Ides of March: The Mid-Major Outlook

Welcome to my new column, where I cover college basketball leading up to Selection Sunday, which is just two short months from now. I’ll do my best to break down who should be in, who should be out, and who may feel, well, stabbed in the back on March 15 (that’s Selection Sunday).

Mid-majors had six at-large bids in last year’s tournament (A-10: St. Joe’s, Xavier, MWC: BYU, Sun Belt: South Alabama, and WCC: Gonzaga and St. Mary’s). Only one “surprise” conference tournament winner from these conferences last year (San Diego in the WCC) meant that heading into the 2008 conference tournaments there were five definitive at-large bids allocated to mid-major teams.

There’s a very good chance that there will be less this year. With strong years expected from power conference teams, power conferences could come out with anywhere up to 31 of the 34 at-large bids for the tournament. That would leave as little as three at-large bids for mid-majors. Let’s take a look at mid-major conference resumes up to this point:

A-10: Dayton, despite coming off a bad opening loss in conference play, is likely to be the lone at-large bid from this conference, coming in behind projected conference champion Xavier. Dayton is aided by a win at Marquette and is 2-0 against the RPI top 25. URI would be next in line for a bid, but their resume isn’t quite strong enough. While they lost by 3 against Duke, their best win is at Penn St. The Rams face Xavier tomorrow for their only matchup of the season but have little chance of improving their tournament prospects outside of Cuttino Mobley somehow finding eligibility.

CAA: This one bid conference gave us a Final Four team just three short years ago, but has no wins against quality non-conference opponents among its top teams (George Mason, VCU, and Northeastern). In fact, the whole conference is 0-fer against the RPI top 50.

Conference USA: This is, once again, a one-bid conference. The conference’s 3 combined wins against the RPI top 50 come from Houston and and UTEP, not from Memphis (0-3). Still, Memphis should be your champion and lone representative.

Horizon: Chances are that if Butler wins the conference tournament, this is a one-bid conference. However, don’t be surprised to see Cleveland St. make a run at an at-large bid. They had a very tough schedule to start the season, playing Washington, Kansas St., and West Virginia before finally getting a quality win at Syracuse. It may not be enough, but a strong conference performance (they’re 4-2 right now, with a 2 point loss against Butler) could be capped off with a statement win at Butler on February 28; a win that would be fresh in the committee’s mind come Selection Sunday. For now though, they have two big games coming up, both away at Wisconsin-Green Bay and Wisconsin-Milwaukee, both of whom could also make a run at an at-large bid.

Mountain West Conference: This conference should easily get at least one at-large bid. I was ready to anoint Utah and BYU as conference front-runners, but Utah just came off a loss (albeit in a tough road game) at San Diego State. Right now I would put BYU and San Diego St. out in front, but look for one of Utah or UNLV (who still hold a one point win at Louisville that they can show off to the committee in March) to sneak in the back door if there are few or no upsets in conference championship games across the country.

Missouri Valley Conference: This conference has yet to record a win against an RPI top 25 team and no one has a win over an RPI top 50 team outside of conference play. The RPI of the top teams says that, right now, this should be a multi-bid conference. But those same RPIs have been dropping like rocks as conference play has gotten underway. This is one conference where parity among the top four or five teams will hurt its chances of an at-large bid, thanks to mostly poor non-conference schedules. With strong power conferences this year, Drake at Bradley on February 28 could give us an idea of which team will represent the conference come March.

WAC: I’d be very interested in watching a Utah St. v. Boise St. de facto tournament play-in game in the WAC Conference Championship game. Look for a hook and ladder on a court-length pass from the Broncos to send the game to overtime. Unfortunately for Bronco fans, in overtime Boise St. will probably go for two instead of a tie. They’ll be down by 3. I think Utah St. represents the conference’s lone bid come mid-March.

West Coast Conference: Gonzaga and St. Mary’s look like sure things. Flip a coin on which becomes conference champion (my coin says St. Mary’s). No one else seems interested in making a run at the bubble.


Based on above, there’s the potential for 3-5 at large bids from these conferences (1 from the A-10, 0 to 1 from Horizon, 1 or 2 from the MWC, and 1 from the WCC), depending on their resumes compared to middle-of-the-pack power conference teams.

Then there are, of course, the power conferences. The mid-major bid predictions can’t be made in a vacuum. The Big East has 8 ranked teams, plus West Virginia lingering in the “Others Receiving Votes” category. I’ll get to the Big East in a later column, but keep in mind that Providence (who right now would represent the tenth team in) has a favorable schedule that could get them to 9 or 10 (or more) conference wins. The ACC and Big Ten are both strong this year too. So how does the strength of these power conferences affect the likelihood of teams in those power conferences of getting at-large bids (and inversely the likelihood of mid-major at-large bids)? If a lot Big East teams make it to 12-15 wins, that decreases the likelihood of other Big East teams getting to 9 wins (.500 in the league, which is pretty respectable), therefore decreasing the amount of at-large Big East bids, which opens up a spot for a mid-major team. How will this situation turn out? Thus far, it’s too early to tell from major conference play. That's fine, but will the tough schedules in the Big East help or hurt the conference in maximizing the number of Big East teams that get into the tournament? I like to think of this fun analogy as ranked Big East teams keep going up against each other:

The Big East, it’s pretty clear, is the deepest conference. It’s also a very big conference, like, let's say, the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man as he rises above New York City. Now let’s say Notre Dame beats Georgetown who beats Syracuse who beats Notre Dame, and the Big East season continues with this sort of circular parity. Now imagine the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man getting hungry, taking a break from destroying things, and taking a bite out of his own arm (Ridiculous? I know, just like the Big East. Stick with me here). That's the equivalent of ranked Big East teams beating each other into parity. But does the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man become weaker by taking a chunk out of his own arm? Maybe, but you also have to keep in mind that he’s made out of marshmallow…and he’s eating more marshmallow. So does that mean he’s making himself stronger? Not really, but he’s also not really losing anything either. That puts us back at square one, which is where most people think that the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man will get anywhere from 8-10 teams into the NCAA tournament.

It will end up being the amount of parity in the Big East, and other major conferences, that directly affects the at-large bids of the mid-majors. For the mid-majors, the less parity there is in power conferences, the better.

This Week's Notable Performers

Jodie Meeks (Kentucky) – Meeks, who has topped 30 points five times this season, asserted himself in an amazing performance last night at Tennessee by breaking school records in three pointers made (10) and points in a game (54). Kentucky scored 90 points and only one other player scored more than 7 of them.
Terrence Williams (Louisville) – The Cardinals’ third leading scorer had 24 points, 16 rebounds, and 8 assists in a big overtime win against Notre Dame Monday night. His teammate Earl Clark also had an incredible drive and dunk on Luke Harangody.
Jerome Jordan (Tulsa) – The seven foot Jamaican, who has 5 double-doubles in his last 6 games, had 20 points, 13 rebounds and 4 blocks in a heartbreaking one point loss to Memphis last night. His performance included a solid 6 of 7 from the free throw line, where he’s shooting 75% on the season.
Jeremy Lin (Harvard) – Lin had 27 points and 8 assists in a 12 point win over Boston College, who was fresh off their upset of North Carolina.

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