Who’s Hot and Who’s Not Around the Minor Leagues: Mariner’s Liddi Climbs the Farthest

Liddi posted a 1.005 OPS on his way to the California (CAL) League MVP

When the Mariners signed Liddi, for $55,000, as a 17yo, in the fall of 2005, he was one of four players signed from the inaugural Major League Baseball European academy in Tirrenia, Italy. Of that group, only he and the Cubs’ Alessandro Maestri remain. The odds for a player like Liddi have always been long. After posting back-to-back sub .700 OPS seasons in the Midwest (MWL) League, Liddi entered 2009 barely on the prospect radar screen. But the Mariners started Liddi out in the California (CAL) League, where he was one of the ten youngest regular position players in the League. Liddi responded better than anyone could have possibly dreamed of, hitting 23 home runs and posting a .345/.411/.594. Only 5 other players in the last 25 years have been named CAL MVP in their 20yo season: Reid Brignac, Brandon Wood, Josh Barfield, Rocco Baldelli and Roberto Alomar, so Liddi is in some pretty rare company. At 6’4”, 175 lbs, there is plenty of room for projection, and his glove is solid enough to play at the hot corner for the long-term. All that makes Liddi, currently, one of the Top 50 prospects in the game, and in a year that probably is more notable for the decliners, Liddi easily is this year’s fastest riser, topping our end of the year list. One key note about the list, to be considered, a player has to be expected to still have ‘prospect’ status at the beginning of the 2010 season.

Hot Hitters –

1) Alex Liddi, 3B, SEA – Much has been made about the difference between Liddi’s Home and Away splits (1.158 OPS vs. .849 OPS) this season, and the aid that he has received by playing half of his games in one of the most hitter friendly environs (High Desert) in the Minor Leagues. Just to put things in their proper perspective, if you ignored Liddi’s phenomenal Home stats (.382/.467/.691) and just judged him on the basis of his road numbers, Liddi would still have one of the top five age-adjusted performances in the CAL. Liddi not only led the League in Home Runs, Total Bases and AVG, but he finished second in SLG and third in OBP –playing as a 20yo for most of the season. We had Liddi at #398 entering the season, and I can promise you that was higher than anyone else (Baseball America didn’t even have Liddi as a Top 30 prospect in a relatively weak Mariner system). Now, if all goes according to plan, he should open 2010 as one of the youngest position players in the Southern (SOL) League, and make his Major League debut before turning 23yo. There is enough projection in his 6’4” frame to envision an eventual 30HR hitter, and if he can improve his patience at the plate, and cut down on his strikeout rate, he has the upside of an all-star thirdbaseman.

2) Tony Sanchez, C, PIT – Sanchez entered the 2009 college season, not even among the Top 100 prospects for the June draft. After a great season at Boston College that left him as the top draft-eligible catching prospect, the Pirates surprised everyone when they grabbed Sanchez with the #4 overall pick. Perhaps even more surprising were the numbers, .316/.415/.561, that he posted in the South Atlantic (SAL) League after signing. The Pirates clearly identified a need and made Sanchez the pick because of it. He has solid catch and throw skills and an advanced hitting ability, so he will certainly be fast tracked. Don’t be surprised to see Sanchez assume the full-time backstop duties in Pittsburgh before the 2010 season is out.

3) Lonnie Chisenhall, IF, CLE – If you flash back to the fall of 2006, Chisenhall had just spurned offers from the Pirates, who had drafted him in the 11th round, and entered a South Carolina program where he was being heralded as the best bat in a program that already included Justin Smoak, Reese Havens and James Darnell. Chisenhall made some poor non-baseball decisions and events didn’t turn out quite as planned and Chisenhall was forced to try to pick up the pieces at tiny Pitt C.C. The Indians surprised many in the baseball community when in June of 2008, they selected him with the 29th overall pick and signed him for $1,100,000. He debuted in the New York-Penn (NYP) League, where he produced solid, but not spectacular numbers. When the 2009 season began, Chisenhall had character questions, a relatively unknown offensive upside, and defensive questions—as it was assumed SS would not be his final position. He fell outside of most Top 100 prospect lists (we had him at #130), and he was somewhat obscured by a draft class that was extremely heavy in College bats. Assigned to the Carolina League, Chisenhall quickly made a name for himself, out producing some of the circuit’s bigger attractions like Pedro Alvarez and Mike Mosutakas. While a 99 AB Eastern (ESL) League stint didn’t go as well, as a 20yo, 2009 can only be viewed as a smashing success. We still don’t feel that Chisenhall’s bat will produce enough for him to stay at 3B, but there is plenty of reason to believe he can become one of the better offensive talents in the Major’s at 2B.

4) Chris Carter, 1B, OAK – Coming off of a 2008 season where Carter posted a .930 OPS in the CAL as a 21yo, Carter was considered by most to be a Top 100 prospect, so his 2009 performance isn’t a total surprise. Nonetheless, his Texas (TXL) League Performance (.337/.435/.576) was better than anyone would have expected. While his numbers in the Pacific Coast (PCL) League, since his promotion, haven’t been quite as impressive, his home park is one of the circuit’s toughest. Carter has a Top 50 bat, but is limited defensively to 1B. This means that he is going to have to demonstrate even more power to be successful. With the Athletics continuing to look at Brett Wallace as a 3Bmen, it appears as though Carter should have a great shot to be the everyday 1Bman in Oakland next season.

