ridiculous offer like Emilio Bonifacio and Paul Konerko for Albert Pujols, all credibility is lost. How can you take that owner seriously? That’s probably not someone who will give you fair value. That’s the type of guy that would _______ and not have the common decency to _______. Got it?


3. If your league-mates won’t give you fair value for a player, just keep him and don’t consider an opportunity to “sell high” lost.
I’ve been shopping Aaron Hill to a number of teams with weak second-basemen, but none of them believe. If you’ve got a player like Hill who is grossly exceeding pre-season expectations but can’t get fair value in return, just enjoy the run. Who knows how long it will last. Did any of us think that the goofy guy from Napoleon Dynamite would be able to turn that performance into a dozen mainstream roles? Who knew that George Foreman would make more money peddling grills than he would as a heavyweight boxer when people cared about boxing? How did this take a simple point turn into a ridiculous rant about grills? His name is Jon Heder, by the way.

4. Keep in mind the value of “name value.”
This point ties into the “fair value” idea. It’s common for players to get assigned a certain value based on name alone, i.e., Grady Sizemore. I’ve got nothing against Grady except that he’s one-week my junior, millions richer and doesn’t have a beer gut, but I think his stock has become inflated because of his “name value.”


People like to say they have Sizemore on their team, and so owners might be willing to pay more to acquire Sizemore than he’s worth. I don’t mean to diminish that he’s a 30-30 guy right now, but in a vacuum will he really prove that much more valuable than Jason Bay by season’s end? If you have Sizemore or someone like him, use the name value to your advantage in a trade.


Two examples of the converse: Vlad Guerrero and Ichiro. Their name value is declining. I think Vlad’s much more so than Ichiro's at this point, but they’re both declining and the window to cash in on their name value might be closing too. I think it’s safe to say that both of their best days are in the past. Much of Ichiro’s value was his speed and, well, he’s slowing down (caught stealing 4x already this year—4 times all of last year). Vlad is at least two years older than we thought he was last year, and he’s becoming a fixture on the DL. Still, there’s always an owner that would rather slot Vlad in the roster over miscellaneous OF with the same numbers.

Now consider the folks who drafted Raul Ibanez. They probably expected a good second or third outfielder. They got better. Ibanez’s power is hardly a surprise, but he’s sporting a .343 average and 17 homers already. Impressive. How about Adam Jones? He’s already got 10 homers, 40 runs, 36 RBI and a .360 average to his credit. And Johnny Damon? In my view he’s been slightly undervalued for a few seasons. Damon’s already got 10 homers and five steals. It was a short porch in right field at the old Yankee Stadium to begin with and now balls are flying out of the new one. I don’t think it’s unrealistic to expect a career high for homers (he hit 24 with the Yanks in 2006). The point here is, these players for whatever reason don’t currently have and may never have a lot of name-value. And that’s ok. Just don’t trade them for less than they’re actually worth.


Having said all of that, go rip someone off. If all else fails, just get some Skittles.

Not happy with a recent trade in your fantasy league? Head over to SportsJudge.com and our team of lawyers will handle all of your fantasy baseball dispute resolution needs. SportsJudge - Solving Real Fantasy Disputes Since 2001.

Smiles & Frowns: The Fantasy Baseball Oscars, Part II

If you have not done so already, please check out the first five awards here.

In the final five awards, I have again bestowed upon each player an award named after a particular actor, linking the two based on their respective career-arcs, status and reputation. Please refer this quasi-guide as a reference for your draft. Or, just read it. You might find a nugget or two of actual, real information in here somewhere. Here are the awards:

6. Carlos Zambrano (SP, Cubs)--The "Russell Crowe" Award for the Undeniably Talented But Highly Volatile and Somewhat Self-Destructive Player”

I don’t read Perez Hilton or People Magazine, nor do I watch E! programming, but from what I’ve heard, Russell Crowe is pretty hot-tempered and somewhat difficult to work with. After all, he was charged with assault and criminal possession of a weapon a few years ago. But heck, he’s the Gladiator!

In the baseball world, Crowe’s counterpart is Carlos Zambrano. Just last year, Zambrano got in a fistfight with his own catcher, Michael Barrett; Barrett was subsequently traded to the Padres. How convenient! Zambrano displays his emotions and a variety of histrionics on the mound, and say what you want, but he’s fun to watch. As Crowe once said, “Are you not entertained!!??”

Big Z’s fire is part of what makes him so competitive, but when he gets rattled his control totally unravels. When he’s good, he is good, and when he’s bad, he’s gross. Over a five game stretch in April and May of last season, Zambrano earned a loss in each game, giving up four, five, six, seven and eight runs in those five outings. Then, he went on to win nine of his next 12 starts, giving up two earned runs or fewer in all but one start where he allowed only three. Hot and cold, and that’s a tough sell in head-to-head.

The bottom line: he’s kind of a wild card. I’m going to let someone else pick him and ride the rollercoaster. The safer bet is from owners in rotisserie leagues where his inconsistencies will stabilize over a season and won’t cause an ERA implosion in any single week.

Runner Up: Milton Bradley
Almost named the Award after: Colin Ferrell, Steven Seagal


7. Jason Bay (OF, Pirates) – The "Justin Long Award for the Guy They Tried To Sell You In A Leading Role, But Only Has Supporting-Talent”

Who is Justin Long? Trust me, you’ve seen a film with him before. He’s a regular-looking guy, and you probably knew someone in high school that looked just like him.

Someone in Hollywood tried to make Justin Long a lead guy by casting him as the lead in Accepted on the heels of his performance in Dodgeball. That someone failed. What do you expect when you name the lead character Bartleby?

Last year, if you drafted Bay to lead your outfield, you were sorely disappointed. Many of you, including myself, are still disappointed. Bay came off a couple solid but not spectacular campaigns with 32 and 35 homers, 100+ RBI and 100+ runs, a respectable batting average, and then he fell on his face last year. It’s one thing when a top pick gets injured, like Derrek Lee in 2006 or Chris Carpenter in 2007 where you deal with it and move on, but Bay’s lack of production systematically drained owners.

Bay has probably fallen in most standard drafts to the seventh or eight round this year, one year after he was a third-round pick. That’s one of the most drastic falls from the top I’ve ever seen from a player that’s still relatively young (only 29) who hasn’t suffered a career-threatening injury.

In fairness, Bay really doesn’t deserve this award. He had a painful bout of knee tendonitis last year and played through it. But I just wanted to point out that there comes a point when you either need to bench a guy, or get the best value you can in a trade. There’s a difference between panic and stubbornness. Don’t be too stubborn to bench a guy just because he was your third-round draft pick. The numbers usually don’t lie.

Oh yeah, Justin Long is the Macintosh guy too.

8. Tim Lincecum (SP, Giants)-- The "Christopher ‘McLovin’ Mintz-Plasse Award for Outstanding Performance By An Extremely Skinny Guy That Just Burst Onto The Scene”

I’m going to refer to Mintz-Plasse as McLovin because it’s much funnier, and much easier to type. McLovin landed his big-time role after trying out on a whim. His previous acting experience included…nothing. Apparently he had just taken drama classes. Anyhow, he nailed the role of Fogell (or McLovin) in the best comedy of the year, Superbad. The kid is pale, rail-thin and simply doesn’t look like a Hollywood actor.


Similarly, Tim Lincecum, a Gumby-like hurler with a peculiar windup burst onto the scene armed with a dominating mid-nineties fastball (Admittedly, there was a ton of hype for the prospect, but cut me some slack with this connection). Lincecum looks like he’s about 17 years old—maybe—perhaps using his teenage appearance to coax strikeouts because of the whole “is this guy really throwing 96 mile-per-hour fastballs?” element. It looks like Lincecum twists his body and whips the ball out like a tetherball unraveling from a pole.

Take away three 6+ run implosions in June last year, his second month in the bigs, and Lincecum’s ERA drops to somewhere in the mid to low threes in the other 21 starts. At 23 years old, the only thing that really concerns me is his control; he lost the strike zone in several outings and seemed to have trouble finding it again. In Lincecum’s final 15 games of the season, he surrendered more than three runs only once. All that and you know it’s always fun to have a physical anomaly on your team, so enjoy the 5’ 11” wonder listed at 170 pounds if the price is right.


9. Chone Figgins (3B/OF, Angels)– Winner of the “Joaquin Phoenix Award for the Guy Who’s Value is Somewhat Inflated Because of an Uncommon, Unique Name.”

