Jeremy’s Spoken: Playoff Matchup Madness, Part 2

Last time we took a look at playoff matchups for running backs. We saw that Ryan Grant is most likely to be this year’s playoff hero with matchups again Oakland, St. Louis, and Chicago during the playoffs (weeks 14-16).

This week, we’ll look at the matchups for quarterbacks and receivers. Again, we’ll use Football Outsider’s DVOA against the pass to evaluate playoff matchups.

The table below lists the week 14-16 opponents for every team, the defensive receiving DVOA (through week 13), and the total for the 3 weeks. Those at the top have the easiest rushing schedule while those at the bottom have the hardest.

Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmanzadeh, Braylon Edwards, and Joey Galloway lead this list for wideouts. As do their QBs Carson Palmer, Derek Anderson, and Jeff Garcia (if healthy). None of these names should surprise you and all should be starts every week anyway (except perhaps Garcia).

For low-cost options, try Kurt Warner. He’s coming off a near 500 yard effort last week and has tasty matchups against Seattle, New Orleans, and Atlanta during the playoffs. If you need a low-cost receiving option, try Roddy White. He’s been the only bright spot on a dreadful Atlanta team this year, managed to somehow have a good game against the top-ranked pass defense of the Colts in week 13, and has games against the Saints, Bucs, and Cardinals coming up.

It would also be wise to scale back expectations for the Jon Kitna-lead passing attack of the Lions as they face Dallas, San Diego, and Kansas City during the playoffs. The same can be said for Andre Johnson. Of course, any of these players can have big games, but DVOA tells us that it is less likely to happen. If you play the percentages, you’ll put yourself in good position to take that elusive championship crown.

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Jeremy Mittler, M.B.A., is a Strategy and Statistical Expert at SportsJudge.com. His column, Jeremy's Spoken, appears on Thursdays at SportsJudge Blog.

Jeremy’s Spoken: Playoff Matchup Madness

Billy Volek. Remember him? He’s the guy that came out of nowhere to start for an injured Steve McNair in 2004 and put up electric numbers. Those of you that picked him up during the year were rewarded with 918 yards, 8 TD, and 1 INT in weeks 14 and 15, or what is typically the 1^st two weeks of the fantasy football playoffs. He led some people to their league championship game. Unfortunately, he followed that up with a clunker: 8 for 20, 111 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT in week 16.

What was the difference? Matchups. Clearly we know that Volek was no Tom Brady as his career came to a screeching halt the following year. But in weeks 14 and 15 Volek faced the very weak pass defenses of the Chiefs and Raiders while in week 17 he faced the Broncos, a unit that ended the year in the top 10 in overall defense.

Who is this year’s Billy Volek? Keep reading to find out…

While some websites examine the matchups that players have using traditional statistics, we are going to use defensive rushing and receiving DVOA from Football Outsiders. I will save my detailed evaluation of their nontraditional statistics for another day. For now, I will state that overall, DVOA is a valuable and nontraditional way to look that the true value of teams (note that this may not hold true for individual players).

The table below lists the week 14-16 opponents for every team, the defensive rushing DVOA (through week 11), and the total for the 3 weeks. Those at the top have the easiest rushing schedule while those at the bottom have the hardest.

Clearly you should be targeting those RBs at the top of this list. Ryan Grant, Jamal Lewis, Ernest Graham, LenDale White, and Willis McGahee are all excellent trade targets. None are going to cost what a big name would and all have the potential to carry you during the fantasy playoffs. Similarly, you should look to trade Jesse Chatman, Clinton Portis, Cedric Benson (like we had to tell you that already), and Steven Jackson.

Clinton Portis for Ryan Grant? Steven Jackson for Ernest Graham? On the surface it sounds like these are lopsided trades. They likely would turn out to be lopsided; just not the way you might think.

So who is this year’s Billy Volek? My money is on Ryan Grant. He’s the unquestioned starter on a good offense with a great QB and passing attack that every team is trying to stop. Add in his easy schedule during he playoffs and he just might lead your team to a championship.

