Showing posts with label Ides of March. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ides of March. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Ides of March: The ACC/Big East Challenge

People up and down the east coast, and across the country, have been bickering over which conference is better: the ACC or the Big East. Generally, the people involved in these discussions come from an ACC or Big East school or city, and generally side with their conference. The entire world was predicting that the Big East was going to be able to get 10 teams into the tournament. I’m not ruling out the possibility (the stars can still align), but what everyone seemed to forget is that all of these teams had to play each other over the course of conference play. Back in January I compared the Big East to the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man. The Big East was bound to beat itself up, but what mattered is how pollsters and bracketologists perceived the inevitable parity. Well, the pollsters apparently didn’t see the middle tier teams of the Big East as rank-worthy. Take a look at how the USA Today/ESPN rankings of Big East teams played out from the beginning of conference play until now:


They’ll have to take solace in five top 15 teams and the top two teams in the country. The first time a conference has had the top two teams in the country since…uh January 19 when Wake Forest and Duke held the top spots.

Now let’s take a peek at how the ACC and Big East did against each other this season. But there needs to be other factors taken into account, like who was supposed to win. How are we supposed to know who was supposed to win, isn’t that a little subjective? Not when your turn to the professionals in Vegas who put their money on the line for figuring out who’s supposed to win. So below you’ll find the sixteen games between the ACC and Big East this season, along with who was supposed to win and who won. Meet you at the bottom.


November 18
St. John’s at Boston College
Line: BC -8.5
Final: BC 82-70

November 19
South Florida at Virginia
Line: Virginia -7
Final: Virginia 77-75

November 23
Connecticut v. Miami (FL) (neutral site)
Line: UConn -4
Final: UConn 76-63

November 23
Seton Hall v. Virginia Tech (neutral site)
Line: Virginia Tech -5
Final: Seton Hall 77-73

November 26
Notre Dame v. North Carolina (neutral site)
Line: North Carolina -10.5
Result: North Carolina 102-87

November 28
Virginia at Syracuse
Line: Syracuse -16
Final: Syracuse 73-70

November 28
Cincinnati v. Florida St. (neutral site)
Line: Cincy -2.5
Result: Florida St. 58-47

November 30
Georgetown v. Maryland (neutral site)
Line: Georgetown -5.5
Final: Georgetown 75-48

December 20
Providence at Boston College
Line: Boston College -4.5
Final: BC 81-76

December 21
St. John’s v. Virginia Tech (neutral site)
Line: St. John’s -1
Final: Virginia Tech 81-67

December 21
Pittsburgh at Florida St.
Line: Pitt -7.5
Final: Pitt, 56-48

December 22
Marquette at NC State
Line: Marquette -2
Final: Marquette 68-65

December 27
Miami at St. John’s
Line: Miami -3
Final: Miami 70-56

December 28
Rutgers at North Carolina
Line: UNC -33
Final: UNC 97-75

January 17
Georgetown at Duke
Line: Duke -9
Final: Duke 76-67

February 19
St. John’s at Duke
Line: Duke -14
Final: Duke 76-69


Oddsmakers: ACC should go 9-7
Actual: ACC 10-6
RPI Wins (in RPI, a home win is 0.6 wins, a road win is 1.4 and a neutral win is 1.0): ACC 8.0-6.4


Just a few things of note from above:
--8 of 10 non-neutral site games were played at the ACC team.
--Both conferences were 3-3 at neutral sites.
--St. John’s went 0-4 against the ACC.
--The only game between the top 6 teams in each conference was Pitt‘s win at Florida State.
--Duke and North Carolina, the top two teams in the ACC, played in and won 4 games against the bottom half of the Big East while the top two teams in the country, UConn and Pitt combined for 2 wins, one against a ranked ACC team.


If there actual was a ACC/Big East challenge, St. John’s obviously would not be partaking in 4 of the games. The fact of the matter is that the top teams in each conference ended up playing the bottom end teams in the opposing conference. So what does this tell us? Well, those head to head games really doesn’t tell us all that much except that the ACC outperformed the early oddsmakers by a game. ACC teams were favored more often because, as previously mentioned, a top ACC team was playing a bottom Big East team. Sorry that this doesn't tell us much, but it was fun to look at it wasn’t it?

Where do I stand? I admit that the middle tier of ACC teams are better than I thought they would be this season. That said, the top eight teams in the Big East are better than any other top eight in any conference, maybe ever. I can’t fathom the likes of Georgetown and Notre Dame being 2 or 4 games under .500 in the ACC. Sorry ACC fans, it just would not happen. The ACC is first in Conference RPI and the ACC has 11 teams in the RPI top 100. The Big East? They have 11 teams in the top 80.

The Big East proponents have their arguments: the depth of the conference is unheard of. Would anyone in the ACC ever play five straight ranked teams in a row in conference play (something Notre Dame did in January)?

ACC supporters have their arguments too: well what about those awful teams that make up teams 13-16 in the Big East? Big East fans can’t just jettison the bottom fourth of their league. Yes it’s pretty clear that DePaul, for example, isn’t very good this year but after their game tonight against Villanova, nine of their last eleven games (all in conference) will have been against a team in the top 12 in the national rankings. Nine of their last eleven games! I’d like to see any team navigate that kind of schedule. Boston College couldn’t even navigate a win over Harvard (okay so teams from both conferences have some bad losses, but still).

What’s the best way to solve all this? I think the best way is to see the best teams head to head when it matters. March (or early April). Right now most of this argument is pretty subjective. The tournament will take care of that by presumably pitting these two conferences' tournament caliber teams against each other throughout March. Last week I suggested that one of the best ways to evaluate national player of the year would be for Notre Dame to storm back and pick up an 8 or 9 seed in Oklahoma’s bracket (they’re going to do it. They have three home games left, win all three, finish 9-9 in conference, win a game or two in the Big East tournament and I think that could sneak them in as a 9 seed). Let’s see them go head to head in the tournament. Show me DeJuan Blair against Tyler Hansbrough, I know who I’d take in 2009.

Posted by Brian Doyle at 9:00 AM 2 comments
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Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Ides of March: National Player of the Year?