5) Derek Norris, C, WSN – Norris is a player that we had ranked higher (#96) than most coming into 2009, so it is difficult to rank his ‘rise’ any higher than this. That said, Norris has emerged as one of the top 3 catching prospects after posting a .286/.413/.513 in his first taste of full season ball. His offense remains ahead of his defense, but the gap has closed significantly—especially in his game calling ability. The Nationals are sending him to the Arizona Fall (AZFL) League to get additional work and are trying to balance his need for continued defensive improvement with an already advanced bat. They envision him as a potential 25HR backstop at some point in the future.

6) Desmond Jennings, OF, TBR – Jennings entered the season as a Top 100 prospect, primarily on the strength of his speed/glove. He finished the season as a Top 25 prospect, making the greatest leap with his bat as he posted a .318/.401/.487 between stops in the Southern (SOL) and International (INT) Leagues and is closing the season in spectacular fashion as he has posted a 1.103 OPS since the middle of August. While Ben Zobrist has played well this year, look for Jennings, in 2010, to team with BJ Upton and Carl Crawford to provide the Rays with one of the speediest OFs the game has seen in some time.


7) Jesus Montero, 1B, NYY – If one starts from the perspective that Montero is not a Catcher, and is more likely to end up at first base, and then proceeds from there, they can gain a true appreciation for how special his bat is. Montero entered the season as a Top 50 prospect, so it is difficult to gain that much, but after Montero finished the year with a .337/.389/.562 between stops in the Florida State (FSL) and Eastern (ESL) Leagues—all as a 19yo, we are witnessing a truly special offensive talent. Yes, Montero will get ‘dinged’ because he will eventually end up at 1B or DH, but he still has established himself as a Top 10 talent this season.

8) Alex Avila, C, DET – You have to remember that Avila was a 5th round pick in June of 2008, that many saw as somewhat of a ‘patronage’ pick by the Tigers. Yet after a little more than 500 Minor League At Bats, the Tigers promoted him to Detroit where he has posted a 1.039 OPS as a backup catcher. Despite his hot start, Avila still needs defensive work in the Minors and you should expect to see him start 2010 in AAA. But he will be back as at least a Big League role player at some point during the season, and that is relatively remarkable considering he was only the 163rd player selected, a little more than a year ago.

9) Dominic Brown, OF, PHI – It’s difficult for us to put Brown here, because he was a Top 50 prospect entering the year, and we still question how much Brown will actually hit in the Major Leagues. Nonetheless, the consensus is that, after posting a .299/.377/.504 between stops in the FSL and ESL, Brown is one of the top 20 prospect talents in the game, and his value certainly is on the upswing. We still feel that Brown is one of those ‘toolsy’, athletic, types that the Phillies draft and that scouts drool over, and while he should have a solid Major League career, he will have difficulty matching the ‘hype’.

10) Jaff Decker, OF, SDP – After posting fantastic numbers, after signing, in the Arizona (AZL) League last summer, and being named League MVP, the scouting community began to overlook his ‘bad’ body and lack of projection somewhat--this despite entering the 2008 draft as arguably the most polished prep hitter available. After Decker torched Midwest (MWL) League pitchers to the tune of .299/.442/.514 this season, the scouts are talking a lot less about his height and weight and focusing more on that sweet swing. Decker is going to have his detractors as he hits every step on the ladder, but few are denying that he is a Top 100 prospect any longer.

Hot Pitchers –

1) Casey Kelly, RHP, BOS – You have to remember that Kelly started the year wanting to remain a SS, with an agreement in place with the Red Sox that was going to allow him to pitch half of the year and play SS half of the year. Also remember that, after signing last summer, in 2008, Kelly posted a .586 OPS in 130 ABs. Fast forward to July, and 19yo Kelly had just finished up 95 innings between the SAL and FSL were he posted a 2.08 ERA, a 0.853 WHIP, with a 74:16 K:BB ratio. Suddenly a star is born. Hopefully Kelly’s .642 OPS will convince him that his future is on the mound, because the rest of us are already convinced. He’s a Top 50 prospect as a pitcher and not even on the radar screen with the bat.

2) Kyle Drabek, RHP, PHI – Drabek showed enough in 2008 to demonstrate that he was recovered from Tommy John surgery and that 2009 could be his breakout year. Still he entered the season just in or just out of the Top 100. By the time July rolled around and the Phillies went looking for a #1 starter, Drabek had become untouchable—even in a deal for Roy Halladay. What transpired in between there was a 3.19 ERA, a 1.209 WHIP, with a 150:50 K:BB ratio, as a 21yo, between stints in the FSL and ESL. While we still have questions as to whether he will be a front of the rotation or merely a mid-rotation guy, Drabek has clearly established himself as an elite pitching prospect.

3) Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TBR – When David Price hit the Majors, there was quite a battle in the Rays system for the title of best pitching prospect. We had been high on Hellickson since his 2006 performance in the New York-Penn (NYP) League, ranking him #34 in the preseason this year, but the consensus was that Hellickson entered 2009 outside the Top 100. There is no longer any question as to whether or not Hellickson is in the Top 100, nor is there any question as to who is the Rays top pitching prospect, after the 22yo posted a 2.45 ERA, a 0.886 WHIP, with a 132:29 K:BB ratio through stops in the SOL and INT. He is closing the season throwing his best ball of the year, and gave the Rays plenty of comfort, allowing them to deal Scott Kazmir. Look for him to compete for a rotation spot this spring in Tampa.