This one begins here: Joaquin Phoenix is a solid actor, and Chone Figgins is a solid baseball player. The issue is whether they would be as popular if not for their interesting names.

Phoenix by itself is a cool last name. It’s a major United States city, it has historical significance from Ancient Greece, and it’s actually quite pleasing to the eye to look at. As for Joaquin, that just takes things to a whole different level. I have no idea what language Joaquin originates from, nor do I know anyone named Joaquin, or anyone who knows someone named Joaquin. Has he gotten more roles as a result? Maybe. More fame? Possibly. More anything else? I’ll stop there.

As for Chone Figgins, it’s a similar story. Figgins is just hands down a cool last name. It’s exciting. It’s different. Part of the name is a fruit and, when you add the alternate spelling of Sean or Shaun to the equation, it’s dynamite.

But here’s the thing: I think the answer to the above question is probably not. There’s an inherent bias towards people with cool names. We gravitate towards them. What’s more marketable: Ramon Antonio Gerard Estevez, or Martin Sheen? You get it. Having said that, look closer at the numbers before letting the Figgins bias cut against you during the draft, or during the season.

Figgins has hit 25 homers in 2500 career at-bats; he’s averaged about 60 RBI in each of his season as a starter; he has about a .290 career batting average (last year’s .330 looks like an anomaly in an injury-shortened season); and he’s stolen 189 bags over the last four seasons, including 41 last year in only 115 games. He is what we thought he is!!!—a base stealer with a good average that scores a healthy amount of runs.

Are his stolen base, run totals and batting average enough to offset the lack of power? It depends whether your team is built to sustain that lack of power production. Look for players that are balanced across the board or, simply make sure you balance the roster; if you draft a guy like Figgins, look to nab Adam Dunn too.

10. Manny Ramirez (OF, Red Sox)—Winner of the “Matthew McConaughey Award for the Extremely Talented Guy That Lives On His Own Planet And Seems To Be Very Content There”

Pause.


This one is almost too easy.

Manny has his own media-donned phrase—Manny Being Manny—a theory that attempts to explain the unexplainable—Manny Ramirez’s behavior. Everyone has at least one friend (or foe) that can only be described by using that person’s own name to explain him. Ramirez is the baseball’s version of that guy. For that matter, he’s everyone’s version of that guy. He floats around in a perpetual malaise and seems to be disinterested in baseball most of the time. And when he’s not disinterested, he hits home runs and admires the moon-shots. He looks like a mess. What would Manny do for a living if he weren’t a professional baseball player? What was the first thing that came to mind? Exactly.

Apparently, Matthew McConaughey does not use deodorant and instead takes several showers a day because it’s more natural, and because his natural scent is more desirable. This actually became a problem on the set of Fool’s Gold with Kate Hudson. There are videos all over the Internet of McConaughey dancing, singing and generally being…himself. McConaughey was just a regular guy who seemed to fall into his talent and made a career out of it. Is Manny any different?

Both of these guys have produced a number of solid performances in their respective professions (McConaughey in A Time To Kill, The Wedding Planner, Edtv, Failure to Launch…actually, nevermind), and motivation notwithstanding, they should continue to produce for at least a little while longer. We need more of these guys in the world. So if you draft Manny, don’t say you didn’t know what you were getting: a power hitter that will mash the ball when he’s not too tired or bored.

Smiles & Frowns: The Fantasy Baseball Oscars, Part I

You’ve seen the rankings, looked at last year’s stats, and maybe even picked up a magazine, or two. But, you haven’t read this kind of bizarre analysis: I’m going to hand out some awards in an “Oscar” themed style, to highlight some of the fantasy-baseball cautionary tales and discuss some drafting principles to keep in mind. You can’t draft your team without this guide!

I decided to do this partly because I wanted to do something Oscar-themed, and mostly because I didn’t want to write something duplicative of my colleagues’ work. As you will see, I have bestowed upon each player an award named after a particular actor, linking the two based on their respective career-arcs, status and reputation.

1. John Lackey (SP, Angels) – Winner of the "Philip Seymour Hoffman Award for the Underappreciated and Not Very Good Looking Guy That Quietly Leads Your Team.”

On my watch, Hoffman is one of the most talented, consistent and versatile actors in Hollywood. Hoffman delivers every time. He was outstanding in some of his earlier and supporting roles in The Big Lebowski, Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and really came into his own in 25th Hour, Mission Impossible III and of course, his Oscar Winning performance in Capote.

Lackey has been one of the most consistent and productive pitchers in baseball for the past three years; he’s made 33 starts in each of the past three seasons, throwing over 200 innings in each of those seasons with 179, 190 and 199 strikeouts. He also recorded 46 wins over that span. Bottom line: this guy is going to put in a lot of innings for you, week after week. And he’s consistent each time out, too. Lackey only gave up four or greater earned runs six times in his 33 starts last season. So, he might hurt you once every 5-6 times out, but even when he does get knocked he usually goes six innings into the game so the damage is minimized. His K/BB (strikeout to walk ratio)—an under-appreciated statistic in my opinion—was 3.44 last year, indicative of excellent control. I can’t understate the value of a guy that not only strikes people out, but also doesn’t allow freebies to the base path.

The other, obvious connection, of course—neither of these guys are particularly good looking. But damn, are they good at their craft. And yes, Lackey doesn’t have the Cy Young to match Hoffman’s Oscar for Best Actor, but Lackey has finally earned recognition as one of the most consistent and dominant pitchers in the American League.

2. Carlos Lee (OF, Astros) Winner of the “Samuel L. Jackson Award for Bona-Fide Bad-Ass That Has Never Garnered Major Accolades But Consistently Dominates”

Samuel L. Jackson is awesome. He just is. As an actor, he’s exciting, intimidating, intelligent and often hysterical. I have yet to see a Jackson movie I didn’t enjoy. Not to say he hasn’t been in some poor movies (The Man), but you can always take a smile away from Jackson’s role.

Carlos Lee, similarly, is awesome. He’s smacked between 31 and 37 homers over the last five years, with at least 99 RBI each season over that span. You can buy that kind of consistency--by drafting Carlos Lee!!! The great thing is, he’ll probably come a bit cheaper than some of the “sexier” picks this year in Curtis Granderson (maybe) or Magglio Ordonez (maybe). Lee simply doesn’t slump, and in head-to-head leagues, consistency is key. Yes, a monster week from one player is often enough to make a mediocre week a winner, but consistent producers like Lee, and like Samuel L., will anchor your cast of characters throughout a season.

3. Carlos Delgado (1B, Mets) Winner of the “Jim Carrey Award for Former Standout Making a Steadily Dramatic Decline”

Like Delgado, Jim Carrey has had a stellar career, topping out (so far) in about 2003. That’s about the time Carrey made the box-office hit Bruce Almighty and the critically acclaimed Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (I’ve always wanted to say ‘critically acclaimed’—what a fluffy phrase). Since then, Carrey has fallen off the map taking on roles in only Fun with Dick and Jane, Lemony Snicket and The Number 23. None of them were very good. Actually, Dick and Jane and 23 were terrible; I didn’t see the other.

Delgado has been a major disappointment recently too. How do you manage only 87 RBI batting cleanup in the Mets lineup in 2007? You swing at all the same pitches Carlos Delgado did last year. He looked terrible and it was painful for all the owners that had him to watch him crank out 0-fers on consecutive nights. He’s an injury risk with wrist and elbow issues and he’s and playing in a pitcher’s park. Bottom line: despite a prime spot in a powerful lineup, you don’t want to rely on Delgado as a starting 1B.


4. Todd Jones (RP, Tigers)–- Winner of the "Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson Award for The Guy That Isn’t Unbelievably Talented But Gets a Surprising Amount of Work Despite It”

In his film roles, The Rock has played essentially the same character each time out: he’s the enthusiastic, strong, one-liner dropping bullish dude. He’s good at it. I’m just amazed how many films have been made centered around that character, and how he’s continued to find new films that will feature him in that role. For example, The Game Plan, Gridiron Gang, The Rundown and The Scorpion King. Is anyone willing to tell me that The Rock is actually a good actor? Because he’s not. He’s found his niche, and he’s done an excellent job marketing himself.

