Above the Rim: Understatement of the Year

Gilbert Arenas admitted that storing guns in his locker was "bad judgment" on his part. Other examples of bad judgement of this magnitude include Bill Clinton's behavior around his interns and Gus Frerotte headbutting a wall in celebration. It's amazing that it took half a week of news coverage to make Agent Zero realize that his locker at the arena was not a gun locker. Furthermore, his bad judgment in this respect is minor compared to his decision to allegedly pull one of those guns on teammate Javaris Crittenton. This situation is an example of some of the worst judgment ever. What could Arenas possibly have been thinking to think it was ok to store guns in such a public venue and then pull a gun on his teammate? I can't even offer an explanation.

Compared to troubled Cavaliers guard Delonte West's arrest this offseason, also in Washington D.C. (should they switch the name back to Bullets?), Arenas probably shows worse judgment that West. First, Arenas was storing the guns in an extremely public place while West was allegedly transporting them. Arenas pulled a gun on a teammate while West did not threaten anyone. In fact, at least one report stated that West was carrying the guns because he was concerned for his safety after being threatened. Finally, West suffers from depression and bi-polar disorder, both of which probably contribured to his lapse in judgment, and he admitted to not taking his medication. When comparing the two situations, Arenas has no justifications for his actions and threats, while West not only did not threaten anyone, but also is more sympathetic due to his unique circumstances.

There are many examples of poor judgment by Ron Artest that the Arenas situation could be compared to:

• Artest drinking Hennessey at halftime when with the Bulls- while extremely poor judgment on Artest's part, this in no way was a violation of the law and did not endanger anyone else, although it may have hurt his and the Bulls' performance.


• Artest leaving the Pacers to promote his (awful) rap album- again, poor judgment by Artest that shows a "me-first" attitude instead of being a team player, but Artest's behavior does not harm anyone other than himself and his team, and only in terms of performance or image.


• Artest's role in the Fight at Auburn Hills- when I first saw this, I was actually surprised at how much Artest was behaving by laying on the scorer's table and not being provoked into a fight with the 6'8" 250 lb. Ben Wallace ... then he ran into the stands and began throwing haymakers at a 5'8" 250 lb. fan wearing a Ben Wallace jersey. This is a closer parallel to Arenas. Not only was it an example of some of the worst decision making ever, but it also endangered everyone in the arena that night, fans and players alike. The only real differences between the two situations are that Artest involved 20,000 people while Arenas was only including members of the locker room. Also, Artest's situation did not include a deadly weapon (although it did include 40,000 fists) while Arenas used a gun.

The closest parallel to Arenas is probably when Plaxico Burress shot himself in the league at a night club. Both situations involved the reckless use of a gun in a public venue. Both endangered innocent bystanders. Fortunately, no one was injured by Arenas in this scenario.

To be honest, this "judgment" by Arenas will probably be one of the most infamous lapses of judment in sports history when it is all said and done, competing with Burress, 10 Cent Beer Night, Disco Demolition Night, and the Brawl at Auburn Hills. There are few occurrences in sports that can create such a degree of danger, and the scary thing about Arenas is that it included firearms.

One more variable that compounds the situation is the massive chip that Arenas insists on carrying on his shoulder. Arenas has always been quick to point out when people underestimate him, which some consider to be a key to his success. But this attitude can also be aggravating and potentially troublesome. First, Arenas insists on saying he doesn't get any respect despite being a past all-star and making near the league maximum. More troubling is that with such a large chip on his shoulder, who takes everything personally, would have a stash of guns in his locker. And then actually pull a gun on a teammate. Arenas can be a hothead at times, and when he does get fired up, it is not good that he has ready access to a cache of dangerous weapons. Arenas does not strike me as particularly responsible, and coupled with his short fuse, this could be very dangerous.

It will be interesting to see how the NBA and authorities handle this situation. Regardless, it should be remembered as one of the worst decisions ever by a professional athlete.

Above the Rim: Coming Attractions

I recently had the pleasure of attending the High School Basketball showdown between #1 Findlay Prep (Las Vegas) and #5 (or #7 or #13 depending on the ranker) Northland (Columbus). The matchup featured some of the best high school basketball prospects in the country including Ohio State bound Jared Sullinger (6’8” and 260 lbs. according to Rivals.com) of Northland and future Texas Longhorn Tristan Thompson (6’9” and 240 lbs.) of Findlay in the post and an exciting point guard matchup between Northland’s Trey Burke (Penn State in 2011) and Findlay’s Cory Joseph (uncommitted, but considered the 3^rd best point guard in the country). The game also featured Rivals top 100 players Godwin Okonji, Jabari Brown, Nick Johnson, and Winston Shepard of Findlay. Northland’s other Ohio State commit, JD Weatherspoon did not play with an injured ankle, however sophomore Jalen Robinson (West Virginia commit) stepped up big to play some great defense in the post.

Going into the game, I was expecting a high scoring shoot out featuring Northland’s talented OSU commits and Burke challenging the high scoring attack of Findlay Prep (just under 100 ppg coming in). However, Northland’s suffocating defense kept Findlay on its heels early with Sullinger and Robinson both locking down the paint and Burke harassing Joseph on the perimeter. At the half, Northland had opened a 29-15 lead. That’s right; Findlay Prep, who was averaging 96 points per game, was held to just 15 in the first half.

In the second half, Findlay got hot from the outside and used an aggressive full court press to force a few turnovers and convert them into easy buckets to get back into the game. The score was 39-35 heading into the fourth. With the teams trading the lead down the stretch, both teams went to their go to guys. Northland was feeding Sullinger in the post nearly every time down, playing a two man game with Burke, and Findlay was leaning on Thompson and Joseph. With under a minute left, Burke beat Joseph on the perimeter and dumped it off to sophomore Kechaun Lewis who converted the layup after a nice backdoor cut, but the referees waived off the basket because of a blocking foul on Findlay before the pass. With a one point lead, Burke missed the first half of a one-and-one, his only mistake of the game, giving the ball back to Findlay. After Findlay scored with ten seconds to go, Sullinger received the inbounds pass and dribbled up the sideline, being bumped by Thompson the whole way. With four seconds left, Sullinger got the blocking call on Thompson and converted both free throws to give Northland a one point win, 53-52.

The victory was impressive for Northland in many ways. Not only was Findlay the #1 team in the nation, but they had a 45 game winning streak, an all-time record of 75-1, and were held to 52 points for the game despite averaging 96 on the season.

Individually, there were a lot of impressive players on both sides that should be making names for themselves in college in the near future and possibly the NBA.

• Jared Sullinger showed why he is considered one of the best players in the country. He finished with 32 points and 17 rebounds, and one monster block, to lead Northland, but his most impressive contributions were his perfect night from the free throw line (10-10) and his clutch performance down the stretch to put Northland on his back and help them keep pace with Findlay. His 17 rebounds were also huge in limiting Findlay to one shot per possession most of the time.


• Tristan Thompson showed that he is a top post player as well. He finished with 18 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 blocks and was the only player with the strength to try to stop Sullinger in the post. If Thompson, who fouled out when he fouled Sullinger with 4 seconds left, would have stayed out of foul trouble early, he may have been more aggressive with Sullinger down the stretch which could have made the matchup even more exciting.


• Trey Burke made a case for himself being considered a top point guard in the class of 2011. Not only did he show an amazing handle with the ball and good court vision, but he also scored 10 points to go with 7 assists. He also hit 4 of 5 free throws. Most importantly, he did not turn the ball over at all and held the high scoring Joseph to just 8 points.


• Corey Joseph did not get going scoring the ball, but showed his value in other aspects of the game. Joseph still scored 8 points to go with 4 assists, 6 rebounds, and 1 steal and was a big part of the full court press that got Findlay back into the game in the third quarter. Like Burke, he has a great handle and only turned the ball over once.


• Nick Johnson and Jabari Brown quietly scored 14 and 10 for Findlay, respectively. When a game features as many top players as this one, it is easy to fly under the radar a little, and Johnson and Brown were victimized by this on Thursday. Both played solid games but were overshadowed. Johnson and Brown, both juniors, were averaging 14 and 17, respectively.


• Finally, the Northland trio of sophomores Kechaun Lewis, Jalen Robinson, and Devon Scott, while scoring only 3, 2, and 2 points on a combined 3-5 shooting, were the unsung heroes of the game. These three provided lock down defense from start to finish and committed only one turnover combined to help Northland maintain possession and control of the game. Defensively, Lewis was solid on Findlay’s wings and played a big part in limiting their perimeter game while Robinson (3 blocks) and Scott contested every shot in the post. While their stat lines were not impressive, these players were the keys for Northland in the one point victory as they stepped up and made plays on the defensive end repeatedly.

Overall, Sullinger provided one of the best high school performances I have ever seen, probably better than when I saw LeBron James go for 40+ against Zanesville in 2003. While LeBron put up a near triple-double and 40 points in three quarters, it was also against Zanesville who was not ranked in the state, let alone the country. Sullinger put up 32 and 17 against the #1 team in the country that was loaded with 5-star recruits. Not to be outdone, Burke, Joseph, and Thompson all showed that they will be college starters when their turn comes around. Findlay’s Johnson and Brown showed potential and they should be the leaders of Findlay next season when Thompson and Joseph graduate. Finally, Northland’s sophomores Lewis, Robinson, and Scott showed heart, determination, and athleticism and should have Northland and central Ohio excited for the next few years as they finish their high school careers. All three have a chance to play college basketball when they graduate.

Above the Rim: 0-17 and Counting

Will the Nets pass the Clippers and go to 0-18? The Clippers are always just assumed to be the worst no matter what record for futility you talk about, but the Nets are on the verge of taking one off of their hands. After getting crushed by the Lakers last night, 106-87, the Nets have tied the Clippers and will see if they can break the record for worst losing streak to start a season on Wednesday at home against a good Dallas Mavericks team.