The contest for national player of the year was pretty much a two horse race until last Saturday afternoon, when the talking heads of the world starting flipping their lids over some guy named Hasheem Thabeet. I saw Dick Vitale ramble for a minute or two, speaking only in nicknames about Thabeet, losing everyone, and then turning to the Wisconsin crowd that had formed prior to the Wisconsin – Ohio State game he was to call later that night and saying “how bout this crowd!” (They went nuts). Anyone who’s seen Billy Madison knows that Vitale ripped one straight from Billy's playbook. During the academic decathlon that would decide his fate, Billy incoherently tried to explain the Industrial Revolution through the children’s book “The Puppy Who Lost His Way” before yelling “Knibb High Football Rules!” and winning back the crowd. The principal’s response was basically how I felt about Vitale and everyone else’s newfound Thabeet obsession.

Why was everyone so caught up on Hasheem Thabeet? We’ve been hearing about him all year about how he blocks and alters shot inside. He’s improving offensively, sure, but why pretend to insert his name into the discussion for national player of the year now? Well Saturday afternoon, Thabeet had 25 points, 20 rebounds, and 9 blocks against Seton Hall, who also happens to be my alma mater. Why that’s important is because well, I actually watched the game, and I happen to know a little bit about Seton Hall. I’m not sure if anyone else actually watched it, it was at noon (I personally had to set my alarm for 11:30 am to make sure I could catch it) and Georgetown v. Syracuse was on the World Wide Leader at the same time. Let’s talk briefly about this game. First of all, Seton Hall’s tallest player is 6’9”. His name is John Garcia, that's him above, fouling someone from NAIA has-been Cal Baptist earlier this season. John is an underrated part of the Seton Hall team, they can't win without him (mainly because their tallest player on the court would be 6'6" without him), but John has two incredibly bad knees and can barely jump, never mind dunk.

On Monday night, in a pre-game interview, when asked about Thabeet, Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon complimented the Tanzanian on his shot blocking ability, but also mentioned two things that we spot on. Thabeet is a help-defense shot blocker, which means someone is generally always open when he goes to block a shot (something I was yelling at my TV during that Seton Hall game). Secondly, Dixon commented that shots that get blocked are generally bad shots. Not bad in the sense that they’re getting blocked, but bad in the sense of bad shot selection, as in most probably won’t go in anyway. Jamie Dixon knows what’s up.

Back to the Seton Hall game that suddenly put Thabeet in the “running” for national player of the year. Against what is essentially a four guard offense with a heavy set center who would be about the fourth tallest person on the court for Connecticut, the Huskies kept throwing up alley oops and Thabeet kept dunking the ball until he reached those 25 points (by the way, half of all of Thabeets field goals made this season are dunks). Getting 20 rebounds for him in that game is like going to your local middle school and outrebounding a bunch of highly skilled sixth graders playing on an eight-foot hoop. As for the 9 blocked shots, there are few teams in America who have poorer shot selection than Seton Hall (it's part of their 'every time we have the ball let's pretend it's a fast break!' offense). It got to the point where everyone was driving the lane and hoping Thabeet would whiff in a block attempt. Better yet, Thabeet is supposed to be a terror on defense. Now back to the aforementioned John Garcia. He averages 8 points and 7 rebounds a game. Against Thabeet? 22 points, 13 rebounds, and 6 blocks! It’s a career day against the best defender ever! John Garcia for player of the year! By the way, if the Big East’s second leading scorer, Jeremy Hazell, doesn’t have a bad day with missing wide open shots and everything, Seton Hall wins. I’m not kidding, go back and watch the game.

This article is a few days late at getting its point across. This was meant to be a warning against jumping on the Thabeet bandwagon like the media tried to do over the weekend. DeJuan Blair beat me to the point on Monday night with his one handed-reverse suplex of Thabeet. Oh, and he outplayed him. Like, by a lot. 22 points and 23 rebounds to 5 points and 4 rebounds a lot. Oh, and Thabeet only blocked 2 shots, because Jamie Dixon figured out how to tell his guys to find the open guy once Thabeet leaves his man, and of course how to not take bad shots. There are a few other instances of Thabeet being outplayed this season (Greg Monroe of Georgetown comes to mind), but the fact of the matter is, his numbers every game just aren’t good enough, look them up. I don’t mean to pick on one player with Thabeet, but he can’t really be considered a national player of the year candidate. The fact of the matter is, what Thabeet did on Saturday, Blake Griffin and Luke Harangody do consistently. I don't mean to discount the likes of Jerel McNeal, Gimp Curry, Jeff Teague or even DeJuan Blair, but if it's okay with everyone else I'd like to move on to the two horse race now.

It’s down to Luke Harangody and Blake Griffin. It was all Griffin until Notre Dame’s sudden change of heart (where they actually start showing up and playing) in their 33 point win over Louisville last Thursday. Harangody had 32 and 17 after his abysmal performance against UCLA. Just when Harangody, who can score from almost anywhere on the court, was in contention to make this contest interesting, Blake Griffin pulled one out of that annoying Michael Jordan/Mia Hamm “anything you can do I can do better” commercial (can someone explain to me why when MJ is playing goalie he's trying to block a shot from 30 yards away from goal and about 2 feet away from Mia?) and scored 40 points and took down 23 rebounds against Texas Tech on Saturday. Woah. Both dominating performances. Let’s take a look at this table:


20+ points and 15+ rebounds in a game is what I consider a dominating performance. Griffin has done it 12 times, Harangody 9. What’s even more amazing is that there are two players with a combined twenty-one 20 point, 15 rebound games this season. Griffin has more, but now lets only include "good" and power conference teams (yes, I am including Davidson and UAB despite not being in power conferences and DePaul, despite being…well, DePaul):


Look at that, only a one game difference. Now what’s the best way to sort this all out? I say the best way is for Notre Dame to make a run, finish something like 10-8 in the Big East, and get an 8 or 9 seed in Oklahoma’s bracket in the NCAA Tournament. Then we can see them square off head to head and let that, instead of a whole resume over the course of this season (which, in a vacuum, are very similar resumes), do the deciding. Yeah, that would be nice, but for now take a look at this. I call it reality:


I think that just about says it all. Griffin is the best player in the country on the best team in the country (come next Monday), while Notre Dame languishes in the bottom half of the Big East. Hmm, Notre Dame 5-7, 14-10 and Seton Hall 5-7, 14-10. Maybe I really should look into this John Garcia for player of the year thing.




