The Joe Mauer Contract Extension Talks Heat Up

On Monday, it was rumored that Twins catcher Joe Mauer had signed a 10 year contract extension to stay in Minnesota.  While that rumor has since been refuted, the Twins and the reigning AL MVP are making progress on a contract extension.  Somewhere, thousands of Yankee and Red Sox fans are a bit disappointed. 

If Mauer does sign a contract extension to spend the prime of his career in Minnesota, Yankee and Red Sox fans should be disappointed that they miss out on one of baseball's best player, but fans of the game of baseball should be thankful.  As a Yankee fan, it's fun for me to watch my team go get just about anyone they want by throwing money at players.  It's fun to think about who the Yankees will sign in the off-season and how good he will make the team.  As a baseball fan, though, I realize how horrible it is for the game for the Yankees to do that. 

I hope Joe Mauer stays in Minnesota for a very long time.  He's a great player and teams not named the Yankees deserve great players.  In fact, the Yankees probably shouldn't be able to have that many great players.  They can sign whoever they want because they play in a big market and have money.  To level the playing field, baseball needs a salary cap and a salary floor.  Teams like the Yankees should not be able to spend $500 million during one off-season on CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett.  On the other hand, teams like the Marlins should have to spend money on someone. 

What about Johnny?

There's a free agent leftfielder who hit .282 with 24 home runs and 82 RBI last year.  Some teams have kicked the tires on him, but ultimately no one has been very aggressive in trying to sign him.  Why not?

His team last year considered re-signing him, but not for the length or the money the player's agent wanted.  Over the last three years he hit .285 with an on-base percentage of .364 in addition to 53 home runs and 216 RBI.  Not bad.  The downside? He'll be 36 this year.

I think it's pretty obvious I'm talking about Johnny Damon (especially because of the picture!), a key part of the Yankees' 27th World Series crown.  Scott Boras has wanted a multi-year deal for Damon worth about $12 million a year.  The problem is that no one seems interested in paying that.  In addition to the Yankees, the Braves and Giants had expressed interest in Damon.  With the Giants signings of Mark DeRosa and Bengie Molina, it's likely they're out of the running.  The Yankees have claimed they only have $2 million left to spend, but many experts contend that's still Damon's most likely destination. 

What we're seeing with Damon is part of a larger movement as teams seem to be moving away from older players towards younger, more athletic (and cheaper) players.  We saw it last year with Bobby Abreu signing for one year and $5 million with the Angels.  This year, Hideki Matsui and Vladimir Guerrero signed similarly valued contracts.  Despite the productivity of such older players, teams have started to realize that a decline is inevitable and they aren't offering long-term, expensive deals anymore.  I fully expect Damon to be on someone's roster by spring training and probably for a similar deal.

The Lincecum Arbitration Case

By age 25, only one pitcher not named Tim Lincecum had collected more hardware.  By age 25, Roger Clemens had earned two Cy Youngs and a league MVP award.  Lincecum earned his second Cy Young award in 2009 and will likely take his hardware with him to an arbitration hearing this winter in an effort to try to earn a raise from his $650,000 a year salary.  For those unfamiliar with baseball's basic compensation structure, a player is under team control for six years.  The first three are years in which the player is not eligible for arbitration, the so-called "pre-arb" years.  In the pre-arb years, the team can basically renew the player for a minimal salary.  After those three years, the player becomes eligible for arbitration.  A team submits what it thinks the player is worth, the player's agent does the same and the arbitrator picks one of the two numbers.  There's a good chance the player and team avoid arbitration by signing a deal before the hearing is set to begin. 

In the arbitration system, both sides seek to compare the player to what it thinks are comparable players.  With Lincecum, who is his modern day contemporary?  There is no one as good and as young as he is.  For that reason, I expect Lincecum's side to ask for a ridiculous amount of money.  It's hard to argue that he doesn't deserve it.  In his career, he's 40-17 with an ERA under 3.00 and 676 strikeouts in 598.2 innings.  That's a 25 year old.  Since Felix Hernandez just signed a new contract, there's a good chance that comes into play when arguing over Lincecum's next deal.  Hernandez, however, doesn't have any Cy Youngs. 

When Clemens was 25, he made $1.35 million.  I fully expect Lincecum to make around $10 million, but I also think the case won't reach arbitration and it will be settled before numbers are exchanged. 

