Monday, December 22, 2008

Above the Rim: Larry Brown Starts Getting His Guys

It’s been almost 10 days since the Bobcats traded Jason Richardson and Jared Dudley to the Suns for Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, and Sean Singletary. It was a bit of a head scratcher for the Suns who appeared to be trying to slow the game down and focus on their interior game with Shaq and Amare; Richardson’s up tempo offensive game didn’t appear to be a very good fit initially. The Bobcats, on the other hand, give up their best offensive player in terms of creating his own shot in Richardson as well as a solid back up in Dudley.

Suns
The Suns have responded by going 3-1 in the first 4 games since Richardson suited up in the purple and orange. The lowest offensive output of that stretch was 108 in a win over Denver. In the loss, the Suns still managed 119 points, but they play about as much defense as the French during a blitzkrieg and lost 124-119.

Richardson- Although it wasn’t sure how Richardson would fit on Phoenix at first, he has responded since the trade. His scoring averaging and assists have remained consistent as he is averaging 18.3 points and 2.5 assists since the trade and 18.7 and 2.6 before. At the same time, his rebound has increased from 4.1 to 5.5 and his turnovers are down to 1.5 from 1.7. His steals are also down to 0.3 from 1.0. The biggest thing that I notice when I look at his stats is the improvement in his shooting percentage. It’s only 4 games, but his FG% is up to 46.3% from 44.1% and his free throw percentage is up to 76.9% from 74.6%. Those improvements are fairly minor, but his jump in 3-point percentage is huge. Richardson is shooting 54.2% since joining the Suns, up almost 10% from the 45.8% he was shooting in Charlotte. The most important thing about that stat is that it has been maintained and isn’t the result of just one game. In the Suns last three games, Richardson is 4-6, 4-7, and 4-7 from 3-point range. It seems that the Suns focus on their interior game with Shaq and Stoudemire have given Richardson some very open and makeable shots. He also has a 2-time MVP distributor in Steve Nash to set him up going to the hoop and on fast breaks. The Suns current starting lineup of Nash and Richardson at the guards, and Grant Hill, Shaq, and Stoudemire on the front line seems to be very well suited for Richardson’s skills. He can create his own shot if he has to, but with one of the league’s best facilitators in Nash, and good passing forwards in Hill and Shaq, Richardson is getting open shot from the outside and going to the hoop. The overall talent level also makes it easier for Richardson as defenses can’t key in on anyone because all five can hurt you if you leave them open. Richardson looks like he could be a great fit in Phoenix and is probably the player to benefit the most from this trade, both in the NBA and in fantasy leagues.

Dudley- I have liked Dudley since college because he was a player who would get physical and rebound inside but could also step out and hit a 3-pointer. It was a good mix of skills and he was able to do it well, even though he is a little undersized in the post. After a rookie season in which he scored 5.8 points and pulled down 3.9 rebounds per game, Dudley was contributing more of the same at 5.4 and 3.0 this season. His shooting percentage remained steady at 46.9% compared to 46.8% this past season. His biggest improvement this season has been his 3-point shooting where he has hit 37.5% this season, up 15.5% from the 22% he shot last season. On a team like Phoenix, this could be lead to a Dudley being a solid contributor off the bench as he can help spread the flow as a small or power forward and open up the lane while still providing toughness inside. The 3-point shooting could really help coming from either the PF spot as not many can step outside and shoot, or at the SF where he can take passes from Shaq or Amare in the post and knock that jumper down. Curiously, Dudley has only played 2 minutes of one game since the trade, picking up just a foul. I think Dudley could be a good bench player for the Suns this year, but it will be interesting to see if he gets a chance to play some more.

Bobcats
The Bobcats are a team perpetually in transition. On draft night 2007, they traded their first round pick (Brandan Wright) to the Warriors for Richardson who was supposed to be the go-to-guy for the young offense. Less than two seasons later, the Bobcats are trading Richardson for Diaw and Bell, both solid role players, and Singletary, a third string point guard. None are considered a “go-to-guy.” After 2 low scoring losses, Charlotte is 2-1 and scoring over 100 points per game since the trade though, so the offense has picked up without a primary scorer.

Diaw- Diaw was averaging 8.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game in 24 minutes for the Suns. In 5 games since being traded to the Bobcats, his numbers have jumped to 16.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 4.2 assists in 35 minutes. The increase is partially due to an increase in playing time, but also due to Diaw getting more looks on offense. He is no longer the 4th or 5th option in the offense as he was in Phoenix. Diaw has benefited greatly from the increased opportunities. His shooting percentage has remained high at 52.9% compared to 56.7% in Phoenix even though the number of shots he is taking has more than doubled to 13.6 per game from 6.4. His 3-point percentage is through the roof at 77.8% with Charlotte after shooting 35.7% in Phoenix. I would expect that to fall, obviously, to a more reasonable 40%. Diaw has scored in double figures in the last 4 with double-doubles in the last 2. Look for his production to remain at the higher level as he continues to get more playing time and shots.

Bell- Bell is the perimeter defender that Larry Brown wanted for his team in Charlotte. While Bell does excel at defense, that doesn’t mean much to fantasy owners because Bell has never been a defender that accumulates blocked shots or steals. His minutes are down to 26 per game from 32 when he was in Phoenix and his numbers are reflecting that cut. In five games with Charlotte, Bell is averaging 6.6 points on 31.7% shooting, down from 9.6 points and 42.9%. His 3-point shooting has plummeted to 27.8% with the Bobcats from 46.8% with the Suns. Bell has seen modest increases in rebounding to 3.6 from 2.9 and assists to 1.8 from 1.3. Although he scored 21 points against Golden State on Saturday, I would probably try to trade him now while his value is still a little higher. In the 4 games prior to the Golden State game, Bell only scored 12 points total on 6-29 shooting.

Singletary- A rookie point guard from Virginia, Singletary has not had much playing time this year averaging 9 minutes in 13 games in Phoenix and almost 2 minutes in 2 games with Charlotte. On the year he is averaging 2.4 points, 1.2 rebounds, and 0.8 assists. The main thing to look for when looking at Singletary is if the Bobcats are going to make another move soon. Brown sees Singletary as a solid NBA point guard in the future, which may mean that Raymond Felton will be traded soon. Brown already drafted D.J. Augustin early in the first round to play point guard and Augustin has games of 29 and 28 points in the last month as well as two 10 assist games and he is averaging 13.2 points and 4.6 assists per game so far this season. Felton is averaging 13 points and 6.2 assists, but Brown may still want to move him and let Augustin start and have Singletary back him up. If this happens, Singletary may be worth a look although he is not playing now.




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