Are the Nets this bad or have they just caught some bad luck? Looking at their roster, they do have some pieces in the place for the future. Point guard Devin Harris was an all-star last season when he averaged 21.3 points and 6.9 assists per game. This year, he has 15.3 points and 5.7 assists per game, but he has only played 6 games due to injuries early. Second year center Brook Lopez looks like he may join Harris as an all-star in the near future. The big man from Stanford is following up a solid rookie season by averaging 17.9 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per game, all leading the team. Chris Douglas-Roberts, another second year player, should be a solid starter for the Nets. This season, the wing has averaged 17.2 points, second on the team, and has added 5.3 rebounds and 1.15 steals. That gives the Nets three young, solid starters to build around. Rookie Terrence Williams has also shown that he is capable of playing in the NBA. Williams is averaging 10.4 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, mostly off the bench. Other Nets that should be contributors in the future are guard Courtney Lee and power forward Josh Boone. Lee was a rookie for the Magic last year and came to the Nets in the Vince Carter trade. Last season with Orlando, he showed that he can be a capable starter or a solid bench player for a good team in the NBA, and he is averaging 8.7 points this season for the Nets. Boone provides rebounding and physical defense in the paint, but he is probably better suited to coming off the bench. Offense is usually a bonus with Boone, but he is averaging 5.8 rebounds and .56 blocks to go with 4.6 points as both a starter and a reserve this season.

The problem with the Nets is the inexperience and inconsistency of these young players and a lack of veterans to steady the team until the young guys develop. Rafer Alston is a solid player, but he played above his head last year for Orlando. Ideally, he would be a back-up point guard and a sharp-shooter off the bench, but he has started 13 games this season. The same goes for Trenton Hassell. Hassell has been a solid bench player in this league for years, but he has started 11 of 12 games this season. While averaging 9.9 and 8.8 points per game, respectively, these two would be better utilized if they had smaller roles and could focus on that job. Another veteran, Bobby Simmons, is a decent bench player, but he has been declining for the last five seasons since winning the Most Improved Player award for the Clippers. Yi Jianlian has been a bust since day 1 in the NBA and is dead weight on the roster at this point.

The Nets could develop as the year goes on and be respectable by the end of the season, but they are probably at least a year or two away from pushing for a .500 record. In the meantime, they need to snap this losing streak and get a win under their belt. With the young team they have, that may take a lot of pressure of them and they could quickly improve. While the Nets are 0-17, they are not as bad as the record indicates. Look for them to approve throughout the season as the gain experience. With a few off-season acquisitions, this team could be a dangerous 7 or 8 seed next season.

Above the Rim: Brandon Jennings Emerges

After spending last season in Europe instead of at the University of Arizona, Bucks rookie Brandon Jennings was an unknown coming into the NBA draft. Reports on him were good, but a lot of teams seemed uncertain of what effect playing in Europe straight out of high school would have on him. After seven games, Jennings is averaging 25.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game. It seems that the move across the pond worked pretty well. It will be interesting to see if more prep stars follow in his footsteps and try to emulate Jennings quick start.

So far this season, Jennings has had games of 24, 25, 32, and, recently, a Bucks’ rookie record 55 point game. He has also had two 9 assist games. Shooting wise, he is hitting 49.6% from the floor and 56.7% from three point range while connecting on 82.8% of his free throws. Those percentages are among the best of any player across the board in the NBA. Is this the kind of debut we can expect from prep stars that choose to go overseas rather than attending college?

We have to remember that Jennings was slated to play for Lute Olsen at Arizona, so he was already a top prep player and not a normal high school recruit. Still, the move to Europe worried a few NBA general managers as he was drafted tenth overall, behind point guards Ricky Rubio (5th), Jonny Flynn (6th), and Stephen Curry (7th). Flynn was a freshman, graduating from high school the same year as Jennings, and Rubio was another relative unknown coming over from Europe. NBA execs felt that Flynn and Rubio, both taken by the Timberwolves, were better and more of a sure thing than Jennings. Meanwhile, while Jennings is becoming a star in Milwaukee as one of the best rookie point guards in the last 20 years, Rubio is still in Spain and Flynn is averaging 14.2 points and 3.3 assists in Minnesota. However, Flynn is also averaging 3.6 turnovers per game (.92 assists per turnover) and only shooting 26.9% from three point range for the 1-10 T’wolves while Jennings is averaging 3.4 turnovers (1.5 assists per turnover) for the 5-2 first place Bucks.

While Jennings has made Europe a viable option in lieu of college for prep stars, high school stars will need to think long about their decision before making the jump. Jennings had the skill set and the confident personality to pull it off. Most high school basketball players are not at that stage of their basketball careers or psyches to make such a move successful.

In the meantime, Jennings is the early favorite for Rookie of the Year, but we will see how viable the move will be for other players. This could be a dangerous precedent for high school players with visions of the NBA in their heads.

Above the Rim: NBA Season Preview

The NBA season kicks off with the Cavaliers and the Celtics tomorrow night in a rematch of the 2008 Eastern Conference Finals (the Magic derailed the Celtics to ruin another matchup in the 2009 Conference Finals). This year’s offseason was fairly quiet with a lot of movement early and an unusual lack of off the court drama.

The contenders in the East and the West got richer this year without any teams making moves to join their ranks (the Pistons picking up Ben Gordon and Charlie Villaneuva should be enough to get them into the playoffs, but they will lose in the first round).

• The Cavaliers picked up Shaquille O’Neal early in the offseason to start the movement. While many seem to think that Shaq won’t perform at a high level, I think they are underestimating the Big Aristotle. He was an all-star last year in Phoenix averaging 17.8 points and 8.4 rebounds and Cleveland will be able to keep him fresh with Zydrunas Ilgauskas backing him up at center. Also, even if Shaq does not match his numbers from last year and settles around 14 points and 7 rebounds, it is still a large improvement over what the Cavs got from Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic last season. The Cavaliers then added Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon to increase their depth and athleticism at the shooting guard, small forward, and power forward positions. The Cavs are also expecting former Celtic Leon Powe back by the all-star break after off-season knee surgery.


• The Celtics also improved by adding Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels to their bench and, currently, are healthy after losing Kevin Garnett down the stretch. I think Wallace will be an effective pickup, but will not match his 12 points and 7.4 rebounds from last season with less looks on offense. I have always liked Daniels and he has proven he can be effective off the bench.


• The Orlando Magic had surprisingly high turnover on their roster after winning the Eastern Conference last season. The net result: Hedo Turkoglu, Rafer Alston, and Courtney Lee are all gone after contributing to the Magic’s run in the playoffs and are replaced by Vince Carter, Brandon Bass, and Ryan Anderson. I feel the Magic are worse off for the changes. Their bench is weaker with Mickael Pietrus stepping into the starting lineup at small forward because there isn’t an explosive player on the bench to replace him. Bass will help at the power forward and Anderson can shoot, but neither can match how effective Pietrus was. Lee was poised to break out this season and should have a good year in New Jersey where he will get more looks on offense. Carter is good, but he is getting older and has peaked. Swapping him for Turkoglu in the starting lineup also eliminates the matchup problems that a 6’11” point forward like Turkoglu created. His flexibility was a big reason why the Magic were able to knock off the Cavs last year. With a more traditional offense, the Magic lose that advantage and will struggle with both the Cavs and Celtics.


• The Lakers were the champions and then swapped Trevor Ariza, a potential star, for Ron Artest, an established star who I thought deserved top finish in the top 5 for MVP last season. The Lakers may also get something from Adam Morrison off the bench this season after getting him from Charlotte last season. After getting Shannon Brown from the Cavs, Brown developed into a nice role player within a season, and Morrison could be on track to follow in his footsteps.

Off-court drama in the NBA this off-season that could carry over into the regular season.

• How is the Stephen Jackson situation in Golden State going to unfold? After signing an extension, Jackson wants out for New York, Cleveland, or a team in Texas. The Cavs don’t have the pieces to make it happen and New York wants to maintain cap room for the 2010 free agent class. So where will Jackson end up…


• Toronto? The rumor a few weeks ago was a trade that would send Jackson to the Raptors for Chris Bosh. Bosh is a free agent in 2010 and is probably on his way back to the states. Toronto may try to cut its losses and get something back for Bosh if they are not in contention. However, the Raptors picked up Turkoglu this off-season and should be able to make the playoffs. Also, if they trade Bosh for Jackson, their leading rebounder from last season would be Andrea Bargnani, a 7 footer who plays more like a shooting guard instead of a post player, with only 5.3 rebounds per game. I look for Bosh to stay put in Toronto until at least the all-star break when the front office will have to evaluate how the season is going.


• Delonte West in Cleveland broke the silence of the off-season when he was arrested outside of Washington D.C. with pistols on his ankle and in his waistband, and a shotgun in a guitar case on his back. West left the team last year in training camp to get help with depression and bi-polar disorder. Supposedly, he was off his medication at the time of the arrest and is back on it now. Based on last season, West should be ok once the season gets started; he seems to cope better when he is around the other Cavs as he had his best season last year. However, the Cavs will probably have to play without him for a while as he will probably get suspended for a few games for his arrest.

Where is LeBron going?

• This story has been relatively quiet during the off-season as the economy will probably lower the salary cap next season restricting the number of teams that can offer him a full contract, or offer LeBron and another player max contracts. While the New York media, especially the New York Post, likes to write articles about why LeBron is coming to the Knicks, the rest of the country seems to think that LeBron will be back in Cleveland with an extension after the season. While I think that is probably what will happen, I still expect a steady stream of articles about LeBron leaving every time the Cavs play the Knicks or the Nets.

So what do we have to look forward to this season?

• LeBron James will win his second straight MVP award. His scoring may dip a bit as he shares the ball with Shaq and the other newcomers, but his rebounds and assists could jump as he plays off the ball a little more. I expect his assists to go up especially with Shaq in the post and Parker, whom coach Mike Brown said was the best shooter he has seen since Reggie Miller, on the wing. The Cavs were a 66 win team last season and improved, so they should be the top team in the East again which will help James in the MVP vote. Dark horse- Brandon Roy will lead the Blazers to the second best record in the West and will become one of the league’s elite players.


