People up and down the east coast, and across the country, have been bickering over which conference is better: the ACC or the Big East. Generally, the people involved in these discussions come from an ACC or Big East school or city, and generally side with their conference. The entire world was predicting that the Big East was going to be able to get 10 teams into the tournament. I’m not ruling out the possibility (the stars can still align), but what everyone seemed to forget is that all of these teams had to play each other over the course of conference play. Back in January I compared the Big East to the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man. The Big East was bound to beat itself up, but what mattered is how pollsters and bracketologists perceived the inevitable parity. Well, the pollsters apparently didn’t see the middle tier teams of the Big East as rank-worthy. Take a look at how the USA Today/ESPN rankings of Big East teams played out from the beginning of conference play until now:
They’ll have to take solace in five top 15 teams and the top two teams in the country. The first time a conference has had the top two teams in the country since…uh January 19 when Wake Forest and Duke held the top spots.
Now let’s take a peek at how the ACC and Big East did against each other this season. But there needs to be other factors taken into account, like who was supposed to win. How are we supposed to know who was supposed to win, isn’t that a little subjective? Not when your turn to the professionals in Vegas who put their money on the line for figuring out who’s supposed to win. So below you’ll find the sixteen games between the ACC and Big East this season, along with who was supposed to win and who won. Meet you at the bottom.
November 18
St. John’s at Boston College
Line: BC -8.5
Final: BC 82-70
November 19
South Florida at Virginia
Line: Virginia -7
Final: Virginia 77-75
November 23
Connecticut v. Miami (FL) (neutral site)
Line: UConn -4
Final: UConn 76-63
November 23
Seton Hall v. Virginia Tech (neutral site)
Line: Virginia Tech -5
Final: Seton Hall 77-73
November 26
Notre Dame v. North Carolina (neutral site)
Line: North Carolina -10.5
Result: North Carolina 102-87
November 28
Virginia at Syracuse
Line: Syracuse -16
Final: Syracuse 73-70
November 28
Cincinnati v. Florida St. (neutral site)
Line: Cincy -2.5
Result: Florida St. 58-47
November 30
Georgetown v. Maryland (neutral site)
Line: Georgetown -5.5
Final: Georgetown 75-48
December 20
Providence at Boston College
Line: Boston College -4.5
Final: BC 81-76
December 21
St. John’s v. Virginia Tech (neutral site)
Line: St. John’s -1
Final: Virginia Tech 81-67
December 21
Pittsburgh at Florida St.
Line: Pitt -7.5
Final: Pitt, 56-48
December 22
Marquette at NC State
Line: Marquette -2
Final: Marquette 68-65
December 27
Miami at St. John’s
Line: Miami -3
Final: Miami 70-56
December 28
Rutgers at North Carolina
Line: UNC -33
Final: UNC 97-75
January 17
Georgetown at Duke
Line: Duke -9
Final: Duke 76-67
February 19
St. John’s at Duke
Line: Duke -14
Final: Duke 76-69
Oddsmakers: ACC should go 9-7
Actual: ACC 10-6
RPI Wins (in RPI, a home win is 0.6 wins, a road win is 1.4 and a neutral win is 1.0): ACC 8.0-6.4
Just a few things of note from above:
--8 of 10 non-neutral site games were played at the ACC team.
--Both conferences were 3-3 at neutral sites.
--St. John’s went 0-4 against the ACC.
--The only game between the top 6 teams in each conference was Pitt‘s win at Florida State.
--Duke and North Carolina, the top two teams in the ACC, played in and won 4 games against the bottom half of the Big East while the top two teams in the country, UConn and Pitt combined for 2 wins, one against a ranked ACC team.
If there actual was a ACC/Big East challenge, St. John’s obviously would not be partaking in 4 of the games. The fact of the matter is that the top teams in each conference ended up playing the bottom end teams in the opposing conference. So what does this tell us? Well, those head to head games really doesn’t tell us all that much except that the ACC outperformed the early oddsmakers by a game. ACC teams were favored more often because, as previously mentioned, a top ACC team was playing a bottom Big East team. Sorry that this doesn't tell us much, but it was fun to look at it wasn’t it?
Where do I stand? I admit that the middle tier of ACC teams are better than I thought they would be this season. That said, the top eight teams in the Big East are better than any other top eight in any conference, maybe ever. I can’t fathom the likes of Georgetown and Notre Dame being 2 or 4 games under .500 in the ACC. Sorry ACC fans, it just would not happen. The ACC is first in Conference RPI and the ACC has 11 teams in the RPI top 100. The Big East? They have 11 teams in the top 80.
The Big East proponents have their arguments: the depth of the conference is unheard of. Would anyone in the ACC ever play five straight ranked teams in a row in conference play (something Notre Dame did in January)?
ACC supporters have their arguments too: well what about those awful teams that make up teams 13-16 in the Big East? Big East fans can’t just jettison the bottom fourth of their league. Yes it’s pretty clear that DePaul, for example, isn’t very good this year but after their game tonight against Villanova, nine of their last eleven games (all in conference) will have been against a team in the top 12 in the national rankings. Nine of their last eleven games! I’d like to see any team navigate that kind of schedule. Boston College couldn’t even navigate a win over Harvard (okay so teams from both conferences have some bad losses, but still).
What’s the best way to solve all this? I think the best way is to see the best teams head to head when it matters. March (or early April). Right now most of this argument is pretty subjective. The tournament will take care of that by presumably pitting these two conferences' tournament caliber teams against each other throughout March. Last week I suggested that one of the best ways to evaluate national player of the year would be for Notre Dame to storm back and pick up an 8 or 9 seed in Oklahoma’s bracket (they’re going to do it. They have three home games left, win all three, finish 9-9 in conference, win a game or two in the Big East tournament and I think that could sneak them in as a 9 seed). Let’s see them go head to head in the tournament. Show me DeJuan Blair against Tyler Hansbrough, I know who I’d take in 2009.
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2 comments:
Interesting that if you go by straight RPI, Big East is 3rd!
Conference, Avg. RPI, Avg. SOS, SOS Rank
1 - ACC, 0.5929, 0.5758, 1
2 - Big Ten, 0.5828, 0.5756, 2
3 - Big East, 0.5791, 0.5738, 3
4 - Big 12, 0.5767, 0.5655, 4
5 - Pac-10, 0.5710, 0.5637, 5
6 SEC, 0.5570, 0.5473, 6
I think a lot of people have underestimated the quality of play in the Big Ten this year. Teams like Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue and Illinois might turn some heads in the tournament. Obviously, I am not saying the Big Ten is better than the Big East or the ACC. I am only pointing out that some of the powerhouses in those conferences might have issues during tournament time if they look past the Big Ten.
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