Here's a move that I think could go down as one of the top under-the-radar moves of this off-season: this week, the Diamondbacks signed Jon Garland.I've mentioned Garland before, but here's a guy who will slide into the #3 spot in Arizona's rotation behind Brandon Webb and Dan Haren that was a Cy Young candidate in 2005, helping the White Sox win the World Series. First off, let me just say that the NL West is a very winnable division and I think this move gives the division to Arizona, providing they can find an offense somewhere. Pitching wins championships and when you can pencil a former 18-game winner that doesn't walk a ton of guys into your rotation behind two perennial Cy Young candidates, you're in good shape. Not to mention, most pitchers not named Zito do better in the National League than in the American League, so Garland's high ERA is bound to drop.
If you're thinking fantasy, Garland would be a great late-round pickup that will be good for at least 13 wins if Arizona finds ways to score - but that's a big IF right now. What I don't like about Garland is that he gives up too many hits, but again, the move to the NL should shrink his higher numbers from batters against, making him a nice sleeper.
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I don't know about Garland. He has only had a sub 4.00 ERA once in his career as a full-time starter. The NL West is certainly not known for its offense, but Chase Field is considered a hitters park (had 2nd worst park ranking for pitchers in terms of runs last season). Garland also lets up a lot of home runs and a ton of hits as he has had an average at best WHIP outside of the '05 season (which I consider a bit of a fluke considering his performance before and after). Compound all that with sub-average strikeout totals and really all you get is a pitcher with average stuff, but good control. I think that he is a serviceable 4th man to a rotation (could do as a third, but I'm sure the D-Backs are hoping Scherzer fills that role by seasons end), but doesn't have too much fantasy value with a low ceiling. There isn't much risk to the pick though as you pretty much know what you are going to get.
I would personally wait longer and take the risky pick of Max Scherzer later in your draft. It should be interesting to see how Garland's numbers translate to the National League.
Scherzer would certainly be a good late-round pickup, but you're right about the risk. It's hard for anyone to trust a guy that has 56 career innings pitched in the majors and less than 200 innings pitched as a professional. If Arizona has any dreams of October, Garland needs to succeed.
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