Next week we’ll take a look at the best schedule for quarterbacks and wide receivers.

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Jeremy Mittler, M.B.A., is a Strategy and Statistical Expert at SportsJudge.com. His column, Jeremy's Spoken, appears on Thursdays at SportsJudge Blog.

Jeremy’s Spoken: Mid-Season Strategy: Keeper Leagues

We’re back after missing last week’s Jeremy’s Spoken column and ready to roll for week 10. Today we’ll pick up where we left off and discuss mid-season strategies for keeper leagues.

As is the case with redraft leagues, you’ll want to begin by evaluating where you stand. Standings are, of course, the primary means to assess your potential for the rest of the season, but they do not always tell the whole story. See last week’s article (http://sportsjudge.blogspot.com/2007/10/jeremys-spoken-mid-season-strategy.html) for a review of how to assess where your team stands. That process will be the same in redraft and keeper leagues. The goal is to decide if you’re going to play for next year or try to win it all.

Playing for Next Year

You’ve decided that you have the worst team ever assembled in fantasy football history so it’s time to deal for next year. The first step is to rank your keepers. If you’re limited (I can only keep 5 each year in one of my leagues), your goal is to try and upgrade as much as possible. Start with #5, your worst keeper. Deal anyone and everyone that you need to to try and get better. If you have anyone else left over with any type of value, trade for draft picks if you are allowed to.

Some people argue that lower-level draft picks are worthless and aren’t willing to deal any players for picks lower than a certain round. That’s garbage. Every pick is valuable. Just think about the good players that have been picked up since the start of the season that were never drafted.

The bottom line is that you should be very active until your league’s trading deadline passes, especially if you have a limit to the number of keepers. If you are allowed 5 keepers, for example, you will ideally end up with 5 studs and waiver wire trash for the rest of the year, plus a handful of picks. That is your goal.

Going for the Gold

This is the position you want to be in each year. You are either at the top of the standings or in the middle of the race with a promising team for the next 8 weeks. Depending on how confident you are, you should be assuming different levels of risk

Lowering Your Risk

My friend Adam is 9-0 and has Tom Brady on his team, along with strong wide receivers and tight ends. His goal, therefore, is to prepare for the playoffs. He is trying to work trade avenues and the waiver wire to try and protect himself from injuries during the playoffs. He is also trying to ensure that each position on his team has great matchups during the playoffs.

This latter strategy works especially well for defenses which can usually be acquired on the cheap. For example, I have the Patriots defense in one league. A sure fire start each week, right? Perhaps. But they face the Steelers in week 1 of my playoffs and I like having options. I can either hang onto the surprising Chiefs DST (who play the Broncos in week 14) or pick up the Bills improving DST (who play the Dolphins).

Increasing Your Risk

Suppose you are right in the thick of the playoff race, perhaps even fighting for a spot. You think that if you were to get in, you’d have a decent shot. You should be taking on more risk, trying to trade for players with high upside for the final weeks. Selvin Young, Priest Holmes / Kolby Smith, and Javon Walker at WR are players that come to mind as examples of high risk but high upside players for the final weeks of the season.

The more confident you are in your chances of winning, the more you should be trading away your keepers in deals that can help you now. In one league, I am on the playoff bubble so I am unwilling to mortgage my future. However, needing a QB, I traded a 6^th round pick (with 5 keepers it’s equivalent to an 11^th round pick) for Kurt Warner. I picked up a QB with great receivers and a very favorable schedule for very little. If I were more confident in my chances, I would have been shopping my stud keeper, Michael Turner, instead.

Deal from a Strength

Similar to our advice from the last article, you want to deal from your strengths. However, in keeper leagues, your strength may be different than in redraft leagues. If you have players that are worth little now but have keeper potential you should be looking to deal these for help now (again, depending on your confidence level). And of course, if there are quality players that you don’t plan to start during the playoffs, you should be looking to deal these for help at weaker positions.

Examine the Schedule

Also similar to our advice from last time, examine the schedule. The NFL schedule during the fantasy playoffs can play a huge role in the outcome of your season. Trade for players with favorable schedules and deal those with unfavorable matchups. Strength of schedule is usually a very underutilized piece of information in evaluating future performance.