4) Dan Hudson, RHP, CHA - Hudson has to be the most remarkable story of the year, as he was drafted in the 5th round in 2008, following a disappointing junior season at Old Dominion. He started 2009 at Kannapolis in the SAL. After 4 starts there he was promoted to Winston-Salem in the Carolina (CAR) League, where he made 8 starts before being promoted to Birmingham in the SOL. In Birmingham he threw perhaps his best ball of the year, going 1.60 ERA, 0.834 WHIP, with a 63:10 K:BB ratio in 9 starts. The White Sox moved him to the INT at the beginning of August, before calling him up to the Big League club last week. All told, the 22yo has appeared in 28 games, between 5 different levels this year. We had him ranked #640 going into the year and Baseball America had him even worse, as the White Sox #24 prospect. The only reason that he isn’t even higher, is that, like most White Sox pitching prospects, his upside just isn’t that high. Nonetheless, he should compete for a rotation spot in Chicago in 2010.

5) Mike Montgomery, LHP, KCR – While Montgomery entered 2009 outside of most Top 100 lists, his breakout performance this year hasn’t been totally unexpected, as he was a supplemental 1st round pick in 2008, and did have arguably the best performance by a pitcher in the AZL in his debut. Coming off of a 2009 where he has posted a 2.21 ERA, a 1.055 WHIP, with a 98:36 K:BB ratio, between stops in the MWL and CAR—as a 19yo, he has clearly established himself as a Top 50 prospect. He’s extremely polished, complete with plus secondary offerings, and has the potential to pitch near the front of the Royal rotation for a long time.

6) Martin Perez, LHP, TEX – There is no name on this list with more upside than Perez, and the only reason that he ranks so far down on this list, is that he started the season as a consensus Top 100 prospect. To truly appreciate the performance of Perez in 2009, you first have to understand that he turned 18yo the first week of the season. That didn’t stop the Rangers from opening the year with him in the SAL, where he posted a 2.31 ERA, a 1.220 WHIP, with 105 strikeouts in 95 IP. Then things got interesting in August, when the Rangers decided to skip him over Hi-A, avoiding the CAL, and sent him to Frisco in the TXL—as an 18yo, two full years younger than the next youngest pitcher in the league. To put this in historical perspective, the last time a pitcher younger than 20yo collected more than 20IP in the Texas league was in 2004, when 18yo Felix Hernandez did it. While Perez’s TXL numbers suffered (5.51 ERA) he did close out the season by posting a 2.51 ERA, and a 1.186 WHIP over his last three starts. Perez will likely go into 2010 as one of the Top 3 pitching prospects in the Minors.

7) Casey Crosby, LHP, DET – Crosby entered 2009 clearly outside the Top 100 after throwing a total of 5IP since the Tigers selected him in the 5th round of the 2007 draft, due to elbow reconstruction surgery. That didn’t stop him from putting together arguably the best pitching performance in the MWL, where he posted a 2.41 ERA, a 1.127 WHIP, and fanned 117 batters in 104 IP. Still only 20yo, Crosby looks to team with Jacob Turner next season to give the Tigers one of the best pitching duos in the Minors.

8) Chris Withrow, RHP, LAD – Never underestimate the Dodgers ability to find and develop pitching talent. After the Dodgers selected Withrow in the first round of the 2007 draft, he was limited to just 13 innings since signing, as the Dodgers were very cautious with a nagging elbow problem. He did throw well in the instructional league, last off-season, flashing a fastball that moved into the upper 90s; so it isn’t a tremendous shock to see his breakout 2009 season. Between stints in the hitting friendly CAL and the SOL, the 20yo Withrow posted a 4.51 ERA, and fanned 131 in 113 IP. While he still struggles with his command at times, Withrow has some of the best pure ‘stuff’ in the Minors. Expect him to return to the SOL in 2010 and compete for a Dodger rotation spot in 2011.

9) Travis Wood, LHP, CIN – Wood has to be the comeback story of the year, as the 22yo, former second round pick, was pretty much written off after finishing 2008 with a 7.08 ERA in 80 SOL IP. Wood has never had a dominant out pitch, and now he was having control issues, walking nearly as many batters as he fanned. Wood worked hard during the off season, adding a cut fastball and a two-seamer, giving him five pitches that he felt he could throw for strikes. He cut his walks from 5.0 per 9IP in 2008, to 2.8 per 9IP this year. This all resulted in Wood posting a 1.77 ERA, 1.038 ERA, with a 135:53 K:BB ratio, between stints in the SOL and INT. While it may not be enough to earn Wood a spot in the Top 100 (it will be close), it certainly is enough to once again make him look like a back of the rotation Major League starter.

10) Matt Moore, LHP, TBR – The Rays drafted Moore in the 8th round in 2007, and it is likely this reason, moreso than any other, why he doesn’t likely get the credit he deserves. Clearly outside of the Top 100 entering the year, despite leading the Minor League starters in K/9IP in 2008, Moore showed that he was for real in his 2009 full-season debut, posting a 3.15 ERA, a 1.268 WHIP, and fanning 176 in 123IP. While Moore is far from a finished product (walking nearly 5 batters per 9IP), his raw ‘stuff’ ranks with almost anyone in the Minors. Look for him to easily be a Top 100 prospect this time around.