• Blake Griffin will run away with the Rookie of the Year. Last year’s best college player will get plenty of opportunities to produce for the dysfunctional Clippers and should average close to 15 points and 8 rebounds. A double-double average is an outside possibility as well. Second round surprises- Pitt Panthers Dajuan Blair and Sam Young were both productive and fundamentally sound players in college that will produce in the NBA this season. Blair will be a force in the post off the bench for the Spurs and Young should get looks for the Grizzlies at multiple positions.


• The Cavaliers and Celtics will play a classic series to decide the Eastern Conference championship for the second time in three years. This series will probably come down to who has home court advantage, but the Cavaliers are younger overall and have a little more depth on the bench and will be able to avoid and overcome injuries better than the Celtics. The series will go to seven games, but the Cavs should make their second appearance in the NBA Finals in four years where they will play …


• The LA Lakers. The Lakers are head and shoulders above every team in the West. It is kind of like when Larry Bird asked the other 3-point shooters who was going to finish second behind him at the 3-point shootout; there are talented teams out West, but this race is basically already decided. The only team I expect to give the Lakers trouble are the emerging Blazers. They played LA tough in the playoffs last season and should improve with another year of experience. I expect the Blazers to take the Lakers to six or seven games in the Western Conference Finals.


• In the NBA Finals, the NBA will finally have its Kobe-LeBron matchup. While the Lakers have the experience and may be the better team on paper, this series is too close to call. I would probably give the Lakers a 60-40 advantage today (which kills me as a Clevelander), but this series could go either way if LeBron or Kobe gets hot or if Shaq gets an adrenaline boost from playing against Kobe again.

Above the Rim: Summer League Roundup

The NBA Summer League finished its schedule on July 19th and some players caught the attention of analysts and executives around the league. Following is a list of players that made a good impression in the Summer League.

Anthony Randolph, Warriors- The 20 year old second year player had GMs gushing about this future superstar after he followed up three straight double-doubles with a 42 point performance. Randolph led the league in scoring at 26.8 points per game and added 8.5 rebounds. Randolph also averaged 3 blocks and 2.2 steals per game.

Adam Morrison, Lakers- The former Gonzaga star may have found the confidence that will help him live up to the potential he showed in college. Morrison averaged 20.8 points per game and added 42$ shooting from 3-point range and 89.5% from the free throw line.

Blake Griffin, Clippers- Griffin lived up to expectations as he averaged 19.2 points and 10.8 rebounds in five games. Griffin shot 50% from the floor, but did struggle at the free throw line shooting only 45.9%.

Stephen Curry, Warriors- Curry showed why the Warriors took him seventh in the draft as he filled up the stat sheet with 17.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 2.4 steals per game. Curry’s shooting percentages were disappointing though as he only shot 32.5% from the floor and 34.5% from 3-point range. Curry and Randolph’s performances added to the continued emergence of Anthony Morrow (24.7 points per game in the Summer League) bodes well for the Warriors’ future.

JaVale McGee, Wizards- Last year’s first round pick showed his ability to score and play defense as he averaged 17.3 points per game and 4 blocks per game. McGee also added 6.3 rebounds and shot 54.2% from the floor.

Jonny Flynn, Timberwolves- After a stellar season capped by his memorable performance in the 6 overtime game against UConn, Flynn entered the Summer League and averaged 15 points and 7.4 assists per game. Flynn was also one of the most efficient players in the league shooting 48% from the floor, 58.3% from 3-point range, and 90.9% from the free throw line.

Brandon Jennings, Bucks- Jennings was closely watched in the Summer League after spending last season playing professionally in Europe instead of attending Arizona for one season. Such a bold move was going to be scrutinized going forward as more high school seniors explore their options. Jennings responded by leading the rookie league in assists at 8.2 per game (tied with Marcus Williams) and added 14.6 points and 3.6 steals. While getting rave reviews for his passing ability, Jennings did struggle shooting only 37.9% from the floor.

Joey Dorsey, Rockets- Dorsey dominated the paint in five games averaging 14.8 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game while shooting 62.1%. Dorsey also averaged 9.8 points per game. Dorsey will have to stay out of foul trouble when the season starts as he picked up 6 personal fouls in three games and 7 in one other (players do not foul out in the Summer League).

Marcus Williams, Grizzlies- The Grizzlies are trying to resurrect the career of this promising young point guard. In the Summer League, it looked as though the project was ahead of schedule. Williams tied for the league lead with 8.2 assists per game, including 17 in one game. Williams also added 13.4 points and 4.6 rebounds per game.

Above the Rim: NBA Off-season Moves

The NBA off-season started with a bang as the Cleveland Cavaliers acquired center Shaquille O’Neal from the Phoenix Suns, but there still might be one or two bullets (Carlos Boozer?) left in the chamber before the off-season is over. Here is a summary of the big moves so far.

Richard Jefferson, San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs traded for the talented wing after Jefferson spent last season in Milwaukee. Jefferson has shown that he can be very effective when playing with an all-star point guard (Jason Kidd in New Jersey) and that will continue in San Antonio where he will play with Tony Parker. The Spurs still have the pieces to win a championship with Parker and Tim Duncan both returning and healthy. Sixth man Manu Ginobli may be wearing down as it is taking him more and more time to come back from nagging injuries. With Ginobli deteriorating, Jefferson will step in and be the third option for the Spurs as they challenge the Lakers in the West. The Spurs gave up aging role players Kurt Thomas, Bruce Bowen, and Fabricio Oberto to get Jefferson, but RJ should be able to make up the difference as he helps spread the floor for Duncan and Parker and scores around 17 points per game this season.
Verdict- major upgrade; the Spurs gain a high scoring wing while giving up three veterans who are in decline

Vince Carter, Orlando Magic
The Magic traded Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston, and Tony Battie for Carter (and Ryan Anderson). After watching the Magic dismantle the Cavaliers in the playoffs last season, I think this trade will actually hurt Orlando, along with the loss of Hedo Turkoglu. The Magic were built on perimeter shooting, ball movement, and Dwight Howard. Lee and Alston both fit that system well and Battie was a solid back-up in the post. Carter will not fit that system as well because he likes to dribble and drive. That could make the Magic stagnant as it will slow down the offense and result in lots of players becoming stationary. Alston was expendable with Jameer Nelson returning from last season’s injury, but the Magic have now lost Lee, who was a promising young guard, and Turkoglu. Carter can score, but he needs the ball and that could take away from the rest of the team’s effectiveness.
Verdict- one step backwards; the Magic lose a young core player in Lee and Carter may not mesh with Howard and Rashard Lewis

Shaquille O’Neal, Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs finally pulled the trigger on the Shaq to Cleveland trade that was rumored at the February all-star break. Shaq played 75 games last season, his most since playing 73 in 2004-2005 with Miami when they won the championship and he should be motivated next season by the chance to win a ring with LeBron. However, the Cavs should not expect, nor do they need Shaq to match last season’s 17.8 points and 8.4 rebounds. If Shaq can perform at that level, the Cavs would be thrilled, but with LeBron and Mo Williams already in the offense, the Cavs should be satisfied with 15 points and 7 or 8 rebounds a night. With shooters like Delonte West, Williams, and Daniel Gibson, the Cavs should also benefit from Shaq’s ability to pass out of the post. The Cavs still have Zydrunas Ilgauskas to back Shaq up and split minutes, so Shaq may not see 30 minutes a game like he did last season. However, this will keep both Shaq and Z fresher and healthier for the playoffs where Shaq should give the Cavs a better match-up with Dwight Howard than Anderson Varejao and Z did last season. With this acquisition, the Cavs greatly strengthened their front court and added size that should help against Orlando, Boston, and the Lakers.
Despite all of these positives that Shaq brings, the real plus for the Cavs is what they gave up to get him. Subtracting Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic without gaining anyone might be seen as improving the team and at least could be seen as not getting worse. So to add a talent like O’Neal while giving up two players who would not have played significant roles next season is a major coup for GM Danny Ferry. It is reminiscent of Ferry’s trade last off-season in which he gave up Joe Smith and Damon Jones and received future all-star Mo Williams in return.
Verdict- big upgrade in the post while not giving up any value

Ron Artest, Los Angeles Lakers and Trevor Ariza, Houston Rockets
While both of these players were free agents, their signings virtually created a trade. The results should be interesting as well. The Lakers definitely improve in the short term with Artest joining Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol to make the Lakers the early favorites to repeat. Artest is more polished than Ariza, although a very similar player, and is an upgrade to the Lakers for the next three years.
However, Ariza is only 24 and could become much better than Artest by the end of the contract. A good perimeter defender with the ability to score, Ariza will be in his prime near the end of this contract and could become a star. Artest has probably peaked, and while he is a good player, there won’t be any more improvement.
Verdict- this deal makes the Lakers better in the short-term, but the Rockets better in the long-term. If Artest can keep his emotions in check and avoid the suspensions that have hurt him in the past, the Lakers should win at least one title in the three years of this contract. Artest represents a mild upgrade over Ariza due to his more polished game, especially offensively. However, the Lakers may have hurt themselves in the long run because Ariza may develop into an all-star. The Rockets, on the other hand, may not make the playoffs next year with injuries to Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, but Ariza will be able to mature with Aaron Brooks, Von Wafer, and the Rockets other young players. When Yao returns and the Rockets use McGrady’s salary to sign other pieces when he comes off the books, the Rockets may be in a strong position to make a run at the Finals in the last few seasons of Ariza’s 5-year deal.

Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon, Detroit Pistons
The Pistons made a splash on the first day of free agency by spending $90 million on these two young players. Coming off a disappointing season in which the Pistons made the playoffs, but finished under .500 and were swept by the Cavs in the first round, the Pistons used their cap space to add two of the better young players in free agency. Initially targeting Carlos Boozer, the Pistons turned to Villanueva after Boozer exercised his player option with the Jazz. Villanueva will provide the Pistons with scoring and rebounding at the 4, but he will not be the banger Rasheed Wallace was. Villanueva is more of a finesse forward and is not as good defensively as Wallace. However, because he is only 24, Villanueva could grow into a more complete power forward and show he is worth $40 million over 5 years.
Gordon has already proven that he can score with anyone in the league, including Ray Allen in the playoffs, but the Bulls were unable to persuade him to stay in Chicago. The Pistons gain a shooting guard with unlimited range to plug next to promising young combo guard Rodney Stuckey. While Gordon can shoot the lights out, he is only 6’3” which can present match-up problems with some of the NBA’s bigger backcourts and Gordon is not very strong defensively to begin with. The signing also gives the Pistons three shooting guards (with Stuckey and Rip Hamilton) and no real point guard.
In these two deals, the Pistons sacrifice defense for offense and get younger in the process. Neither Villanueva nor Gordon will carry this team defensively like a Tayshaun Prince or Ben or Rasheed Wallace would. Also, neither player is the go-to-guy that can absolutely carry a team to victory. Both are good players, but they are not at the level where they will put a team over the top. The Pistons should see improvement, but they will not be able to catch Orlando, Cleveland, or Boston.
Verdict- moderate upgrade with defensive questions

Rasheed Wallace, Boston Celtics
This deal should help the Celtics depth, but should not be a very big upgrade. Wallace joins a crowded front court where Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis, and Leon Powe are already fighting for minutes. Wallace could provide intensity and perimeter shooting at the 4, but his potential contribution is being greatly exaggerated. Garnett will still be the starter, and Davis and Powe are productive back-ups who will also get playing time. While the Celtics did not spend much to obtain Wallace (just the mid-level exception), the signing will not put them over the top. If Wallace plays, it will take minutes from Powe, Davis, and maybe Garnett. If he doesn’t play as much, then his contribution is even more limited. Wallace does not present a major upgrade over what Boston already had, so it does not improve them that much to play him instead of their other post players.
Verdict- staying in place

Potential deals that could make waves are the rumored three team trade that would send Carlos Boozer to the Bulls and Kirk Hinrich to the Blazers, Boozer to the Pistons for Hamilton, and Boozer to Miami. I don’t think Boozer will be traded, but he could be the final piece of a championship for some teams in the league, especially the Bulls.

Above the Rim: NBA Finals Recap

With the Lakers 5-game defeat of the Magic in the NBA Finals, some long-standing questions have been answered. Kobe Bryant has won a title without Shaquille O'Neal and Phil Jackson has won the 10th title (passing Red Auerbach) that has eluded him since Shaq left LA.

Kobe was himself in this series, one of the best clutch players in the NBA, on his way to winning Finals MVP. Kobe averaged over 32 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists while hitting an array of shots in the series. There was little to find fault with in Kobe's game as the only real blemish in the series was his 7 turnovers in game 2, which the Lakers overcame to win in overtime.

Derek Fisher appeared to find his game just in time to snatch a victory away from the Magic in game 4 by hitting a three with 4.6 seconds left to send the game into overtime and then another to help the Lakers pull away in overtime. Overall, the Finals were Fisher's best series of the playoffs as he averaged 11 points per game and provided defense and veteran leadership.

The play of Pau Gasol, Trevor Ariza, and Lamar Odom, while not overwhelming, was more than enough support for Kobe to enable the Lakers to dominate this series. Gasol was quietly dominate, shooting at least 50% in every game (60% for the series) while averaging 18 points and 9 rebounds including 3 double-doubles. Ariza didn't shoot very well in the series but provided scoring, rebounding, and defense throughout the series to help the Lakers contain the Magic's potentially explosive offense. Odom scored 13 points per game off the bench and provided 2 double-doubles while getting the bulk of the playing time over Andrew Bynum. So much for the sugar crash that was publicized on ESPN for a week leading up to the series.

Jackson's contribution to the series may be overlooked amid all the storylines about Kobe, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson's return, and Fisher's jumper. Jackson's defensive strategy contained a Magic team that repeatedly came back from large deficits against the Cavs in the conference finals. The Magic shot over 33.3% from three-point range just once in the series (35.7% in a game 3 win) after shooting over 40% for the majority of the conference finals. This decrease provided the margin of victory in games 2 and 4, and possibly game 5. If Jackson's strategy did not address this aspect of the Magic's offense, this series could have been a 5-game Magic victory.

Also important to the Lakers victory is the job they did defensively on Dwight Howard. While Howard had a double-double in all five games and just missed a triple-double by one block in game 4, the Lakers held him below his scoring average and forced him into numerous turnovers. Howard scored 20 points just once in the series and was held to 12 and 11 in games 1 and 5, respectively. Also, Howard had 7 turnovers in both games 2 and 4 (both close losses), and his missed free throws late in the fourth quarter of game 4 gave Fisher the opportunity to tie the game with his late three-pointer.

Overall, the Magic were not consistent enough to defeat the Lakers. Rafer Alston was invisible in LA before finding his shot in game 3 in Orlando. Rashard Lewis played well in games 2 and 3, but shot below 30% for the rest of the series. Hedo Turkoglu played well, but with the rest of the team being held below their scoring averages, it wasn't enough. Jameer Nelson's return to the court appeared to have more of an emotional impact then anything, and Mickael Pietrus, like Alston, disappeared for two games. For a team like the Magic to win, they need to hit their perimeter shots, and when they go cold, like they did for most of the Finals, they are very beatable. Howard could not overcome the Lakers' bigs and the hot streaks disappeared enabling the Lakers to a relatively easy Finals victory.

Above the Rim: NBA Finals Preview

Kobe Bryant will lead the Lakers against Superman Dwight Howard and the Magic in the NBA Finals. While the Magic won both regular season matchups, the Lakers will win this matchup for the championship, cementing Kobe’s legacy with his fourth championship and first without Shaquille O’Neal. Kobe’s detractors will finally have to give him his due and Phil Jackson will finally have his tenth title.

Conference Finals
Eastern- Magic in 6 (my pick- Cavaliers in 5)
Western- Lakers in 6 (my pick- Nuggets in 7)

If the Lakers play smart defensively by not double-teaming Dwight Howard down low, they should win this series easily. However, if they insist on double-teaming Howard, the Magic will make them pay by converting wide-open three-pointers, much like they did in defeating Cleveland. The Magic shot over 40% in three of their four wins in the series. The only time they didn’t shot 40%, they hit 39 of 51 free throws to make up for the lack of three pointers. The Lakers should focus on shutting down Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Rafer Alson, and Mickael Pietrus instead of Dwight Howard. If Howard scores 40 points, but the Magic only hit 5 or 6 three pointers, the Lakers will win the game. However, if the Magic can combine a 25-30 point game from Howard with 10 three pointers, the Lakers may lose this series.

Point Guard- Derek Fisher vs. Rafer Alston
Fisher hasn’t had the best playoffs offensively, but he is a veteran with finals experience which will help the Lakers in this series. Alston is a offensive, shooting point guard who had 18 point and 26 point games against the Cavs in games 3 and 4 of the conference finals. Fisher has scored in the double figures in only 3 of his last 13 games, but he is a savvy veteran and will make Alston work.
Advantage- Lakers

Shooting Guard- Kobe Bryant vs. Courtney Lee
Courtney Lee has hit some big shots for the Magic and has played well, but he is out of his league both offensively and defensively against Kobe. Lee has hit double figures just twice since his sinus injury while Kobe has scored under 20 just three times this postseason (and has scored 40+ three times). Kobe can take over a game, and Lee does not have the defensive skills to cover Kobe. Defensively Kobe will shut Lee down and shouldn’t have to exert himself too much to do so. This will allow Kobe to stay fresher during games and be more of a force offensively. At times against the Nuggets, Kobe looked tired and the Lakers needed Pau Gasol to carry the offensive load. This round, Kobe should be able to stay refreshed and take over when he has to.
Advantage- Lakers

Small Forward- Trevor Ariza vs. Hedo Turkoglu
Ariza is a shut down defender that has come on in the playoffs. He has sealed numerous games with his defense so far and provides enough offense to punish teams for not paying attention to him defensively. Turkoglu is a good player, but highly inconsistent. He can both score and pass, but has limited agility and could struggle with someone like Ariza guarding him. In the conference finals, Turkoglu struggled when LeBron, another lengthy, agile defender, was guarding him, so expect more of the same with Ariza matched up on Hedo.
Advantage- Lakers

Power Forward- Lamar Odom vs. Rashard Lewis
While Odom may not start for the Lakers, he is going to see the majority of minutes at the 4 because he presents the best matchup defensively on Lewis, a quick, athletic power forward with 3-point shooting range. Odom has the quickness and size to matchup on Lewis, something the Cavs lacked when LeBron was on Turkoglu. The Lakers have a better mix of athletic big men than the Cavs and should be able to matchup better defensively. Odom may also be able to score fairly routinely against Lewis as neither player is known for their defensive prowess. If Odom can score 2 points for every 3 points Lewis scores, the Lakers have to feel like that is a win because Kobe will make that up against Lee.
Advantage- Magic

Center- Pau Gasol vs. Dwight Howard
While the Lakers will play Andrew Bynum here at times, Gasol will get most of the minutes. Howard is going to play like a monster in the post, grabbing rebounds, blocking shots, and dunking. To neutralize his effect on the game, the Lakers should concentrate on keeping him off the offensive glass where a lot of his points come from put backs and to drive at him to get him in foul trouble. When the Cavs were effective against Orlando, it was when they were able to minimize Howard’s minutes and aggressiveness by getting him into foul trouble. Howard is going to score 20+ points and grab 12-15 rebounds and that should be ok with the Lakers. Howard scoring 30+ per game shouldn’t be a big deal unless the Magic shooters are hitting a lot of three-pointers. Gasol should also have a good series as his range will force Howard to step out of the paint defensively. Gasol is one of the most skilled big men in the league, and while he can’t match Howard’s strength or athleticism, his passing and shooting ability will be able to counter Howard’s effect.
Advantage- Magic

