Saturday, December 15, 2007

Matt's Stats: Week 15 NFL Preview

I hope you are still alive as Round 2 of the Playoffs rolls around this Sunday. As you look to advance to the Championship here are all your players and picks for Week 15 in the National Football League.

"Play" or "Stay Away":

QB - Play Derek Anderson (QB, Cleveland Browns). Anderson has a streak of 3 consecutive weeks of 2 TDs and look for that to continue this week. This is the biggest game for the Browns since 2002 and they are going against a Bills defense that ranks 28th in the NFL against the pass. Expect the first 3 TD game for Anderson since Week 10 and at least 300 Yards.

Stay away from David Garrard (QB, Jacksonville Jaguars). At 13 TD and only 1 INT for the season, Garrard has been a very serviceable starter, but this is not the week to use him. Garrard is playing at Pittsburgh in a game the Steelers have to win. If you add in the fact that the Steelers give up the second least passing yards per game in the NFL, you get a very risky start if you own Garrard.

RB - Play Frank Gore (RB, San Francisco 49ers). Like many of this years first rounders, Gore has been disappointing. Expect Gore to finally give you the production this week that you were expecting when you drafted him. He will be playing on National TV for one of the only times this year and will be against a bad Bengals team (ranked 23rd against the run). Look for Gore to find the endzone and get to 100 yards for the first time in 3 games.

Stay away from Justin Fargas (RB, Oakland Raiders). Fargas is having a career year (920 Rushing Yards and 3 TDs) but is against a Colts team that is getting on a roll. The Colts are average against the run (Ranked 17th in the NFL), but they should be well ahead of Oakland most of the game, forcing the Raiders to pass. Stay away from Fargas this week if you can.

WR - Play all Patriots WRs (Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney). The Patriots are going up against their spygate enemies in the Jets and will be putting up a lot of points. Don't get scared off by the weather report (snow is expected in Foxboro), the Pats will still be passing and they will still be getting TDs. Any of these 4 WRs are worthy of starts this week.

Stay away from Derrick Mason (WR, Baltimore Ravens). Mason, even on the very poor Baltimore offense, has totalled 872 Receiving Yards and 3 TDs, making him a very decent Flex player in most leagues. Look elsewhere this week, however, because the Ravens offense is going against a Dolphins team desperate for a win and giving up the second least receiving yards per game in the NFL. I actually think the Dolphins have a shot to get the first win of the season here, but if Baltimore can pull it out it'll be because they ride the run to victory. Stay away from Mason this week.

Survivor of the Fittest:

It was another win last week with the picks, as the Jaguars helped me push my record to 12-3 for the season. It's normally not a great idea to go with road teams but the pick here is the Seattle Seahawks on the road over the Carolina Panthers. Seattle is getting healthy and they are playing their best ball of the season. Look for the Seahawks to get their 6th win in a row this week, rather easily over the Panthers.

Have a Great Week 15!!!

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