The Nots –

1) Kyle Skipworth, C, FLA – To gain full appreciation for how bad Skipworth’s prospect status is, one has to remember that when the Marlins made him the 6th overall pick in 2008, he was regarded as an offensive catcher with questions surrounding his defense. Now, in 423 professional ABs, Skipworth has posted a .608 OPS—and offense is his strength? At 19yo, you can’t completely write him off, but I certainly wouldn’t want to be the person that was responsible for signing him to that $2,400,000 bonus.

2) Greg Halman, OF, SEA - Halman entered 2009 as the Mariner’s best prospect and a tail-end Top 100 prospect, with an Andre Dawson like build and the reputation for swinging at anything not nailed down. In 2008 he homered once every 18 PAs and fanned every 3.7. In 2009, repeating the SOL, where he posted an .813 OPS the season before, his numbers dropped to a home run every 20 PAs, and his strikeout rate sky rocketed to once every 2.6—that’s a 38% strikeout rate! Never has there been a successful Major Leaguer that whiffed with such propensity and took as few walks as Halman does that experienced success. Even the poster boy for that, Wily Mo Pena, only whiffed 30% of the time—so don’t expect Halman to become the first. A future that, a year ago, looked to contain possibilities, looks like an extreme longshot now.

3) Andrew Brackman, RHP, NYY – The story of Andrew Brackman is likely to make you either laugh or to cry—depending on your affinity for the Yankee organization. The Yankees felt they got a steal when, after a velocity drop off late in the 2007 college season and signability concerns, allowed Brackman to fall to them at the end of the first round in the 2007 draft. They signed him to a guaranteed $4.55 million contract and, almost immediately, he underwent Tommy John surgery, not making his professional debut until the AZFL in 2008. The Yankees assigned the now 23yo to the SAL to open up the year, and, despite being older than most of his competitors, he has fallen flat on his face. In 29 SAL appearances, Brackman is 2-12, with a 5.99 ERA, a 1.716 WHIP and a 103:76 K:BB ratio. The good news for Yankee fans is that he has closed the season with a 10 inning scoreless streak, so there is hope that better things lie ahead, but at 24yo to begin the 2010 season, his star is fading fast.

4) Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, MIL - Regular readers will note my enthusiasm for Jeffress bashing, as he and his 100mph fastball have certainly gotten more than their share of 15 minutes of fame. The Minor League’s version of the fictional Nuke LaLoosh, was coming off his best season as a professional, in 2008, when he entered the year as a consensus Top 100 prospect. But the more things change, the more they remain the same, and thru 27 SOL innings, the 21yo had walked 33 batters. So the Brewers tried to take some of the pressure off, returning him to the FSL, where he had experienced previous success. This seemed to help, as in 33 FSL innings, he walked ‘only’ 22. But then Jeffress tested positive for substance abuse—his second offense, and is now in the midst of serving a 100 game suspension. The real lesson with jeffress has always been that just because you can throw, doesn’t mean you can pitch, but at only 22yo to start next season, there is still ample time to turn things around for Jeffress…we just remain skeptical.

5) Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS – We had Anderson at #30 entering the season, considerably lower than most, and there were many that predicted that Anderson would emerge as the top overall prospect following the 2009 season. Repeating the ESL, where he had posted a .962 OPS in 132 ABs in 2008, Anderson never found his stride, eventually posting a .233/.328/.345 on the year. While those numbers spell bad on their own, his 9 HRs in 447 ABs is the extremely troubling number, as Anderson is limited to 1B, and now only has 27 HRs in nearly 900 ABs over the last two seasons. Anderson will begin 2010 as a 22yo, and still is likely to be a Top 100 prospect, with plenty of time to turn things around, but he can no longer be considered ‘can’t miss’, and there are now significant questions regarding his upside.

6) Mike Moustakas, ?, KCR – A 20yo posting a .712 OPS in the CAR, as Moustakas did this year, isn’t tremendously troubling, but his 16 HRs in nearly 500 ABs certainly is. We have never been as high on Moustakas as most, given his lack of a true defensive position, but he was drafted (#2 overall in 2007) with the belief that his bat would overwhelm any defensive limitations. Now, with two full professional seasons under his belt, the defensive picture isn’t any more clear, and questions are beginning to be raised about his ability to hit enough if he ends up on a corner. At only 20yo, it’s not time to hit the panic button, but don’t expect to find him anywhere near the Top 20, where he started this season at.

7) J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR – Fortunately for Arencibia, he plays catcher adequately on the defensive side to provide him plenty of opportunity. While he entered the year with the label of Toronto’s ‘Catcher of the Future’, visions of being a middle-of-the-order, power hitting, backstop, and a Top 50 ranking by some sources (we had him at #186), the 23yo has struggled mightily at the plate, going .236/.284/.444 in one of the Minor League’s most hitter friendly parks. When you compare those numbers to a player like Pittsburgh’s former first round, former catcher, pick, Neil Walker(.264/.311/.480), who--oh by the way, is also 23yo,and is rarely mentioned as a prospect any more, and…well, you get the picture. We believe Arencibia’s defense should be enough to rate a Big League opportunity, but unless he makes significant changes to his plate approach—laying off the first pitch and reducing his strike out rate, we remain skeptical of his long-term chances.

8) Angel Villalona, 1B, SFG – Villalona was an 18yo for most of the season, playing at Hi-A, so one needs to be careful before judging him too harshly, but he entered the season neck and neck with 18yo, Jesus Montero, and the two have experienced completely different fates. Villalona has gone .267/.306/.397 in the CAL, but the most troublesome number is his 9 HRs in 292 ABs. Angel is a big-bodied boy, whose only defensive opportunity lies at 1B. In order to succeed at higher levels, he is going to have to develop more power than he has shown thus far. While there is plenty of opportunity before he turns into Joel Guzman, don’t expect to see the Top 50 tag attached to him next season.

