Down on the Farm: Prospect watch

We are going to take a look at how some of the top prospects in the minors are doing so far this season and what it might mean for them in the future. This isn't just going to be a look at career minor leaguers tearing it up, or a list of the guys most likely to be called up. Rather it will focus on legit MLB prospects regardless of their ETA to the big leagues.

Jay Bruce-OF Louisville Bats:

Now with Evan Longoria called up Jay Bruce is the best prospect in the all the Minor Leagues. We have mentioned Bruce before in talking about top outfield prospects looking to make their big league club out of Spring Training. Lacking a lead-off hitter and needing a center fielder the Reds signed Corey Patterson instead of keeping Bruce with the team, making their loss the Louisville Bats gain. Bruce has been tearing up AAA pitching so far hitting .325-5-24 while adding 7 steals in just 126 at bats. Bruce is a great outfield prospect and while he profiles more as a long-term corner outfielder, Bruce can handle center for a year adding both power and speed to the Reds line-up.

Outlook: When the season started Corey Patterson went on a hot streak and it seemed like the Reds made the right choice. Now one month later the Reds sit in the cellar of the NL-Central and Patterson's average has dropped to .200. It is the perfect time to shake things up with the team and inject some energy into the batting order. I think the Reds will call Bruce up before the end of the month, look for Bruce to put up some quality numbers and help the Reds in the standings.

Homer Bailey-SP Louisville Bats:

Homer Bailey is another Reds top prospect that we've talked about before. Bailey had mixed results in his two stints in Cincinnati last season but finished strong. He seemed like a lock for the Reds rotation heading into Spring Training, but mediocre results led to Bailey being passed on the depth chart by two fellow prospects, Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. Bailey went back to Louisville and has looked pretty sharp so far compiling a 4-3 record with a 2.72 ERA in 46 innings pitched. Due to his up and down performance last season and his inability to secure a spot in the rotation this year, some have began to question whether Bailey will ever be a top pitcher. I think those questions are a bit premature as Bailey just turned 22 last week and has been dominate at level in the minors.

Outlook: Bailey has front of the rotation talent and should be there for the Reds for a number of years. Aaron Harang and Volquez have their spots secure in the rotation, and Cueto should have another spot locked down even though he has had some recent struggles. Bronson Arroyo and Matt Belisle on the other hand haven't been getting the job done for the Reds. While Arroyo's large contract may prevent the Reds from pulling him from the rotation, Bailey seems like a perfect fit for Belisle's spot. While he might not make it to Cincinnati as quickly as Bruce, Bailey has nothing left to prove in the minors and could be exactly what the last place Reds need (see above). Look for Bailey to join fellow youngsters Volquez and Cueto in the Reds rotation by the All-star break and for him to remain there for the next few years.

Matt LaPorta-OF Huntsville Stars:

Matt LaPorta was the 7th overall pick in the 2007 Draft by the Brewers. A college senior at the time LaPorta seemed like an odd pick for the Brewers as he had only ever been a first-baseman in college for the Florida Gators. The Brewers already having Prince Fielder at first made the decision to move LaPorta to the outfield. So far the results have been pretty good, last year in just 115 at bats LaPorta hit .304-12-31. This season moving up to Double-A, LaPorta has continued his assault on opposing pitchers, batting .330-10-36 through 32 games. LaPorta has 40 home run power easily and though he won't win batting titles should hit consistently around .300.

Outlook: While LaPorta has crushed minor league pitchers so far, he's probably not ready for the big leagues yet as he is just 23 and has only 230 professional at bats under his belt. Unless the Brewers get desperate I wouldn't expect to see LaPorta in Milwaukee this season unless its as a September call-up. Look for him to continue his monster year in the minors and force the Brewers to free up a corner outfield spot next season by moving either Ryan Braun or Corey Hart to center. He is a classic middle of the order hitter that has 40 home run, 100 RBI potential every season.

Clayton Kershaw-SP Jacksonville Suns:

The Los Angeles Dodgers made Kershaw their 1st round pick in 2006, almost two years later he has done nothing to disappoint them in their decision. He is arguably the best left-handed pitcher in the minors if not the best pitcher overall. In his professional debut out of high school in 2006, Kershaw went 2-0 with a 1.95 ERA in 37 innings. In that span he struckout 54 batters while only surrendering 4 walks. He continued his success in '07 by going 8-7 with a 2.95 ERA between two levels. He held opposing batters to a .201 average, with striking out 163 in just 122 innings. This season the Dodgers promoted Kershaw to Double-A and while just looking at at his 0-3 record it would seem as though he has struggled but a look deeper in to his stat line shows that he is still overpowering hitters. Kershaw lost his first three decisions by giving up one, two and one run respectively. He hasn't given up a run since April 15th dropping his season ERA to 1.08. Through 33 innings he has walked 11 and struck out 37, while holding batters to a .192 average.

Outlook: Kershaw, though only 20 years old, is on the fast track to LA, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him as a September call-up. Outside of that though Kershaw should spend the entire year in the minors as he had only 159 professional innings pitched going into this season. Due to injury and ineffectiveness there are calls for the Dodgers to move Kershaw up as soon as mid season. This could be a risky move as moving him too fast could hinder Kershaw's development. If the Dodgers are smart they will give Kershaw the entire year in the minors and give him a shot to win a rotation spot next season. Once he's there though he has the talent to be among the most dominate lefties in the game.

Hope everyone has a good week! Check back next week for more updates on top prospects.

Down on the Farm: Minor League Preview

Last week the big league clubs weren't the only teams to start their season up as the four levels of full season minor league ball had their opening day as well. We are going to focus this week of "Down on the Farm" on some of the top Triple-A teams and the talented players that make up their rosters. We are going to look at three AAA teams; these are not necessarily the teams I think will win their respective leagues but rather the teams with the most talented major league prospects.

Triple-A:

Durham Bulls (Tampa Bay Rays), International League:

Thankfully for Rays fans the Bulls have more than "Crash" Davis and "Nuke" LaLoosh on their ball club this year, as the Bulls team has a great balance of pitching and hitting prospects.

On the mound: The Bulls feature a nice rotation with three legitimate starters led by former first round pick Jeff Niemann. Niemann who we've talked about before at SportsJudge is a potential frontline starter if he can stay healthy. Last season for the Bulls he went 12-6 with a 3.68 ERA, and if he continues to pitch like that for the team he should be in line for a mid-season call-up. Joining Niemann in the rotation are a pair of solid righties in Chris Mason and Mitch Talbot. Mason has the higher upside of the two, while Talbot is closer to the big leagues. Mason should be a pitcher to watch this year as he is making the jump from Double-A, where he went 15-4 with a 2.57 ERA and was named his leagues pitcher of the year.