The bottom line is to be active working both the waiver wire and all trade possibilities. Leave no stone unturned—every pick and every player has value. If there are players that won’t help you this year, try to transfer that value to the future in the form of better keepers or draft pick.

Next time we’ll take a look at good and bad trading strategies to help in your final push.

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Jeremy Mittler, M.B.A., is a Strategy and Statistical Expert at SportsJudge.com. His column, Jeremy's Spoken, appears on Thursdays at SportsJudge Blog.

Jeremy’s Spoken: Mid-Season Strategy: Redraft Leagues

It’s week 8 in the NFL which means it’s the midpoint of the season. For fantasy footballers in redraft leagues that means it’s time to take stock of your team and either gear up for the stretch run or begin to focus on your fantasy basketball league. In this edition of Jeremy’s Spoken we’ll provide some tips for evaluating your team for the rest of the season and tactics to help you prepare for the playoffs. We’re going to focus on redraft leagues. Next week we’ll look at keeper leagues which is a more complex task.

Where do you stand?

Obviously the standings play a major role here in determining your strategy for the rest of the season. If you’re 7-0 you can probably write your ticket to the playoffs. If you’re 0-7, you probably have little chance to do much except for the occasional fluke week.

But records can be deceiving. You need to thoroughly examine your roster with the next 9 weeks in mind. Are you off to a bad start but have Andre Johnson and Selvin Young on your roster? You’re in better shape than you think. Or perhaps you’re off to a great start but that was driven by Travis Henry and Ronnie Brown. You’ll be in a lot of trouble come playoff time.

When assessing your team, try to forget about the past 7 weeks. Sure, you can use performance to get a good idea of how well your players will do during the rest of the season. But schedule differences, injuries, and just plain luck also play a huge role in determining how much success you’ll have.

After considering all of these factors, you’ll want to come up with a rough estimate of how much risk you’re going to need to take on to have a chance of winning the championship.

Lowering Your Risk

If you’re 7-0 or 6-1 and relatively healthy, you’ll want to lower your risk. This may mean that no trades are needed but not necessarily. It could mean making small deals to protect yourself or scanning the waiver wire for backups to your studs. For example, suppose you have LaDanian Tomlinson but someone else has Michael Turner. In a redraft league, Turner’s value is nonexistent unless LT2 gets injured. However, if that were to occur, you’d surely be in big trouble. If you’re strong at WR, offer a backup from your team for Turner.

Increasing Your Risk

If you’ve had a poor season to date or had to deal with major injuries, your prospects may not look so good for the remainder of the year. You have nothing to lose by taking on risk and trying to gamble a bit more than your competitors.

A good example would be to trade for Travis Henry. In all likelihood he will not play during the fantasy playoffs which probably has his owner very worried. You should be able to swing a reasonable trade for him. If he ends up being suspended, well, you likely weren’t going to do well anyway. If not, you’ve made out like a bandit. You can follow a similar strategy with injured players (i.e. trade for Ben Watson, David Garrard, Andre Johnson).

Deal from a Strength

Think about what your starting lineup will look like during the playoff weeks. You might have your 2 or 3 starting RB set but might be planning on playing both of your QBs based on matchups. Anyone that is not in your plans for the playoffs should be trade bait unless you have a specific reason to keep them (i.e. keeping a backup RB as a handcuff). Try to offer these players along with your weakest starters for upgrades at those weak positions. Focus your trading efforts with teams that have a need at a position where you are strong.

My friend Adam is in a league where you have to roster 2 QB, 4 RB, 4 WR, 2 TE, 2 K, and 2 DST. He has Kellen Winslow and Heath Miller, both starting-caliber tight ends. With both having passed their bye weeks and only needing to start 1 each week, he is in position to deal one of them for RB help, where has only Kenny Watson and Michael Bennett.