His baseball counterpart is Todd Jones, who has redefined job security as a closer. Jones is a closer that sports a high-80s to low 90 mile-per-hour fastball with a little bit of movement, and doesn’t really strike anyone out. At 40 years old, he’s just not your prototypical closer. He gives up a lot of hits and seems to make it interesting almost every time. Now with the addition of Miguel Cabrera, this Tigers team should create even more save-opportunities for Jones. With flame-throwing reliever Zumaya recovering from injury, the inconsistency of set-up guy Fernando Rodney, and Leyland’s unwavering support, Jones will continue to get a steady amount of work—just like The Rock.

Call them both very opportunistic, and draft accordingly: you can probably get Jones in the 14th round and possibly beyond, and he’ll be worth the pick.

Note 1: Jones did have an excellent second half last season, with a 2.88 ERA and 16 saves in 18 chances.

Note 2: How can you not love a guy with a handle-bar mustache? I mean, really.

5. Derek Jeter (SS, Yankees) —Winner of the “Ben Affleck Award for Guy Whose Name Value Will Probably Exceed What It Costs To Get Him”

Let me qualify this award by saying that it is given to Jeter based solely on his production from a fantasy perspective, not accounting for the other intangibles he brings as a “clutch” hitter or as a leader. Having said that, I think he is going to get drafted higher than his production will warrant this season, and thus, many owners may “overpay” for him.

Similarly, I really don’t think Affleck is an outstanding actor. No doubt he’s a good actor, writer and has some solid credits as a producer, but he’s gotten some monster paychecks for some average performances in mediocre (and terrible) movies. Look at the salaries for these movies:

Jersey Girl (2004) $10,000,000
Paycheck (2003) $15,000,000
Gigli (2003) $12,500,000
Daredevil (2003) $11,500,000
The Sum of All Fears (2002) $12,500,000

Thus, I think the people and owners writing big paychecks for these two aren’t getting their money’s worth. With the exception of 2003, Jeter has played in at least 149 games every season since 1996, and shortstop is a taxing position to play. How much longer can he possibly play at a high level? Jeter will always stabilize a team in batting average and score a lot of runs, but his power is waning, the ceiling for RBI is in the 70’s, and I think he is going to attempt to steal fewer bags going forward (not exactly a Nostradamus-like prediction, but it’s part of the equation here). In 2007, he attempted to steal 23 bags and was caught eight times.

Now, take a look at Michael Young last season: Young had about 20 fewer runs and about 20 more RBI—sort of a push there; Jeter had three more home runs, two more stolen bases, and batted .322 to Young’s .315. Also consider that Young was batting .257 through the first two months of the 2007 season. Yet, Young is projected to come off the board about four rounds after Jeter.

The answer, I think—name appeal. Owners like saying that they’ve got Jeter. Don’t throw 12.5M at Affleck for a chick-flick, and don’t spend a second or third rounder on Jeter when you can get a guy like Young in the 7th.

Part II coming Wednesday. Enjoy the show!

Smiles & Frowns: Highs and The Lasting High From An Unforgettable Super Bowl

I used to think that Sports Illustrated and NFL Films Super Bowl Championship videos were a total sham. Well, not anymore. Definitely, not anymore.

I want the video, the authentic signed ball, the hat, the sweatshirt, the boxers, the toilet paper—just about anything Super Bowl XLII Champions. I would bathe myself in Super Bowl Champion soap if they made it. Of course they don’t make that and I can’t afford any of the rest, so I bought several copies of the New York Post and the Daily News instead. My father started that tradition when my brother and I were kids—a copy of the Post for every New York sports triumph. There’s a collection somewhere in our basement, and the one that reads “Super Men” will go right on top.

It’s amazing how the thrill of a Super Bowl Championship can affect someone. When things have gone a little bit wrong for me lately, it just hasn’t mattered as much: the lady at Dunkin Donuts spread cream cheese on only one side of my bagel, my neighbor took the good parking spot; the cream cheese spilled all over me, and my pants got wet when I forgot to shake before I left a public bathroom yesterday. But the Giants won Super Bowl XLII, so none of that really matters much right now. Not while the thrill is still sinking in.

And it’s still sinking in. It happened to our team.

Some other thoughts and highlights from the Super Bowl and the weekend:

1. One of my buddies, a huge Giants fan, was fortunate enough to be out in Arizona for the game. Even more fortunate got him into the Maxim party out there, where he saw McLovin. McLovin!!! Talk about a whirlwind for that kid: he went from pale, scrawny high school kid to a pale, scrawny high school kid with an amazing one-name nickname taken from a fake-ID in one of the highest-grossing comedies in Hollywood last year. And now random dudes are calling other random dudes across the nation to tell them that they saw him. McLovin!!!

2. A transcript of the message from my brother on Thursday, January 31, three days before the Super Bowl: “Dude, I just had a good omen: it’s three P.M. on Thursday, I’m driving around in downtown Norfolk...I see a homeless guy, smoking a cigarette, wearing a Dave Meggett jersey… I can’t even make this up… It was fantastic…a Giants Dave Meggett jersey, not the **** Patriots one… it’s a sign dude…it’s a sign… I tried taking a picture and almost crashed my car.”

Honestly, we both took it as a good sign. For those that aren’t familiar with Dave Meggett, he was an all-purpose, third down, special teams type guy who played for the Giants from 1989-94, and then for the Patriots from 1995-97. He was one of those beloved, blue collared Giants that won the hearts of corporate executives and homeless guys alike.

3. I should have known something special would happen on the Giants last drive. Just before it started, I received a text message from a female friend that has very little interest in professional sports, and even less understanding of them. The one word message read, “Football!!!” It was the first Super Bowl she had ever watched. Bless you, Kim.

4. Karma: Why tempt fate? The Patriots, supporters and businesses looking to cash in on history had a role in the Pats demise. I’m not so much concerned here with the Mayor of Boston planning for the event of a victory parade, or Patriots owner Robert Kraft filing to trademark the phrase “19-0”, but with some choice comments made by Richard Seymour to Amani Toomer and Brandon Jacobs before the Giants game winning drive. ESPN’s Jeffrey Chadiha reported that Seymour told them that they "should be ready to go home.”

Now, I WISH I could hear just some of the trash-talking and outlandish remarks that go on at the line of scrimmage and after each play, because I am sure they are hysterical, and I imagine that Seymour’s comment is no more grandiose than the average. However, if you believe he said that, at that point in the ball game, and meant it—it goes to show you that even until the very end the Patriots did not take the Giants seriously, not even after 57 minutes of a championship game where the Patriots simply did not match the intensity of their underdog opponent. So why tempt fate? Who knows. I don’t know if the Patriots believed they could lose the Super Bowl. I’m sure the team is comprised mostly of hardworking, unselfish athletes, but as a team they exuded an overwhelming amount of arrogance. That’s arrogance, rather than confidence. And that’s part of where I think they went wrong.

5. Joe Buck’s call on the Tyree catch was terrible. One of my favorite columnists, Bill Simmons, addressed this issue with equal disappointment in his recent mailbag. I have to say something too. I have watched the clip over and over and over, and each time I keep thinking that 1) Tyree will drop the ball, or Harrison will pull it away, and 2) Joe Buck will actually get excited or show a modicum of emotion. It just baffles me. Someone without sight listening to Buck’s call in real time would have had absolutely no idea how outrageous that play was, both at the spot of the catch and at the line of scrimmage where Manning escaped. Football fans, not just Giant fans, have cause to be outraged. Buck averaged an audience of 100-something million people and the best he could do for that play was, “[Manning] airs it out down the field…it is caught by Tyree…inside the 25 and a timeout is taken.” Thanks, Joe.

Giants fans can enjoy this one, though, a clip taken by a fan from behind the end-zone of Burress’ game winning touchdown:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=RR_XQppEyYA&feature=related

Six months until football season. I’ll be back soon with thoughts on baseball.

Smiles & Frowns: Super Bowl XLII, The Giants, Pop Culture, and Some Videos & Links

My post-fantasy football season hiatus is over. There is simply too much to talk about right now. I need to get it off my chest. And…go!

The Super Bowl and Some Miscellany:

First of all, the pundits predict that this Super Bowl will garner the highest ratings ever. As far as Super Bowl match-ups and expectations go, there will always be detractors, whiners and critics—and that’s fine—but what’s not to like this time around? Admittedly I’m biased (totally and completely—I’m a die-hard Giants fan), but how about this for objectivity:

This game offers your classic underdog team, the ultimate road warrior Giants: an NFL-record ten straight road wins for the Giants, with three of those road wins occurring in the post-season. In the first game the Giants exercised the demon of Jeff Garcia (more on that later), who beat them in the post-season twice before, with separate teams (Eagles and Niners).