In the line-up: Even before the Rays made the surprising decision to keep top prospect Evan Longoria in the minors, the Bulls had a very talented line-up. Now I wouldn't expect Longoria to stay in the minors for much more than a month he will be hitting in the middle of a great batting order. With Longoria in the heart of the order is shortstop Reid Brignac, who is among the top hitting shortstops in all of the minors. Despite hitting just .260 last season in Double-A Brignac led the league in extra base hits with 52 and drove in 81 runs. With Jason Bartlett as the major league starting shortstop, Brignac will get a full year at AAA to fine tune his game, which should be to the benefit of the Durham team. At the top of the order the Bulls will have center-fielder Fernando Perez. Perez is pure speed and one of the fastest players in the minors swiping 32 bases last year in AA. Perez had 42 extra base hits to go along with a .308 average and a .423 OBP. Perez has 50+ steal potential and if he continues to improve his on base percentage and defense he could be forcing his way onto the Rays in '09. The Bulls round out their impressive line-up with MLB talented prospects outfielder Justin Ruggiano and infielder Joel Guzman, while neither will likely be an all-star both should have solid careers as platoon type of players.

Indianapolis Indians (Pittsburgh Pirates), International League:

The Indians really represent the Pirates future as they boast the Pirates three best prospects in both talent and major league readiness. While the Indians don't have the up and down talent of say the Bulls, they have something most minor league teams lack and that is three players who will be in the heart of the Pirates opening day line-up come 2009.

On the Mound: The Indians don't have much in their rotation even though they have three former first round picks in their group in Sean Burnett, Bryan Bullington, John Van Benschoten. All three have battled injuries and disappointments in their careers and due to their age's aren't thought of as prospects anymore. Burnett has moved to the bullpen and had a terrific spring. If he proves his arm can hold up to pitching on consecutive days he should be up in the Pirates pen before long. Outside of that Bullington and Van Benschoten are look more like spot starters than rotation mainstays.

In the line-up: The true strength of the Indians lies in their line-up that has the Pirates three top prospects. They are led by 2005 first round pick centerfielder Andrew McCutchen, who is the definition of a five-tool player. He can do it all and may not even play the whole year in AAA if he keeps performing. McCutchen struggles with to many strikeouts but if he raises his on-base percentage he should be the Pirates lead-off hitter for years to come. He has 15-20 HR power and has the speed to steal 40 or more bases when he becomes an everyday player in the big leagues. McCutchen is not alone in the outfield when it comes to talented players as he is joined this year by Steven Pearce the first baseman turned outfielder. Pearce who've we've mentioned before has big time power potential and once he learns the outfield will force the Pirates to make a trade to give him an everyday spot. Pearce is a masher hitting 31 homeruns last season and should stay in that range when he gets to the majors. He should be a middle of the order hitter who should consistently hit for .300 and drive in 90-100 runs. The final member of the Pirates trio is 2004 first round pick, third baseman Neil Walker. Walker is entering only his second season at the hot corner after spending his first three years in the organization as a catcher. Walker struggled some early on in learning the new position but if he shows improvement this year in his defense he will be playing in PNC park soon enough. Walker is not the next David Wright or Ryan Zimmerman but should be in that second tier of third baseman and be there for a number of years.

Salt Lake Bees (Los Angeles Angels), Pacific Coast League:

The Bees roster is a perfect example of a good system with a top major league team forcing the organization to keep their best prospects stuck in the minors rather than them playing for a big league team. The Bees have a solid mix of pitching and hitting including the Angels top prospect for each category.

On the mound: The Bees have Nick Green in the rotation and Jose Arredondo in the bullpen two guys who should both have an impact in the big leagues. The true gem of the Bees pitching staff is 21 year old Nick Adenhart who is among the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. Last season in Double-A Adenhart went 10-8 with a 3.65 ERA, while those numbers might not jump off the page for you he was in a very advanced and hitter friendly level for his age. Adenhart will be a great big league pitcher and should get his first taste of pro ball this season most likely as an injury replacement. Look for him to have a permanent spot in the rotation come 2009.

In the line-up: On more than a few teams in the league Bobby Wilson would be the back up catcher, and Terry Evans would be a fourth outfielder while Sean Rodriguez and Kendry Morales would be getting 450+ at bats at second and first respectively. In the Angels system though all of these players are all stuck another year in AAA. Morales has the most talent of the bunch and could be a .280-25 homerun type of first baseman. Rodriguez also has a bright future; he can play either middle infield spot, has decent 15-20 home run power and will steal around the same number of bags. If Rodriguez shows he can raise his average some and take a few walks he will be a good hitter in the two hole and a solid everyday second baseman. The pride of the Angels system is SS/3B Brandon Wood. The 23 year old has great power, solid speed and will be a fixture on the left side of the infield for some team for the foreseeable future. What does remain to be seen is if that future is with the Angels. Despite not having great options at either short or third the Angels kept Wood in the minors rather than let him learn at the major league level. Wood will never win a batting crown but he does have big time power that deserves a chance on the Angels. The Angels though are competing for a division title and don't have the luxury to give Wood and everyday job in the majors.

Hope everyone enjoyed this insight in to some of the better teams in the minors. Join us next week as we look at some of the top Double-A talent. Also feel free to ask any questions on minor league players or teams. Have a great week!

Down on the Farm: Recap

With the season under way and everyone making the final touches to their fantasy rosters I wanted to take the oppurtunity this week to reflect on a number of the players we've talked about in this column. We are going to look at 5 must have prospects, 5 to watch for and 5 to stay away from for right now. Another note none of these prospects will be from my "Sophomore Surprise" column in Feburary all five of those players have very good fantasy outlooks to start the season.

Must Haves:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury- CF Red Sox- Ellsbury wasn't traded for Santana instead the Sox held on to their top hitting prospect and will probably have a more potent offense because of it. Ellsbury probably won't start the season at the top of the Sox order but he should finish their. Regardless of where he's hitting, in this offense he will score plenty of runs and should give your team some nice stolen base production. Ellsbury should be drafted in all mixed leagues as a third or fourth outfielder.

2. Adam Jones- CF Orioles- Jones the key part of the Bedard trade is going

Down on the Farm: Road Blocked

This week on "Down on the Farm" we are going to take a look at a few prospects that are Major League ready but lack an everyday opportunity on their team as it currently stands. These players will either be in the minors or on the bench waiting for an injury or trade to open up a spot for them. As it stands now these players shouldn't be drafted with the exception of deep keeper leagues, but if they get a chance to start they should all be considered priority waiver wire pick-ups.