Baseball Roundup: Hall of Fame, Chapman, McGwire

Hall of Fame Passes on Alomar
The Baseball Writers Association of America (BWAA) continues to demonstrate that they are incapable of selecting the right players to get elected to the Hall of Fame.  For some reason, there is some sort of distinction to them between a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer and someone elected on a different ballot.  Roberto Alomar is one of the best second basemen of all-time but yet, he fell short by a handful of votes.  I expect him to make it in next year with no issue, but he should have gotten in this year.  Why does one year make a difference to the voters?  There is nothing on a player's plaque that indicates how many ballots he was on before getting elected.  He won't accumulate any more hits between now and next year.  I just don't get it.  Speaking of one year making a difference, Bert Blyleven fell five votes short of election.  When he was first on the ballot, he only earned 17% of the vote.  Now, 12 years later, he's up to 74%.  That makes no sense to me.  How do writers decide to vote for a guy one year after saying "no thanks" for several years before?  It's such a frustrating process.


Chapman to the Reds
Over the weekend, the Reds reached an agreement with Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman.  There is no doubt that he throws hard, but his control is suspect, according to scouts that have watched him throw.  I will applaud the Reds for actually going out and spending money on a free agent, but I don't think Chapman deserves the six years, $30 million he got.  I see him as more of a long term project and I wouldn't be surprised to see him start out the season in AA or AAA, maybe not even getting called up until September or 2011.  ESPN analyst Tim Kurkjian called Chapman "raw" and if that description is accurate, Cincinnati better be ready to allow Chapman to develop.

McGwire Comes Clean
You want to know why all the "experts" say America is willing to forgive athletes who took steroids?  Because we're so tired of hearing about it.  I honestly don't care what Mark McGwire took and I formed my own opinion of him a long time ago.  I think most people feel the same way.  I'm tired of the analysis of every word of every apology speech, trying to find loopholes in rhetoric or better yet, lies.  I've said it before in this space - during a stretch of the game's history, a lot of players were not clean.  We should judge those players against their peers, not against other great players, and remember that their numbers could possibly be inflated.  I'm glad McGwire finally came clean and I hope he's able to move on with the rest of his life and his new job as the Cardinals' hitting coach.   

Predicting the MLB Hall of Fame Voting Results

Once MLB announces its yearly awards and some of the bigger name free agents start to find new homes, the baseball winter seems to drag on.  The one thing that does sneak up on baseball fans each winter is the Hall of Fame voting.  This year's results are announced tomorrow, so let's take a look at some of the candidates:

Andre Dawson - The Hawk was just shy of the 75% of votes needed for election, with 67% last year.  Since Jim Rice was elected last year and Dawson is better statistically than Rice, I think Dawson makes it this year.

Robert Alomar - Arguably the best second baseman in baseball during his generation, Alomar is also known for spitting in the face of an umpire.  A 12-time all-star and .300 career hitter, Alomar makes it on the first try.

Bert Blyleven - Blyleven will lose eligibility for election by the writers if not elected by 2012 and he's been gradually getting more and more votes.  A career 287 game-winner, he ranks in the top ten all-time in shutouts and strikeouts.  I think he deserves enshrinement, but I have a feeling he falls just shy this year.

Barry Larkin - Alan Trammell is also on the ballot, but Larkin's numbers are a bit better than Trammell's.  Larkin was an excellent shortstop for the Reds, earning an all-star selection for 12 of his 19 big league seasons.  I'd give him around 50% of the vote.
 
Lee Smith - Before Trevor Hoffman became the all-time saves leader, it was Lee Smith.  I remember they used to time his walk from the bullpen to the mound and boy was it slow.  He was at 44.5% last year and I think he falls short this year.  As more and more relievers get elected (see: Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage), Smith's chances get better.

Tim Raines - Raines was overshadowed by Rickey Henderson last year and while Henderson's number were better than Raines, Raines is most certainly a Hall-of-Famer.  On that note, it's hard to go from 23% of the vote to 75%, but I expect Raines' votes to surge toward that mark this year, with election next year.

Edgar Martinez - The first "true" Designated Hitter to be on the ballot with a chance at election, Martinez was a great hitter, but I think he'll face a bit of an uphill climb to election.  Relievers faced a similar struggle when the use of relief pitchers evolved to where it is today and I think Designated Hitters will struggle for a few years.  Is Martinez a Hall of Famer?  .312 career average, 300+ home runs, 1261 RBI, and seven all-star selections.  Maybe.... but not this year.