Posted by Brian Doyle at 9:00 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Ides of March: Into the Sarlacc

I have to admit, I never thought I would ever use a Star Wars reference in my entire life. I know very little about the trilogy (or however many there are now). I had to use Google for the title of this article. I had no idea what the name of that pit that people get thrown into (or some clumsy ones fall into) in the desert. You know, the flower-like pit thing with the teeth, the one that digests its prey over the course of a thousand years. So I searched ‘star wars pit digest 1000 years.’ It’s called a sarlacc. And there’s entirely too much information about it on the internet. In fact, (since I really know so little about Star Wars, but I like to keep the column themed) every reference in this article will come straight from a Google search (look for my search term citations in parentheses).

The part of the movie I do remember though is when Jabba the Hut's henchmen seem in control of everything, ready to make Luke & Co. walk the plank to their long and painful floral death, when all of a sudden the tables are turned when Luke pulls off some crazy Jedi/acrobat stuff and the henchmen end up as sarlacc grub. So which teams have been tossed into the sarlacc, destined to deal with the agony that is their season as they slowly dissolve in the stomach of a fake monster invented by George Lucas thirty years ago? Which once “good” teams are falling into the depths of mediocrity and out of the tournament? Which once proud and touted teams, here on February 11th, have had their tables turned on them and now have no or little hope of making the tournament? Let’s have a look!


Notre Dame
Ah yes, the Fighting Irish. As conference play began they were ranked tenth in the country. Now they aren’t even tenth in their conference. Things really could not be going any worse for Mike Brey’s team, not even if there was another Kyle McAlarney drug suspension. They’ve lost seven in a row, usually with Luke Harangody chiming in with roughly 25 points and 15 rebounds and no one else on the team doing anything offensively (or defensively). So, the root of the problem is that none of Harangody’s supporting cast has done anything to help the team. How bad is it? Well the irony was delicious when Harangody only scored 5 points against UCLA in a 26 point loss last Saturday. And guess what? His teammates finally decided to show up! Tory Jackson had 17 points and Kyle McAlarney had 16. Couldn’t they all coordinate showing up at the same time so they could maybe win a game? That’s about as ironic as um, whatever these people are talking about here (‘star wars irony’). Notre Dame has a near impossible task to even try making it back to .500 in the Big East. Maybe they can work on a new home winning streak if they get a chance to host a game in the NIT.

Georgetown
Georgetown was ranked eighth in the country coming into Big East play (and if you guessed that they aren’t even eighth in their conference, you’re right!). The Hoyas have lost 6 of their last 7 games, with their lone win coming against the imposing team that is The State University of New Jersey (that’s Rutgers, they aren’t really that good). Why has this team fallen so far so fast? I personally thought Jeremiah Rivers' transfer to Indiana would make them a better team, I guess I stand partially corrected (there's no proof that they wouldn't be 0-11 in the Big East if he was still there). Georgetown has proven itself to be a first half team. In their last four losses, against Seton Hall, Marquette, and twice against Cincinnati, the Hoyas have led or been tied at the half. But guess what? They still aren’t totally kaput. They sit at 4-7 in the conference (that’s 11th) and still hold onto a solid RPI (38). They would need to get back to .500 in Big East play. Can they? They will face four more ranked teams this season, so I wouldn’t count on it.

St. Mary’s
A week and a half ago St. Mary’s was ranked in the top 20. Then Patty Mills broke his hand. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 since then, including a bad loss at Santa Clara on Saturday. Is it a one man team? Yes and no. They have quality players but Mills is not only a scorer, but does a fantastic job of running the offense. The Gaels are out of the tournament if it starts today, but Mills is due back just before the conference tournament, meaning that they may very well win the tournament and get an automatic bid. They were absolutely taking it to Gonzaga in Spokane before Mills went down. If Diamon Simpson and Omar Samhan help St. Mary’s get by alright in the WCC until Mills can get back, and then play spectacularly with him around, there is still very much a glimmer of hope for an at-large bid. Consider them the Boba Fett of the teams mentioned here, they have the possibility to be eaten by a sarlacc and still come out alive (‘escape sarlacc’).

Kentucky
Jodie Meeks scored more points than an entire Big 10 team in one game and suddenly Kentucky exploded onto the scene as a force to be reckoned with in the SEC. Then two weeks ago twenty-fourth ranked Kentucky went into Oxford and lost to Ole Miss, setting off a three game losing streak that includes two losses in Rupp Arena to South Carolina and Mississippi State. This team has two scorers in Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson, each of whom have scored anywhere from 15 to 28 points in those losses. The Wildcats problem is very much related to the problem of Notre Dame’s downfall: a lack of support. The third leading scorer in each of those losses scored, 12, then 8, then 7 points. That won’t cut it when the team is giving up an average of 76 points in each of those losses. Unlike Notre Dame though, Kentucky has two solid scorers this season, and the benefit of playing in the SEC, but they do face a tough remainder of their conference schedule [Edit: Kentucky just beat Florida last night on a fadeaway three by Jodie Meeks...and then fouled Florida's Nick Calathes as he shot a three for the tie. Calathes missed all three free throws. Wow. I'm still sticking with the fact that they have bad losses and a tough schedule ahead].

Baylor
Baylor started the season 12-1. They were even ranked for a few weeks. Now they’re 3-6 in the Big 12. Baylor has the scorers in Curtis Jerrells, Kevin Rogers and LaceDarius (yes, that’s his real first name) Dunn coming off the bench. What they do have though is a defense that would rival Big 12 football teams. If you don’t follow college football, I’m referring to the fact that their defense is…lacking. In their last six losses they have given up 75 or more points. Not only would that kind of defense rival a Big 12 football team, but it’s about as useful as Reagan’s crazy “Star Wars” missile defense program of the 80s (the SDI, and okay, so I should’ve thought of that one on my own, but thank you ‘star wars defense’) or the Chewbacca Defense, were it to be used in real life (got that one on my own).