The Giants path included a victory at number-one seeded division-rival Dallas, in a game that happened to be the first post-season meeting between the Giants and Cowboys, ever (really).

On top of that, the Giants pulled off a road win at Lambeau Field, with the winning kick coming in overtime off the foot of Lawrence Tynes from 47 yards out in sub-zero conditions, following an interception by the beloved Brett Favre on only the second play in overtime, when he had missed two shorter field goals in the game already.





















Check out these fan celebrations:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=oXAKC0_4V_I

http://youtube.com/watch?v=139ZdOrMvD0

Meanwhile, in the moments leading up to the kick, every legitimate Giants fan was thinking, “Oh no!!! This is Feely at Seattle all over again!” (more on that later). Then a very personable Tynes went on Late Night with David Letterman to discuss the kick. Appearances like this usually take place after a championship:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSr5F9ut2Vc

Even more comical, Eddie Murphy of all people actually predicted the outcome of the Giants-Packers game almost twenty years earlier. Check that out:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=8dXkZbVkeAU

And your Goliath: I don’t need to recite the significance of this game to NFL history and the New England Patriots. The whole “boot” saga and secrecy just compounds it all as New England tries to take another step towards the Niners-Cowboys-Steelers Fist-Full of Super Bowl Rings Club. If the Patriots don’t win this game, despite the enormous accomplishment of becoming the first 16-0 team in the regular season, they will become the ultimate incomplete “yeah…but” team. Speaking of incomplete, this is funny:

http://www.craigslist.org/about/best/aus/192659778.html

Any conversation about the Patriots regular season feat would include a mention of the Super Bowl loss. True, a real championship team is driven by the desire to succeed rather than the fear of defeat, but, you know.

Adding another level of intrigue, these teams met in the final game of the regular season, when the game meant absolutely nothing (statistically) to the Giants, and everything—statistically, emotionally and historically—to the Patriots. And you know what happened: the Giants took them to the brink, tagging them for 35 points. Three Giants starters were injured in that game, by the way (Center Shaun O’Hara, DB Sam Madison and LB Kawika Mitchell. The first two missed the first game of the post-season). However, the Pats entered the week as two touchdown favorites.

And yes, this is a quasi New York-Boston match-up. Would you have rather heard about Brett Favre for an entire week? Really? How about a Jaguars-Bucs Super Bowl? You have to admit, unless you’re a Cowboys, Packers, Buccaneers, Redskins or Seahawks fan, this is a pretty cool match-up.

On a hysterical and totally unrelated note (And I wanted a British kid before I saw this video):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OBlgSz8sSM

Almost as cool as this kid: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fVDGu82FeQ.

In other news, Terrell Owens is Rod Tidwell. Yes, Rod Tidwell from Jerry Maguire, the “Ambassador of Kwan.” Hopefully you have seen the clip of T.O. from the press conference following the loss to the Giants. If not, let me fill you in and provide the link: an emotional Owens wears sunglasses to cover his tears and chokes up when he comes to the defense of “his quarterback”, Tony Romo.

I may not have written it first, but I shouted it excitedly as the conference aired live, “HE’S ROD TIDWELL!!! THE AMBASSADOR OF KWAN!!! T.O is Rod Tidwell!!! Thanks to the guy who posted the video:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=GVVfsSCrb14

Now that leads me to my next point: I think it’s a safe bet that T.O is like the emotional dude in every group of guys. You know, the guy that gets really sappy and emotional every time he gets drunk and won’t stop hugging you and telling you you’re a great friend. Then when he sobers up the next morning he can’t really remember what happened (or so he claims). That video is easily my favorite T.O. moment ever.

An Unabashed Discussion About the Giants:

This is a different Giants team, and it feels amazing. I’m slowly weaning myself from the “Oh my Lord, the Giants are really in the Super Bowl” phase. And what’s really great, this isn’t a “happy to be there” Giants team. No, they aren’t. This is a team reeling with confidence. This team is like your friend that spent the last few years constantly dating this crazy chick, then finally broke up with her and since then has been seen with a string of very attractive girls. He’s on fire, and though you’ve known this friend forever, you still have a hard time believing what he’s accomplishing. There’s no stopping him, and there’s no convincing him that anyone is “out of his league.”

This is a team that believes in its quarterback, Eli Manning. They’ve accepted him for what he is: a sound, mostly emotionless quarterback that looks like a ninth-grader that woke up and wants only five more minutes of sleep. He isn’t “unstoppable” as the people at Citizen’s Watch would have you believe.




And Eli really isn’t a “leader.” Not in any traditional sense or otherwise. Really, he doesn’t even need to be. He just needs his players’ trust, and to be himself. It’s all about trust. Eleven players have a job on every play, and Eli happens to have the most scrutinized job among them, in the most critical city of them all, on one of the most storied franchises in the league. Eli is also a former number one draft pick, the centerpiece in an enormous draft-day controversy/holdout that eventually delivered phenom linebacker Shawn Merriman to the Chargers (not to mention Philip Rivers). Further, he’s a member of the NFL’s most famous family, the younger brother of one of the greatest and most overexposed quarterbacks ever (see also Joe Namath). Eli has spent his entire NFL life in a crucible with the media hanging on every throw.

To me, Eli’s career has been like climbing a mountain of confidence. Some games he would take great strides, and others he would repel. As long as he just looks forward, doesn’t look back, and doesn’t wonder how he got up the mountain, I think he’ll be fine.

This team has totally changed personalities over the course of the past couple seasons. The Giants were often the highly penalized, highly volatile, negative attention getting group of me-first players. Now they’re a team.

You know how the lows are often as memorable as the highs? It’s true. I remember where I was, whom I was with, and precisely what happened for each of the Giants most torturous losses in the past decade. They are, in no particular order, off the top of my head (and if I’ve left a miserable one out, please don’t remind me):

1. The 1997 first-round playoff loss to the Vikings, where the Giants blew a nine-point lead in the final minute and a half, in a game that included a Vikings’ onside kick.

2. The 2003 playoff loss to the Forty-Niners after leading 38-14, including the 41-year old back-up snapper, signed as a fill in that week, botching two snaps, one of them on a potentially game winning field goal as time expired. Trey Junkin. Jeff Garcia and Rod Tidwell combined for about 10 completions/receptions, almost 200 yards and at least two touchdowns. This really happened: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recapPlayoff2002?gameId=230105025.

3. The Feely game. Kicker Jay Feely missed three consecutive field goal attempts in a tied game at Seattle, each of which could have won the game, two of them in overtime. Seriously: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=251127026.

4. The Titans game in 2006, where the Giants blew a 21-0 lead in the fourth quarter, eventually losing 24-21 in regulation. The Titans didn’t even get on the board until after the ten-minute mark in the fourth. The highlight of this game was a play where Kiwanuka had Vince Young wrapped up for a fourth-down, game ending sack, but let him go, fearing a personal foul penalty. Young snuck out of his grasp and ran almost twenty yards for a first down, breaking about six tacklers and my heart en route to the game tying drive.

5. The Panthers game in the first round of the playoffs in 2006. I knew things were looking grim when I was distraught over Nick Griesen’s injury, who at the time was the last healthy backup linebacker. The Giants had 132 total yards, scored zero points, and controlled the ball for less than 20 minutes.

6. The embarrassing loss to the Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV-- a game that was really never a game. The only Giants highlight--Ron Dixon's kickoff return for a touchdown--was followed by a kick return-TD by the Ravens on the very next play.

7. The Vikings game in 2005 where Minnesota had 137 yards of total offense, but became the first team in NFL history to score on a punt return, a kick return and an interception return in the same game en route to a 24-21 victory over the Giants: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=251113019.

8. A Monday night game against the Cowboys in 2003: the Giants scored the game-tying touchdown and two-point conversion with less than seven minutes remaining, then a “game winning” field goal with eleven seconds remaining. And that’s when Kicker Matt Bryant pushed the ball out of bounds on the ensuing kickoff, preserving the clock and putting the Cowboys on the forty-yard line. A twenty-five yard sideline reception left four seconds on the clock—plenty of time for a 52-yard field goal by Billy Cundiff. Cundiff kicked his seventh field goal of the game in overtime to secure the victory.