Examine the Schedule

The NFL schedule during the fantasy playoffs can play a huge role in the outcome of your season. The guys at Football Outsiders just did a similar exercise. Their Buy Low, Sell High column from October 24^th outlines a few players to buy or sell based on their matchups the rest of the way. Trade for players with favorable schedules and deal those with unfavorable matchups. Strength of schedule is usually a very underutilized piece of information in evaluating future performance.

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Jeremy Mittler, M.B.A., is a Strategy and Statistical Expert at SportsJudge.com. His column, Jeremy's Spoken, appears on Thursdays at SportsJudge Blog.

Jeremy’s Spoken: Catch Rate, Part 2

Last week we took a look at Catch Rate (CR) as a way to try and identify undervalued wide receivers. Today we’ll examine CR for tight ends.

The number following each player is their CR this year. The numbers in parentheses are that player’s catch rate from each of the 2 previous seasons.

Catching on

• Ben Watson – 90% (54%, 54%): Look at the leap in CR from the previous 2 seasons! The only thing keeping Watson from being as good as Antonio Gates is his lack of targets (as noted in this column previously). In fact, if you project his numbers this year based on the number of times Gates has been thrown to (54) you end up with 48 catches for 599 yards. I would expect he’d have more than his 5 TDs as well making him the new Antonio Gates. The Patriots just have too many weapons for him to be a focal point of the offense. If Randy Moss ever gets hurt…well, you get the idea.
• Antonio Gates – 80% (59%, 64%): Simply the best. His 80% catch rate is better than his last 2 years. If he can keep this up, he could shatter TE receiving records this year.
• Donald Lee – 76% (48%, 60%): Clearly Brett Favre’s best TE target. Although he’s been targeted the same number of times as his TE mate Bubba Franks, he’s catching 50% more passes than Franks. With Franks out, Lee could shine in Green Bay’s passing-heavy attack.

Catch me if you can

• Bo Scaife – 50% (52%, 67%): Vince Young’s teammate in college and many people’s sleeper TE this season hasn’t lived up to the hype. Part of this can be attributed to Vince Young’s accuracy issues but as long as he’s only being targeted 4 times per game and catching half of those targets, he’s not worthy of a roster spot on your team.
• Bubba Franks – 52% (47%, 67%): It’s interesting that his TE partner in Green Bay is catching everything that Brett Favre throws his way, while Franks is struggling. Before his knee injury he was only averaging 6.4 yards per reception when he was hanging onto the ball. Drop him from your team.
• Jeremy Shockey – 56% (57%, 53%): Shockey seemingly drops at least 1 key pass every game and these numbers back it up. He’s been an overrated fantasy TE for years and won’t live up to his potential until he can hang onto more passes.

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Jeremy Mittler, M.B.A., is a Strategy and Statistical Expert at SportsJudge.com. His column, Jeremy's Spoken, appears on Thursdays at SportsJudge Blog.

Jeremy’s Spoken: Catch Me If You Can

The last two weeks we looked at targets to try and find some hidden gems among wide receivers and tight ends. Today, we’ll look at the target’s cousin—catch rate. Simply, a receiver’s catch rate (or CR) is the number of catches as a percentage of targets. Combined with targets data, we can get a good idea of how productive a receiver is.

According to Pro Football Prospectus, a study of catch rate shows that receivers have a definite impact on incomplete passes. This logic differs from conventional wisdom whereby the quarterback shoulders most of the blame for an incomplete pass. In general, receivers that run longer routes will have a lower catch rate. The league average is approximately 60%

Now on to the data. The number following the player’s name is their current catch rate for 2007. The numbers in parentheses represent the player’s catch rate from the past two years.