(1) Jeff Clement-C Seattle Mariners: If Jeff Clement was a starting catcher he could be one of the top five fantasy catchers in the league. Unfortunately for Clement and fantasy owners he will only be the starting catcher in AAA Tacoma. The former 3rd overall pick of the 2005 draft doesn't have much more to prove in the minors, where he hit .275 (AVG)-20 (HR)-80 (RBI) in just 455 at bats, but figures to get one more year of AAA as the team is set with Kenji Johjima at catcher. The Mariners have considered playing Clement at first base or as their DH to get his power bat in their line-up but already have big money tied into veterans Richie Sexon and Jose Vidro. It looked at one point this off-season that Clement might be traded to the Orioles in the Erik Bedard deal giving him more of an opportunity but the M's decided to hang on to their young catcher. Barring an injury or trade Clement won't be much of a fantasy option in 2008, look for him to breakout in '09 putting up Brian McCann type numbers.

(2) Steven Pearce-1B/OF Pittsburgh Pirates: It's hard to imagine that the second worst team in baseball last year would be able to keep their best minor league hitter out of the opening day lineup but that looks to be the Pirates game plan. Pearce, who last year had a breakout campaign in the minors hitting .333-31-113 in 487 at bats over three levels of minor league ball, is ready to add his bat to the middle of the Pirates order. Pearce who has been a first baseman his entire career is looking to make a position change to the outfield since Adam LaRoche looks to be the Pirates man on first for the foreseeable future. The position change may help Pearce become an everyday starter sooner but still leaves him blocked for now as the Pirates have two of their best hitters in their corner outfield spots, in Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. Pittsburgh has listened to offers for both Nady and Bay but probably won't make a deal until after the season starts. This will give Pearce some time in the minors to adjust to his new position. If Pearce keeps hitting like he did last season look for the Pirates to move Nady well before the trade deadline to make room for him. When a spot is clear for him grab Pearce in your league as he has the potential to put up big time power numbers for your team.

(3) Ian Stewart-3B/2B Colorado Rockies: Ian Stewart has a number of things going for him; he has power he has speed and he possesses a prototypical arm for third base his natural position. Unfortunately for Stewart he has one major thing going against him; Garrett Atkins who has averaged over 20 home runs and 100 RBI's in his three years as a starter. With Atkins firmly entrenched at third, the Rockies are looking to move Stewart off the hot corner to get his bat in the lineup faster. Stewart who last year in AAA hit .304-15-65 with 11 steals in only 414 at bats, looks ready to make the jump to the NL champions but the question remains as to where he will play. Todd Helton looks to stay at first and the corner outfield spots are manned by Matt Holiday and Brad Hawpe, leaving second base as Stewart's only option. While there is an opening there Stewart doesn't figure to be a solid defensive second baseman, likely leaving the job to fellow rookie Jayson Nix. Stewart needs a trade to happen for him to become a fantasy sleeper. If he gets an everyday shot Stewart should hit around 25 home runs and add between 10-15 steals.

(4) Adam Miller-SP Cleveland Indians: Though Adam Miller struggled last season with injuries that limited him to just 11 minor league starts, in which Miller went 5-4 with a 4.82 ERA, he is the Indians top pitching prospect. Miller would probably be in the starting rotation on more than a dozen teams in the league. Due to the strength of the Indians staff, which features Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia and 19 game winner Fausto Carmona at the top of the rotation and over 21 million dollars of payroll due to Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd and Cliff Lee, Miller is on the outside looking in. Don't let last season's numbers deceive you, in 2006 Miller went 15-6 with a 2.75 ERA and 157 K's in 153 innings pitched, he is a front of the rotation starter and has a bright future ahead of him. As it stands now Miller figures to spend most of the season in AAA trying to show that he can stay healthy. Unless Lee is traded or more unlikely free agent to be Sabathia is moved, Miller's only chance at making an impact this season is as an injury replacement. Otherwise consider Miller a top sleeper for 2009 as he could take Sabathia's place in the rotation.

Hope everyone has a great week, I will you see you all next Monday!

Down on the Farm

Over the last few weeks on "Down on the Farm" we focused on position battles and players looking to make a fantasy and major league impact this season for their teams. While we tried covering everyone a few players slipped through the cracks. This week we will focus on a few players who look to breakout this season.

(1) Johnny Cueto-SP Cincinnati Reds: I knew at some point I would be writing on Johnny Cuento but I didn't think it would be until the second half of the season. No one went into this season questioning Cueto's talent just if he was ready for the big leagues, as he has only pitched a total of 83 innings above High-A ball. As Spring Training began it didn't look as though the Reds had any room for their talented 22 year old right hander. In the off season the team brought in Jeremy Affeldt, Josh Fogg and Edinson Volquez to compete with holdover Matt Belisle and stud rookie Homer Bailey to compete for the final three spots in the rotation. It seemed the Belisle and Bailey were going to take two of the spots leaving the other one up for grabs with Cueto being the long shot to get the job. Now after a great start to the spring and following up an impressive 2007 campaign, in which he went 12-9 with a 3.07 ERA and 170 K's in 161 innings, Cueto looks to firmly claim one of the rotations spots for himself. The Reds are looking to compete this year and there is no reason not to let their best arms into the rotation this season. Having Cueto and Bailey in the rotation all season will go a long way to making them a contender. If he makes it look for Cueto to get between 10-12 wins with a ERA in the 3.60-3.75 range with 150+ strikeouts. He should be a great late round sleeper pick for your fantasy team.

(2) J.R. Towles-C Houston Astros: Seeing J.R. Towles as the Astros number one catcher on their depth chart should make fantasy owners smile, as Brad Ausmus is no longer Houston's every day backstop, making that line up that much better. On top of just replacing Ausmus, Towles brings a lot of offensive potential to the Astros lineup, which should be among the leagues best. Last season in the minors Towles hit .287 (AVG)-11 (HR)-62 (RBI) in just 349 at bats. He also had a brief call up last season where he hit .375 in 40 at bats, showing the Astros enough to give him the starting job. Towles is not a huge power guy and 15+ home runs seem to be his range though he will add a few steals to go with that. Towles will hit the ball and bring in some good fantasy numbers, he should be a must have in NL leagues and a solid sleeper in mixed leagues.

(3) Luke Hochevar-SP Kansas City Royals: Hochevar became the top pick of the 2006 draft, after holding out from the Dodgers after they had drafted him in the supplemental first round in 2005. Since being picked first he hasn't done much to live up to his top prospect billing. In his only full year of minor league work, Hochevar posted an unimpressive 4-9 record to go along with a 4.86 ERA in 26 starts. These numbers seemed to make it unlikely Hochevar would have a role with the Royals in 2008, but the team is giving him a chance in Spring Training to earn a roster spot. So far that gamble is paying off as Hochevar has impressed early on in camp and is beginning to make his way up the Royals depth chart. If Hochevar can get it all together he could be a front of the rotation starter before the season is out. I think Hochevar will get at least one month in AAA but should be ready for the rotation after that. Look for 8-10 wins this year with a 140 K's. As of now Hochevar should only be considered in AL only leagues as a sleeper, but keep an eye on him in mixed leagues as the season progresses.