So yes, there have been highs. And as you can see above, there have been plenty lows. And for the past few years, third-down conversions on the Giants have been easier than Paris Hilton on totally hidden video. There were penalties, backbreaking penalties, drive-ending penalties, and personal fouls. The Giants consistently had meltdown plays and mistakes that you just knew would derail the confidence and mental stability of the team going forward. They called for Coughlin’s head. Eli was as much of a waste as he was an enigma. There was internal dissent, and a lack of belief in one another.

Not anymore. Not even in the city where everything is blown out of proportion.

For a fan that has suffered the team’s lowest lows, this is the highest high right now. I know they can win, and I think they will. And it’s this—the peace of mind, the belief, the faith, and understanding again why I fell in love with the team that makes the thrill so great.

Smiles & Frowns: It Never Gets Old

It’s hard to believe that Week 17 of the NFL season is already here and the fantasy football season is no longer.

I play because I need the competition; because I enjoy the insults and jabs that get thrown around on the league message board (note: telling your friend that his sister is attractive really does not get old); and I think that all of us play because we desire that unique element of control and pride that comes from owning a fantasy football team—unless your team is terrible.

Personally, I’m proud that one of my teams—with an unmentionable team name—won a league championship, but I’m sad it’s over. It’s like a movie with a pleasing ending that you just didn’t want to end. Granted, this was a better finish than the previous year when I lost a semi-final game by two points and spent the next week telling young children that Santa doesn’t exist (Okay, I didn’t. But I wanted to).

Still, it’s all over. But don’t fret—playoff football is almost here, the baseball season is closer than you think, and there are plenty of lessons to take from the season passed.

Because the season has ended in all of my leagues and most of yours, I will use this space to reflect back on my own league draft from September, rather than this past week’s managerial decisions. Just like a rough night out on the town, it’s important to discuss all of your good and bad decisions so you don’t repeat mistakes. And the great thing about fantasy football is that it’s perfectly fine to allow your friends to continually make the same mistakes, if for no other reason but because it’s funny.

A look back at the draft of my championship team (note: this draft took place in a 10-team head-to-head league):

Amazingly, this team finished with only six of the 19 players taken during the draft. The others I lost through trades or waivers.

Early Rounds:

1st Round: With the 2nd overall pick I selected Steven Jackson. At the time he was the consensus number two pick, so I was excited about that draft position. It was difficult for Steven Jackson owners to overcome the loss of him for four weeks, but he has been solid down the stretch with at least 76 yards rushing in every game following the Rams week-nine bye. Jackson added five touchdowns and 27 receptions over that span. Given the loss of OT Orlando Pace and the injuries to Marc Bulger, I was pleased with his production.

Don’t draft a player only because he’s a “consensus” pick or based on previous years’ statistics, and don’t rely on a “cheat sheet” to make your picks for you. But when you have a guy like Jackson who is a physical specimen, a running and receiving threat with an awesome television commercial where he physically harms people, I think it’s okay to draft him where the pundits put him.

2nd Round: With the 19th overall pick I selected Steve Smith (Carolina). Brief pause. It started out wonderfully (15 receptions for 271 yards and four touchdowns in the first two games), but the loss of Delhomme led to five David Carr starts and a Testaverde un-retirement. And you know how that played out. The result was a substandard year for Steve Smith. Fortunately, I was able to trade him mid-season before his value diminished too much.

Although I favor running backs in the early rounds and it was extremely frustrating to suffer from the “I can’t not start Steve Smith even with Carr throwing to him” Syndrome, I don’t regret the pick. In the greater scheme of things, I think Smith may actually get undervalued going into next year’s draft as a result—look out in 2008.

4th Round: I was able to get Tom Brady with the 39th overall pick. Coming off a 24-touchdown, 12-interception year (and a career-high 28 touchdown passes), no one could have predicted his McGwire-sized numbers this year, even with the overhaul at the Patriots wide receiver position. This pick worked out well and is the reason my team played in the championship. Sometimes you just get lucky.

Middle Rounds:

10th Round: Michael Turner. “Handcuff” fever and a personal vendetta against an owner who took Turner in a separate league where I owned Tomlinson pushed me to grab Turner where I really didn’t need him. Although, I thought I got good value at the time. Logically, it made sense given his production in 2006 (80 carries for 502 yards) and as Tomlinson’s backup; but I wonder going forward if it may be better to pile assets that have value other than as trade bait. You never know if you will be able to trade that player, and for what.

12th Round: I drafted Wes Welker 119th overall. It was my favorite pick of the draft. In the middle rounds and late rounds I like to find consistent, complementary players (reserves), and I like to take fliers. He turned out to be a perfect, reliable slot target who consistently produced. I certainly didn’t pencil him in for over 100 catches, but Welker was what I thought he’d be!!!! He was what I thought he’d be, and I didn’t let him off the hook!!!!

Late Rounds:

17th Round: I took TE Chris Baker from the Jets here, the first tight end I selected. I felt that after the first handful of TE’s, there was no sense in picking one sooner just to fill out the roster where there was better value elsewhere on the board. Well, tight end continued to be a spot of weakness for me until mid-season as I started everyone including Mark Bavaro. I eventually was able to use my 14th round pick Brandon Marshall to acquire Heath Miller mid-season, but maybe I won’t wait quite so long to draft a TE next season.

Thanks for reading.

Now you’ll excuse me I’m going to get my computer some HGH so I’ll be ready to talk about baseball in the New Year.

Smiles & Frowns: Snow Day!

Mother Nature reminded us of a couple major points this past week: the weather changes everything, and NFL stars are humans.

I remember a “snow day” and a snow football game that took place in my backyard once upon a time. It looked a lot like the NFL game in Cleveland this past Sunday between the Browns and the Bills. There weren’t any 300-pound athletes, we didn’t play cover-2 defense and no one was watching; but the snow, the mud and the chilling winds—they were all the same.

The weather can be quite humbling. A group of kids on a snow day, your average athlete and even NFL stars (on your fantasy team) can only do so much in a blizzard with 30 to 40 mile-per-hour winds. The clouds rain on Tom Brady, too; Randy Moss’s hands get wet; and the wind does not redirect Eli Manning’s already inaccurate passes. The lesson to all of us then: dull your expectations when your players confront some of the blustery weather conditions that our heroes did on Sunday.

So for those of us going into the last week of the fantasy season in most leagues, let’s heed Mother Nature’s reminder. And let’s get everyone a cup of hot cocoa. With the little marshmallows.

A couple of my key decisions from this past week:

Decision #1: Tampa Bay Defense or Jacksonville Defense

Theory: Find the team in disarray and exploit them

The Scenario: Atlanta versus Tampa Bay, in Tampa Bay. Michael Vick is sentenced two almost two years in jail on the Monday preceding this past week's game. Bobby Petrino quits the next day, on the Tuesday preceding the upcoming game, leaving the rest of his 24-Million dollar contract on the table. Michael Vick. Bobby Petrino. Michael Vick. Bobby Petrino. Michael Vick. Bobby Petrino. Michael Vick. Bobby Petrino. Veterans unhappy. A traitor; a quarterback carousel; an owner betrayed. The 2007 Atlanta Falcons are in a total and unique state of disarray. Meanwhile, their opponent, Tampa Bay, had a chance to clinch the NFC South with a win.

My alternative, the Jaguars defense, has been very strong this season too, although they were headed on the road against a solid opponent in Pittsburgh. I had to go with Tampa Bay.

The Aftermath: Chris Redman got thrown to the wolves. He started at quarterback for the Falcons, playing in his 15th contest in eight NFL seasons, finishing the day 4 for 15 passing for 34 yards and two interceptions. Tampa returned one of those two interceptions for a touchdown, added two fumble recoveries, a sack and actually recorded their first kickoff return for a touchdown in franchise history (in franchise history!) en route to a 37-3 victory. They banked a lot of points. The Jaguars on the other hand won a surprisingly high-scoring contest against Pittsburgh in the snow, recording five sacks and no turnovers.

Verdict: Good call. Now this certainly wasn’t my most brilliant managerial move ever, so I won’t pat myself on the back. But this is a good place to make the underlying point: players are human. The Falcons had nothing to play for—the season is over, the coach quit, their franchise quarterback—and to many of them, a friend—just got sentenced to two years in prison. The “leaders” and veterans are angry, and rightfully so, and many of them have spoken publicly about it. The team is in total disarray.