Bench- Lakers vs. Mickael Pietrus
The only bench player that really matters for Orlando is sniper Pietrus. He outscored Cleveland’s bench by himself in the conference finals, but the Lakers bench is deeper and more effective than the Cavs. Andrew Bynum, Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, Luke Walton, and Sasha Vujacic all give the Lakers quality minutes and offense off the bench. Not only should they be able to match Pietrus’s scoring off the bench, but they will be able to keep the Lakers’ starters fresh while Pietrus will only be able to give Turkoglu, Alston, and Lee breathers. The Lakers have Walton and Bynum down low to spell Gasol and Odom, while the Magic only have Marcin Gortat and Tony Battie to play in the post. Walton and Bynum both have a wide advantage offensively over Gortat and Battie, and Walton has the agility to defend either Lewis or Turkoglu on the perimeter. Vujacic and Brown are both offensive powder kegs that can score in bunched if they get hit, much like Pietrus. Overall, the Lakers have more impact players off the bench and should win this battle.
Advantage- Lakers

The Lakers have the advantage at both guard positions and off the bench, while the Magic own an advantage on the frontline. However, the Lakers advantage at both guard positions is fairly wide, while the margin at small forward and power forward is almost a push because the Lakers matchup well with the Magic at those positions. While the Magic have more skill, the Lakers may be able to neutralize it. While the Magic have Superman in the middle, Gasol is an all-star as well and should be able to counter most of Howard’s offense. Off the bench, if Pietrus has an off game, the Lakers will have a wide advantage in bench scoring and will win that matchup.

Prediction- Lakers in 6, MVP Kobe Bryant

Above the Rim: Conference Finals Edition

Four questions heading into the Conference Finals:
Can anyone beat the Cavaliers?
Are the Lakers going to start playing to their potential?
Can Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony lead the Nuggets to an upset?
Can the Magic hit enough threes to overcome LeBron and the Cavs?

Second Round Results:
Eastern Conference
Cavaliers v. Hawks- Cavs in 4 (my prediction- Cavs in 5)
Celtics v. Magic- Magic in 7 (me- Magic in 6)
Western Conference
Lakers v. Rockets- Lakers in 7 (me- Lakers in 6)
Nuggets v. Mavericks- Nuggets in 5 (me- Nuggets in 6)

Eastern Conference Finals
Cavaliers (1) v. Magic (3)- Magic win regular season 2-1 (home team won every game)
The Magic won the regular season matchup between these two teams, but a few things change in the playoffs. The Cavs will have 4 home games if the series goes to seven games, and the Magic did not win in Cleveland this year. Also, the Cavs have elevated their game to an entirely different level in the playoffs. Actually, since February 11, the Cavs are 35-4 (including 8-0 in the playoffs) and one of those losses was a season ending loss to the 76ers in which LeBron James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Mo Williams didn’t play. Additionally, the Cavs lost two in a row only twice all season, meaning the Magic almost have to win game 1 to take the series.
If the Cavs continue to play at the level they have been at all playoffs, this will be a short series. The Cavs are only giving up 78.125 points per game in the playoffs with their opponents’ high being only 85 (by the Hawks in game 3). The opponent has scored over 80 points in only 4 of 8 games. The offense, on the other hand, has averaged 94.875 so far in the playoffs and scored under 90 only twice. One of the best signs for the Cavs is how well they have played as a team. LeBron and Delonte West have both increased their scoring averages in the playoffs, but Williams, Ilgauskas, and Anderson Varejao are well below their averages. The reason the Cavs have overcome this is because their team defense has absolutely throttled the opposition and because at least one Cavalier has stepped up in each game of the playoffs. West has scored over 20 points twice, Joe Smith played like a monster in the Pistons series, and Wally Szczerbiak scored 17 in game 2 against Atlanta. Also, while Williams has scored over 20 points in 3 games, he has been inconsistent thus far in the playoffs, averaging only 14.7 points per game. However, even when Mo is having an off game, he still hits big shots. For example, despite scoring only 12 points and turning the ball over 4 times in game 4 against Atlanta, he hit 4 of 7 three-pointers including a big three to seal the win. The Cavs team mentality has allowed them to win big despite not everyone playing well currently. Despite the decrease in scoring from some of their key players, this is by far the best any team has played all season long.
The Magic need everything to click to beat the Cavs in this series. Dwight Howard should be able to score 20 points per game against Ilguaskas, Varejao, Smith, and Ben Wallace, but with 4 post players, the Cavs have 24 fouls to use on Howard to force him to the free throw line. The Cavs will be focused more on containing the Magic’s stable of perimeter shooters. To overcome the Cavs suffocating defense, the Magic will need Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Rafer Alston, Mickael Pietrus, Courtney Lee, and J.J. Redick to consistently hit their shots from three point range. The Magic relied heavily on the 3 in the regular season, hitting 10 of 26 per game for just over 38%. In the playoffs, they are 7.3 of 22.6 for 32.5%. To beat Cleveland, they will need to shoot closer to 38% because the Cavs will stifle the Magic’s offense. If the Magic can shoot consistently from the perimeter, they have a chance to knock Cleveland off, but if they are around 33%, the Cavs will win this series.
Prediction- Cavs in 5

Western Conference Finals
Lakers (1) v. Nuggets (2)- Lakers win regular season 3-1
In the regular season, there was a wide gap between the #1 seed Lakers and the rest of the West. In the playoffs, the gap has appeared to close considerably as the #5 seed Rockets took the Lakers to seven games, winning two games after Yao Ming went down with a broken foot. The Nuggets have stepped up their game winning eight of ten in the first two rounds, absolutely dominating the Hornets in round 1 and losing just a close game to the Mavericks in round 2. In the playoffs, the Nuggets are the only team to avoid a letdown game other than the Cavaliers. The Lakers, on the other hand, repeatedly have had letdown games, blowing a 17 point lead to the Jazz in round 1 for their only loss of the series and then dropping game 1 in LA to the Rockets. After Yao went down, the Rockets still won 2 of 4 games. The Lakers inconsistency shows the most in games 5, 6, and 7. In game 5, they won by 40 and were winning by 31 late in game 7, but in game 6, the Rockets dominated from start to finish to stretch the series. The Lakers are (should be) the best team in the West, but the best team is not supposed to play with such inconsistency and should have easily put away a Rockets team that was playing without its only two centers with Yao and Dikembe Mutumbo out. I was very disappointed with the Lakers in this series. While the Rockets matched up with the Lakers well, the way the Lakers lost some of those games was very disappointing. If the Lakers play this way against the Nuggets, they will lose this series before game 7.
In this series, the Nuggets could give the Lakers some matchup problems. Carmelo Anthony should be able to have his way with Luke Walton, but may have some difficulty when Trevor Ariza matches up with him. Chauncey Billups should also be able to have a good series with Derek Fisher matching up against him. Billups is better than Aaron Brooks who just finished dominating Fisher. In the post, the Lakers have Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom, and while all three have played well in the last few games, the Nuggets possess better interior defenders than the depleted Rockets. Nene, Kenyon Martin, and Chris Anderson supply a complementary package of energy, agility, and toughness. Nene will provide scoring and efficiency on the offensive end and contribute rebounds as well as over a steal and a block per game on the defensive end. Martin, of Mark Cuban’s comments aside, will provide physicality inside that Gasol and Bynum will not like. As skilled as the Lakers big men are, none are considered tough physical players. Martin will be able to take them out of their offensive games and will use his strength to score inside and grab some rebounds. Anderson is going to give the Lakers fits when they try to drive. He averaged 2.5 blocks per game in only 20 minutes and will not only match up well with any of the Lakers’ bigs, but will also make Kobe and the Lakers think twice about driving when he is waiting to swat their shot. J.R. Smith and Linas Kleiza join Anderson off the bench to create a much more formidable bench then the Rockets had. Both Smith and Kleiza can shoot the lights out when they get going, and Smith can match anyone in the league in athleticism. The weak link for the Nuggets is Dahntay Jones who will draw Kobe Bryant defensively. At 6’6”, Jones has the size to play with Kobe, and he showed his defensive quickness by containing Chris Paul in the first round, but Kobe is a different breed of scorer. If Jones can prevent Kobe from going for 30, the Nuggets should win, but if Kobe gets going, the Nuggets will be in trouble. The key for the Nuggets will be to shut down the post players. If Nene, Martin, and Anderson can harass Gasol, Bynum, and Odom, Kobe may have to average 40 a game for the Lakers to win. Don’t underestimate the importance of this matchup because the Nuggets have a legitimate chance of beating the Lakers if they can contain the post.
The Lakers, more than anything else in this series, need Bynum to show up. When they won big against Houston, Bynum had a productive game and stayed out of foul trouble. The games in which they struggled, Bynum didn’t play much with foul trouble. When the Lakers play to their potential, they are as good as anyone in the NBA, but they haven’t showed the ability to maintain that level of play. Championship teams have that killer instinct where they can put teams away quickly. The Lakers didn’t show that when Yao went down. The Lakers should have reeled off two straight to put that series away. Instead, the Rockets managed to split 4 games. If the Lakers can find their rhythm, they will win this series, but if the bench and Bynum continue to play inconsistently, Fisher continues to struggle, and even Kobe continues to have some letdown games, the Lakers will be sent home early and avoid a dream matchup with the Cavs.
Prediction- Nuggets in 7

Above the Rim: Playoff Update

The first round of the NBA playoffs gave us some blowouts (Cavs-Pistons, Nuggets-Hornets) and a classic (Bulls-Celtics). Overall, there was only one real upset, the Mavericks knocking off the shorthanded Spurs. With the second round kicking off yesterday, here is a look at the next round.