We’ve reached the point in the season where the downfall of these teams is beyond a mere hiccup or rough patch. These five teams were firmly considered tournament locks not even a month ago. Now their seasons’ have spiraled out of control like that ship when Anakin carries Obi-Wan to the ship’s bridge (‘star wars spiral out of control’) in Episode III. Alright, I have no idea what that reference is even talking about so I’m stopping while I’m ahead. The point? These teams have crashed hard over the last few weeks. I hope they have good insurance because they’re all just about total losses (Maybe from the Tattooine Planetary Insurance Company? They really have that in Star Wars [‘star wars insurance’]? You have got be kidding me).


This Week's Notable Performers (International Edition!)

The 'Gody v. Griffin Battle
Griffin - Griffin gets the nod this week, almost by default. He had 16 and 14 against Texas A&M and then 26 and 12 against Colorado. 'Gody? I hope he's not mailing it in already, although I'm sure he's pretty frustrated with his supporting cast. He had 5 points, 1 rebound, 4 turnovers and 1 shellacking at UCLA.

Hasheem Thabeet (Connecticut) - I had the chance to drive down to Storrs on Saturday to see the 7'3" Tanzanian take on Michigan. He didn't disappoint with 17 points, 12 boards and 6 blocks. UConn also responded to the challenge of a fired up Michigan squad that once led by as much as 8 late in the first half, until Stu Douglass missed a layup that would have stretched the lead to 10, That was the only mandate UConn needed to storm back for a win.
Jerome Jordan (Tulsa) - Jordan, the Caribbean native, makes his second appearance in this part of the column. After a few sluggish games he bounced back nicely with 22 points and 14 rebounds for the Golden Hurricane (how that name applies to Tulsa I have no idea) in a win over UTEP.
Soloman Alabi (Florida State) - The tall Nigerian freshman scored 17 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 blocks in the Seminoles upset of Clemson on Saturday. He even hit a jumper late in the second half to put Florida State up for good.
Alfred Aboya (UCLA) - Aboya, originally from Cameroon, led UCLA with 19 points and added 7 rebounds. He also shut down Luke Harangody on the defensive end as the Bruins dismantled of Notre Dame on Saturday.

Posted by Brian Doyle at 9:00 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Ides of March: Musical Chairs

With a resounding win at Louisville on Monday night, Connecticut looks to be on their way to holding the number one ranking for a second week in a row (pending the result of hosting Michigan on Saturday), which is more than a few other teams could say this season. But does it matter? In a playoff format involving 65 teams, does the subjective opinion of pollsters really matter?  If you’re a team, do you really want to be the number one team in the country and deal with the pressure and baggage that accompanies it? The answer to all of these questions is no. This isn’t college football where being the top team in a poll is your ticket to a national championship game. In college basketball, being the top team gives you a bulls eye on your chest, and less of a likelihood of even winning a national championship. Do you remember all the teams who were number one last season? Maybe one or two. Do you remember who won the national championship? It’s more likely. It was Kansas, who was never ranked number one. Did you remember that both Stanford and St. Joe’s were ranked at the top in 2004? Probably not, but you probably, at least vaguely, remember Emeka Okafor and Ben Gordon beating up on Georgia Tech to win the national championship. Yeah, it’s cool to say you’re number one, but is it really worth the baggage and the expectations?

This last month at the top of the polls has been pretty interchangeable, like a game of musical chairs where not sitting down gets you the number one ranking, you get the top spot and you lose (and teams are getting the top spot mainly because nobody else wants to stand up and take it). Let’s take a peek at the rankings of the top six teams (in the ESPN/USA Today poll) since December 29, North Carolina’s last week at number one.


The same six teams have been in the top six for over a month, with five of them taking the top spot at some point, and five of the six teams positioned in five of the six slots over the course of that time period (Wake Forest and North Carolina skipped being #5 on the way in and out, while Pittsburgh, Duke and Connecticut haven’t fallen to #6). What’s even more fascinating is that all of the top ranked teams (so far) this year have come from one of two conferences, which is pretty remarkable between five teams.

So that chart’s a little dizzying to look at (just wait until you see the the chart that looks at ranked teams in the Big East that I'll be releasing later in February), so what’s its point? There are two.  The first is that no team really wants to be number one, and it may be to their advantage.  The other is that the top six teams this college basketball season are like naming your favorite movies, they’re all so good that you just can’t always put them in order, it just wouldn’t be fair, plus they’re all different genres anyway. If I want a superhuman-like solo performance, I look to Batman Begins, which is like watching Oklahoma and Blake Griffin. Sure, there’s a surrounding cast, but it’s just Commissioner Gordon and that guy Morgan Freeman plays.  He’s great and all, and get’s Batman all his high tech equipment, but like Batman, it’s Blake Griffin who does all the work and gets results.

UConn and their defense is like a Godzilla movie. Thabeet’s swatting skills are just a newer version of Emeka Okafor, like how the Matthew Broderick version of Godzilla is to the classic version, not as good, but effective in getting its point across. Although I’m sure Jim Calhoun hopes Thabeet doesn’t lay any eggs in Madison Square Garden like his movie counterpart come Big East Tournament time.

If I want to slow things down, I put on a long, but ultimately great, movie like the Shawshank Redemption. That’s like Pitt, grinding away at wins and spending years and years with a rock pick before finally breaking into the top spot in the polls.

Wow that’s great, I just compared some basketball teams to movies (and skipped 3 of the teams…Duke is Top Gun, it takes a certain personality to actually like [and get] it, North Carolina is Casablanca, people only like it because everyone says it’s good and has some old classic actors, and Wake Forest is that good movie that everyone tells me about but I never have the time to watch), but other than not being able to keep the same top team for more than two weeks, how do these movies references apply to it not mattering if you’re ranked at the top? Back to the movie references!