Others - My guess is that Mark McGwire will still hover around 25% of the vote, although I'd vote for him.  Jack Morris was at 44% last year and he may see an increase in votes, but won't come close to election.  The first-time eligible players are always interesting.  Mo Vaughn, of all people, got votes last year.  I wouldn't be shocked to see Kevin Appier, Eric Karros, Fred McGriff, Robin Ventura, and Andres Galarraga get a handful of votes each, deservedly so or not. 

MLB Free Agency Winners and Losers

Have you ever gotten to an airport only to find that your flight was delayed?  All there is to do is sit around and wait.  That's how I feel about Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, Johnny Damon, and the rest of MLB's unsigned free agents.  While Holliday and Bay are the class of MLB's free agent hitters this year, both appear to be content to remain teamless as we ring in the new year.  While they continue to sulk and wonder why they aren't getting offers for more money, I'm going to consider some early winners and losers of free agency.


Winner: Boston Red Sox.  The signing of John Lackey (pictured) gives Boston four guys that can be a number one starter on many teams.  Pitching wins championships and Boston is in position to have starting rotation depth be a strength next season.  The Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro signings were a nice bonus, too.


Loser: Johnny Damon.  Damon wanted to come back to the Yankees but his price tag never came down.  Note to Damon and other veterans: the era of big, bloated contracts is over.  Maybe Bay and Holliday should read that line again.

Winner: New York Yankees.  It's hard to imagine that the Yankees' biggest splash in free agency is Nick Johnson, but if he stays healthy, he's a great #2 hitter that will get on base for guys like A-Rod and Mark Teixeira.  Yes, I am really resisting talking about the two big trades they made.

Winner: Washington Nationals.  They overpaid for Pudge, but when you're a team that contends for the #1 draft pick each year, that needs to happen in order to turn things around.  Pudge provides a veteran presence for the Nats your pitchers (read: Stephen Strasburg).  The signings of Matt Capps and Jason Marquis were even bigger for Washington.  When a team gets so accustomed to losing, I think it's important to bring in some new blood to try to change the attitude.  This is precisely what Washington has done and while these guys probably won't carry the Nats to the playoffs, it's a great first step.

Loser: Houston Astros.  Three years and $15 million to Brandon Lyon?  Brandon Lyon?!  I believe that a team should never spend money like that on a middle reliever.  Even if he ends up replacing Jose Valverde as closer, he's still BRANDON LYON.

Winner: Brandon Lyon.  See above.

Players Start Moving as Free Agency Begins

In case the Turkey yesterday put you to sleep, there was big MLB news as former Red Sox shortstop Alex Gonzalez signed with the Blue Jays.  Well maybe it's not big news but until some of the bigger dominoes start to fall, this is the excitement baseball fans can look forward to this off-season.  Gonzalez is one of the first few recognizable names to move teams.  The White Sox have been busy, signing Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel to bolster their depth (I guess they want to re-live 1999), but all has been quiet on the John Lackey-Matt Holliday-Jason Bay front.  In the spirit of Black Friday, let's examine where some of baseball's free agents could wind up.

John Lackey - The Mets have some dollars to spend and Lackey has some dollars to earn.  The biggest prize in this year's free agent class goes to Queens to become starter 1A behind Johan Santana. 

Jason Bay - San Francisco has a strong young pitching staff but is extremely short on bats.  Adding Bay could put the Giants in position to challenge the Dodgers in the NL West in 2010.

Matt Holliday - They may not offer the most money, which could be a problem for his agent, Scott Boras.  Holliday is a great fit in St. Louis and provides the Cardinals with another bat in the middle of the order to help Albert Pujols.  After a disastrous first half of the season in Oakland, I think Holliday re-signs with the Cardinals.

Orlando Hudson - You're going to think I'm nuts, but Hudson signs with the Mets.  Sure, they have some waste named Luis Castillo manning second right now and he's signed through 2011 for $6 million a year, but if the Mets want to contend they need an upgrade at second and Hudson is just the guy.