Catching On – Wide Receivers with a High Catch Rate

• Randy Moss - 81% (43%, 48%): This guy is simply incredible. Look at the difference in CR between the last two years and 2007. Apparently having an accurate quarterback can make a world of difference. The 81% catch rate is 2^nd best in the league among those with 20 or more targets. To catch 81% of passes thrown his way and average more than 16 yards a catch is amazing. If he doesn’t continue his dominance and finish 2007 as the best fantasy wide receiver, I will be shocked.
• Wes Welker - 75% (67%, 56%): Hmm, I wonder what he has in common with Moss that results in his #4 ranking in catch rate. The 67% CR from 2006 means that he should keep up his current pace as long as Brady keeps looking his way (7 targets per game to date). His 9.7 YPC average is more in line with what one would expect from a player with such a high CR.
• Antwaan Randle El - 72% (51%, 50%): Although his 2007 CR looks like an aberration, he cought 68% of the passes thrown his way in 2004. Jason Campbell’s accuracy has only been average in his brief career. Combined with an 18.8 YPC average and the likely return of Santana Moss to the lineup, it’s likely that Randle El’s production will drop-off in the coming weeks.
• Bobby Engram – 68% (67%, 69%): Talk about Mr. Consistency. He’s already being targeted more than 5 times per game and now he becomes a starter with Deion Branch on the sidelines. Expect his next few weeks to be very productive.
• Michael Jenkins – 67% and Roddy White – 66% (47%, 51% and 47%, 43%, respectively): Both of these receivers have been criticized early in their careers for having a severe case of the dropsies. The early results this year, however, show that they both may have turned the corner. Joey Harrington has completed 67% of his passes (a big jump from his past seasons) which may mean Bobby Petrino’s offense deserves a large part of the credit. White in particular may finally be realizing his potential after glowing off-season and training camp reports of his improved concentration and confidence. The fact that he is averaging 17 YPC along with his CR is astounding. The only thing holding these guys back is their offensive line and quarterback.

Catch My Disease – Wide Receivers with a Low Catch Rate

• Drew Bennett – 33% (47%, 53%): Ugh. He has caught just 8 of 24 balls thrown his way. Stepping in as a starter last week (for the injured Isaac Bruce) didn’t help as he caught just 2 passes (although 1 was a TD). With injuries to his QB and the offensive line and a history of low CR, one would be wise to stay away.
• Reggie Brown – 36% (50%, 51%): So much for the anticipated 3^rd year breakout. Brown has caught only 8 of 22 passes targeted for him. Donovan McNabb has never been an accurate passer so temper your expectations.
• Terrell Owens – 45% (56%, 51%): It’s no surprise that T.O. is on this list, given his history of drops. He makes up for his stone hands with a whopping 18.5 YPC average and loads of touchdowns. However, the fact that he is on the bottom of this list while Randy Moss is at the top should end any discussion of the two of them being in the same class of receiver.
• Chris Chambers – 52% (39%, 49%): His 52% CR is the highest of his career which says quite a bit about how overrated Chambers has been throughout his career. With Trent Green out for the year, expect Chambers’ already low catch rate to decline even further. Yes, he is targeted often (48 times through 5 games) and can make the ESPN highlight reel on occasion, but it’s time to dump Chambers once and for all.
• Lee Evans – 39% (60%, 53%): So far, Evans has been one of the biggest disappointments of 2007. Yet he managed to catch 60% of the passes thrown his way last year with J.P. Losman at the helm. With an improving running game and Losman due back soon, expect Evans to pick up his game. Stick with him if you own him or target him in a trade if you can acquire him at a discount. Likely to rebound.

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Jeremy Mittler, M.B.A., is a Strategy and Statistical Expert at SportsJudge.com. His column, Jeremy's Spoken, appears on Thursdays at SportsJudge Blog.

Jeremy’s Spoken: Right on Target, Part 2

Last week we presented a case for using targets to help identify under-the-radar tight ends. Jeff King, Mercedes Lewis, and both of the Green Bay tight ends were noted as players to take a look at while Ben Watson, Chris Cooley, and Heath Miller are players for whom you might want to slightly lower your expectations for the future.

Today, we’ll take a look at targets data for wide receivers in the hope of uncovering similar diamonds in the rough. Again, the fantasy points are based on a standard scoring system. (6 points for a TD, 1 for 10 yards receiving, and -3 for a fumble. No points are added for receptions).