I’m going back to the Shawshank Redemption (I don’t even read Bill Simmons anymore, but this movie just has too many ways to parallel to college basketball somehow). Andy Dufresne breaks out of prison (remember: breaking out of prison is like breaking into the number one spot, but it’s not good for the long run) and escapes to Mexico. Meanwhile, Red (Morgan Freeman, not the version in Batman Begins) takes his time, gets by like he always has in prison, stays under the radar, and finally tells the parole board what he knows will get him out of prison. So he’s a free man, but without all the hoopla, and guess what? He ends up getting to the Pacific coast of Mexico too! Now let’s exchange the name “Mexico” for the name “Final Four.” Red is the equivalent of a good team, it’s a top twenty team, but it stays under the radar by not becoming a number one ranked team that has to play with a bulls eye on its chest and with the expectations that come with it. Like Dufresne, the top ranked team has to muck through a regular season sewage pipe just to make it to Mexico (the kind of muck that lets UNC lose to BC and Wake lose to Virginia Tech) while facing the pressure of not being caught and put back in prison (losing it’s number one ranking). Granted Andy and Red are both winners in the movie, but in basketball only one person can come out on top. So, I think it’s better to be Red, but is there historical precedent for this? Let’s have a look:


2007-2008 
Sequence of #1 Teams: UNC, Memphis, Tennessee, UNC
 Final Four: Kansas, Memphis, UNC, UCLA
 National Champion: Kansas (Red)

2006-2007
Sequence of #1 Teams: Florida, UCLA, UNC, Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio St.
 Final Four: Florida, Ohio St., Georgetown, UCLA
 National Champion: Florida (Andy)

2005-2006 
Sequence of #1 Teams: Duke, UConn, Duke
 Final Four: Florida, UCLA, George Mason, LSU
 National Champion: Florida (Red)

2004-2005 
Sequence of #1 Teams: Kansas, Wake Forest, Illinois
 Final Four: UNC, Illinois, Louisville, Michigan St.
 National Champion: UNC (Red)

2003-2004 
Sequence of #1 Teams: UConn, Florida, UConn, Duke, Stanford, St. Joseph’s, Stanford
 Final Four: UConn, Georgia Tech, Duke, Oklahoma St.
 National Champion: UConn (Andy)

2002-2003 
Sequence of #1 Teams: Kentucky, Arizona, Alabama, Duke, Arizona, Kentucky
 Final Four: Syracuse, Kansas, Marquette, Texas
 National Champion: Syracuse (Red)


With the exception of 2003, at least one, and at times as many as three, former number one team has made the Final Four in the last six years, but Red still holds a 4-2 national championship lead over Andy. Sure, you could make the argument that there are only handful of former number one teams going up against a field of 65, so the odds are against them.  So what?  Not all teams are created equal.  After all, these are the best teams right?  Skill should overcome most of that math.  So will one of this year's current or former number ones (or future, Oklahoma is included because I think they are destined to rise to number one at some point this season, considering UConn’s Big East schedule and Oklahoma’s toughest remaining game comes at home against Kansas) become national champion? The odds are increased, considering how many of them there are (there will probably be six this year, the last time there were at least five different number one teams in a season, one of them ended up national champion), but this “Red” concept certainly makes the Louisvilles, Marquettes, and UCLAs of the world feel a little more optimistic. For now we can talk about the interchangeable teams at the top of the rankings and debate who should be number one, that’s cool with me. But like everyone else, I could care less about subjective labels, I care about who’s proven to be number one at the end of March.  Just keep in mind that it’s not always who you think it’ll be.


This Week's Notable Performers

The 'Gody v. Griffin Battle
'Gody - Both players only had one game this week. Blake had 23 and 15 at lowly Iowa St. while Harangody had 27 and 11 in a loss at Pittsburgh. Time to stop penalizing Harangody for his poor support and rewarding him for his consistency against tough competition.

Gani Lawall (Georgia Tech) - The sophomore, who is averaging a double-double this season, had 25 points and 10 rebounds in Tech's upset of Wake Forest last Saturday.
Nic Wise (Arizona) - Wise had 29 points and doled out 8 assists in an upset of Washington last week. Arizona has since climbed to within a game of .500 in conference play.
Jeff Adrien (Connecticut) - Flying mostly under the radar, Adrien's numbers don't exactly depict his contribution. Adrien had 13 rebounds and 12 points against DePaul and 18 points and 7 rebounds in big win at Louisville, defending UConn's top ranking.
Patty Mills (St. Mary's) - The Australian national came into halftime of last week's game against Gonzaga with 18 points, a 6 point lead, and a broken hand.  St. Mary's came into the second half without Mills and ended up with a loss at the Zags followed by another loss at up-and-coming Portland.  If all goes according to plan, Mills should be back in time for the WCC tournament.




Posted by Brian Doyle at 9:00 AM 3 comments
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Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Ides of March: What Happened to the SEC?

The SEC, which saw six teams get into the NCAA tournament last year, is having a down year, there's little doubt about that. The perception of this fact is due largely in part to at one point not having a team in the Top 25 for a short span. The reason why the SEC looks so different this year is because it doesn’t have a dominant team in the Top 10 (teams like the Tennessees, Floridas and Kentuckys of the past). That situation is further exacerbated by the depth and quality of the Big East, ACC, Big 10, and even the Big 12. While there is no dominant team on the national level, the SEC is not having an awful year. It’s not having a great year either, or even a good year, but we can expect anywhere from 3-5 teams to get into the tournament depending on how the rest of conference play goes (but most likely just 3 teams). Considering the prominence of the Big East, ACC, and Big 10 this year, who combined could take up 21 at-large bids, 3-5 bids is not bad at all for a conference that barely has Top 25 recognition, never mind a conference without a top tier powerhouse. Now let's take a look at the six SEC teams making a run at a tournament bid:

In

Kentucky 16-5 (5-1)
In Billy Gillispie’s second year as head coach, Kentucky struggled to an 0-2 start after losses against VMI and North Carolina. The Wildcats had a respectable non-conference schedule that included a win at West Virginia, and tough losses against Miami (FL) and a heartbreaking 3-point loss at Louisville, a team that is tearing through its Big East schedule. The emergence of Jodie Meeks, who is showing himself to be one of the nation’s top scorers, and Patrick Patterson, who is playing through a badly bruised finger and still averaging 18 points and 9 rebounds, had Kentucky undefeated (until a bad loss last night at Ole Miss, where Meeks shot 4-15, after starting 0-9) in conference play and firmly in the tournament come March.

Florida 17-3 (4-1)
The Gators’ lone hiccups this year have come at Syracuse, in a 2 point loss at Florida St. and a 1 point loss at South Carolina. Billy Donovan, now a year and a half removed from his four day stint with the Magic, had led his team to 10 straight wins before losing to South Carolina (by the way, if you didn’t see the incredibly way that game ended, check it out here). The team quickly rebounded from that loss in Columbia by throttling Vanderbilt by 25 and presumably getting back on track. Led by Nick Calathes’ 17 points a game, Florida looks to contend for the top spot in the SEC East with Kentucky. With a 1-2 record against the RPI Top 25 that includes those losses at formidable opponents like Syracuse and Florida St., Florida will be in good shape come March.