Marco Scutaro - Scutaro came out of no where to hit 35 home runs this year, surpassing his previous career high of 32.  Predominantly a shortstop, Scutaro is versatile to play any other infield position or a corner outfield position, which adds to his value.  Since Toronto signed Gonzalez, they have no need for Scutaro.  Look for him to play for the Red Sox in 2010.

Adrian Beltre - Looking to upgrade at third base, the Phillies would be an excellent fit for Beltre.  Beltre is one of the best defensive third basemen in the game and can still hit, although his days of hitting 40+ home runs are over.  Imagine that infield.  Howard/Utley/Rollins/Beltre.

Chone Figgins -The White Sox could use a lead-off hitter, but don't expect the Angels to let Figgins go without a fight. My guess is that Anaheim outbids the White Sox for his services.

Johnny Damon - If they can get him for two years, Damon will re-sign with the Yankees.  Despite Scott Boras' wishes that he signs for four years, Damon has made it abundantly clear that he wants to stay in New York, which hurts any bargaining power Boras has.  Damon will be back in New York.

Vladimir Guerrero - Vlad once had the best arm in baseball, and while he can still throw, he can barely move.  Guerrero moves out of Anaheim and goes and spends time as a DH.  He would be a great fit in Texas.

Erik Bedard - Bedard is an interesting case.  He's very talented but hasn't pitched 200 innings ever in his career, although he did pitch 196 in 2006.  Boston GM Theo Epstein has shown he likes taking flyers on pitchers (see: John Smoltz, Brad Penny) and the Red Sox could use another pitcher, so look for an incentive deal for Bedard to sign in Boston.

Jose Valverde - The Astros would like to have Valverde back and only a handful of teams are in need of a closer.  If Philadelphia loses faith in in Brad Lidge, they could be a dark horse for Valverde, otherwise, expect him to stay in Houston.

How to Fix the Gold Glove Awards

The Gold Glove awards are supposed to highlight defensive brilliance at each position in each league.  Unfortunately, the selection process is flawed, since the managers and coaches in each league pick the winners and many times, reputation is the sole criteria in voting.  Torii Hunter wins the Gold Glove pretty much every year despite the fact that he's not the center fielder he once was.  This year there were several problematic Gold Glove winners, capped by Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, who is a notorious sub-par fielder.

Baseball showed that it can evolve last season by stepping into the late 1990s by instituting replay.  Now it's time to to really recognize the best fielders with Gold Gloves.  Here's how:

• Take the vote away from coaches and managers - This is easy.  These guys know a lot about the game but they don't have time to actually watch the game and pay attention to who the good fielders are.  The baseball writers vote for the rest of the awards (minus the silver sluggers) and do a decent enough job at it.  Let's give them a shot.  I would say they are less likely to go just by a player's reputation.  Defensive statistics have increased in popularity in recent years and there are several good metrics to help a voter choose the best candidate.  I highly doubt a manager is going to peruse a statistics site to check on a fielder for his Gold Glove ballot... but maybe a writer will.
• Make the voting public - Right now there are no counts to show that Derek Jeter beat Elvis Andrus by one vote or 14 votes.  Let's start to hold the voters accountable by publishing some vote totals.
• Award a Gold Glove to a LF, a CF, and a RF - Presently, there are three generic "outfield" Gold Gloves.  Absolute garbage.  You can't compare a center fielder to any other position because they cover more ground than either of the corner positions.  At the same time, a guy like Carl Crawford will never be recognized for his outstanding defense because he's not a center fielder.  If infielders are split up by position, there is no reason why outfielders can't be. 
  

MLB Update: The Curse of Big Papi, Yankees Free Agent Frenzy, and Joe Mauer's Future With The Twins

I'm a guy who likes a challenge.  Overtime, extra innings, championship game; you name it and it gets the blood flowing.  Now I don't swing freely, I take on calculated bets.  I know when I step into the ring that odds are pretty good that I leave victorious.  In fact, Mark Twain said it best:

“I thoroughly disapprove of duels. If a man should challenge me, I would take him kindly and forgivingly by the hand and lead him to a quiet place and kill him.”

A week ago, when Rob Burckhard (your normal baseball author in this time slot) suggested a friendly side-wager on our matchup in the 2009 SportsJudge Fantasy Football League, I took a look at the standings and our rosters.  He's toiled in last place for essentially the whole season, and I had Drew Brees, Wes Welker, and Chad Ochocinco leading the way for my squad.  I'll be honest, I didn't want to just beat Rob, I wanted to walk him kindly to a quiet place and put him out of his misery.