First round results:
Eastern Conference
Cavs in 4 (my prediction- Cavs in 5)
Celtics in 7 (me- Bulls in 6)
Magic in 6 (me- Magic in 6)
Hawks in 7 (me- Hawks in 5)
Western Conference
Lakers in 5 (me- Lakers in 5)
Nuggets in 5 (me- Nuggets in 5)
Mavericks in 5 (me- Mavericks in 7)
Rockets in 6 (me- Rockets in 6)

Eastern Conference
Cavaliers (1) vs. Hawks (4); regular season- Cavs 2-1
Prediction- Cavaliers in 5
The Cavs have not played since April 26th, but this is not a team to get lazy and by unprepared, despite the long layoff. The veterans on this team (Joe Smith and Zydrunas Ilgauskas for example), along with LeBron James, will not let this team suffer a letdown. I expect the Cavs to come out fired up on Tuesday for game 1 and pick up where they left off against the Pistons. With the first two games in Cleveland where the Cavs are 41-2, including the playoffs, this year, the Hawks could be in for a couple of long games. After a bruising seven game series against the Heat that left Al Horford and Marvin Williams battered, the Hawks will not be 100% for this series. The Hawks are an improvement over Detroit and should be competitive in two games in Atlanta where I expect them to give the Cavs their first loss of the playoffs, but Cleveland will end this series in game 5 back in Cleveland.
The Hawks do have a younger, more athletic team than the Pistons, but Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, and Mike Bibby will not be able to give the Cavs a serious test in round 2. The Cavs have too much talent and depth. With Delonte West and Mo Williams having rough opening series against Detroit, LeBron James played like a monster, but had solid support from Ilgauskas and Smith. Joe Smith (aka Joe Beast on his new rap album) showed why the Cavs picked him up after the Thunder bought him out. Smith was arguably the Cavs second best player in the series.
Look for Williams and West to bounce back in this series and LeBron to continue his dominance; he is playing like a man possessed right now. Smith, Bibby, and Johnson should make the series more competitive than the Pistons in round 1, but the Cavs are by far the superior team and are well rested. The chance of a sweep in this series is better than the Hawks chance at an upset.

Celtics (2) vs. Magic (3); regular season- 2-2 (Magic won the last two)
Prediction- Magic in 6
The Celtics were banged up going into the playoffs with Kevin Garnett, then they lost Leon Powe in their first round series with the Bulls. Stephon Marbury has not been effective since the Celtics picked him up. Point guard Rajon Rondo’s ankle may not be 100% either. On top of all this, the Celtics are coming off of a brutal seven game series with the Bulls that featured 4 overtime games and 7 overtime periods. The Magic are looking good after beating the Sixers in 6 games, including game 6 without Dwight Howard who was suspended. If the Magic can get their shooters (Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Rafer Alston) hot, they will be very tough to beat in the playoffs. Courtney Lee should be back from his fractured sinus and J.J. Reddick (15 points on 5-7 shooting from 3-point range) played well in game 6 when he replaced him in the starting lineup.
The Celtics will be tough in this series, but the extra time and hits from this series will wear on them as this series goes longer.
The most important match-up in this series is Kendrick Perkins against Dwight Howard. Perkins needs to stay out of foul trouble for the Celtics to win this series. Against the Bulls, the Celtics struggled without Perkins in the game because there was no interior defender to intimidate the Bulls. If Perkins misses time with foul trouble, Dwight Howard will have a monster series. If Perkins can play 40-45 minutes a game, the Celtics may have a chance to pull this series out. Any production offensively from Perkins would be nice, but if he can neutralize Howard’s impact in the paint and on the boards while picking up some rebounds and discouraging the rest of the Magic from driving, he could help the Celtics win this series. Without Perkins, the Celtics will have to get outstanding shooting from Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Eddie House to pull this one out. Even with good series from those shooters, the Celtics will have to contain the Magic’s stable of shooters as well. Expect a good series, but the Celtics will get worn down and lose the last few games to get eliminated.

Western Conference
Lakers (1) vs. Rockets (5); regular season- Lakers 4-0
Prediction- Lakers in 6
I know the Lakers swept the season series against the Rockets, but this Houston team has just started playing well together. Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowery have stepped up their games down the stretch after the Rockets traded Alston to the Magic, and the front line rotation of Shane Battier, Yao Ming, Luis Scola, and Ron Artest may be one of the strongest frontlines in the league. Those four players are what I think should scare the Lakers in this series. The Rockets just beat a very good Blazers team in just 5 games, and they will not be intimidated by the Lakers. The Rockets matchup with the Lakers very well defensively. Artest will make this series extremely frustrating for Kobe Bryant and if he needs a break, Battier is one of the best defensive players in the league. In the post, Yao’s length should bother Pau Gasol, and Luis Scola is tough and physical and should neutralize Andrew Bynum. That leaves Battier and Artest to guard Lamar Odom, another favorable matchup for the Rockets. Lakers point guard Derek Fisher should have an edge on Brooks and Lowery, and the Lakers bench of Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, Trevor Ariza, and Shannon Brown (and Luke Walton if he can play) should have their way with the Rockets bench of Von Wafer, Lowery, and Carl Landry.
For the Rockets to win this series, their veteran post players and Artest need to have big series both offensively and defensively. This team gets after it defensively, so the Rockets could make the series interesting, but overall, there isn’t enough firepower to knock off the Lakers. This will be the Lakers hardest series until the NBA finals though.
The Lakers will rely heavily on their stars, Kobe and Gasol, to pull them through the tough defense in this series. They have been here before and they want the burden of putting the team on their backs and leading them back to the finals. Fisher and Odom are also veterans that know what it takes to buckle down and do what it takes to get it done in the playoffs. But the key to this series will be how Kobe plays against Artest and how the Lakers bench plays against the Rockets. On paper, the Lakers should win these matchups and take the series, but Artest has played very well this season and could surprise everyone and play Kobe close to even. If that happens the Lakers will need their deep, but occasionally streaky bench to execute and give the Lakers the edge in this series. Don’t be surprised if this is a low scoring, physical series with a lot of close games. The Lakers should win, but if the Rockets get a couple of breaks early in the series, the Lakers could be in for a scare.

Nuggets (2) vs. Mavericks (6); regular season- 4-0 Nuggets; series currently 1-0 Denver
Prediction- Nuggets in 6
The Nuggets won the regular season matchup 4-0, but two of those games were decided by 2 points and a third by 3. The Mavericks were also banged up in the regular season, notably with Josh Howard battling injuries. The Mavs looked good in the opening round against the Spurs, winning in 5 games. Down the stretch and into the playoffs, the Mavericks started playing very well as they got healthy and are a dangerous 6 seed. However, the Mavs are only seven deep. They rely heavily on the scoring of Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, and 6th man Jason Terry and the dual point guard play of Jason Kidd and Jose Juan Barea. Erick Dampier and Brandon Bass are also key contributors for this team with Dampier providing toughness and rebounding in the post and Bass contributing off the bench. Antoine Wright also contributes, but the Mavs don’t expect much from the rest of their squad.
The Nuggets, on the other hand, have a ton of depth. Starters Chauncey Billups, Dahntay Jones, Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin, and Nene Hilario play together very well, and, with the exception of Jones, a defensive specialist, all are effective scorers. Off the bench, J.R. Smith matches Terry’s production, but the Nuggets add Linas Kleiza’s shooting, Anthony Carter’s ballhandling and penetrating ability, and Chris “Birdman” Anderson’s energy to the mix. The Mavericks have no answer for this trio of depth and versatility in skills. Anderson is the X-factor of this group as he can effectively shut down the lane when he is in the game. At 6’10” (without the mohawk) and a longer wingspan, Anderson controls the boards and has an affinity for blocking shots. While Kidd and Barea like to drive, they need to think twice with the Birdman waiting to swat their shots as soon as it leaves their hand. In game 1, Anderson picked up 11 points, but his 6 rebounds led the team and he also blocked 6 shots. With two point guards that like to penetrate, the Mavericks need to hope Anderson doesn’t do this every game or it could be a quick series. When you watch Anderson play, it appears that his favorite thing to do is block shots, which is probably why he picks up a few goaltending violations in many games, but that aggressiveness could win this series for the Nuggets.
Unless Nowitzki and Howard explode in this series, the Nuggets should continue to roll into a matchup with the Lakers, but they won’t average 20+ per victory over the Mavericks like they did against New Orleans. The Mavericks will keep the series competitive, but, like with the Lakers series, the bench will make the difference for the Nuggets leading to an intriguing matchup of deep teams in the Western Conference finals.

Above the Rim: Playoff Preview

With three 62 win teams this season in the NBA, the Finals appear to be shaping up for an epic battle. We are either looking at a rematch of the 62 win Celtics and the 65 win Lakers or a showdown of LeBron and the 66 win Cavaliers and Kobe and the Lakers. The road to get to this showdown should be entertaining as well. In the West, all 8 seeds have won at least 48 games with six teams winning 50. While the East is not as deep and balanced, the field is stronger than past years with 7 (which is actually an improvement over past years) teams finishing .500 and two 60 win teams. The top three seeds, Cleveland, Boston, and Orlando, should give us round after round of titanic clashes to keep our interest high for the NBA’s grueling 40 games in 40 nights marathon.