Tennessee 12-6 (3-1)
Tennessee has been the Jekyll and Hyde team in the SEC this season. The Volunteers are 3-1 against the RPI Top 25, and then 0-4 against the RPI 26-50. They still have the strongest RPI of any SEC team (26) and have faced the toughest non-conference schedule of any team I’ve seen so far this year. Their non-conference schedule included wins against two upper-echelon Big East teams in Georgetown and Marquette, and losses to Gonzaga (twice), at Kansas, and most recently a tough two point loss to Memphis. Their lone loss in conference play came from their inability to stop Kentucky’s Jodie Meeks, who put up 54 points against them. The only question with Tennessee is if they will take care of business in SEC conference play. A good indication of that will come when they face a 15-4 (3-1), but mostly unproven LSU squad tonight.

Hovering Near the Bubble

LSU 15-4 (3-1)
Take a look at LSU’s non-conference schedule and you’ll find more cupcakes than at a 5-year-old’s birthday party. They hold an unimpressive 0-3 record against the RPI Top 50 and have only faced one ranked team, losing at home to Xavier on Saturday. That said, the Tigers are still in the drivers seat for a potential fourth SEC tournament spot, meaning that they can control their own destiny. They have wins over both South Carolina and Mississippi St. to their advantage and have yet to face Tennessee (which they do tonight), Kentucky, and Florida, where wins could give them a huge boost in the eyes of the committee.

South Carolina 14-4 (3-2)
The Gamecocks are led by the backcourt duo of Devan Downey and Zam Frederick. They have a fairly unimpressive non-conference schedule, where they lost to Clemson but did win at Baylor. South Carolina came up with a big win over Florida on an amazing last second dunk by Frederick, but were also trounced by LSU prior to that. They are 1-1 against the RPI Top 25 and have the benefit of still playing Kentucky twice, and Florida and Tennessee once each before the end of the regular season. With the loss to LSU, South Carolina will need at least a 2-2 record in those four games, plus they are faced with the potential of a must-win game at Mississippi St. on February 18.

Mississippi St. 14-6 (4-1)
While the Mississippi St. non-conference schedule was not as easy as South Carolina's and LSU's, they did lose to a handful of seemingly non-tournament teams including Cincinnati, San Diego, Texas Tech, UNC Charlotte, and Washington State. They still manage to sit atop the SEC West by taking care of the likes of Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Alabama, but still have to travel to Tennessee and Kentucky. A February 11 matchup with LSU could make things interesting, or seal their fate, when it comes to edging out the Tigers for the fourth conference at-large bid, if the SEC is to get one.


The SEC finds itself in unknown waters. The conference is not nearly as impressive as it has been in years past. Outside of Jodie Meeks, who really just emerged almost out of nowhere after a mediocre Freshman year and an injury plagued Sophomore season, there are few nationally recognized stars in the conference. They sit sixth in conference RPI, the worst of the power conferences, edging out the Mountain West by a measly .005. Look for three teams to get in the tournament, but I’m not convinced that any team outside of the Meeks-Patterson duo at Kentucky is really capable of making a dent in March. If you’re an SEC fan I’d suggest you look forward more to this and this than to this.


This Week's Notable Performers

The 'Gody v. Griffin Battle - Luke Harangody and Blake Griffin could both be in this space every week, but that's just boring. So instead of being compared to the rest of college basketball, they'll go head to head every week and only one will appear in this slot. This week?
Griffin - In three games this week, Griffin averaged 24 points and 18 rebounds. Harangody only chimes in with 26.5 points and 16 rebounds against two measly top ten teams. Griffin gets the nod with Oklahoma's 3-0 record, sorry that Kyle McAlarney hasn't shown up in a while there Luke.

Jordan Hill (Arizona) - Hill had 30 points and 18 rebounds in an overtime win over Houston on Saturday. Spurred by teammate Chase Budinger getting his face stomped on, Hill led the Wildcats, who came back from 8 points down with under two minutes remaining to force the extra period.
Derrick Brown (Xavier) - Xavier came out of Baton Rouge with a solid win over an LSU squad that had yet to lose at home. Brown led the way with 22 points and 9 rebounds, including an efficient 7-11 from the field and 3-4 from beyond the arc.
Da’Sean Butler (West Virginia) - His 27 points and 8 boards helped take down Georgetown and give the Mountaineers a big road win in the Big East.


Posted by Brian Doyle at 9:00 AM 1 comments
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Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Ides of March: RPI, Subjectivity, and the Selection Committee

I like the Rating Percentage Index. I think RPI is a useful tool as it minds its own business mathematically portraying how college basketball teams stack up against each other. It has even been tweaked recently to reward away wins more than home wins, while doing a better job to slightly disregard away losses and make home losses hurt more. But how useful is RPI in both determining and predicting what teams will be allowed to play for a national championship come March?

Over the last few seasons, when it comes to selecting the field of 65, the selection committee has shown that subjectivity reigns over the math. Is that a bad thing? That depends on who you talk to. The committee certainly has to be subjective to differentiate between teams from tougher conferences and weaker conferences, along with comparing quality wins and atrocious losses. However, some of the decisions from the selection committee have been so subjective that it appears the RPI is about as useful to them as knowing Latin.

The 2006 NCAA Tournament featured four teams from the Missouri Valley Conference, two of which advanced to the Sweet 16. The mid-majors have arrived! Four teams came out of the MVC that year because the selection committee had absolutely no choice than to take three at large teams. The RPI of the four teams was 25, 27, 29, and 33.