I propose a challenge to you, Mr. Colligan.  I win and you owe me a First to Third baseball column and if you win I will write a guest post on anything you would like.  Are you up to the challenge?

         - Rob Burckhard

Needless to say, here I am.  I haven't written on baseball for a few months, so I felt it would be a good opportunity to vent about a few random ideas that have been floating around in my head this summer and fall.





Yankees win, but what about that "curse"?

For the first year in a while, I lost a little interest in the MLB playoffs.  In July, it was pretty obvious the Yankees were the cream of the crop.  Barring a total collapse, the only thing I could think of to derail this team was "the curse".  Remember?  The construction worker who thought it'd be a great idea to bury the Big Papi jersey under new Yankee Stadium.   Well we all saw how well that worked.  Not only did the Yankees win a World Series in the first year of the new stadium, Ortiz batted a terrible .238 with a career high 134 strikeouts.  With that in mind, I can't help but wonder, at what point was this ever a curse?

Yankees win, but what about the purse?

Ah, the wonderful cost of winning a championship.  It happens every year, in every sport.  Bring home a title, and all of a sudden those second and third-tier role players heading into free agency start seeing dollar signs.  For the Yankees, the focus is on vintage free agents Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Andy Pettitte.  The latest I've heard is all three are set to "test the market".  How does that make sense?  How do you leave the Yankees to test a market set by the Yankees?  I guess you call the Red Sox?  Seems pretty silly to me.  Not too surprising that agent Scott Boras is in the middle of the pile here, as well as with Matt Holliday.

Joe Mauer and the future of the Twins

Speaking of agents, Buster Olney had a great piece at ESPN Insider on upcoming contract extension negotiations between the Minnesota Twins and agent Ron Shapiro, acting on behalf of client Joe Mauer.

The fact that Shapiro is representing Mauer should not be dismissed as a factor in these negotiations, because while the catcher -- whose talents are unique, when cast against history -- is ultimately going to get a whole lot of money no matter where he winds up, Shapiro's history of negotiating suggests that money will not be the only issue.

Olney went on to discuss Shapiro's negotiations on behalf of Kirby Puckett and Cal Ripken, Jr., both of which resulted in big money for the superstars.  Yet more importantly, he stressed that Shapiro did it the right way.  The Twins have always had a reputation for not just bringing in talent, but bringing in great guys.  It's no surprise that a class act like Mauer has an agent like Shapiro representing him in contract talks.  Even if it costs the Twins $25M a year to hang onto the MVP catcher, there won't be yelling, screaming, and threats to the media.  It'll get done the right way.


Other News and Notes:


- Fanhouse posted a list of players eligible for arbitration on their 2010 salary.

- AmateurGM.com identified all the important dates on the path to Opening Day 2010 (April 4).

- No surprise here, Jim Thome wants to finish his career in Chicago.

- Red Sox and Marlins fans, this Thanksgiving be sure to give thanks to the 2005 trade the defined your franchises.

- Hard to believe Ken Griffey, Jr. can get resigned this quickly, while Barry Bonds is unemployed.

- Ken Rosenthal at FOX reports the Pirates won't hesitate to trade catcher Ryan Doumit, as if this is a surprise.  Pirates willing to trade players away? You don't say.

- I'll leave you a photo of Derek Jeter playing Derek Jeter in the upcoming movie "The Other Guys".  I'm pretty sure Joe Torre would not have allowed that haircut.

The World Series Parade Experience

I took off from work on Friday to attend the Yankees World Series parade.  Yes, I know that makes some of you want to vomit, but it was an interesting experience.  For the rest of this post, I encourage you to replace the word "Yankees" with your favorite team... even if it's the Nationals.

I went to the NY Giants parade after they won Super Bowl XLII, but this was so much more crowded.  I left my parents' house in Westchester County at about 7:00 a.m., thinking there wouldn't be a problem getting to the parade in time for its 11:00 a.m. start.  I took Metro North and the subway to get down to city hall, which wasn't too bad, in terms of crowds.  It was rush hour and aside from people wearing Yankee jerseys, it couldn't have been much worse than usual.  I walked out of the subway station at about 9:00 a.m., two hours before the parade start time.  It was a madhouse.  Walking along Broadway (where the parade was to come through) wasn't even possible, so I went on Church Street and figured I would walk down a side street.  The first several streets was blocked off by the NYPD, as crowds had already reached capacity down those streets.

