Tampa Bay Lightning Still on Shaky Ground

Heading into this summer's NHL free agency period, it looked as if the Tampa Bay Lightning had hit rock bottom.  The media spotlight shone brightly on the Phoenix Coyotes bankruptcy proceedings, yet Oren Koules and Len Barrie, co-owners of the Lightning, were bickering over the direction of the cash-strapped franchise.

The team was coming off a dreadful season in which they finished second-to-last in the NHL and had major holes on the roster to fill. Perhaps realizing that another missed playoff appearance would make it very difficult to stay afloat, GM Brian Lawton went to work this offseason with Koules' checkbook in hand.  Gone were glorified pylons such as Noah Welch and Cory Murphy, and in came free agent prize defenseman Matthias Ohlund (7 years, $26.25M) in what seemed like just seconds after the free agency period opened.  Not only was Ohlund exactly what the Lightning needed to improve on perhaps the league's weakest defensive group last season, but the 33-year-old Swede was also the perfect mentor for '09 first round pick Victor Hedman who also hails from Sweden.

Prior to tonight's matchup with Toronto, Tampa finds themselves on a 4-1-2 run and tied for seventh place in the Eastern Conference with a 9-5-7 record through the first quarter of the season.  Head coach Rick Tocchet seems to be getting results from last season's disappointments. 2008 top pick Steven Stamkos has burst onto the scene and finds himself tied for the team scoring lead with 24 points.  Following a rough start under former head coach Barry Melrose last season, Tocchet made Stamkos a healthy scratch at times last spring to help him focus on his physical training.  Over the summer, Stamkos put in time with fitness-fanatic and former Lightning winger Gary Roberts:

"We did some unusual things...The toughest part was on dry land, pulling a 100-pound sled, sprinting the whole way and then turning around and going back. I was face up on the ground, gasping for air."

Stamkos added five to seven pounds of muscle or so, though, and his body fat dipped by three percentage points. He said he didn't want to add too much weight and sacrifice speed, so the body fat percentage was the real goal.

The training seems to have paid off, as Stamkos has already found the back of the net 15 times this season, three off the league lead.  Some are already calling for Hart Trophy consideration as league MVP for the 19-year-old forward.

Ryan Malone has been a direct beneficiary of Stamkos' success.  Following a disappointing 2008-09 campaign, the former-Penguins winger has 22 points in 21 games. Joe Smith at the St. Pete Times feels Malone is the team's unsung hero thusfar.  Things seem to be going great in Tampa Bay.  A far cry from the train wreck we antipicated in November 2008, right?

Not so fast.  I can't argue Malone's start hasn't been impressive; but is it really him, or the fact he's now paired with the talented Martin St. Louis and Stamkos, instead of bouncing between scoring lines and limited checking roles like last season? Malone stumbled onto a great line his final season in Pittsburgh when Evgeni Malkin helped Malone score 27 goals and land a mega-contract two summers ago. And how does one become unsung when his paycheck reads $6 million, as Malone's does this year?  He should be leading this team at that price.

While we're on the subject of millions, what about $10-million-man Vincent Lecavalier?  He's taken plenty of criticism in recent weeks (some of which is probably unwarranted), but maybe he's not the player who once scored 52 goals in a season.  In fact, since that 2006-07 season, his goal totals have dropped considerably as a result of mounting injuries.  He underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in April '08 following a cheapshot by Matt Cooke.  He's had wrist surgery on both wrists due to damage to the triangular fibrocartilage complex, the most recent coming last April after playing through a season of pain.  According to the University of Michigan Health System, for athletes like Lecavalier, "the longer you have symptoms before you start treatment, the longer it will take to get better."

One would assume he'll snap out of it, yet it's hard to ignore that he's currently on pace for a paltry 16 goals this season.  Despite rampant trade rumors, I can't think of many teams chomping at the bit to take on an underperforming, injury risk with huge money remaining on a contract that runs through 2020.