Top 25 Wide Receivers by Targets

Player	Targets per Game	Targets	Receptions
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. WR CIN	15	58	39
Mason, Derrick WR BAL	13	50	33
Johnson, Chad WR CIN	12	48	28
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI	11	45	26
Chambers, Chris WR MIA	11	44	23
Driver, Donald WR GB	10	41	27
Berrian, Bernard WR CHI	10	41	24
Williams, Roy WR DET	10	40	26
Owens, Terrell WR DAL	10	38	19
Smith, Steve WR CAR	9	37	21
Cotchery, Jerricho WR NYJ	9	36	26
Moss, Randy WR NE	9	34	31
Burress, Plaxico WR NYG	9	34	19
Curtis, Kevin WR PHI	9	34	19
Coles, Laveranues WR NYJ	9	34	24
Colston, Marques WR NO	9	26	18
Edwards, Braylon WR CLE	8	33	18
Marshall, Brandon WR DEN	8	33	20
Branch, Deion WR SEA	8	33	20
Holt, Torry WR STL	8	33	23
Boldin, Anquan WR ARI	8	32	22
Wayne, Reggie WR IND	8	31	21
McDonald, Shaun WR DET	8	31	21
Jackson, Darrell WR SF	8	31	14
Welker, Wes WR NE	8	30	23

The Bengals boast 2 of the top 3 targeted wide receivers in the NFL. That itself is not surprising. What may surprise some people, however, is the fact that TJ Houshmandzadeh has been targeted more than superstar Chad Johnson. This is a change from 2006 when Johnson (152) was targeted more than Houshmandzadeh (132). But TJ has become Carson Palmer’s security blanket. Although he’s only averaging 9.2 yards per catch, TJ is on pace for an astounding 156 catches on 232 targets which would set an NFL record.

Shying away from all Chicago offensive players after their horrible start to the season? It’s time to consider trading for Bernard Berrian. He’s been targeted 10 times per game, the same amount as Donald Driver and Roy Williams and more than Terrell Owens and Steve Smith. Not only that, but he’s caught nearly 60% of passes thrown his way. And he’s done this with the 2^nd coming of Ryan Leaf throwing him the ball. Berrian is on pace for 96 catches and 1280 yards. Imagine what he’ll do if Chicago ever gets their running game and offensive line problems figured out.

Pop quiz: Which of these numbers is not like the other: 2, 4, 11, 2? Those are the number of catches that Kevin Curtis has had during each of the 1^st 4 weeks this year. Clearly, his huge week 3 looks like an aberration. Take note, however, that these are the number of times he has been targeted in each of those week: 5, 11, 14, 4. Keep in mind that Donovan McNabb had no time to throw to anyone without all-pros Tra Thomas and Brian Westbrook during the Eagles week 4 loss to the Giants. Stay away while those guys are injured but expect Curtis’ numbers to pick up when they are healthy again.

Laveranues Coles is the Jets’ #1 receiver, right? Not according to how often he is targeted by his quarterback. Jericho Cotchery is following up on his breakout 2006 in a big way. He has been targeted 36 times this season compared to Coles’ 34. He is on pace for 104 receptions on 144 targets and more than 1500 yards. Coles has caught 4 TDs to Cotchery’s 0 but Jericho has been the big play guy in the Jets offense, averaging nearly 15 yards per catch. His huge week 2 game (7 receptions, 165 yards) with Kellen Clemens at the helm gives reason to think he could be even better if the Jets make a permanent change.

Finally, for those in deep leagues, here is a lesser-known player that should be available in your league and who just missed the top 25. Bobby Wade is owned in only 5% of CBS Sportsline leagues yet he’s averaging 6 targets per game and is on pace for 100 targets and 60 catches. Sure, his QB situation is terrible. But if you’re in a deep league and in need of a bye-week replacement, he’s not a bad option.

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Jeremy Mittler, M.B.A., is a Strategy and Statistical Expert at SportsJudge.com. His column, Jeremy's Spoken, appears on Thursdays at SportsJudge Blog.

Jeremy's Spoken: Right on Target

I’m very liberal when it comes to fantasy sports. As you would expect from any liberal, I try to be an advocate for those in the minority. Today I’m going to discuss a minority in the world of fantasy football statistics: Targets.