First to Third: Three Days Rest

Despite taking a 3-1 series lead into last night's game five of the World Series, the Yankees sent A.J. Burnett to the mound to face the Phillies on three days rest rather than sending Chad Gaudin out to pitch.  Burnett, who hadn't thrown on three days rest all season, didn't make it out of the third inning and surrendered six earned runs and issues four walks.  Not what the Yankees were looking for in their number two starter.

After the game, the Yankees were quick to tell the media that it wasn't the three days rest that was Burnett's problem, but it couldn't have helped.  Andy Pettitte, the Yankees 38 year old third starter is likely to take the ball on short rest in game six of the World Series, Wednesday in the Bronx. 

As the season creeps into November, each of the three Yankee postseason starters has thrown over 200 innings and their arms aren't getting any fresher.  With such a commanding series lead, why didn't the Yankees pitch Gaudin?  He certainly couldn't have fared worse than Burnett and he would have enabled the Yankees to have a fresh set of starting pitchers for the remaining two games.  The Yankees seem content to finish the postseason with three starters and are looking to become the first team since the 1991 Minnesota Twins to win the World Series with just three postseason starters.  

First to Third: Second Guessing Game Two

One of the best parts about being a sports fan is the ability to second guess your team's manager or coach - and sometimes, even the players.  In game two of the World Series, there were several questionable decisions that are worthy of debate.

Derek Jeter tries to bunt in the 7th: Over the past 15 seasons, the amount of times Derek Jeter has been criticized for doing something that wasn't a "smart baseball play" can probably be counted on one hand.  However, his decision to try to bunt with no outs and two runners on base as not a good one.  It got even worse when Jeter didn't give up on his attempt with two strikes.  The Yankees had a chance to break the game wide open, but didn't.  It didn't cost them the game, but what was Jeter thinking?

Charlie Manuel lets Pedro Martinez start the 7th: Shades of Grady Little in 2003 as Manuel let Pedro convince him that he wasn't tired after the 6th inning.  Now 38, Martinez promptly surrendered two base hits to the Yankees' seventh and eighth hitters before being replaced by Chan Ho Park.  Park allowed a base hit that put the Yankees up 3-1.  With a fully rested 'pen... why send Pedro back out there?

Charlie Manuel doesn't start the runners in the 8th: I agree with Manuel here.  Chase Utley grounded into five double plays all year and since he bats lefty, if Utley sung and missed the the runner at third had a good chance of getting thrown out since Jorge Posada would have a clear throw to third. 

Joe Girardi throws Mariano Rivera for two innings: With a day off today, there was no reason why Rivera couldn't go two innings.  It's the World Series... not May.  So what if he threw 40 pitches... the Joba Rules don't apply to Mariano.

Joe Girardi starts Jerry Hairston over Nick Swisher:  Girardi will tell you this paid off since Hairston had a base hit in the 7th which eventually resulted in a run scored.  Personally, I would have left the singles hitter on the bench and thrown Eric Hinske out in right field. 
 

First to Third: World Series Preview

The Battle of the I-95 corridor begins tomorrow night in New York as the Philadelphia Phillies take on the New York Yankees in the 2009 World Series.  I think the teams match up pretty evenly, so it should be an exciting series.  Here's a preview:

Infield: NLCS MVP Ryan Howard has been a beast this postseason, but in the Philadelphia infield, he's really the only one who has produced.  Jimmy Rollins is hitting .244 in the postseason and Chase Utley hit .211 in the NLCS.  Pedro Feliz is hitting around .160 for the postseason.  On the other hand, Alex Rodriguez decided to learn how to hit in the postseason and is leading the Yankees with a .424 postseason batting average.  Across the diamond, Mark Teixeira struggled through the first two rounds of the playoffs but is five for his last 14 (.357).  Derek Jeter is hitting .297 in the postseason, while Robinson Cano has yet to find a groove in October.  Advantage: Yankees

First to Third: How Much Does a Manager Matter?

