Jeremy’s Spoken: Right on Target, Part 2

Last week we presented a case for using targets to help identify under-the-radar tight ends. Jeff King, Mercedes Lewis, and both of the Green Bay tight ends were noted as players to take a look at while Ben Watson, Chris Cooley, and Heath Miller are players for whom you might want to slightly lower your expectations for the future.

Today, we’ll take a look at targets data for wide receivers in the hope of uncovering similar diamonds in the rough. Again, the fantasy points are based on a standard scoring system. (6 points for a TD, 1 for 10 yards receiving, and -3 for a fumble. No points are added for receptions).

Top 25 Wide Receivers by Targets

Player	Targets per Game	Targets	Receptions
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. WR CIN	15	58	39
Mason, Derrick WR BAL	13	50	33
Johnson, Chad WR CIN	12	48	28
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI	11	45	26
Chambers, Chris WR MIA	11	44	23
Driver, Donald WR GB	10	41	27
Berrian, Bernard WR CHI	10	41	24
Williams, Roy WR DET	10	40	26
Owens, Terrell WR DAL	10	38	19
Smith, Steve WR CAR	9	37	21
Cotchery, Jerricho WR NYJ	9	36	26
Moss, Randy WR NE	9	34	31
Burress, Plaxico WR NYG	9	34	19
Curtis, Kevin WR PHI	9	34	19
Coles, Laveranues WR NYJ	9	34	24
Colston, Marques WR NO	9	26	18
Edwards, Braylon WR CLE	8	33	18
Marshall, Brandon WR DEN	8	33	20
Branch, Deion WR SEA	8	33	20
Holt, Torry WR STL	8	33	23
Boldin, Anquan WR ARI	8	32	22
Wayne, Reggie WR IND	8	31	21
McDonald, Shaun WR DET	8	31	21
Jackson, Darrell WR SF	8	31	14
Welker, Wes WR NE	8	30	23

The Bengals boast 2 of the top 3 targeted wide receivers in the NFL. That itself is not surprising. What may surprise some people, however, is the fact that TJ Houshmandzadeh has been targeted more than superstar Chad Johnson. This is a change from 2006 when Johnson (152) was targeted more than Houshmandzadeh (132). But TJ has become Carson Palmer’s security blanket. Although he’s only averaging 9.2 yards per catch, TJ is on pace for an astounding 156 catches on 232 targets which would set an NFL record.

Shying away from all Chicago offensive players after their horrible start to the season? It’s time to consider trading for Bernard Berrian. He’s been targeted 10 times per game, the same amount as Donald Driver and Roy Williams and more than Terrell Owens and Steve Smith. Not only that, but he’s caught nearly 60% of passes thrown his way. And he’s done this with the 2^nd coming of Ryan Leaf throwing him the ball. Berrian is on pace for 96 catches and 1280 yards. Imagine what he’ll do if Chicago ever gets their running game and offensive line problems figured out.

Pop quiz: Which of these numbers is not like the other: 2, 4, 11, 2? Those are the number of catches that Kevin Curtis has had during each of the 1^st 4 weeks this year. Clearly, his huge week 3 looks like an aberration. Take note, however, that these are the number of times he has been targeted in each of those week: 5, 11, 14, 4. Keep in mind that Donovan McNabb had no time to throw to anyone without all-pros Tra Thomas and Brian Westbrook during the Eagles week 4 loss to the Giants. Stay away while those guys are injured but expect Curtis’ numbers to pick up when they are healthy again.

Laveranues Coles is the Jets’ #1 receiver, right? Not according to how often he is targeted by his quarterback. Jericho Cotchery is following up on his breakout 2006 in a big way. He has been targeted 36 times this season compared to Coles’ 34. He is on pace for 104 receptions on 144 targets and more than 1500 yards. Coles has caught 4 TDs to Cotchery’s 0 but Jericho has been the big play guy in the Jets offense, averaging nearly 15 yards per catch. His huge week 2 game (7 receptions, 165 yards) with Kellen Clemens at the helm gives reason to think he could be even better if the Jets make a permanent change.

Finally, for those in deep leagues, here is a lesser-known player that should be available in your league and who just missed the top 25. Bobby Wade is owned in only 5% of CBS Sportsline leagues yet he’s averaging 6 targets per game and is on pace for 100 targets and 60 catches. Sure, his QB situation is terrible. But if you’re in a deep league and in need of a bye-week replacement, he’s not a bad option.

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Jeremy Mittler, M.B.A., is a Strategy and Statistical Expert at SportsJudge.com. His column, Jeremy's Spoken, appears on Thursdays at SportsJudge Blog.

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