A target is simply a pass that is intended for a specific player. Obviously, the more often a player is targeted, the more chances he has for a catch and the greater the opportunity for a big gain or a score. Although it was introduced a few years ago, it is only now beginning to be reported to the general football fan. Note, however, that because targets are recorded by different sources, the data can vary depending on the data source used. CBS Sportsline now reports targets in its standard stats database and is available for anyone whose league is managed by their League Manager service. As such, we’ll use their data for our discussion today. On to the data:

Correlation with Fantasy Points, Standard Scoring

Targets	Receptions	Yards	Average	TD
0.83	0.88	0.96	0.22	0.89

The table above shows the correlation between each of the statistics and total fantasy points. (The points are based on a standard scoring system with 6 points for a TD, 1 for 10 yards receiving, and -3 for a fumble. No points are added for receptions). While yards, touchdowns, and receptions are all more highly correlated with fantasy success, the number of targets is not far behind. At the very least, we can use targets to help us distinguish between otherwise similar players.

After 3 weeks of the season, we will use it to play the waiver wire, hoping to find lesser-known players that have become an important parts of their team’s offense.

Top 15 Tight Ends by Targets

Player	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Avg	TD	FL	FPTS
Gates, Antonio TE SD	33	27	297	11	2	0	51
Shockey, Jeremy TE NYG	28	15	180	12	0	0	23
Winslow, Kellen TE CLE	26	16	271	16.9	1	0	41
Witten, Jason TE DAL	21	14	233	16.6	2	0	42
Clark, Dallas TE IND	21	13	175	13.5	2	0	35
Gonzalez, Tony TE KC	21	16	167	10.4	0	0	20
Heap, Todd TE BAL	20	15	165	11	1	0	27
Johnson, Eric TE NO	20	16	98	6.1	0	0	12
King, Jeff TE CAR	18	13	130	10	1	0	22
Lee, Donald TE GB	16	12	106	8.8	1	0	18
Crumpler, Alge TE ATL	15	13	156	12	1	0	26
Franks, Bubba TE GB	15	7	42	6	2	0	16
Daniels, Owen TE HOU	15	13	128	9.8	0	1	12
Davis, Vernon TE SF	15	8	83	10.4	0	0	10
Lewis, Marcedes TE JAC	14	9	118	13.1	0	0	14

Of course some of the usual suspects are on here—Antonio Gates leads all tight ends in targets, as you would expect. Jeremy Shockey, Kellen Winslow, Jason Witten, and Dallas Clark round out the top 5, none of whom are surprises.

But there are a few intriguing names on here. Add me to the Jeff King bandwagon. King is being targeted 6 times per game. To put that in perspective, it is the same number of targets as Hines Ward, Vincent Jackson, and Calvin Johnson and more than Joey Galloway, Santonio Holmes, and Reggie Brown. King is a borderline starter and a definite one during bye weeks. With Steve Smith stretching defenses and drawing double coverage, King is a prime target over the middle of the field.

Brett Favre has shown a propensity to throw to its tight ends early in the season. Both Donald Lee and Bubba Franks make the top 15 list. If one of them were to get hurt, it wouldn’t be a far reach to see the other pick up some targets and become a starting caliber fantasy tight end, especially given the success of Green Bay’s passing attack.

Finally, Mercedes Lewis has the talent to be a top tier tight end. Monitor his progress—one or two more targets per game could move him up to starter status and primed for a breakout at the end of 2007 or in 2008.

Noticeably absent from this list (number of targets in parentheses) are Chris Cooley (13), Heath Miller (12), and Ben Watson (10). Obviously, keep them in your lineup unless you have a better option. But temper your expectations for their performance until they become a larger part of their team’s passing offense.

Next week we’ll take a look at targets data for wide receivers. Stay tuned.

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Jeremy Mittler, M.B.A., is a Strategy and Statistical Expert at SportsJudge.com. His column, Jeremy's Spoken, appears on Thursdays at SportsJudge Blog.