(4) Brandon Jones-OF Atlanta Braves: Brandon Jones has been a top prospect for the Braves the last couple of seasons but hadn't lived up to his potential, that all changed last season. When Jones tore through AA and AAA hitting a combined .295-19-100 with 17 stolen bases in 535 at bats and even earning a big league call up. Unfortunately Jones doesn't figure to duplicate those numbers this season as he will likely platoon in left field with Matt Diaz, severely limiting his at bats. Jones has the talent to be an every day player with 25 HR power and with a strong first half of the season could win the job full time for the second half of the year. Right now Jones should be a late round option in NL only leagues, but will become an option in all formats when he gets the full time nod in left.

Hope everyone has a good week and see you all next Monday!

Down on the Farm: In the Outfield

Even though we have looked at a few of the games' most promising outfield talents in recent "Down on the Farm" columns, that doesn't mean we are scraping the bottom of the barrel for this entry, as we focus on outfield position battles going on right now in Florida and Arizona.

(1) Jay Bruce-CF Cincinnati Reds: When the D-Backs Justin Upton had his 131 AB last season no longer qualifying him for prospect status, Jay Bruce became the consensus number one prospect in baseball. Bruce is battling veteran Ryan Freel and last year's surprise player Norris Hopper for the starting centerfield postion this spring. The real question for fantasy owners and Reds fans is not whether or not Bruce is the most talented of the trio, but whether or not manager Dusty Baker will entrust the job to a player who has never had a major league at bat. Though only 20 years old it doesn't seem like Bruce would need much more seasoning in the minors as between three levels last year he hit .319 (AVG)- 26 (HR)- 89 (RBI) with a .587 (SLG) in 521 AB's. Lack of experience is not the only thing holding Bruce back. Speed or lack there of is also a factor, as his two competitors could each be penciled into the leadoff spot in the lineup. Bruce on the other hand is a middle of the order hitter and that's not to say he couldn't hit at the top, just that he's never going to be a base stealer. The thing is that the Reds are looking to make a run at the Central this year and the best way to catch the Cubs and Brewers is to out hit them not out run them, and adding Bruce to their outfield is the best way to accomplish that. If Bruce makes the team out of Spring Training look for him to have an impact in a big way - .300-30-90 seem very reasonable in that lineup and in that ballpark, making Bruce a must have in all fantasy formats.

(2) Colby Rasmus-CF St. Louis Cardinals: Colby Rasmus recieved a big boost to his stock on December 14th when the Cardinals traded away incumbent centerfielder Jim Edmonds for a prospect. This opened the door for Rasmus, the Cards top prospect since they drafted him out of high school in 2005, to have first crack at the opening day centerfielder job. Now the Cards aren't going to just hand the position to Rasmus as he will have to battle fellow rookie Brian Barton for the job. Rasmus has only spent one full season at AA whereas Barton has spent two seasons there and part of one in AAA, leaving some to wonder if Rasmus would be ready for the jump to the big leagues. Last season Rasmus batted .275-29-72 with a .381 OBP, he also added 18 stolen bases in just 472 AB's. The biggest proponent of Rasmus making the team in Cardinals camp should be Albert Pujols as Rasmus gives the team a bonafide leadoff hitter who will often be on base. Hopefully the team will agree with that assessment otherwise it could be a long year in St. Louis. I think Rasmus will make the team and hit atop of that lineup, look for a .270-25-65 year with between 25-30 steals. Rasmus looks like a great late round sleeper in mixed league formats.

(3) Chase Headley-LF San Diego Padres: Left field is an open competition for the Padres this year, and Headley has the best bat of the bunch. The problem for Headley is his defense may keep him in the minors for another season, as he's making the transistion from third base to the outfield. His top competition for the job is Scott Hariston who is a very solid outfielder but shouldn't be a starter on a contending team. For the Padres to take the West this year they will need impact bats in the line up and Headley brings just that to the table. Last year in AA Headley hit .330-20-78 with an amazing .437 OPB in just 433 AB's. Headley has a great bat and has a bright future, unfortunantly I don't think we will see it just yet. My guess is Headley starts the year in AAA to learn the outfield better, and will be the Friars starting left fielder by the time May is done. In 2/3 of a season I see Headley hitting .300+ with 15 home runs and 65 RBI's. Don't jump the gun and draft Headley but if he does make the final cut or when he gets called up he can be a big asset to your team.

(4) Felix Pie-CF Chicago Cubs: This could be it, this could finally be the year that we see the real Felix Pie or at least that's what Cubs fans hope. After years of hearing him proclaimed as one of the best center fielder prospects in baseball, talk has cooled around him since his disappointing preformance last year with the Cubs when he hit .215-2-20 with 8 steals in 177 AB's. In AAA last year though Pie had one of his best seasons going .362-9-43 with 9 steals in 229 AB's. The team is hoping that it is that Felix Pie that shows up come opening day. While there is still some chance that Pie may be traded before opening day or the team will bring in another outfielder, as it stands now Pie's only competition is fellow rookie Sam Fuld. While good, Fuld doesn't have the kind of upside to be the starting center fielder for a team looking to win their first World Series in 100 years. It is important to remember that Pie is only 23 so we may still see all that potential yet. Regardless if he stays with the Cubs he will probably bat 8th in the line up limiting his RBI and run potential, even still Pie remains a top sleeper in mixed leagues and a must have in NL only. Look for a .275-15-70 year with between 20-25 steals.

Hope everyone has a great week and check back Wednesday when we will post our own Sportsjudge Mock Fantasy draft results!

Down on the Farm: Around the Infield

This week on "Down on the Farm" we are going to take a look at what infielders have a chance of cracking big league rosters this season.

(1) Evan Longoria-3B Tampa Bay Rays: With only one full season of minor league baseball under his belt Longoria looks to be ready to take over third base duties for the Rays. The former 1st round pick looks to be next in line in the crop of young talented third basemen we have seen enter the league in the last few years. Between AA and AAA last season Longoria batted .299 (AVG)-26 (HR)-95 (RBI) with a .402 (OBP) in only 485 AB's pretty good numbers for your first extended taste of professional baseball. The Rays who insist that they aren't handing the job to Longoria, moved their incumbent third baseman Akinori Iwamura to second this off season making the road for Longoria pretty clear. While there is a chance that the team may take a more cautious approach, similar to what the Brewers did last season with Ryan Braun, and start Longoria out in the minors. Don't let that fear temper your expectations for him too much, because even if starts in there, AAA won't hold him for too long. My guess is Longoria makes the team out of spring training, with the Rays finally showing promise it makes sense to put your best players on the field and stop worrying about the future. If Longoria is there all season I would say a .290-30-95 line would be very likely and with a good lineup around him those numbers could be even higher.