Find these teams and players and use it to your advantage. This Bears, while a prouder and more talented team, are headed in this direction. Yes, these players are professionals and it is a job, after all, but no doubt certain teams and players are less motivated than others. Home field advantage is what it is in large part due to the fact that they have the support of their fans. The same applies. Where there is less support and less motivation, performance diminishes. Study the opponent when deciding which of your players to go with this week.

Decision #2: WR Dwayne Bowe or WR Santonio Holmes

Theory: When in doubt, avoid bad weather

The Scenario: I wanted to start Holmes. He’s a more experienced receiver on a better team, with a better quarterback in Roethlisberger. But, as mentioned above, Pittsburgh was the site of one of the winter-wonderland games.

Alternatively, Bowe is a rookie receiver with a very inexperienced second-year quarterback slinging the ball to him in Brodie Croyle (who ended up having a fine fantasy day, I should add—better than Brady’s). Rookie receivers have a tendency to wear down, too. On top of that, Kansas City was out of the playoff hunt headed into the game, while its opponent, the Titans, had their playoff lives on the line. Also, Bowe has scored only one touchdown in the past ten weeks (still one more than I have).

Holmes’ greatest asset, I think, is his speed; speed doesn’t kill in the snow. I decided to go with Bowe.

The Aftermath: Bowe caught five for 64, and Holmes finishing with four for 34 and a two-point conversion. Slight edge to Bowe.

Verdict: Conditions being equal, I would have decided to go with Holmes. But Heinz field has been a disaster this year, and I just wanted to play it safe. I usually adhere to the theory, "go with your guy”, but I think I was justified here going with Bowe. If nothing else, I learned the zip code to Pittsburgh when I looked up the weather forecast.

If you’re still alive, good luck this week!

Smiles & Frowns: Win or Go Home

I’m a mellower manager these days, but it’s still painful to lose a game by only a narrow margin, especially a playoff game. Every point counts, obviously, and that point is magnified in the playoffs.

I lost a couple close games this past weekend; a season building team chemistry, overcoming draft busts, pretending my players were real, making gratuitous calls to friends to discuss trades I knew would not happen, begging Amani Toomer to throw a touchdown pass to himself—and now it’s all over. All you can really do is put yourself in the best position to win each game, and if that’s not enough, hope for the incredible. The incredible occasionally does happen, by the way:

A few years ago a friend of mine was in a very tight game where his only remaining player was Marvin Harrison, and the other owner had Peyton Manning and a narrow lead. The only realistic way to win was a Harrison rushing touchdown or for Harrison to catch a touchdown pass from someone other than Manning. Well, Manning dropped back and threw a screen (behind the line of scrimmage) to tight end Ken Dilger, who heaved the ball downfield to Marvin for a late forty-something yard touchdown pass. My friend’s head nearly exploded, and he went on to win.

The Marvin Harrison Affair was as gratifying as another friend’s tragedy involving Daunte Culpepper during his Viking days. A late Culpepper touchdown put my friend’s squad ahead by a tenth of a point. An absolute miracle, right? Wrong. The Vikings’ opponent tried to rally late only to turn the ball over, bringing Culpepper back on to the field to take a snap, then two steps backward and a knee—recorded as negative two rushing yards. My friend lost his game as a result. His head nearly exploded.

But it’s not always about the end; it’s about the ride. That, and winning. So really, it’s about winning. If you’re still in the dance, good luck this week.

A look back at a couple roster decisions from this past week:

Decision #1: K Matt Bryant or K Lawrence Tynes

Theory: Choosing a kicker is like making soup—choose the best ingredients

The Scenario: I know the “theory” sounds crazy, so let me explain: kickers are often overvalued in drafts, and overlooked once the season has begun. You have to pay attention to different variables week-to-week to determine which kicker is the best option. For example, consider: is the kicker playing in cold weather (ball is harder and doesn’t travel as well)? Warm weather (ball travels further)? In a dome? Will weather conditions be poor (footing)? Does the opposing team have a stingy defense? Does the opposing team have an average defense but a good red-zone defense (some defenses improve when the field is shorter, which leads to FG chances)? Is the offense without a key player that could cause the offense to sputter?

The possibilities are endless. So, you’ve got to put all the ingredients together, and make as rational a choice as possible. This past week I had to choose between the above kickers. Tampa would be playing in Houston, and Bryant has been getting plenty of field goal opportunities. And, Houston is towards the bottom of the league in points allowed. The Giants would face a tough divisional opponent—the Eagles—in Philadelphia. Weather conditions looked fair, but it’s certainly colder in Philly. I decided to go with Bryant.

The Aftermath: Gruden faked us all and Jeff Garcia didn’t play. Tampa’s offense looked unavoidably different with backup QB McCown, and Bryant never got a field goal attempt. Meanwhile, the Giants stalled three times in the red zone leading to field goals of 19, 23 and 23 yards.

Verdict: All you can do is pick the best ingredients. All things equal, I went for the kicker in warm weather and the team facing what I thought was a weaker opponent. Didn’t work out, obviously. The eight-point differential actually would have won the playoff game for me, too. I didn’t draft either of these kickers, I should note. Don’t draft them too high, or at all, but don’t overlook them.

Decision #2: WR Santana Moss or WR Sidney Rice

Theory: Don't worry about "missing out" on the points

The Scenario: Moss and the Redskins had a Thursday game this past week and I was torn between starting Moss and Rice. The Thursday game forced me to rush a decision. The Redskins were coming off an emotional week, and then they wouldn’t have much time to prepare for another game on Thursday.

When the players are close, I think that managers have a natural tendency to want to play the guy who will be going first, to avoid having that feeling of “I missed out” on the points. Then, the Thursday guy will be staring at you on the roster for two days, as you just hope the player starting Sunday will match the output. Of course it can work out the other way and you’re glad you didn’t let the timing issue influence the decision. I fell into the trap and I started Moss when my gut told me to start Rice.

The Aftermath: Both had underwhelming performances—Moss caught three for 29 yards and Rice had two for 21.

Verdict: I ignored my intuition and started Moss. In that regard, I screwed up. Moss hasn’t been healthy for some time and he was playing on three days rest. I should have started Rice. But, the points worked out in my favor.

***Please also see the comments to the Dec. 4 article discussing why you should sometimes err on the side of caution instead of guessing between two running backs in a committee.

Good luck this week.

Smiles & Frowns: Fortunes Change Fast

If you made the post-season dance, I hereby extend my congratulations. If you didn’t, rest assured that fortunes change fast.

Just ask Mangenius, or the currently 0-12 Dolphins (picked preseason by Sports Illustrated last year to win the AFC), the Saints and Bears (appeared in last season’s NFC Championship game, currently at 5-7 apiece), Carrie Underwood (dumped by Romo) or the fantasy-owners of Vince Young and Shaun Alexander. At least Mangini lost a lot of weight.

You can also ask the Buccaneers (4-12 last year), the Browns (also 4-12 last year), Chris Chambers—traded mid-season from the winless Dolphins to the AFC West leading Chargers, Jeff Garcia—hero, throwaway and hero again, and Tony Romo—hero, goat and hero again (brief aside: a friend pointed out to me recently that since the realignment beginning in 2002, the last place team in the NFC South has finished first in the division the following season every year, and the Bucs will continue that bizarre tradition this year).

Things change fast in the NFL and fantasy football. People hop on and off the bandwagon. Actually, it’s not really a bandwagon anymore—it’s a more modern, accessible, swiftly moving vehicle. Those of you that picked Laurence Maroney in the first two rounds, it’s not your fault. And those of you who “took a chance” on another Patriot named Randy Moss in the third round, well done.

So if you didn’t make the post-season, go get some Cheez-Its and sulk for a while. If you did, good luck!

A look back at a couple important decisions from this past week:

Decision #1: RB Thomas Jones or RB LenDale White

Theory: Ignore the stats-- go with the better player

The Scenario: Heading into this game, Thomas Jones did not have a touchdown in the previous 11 games. He was also held to 67 or fewer yards in seven of those 11 games. The whole Jets team is underachieving. On the flipside, LenDale White followed up three 100-yard rushing games with a combined 81 yards in the following three games. He carried the ball only 29 times during that stretch for the sputtering Titans. White still had five more touchdowns entering Sunday’s games.