9) Chris Valaika, SS, CIN – Valaika is a difficult inclusion on this list, because he was clearly not a Top 100 prospect entering the season (we had him at #366), but most expected the 2006, third round pick, to have settled in as the Reds starting SS by this point. Instead, in 366 AAA ABs, the 24yo posted a .235/.271/.344. Valakia has an excellent work ethic, and it is quite possible that he will make the necessary adjustments during the off-season and put 2009 behind him, but lacking any raw ‘skills’, he won’t get many chances and can’t afford another season like this past one.

10) Juan Duran, OF, CIN – It is extremely difficult to put an 18yo, making their US-debut on this list, but when you are 6’6, 190lbs, and sign for $2 million, the expectations are that you are going to post a tad more than the .487 posted by Duran this year. We continually caution about the inherent risks involved in signing 16yo Latin American players, and their poor track record, and we also understand that Duran could play two more years in short season ball before making his full season debut and all will be forgotten, but this isn’t what the Reds were hoping for when they signed him.

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Who’s Hot and Who’s Not Around the Minor Leagues: Buc’s Alvarez Hits the Reset Button

After a slow start, Alvarez has a 1.066 OPS since the end of June

After a well-publicized contract dispute, following the 2008 draft, Pedro Alvarez showed up at the Pirates Spring Training facility in Bradenton, FL --out of condition and overweight, leading to much speculation that the Pirates may have made another in a long line of ‘boneheaded’ first round selections when they tabbed him with the 2nd overall pick. Assigned to Lynchburg of the Carolina (CAR) League, Alvarez continued to look out of step, hitting .247 while striking out in 26% of his PAs. He did demonstrate some power skills (14 HRs in 243 ABs), to show Pirate management enough that they moved him up to AA Altoona in the Eastern (ESL) League, where he promptly struck out 40% of the time and was hitting .120 after his first full-week. But suddenly, things began to change. He had a new found patience at the plate, and once again looked like the hitter that entered the 2008 college season as the Nation’s best. Since the beginning of July, Alvarez has arguably been the best hitting prospect in all of the Minor Leagues, posting a .360/.452/.614. Most impressive in this, is that in August, his best month of his young professional career, Alvarez has not only posted a 1.136 OPS, but the 22yo, has cut his strikeout rate to a far more liveable 20%, and over the past two weeks, he has even walked more than he has struck out. For this performance, Alvarez tops this week’s list.

Hot Hitters –
1) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT – Alvarez’s eventual upside/value is nearly completely dependent on his defense. His bat will play at any position, but the question is whether he becomes a perennial all-star at 3B, or merely an above average Major League firstbasemen. While the scouts are extremely skeptical of his body-shape, his speed, and his footwork; we believe that there is at least an adequate 3Bmen in there and thus far his range/defensive stats grade him out at average in the Eastern League. The difference for Alvarez is that as a 3Bmen, he is likely one of the top 5 prospects in the Minors, whereas, if he is projected at first he falls to around #20. In either case, over the last two weeks he has posted a .314/.435/.608 and now has a .914 OPS on the year.

2) Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, NYM – It’s kind of like being the ‘tallest midget’, but Nieuwenhuis has quickly established himself as the best OF prospect in the Mets’ system after being selected in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft. After posting a 1.053 OPS at St. Lucie in August, the 22yo earned a promotion to Binghamton, where he has three hits and a walk in his first two games. Over the last two weeks, Nieuwenhuis has posted a .444/.500/.889, and has quickly established himself as one the brighter Met’s position prospects in a rather dark season.

3) Carlos Peguero, OF, SEA – Seven home runs and a .370/.442/.957 over the last two weeks, has rejuvenated his prospect status that had taken a bit of a hit this year. Peguero now has 28 home runs and an .883 OPS in the hitter-friendly environs of High Desert.

4) Andrew McCucthen, CF, PIT – When the Pirates dealt Nate McLouth earlier in the year, we wrote that it may be a case of ‘addition by subtraction’ as the move clearly stamped McCutchen as the Pirates everyday CF. The 22yo has responded brilliantly, with an .853 OPS through 200 MLB ABs, including a .308/.419/.615 and now looks like a future star.

5) Chih-Hsien Chiang, 2B, BOS – Limited defensively, and with a bat that has significant question marks, Chiang has been a ‘fringy’ prospect since the Red Sox signed him as a 17yo, after the 2005 season. Most of this season, the results have been much of the same—but not the last two weeks. The 21yo has posted a .407/.500/.778 and has his OPS once again hovering above the .700 mark. Chiang still has time to develop, but there is significant doubt that he will ever it enough to justify his defensive liabilities.

6) Eduardo Nunez, SS, NYY – After posting a .792 OPS as an 18yo in the NYP in 2005, the slick-fielding SS looked like the organization’s best bet to one-day replace Derek Jeter. But three straight sub-.700 OPS years has made that seem like a distant memory. Now 22yo and playing in the ESL, Nunez has suddenly rediscovered his bat, as he is hitting .323/.352/.436 on the year. Over the last two weeks he has really heated up, going ..468/.537/.702. If he could add some ‘beef’ to his 6’0” 155lb frame, he would be a ‘breakout’ candidate for 2010.

