Monday, November 10, 2008

Above the Rim: AI-Billups Trade

Last week’s trade between the Pistons and the Nuggets was the first major trade of the season and it should have consequences on the fantasy basketball world in addition to playoff ramifications. It will be interesting to see how Allen Iverson meshes with the more conservative Pistons offense, how Chauncey Billups will adjust to the Nuggets up tempo offense, and where Antonio McDyess will end up in the next month.

Chauncey Billups
Billups averaged 17 points and 6.8 assists per game last season, but he did so by taking only 11.2 shots per game. While Billups did not shoot well in his debut with the Nuggets, he also took 17 shots. The Nuggets averaged 110 points per game last year on almost 86 shots per night. The Pistons on the other hand averaged 97.5 points on 80 shots a night. The increased possessions, shots, and scoring should lead to more looks for Billups as a shooter, but also increased assists for Billups as the facilitator for George Karl’s fast paced offense. Billups should at least match his numbers from last season, but he could approach 20 ppg and 7-8 assists with the Nuggets. Allen Iverson scored over 26 points and contributed 7.2 assists per game for the Nuggets last year, and Billups should be able to take a large portion of those numbers. However, Billups will almost definitely not match AI’s numbers with the Nuggets. Carmelo Anthony may see an increase in his scoring now that he doesn’t have to share the ball with another prolific like Iverson. Billups’s style as a true point guard should mesh better with Anthony resulting in both increasing their productivity.

Allen Iverson
Iverson going to the Pistons should be interesting to watch. This will be the most conservative, slow-paced offense that he has ever been a part of, especially compared to his stay in Denver. It also will be one of the more balanced attacks he has played on. The Pistons won’t have to rely on AI to score 25-30 points per game for the team to win. The Pistons still have Rip Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace, and Tayshaun Prince, who are all capable of scoring 15-20 points per game, and Rodney Stuckey continues to emerge as a scorer. Iverson can adjust to playing in this offense, with many talented players around him. Not having to share the court with another high profile superstar like Anthony will probably help him as well. However, I would not be surprised if Iverson’s scoring dips below 25 points per game. This year, Iverson could be below 25 for the full season for the first time since he averaged 22 in 1997-1998, his second season in the league. If this happens, it will probably be a reflection on how well Iverson can adjust to his new team, not on his inability to play at a high level, but it may disappoint some fantasy owners. What Iverson loses in scoring, he may make up for in assists, however, as he will need to fill Billups shoes as the facilitator for Hamilton, Wallace, Prince, and Stuckey. I would expect Iverson to average at least 7 assists a night and he could wind up in the 8-9 range.

Antonio McDyess
McDyess is the most interesting player in this trade. He has stated that if he is bought out he would like to return to the Pistons, although he would have to wait 30 days to resign with them. The Nuggets had said they would like to keep him, but have since bought him out. With McDyess available, his agent has said that 19 teams have already contacted him. The two most intriguing to me are the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers. McDyess averaged 8.8 points and 8.5 rebounds per game for the Pistons last season, and both the Celtics and Cavs would be looking for similar production off the bench if they could land McDyess. He would fit in nicely with Leon Powe and Glen Davis in the big man rotation behind Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins in Boston. However, there are only so many minutes and shots to split between five capable post players. In Cleveland, however, the Cavs are looking for a big man to replace the recently traded Joe Smith. Smith averaged 8 points and 5 rebounds in the second half of the season for the Cavs, but no one has filled that role for the Cavs this season. The Cavs are essentially running a three big man rotation of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Ben Wallace, and Anderson Varejao, and both Wallace and Varejao are not scorers. McDyess could be the offensive post player that the Cavs need. He could approach 10 points and 7-8 boards if he signs with the Cavs. If he returns to the Pistons, I would expect about 7 points and 6-7 rebounds off the bench. McDyess averaged 8 points and 8 rebounds as a starter last season, but he would be in a reserve role this season.




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