The Jets would play at Miami, ranked at the bottom in rushing defense. However, this was Miami’s “most winnable” game left on the slate this year. I expected the Dolphins would make a decent showing. The Titans were hosting Houston, also ranked in the bottom third for rushing defense. I also couldn’t ignore the fact that the Jets were underdogs to a defeated team while they’ve been playing “competitive” football all year. That had to spur some anger. So I decided to go with Thomas Jones, the veteran, twice a 1000-yard rusher, hoping that he would play angry. I felt he was the better player and the better option.

Aftermath: Almost a push. Both scored a touchdown. Jones rushed for 15 more yards, although he averaged only 3.1 yards per carry (Miami showed some pride).

Verdict: Push. You could make a decent case for both. In the end, Jones did have twice the number of carries as White. All you can really ask for is those opportunities.

Decision #2: WR Sidney Rice or WR Muhsin Muhammad

Theory: When you’re playing spoiler, you’re entitled to be irrational

The Scenario: My team has been out of contention for a while in one league. It’s a league where owners can trade players for future draft picks, and I had my “firesale” several weeks earlier. But I’ve been really enjoying the role of spoiler or the team that makes life more difficult, pouncing on every promising free agent.

This week, in what was guaranteed to be my last game of the season in that league, I was scheduled to play the first-placed team. I had a fairly competitive squad with Steven Jackson, my keeper, and a patchwork of guys including Kurt Warner and Kolby Smith. I needed to choose between Rice and Muhammad for the last receiver spot.

When you’ve got nothing to lose, I think you’re entitled to be irrational, so I decided to pick the guy with the better name. Mushin Muhammad offers alliteration, and it sort of flows off the tongue. He also has a good nickname, “Moose”, so it sounds like boooos when the home crowd calls him. On the other hand, Sidney Rice has the same last name as the best receiver in history of the game, Jerry Rice. Sidney Rice also flows off the tongue very well. I said the name out loud a couple times before deciding that Sidney Rice was the cooler name.

Aftermath: Sidney Rice caught five for 53 and a touchdown, compared to Muhammad’s three for 52 against a Giants secondary without starting free safety Gibril Wilson and corner Aaron Ross. My totally irrational decision-making paid off en route to an upset over the first placed team.

Verdict: Dumb luck.

Smiles & Frowns: Judgment Week

If, but, well…maybe.

Any Given Sunday.

Indeed.

A lot of leagues will be put a period on regular season play this week, and before the games begin—and surely after—so many owners will toil over the “ifs.”

Just look at this past week:

If Heinz field weren’t an above ground pool on Monday night, Pittsburgh’s kicker Jeff Reed probably would have scored more points.

If Carolina had a quality, half-decent, or even slightly below average quarterback on the right side of age forty, Steve Smith probably would have scored more points.

If the Denver coaching staff weren’t so stubborn or too proud to kick the ball out of bounds, Devin Hester and the Bears Defense & Special Teams wouldn't have manhandled my squad.

No matter how much we know, or think we know, we never really know what’s going to happen week to week. You can’t count on anything, especially in the NFL (a good time to direct your attention back to the Tony Romo botched hold on the extra point in Seattle last year). And that’s the beauty of it all. The same is true in fantasy football, and that principle is never more pronounced than in week thirteen. So whatever you’re fighting for this week thirteen—the number-one seed, a first-round bye, a playoff berth or respectability, or if you’re just jockeying for position, take what you know and hopefully you won’t find yourself on the wrong side of the “if.”

But, if you do screw up, well, maybe you’ll have better luck next year.

A look back at some of the key decisions from this past week:

Decision #1: WR Ronald Curry or WR Javon Walker

Theory: Beware of the player returning from an injury

The Scenario: My squad was matched up against one of the weaker teams in the league, and I was looking to lock up a playoff spot with a win. Walker was hoping to return to action after missing the previous eight games with a knee injury. I had been monitoring Walker’s status all week, hoping to get a vote of confidence, and shortly before game-time this is a portion of what I found: "It's feeling pretty good.” And, “It's not completely healed. But it's something I can work through. It feels good.” That’s like the assurance from one guy to his friend about the girl he met the night before after one too many jack and cokes: “I think she was cute. I didn’t get a good look, but I think she was cute.” Not much of an assurance at all, Jovan.

As much as I wanted to throw Walker back into my lineup, the first receiver I took during the draft, I couldn’t. Not for his first game back, on the road, with QB Jay Cutler having an up and down season. So I went with Curry who has been hot and cold. The majority of receivers are anyways.

The Aftermath: Jovan was only on the field for eight plays and dropped a goose egg. Curry caught six, but for only 39 yards. Still, six and 39 more than Jovan.

Verdict: Good call. As I discussed in a previous week—names don’t win games. Avoid the temptation of starting a guy just because you drafted him high.


Decision #2: QB Carson Palmer or QB Tony Romo
Note: Opponent has T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Theory: Start the guy you would normally start; don’t attempt the “handcuff”

The Scenario: Okay, this is actually a hypothetical, but a decision many of you, and myself, have faced before: whether to start the quarterback throwing to your opponent’s #1 WR instead of the quarterback you would otherwise start. I’ll refer to that as attempting to “handcuff” your opponents’ wide receiver, because you’re trying to assure that any points the receiver gets, your quarterback will get. And, the hope is that your quarterback will spread the ball around elsewhere so you can still throw up some points without opponent’s receiver getting much of them. It makes sense, sort of. But here’s the thing: if you’ve got a quarterback that is probably a better start, or clearly the guy you would go with otherwise, you’re giving up a lot of points, potentially, to try and gain the advantage of a handcuff.

The Aftermath: Hypothetically, Palmer goes 20/25 for 200 and two touchdowns, one to Housh and one to Chad Johnson, and Romo goes 20/25 for 300 and four touchdowns. Well, you’ve made sure that Housh didn’t break you, and you benefit from the Johnson touchdown, but Romo would have provided a much greater total.

Verdict: Of course, this could go the other way, and Housh could explode (via Palmer) and Romo could wet the bed. But the real football adage guides this theory—don’t let your opponent dictate your move(s). Stick with your guys.

Decision #3: WR Mike Furrey or WR Amani Toomer

Theory: Use your head

The Scenario: Okay, this wasn’t a decision I had to make this week, but it’s one you and I have faced before: the temptation to start a guy because he’s in a televised game (or as common, on your favorite team). My brother actually faced this very predicament on Thanksgiving with Furrey and the Lions playing the early game. He wasn’t thrilled with either option, but in the thick of a playoff hunt, he still had to carefully evaluate this decision. Going into the game, Furrey had been consistent with exactly five receptions and a bunch of yards in six of the first ten games. Toomer has been serviceable and would be facing the 32nd ranked Minnesota passing defense (we know how that turned out). Furrey would face an average Green Bay pass defense, as one among a group of productive Lions WR’s this year. Debatable, but both my brother and I knew he should probably start Toomer.

The Aftermath: He couldn’t resist the temptation of watching Furrey live on Thanksgiving Day. Furrball caught zero passes for zero yards; Toomer had four for 83.

Verdict: Bad idea. I love Thanksgiving.

Smiles & Frowns: The Power of Ed

An hour before the Patriots-Bills game on Sunday night, I asked one of the guys in my league if I “was safe.” But at that point, I was already done, and I knew it.

I had Lee Evans, Ben Watson, a 16-point lead, a collection of expletives and a typical scoring system guarding me against Randy Moss version 3.0. Actually, Terrell Owens’ four-touchdown performance earlier in the day troubled me as much as Moss’s freakish abilities. Do they try and one-up each other? Maybe, maybe not. But when Moss has the ability to do almost anything he wants on the field, it seems, the prospect of an unspoken wide-receiver rivalry is scary when your team is on wrong end of it.

Of course, Moss blew up and caught four touchdowns in the first half, Evans managed only 40 yards on four catches and Watson even got a touchdown of his own. But Moss was too much to overcome, and my team—Ed Hochuli’s Biceps—got crushed. What can you do? What could I do? Nothing. Sometimes there’s just nothing you can do but laugh.

The point here is that no lead, and I repeat—no lead—is ever safe. Just ask the guys who got “Grossmanned” in week six against Arizona last year, where Rex recorded several negative points in scoring systems that allowed it. So, friends, sometimes you just have to laugh. Ed Hochuli is only so strong.