7) Kyeong Kang, OF, TBR – It is relatively easy to get lost in the depth that is the Rays’ Minor League system, but Kang was the best position player on his Hudson Valley team in 2008, after posting a .801 OPS. The 21yo has dialed the offense up a notch this season, and, after going .425/.521/.825 over the last two weeks, Kang has a .875 in the pitching friendly Midwest (MWL) League. We aren’t forecasting stardom for Kang, but continued progression could make him a solid 4th OF type at the Big League level.

8) Thomas Neal, OF, SFG – After returning from injuries and serving as Villalona’s ‘caddy’ in 2008, the 22yo Neal has had a breakout 2009. In 450 California (CAL) League ABs, Neal has posted a 1.003 OPS with 22 Home Runs. Over the last two weeks, Neal has gone .326/.453/.651 and is battling Roger Kieschnick for the title of Giants’ best OF prospect.

9) Eury Perez, OF, WSN – Signed as a 16yo prior to the start of the 2007 season, Perez spent two seasons in the Dominican Summer (DSL) League before making his stateside debut in the Gulf Coast (GCL) League this year. His 2008 performance rated as one of the top 5 in the DSL in 2008, and he has wasted little time in making a name for himself this year. A /435/.447/.717 over the last two weeks, leaves him with a .946 OPS on the year, and unlike many young Latin hitters. Perez has demonstrated significant ability to make contact.

10) Wil Myers, OF, KCR – We had Myers as a Top 25 talent, prior to this year’s draft, but he fell to the Royals in the third round—despite them giving serious consideration to taking him at #12. As we wrote back in June “…this is a good kid, that eats, drinks and sleeps baseball and has a stick that can flat out rake.” His .277/.352/.617 professional debut has done nothing to temper our enthusiasm, as he has a great makeup and a special bat. The only questions surrounding him are where he will end up defensively.

Hot Pitchers –
1) Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TBR – With David Price in the Majors, there is quite a battle in the Rays system for the title of best pitching prospect. We have been high on Hellickson since his 2006 performance in the New York-Penn (NYP) League, but for the last two months, Hellickson has been in another world and is putting separation between himself and the other contenders: Matt Moore, Wade Davis, Nick Barnese and Kyle Lobstein. Over his last three starts, Hellickson has posted a 1.80 ERA, a 0.600 WHIP, with a 32:5 K:BB ratio, giving the 22yo a 2.61 ERA on the year.

2) Michael Montgomery, LHP, KCR – While Hellickson is moving to the front of the pitching line in Tampa Bay, it’s Mike Montgomery that is taking charge in Kansas City. It’s no knock on guys like Duffy, Mellville, Gutierrez and Sample, but a lefty with the ‘stuff’ of Montgomery is tough to beat. Over his last three starts, the 20yo has gone 1.93 ERA, 0.750 WHIP with a 16:1 K:BB ratio, and now has a 2.25 ERA on the season.

3) Kyle Lobstein, LHP, TBR – More polished than most high school pitchers, the Rays tabbed the left-hander with their second round pick in the 2008 draft. He signed late (for $1.5 million), so he didn’t make his professional debut until the New York-Penn (NYP) League opened this summer. Through 13 starts he is everything that had been advertised, posting a 2.81 ERA. Over his last three starts, he has a 2.50 ERA, a 0.667 WHIP and a 27:3 K:BB ratio.

4) Adrian Salcedo, RHP, MIN – This week’s ‘Who’s He’ Award winner, Salcedo was signed by the Twins as a 16yo, following the 2007 season. He made his debut in the DSL in 2008, where he turned in the 3rd best age-adjusted pitching performance in the league. His trademark is an almost other-worldly control, as in 2 seasons he has walked but 11 batters in 123 IP, including a remarkable 58:3 K:BB ration in the GCL this year. Over the last two weeks he has posted a 0.71 ERA, 0.632 WHIP, with a 12:0 K:BB ratio, dropping his ERA to 1.46 on the season. At 6’4”, 175lbs, there is plenty of projection left in the 18yo.

5) Aaron, Miller, LHP, LAD – Despite flashing a fastball that could touch the mid-90s in high school, Miller had made just 6 mound appearances at Baylor in his first two seasons, as his passion was for hitting. He started 6 more games this season and posted only a 5.12 ERA in 53 innings, but showed enough for the Dodgers to not only draft him in the supplemental first round, but to sign him to a $900,000 bonus and convince him to put away the bat and concentrate on pitching. As is usually the case with the Dodgers and pitching prospects, it looks like the right decision, as Miller has a 2.45 ERA through 9 professional starts, including a 0.00 ERA, 0.441 WHIP with a 10:4 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

6) Tyson Ross, RHP, OAK – Ross is a big (6’5, 215lb) right-hander, that was drafted by the Athletics in the second round in 2008. He features a three-pitch repertoire that is headlined by a hard-breaking slider. Over the last two weeks, Ross has gone 0.00 ERA, 0.538 WHIP, with a 9:3 K:BB ratio and now has a 4.20 ERA through two of the toughest pitchers leagues (CAL and TXL). The 22yo has the upside of a back of the rotation innings eater.

7) Richard Castillo, RHP, STL – Lacking a dominant out-pitch and with little projection in his 5’11 frame, Castillo tends to not get the credit that has been warranted by his performance the last two seasons. In 2008, as an 18yo in the MWL, Castillo posted a 2.37 ERA while fanning more than 8 batters per 9IP. This year, as one of the Florida State League’s youngest hurlers, he has posted a 3.97 ERA. Over the last three starts, he has taken his game up another notch, posting a 0.90 ERA, a 0.750 WHIP, and a 16:3 K:BB ratio.