Off the ice, it isn't all that pretty either. Despite the successful start and slashed ticket prices, attendance is still down from last season, as the Lightning rank 25th out of 30 teams. Damien Cristodero shares some of the same concerns:

Operationally, the team has been stable this season, with co-owner Oren Koules and general manager Brian Lawton running things, and co-owner Len Barrie, as per commissioner Gary Bettman, involved only in transactions worth more than $2 million.
The question is what happens when the $15 million the organization received in league revenue sharing runs out and it has to start paying more of its bills on its own?

Barrie, although claiming his day-to-day role hasn't really changed since last season, may be in no position to come to the rescue financially.  According to a report by David Shoalts at the Globe & Mail:

His financial problems with the Bear Mountain golf resort and housing development near Victoria were severe enough to scuttle his attempt to buy out fellow owner Oren Koules in late summer. Now it appears as if the problems will worsen.

In the wake of a damning report by the company’s former auditor that accused management at Bear Mountain of misappropriating funds, a source said Canada Revenue Agency is looking into the development’s finances.

Barrie, who was accused in the report and by a member of the development’s executive committee of improperly financing at least part of his share of the Lightning with Bear Mountain funds, did not respond to a request for comment.

Shoalts went on to indicate that NHL commissioner Gary Bettman is content with the team's situation.  The economy is beginning to show signs of life and financing is a bit easier to come by than it was a year ago. Perhaps Koules will be able to lure in an outside investor or two.

Yet as the Phoenix Coyotes have found, not every corner of the country is out of the woods yet.  All signs point to Florida (like Arizona) still being years away from an economic and housing recovery.  How far will attendance and revenues fall if the team begins to struggle? What other skeletons are there in Barrie and Koules' closet? For now, every win silences the critics and buys the risk-taking Koules more time.  But an 18th century preacher once said, "The worst thing that can happen to a man who gambles, is to win”.

Extra Attacker: Lightning in a Bottle

On Thursday, "The Puck Stops Here" writer Joe Romano touched on the shocking firing of Barry Melrose after only 16 games behind the bench for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Following their 2004 Stanley Cup Championship, the Lightning have quickly become one of the most chaotic, embarassing, and rapidly imploding franchises in all of sports. As a hockey fan, one begins to wonder how and why this happened. After a complete summer roster overhaul can any coach be expected to produce wins only 16 games into the season? For a little background, let's take a look at the short version of the last few months for Tampa Bay after new ownership took over in June.

June 2008: Fired head coach John Tortorella. Hired Barry Melrose as head coach. Bought out the contract of goaltender Marc Denis. Traded assorted draft picks for the rights to sign Gary Roberts, Ryan Malone, and Brian Rolston. Traded draft pick for Janne Niskala. Signed Roberts and Malone, not Rolston.

July 2008: Traded defensemen Dan Boyle and Brad Lukowich to San Jose for Matt Carle and Ty Wishart. Signed Radim Vrbata, Adam Hall, Olaf Kolzig, Ryan Craig, David Koci, Wyatt Smith, Scott Jackson, Evgeny Artyukhin, Brandon Bochenski, Mark Recchi, Andrew Hutchinson, Zenon Konopka, Chris Gratton, Mike Smith, and Steven Stamkos. Signed Vincent Lecavalier to a 11-year extension. Named Rick Tocchet and Wes Walz assistant coaches. Named Tom Kurvers assistant GM. Announced the resignation of GM Jay Feaster. Named Mike Vernon assistant to hockey operations.

Aug-Sept 2008: Traded defensemen Filip Kuba, Alexandre Picard and a 1st round pick to Ottawa for Andrej Meszaros. Signed Meszaros to a 6-year contract.

October 2008: Traded draft pick to Pittsburgh for Michal Sersen. Claimed Matt Pettinger off waivers from Vancouver. Promoted Brian Lawton to GM. Signed Marek Malik.

November 2008: Traded Matt Carle to Philadelphia for Steve Eminger and Steve Downie. Claimed David Koci off waivers from St. Louis. Fired head coach Barry Melrose on November 14. Named Rick Tocchet interim head coach.

