Andre Dawson - The Hawk was just shy of the 75% of votes needed for election, with 67% last year. Since Jim Rice was elected last year and Dawson is better statistically than Rice, I think Dawson makes it this year.
Robert Alomar - Arguably the best second baseman in baseball during his generation, Alomar is also known for spitting in the face of an umpire. A 12-time all-star and .300 career hitter, Alomar makes it on the first try.
Bert Blyleven - Blyleven will lose eligibility for election by the writers if not elected by 2012 and he's been gradually getting more and more votes. A career 287 game-winner, he ranks in the top ten all-time in shutouts and strikeouts. I think he deserves enshrinement, but I have a feeling he falls just shy this year.
Barry Larkin - Alan Trammell is also on the ballot, but Larkin's numbers are a bit better than Trammell's. Larkin was an excellent shortstop for the Reds, earning an all-star selection for 12 of his 19 big league seasons. I'd give him around 50% of the vote.
Lee Smith - Before Trevor Hoffman became the all-time saves leader, it was Lee Smith. I remember they used to time his walk from the bullpen to the mound and boy was it slow. He was at 44.5% last year and I think he falls short this year. As more and more relievers get elected (see: Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage), Smith's chances get better.
Tim Raines - Raines was overshadowed by Rickey Henderson last year and while Henderson's number were better than Raines, Raines is most certainly a Hall-of-Famer. On that note, it's hard to go from 23% of the vote to 75%, but I expect Raines' votes to surge toward that mark this year, with election next year.
Edgar Martinez - The first "true" Designated Hitter to be on the ballot with a chance at election, Martinez was a great hitter, but I think he'll face a bit of an uphill climb to election. Relievers faced a similar struggle when the use of relief pitchers evolved to where it is today and I think Designated Hitters will struggle for a few years. Is Martinez a Hall of Famer? .312 career average, 300+ home runs, 1261 RBI, and seven all-star selections. Maybe.... but not this year.
Others - My guess is that Mark McGwire will still hover around 25% of the vote, although I'd vote for him. Jack Morris was at 44% last year and he may see an increase in votes, but won't come close to election. The first-time eligible players are always interesting. Mo Vaughn, of all people, got votes last year. I wouldn't be shocked to see Kevin Appier, Eric Karros, Fred McGriff, Robin Ventura, and Andres Galarraga get a handful of votes each, deservedly so or not.
Posts
1 comments:
Anyone who doesn’t get in this year is going to be hard pressed to get in at all in the next 5 years. This is, frankly, a pretty weak to average class this year.
Post a Comment