A couple of important roster decisions from Week 11:

Decision #1: WR Laveranues Coles or WR Reggie Brown

Theories: 1) Go with your guy, and don’t worry too much about the “matchup”
2) Beware of inflated numbers

The Scenario: The Steelers are notorious for blitzing the quarterback, in particular, young quarterbacks. Jets QB Kellen Clemens is a young quarterback. Goo! That did not bode well for Jets WR Laveranues Coles, coupled with the fact that Coles was recovering from a concussion. Further, my colleague Matt Cohen warned you earlier this week to “stay away” from Coles. Still, I was not enthused with my alternative, Reggie Brown.

Reggie Brown has broken three catches only twice through ten games. In five games, he has two or fewer catches. Looking at the most recent two weeks (leading up to week 11), Brown had 55 yards in each of them, but in both of those games the total was inflated by a 45 yard catch. Some guys are “big play guys”, and that’s super, but you can’t count on a big play every week, at least not this year with Reggie Brown. Not even against the Dolphins. He’s had too many goose-droppings games; I’d almost rather a goose egg.

So, I decided that Coles was my guy. Now I am aware there is no real sense of “loyalty” felt between players and managers of a fantasy football team. I am also aware that my players don’t know when I bench them to send them a message that I expect better production. But, I maintain that you should not stray from the guys who are simply the better players on your team. That, in some sense, is loyalty.

The Aftermath: Ironically, Coles’ only reception was a “big play”, a 56-yard catch. Coles was forced to leave the game though after injuring his ankle. Reggie Brown managed only two catches for 18 yards. Brown’s fate may have been different too if McNabb wasn’t forced to leave with an injury.

Verdict: Coles netted the greater point total. I think I made the right call, although better health on both sides would have provided a better sample for the two theories. In addition, I need to learn how to spell Coles’ first name without looking it up.


Decision #2: WR Wes Welker or WR Muhsin Muhammad

Theory: Don’t leave points on the bench

The Scenario: The only reason this was a decision is because Welker’s status was questionable/unknown/mysterious throughout the week. He was inactive because of a “team decision.” I had no idea what that meant. So just as a head coach never wants to leave timeouts in the pocket, I wanted to avoid leaving Muhammad and the points on my bench, given the risk that Welker might not play. Still, I decided to go with Welker.

Truthfully, I expected Welker to play, and the Patriots removed him from the injury list before game-time. But this is a good place to discuss the “game-time decision” problem. When in serious doubt, take the points, unless the alternative would be such a drastic drop-off that it’s worth taking a risk on the questionable/probable/doubtful guy. You have to consider the type of injury, how important that player is to the team, the player’s injury history and so on in evaluating the likelihood that he will play. But, you really only know what reports reveal, and reports are not always accurate.

I was fortunate the find out about Welker before the game. If his status were still in doubt, I might have gone with Muhammad. I probably should have if that were the case, but have you seen Wes Welker’s high school statistics? He was an all-state running back in Oklahoma and rushed for 3,235 yards and 53 touchdowns on 495 attempts; he caught 174 passes for 2,551 yards and 27 scores; he recorded 22 interceptions and returned seven punts for touchdowns for a total of 90 touchdowns in his prep career. He also kicked a 57-yard field goal! It’s hard not to start the guy, no matter what.

The Aftermath: Welker played, catching seven for 78 yards, and Muhammad had three receptions for 71 yards.

Verdict: Given the news, Welker was the right play. Welker was probably the Homecoming King, too.

Smiles & Frowns: What the Heck Was I Thinking?!

Rankings are just rankings.

What should happen often does not.

That's why they play the games.

Managing a fantasy team is about making decisions. All that any of us have to guide those decisions—from the novices to the experts—is statistics, trends, injury and weather reports, history, and so forth. After rereading that last sentence, I suppose that is quite a bit of information. But, the point is, aside from reading posts on the league message board pointing out my friends' character flaws, the real fun of managing a team is making choices.

And they're not always good ones. But you have to learn from the bad ones and give yourself plenty of credit for the good ones. I have won my share of leagues and made plenty of blunders leaving myself to wonder, "What the heck was I thinking?!"

With that in mind, I'm going to use this space to explain the theory and logic that guided my own roster decisions from the previous week, and discuss how they played out.


Decision #1: Running Back— Kenny Watson or Maurice Morris

Theory: When your opponent's team is clearly better than yours, take risks.

The Scenario: I was a victim of the bye this week, losing Welker, Brady and the underwhelming Thomas Jones. I had to plug in J.P. Losman and Joe Jurevicius to fill two of the voids, facing up against one of the league's best teams.

Now, after watching Ray Lewis' post-game, locker-side rant following Pittsburgh's 38-7 spanking of Baltimore, I was legitimately scared—scared of Ray Lewis, and scared of using anyone from Baltimore's next opponent: Cincinnati. So there is part of the case against Kenny Watson, as well as the risk that Rudi Johnson would take a bigger cut of Watson's carries.

On the flipside, Shaun Alexander would be a game-time decision on Monday, so if I wanted to roll the dice on backup Morris, I would risk getting stuck with a backup. But Morris has proved to be a capable receiver out of the backfield and the upside was there. As for Watson, he's been averaging 4.4 yards per carry after 98 carries to go with 25 receptions. Not bad. But, with Brady out, a powerful opponent, and Ray Lewis extremely upset, I decided to go with Morris and the upside.

The Aftermath: Alexander was a scratch and Morris got all of Seattle's carries, rushing for 87 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries. Morris added three catches for 16 yards. Rudi Johnson got the bulk of Cincinnati’s carries and left little for Watson.

Verdict: Good call. My team was overmatched, I still got crushed and dropped to 7-3, but I picked up the extra points.


Decision #2: Running Back— Jamal Lewis or Maurice Morris

Theory: If you are evenly matched with your opponent (or even a slight underdog), don't get cute.

The Scenario: I'm using Morris in a different scenario here to illustrate how it often makes sense to sit a guy in one league that you may want to start in another. Everything is relative.

I do not like having Jamal Lewis on my team. He was one of those "I had to take him because he was still on the board when I was up" picks. Yes, he scored four touchdowns last week, but don't overlook the fact that he averaged less than two yards per carry on 20 carries in that effort. This is not the same Jamal Lewis that ran for 500 yards in two games against the Browns in 2003. Now, he plays for the Brownskies! Worse, the Browns had to make a road trip to Pittsburgh to face the top rush defense in the league.

Still, I felt obliged to start Jamal Lewis over Maurice Morris. At the time Lewis was set to start, Shaun Alexander's status was still uncertain, and I didn't want to be stuck with a backup RB in Morris and leave Lewis and "the points" on the bench. I didn't expect much from Lewis, but I felt I had to go with the starting running back when I had a decent chance against my opponent.

The Aftermath: Lewis stunk and Morris started, putting up 12 more fantasy points than Lewis under that league's settings, and I banged my head against the wall several times.

Verdict: I still think I made the right call. Yet, I still banged my head against the wall.


Decision #3: Defense— Jacksonville or Baltimore

Theory: Names don't win games—pull the plug

The Scenario: The decision to sit Baltimore defense this year is getting easier and easier each week. Yes, Baltimore was probably one of the top three defenses off the board in your league draft. But Baltimore came into this Sunday off a performance where they allowed five touchdown passes to Roethlisberger and the Steelers.

With the Raven's secondary at half-strength and LB Terrell Suggs and DE Trevor Pryce banged up a bit, it was becoming hard to justify starting the Ravens. Meanwhile, Jacksonville was headed on the road to Tennessee against a struggling Vince Young.

Back to the point—names don't win championships. Take the counterexample from last year: Mike Furrey. Furrey finished with an NFC leading 98 receptions in 2006 and over one thousand yards. He came from nowhere and played for the then lowly Lions. But he got the job done. Furrey does not sound like the name of a leading NFL receiver, or even an NFL receiver period.

The Aftermath: I started Jacksonville, and they allowed only thirteen points, adding three turnovers and four sacks. Baltimore? Three sacks, no turnovers and seven field goals allowed.

Verdict: Awesome.
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Brett Smiley, a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and Syracuse Law, is the newest Deputy Justice at SportsJudge.com . His column, Smiles & Frowns, appears on Tuesday afternoons at SportsJudge Blog.