Thursday, September 27, 2007

Matt's Stats: Week 4 NFL Preview

While my baseball team is struggling to hang on (LET'S GO METS!!!!!), my fantasy teams are on a role! With Week 4 comes a key part of the season where many teams are decimated by injuries and many unknowns begin to make a name for themselves. Now for some players that should help this week:

"Sleep"ing on the Job:

1) Kenny Watson (RB, Cincinnati Bengals): Rudi Johnson is officially out this week due to his hamstring injury and that makes Kenny Watson, currently owned in only 39 percent of all CBS leagues, a player worthy of an immediate pickup. Watson so far this season has 9 carries for 60 yards and 1 TD as a backup. When starting for the explosive Bengals offense, these stats are sure to increase.

2) Roddy White (WR, Atlanta Falcons): After 2 years of disappointment White is finally starting to put up some big numbers. After back to back big games (Week 2: 4 Catches, 81 Yards and Week 3: 7 Catches, 127 Yards, 1 TD), White appears quickly to becoming a favorite target of Joey Harrington. The more experience these two play with each other, the better White's stats should be.

"Play" or "Stay Away"

QB - Play Brett Favre (QB, Packers) this week. Might as well ride the old vet while he is hot. Favre combined for 632 yards with 2 TD and 2 INT in 2 games last year against Minnesota. Favre is comfortable playing in the Metrodome and is trying to set the TD record, you can be sure that he has a big game this Sunday.

Stay away from Derek Anderson (QB, Browns). Anderson followed his great 5 TD game with a so-so 248 Yard, 1 TD, 2 INT game against Oakland. Anderson must now play against the tough Baltimore Defense and it is highly recommended that you look elsewhere for a QB to start this week.

RB - Play Marshawn Lynch (RB, Bills) this week against the Jets. The Jets currently rank 20th in the league against the Run and historically always have had trouble with the Bills running game when McGahee was there. Lynch has been the lone bright spot this year for the Bills, totalling 228 yards and 4 TD. Combine that with the fact that Trent Edwards will be in his first career start, and it should equal a lot of rushing for Lynch in Week 4.

Stay away from Warrick Dunn (RB, Falcons). Dunn is playing against a much improved Houston Texans team (currently ranked 6th against the rush) and will not have much room to run. Try to find someone better if possible to start over Warrick Dunn in Week 4.

WR - Play Darrell Jackson (WR, 49ers) in Week 4. Jackson has been waiting all season to get his first TD with his new team, and there is no better time then this week against his old team, the Seattle Seahawks (ranked 29th in allowing receiving yards this season). Expect 80-100 yards and a TD for Jackson this week.

Stay away from any Vikings receivers. Tavaris Jackson may not be playing this week and this will weaken the already mediocre WR corps (when your RB leads in receiving yards you can't be that good) Stay away from the likes of Bobby Wade, Troy Williamson, and TE Visanthe Shiancoe. The Packers defense is on the rise and the Vikings slight chance of winning will only be based on the running of Adrian Peterson this week.

Survival of the Fittest:

After moving to 3-0 for the season, its time for my survival pick of the week. This week it is going to be the SD Chargers over the KC Chiefs. The Chargers can not possibly be this bad, can they? Here's thinking that maybe they can pull out the old powder blues and run away with the game to get their season back on track. (The Professor agrees the Chargers are a decent pick, but he much prefers the Cowboys and Colts).

Have a great week!
Matt Cohen is a Senior Deputy Justice at His column, Matt's Stats appears on Fridays at SportsJudge Blog.

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mangan said...

looks like your survival streak is done. dallas was the lock of the week, I don't know why you would have thought otherwise. until san diego proves something to me, I'm staying away from them.

also, why do you mention such obvious players to stay away from in your column? every week it seems that any name you mention isn't on a lot of teams (and shouldn't be for obvious reasons). If I have to even think about playing Warrick Dunn, I'd pretty much say my fantasy team sucks.

mangan said...

Dear Matt,

i'm still waiting for a response to my previous comment. do you have nothing to say or are you too busy hiding from all the bookies in town after making a bad pick-em choice this week and you don't have access to the internet?

either way, let me help you out this week. if you are maintaining the "survivor" style for picking winners, go with the Tennessee Titans. That's my lock of the week.

if we're talking about making some money, take Houston to cover, the dogs in Detroit to win outright and the over in the Jacksonville vs Kansas City game (currently at 36). If you're not going to respond to your reader's posts, I'll have to start picking up the slack

Matt Cohen said...

Thanks Mangan for your comments. While I thought Dallas was going to win (and I picked them in my pickem pool), I felt SD was the best bet this week. Returning home after two tough road games...if the Chargers were ever going to break out, last week was the week to do it. Instead my survivor pick on here was one of only 3 losses I had in my pickem pool out of 14 games this week.

As for Warrick Dunn, I don't know what kind of league you are in but Dunn is owned in 86 percent of CBS leagues. In the stay/play segment of my blog I like to use players that teams will be considering to use on any given week and not a starting RB who had over 1,100 yards last season, I feel that Dunn easily falls into this category.