Welcome back to another exciting edition of The Puck Stops Here. With drafts still going strong, I want to focus on strategies for your own drafts. There are a few trends I have noticed in the numerous drafts I have done that you may be able to take advantage of.
Get a Stud Goaltender: It is a must to try and get one of the top tier goaltenders. Brodeur and Nabokov are at the head of the class but the top tier also includes Luongo, Fluery, Lundqvist, Giguere, Turco, Price and Osgood. Most include Kiprusoff in this tier, but his GAA and S% have gotten worse the last couple of years and I just don’t think his peripherals support a high ranking. After this top tier you really start to get question marks. You will have to spend one of your first 3 picks to get one of these goalies, but getting one is like getting a running back that is not in a time share or suffers from a goal line vulture. You need to have a goalie that will post strong peripherals, won’t be at risk of a timeshare and has a good team around him to get him wins. The goalies mentioned above fit these qualities and you need to build your goaltender position around one of the top tier goalies. If you are going to stretch for a player it should be a goaltender (See below).
Forwards are Very Deep: I saw Anze Kopitar last until the 10th round when I gladly welcomed him to one of my squads. Ales Hemsky was sitting there in the 12th round in a couple drafts. Someone please explain why I was able to pick up Teemu Selanne in the 18th round. Are people paying attention? The answer is yes and no. Sure, these were steals and won’t happen every time but I think it is a product of there being so much depth as well as top heavy groups of goalies and defensemen. There are specialists who can be found up and down the draft board. There were 62 forwards that had at least 25 goals last year, 45 forwards with at least 40 assists and nearly a dozen forwards who are ownable simply because they help so much in PIM without hurting you elsewhere. Don’t feel pressured into taking forwards, be patient and make the value pick. If you are going to stretch at any position, get a goalie (See above).
Don’t Stretch for Defense: There just is not enough of a disparity to warrant taking multiple defensemen within your top ten picks. I believe that the only defenseman worth reaching for is Phaneuf. He is the only defenseman that contributes across the board in all categories above the rest of the top tier of defensemen. Beyond Phaneuf the rest of the top tier defenseman don’t separate themselves from each other. They either will help you a lot offensively but not at all with PIM, will do the reverse or will simply post above average numbers in both. In a recent draft, I waited until the 8th round to take my first defenseman and was able to come away with Andrei Markov and then Brent Burns four rounds later. I feel much better than the guy who spent two of his top ten picks to come away with Zdeno Chara and Brian Campbell. In those rounds I drafted Brendan Morrow and Shane Doan. Both will out perform Chara and Campbell across the board and Markov isn’t much of a step down from either.
Don’t Forget the Question Marks: What do Mats Sundin, Teemu Selanne and Joe Sakic have in common? At the start of training camp, none of them were on an NHL roster (Selanne has since signed). All of them will play and will give you excellent numbers, they just don’t feel like going through all 82 games. People either forget these players exist or don’t want to take the risk. Where these players are currently being drafted, the reward is much too great to ignore. Selanne will give you a point-per-game with solid peripherals. After the tenth round there isn’t a player who will give you that type of production. The same can be said for Sundin and even more so for Sakic. Sakic will play for Colorado and will be surrounded by a lot of talent, we still have no idea where Sundin will play. The same holds true for guys like Rod Brind’Amour who lost last year to injuries but were very productive. Brind’Amour isn’t being drafted in many leagues and he will give you just under point-per-game and PIM per game production.
Don’t Chase the +/– Category: All the time I hear people saying, “great pick, he’ll save your +/–”. That is pure and utter garbage. Sure, there are players who excel both offensively and defensively, but the last time I checked hockey was a team game. Last season, Dan Boyle’s and Brad Richards’ +/– wasn’t bad because of them, it was bad because the team was bad. It is not just about offense or defense, a team has to be solid on each side or +/– will suffer. The only sure thing for +/– this year is the Red Wings. Every other team has either offensive or defensive questions that could limit a player’s +/–. Keep +/– in the back of your mind when drafting, but there are no +/– specialists, so don’t try and find the answer in one player. Try to make sure you get players from teams who you think will be in the playoff hunt. Chances are that those players will be the ones with good +/–.
As with any SportsJudge.com article, feel free to post a comment or question. Until next week, The Puck Stops Here.
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