8) Simon Castro, RHP, SDP – Somewhat the antithesis of Castillo, the 21yo Castro throws a mid-90s fastball from a significant down-hill plane, generated from his 6’5, 200lb frame. He has dominated MWL hitters on the season (148 Ks in 138 IP) while posting a 3.48 ERA, drawing raves from MWL managers in the process. Over his last three starts, Castro has a 0.51 ERA, a 0.623 WHIP, with a 15:4 K:BB ratio.

9) Tyler Sample, RHP, KCR – At 6’7”, 245lbs, Sample is a huge 20yo that possesses a mid-90s fastball. The problem is that he is still a work in process when it comes to controlling both it and a newly learned knuckle-curve. Still, Sample has 3.13 ERA on the year and a 0.47 ERA, a 0.737 WHIP, and a 11:6 K:BB ratio over his last three starts.

10) Mike Minor, LHP, ATL - It was somewhat of a surprise when the Braves tabbed Minor with the 7th overall pick in June’s draft. Not that Minor wasn’t a first round talent, but it was a surprise that he became the first college pitcher, not named Strasburg, selected. Minor pitches off of his secondary stuff, lacking a dominant fastball, and appears to be far more polished than talented. Nonetheless, in his first three starts, Minor has a 1.00 ERA, a 0.556 WHIP, and a 8:0 K:BB ratio.

The Nots –
1) Joel Guzman, 3B, WSN – We write often about the inherent risks involved in signing 16yo Latin American talents to huge bonuses, and Guzman is the poster boy for this. Signed for a then record $2,250,000 in 2001, Guzman ascended up the prospect charts, peaking as a Top 10 talent after the 2005 season. But it has been downhill since then, and now with his third organization, the end of the line looks to be approaching for Guzman. Over the last two weeks, Guzman has gone .161/.212/.161 and has a .625 OPS in August.

2) Chris Volstad, RHP, FLA – Coming off a remarkable rookie season in 2008, Volstad was expected to head the Marlin rotation this season. But it has been a roller-coaster ride for the 22yo, former first round pick, which took another downward turn as he was sent to AAA following his last start. Over his the last two weeks, Volstad has a 15.88 ERA, a 2.824 WHIP and a 2:4 K:BB ratio.

3) Greg Burns, OF, FLA – After a solid 2007 season, Burns took a step backward in 2008, and is about to fall off the charts in 2009. A 3rd round pick in the 2004 draft, the 22yo has posted a .087/.143/.109 over the last two weeks and now has .681 OPS, an almost identical number to 2008, in a FSL repeat performance.

4) Cesar Valdez, RHP, ARZ – After a breakout 2008 season, big things were expected from the 24yo Valdez this year. But it hasn’t quite gone as planned, as Valdez has a 4.95 ERA on the year, and is showing no signs of being able to strike anyone out. Over his last three starts, Valdez has a 9.00 ERA, a 2.333 WHIP and a 2:4 K:BB ratio.

5) Michael Saunders, OF, SEA – Once Greg Halman struggled badly and Carlos Triunfel was lost for most of the season due to injury, Saunders became the de facto Mariners’ Top Prospect—a title that will certainly be passed on to Dustin Ackley now. After the 22yo, put together a great Pacific Coast (PCL) League campaign in the season’s first half, the Mariners promoted him to Seattle—where the wheels have fallen off. Saunders is clearly over matched (.505) and looks likely to return to AAA when the 2010 season rolls around. Over the last two weeks, Saunders has posted a .147/.194/.147.

6) Denny Almonte, OF, SEA – Almonte posted a .863 OPS in April, a .822 OPS in May, an .807 OPS in June, a .521 OPS in July, and a .264 OPS in August. This is not exactly the kind of improvement that one would hope for. Look for the 20yo to give the MWL one more try to start 2010.

7) Bud Norris, RHP, HOU – It is always a challenge to expect consistent performance from young Major League pitchers. After posting a 2.63 ERA in 19 PCL starts, the Astros, rightfully, gave Norris a shot at the big league rotation. 7 appearances later, Norris has a 6.61 ERA. Over his last three starts, Norris posted a 13.11 ERA, a 2.400 WHIP and a 8:8 K:BB ratio. Patience everyone.

8) Juan Duran, OF, CIN – Okay we have beaten this one to death…Signing 16yos out of Latin America is an extremely risky business. As a matter of fact, of the thirteen players that have ever been signed for $1 million or more, prior to 2007, only Miguel Cabrera and Wily Aybar have seen regular playing time at the Big League level (Angel Villalona and Fernando Martinez could still join that list). Duran signed for $2,000,000 in 2007, posted a .659 OPS in the Dominican Summer (DSL) League in 2008, and is struggling mightily in 2009. After posting a .185/.185/.222 over the last two weeks, Duran now has an abysmal .487 OPS in the Gulf Coast (GCL) League. Duran just turned 18yo, so there is still plenty of time, but there is also plenty of holes in his swing that need fixing.