(2) Andy LaRoche-3B Los Angeles Dodgers: Two years ago many people in baseball thought that LaRoche was among the greatest third base prospects in the game and while no one is going to label him a bust his star has fallen somewhat. LaRoche has watched more heralded prospects like Braun and Alex Gordon pass him in the eyes of most baseball pundits. Last season LaRoche hit .226-1-10 in 93 AB's last season with the Dodgers, that followed a .309-18-48 campaign in AAA in only 265 AB's. LaRoche is battling Nomar Garciappara for the starting third base job in Spring Training, and while it won't be easy LaRoche should win the job and get the majority of AB's this season. Since LaRoche has struggled thus far in his major league career while other third basemen have flourished, he will be over looked come draft day. Use this to your advantage, while he probably won't be your starter in most leagues LaRoche could be a steal as a Utility or IF type player in your league. LaRoche should flirt with batting .300 as a rookie and I think he will give you solid power number in the 20-25 HR range

(3) Daric Barton-1B Oakland Athletics: A's fans have been awaiting Barton's arrival in Oakland since the team acquired him in the 2004 trade with the Cardinals for Mark Mulder, and given his success in his September call up it seems as though Barton is here to stay. While this is a bit of a stretch to say Barton is in a position battle as the A's don't have much legitimate competition for him in camp, Barton must continue to produce to keep the starting job. Last season in his call up Barton hit .347-4-8 in only 72 AB's, this followed a minor league year where he hit .293-9-70 in 516 AB's. Barton's biggest value is his batting eye as he walked more times then he struck out (78-69) in the minors. The negative for Barton is contrary to his call up numbers Barton is not likely a 30+ HR first baseman. So while a fantasy owner needs realize his limitations, don't write off Barton to be Sean Casey just yet. So consider Barton to be a solid Utility option on your team that will help in Average, Runs, and RBI.

(4) Brandon Wood- SS/3B Los Angeles Angels: Wood like LaRoche was on top of the prospect world back in 2006 but now has slipped under the radar somewhat. Wood who last season moved over to third base, is being asked this season to switch back to shortstop as the Angels traded Orlando Cabrera in the off season and have an open position battle under way. Wood will have to battle Maicer Izturis and Erick Aybar for the starting job, Izturis is the most known commodity of the three but doesn't have the offensive potential of Aybar or Wood. Between Aybar and Wood, Aybar is probably the better defender and has good speed with the ability to steal 35-40 bases, he lacks the one thing that Wood has that the Angels desperately need; power. In 2005 Wood hit .321-43-115 in 536 AB's in High-A ball, since then Wood has hit .276-25-83 in 2006 and .272-23-77 last year in the minors. During his time with the Angels last season he struggled hitting just .152-1-3 in 33 AB's. Don't let the decrease or his small sample of big league numbers scare you, Wood is a middle of the lineup hitter who can hit 30 HR's and steal around 15 bases a year. Though Wood might not win the starting job in camp the Angels will need his bat in their lineup if they are to compete with the Indians, Tigers and Red Sox. I think Wood is starting by May and keeps that job for the next 10 years, you could do a lot worse then a shortstop who hits .280-25-90 for your fantasy team.

Next week we will take a look at some outfielders looking to win a starting role. Have a great week.

Down on the Farm

We are going to be focusing the next few weeks of "Down on the Farm" on the Spring Training position battles that will be taking place in Florida and Arizona in the coming month. We are going to focus this week on Starting Pitchers who look to be in their clubs rotation come opening day. While we've already done write-ups on a number of pitchers we are going to focus on new pitchers this week and recap on others before the season starts. As always though Iwould be happy to answer any questions you might have about recent delevopments surrounding some young pitchers in the comments section, so feel free to ask away.

1. Homer Bailey-SP Cincinnati Reds: Great Expectations always seem to follow Bailey as he has been the Reds top pitching prospect since being drafted in 2004, and this could finally be the year that he not only meets them but exceeds them. During Spring Training last year the debate raged on about who was the better young pitching prospect Phil Hughes or Homer Bailey. While Hughes with a brief impressive stint in the bigs last year locked himself in to the #3 slot in the Yankees rotation, Bailey looks to fight for a spot this year after he struggled during his time in the majors in 2007. Bailey, who will turn 22 during the year, went 4-2 with a 5.76 ERA in 45 innings last season for the Reds and will probably be an after thought to many fantasy owners this season. Look for Bailey to improve drastically in his second taste of the majors and to break camp in the rotation. Bailey could have a big year with a powerful Reds offense and a much improved bullpen, if he's in the rotation all season 14+ wins is very realistic and he has the ability to be a big time strikeout pitcher probably averaging a little over a K an inning. Though walks will be Bailey's weakness early on he has the potential to join Aaron Harang at the top of the Reds rotation by seasons end.

2. Jair Jurrjens-SP Atlanta Braves: Jurrjens differs from from the previous two pitchers on this list in the fact that he is not as widely known as a prospect. That began to change this offseason as Jurrjens was traded from the Tigers to the Braves for Edgar Renteria and looks to join the Braves rotation this season in their playoff run. Jurrjens, who is 22, won't be handed the 4th or 5th starter job behind the Smoltz/Hudson/Glavine trio but should be the favorite to win a slot going into camp. His main competition for the spots are Chuck James who is rehabbing from a shoulder surgery and Mike Hampton who hasn't pitched since 2005. This should leave Jurrjens in the fast lane to break camp in the rotation after he went 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA and 13 K's in 30 innings for the Tigers last year. That followed up his AA performance of 7-5 with a 3.20 ERA and 94 K's in 112 innings. Jurrjens might not be a fantasy stud right off the bat but he has a very bright future. 10-12 wins should be expected and he has the stuff to be a good strikeout pitcher while maintaining a solid ERA. Pick Jurrjens in NL leagues and watch the waiver wire on him in mixed leagues as he could be a great pick up if one of your starters falters.

3. Ian Kennedy- SP New York Yankees: Kennedy like every young Yankee pitcher had his name attached to just about every trade rumor out there this offseason but as Spring Training starts Kennedy is still a Yankee and has an inside shot at a rotation spot for the New York Yankees just a year and a half after being drafted by them. Kennedy started last season in High-A ball and ended the year pitching for the Yankees during their playoff drive. In between Kennedy had an incredible season that too often gets overlooked, as he went 12-3 with a 1.91 ERA and 163 K's in 146.1 minor league innings. He then kept that success going in his September call-up going 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 15 K's over 19 innings. While his prospects for joining the 2008 rotation are up in the air, I would say its Kennedy's job to lose. Fellow rookie Joba Chamberlain looks to start the year in the bullpen to limit his innings and while its conceviable that Joba takes Kennedy's job when he's ready to join the rotation, its just as likely that Mussina or Pettitte are injured or ineffective keeping Kennedy firmly in the rotation. Kennedy does have some negatives going for him as he is not likely a major strikeout pitcher and won't be topping your team in that category. Also the Yankees will likely limit his innings to no more than 170 innings meaning he may lose some wins to middle relief. That being said Kennedy in the rotation is a must have in AL leagues and should still have 12+ wins and a very good ERA and WHIP for mixed leagues.