Reading through those roster moves, a number of trends stick out. First, the Lightning have obviously mortgaged the future by dealing away as many draft picks as possible in exchange for short term success. While this strategy might work for the Yankees or Red Sox, the bottom line in a salary cap league is if you head down this road you need to win immediately. Think New Orleans Saints of the NHL. After the Saints traded their entire draft for Ricky Williams in 1999 and it didn't work out, it took them years to dig themselves out of the gutter.

The next odd piece of this puzzle that might stand out to you if you're a longtime fan is that every single management move involves a big hockey name from the 90s. Now maybe it's nice to try a legend like Wayne Gretzky behind the bench as Phoenix did, but most of these former players have little or no experience coaching or managing a team. It was a disaster waiting to happen.

The third glaring mistake of the offseason was totally disregarding defense in an attempt to free up more money for big offensive names. Former Lightning Dan Boyle is currently 2nd in scoring among defensemen with 18 points through 20 games, while Filip Kuba is ranked 8th. On the flip side, Ryan Malone, who Tampa signed to a 7-year, $31.5 million contract this summer, has just 3 goals and zero assists through Friday.

So who are the ringleaders behind this circus and why have they been so obsessed with winning today instead of building a foundation for the future? OK Hockey, the ownership group that took over in June, is led by Oren Koules and Len Barrie. Koules gained his wealth as a result of the insanely successful set of "Saw" movies and worked as a day trader for the Chicago Mercantile Stock Exchange before that. Barrie hit it big with his Canadian golf club he started in Victoria. In fact, prior to that he was expelled from his golf club after he chopped down trees he claimed were on his property.

Okay, so we've got a pair of young hotheads looking for instant fame with plenty of money to burn. Koules and Barrie decide it'd be fun to buy a hockey team and hopefully they can make a quick buck in the process. Interestingly though, in a recent feature, Forbes.com shed some light on the financing arrangement: In June, OK Hockey, a group of eight owners led by Oren Koules and Len Barrie, bought the Tampa Bay Lightning, the lease rights to the St. Pete Times Forum and 5.5 axces of land in downtown Tampa's Channelside District near the arena for $210 million, of which $204 million was for the team and operating rights to the arena. The new owners believe they can increase cash flow by $18 million a year. They better. Their purchase was financed with a $105 million, three-year bullet loan, meaning in 2011 they will either have to pay the loan off or refinance it.

Now it's beginning to make sense. Koules and Barrie need to increase cash flow by $18 million a year and pay off the loan by 2011. They don't have the time to build through the draft and solid scouting like other organizations have realized is the key to long-term success in the salary cap era. Increasing cash flow can only be accomplished by packing the St. Pete Times Forum (giving away free tickets if you buy a jersey?), maximizing marketing appeal of the team, and most importantly, making the playoffs. The best approach is that of the Dallas Cowboys. High priced offensive stars (Malone, Vrbata, Roberts, etc), controversial media figures (Tocchet), and a head coach (Melrose) that has been in the living room of hockey fans every week for the last decade. Unfortunately, throwing all of these pieces together and hoping for results a month into the season is asking for a mess.

Melrose believed in players earning their playing time. Management wanted Steven Stamkos, their premiere #1 draft pick from last year, playing big time minutes right away. They wanted Gary Roberts and Radim Vrbata, their high-priced 'toys,' to play more. There are rumors that Koules was in the locker room drawing up plays in between periods. The players began to revolt against Melrose. Melrose skipped practice November 11 in an attempt to wake up the team. Losses piled up. Playoff hopes were heading down the drain. Repaying the OK Hockey ownership loan was looking nearly impossible. November 14th Barry Melrose was fired.

Will this turn the season around or was the public relations disaster just another act in this ongoing comedy? You can expect a handful of spirited games under new coach Rick Tocchet, but the same problems still exist. Tocchet has no head coaching experience and Tampa's defense is embarassing to say the least. Assume Koules and Barrie will continue to puppeteer GM Brian Lawton, especially if the team slips further and further out of playoff contention. In a way, ownership is treating this team like a fantasy team. If players don't perform, trade them, cut them, replace them. You can't run a real organization like this...but if you're looking for solid, on-the-money fantasy hockey advice, make sure to check back every Thursday for Joe Romano's segment "The Puck Stops Here."