A year later a team from the MVC had an RPI of 36 and a strength of schedule (SOS) of 21. The MVC was ranked sixth in conference RPI, ahead of even the Big 12. Those raw numbers would give any team, especially a team coming off a Sweet 16 appearance the year before, a good shot at making the tournament. No dice. Meet the Bradley University Braves, who with an RPI of 36 was actually the second best ranked RPI team left out by the selection committee. Is there a reasonable explanation for this? Yes. Let’s take a look at the three best RPI teams left out in 2007:

Air Force (22-8) –RPI 30, SOS 80
Bradley (21-12) – RPI 36, SOS 21
Missouri St. (21-11) – RPI 37, SOS 42

Not terrible right? Now their respective records against the RPI Top 50:

1-4
2-8
3-5

The teams didn’t cut it against top-tier competition, and they only have themselves to blame for that right? Now lets look at another team that made it into the tournament via an at-large bid:

Stanford (18-13), RPI 65, SOS 32

Okay, the Cardinal had a decent, at best, RPI and a SOS similar to the three snubbed mid-majors. Now let’s take a peek at how Stanford’s record against the RPI Top 50 set them apart from the top teams that didn’t make the tournament:

4-8

See? Wait a minute. 4-8 against the RPI Top 50? Is that really more impressive than the unimpressive performances by the mid-majors? Yes, the Pac-10 is a better conference, but to get into the tournament with less than 19 wins, more than 12 losses, and an RPI over 60 without being a conference champion (and with a 4-8 record against the top 50) is well…a little shocking. But wait, did Stanford finish strong? Maybe the committee took that into consideration. Nope. Stanford finished the season 1-4, the lone win coming over an Arizona St. team that finished 7-22. Remember Air Force? Now take a look at this score from a game in Palo Alto from that same 2007 season:

Air Force 79 Stanford 45.

That pretty much speaks for itself. That’s just being done in by both the math and subjective committee member opinions who overlooked that score. Now I don’t mean to pick on Stanford, I have nothing against them. So let’s take a look at a few more examples, this time from 2008, of what I call committee over-subjectivity (records against RPI Top 50 in second parentheses):

In
Kentucky (18-13) –RPI 57, SOS 19 (4-6)
Oregon (18-13) – RPI 58, SOS 37 (4-9)

Out
Dayton (21-10) – RPI 32, SOS 33 (4-4)
Illinois St. (23-9) – RPI 33, SOS 71 (2-5)


The trend seems to be that snubbed teams are from smaller conferences and are overtaken by big name schools from better conferences, but certainly not much better resumes. But what about when power conference teams are compared? Two of the following three teams made the tournament in 2008:

Ole Miss (21-10) – RPI 48, SOS 65 (5-3)
Kansas St. (19-11) – RPI 50, SOS 34 (3-6)
Villanova (20-12) –RPI 51, SOS 47 (4-7)


If you guessed, remembered, or looked up that Ole Miss was the odd team out, you’re right. The difference? Ole Miss went 7-9 in the SEC, Kansas St. went 10-6 in the Big 12 and Villanova went 9-9 in the Big East. So it’s not so much what your RPI is or how well you do against top tier RPI teams, but in this case almost certainly how well you do in your league. And for the record, I don’t think a team that is under .500 in conference play should be in the tournament (of course the Big East this season will probably have me backtracking on this statement). This is an example of good committee subjectivity, or at least logical subjectivity.


Now, selection committee subjectivity isn’t just a game of who’s in and who’s out. It also comes into play with seeding. Time for some more hands-on fun. You’re on the selection committee and the committee has decided that these two teams are in the tournament. It’s now your turn to seed them (again with the Top 50 records):

26-6, RPI 7, SOS 30, (8-4)
20-10, RPI 55, SOS 49 (7-4)

If you think both of these teams should be #4 seeds, you too have the ability to be as subjective as the selection committee. Meet Southern Illinois (RPI 7) and Virginia (RPI 55) from 2007.

Subjectivity isn’t bad. Subjectivity can be useful. It can certainly differentiate between the likes of Ole Miss, Kansas St., and Villanova and it can help decide between teams with similar resumes.

Sometimes, though, subjectivity from the committee gets to be a bit much, like when well known names like Kentucky and Stanford are sneaking in the tournament when more deserving but lesser known schools have to go host an opening round game in the NIT. When subjectivity puts teams separated by 48 spots in the RPI ranking as equals, it means that those taking the RPI rankings as a guide really don’t take the RPI rankings seriously. If this trend continues, unfortunately, for the sake of staying on the same page as the selection committee, it may get to the point where neither can we.

Keep all this in mind as the college basketball season progresses. It’s not flawless, but I’m a fan of the RPI system. If you’re using the rankings to predict at-large bids, even as part of a bigger team resume, take them with a huge grain of salt; because the selection committee, after all, has been unpredictable.



This Week's Notable Performers

Luke Harangody (Notre Dame) – Harangody led the Irish with 25 points (including a 3 pointer), 16 rebounds, and 6 assists against Syracuse on Sunday. Unfortunately for him, Kyle McAlarney was the only other Irish player to show up in the 19 points loss.
Syracuse – Four players had 14 or more points in an all around 93-74 dismantling of Notre Dame on Saturday. Conversely, only two players reached double digits in their 18 point loss to Pittsburgh on Monday night.
Ryan Tillema (Wisconsin - Green Bay) – The Phoenix's leading scorer performed well in two bigs wins over Horizon Conference foes, scoring 24 points in a two point win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee, and then putting up 19 points and 10 rebounds against Cleveland State.
Lawrence Westbrook (Minnesota) – Westbrook scored 29 points, including a game tying three to send the game to overtime, as Minnesota came back from a 9 point deficit with three minutes left in regulation to earn a win at Wisconsin last Thursday.


Posted by Brian Doyle at 9:00 AM 2 comments
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Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Ides of March: The Mid-Major Outlook

Welcome to my new column, where I cover college basketball leading up to Selection Sunday, which is just two short months from now. I’ll do my best to break down who should be in, who should be out, and who may feel, well, stabbed in the back on March 15 (that’s Selection Sunday).

Mid-majors had six at-large bids in last year’s tournament (A-10: St. Joe’s, Xavier, MWC: BYU, Sun Belt: South Alabama, and WCC: Gonzaga and St. Mary’s). Only one “surprise” conference tournament winner from these conferences last year (San Diego in the WCC) meant that heading into the 2008 conference tournaments there were five definitive at-large bids allocated to mid-major teams.