4. Gio Gonzalez-SP Oakland Athletics: Gonzalez who was the headliner of the return package in the Nick Swisher deal has a bright future with the Athletics, the question for Oakland fans and maybe a few fantasy owners is when will that future be? There are no sure things in the Oakland rotation outside of Joe Blanton (and he might be traded before the season is over), giving Gonzalez ample shot to win a rotation spot for the rebuilding Athletics. His chances aren't great as he is only 22 years old and has never pitched a game above double-A, but if Gonzalez proves himself this spring he should open up in the rotation. Gonzalez went 9-7 with a 3.18 ERA and 185 K's in just 150 innings last year for the Birmingham Barons and looks poised to take the next step to the big leagues. If Gonzalez makes the rotation he will have some positives going for him as he will pitch his home games in a pitchers park and still has a quality bullpen behind him. It will be important to remember that Oakland will be rebuilding and wins will not always be easy to come by and his minor league strikeout numbers could be a bit decieving as he probably won't fare as well versus major league hitters. Gonzalez does have plenty of potential so keep an eye on him but don't overdraft him as it could be a long year in Oakland

5. Jeff Niemann-SP Tampa Bay Rays: Niemann who was drafted 4th overall in the 2004 draft, ahead of Homer Bailey, Phil Hughes and Jered Weaver, looks to finally be ready to show the Rays what made him such a highly touted college pitcher. Niemann who missed time in both 2005 and 2006 with injuries finally was able to stay healthy last year and showed his talent going, 12-6 with a 3.98 ERA adding 123 K's in 131 innings of work. Niemann is far from being a lock to join the rotation out of Spring Training as the Rays have been stockpiling promising young arms for years now. That being said don't count Niemann out of the mix just yet he has the talent to be there and if he stays healthy he should be in the rotation by the all-star break if not opening day. The Rays pitching staff should no longer be thought of as Scott Kazmir and no one else. In addition to James Shields and Matt Garza, the Rays overall have improved and should add value to anyone in their rotation. Niemann could be a breakout canidate this year and regardless of the injury risk take a long look at him if he makes the rotation out of camp.

I hope everyone has a great week and come back next week when we will take a look at what infielders look to win a starting job this season.

Down on the Farm

With Fantasy drafts coming up and the regular season right behind we are going to start focusing the "Down on the Farm" column in the coming weeks on Spring Training position battles and what rookies look to break camps with respective clubs. Before we get into that focus though this week we are going to take a look at players who can be a sophmore surprise. Players who played enough last year to eliminate their rookie eligibility, but who might not yet be a household name. We're not going to look at the Ryan Braun's and Hunter Pence's because we know that they are already on everyone's draft board. Instead we are going to look at a few players you may have missed last season, but should know as you head into your draft.

1. Billy Butler- DH/1B Kansas City Royals: No one denies that Billy Butler can hit as thats all he's done at every level since being a 1st round pick in 2004. Butler represents the rare case where his glove holds him back as it keeps him from becoming an everyday player for the Royals and fantasy teams. Butler could very well be destined to become a Utility only player with no other positional eligibility, on the other hand he is still only 22 years old and first base is still a very viable option for him. Regardless of where he plays Butler will be a middle of the order bat on an up and coming team for the forseeable future. Last year in two different stints with the Royals, he hit .292 (AVG)-8 (HR)-52 (RBI) in 329 AB's while adding .291-13-46 in 203 AB's in AAA. This year I would expect big things out of Butler with him moving his average up in to the low .300's with 25-30 HR's and 100 RBI's. He won't bring speed to the table but will still help in a number of offensive categories. Just remember to not let his lack of a position or the fact that he plays for the Royals to affect his draft status.


2. Justin Upton-OF Arizona Diamondbacks: Its a bit scary when the older Upton brother BJ hits .300-24-82 and steals 22 bases all in the span of 424 at bats, and Justin is considered the better baseball player. Now before we go any further this is not to say you should draft Justin before BJ on draft day as the latter is four years older and should be among the fantasy elite this year. But what I am trying to say is that Justin should be on his older brothers heels this year and maybe ready to pass him up next year as the first Upton off the draft board. Justin in just 140 AB's hit .221-2-11 with 2 SB's this followed up hitting .319-18-70 with 19 SB's in 385 minor league at bats. While Justin didn't exactly take the league by storm I doubt that there is one manager in baseball that wouldn't want to pencil his name into the lineup 162 days this season. The D-backs look ready to do that this year and barring some weird fluke you should be ready to have him in your fantasy roster as well. Justin's average this year might not match his talent level but he will give you legit power and speed, 40 HR's is a real possiblity with at least 25 SB's. Look for big numbers from both of the Upton brothers this year and look for Justin to be the steal of your draft.


3. Lastings Milledge-OF Washington Nationals: While Milledge has played in roughly a third of the Mets games in each of the last two seasons he has never gotten the chance to be an everyday player until now. With his trade to the Washington Nationals this winter Milledge will finally have the opportunity that has eluded him thus far to reach his true potential. While he will have some competition for the job Milledge should end up as the Nats new centerfielder come opening day in brand new National Park. Milledge won't ever hit 40 homeruns but the move to National Park away from Shea should put Milledge in the 25 HR range, with the potential to add somewhere around 20 steals as well. Milledge is only 23 years old and has a bright future ahead of him and should be a very solid addition to the Nationals lineup.


4. Phillip Hughes-SP New York Yankees: Phil Hughes may very well be the best known player on this list as he has had top prospect status since the day New York drafted him and was considered the centerpiece in the Yankees-Twins trade talks this winter involving Johan Santana. While the Yankees didn't end up with Santana they still might have an ace in Hughes. Hughes has dominated the Minors at every level he has pitched going 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA and 42 K's in just 37.2 innings last year before his callup. In the majors Hughes went 5-3 with a 4.48 ERA and 58 K's in 72.2 innings pitched. While those numbers aren't as dominant as some other young pitchers we've seen of late, Hughes has all the makings of a top flight pitcher. He won't turn 22 until the end of June, yet is one of the safer bets among young pitchers to make 30+ starts this year. Also Hughes is pretty much guaranteed to be the Yankees 3rd starter and with that run support behind him anything less than 15 wins should be unacceptable. I would look for Hughes to top that being around 17 wins with 180+ strikeouts and an ERA hovering just around 4.00. As August turns to September look for Hughes to be the Yankees most valuable fantasy pitcher and a member of your rotation as your playoffs begin.


