Friday, November 9, 2007

Matt's Stats: Week 10 NFL Preview

Its hard to believe but in most Fantasy leagues, there are only 4 weeks left in the regular season. Here are all your players and picks for Week 10 of the National Football League:

"Sleeping" on the Job:

1) Priest Holmes (RB, Kansas City Chiefs) - No this is not a misprint, and no you did not go back in time to 2003. If you are lucky enough to be in a league where Priest is still available, pick him up immediately! Depending on who you listen to Larry Johnson will either be out for the season or out for just a week or two, but no matter which one is right, one thing is for sure, LJ will be missing some time. It is rare this late in the year you can get a starter off the waiver wire and here is your chance.

2) Kolby Smith (RB, Kansas City Chiefs) - This is more of a true "sleeper" in the sense of the name. Smith was a 5th round draft pick this year with 0 career rush yards and 21 career receiving yards. Herm Edwards loves to run the ball and has said that Holmes will have to share carries. If you missed out on Holmes (only still available in 13% of CBS leagues) take a flier on Smith. Smith is available in 70 percent of leagues, will get his carries, and Holmes is very injury prone. This all equals a solid late season pick in Kolby Smith if you need a RB.

"Play" or "Stay Away":

QB - Play Jason Campbell (QB, Washington Redskins). Campbell plays an Eagles team this week that appears to have given up. The Eagles are coming off of an embarrassing 38-17 loss to the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, and things look like they will only get worse. Looking to benefit from this, Campbell gets to play Philly's beat up defense at home, after already beating them in Philly and totally 209 Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, with 39 Rushing Yards. All of this adds up to make it an excellent week to give Jason Campbell a Fantasy start.

Stay away from Donovan McNabb (QB, Philadelphia Eagles). I hate to use the same game but this is a horrible matchup for McNabb. Last week against Dallas he had 1 TD and 2 INT and now plays against a Redskin team, currently ranked 10th in defense, who is in need of a big divisional win to stay close to the playoff picture. Stay away from McNabb and look elsewhere at QB this week if you can.

RB - Play Deshaun Foster (RB, Carolina Panthers) against the Falcons this week. Foster has not had that great of a season but he always does well against Atlanta. The Falcons are only ranked 23rd in the league against the run and Foster has totalled 100 yards in 4 of his last 5 games against Atlanta. This includes Foster's only 100 yard game of the 2007 season, in Week 3 when he had 122 Yards and 1 TD. Look for a big day from Foster and play him, you may not get another chance the rest of the year.

Stay away from Edgerrin James (RB, Arizona Cardinals). James is having a nice comeback year (ranking 3rd in NFC with 618 Yards), but stay away from him in Week 10 against Detroit. Edge has been consistent but does not have a 100 yard game since Week 2. Detroit's defense has been improving and is a big reason for their 6-2 record. They currently rank 12th against the run. James will be good down the stretch for your team, but stay away this week if you have other options.

WR - Play Greg Jennings (WR, Green Bay Packers). Jennings has been hot lately with 226 Receiving Yards and 3 TDs in his last 2 games, both on the road. Jennings will get to return to Lambeau in Week 10 and faces a Vikings defense, that while very good against the run, is horrible against the pass. The Vikings are giving up a league high 291.2 receiving yards per game and there is no reason to think that it won't continue. Play Jennings this week and expect 100-125 yards and 1-2 TDs.

Stay Away from Roy Williams (WR, Detroit Lions). Williams does not have any TDs or 100 yard games since his Week 3 204 Yard, 1 TD performance against Philly. The Lions are winning more then usual, but they are doing it through a very balanced attack. They face the Cardinals in Week 10 who are ranked 9th in the league in receiving yards against with 211.4. Expect the Lions to play well, but to do it with a lot of rushing. Stay away from Williams if you have other options.

Survival of the Fittest:

If the Colts didn't collapse at the end of the game to New England my winning streak would be intact, but as it is I was 1-1 last week (Win with Redskins) and an impressive 8-2 on the season.
This week the pick is the Buffalo Bills to win over the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins will win eventually but this is not the week. Losman and Evans are back as playmakers and the Bills shouldn't have trouble getting the win leading up to the big Sunday Night matchup next week with New England. Who would have thought it, but after an 0-3 start to the season the Buffalo Bills will have a winning record at 5-4 with a win this week.

Have a Great Week 10!!

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Marc Edelman said...

Regarding sleepers, I am okay with the Buffalo Bills pick even though this team is on the road (something that generally scares me) and JP Losman may be back (something that scares me even more).

I am not, however, completely secure in this pick. Therefore, I am splitting choices between my two survivor teams (both 9-0). I'm going with the Bills in one, and the New Orleans Saints in the other. That way, I have two bites at the apple.