Eastern Conference
Cavaliers (1) v. Pistons (8)- Cavs win season series 3-1; series 1-0 Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are the front-runner coming out of the Eastern Conference. After enduring injuries to 3 starters this season, the team is finally 100% heading into the playoffs as Ben Wallace returned for Game 1 against the Pistons. The Cavs may be the deepest team in the East with starters LeBron James (28.4 points per game), Mo Williams (17.8 ppg), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (12.9 ppg), Delonte West (11.7 ppg), and Anderson Varejao (8.6 ppg) all contributing at both ends of the court. Off the bench, the Cavs add Daniel Gibson (7.8 ppg), Wally Szczerbiak (7 ppg), Joe Smith (6.5 ppg), and Sasha Pavlovic (4.6 ppg) to provide scoring and perimeter shooting as well as Ben Wallace and Darnell Jackson for rebounding and toughness. Put it all together and you get the best record in the NBA as well as the league’s best defense, finishing first in opponent’s points per game, first in opponent’s FG% and first in opponent’s 3-point %. By scoring 100.3 points per game on offense, the Cavs also have the league’s widest margin of victory. Finally, with a 39-2 record at home and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, it will be difficult to knock the Cavs off.
Detroit is definitely not the team that can beat the Cavs. The Cavs have won the last 3 games between the two teams leading into the playoffs and held the Pistons to 80 points or less in all three games, which they managed to top with 84 in game 1. Although the Pistons have made the last 5 Conference Championship series, that streak will end this season. Richard Hamilton (18.3 ppg), Tayshaun Prince (14.2 ppg), and Rodney Stuckey (13.4 ppg) could score enough to steal a game in Detroit, but the aging Antonio McDyess and the volatile Rasheed Wallace will be ineffective in this series against the Cavs depth and versatility in the post. For Detroit, this series will give Stuckey and Bynum some experience that might help the Pistons rebound back to contention next season.
Prediction- Cavs in 5; the Pistons will win one game in Detroit, but this series will not be close. The most entertaining things to watch for in this series will be LeBron’s highlight reel and the countdown for a Rasheed Wallace technical (I’m predicting at least 2).

Celtics (2) v. Bulls (7)- Boston wins season 2-1; series 1-0 Bulls
The Bulls are a very dangerous team heading into the playoffs. They remade their entire team with some trades in February and the team has been pretty hot since then. The Bulls went 5-1 in April and then knocked off the Celtics in overtime to open their playoff series. Since the trade, the Bulls have become much deeper and are one of the better offensive teams in the Eastern Conference by averaging over 102 points per game. Shooting Guard Ben Gordon leads the way with 20.7 points per game. Acquisitions John Salmons (18.3 ppg) and Brad Miller (11.8 ppg) have blended well with holdovers like Gordon, Rookie of the Year candidate Derrick Rose (16.8 ppg), the much improved Tyrus Thomas (10.9) and back-up guard Kirk Hinrich (10.4 ppg). Big man Joakim Noah contributes 9.9 ppg and energetic play on defense and on the offensive boards.
The Bulls new found depth counters the Celtics shrinking roster. Kevin Garnett missing this series is going to hurt the Celtics a lot more than most people think. They needed his toughness, both physically and mentally, to compete with Miller, Thomas, and Noah down low. While Glen Davis is skilled, when things don’t go right, he can get frustrated very easily and get taken out of his game. The Celtics are going to need huge series from stars Paul Pierce (20.5 ppg) and Ray Allen (15.8 ppg) to hang with the Bulls. Other starters Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins will need to step up their games to counter offensive output of the Bulls. Bench players Eddie House and Leon Powe will also be big in this series. House is the third guard in the Celtics rotation. If he plays well, the Celtics should be able to play with the Bulls dynamic backcourt. If House has a poor series, then Gordon, Rose, and Hinrich could really hurt the Celtics by outscoring Allen and Rondo. Powe will need to be big to make up for the loss of Garnett in the post. Despite the Celtics winning 62 games this season, this series is very dangerous for Boston. The Bulls beat Boston 127-121 the only time they played since the trade. Garnett also missed that game. This series looks exactly the same with the Bulls playing well with their new rotation and the Celtics thin with Garnett hurt.
Prediction- Bulls in 6; this will be the upset of the playoffs. The Bulls will take advantage of the absence of Garnett. In the second round, the Bulls will push the Cavs more than any team in the East before losing.

Magic (3) v. 76ers (6)- Orlando wins season 3-0; series 1-0 Sixers
This is one of the more lopsided matchups in the playoffs. The Magic, with Dwight Howard and awesome 3-point shooting, against the Sixers, whose best post player is Samuel Dalembert and one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league.
Even with PG Jameer Nelson out, the Magic still have Howard (20.6 points per game), Rashard Lewis (17.7 ppg and 39.7% from 3-point range), Hedo Turkoglu (16.8 ppg and 35.6% from three), and Rafer Alston (12 ppg and 31.7% from 3). After those four, role players Mickael Pietrus, Courtney Lee, JJ Redick, Keith Bogans, and Anthony Johnson all average between 4.8 and 9.4 ppg and shoot between 33.3% and 40.4% from three point range. That depth will give the 76ers fits in this series. With Howard’s rebounding and shot-blocking and the Magic averaging 101.1 points per game, the Magic are one of the more complete and dangerous teams in the playoffs.
On the other side, The Sixers shoot only 31.8% from three-point range as a team with veteran backup Donyell Marshall (45.5%) the only player shooting over 35%. Also, while Dalembert blocks 1.8 shots per game, his 6.4 points per game is not going to come close to matching Howard’s production and he will not be able to contain Howard defensively. The Sixers will rely on the shooting and penetration of Andre Iguodala (18.8 points per game), Andre Miller (16.3 ppg), Thaddeus Young (15.3 ppg) and Louis Williams (12.8 ppg). The good news for the Sixers is that all four of these players are capable of scoring consistently and that their versatility on the perimeter may contain the Magic’s abundance of shooters. Also, although the Magic won all three matchups this season, 2 in Philadelphia, the margins were 10, 6, and 2, so the Sixers were able to keep the games close. However, the Sixers lost 6 in a row in April before beating the Cavs’ 2nd and 3rd string in the season finale to back into the playoffs.
In this series, the Sixers need to contain the outside shooting of the Magic and get a lot of scoring from Miller, Iguodala, Young, and Williams to win. Howard is going to average at least 22 points, 14 rebounds, and a few blocks no matter how well Dalembert can guard him. The key will be to keep Howard from going for 35-15 on a consistent basis.
Prediction- Magic in 6; if the Sixers can keep games close and not rely on three pointers to get back in the game, they should be able to extend the series. (after writing this article, I saw that the Sixers took game 1, 100-98. The Sixers shot 58.3% from three-point range and overcame Howard scoring 31 points and getting 16 rebounds. Miller, Iguodala, Young, and Williams combined for 57 points.)

Hawks (4) v. Heat (5)- Atlanta wins season 3-1; series 1-0 Hawks
The Hawks gained invaluable experience in their 7 game series with the Celtics last year. This season, it showed as they improved to 47 wins and the #4 seed in the East. Home court advantage will be big in this series as the Hawks won both games in Atlanta between these teams this season and split two games in Miami. Guards Joe Johnson (21.4 points per game), Mike Bibby (14.9 ppg), and Flip Murray (12.2 ppg) can all create their own shot on offense and post players Josh Smith (14.9 ppg), Marvin Williams (13.9 ppg), and Al Horford (11.5 ppg) can all score around the basket. The Hawks biggest weakness is the drop off in production after those six players. Maurice Evans (7.2 ppg) and Zaza Pachulia (6.3 ppg) are the only other players that average more than 3 points per game. Defensively, Horford and Smith combine for 3 blocks per game and can affect numerous shots with their athleticism.
The Heat, as Charles Barkley claims, are Michael Jackson and a bunch of Titos. They need Dwayne Wade to absolutely dominate this series to have any chance to win. The Heat do have some adequate scoring behind Wade, but their team goes as he goes. Michael Beasley (13.9 ppg), Jermaine O’Neal (13 ppg), Udonis Haslem (10.6 ppg), Mario Chalmers (10 ppg), and 6th Man Daequan Cook (9.2 ppg) will need to play well for the Heat to hang with the Hawks. Even if Wade scores 30 points per game, the Heat will need a big series from at least one or two of these other players to win the series. Defensively, Wade and O’Neal should be able to match the Hawks athletic front court with about 3 blocks per game.
During the regular season, Atlanta won 3 of 4 against Miami, including one in Miami (the home team won the other three. The margin was within 8 points in all 4 games. However, the Heat did not make the playoffs last season and their young roster does not have the postseason experience that the Hawks boast after last season’s playoffs.
Prediction- Hawks in 5; Wade gets the Heat one victory, but he can’t carry the Heat to an upset in the series.

Eastern Conference Finals
Cavaliers v. Magic- Cavs in 6
The Magic and the Cavs have played each other well this season, but the Magic were not able to defeat the Cavs in Cleveland. LeBron takes his game to the next level in the playoffs and the Cavs are finally healthy for the first time since the first few months of the season. Orlando won the season series 2-1 with the home team winning all three games. However, the Cavs were banged up in both losses. With a healthy team smelling the postseason, the Cavs will take their game to the next level and knock off the Magic.