5. Yovanni Gallardo-SP Milwaukee Brewers: The Milwaukee Brewers look to expand on last year's playoff run that had them in the mix until the last week of the season by taking the NL Central this season. For them to take that next step a lot of it will rely on Yovanni Gallardo's right arm. While some might declare that hyperbole and that the Brewers success will be determined by their hitting. I would say that they need an ace to match up with their big bashers and that Gallardo is that man. Gallardo who was called up in late June after going 8-3 with at 2.90 ERA and 110K's in just 77.2 innings could be one of the majors best kept secrets that will become known on Opening Day. He followed up his Minor League performance by going 9-5 with a 3.67 ERA and 101 K's in 110.1 innings, all of this at the age of 21. I think Gallardo is going to continue his success and I don't think its crazy for him to come close to 20 wins and 200 strikeouts this season. Gallardo is not a sleeper but a true fantasy stud, don't pass up the opportunity to add this ace to your rotation.

In all cases these players are must have's in AL/NL only leagues and auctions leagues, as they can cheaply round out your roster. These players all have value and potential in regular mixed leagues as well so make sure they are on your Draft Board. Have a great week everyone and see you next Monday.

Down on the Farm

Well I hope everyone enjoyed the Super Bowl as much as I did. As well as being a great game, I've never had any great love for the Pats and I wasn't looking forward to them being considered the greatest team of alltime. Also with the Super Bowl being over it means that football is officially done and our focus now turns to baseball. With pitchers and catchers due to report in about a week and Opening day less than two months away baseball is starting to heat up. In this past week we've finally seen the answer to the question thats been asked all off season, "Where would Johan Santana end up?"With that deal completed and the Erik Bedard trade about to be finalized, it looks as though the "Hot Stove" is about to have a serious cooling off period (until July that is). While all of us in the fantasy world realize the potential impact of Santana and Haren moving to the NL, Bedard pitching half his games at Safeco and Miguel Cabrera hitting in the middle of the potent Tigers line-up, this installment isn't going to be about what it does for their numbers, but a look into the other side of the deals. This article is going to focus on the prospects that came back in these blockbuster moves, and which of these players might be the next stars for their respective teams. We will take a look at these deals in the order that they happened, this list is not an anylasis of every deal just those players with the chance to make the biggest impact in 2008:

1. Michael Bourn-CF Houston Astros (Brad Lidge trade): One of the first deals from the offseason might well produce one of the best fantasy sleepers in 2008 in Michael Bourn. Bourn who spent all last season up with the Phillies only got 119 at bats in backup and pinch hit duty, now moves on to the Astros where he has practically been given the center field job and the lead-off role. While no one is going to mistake Michael Bourn for Beltran, he should do a very good job at making Astro fans forget Willy Taveras. In limited time last year Bourn hit .277 and went 18 of 19 in stolen base attempts. Now with the every day oppurtunity Bourn could very well lead the league in stolen bases, and with Kaz Matsui, Miguel Tejada and Lance Berkman hitting behind him he should be a lock for 100+ runs as well. While he won't hit for power or drive in that many runs don't hesitate to take Bourn late to be your fantasy teams answer to Crawford and Reyes.



2. Cameron Maybin-CF and Andrew Miller -SP (Cabrera/Willis trade): The blockbuster trade of the winter that made the Tigers the favorite in the AL Central, did not come without a steep price. That price came in the form of Detroit's 1st round draft picks from 2005 and 2006, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. Maybin debuted in a September callup for the Tigers last season with some struggles hitting just .143 with 1 HR and 5 SB in 49 at bats. Don't let his numbers from last year make you forget about Maybin come draft day, he is the real deal and has the potential to put up Carl Crawford numbers as unlike Bourn he has some power to go with his speed. Be aware though that Maybin will only be 21 as the season starts and was playing high school ball just three springs ago so don't expect great things from day one. While due to his youth Maybin is not a lock to make the team out of ST, if he does though he will play everyday and likely hit at the top of the order. Andrew Miller was the other big piece of the trade for the Marlins as they got the Tigers top pick in 06. Miller is a left-hander with top of the rotation talent that was rushed to the big leagues last year to try and save the Tigers and keep them in contention. He struggled in his stint in Detroit going 5-5 with a 5.63 ERA and 56 K's in 64 innings pitched. Though wins may be harder to come by in Flordia then in Detroit, Miller should still be able to put up numbers worthy enough to fill out your rotation. I would expect 12-15 wins with an ERA just north of 4, and some where around a strikeout per inning.



3. Carlos Gonzales-OF (Dan Haren trade): While most people look at this deal and think how it was a great deal for the Diamondbacks as they added another frontline pitcher, what they fail to realize is that the big winner in this trade might be Carlos Gonzales. Gonzales, only 22, didn't have a place to play in Arizonia plain and simple, he was blocked by Brynes, Upton and Young. In Oakland on the other hand Gonzales should have every oppurtunity to make it to the big leagues as Travis Buck is the only thing close to a sure thing in the Athletics outfield. Look for Gonzales to claim one of the other two spots and to stay there for quite some time. Gonzales hit .288 with 17 homers and 86 RBI's to go along with 10 steals in only 500 minor league at bats. Gonzales should hit for 25-30 HR's a year with15+ steals and should get his fair share of runs and RBI's as well.



4. Carlos Gomez-CF (Johan Santana trade): While the talk around baseball and most newspapers is that the Mets 'stole' Santana away from the Twins, trust me when I say they gave up more than a couple of Shea hotdogs and a bucket of balls to get their Ace pitcher. Carlos Gomez is the best of the deal from the Twins perspective as he is a legit ML center fielder who should be stepping in to Torii Hunters shoes come Opening day. Gomez in limited time with the Mets last year hit .232-2-12 adding 12 steals in 125 at bats. While Gomez has some power and could be a 20 homer guy, speed is his best asset. Gomez could very well be faster than former teammate Jose Reyes and when he reaches the top of the Twins order he becomes a fantasy play as 60-70 steals would be very likely for him. Keep a close eye during Spring Training to see if Gomez makes the team.



5. Adam Jones-OF (Erik Bedard trade*): Now this trade isn't official yet but hopefully it will be within a day or two and barring some very unlikely turn of events if this deal goes down Adam Jones will be the centerpiece of the trade and the Orioles centerfielder come Opening Day. Though his major league numbers to date haven't been too impressive, batting .230 with three homeruns and 12 RBI's during September callups the last two seasons, Jones has dominated the Minors at every level and has shown a great combination of power and speed making him very likely to be a 30-30 player. Expect him to hit in the middle of the order in Baltimore, maybe even clean-up right behind Nick Markakis, and to be a solid run producer in their lineup as well as yours.

I wanted to add that from now on anyone with questions or comments please feel free to post them and and I will respond to them as best I can under the same post. Have a great week everyone and see you next Monday.