With a two run lead in the seventh inning of game five of the ALCS, the Yankees sent A.J. Burnett back out to pitch the bottom of the seventh.  Burnett promptly put two runners on base, at which point he was relieved and the bullpen couldn't hold the lead.  Just an inning before, John Lackey was pulled, although he really didn't want to leave, and Darren Oliver surrendered three runs without recording an out as the Yankees pulled ahead.

At this point, many fans believed they could manage better than either Joe Girardi or Mike Scioscia.  I think in the postseason it is very easy to over-manage a game.  Quick hooks and questionable substitutions have been a staple of playoff games for a number of years, but how much do these decisions impact a game or series?  In his first postseason as a manager, Girardi has made questionable bullpen moves and has chosen to start the soft-hitting Jose Molina in games Burnett pitches over playoff veteran Jorge Posada.  Scioscia has had backup Jeff Mathis catch Lackey over Mike Napoli.  Joe Torre continued his history of questionable bullpen moves before the Dodgers were eliminated.  Charlie Manuel has stubbornly stuck with the erratic Brad Lidge and has been rewarded.  Aside from the umpires this postseason, the managers have been second-guessed the most, which raises the question: how much does a manager matter?

There Goes the Neighborhood

With all this discussion about expanding the use of instant replay, sometimes the human side of baseball is forgotten. There are certain plays in baseball where it's ok to not get a call right. The strike zone, while actually defined in the rule book, is largely subjective based on the home plate umpire. Tim Tschida's strike zone is different than CB Bucknor's. Another example is the "neighborhood play." The neighborhood play is a reference to a middle infielder being in the neighborhood of second base when turning a double play. In 99% of double play balls, the second base umpire will call a runner out at second as long as the middle infielder comes close to the base when turning a double play.

If baseball selects its best umpires to work the playoffs, it is reasonable to assume that now isn't the time to change accepted conventions. However, in game two of the ALCS, Angels shortstop Erick Aybar was turning a double play where he never touched second base - but came extremely close and was in fact straddling the base - and the Yankee runner was called safe.

Baseball fans can argue for furthering the use of replay all they want but it's important to maintain the human element. In Joe Torre's most recent book he reminds people to always remember that the game has a pulse. Let's keep it that way.

First to Third: All These Missed Calls!

Joe Mauer hit a double in the top of the 11th in game two of the ALDS to give the Twins a runner on second with no one out. Well... maybe not. Despite having an umpire stationed down the left field line just for these sort of calls, Mauer's double, which was fair by a foot or two, was ruled foul. Mauer singled and the Twins would go on to leave bases loaded before the Yankees were able to win the game.

It's been a rough October for the umpires so far, as several calls have been missed - and not just by those pesky outfield umpires.

Some have called for the expansion of instant replay, but anyone who has seen The Matrix knows that machines can take over any minute. Those who watche the American League will tell you baseball games are long enough. Where's the compromise? How about taking a page out of the NFL's book and giving the managers a challenge flag and a set amount of challenges per game. I'm a purist, so I don't agree with this at all, but let's have some fun.

I tell you what, baseball loves this idea of a series. The Reds will play a three game series against the Pirates in May (and no one will show up!). Why not give managers three "challenges" per series (or four for a four game set). Dusty Baker can use all three in one game or none at all (they won't carry over... this isn't rollover minutes, people). Baker can challenge boundary calls just like the umpires can now. The umps can also review a play on their own - managers can't provoke this without using a "challenge." He can't challenge balls and strikes, but maybe he can challenge a close play at first base. How would that change the game? Would we really be worse off then? Would games be officiated more accurately? Would the pace of play slow to a halt?

Photo Credit: BizofBaseball.com

First to Third: Is Stealing Signs Cheating?

There's a video floating around on the internet which suggests that Twins catcher - and probable AL MVP - Joe Mauer was stealing signs in an attempt to help Jason Kubel identify what Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander was going to throw. [Deadspin has the video here] Mauer would touch the ear flap on his helmet for a breaking ball and he would touch his face for a fastball. The end result of Kubel's at bat is a sacrifice fly and an RBI.

Cheating and baseball have gone hand in hand for as long as the game has existed. Stealing signs isn't a new phenomenon, nor is it likely to go away anytime soon. Pitchers have tried to doctor the baseball for years and well... there's that steroid thing. Mauer's blatant sign-stealing will likely go unpunished, but is that right? I say yes. MLB will never be able to catch everyone that steals signs and in addition, I don't know if there's a rule prohibiting it.