Western Conference
Lakers (1) v. Jazz (8)- LA wins season 2-1; series 1-0 Lakers
The Jazz have only won 2 road games against teams that finished the regular season with a .500 record (at Philadelphia in November and at New Orleans in April). Overall Utah is just 15-26 on the road. That isn’t a good sign for a team that will need to win at least one game in Los Angeles where the Lakers were 36-5 this season. The matchup isn’t good for the Jazz either. While Deron Williams will be able to play his game and control Derek Fisher, Utah has no answer for Kobe. Ronnie Brewer will have to play the series of his life to contain Bryant and hold him under 25 points per game and even if he does, Utah will still need its quintet of post players to prevent Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom from scoring easy buckets around the hoop. While Mehmet Okur (17 points per game), Carlos Boozer (16.2 ppg in 37 games), Paul Millsap (13.5 ppg), and Andrei Kirilenko (11.6 ppg) all scored in double figures this year and Matt Harpring (4.4 ppg) provided energy and toughness down low as well, these players don’t have the size to stop the Lakers down low and Kirilenko may be the only one agile enough to stay with Trevor Ariza.
On the other hand, the Lakers have been playing extremely well in the second half of the season and are welcoming Andrew Bynum back into the lineup after he missed a sizeable part of the season with a knee injury. After rehabbing with some Playboy bunnies, Bynum looks to be ready to contribute in the playoffs and return to his 14.3 point, 8 rebound, and 1.8 block performances. Add that level of contribution to Kobe (26.8 ppg), Gasol (18.9 ppg), Odom (11.4 ppg), Fisher (9.9 ppg), and Ariza (8.9 ppg), and the Lakers look to be one of the more dynamic offenses in the West, averaging 106.9 points per game this season, good for third in the NBA and first among playoff teams. Couple that with the Jazz surrendering 100.9 points per game, one of only 3 playoff teams to give up over 100 (Chicago and Denver), and this could be a quick, ugly series.
For the Jazz to win this series, they need Boozer to quickly return to all-star form, which has not happened yet this season. Maybe the motivation of free agency will entice Boozer again, as it has in the past. Additionally, the Jazz need big series on offense from Williams and defense from Brewer. If Brewer can contain Kobe and cause him to force bad shots (which Kobe does fall into from time to time) the Jazz might be able to stay close in this series. Finally, if Andrew Bynum is not effective coming back from his injury, that could also close the gap. Even if all of these “ifs” happen, it will still be an uphill battle for the Jazz to win this series. The Lakers have home court and an unbelievable amount of depth.
Prediction- Lakers in 5, the Jazz will win one in Salt Lake City, but most of the losses will be by double-digits.

Nuggets (2) v. Hornets (7)- season tied 2-2; series 1-0 Nuggets
Homecourt advantage will not have as big an effect on this series as both teams were 21-20 on the road and were difficult to beat at home. The Nuggets only finished 5 games ahead of the Hornets in the regular season, so it is not a typical 2-7 matchup.
The Hornets are led by their pair of all-stars, Chris Paul and David West. Both players averaged over 20 points per game this season, but the matchups in this series may slow them down. Paul will be matched up against Mr. Big Shot Chauncey Billups who still has a few years left on his tires and brings a wealth of playoff experience. Billups is also a bigger guard which could be an effective defense to Paul’s speed. In the post, Chauncey will have a distinct advantage and should be able to play Paul fairly physical and bump him off his game a little bit. For West, he will run into a trio of defensive stalwarts in the post. Kenyon Martin will start out on West, but Chris Anderson and Renaldo Balkman off the bench are both outstanding defenders. Anderson is agile and has the length to block shots while Balkman has relentless energy and should harass and frustrate West throughout the series. The rest of the Hornets need to find their stride soon or this could be a quick series. Peja Stojakovic has not shot the ball well this season and finished with a shooting percentage under 40% for the year and Tyson Chandler has been banged up all season. Last year, the Hornets had four potential all-stars; this year just two. The addition of James Posey should help as he may guard 6th Man candidate and offensive powder keg J.R. Smith and Rasual Butler will hit some shots, but the Nuggets will have too much firepower in this series.
In addition to Billups and the post defense mentioned above, the Nuggets have another weapon known simply as ‘Melo. Carmelo Anthony averaged 22.8 points per game this season and will be matched up with either Butler or Stojakovic, neither of whom can guard Anthony. If Anthony and Billups need help on offense, Coach George Karl can bring Smith and his 15.2 ppg average off the bench. Smith has two 40 point games and two 30 point games this season, so he can light it up if either of those two players has an off game. Finally, at center the Nuggets have the efficient Nene Hilario. Nene shot over 60% from the field this year and averaged 14.6 ppg to go with over 7 rebounds. If Chandler is not 100%, Nene could be the X-factor in the post for the Nuggets, converting easy baskets to supplement the abundance of scoring talent on the wings.
Prediction- Nuggets in 5. The Hornets will win at least one game at home and could stretch this series to 6 games by stealing a second. To win the series, Chris Paul will have to be unstoppable, which he can be, but I don’t feel an upset is likely here.

Spurs (3) v. Mavericks (6)- season tied 2-2; series 1-0 Mavericks
The Mavericks have found their stride lately and could present a difficult matchup for the Spurs, especially with Ginobli out. The Spurs still have Tony Parker and Tim Duncan to carry the load, but the key to their past title runs was having all three of their stars healthy for a playoff run. Without Ginobli, the Spurs have to rely on role players Roger Mason (solid contributor but not Ginobli) and Michael Finley (about 4 seasons to late in his career to adequately replace Manu). Drew Gooden was a good pickup that can score and rebound in the post, but the Spurs look uncharacteristicly thin this playoff.
On the other hand, the Mavericks are hitting on all cylinders now, going 6-2 in April including a 140-116 win over Phoenix and a 130-101 win over Utah. Offensively, the Mavericks have Dirk Nowitzki scoring over 25 points per game, but the return of Josh Howard may be key. Howard returned to play 6 games in April, averaging over 18 points per game in 30 minutes after missing 30 games throughout the season due to injuries. After those two, the Mavericks then bring Jason Terry off the bench to average 19.6 ppg. While the Mavericks may not have a point guard to contain Parker’s quickness, Jason Kidd and Jose Juan Barea should be able to match his offensive production and possibly tire him out as the game progresses, making Parker less effective in crunch time. Role players Brandon Bass (8.5 ppg) and the much improved Gerald Green (5.2 ppg, but he could be developing into the Mavericks’ version of J.R. Smith) provide depth and offense off the bench.
For the Spurs to win this, their 2nd ranked scoring defense will have to contain the Mavericks 9th ranked scoring offense. It should be an interesting matchup, but I have to go against my instincts and go with the offense here. Like the Hornets-Nuggets series, home court will not be a huge factor in this series as each team won a game on the other teams’ home court and the series split 2-2. With the Spurs banged up, I like the Mavericks depth to overcome the Spurs defensive system in a long series.
Prediction- Mavericks in 7. This series will come down to the role players and I like Terry, Barea, Bass, and Green over Mason, Matt Bonner, Finley, and Gooden.

Blazers (4) v. Rockets (5)- Houston wins season 2-1; series 1-0 Rockets
This will be a low scoring series between the 4th ranked defense of the Blazers and the 6th ranked defense of the Rockets. Houston has won 5 of 6 to lead into the playoffs and the team has played better together as the season progressed. Heading into the playoffs, Ron Artest is fully acclimated to playing with the Rockets and the team has adjusted to replacing Rafer Alston with Aaron Brooks in the starting lineup after Alston was traded to the Magic.
This is the best first round matchup in the Western Conference with the young Blazers matching up with the physical and playoff tested (and disappointed) Rockets. The home team won all three regular season matchups, but two of those games were close with Portland winning by 2 at the Rose Garden and Houston winning by 4 in Houston. The most recent matchup was a 14 point Rockets victory. The individual matchups in this series should be interesting as well.
Artest should be matched up with Blazers star Brandon Roy, which could really hurt the Blazers. Artest is one of, if not the best perimeter defenders in the NBA and should be able to contain Roy and hold him below 20 points per game. On the year, Roy averaged 21 points against Houston, but shot below 40% against them, well below the 48% he shot on the year. That could be magnified as Roy plays under the bright lights of the playoffs for the first time in his career. If Artest needs a break or is ineffective, Shane Battier will be able to step in and guard Roy as well. Roy will have a good defender in his face at all times in this series which could severely affect his output. LaMarcus Aldridge played well against Houston, averaging 23.3 points per game, but I expect the defense of Battier, Artest, and Luis Scola to take him off of his game. The playoffs are usually more physical than the regular season, and the Rockets have multiple bodies to throw at Aldridge down low including Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes off the bench. The Blazers are young and inexperienced in the playoffs which will hurt them against a veteran team.
For the Rockets, Yao Ming should have a great series as no one on Portland can match up with him. If they double team, it will result in open looks for PF Scola, who shots over 53% from the floor. Brooks and Artest provide scoring from the wings and backups Kyle Lowry and Von Wafer can both shoot coming off the bench. The Blazers can counter with Travis Outlaw and Sergio Rodriguez off the bench which could lead to an interesting comparison of whose bench plays better. One of the big questions of this series is whether the Rockets can finally make it out of the first round.
In this series, defense will reign. The Rockets veteran savvy and improved play over the course of the season will push them over the hump in a competitive series. The Blazers may be one year away from making a run at the finals.
Prediction- Rockets in 6. This will be a close series and should be fun to watch, but the Rockets physical defense and experience will be the difference in this series.

Western Conference Finals
Lakers v. Rockets- Lakers in 6
The Rockets’ defense will carry them to this series where they will be the only team to challenge the Lakers until the Finals. With Artest guarding Kobe and Yao, Scola, and Battier containing the Lakers bigs in the post, this series could get interesting, but in the long run, the Lakers have too much firepower for the Rockets. Fisher should be able to outplay Brooks at the point in what will prove to be the key matchup as the Rockets will surprisingly play even with the Lakers at the other positions. Rockets Coach Rick Adelman will show why he deserves Coach of the Year with this run, but Houston will come up short as the Lakers march on to the Finals.

NBA Championship
Lakers v. Cavaliers- Cavs in 7
While the Lakers won both regular season games against the Cavs, Ilgauskas only played in one game, Delonte West missed both, and Joe Smith was not on the team yet. With these three players healthy, the Cavs become the better team. However, the Lakers are improved from the team that almost beat the Celtics in the championship last year, and they are the only team to win a game in Cleveland this season when the starters played. This should be an epic showdown that will return the NBA finals to the glory days of the 1980s with Larry Bird against Magic Johnson. As these teams move toward this showdown, don’t be surprised if whispers of the playoffs being fixed for a Cavs-Lakers showdown start swirling. While I usually go for these conspiracy theories, no teams in the NBA match up with either of these powers. This matchup will happen as long as these two teams can stay healthy. When they meet, LeBron and Kobe will put on a show. The Cavs will pull out a tough series with Ilgauskas neutralizing Gasol. The Cavs backcourt of West and Williams will outplay Fisher and Luke Walton giving them the edge. Kobe and LeBron should end up canceling each other out as they both live up their reputations.