"Down on the Farm" with Steve Shoup

Welcome to the first edition of "Down on the Farm", an insight to all things Minor Leagues, and a look at what reinforcements are on their way to the Majors. We have all seen in recent years what finding the next Hanley Ramirez, Justin Verlander, or Ryan Braun can do for your fantasy team. Every Monday I will have a new post focusing on the next wave of top prospects that can hopefully give you an advantage come draft day.

Before we get to the post, I wanted to give you all a quick introduction about myself. My name is Steve Shoup and I’ve been a sports fanatic for as long as I can remember as well as a fantasy gamer for the last 10 years. When it comes to my approach with fantasy sports, I tend to focus heavily on looking for value in youth. While in the NFL and NBA we hear a lot about the Adrian Peterson’s and Kevin Durant’s, w rarely see that same focus on rookies in MLB. Just last year, Johnny Damon was considered a top 15 to top 20 fantasy outfielder while Astros outfielder Hunter Pence on the other hand wasn’t even drafted in most leagues. Yet, by the end of the season those owners who picked up Pence in May had the better centerfielder.

Every year as the baseball season ends we see rosters expand and teams take a look at what they might have for next season. A great example of this is Washington third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. In June 2005, Zimmerman was drafted by the Nationals in the first round and by September he was playing third base in RFK. In just 20 games, Zimmerman went 23-58 for a .397 average. That off-season the Nationals traded veteran Vinny Castilla essentially handing the job to a player with less than three months of minor league experience. Zimmerman responded by hitting .287, with 20 home runs and 110 RBI’s to become a middle of the lineup hitter for Washington and a viable third base option for fantasy owners. The first article of Down on the Farm is going to focus on those late season call-ups last year that look to repeat Zimmerman’s success.

Hitters:

1. Joey Votto (1B- Cincinnati Reds) While he doesn’t get the hype as his more heralded fellow Reds prospects, Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey, Votto is the safe bet to produce big in 2008. During his Sept. call-up last year Votto produced a .321-4-17 line in 84 AB, following up a Triple-A performance of .294-22-92. During the off season the Reds cleared out Jeff Conine and Jorge Cantu. And while they still have Scott Hatteberg, Votto looks to be Dusty Bakers primary first baseman. Though Votto might not put up Albert Pujols or Ryan Howard numbers, he should quickly establish himself at the top of the second tier of first basemen. He will also have two factors to help his transition to the big leagues: (1) he will be surrounded by a potent lineup and (2) he will play half his games in one of the best parks for LH power hitters, especially in April when the wind blows out.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury (CF- Boston Red Sox) Now Ellsbury is one of the most talked about prospects out there right now with his name being linked as possible trade bait for Johan Santana. No matter what jersey Ellisbury will be wearing come opening day, he should continue to remain on your fantasy radar. Ellsbury has hit everywhere he’s been, including hitting a combined .323 between AA and AAA, with 82 runs scored and 41 stolen bases. He then hit .353 with 9 steals and .394 on base percentage in September with the Sox, and adding .360, 2 SB and a .429 OBP during the playoffs. The bottom line is if your looking for power you won’t find it in Ellsbury, but he will give you a great batting average, a ton of runs scored and a good number of steals. If Ellsbury is batting lead-off for either of these two teams come April, then he should be in your starting lineup as well.
3. Geovany Soto (C- Chicago Cubs) Soto came out of nowhere last September, hitting .389-3-8 in just 54 AB. Those numbers came on the heels of his breakout minor league season where he hit .353-26-109 with a .424 OBP. The Cubs responded by not attempting to resign Jason Kendall or any other veteran catchers. Soto will further benefit from a potent Cubs lineup that will give him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. If Soto can produce anywhere near that as a rookie he will become a fantasy stud catcher.

Pitchers:

1. Franklin Morales (SP- Colorado Rockies) By the numbers alone Morales isn’t the most impressive pitching prospect when it comes to fantasy value, but in this case the numbers could be very deceiving. Morales went 5-4, with a 3.51 ERA and 93 K’s in 112 minor league innings between AA and AAA. He then went 3-2 with a 3.43 ERA, adding 26 K’s in 39 innings. His post-season wasn’t nearly as memorable as he gave up 11 runs in only 10 innings. Now by the numbers alone Morales shouldn’t be looked on much as a fantasy sleeper much less a fantasy stud. But the numbers don’t tell the whole story with Morales as he has a lot going for him as well. He just turned 22 in January and has thrown more than 150 innings in each of the last two seasons, making him a safer bet to still be going strong into August and September. Morales is known as one of the hardest throwers in the minors and left handed making him a good bet when it comes to strikeouts going forward. Though he will make a number of starts at Coors, which no fantasy owner likes to see in their pitcher, Morales has the talent and stuff to overcome that and the defense and offense around him to get him a number of wins.
2. Clay Buchholz (SP- Boston Red Sox) It’s hard not to like a guy who throws a no-hitter during his September call up, and Buchholz did just that no-hitting the Baltimore Orioles in just his second career major league start. Buchholz finished his year by going 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA and averaging a strikeout an inning with the Sox. That came on the heels of his minor league season where he went 8-5 with a 2.44 ERA with 171 K’s in 125 innings. Buchholz is poised to join Josh Beckett atop the Red Sox rotation, but it may not be as soon as opening day. While he has the talent to be in the rotation two things are working against him. One he has yet to throw more than 150 innings as a professional and a sore shoulder shut him down for the playoffs last year, making him unlikely to be effective come September. The second thing working against Buchholz is the numbers game, with Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling, and Lester all virtual locks for the Red Sox rotation. Keep a close eye on Clay in spring training to see if he can win that fifth spot and eventually have a chance to be a fantasy starter by years end.
3. Joba Chamberlain (SP- New York Yankees) Chamberlain experienced a meteoric rise in Yankees minor league system. One year and 88 innings of minor league was all it took to get him to the Yankees. Chamberlain came up in August to reinforce the bullpen, a role in which he took too extremely well posting a 2-0 record with one save, and a 0.38 ERA in 19 appearances. He also added a 34-6 strikeout to walk ratio in 24 innings allowing just one earned run. He then made two play off appearances but was not nearly effective giving up three runs in 3.2 innings. Chamberlain also dominated the minors in 2007, going 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA, with 135 K’s in 88 innings pitched. Chamberlain looks to return to a starting role for the Yankees when opening day rolls around. That being said Chamberlain has one major factor working against him and that’s his experience. He has yet to throw even 120 innings as either a pro or in college, and has battled some nagging injuries throughout his career. This makes Chamberlain a bit more of a risk than Buchholz for the ’08 season. Don’t let that stop you from taking a flier on Chamberlain as he could be this year’s Francisco Liriano.

Hope this gets you starting to think about the top sleepers for this year. Have a great week and I will see you all next week!