Stealing signs is a part of baseball. Does that make it right? No, but baseball is unique in the sense that it has its own internal discipline. If the opposing team suspects sign stealing, the culprit is likely to get plunked in his next at bat. While Mauer didn't get hit by a pitch in retaliation, the possibility is there. When it comes to sign stealing, it's best to let the players deal with it in their own way.

First to Third: Reviewing My NL Predictions

After round one of the review of my pre-season picks, I'm back for more evidence that I'm not a genius. This time, we'll dissect my NL pre-season picks.

NL Postseason Awards: I guessed Dan Haren would win the NL Cy Young award this year and he's put up strong numbers but will likely get votes, but will come up short. Manny Ramirez was my NL MVP and his steroid suspension and poor numbers this year won't even put him in the conversation.

NL Playoffs: I had the Phillies winning the division, which will happen and the Mets taking the Wild Card. Since the Mets... well... fell apart (literally), they aren't in the conversation. I picked the Cubs to win the Central and the Cardinals to finish fourth. I can't understand how the Cubs managed to do this bad, but my oversight of the Cardinals was embarrassing. St. Louis pitching coach, Dave Duncan is some sort of genius. Out West, I crowned the Dodgers, which was easy, but I had the Rockies, the likely wild card team this year, in fourth. The Cubs were my pick to win the pennant. Ouch.

What I really did in spring training was sit down and wonder what's not going to happen... yes, that's it. I wasn't the only one, though, as ESPN's Buster Olney liked the Cubs in the Central and Tim Kurkjian sent them to the World Series, like I did. Peter Gammons put the Mets in the World Series and gave the Central to the Cubs. ESPN, if you're reading this, I'm available! ESPN Expert Picks.

First to Third: Reviewing My AL Predictions

I think predictions are fun. In the beginning of the season, every team has hopes at capturing the championship and everyone thinks they can pretty much guess how the season will unfold. Common folk, like me, post these predictions as a way of saying "look over here, I know what I'm talking about, too!" and experts make predictions to say exactly the same thing as a way to prove their knowledge. Now that we're at the end of the season, I'm going to review and evaluate my predictions as a way to show you how little I (and everyone else) really knows. We'll save the National League until next time.

AL Postseason Awards:
I predicted Rays pitcher James Shields to win the Cy Young and Grady Sizemore to win the MVP. Suffice it to say neither of those things are going to happen and those guys aren't even in the conversation.

AL Playoffs: I had the Yankees winning the AL East and the Red Sox as the wild card. So far, so good. In the Central, I had the Twins winning the division, which isn't a stretch since they're close, but I had the Tigers in the basement. Oops. Out West, I predicted the A's to dethrone the Angels, who I picked to finish second. Oakland didn't come close and began the dismantling process after probably three games this year. I had the Yankees winning the American League and the World Series, so be sure to keep me honest with that one.

Well, that was pretty terrible, besides the AL East. As for some "expert picks" that were a bit off: ESPN's Peter Gammons and Tim Kurkjian also picked Sizemore for the MVP. Kurkjian also picked the Indians to win the Central. Buster Olney had the Rays winning the AL East and the World Series. Glad I'm not the only genius out there! ESPN Expert Picks.

First to Third: Astros Fire Cecil Cooper

It was September 21st. There were 13 games left in the season and the Houston Astros were 70-79 on the season, 14.5 games out of the wild card, destined to spend October on the golf course. Nevertheless, the Astros believed it was time for a change and relieved Cecil Cooper of his duties as manager. With 13 games left.

The question, now, is not whether Cooper deserved to be fired. He wasn't likely to return in 2010, anyway. The question is: was it really necessary to fire Cooper with 13 games left? 13 games. Is interim manager Dave Clark going to make a difference in these 13 games? If he goes 13-0 or 0-13 does that impact his candidacy for the full-time job? Does it really send some sort of powerful message to the players if the manager is canned this late in the season?

My answer to all of those questions is no. Firing Cooper with so few games remaining does absolutely nothing and proves no point. There is no reason why the Astros couldn't let Cooper finish the season and then fire him the next day. It is pointless to shake up the coaching staff this late in the season. Unfortunately for the Astros, there are plenty of additional questions that need to be answered as the team begins preparations for 2010.