There’s a very good chance that there will be less this year. With strong years expected from power conference teams, power conferences could come out with anywhere up to 31 of the 34 at-large bids for the tournament. That would leave as little as three at-large bids for mid-majors. Let’s take a look at mid-major conference resumes up to this point:

A-10: Dayton, despite coming off a bad opening loss in conference play, is likely to be the lone at-large bid from this conference, coming in behind projected conference champion Xavier. Dayton is aided by a win at Marquette and is 2-0 against the RPI top 25. URI would be next in line for a bid, but their resume isn’t quite strong enough. While they lost by 3 against Duke, their best win is at Penn St. The Rams face Xavier tomorrow for their only matchup of the season but have little chance of improving their tournament prospects outside of Cuttino Mobley somehow finding eligibility.

CAA: This one bid conference gave us a Final Four team just three short years ago, but has no wins against quality non-conference opponents among its top teams (George Mason, VCU, and Northeastern). In fact, the whole conference is 0-fer against the RPI top 50.

Conference USA: This is, once again, a one-bid conference. The conference’s 3 combined wins against the RPI top 50 come from Houston and and UTEP, not from Memphis (0-3). Still, Memphis should be your champion and lone representative.

Horizon: Chances are that if Butler wins the conference tournament, this is a one-bid conference. However, don’t be surprised to see Cleveland St. make a run at an at-large bid. They had a very tough schedule to start the season, playing Washington, Kansas St., and West Virginia before finally getting a quality win at Syracuse. It may not be enough, but a strong conference performance (they’re 4-2 right now, with a 2 point loss against Butler) could be capped off with a statement win at Butler on February 28; a win that would be fresh in the committee’s mind come Selection Sunday. For now though, they have two big games coming up, both away at Wisconsin-Green Bay and Wisconsin-Milwaukee, both of whom could also make a run at an at-large bid.

Mountain West Conference: This conference should easily get at least one at-large bid. I was ready to anoint Utah and BYU as conference front-runners, but Utah just came off a loss (albeit in a tough road game) at San Diego State. Right now I would put BYU and San Diego St. out in front, but look for one of Utah or UNLV (who still hold a one point win at Louisville that they can show off to the committee in March) to sneak in the back door if there are few or no upsets in conference championship games across the country.

Missouri Valley Conference: This conference has yet to record a win against an RPI top 25 team and no one has a win over an RPI top 50 team outside of conference play. The RPI of the top teams says that, right now, this should be a multi-bid conference. But those same RPIs have been dropping like rocks as conference play has gotten underway. This is one conference where parity among the top four or five teams will hurt its chances of an at-large bid, thanks to mostly poor non-conference schedules. With strong power conferences this year, Drake at Bradley on February 28 could give us an idea of which team will represent the conference come March.

WAC: I’d be very interested in watching a Utah St. v. Boise St. de facto tournament play-in game in the WAC Conference Championship game. Look for a hook and ladder on a court-length pass from the Broncos to send the game to overtime. Unfortunately for Bronco fans, in overtime Boise St. will probably go for two instead of a tie. They’ll be down by 3. I think Utah St. represents the conference’s lone bid come mid-March.

West Coast Conference: Gonzaga and St. Mary’s look like sure things. Flip a coin on which becomes conference champion (my coin says St. Mary’s). No one else seems interested in making a run at the bubble.


Based on above, there’s the potential for 3-5 at large bids from these conferences (1 from the A-10, 0 to 1 from Horizon, 1 or 2 from the MWC, and 1 from the WCC), depending on their resumes compared to middle-of-the-pack power conference teams.

Then there are, of course, the power conferences. The mid-major bid predictions can’t be made in a vacuum. The Big East has 8 ranked teams, plus West Virginia lingering in the “Others Receiving Votes” category. I’ll get to the Big East in a later column, but keep in mind that Providence (who right now would represent the tenth team in) has a favorable schedule that could get them to 9 or 10 (or more) conference wins. The ACC and Big Ten are both strong this year too. So how does the strength of these power conferences affect the likelihood of teams in those power conferences of getting at-large bids (and inversely the likelihood of mid-major at-large bids)? If a lot Big East teams make it to 12-15 wins, that decreases the likelihood of other Big East teams getting to 9 wins (.500 in the league, which is pretty respectable), therefore decreasing the amount of at-large Big East bids, which opens up a spot for a mid-major team. How will this situation turn out? Thus far, it’s too early to tell from major conference play. That's fine, but will the tough schedules in the Big East help or hurt the conference in maximizing the number of Big East teams that get into the tournament? I like to think of this fun analogy as ranked Big East teams keep going up against each other:

The Big East, it’s pretty clear, is the deepest conference. It’s also a very big conference, like, let's say, the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man as he rises above New York City. Now let’s say Notre Dame beats Georgetown who beats Syracuse who beats Notre Dame, and the Big East season continues with this sort of circular parity. Now imagine the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man getting hungry, taking a break from destroying things, and taking a bite out of his own arm (Ridiculous? I know, just like the Big East. Stick with me here). That's the equivalent of ranked Big East teams beating each other into parity. But does the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man become weaker by taking a chunk out of his own arm? Maybe, but you also have to keep in mind that he’s made out of marshmallow…and he’s eating more marshmallow. So does that mean he’s making himself stronger? Not really, but he’s also not really losing anything either. That puts us back at square one, which is where most people think that the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man will get anywhere from 8-10 teams into the NCAA tournament.

It will end up being the amount of parity in the Big East, and other major conferences, that directly affects the at-large bids of the mid-majors. For the mid-majors, the less parity there is in power conferences, the better.


This Week's Notable Performers

Jodie Meeks (Kentucky) – Meeks, who has topped 30 points five times this season, asserted himself in an amazing performance last night at Tennessee by breaking school records in three pointers made (10) and points in a game (54). Kentucky scored 90 points and only one other player scored more than 7 of them.
Terrence Williams (Louisville) – The Cardinals’ third leading scorer had 24 points, 16 rebounds, and 8 assists in a big overtime win against Notre Dame Monday night. His teammate Earl Clark also had an incredible drive and dunk on Luke Harangody.
Jerome Jordan (Tulsa) – The seven foot Jamaican, who has 5 double-doubles in his last 6 games, had 20 points, 13 rebounds and 4 blocks in a heartbreaking one point loss to Memphis last night. His performance included a solid 6 of 7 from the free throw line, where he’s shooting 75% on the season.
Jeremy Lin (Harvard) – Lin had 27 points and 8 assists in a 12 point win over Boston College, who was fresh off their upset of North Carolina.


Posted by Brian Doyle at 9:00 AM 3 comments
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