9) Adys Portillo, RHP, SDP – With Michel Ynoa yet to make his professional debut, Portillo becomes the most expensive 16yo Latin American pitcher signed in 2008. Portillo will still be a 17yo when he finishes the season, so there isn’t a whole lot to read into his performance, and he has whiffed 44 batters in 52 Arizona (AZL) League batters, but with a 1-9 record and a 5.13 ERA, things haven’t been impressive. Over the last two weeks, Portillo has posted a 9.00 ERA, a 3.200 WHIP and a 2:8 K:BB ratio.

10) Greg Golson, OF, TEX – Another in a long line of highly athletic, toolsy, players drafted by the Phillies will little performance history, Golson is on the precipice of irrelevance. After going .175/.214/.200 over the last two weeks, Golson’s OPS on the season is .653.

Note: This is the last regular season ‘Hots & Nots’ list of the year. Next week we will post our end of the year ‘Hots & Nots’ where we will detail the biggest movers (both upward and downward) during the 2009 season.

Who’s Hot and Who’s Not Around the Minor Leagues: At 21yo Jays’ Snider Already a Pro

Snider hasn’t let an early season demotion derail him

When Travis Snider stumbled out of the gate this season, the Toronto Blue Jays were faced with a tough decision. They could let him try to work through his slump at the Major League level, or they could send Snider back down to the Minors to get things worked out and risk damaging the confidence of their best young hitter. The Jays chose the latter and, despite the early season struggles, Snider appears well on his way to establishing himself as one of the best young hitters in the game. For that, Snider heads this week’s list.

Hot Hitters –
1) Travis Snider, LF, TOR – Snider completed his rookie eligibility last season, but at 21yo, he is younger than all but three players on this list. After posting a .686 OPS for Toronto in the first month of the season, the Jays sent him down to Las Vegas. There he battled back problems and struggled to a .614 OPS in May before landing on the DL. Apparently recovered, Snider has handled himself like a true professional—never maligning his fate, and has posted a 1.244 OPS since returning. Over the last two weeks Snider has posted a .426/.500/.944 and appears ready to reclaim a spot in the Jays’ lineup any day now.

2) Josh Bell, 3B, LAD – The 22yo Bell has cut his strike out rate nearly in half this season and is putting together a breakout season. This made him one of the Dodgers’ most requested prospects at the deadline and lead to him being dealt to the Orioles in the Sherrill deal. Over the last two weeks Bell has put up a .469/.553/.813 and has a .880 OPS on the year.

3) Jason Heyward, OF, ATL – Last week Heyward topped this list and we discussed how amazing his Southern (SOL) League performance has been for a player his age. Still 4 days from his 20th birthday, Heyward hasn’t missed a beat since last week. Over the last two weeks he has posted a .467/.547/.778 and now has a 1.227 OPS through 27 SOL games. Heyward has clearly established himself as the Minor League’s best prospect and is looking like a future superstar. Expect him to see regular playing time in Atlanta by early 2010.

4) Allen Craig, 1B, STL – A former third basemen, the Cardinals thought enough of Craig’s defense that, despite being without Troy Glaus all season, they have left Craig and his 18 home runs in Memphis all year. I guess you could say that a prospect that is defensively limited to 1B in the Cardinal system is effectively ‘blocked’. At 25yo, Craig’s opportunities are fading, so he hopefully someone is taking notice of his noticed his .400/.466/.800 since the beginning of July.

5) Chris Carter, 1B, OAK – For being only 22yo, the Athletics first basemen has made the rounds in the Minor Leagues, currently playing with his third organization. Over the last two weeks, he has posted a .491/.563/.837, which only adds to what is turning out to be a ‘monster’ year. Through 106 Texas (TXL) League games, Carter has posted a .972 OPS with 34 doubles and 19 home runs.

6) Logan Morrison, 1B, FLA – In what has to be one of the weirder stat lines of the season, Morrison has walked 27 times over his last 18 games and now has a nearly 2:1 BB:K ratio on the year. Over the last two weeks Morrison has collected 17 of those walks on his way to a .263/.491/.473.

7) Carlos Santana, C, CLE – Victor Martinez is a top 5 catcher in the Major Leagues, but the Indians thought enough of Santana to deal Martinez to the Red Sox at the trade deadline. His plate discipline is among the best in the Minors, and he is slugging .531 in the Eastern (ESL) League. Over the last two week’s Santana has posted a .391/.451/.739 and now has a .934 OPS on the year.

8) Rymer Liriano, OF, SDP - This week’s ‘Who’s He? Award’ winner, the 18yo Liriano was signed by the Padres as a 16yo out of the Dominican Republic in 2007 for $300,000. He had an unspectacular debut season in the Dominican Summer (DSL) League in 2008, before the Padres brought him stateside. This year though, he has excelled, posting a .976 OPS through 32 Arizona (AZL) League games. Over the last two weeks, Liriano has posted a .333/.429/.778. Like many Latin American players, his future will be determined by his ability to learn to control the strike zone.

9) Zach Lutz, 3B, NYM – The Mets 5th round draft pick in 2007, has been limited by injuries to just 74 ABs in two seasons coming into 2009. The 23yo is trying to make up for lost time though, posting an .865 OPS through 285 Florida State (FSL) League ABs. Over the last two weeks he has gone .475/.523/.850.

10) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT – The 2008 2nd overall pick certainly has his doubters, as they question whether the thickly built Alvarez will be able to turn through the zone quick enough to ever make significant contact or whether he possesses the mobility to play anywhere but first base. Over the first three months of the season, it looked like the detractors might be right, as he posted only an .827 OPS in the Carolina (CAR) League as a 22yo, while fanning in 29% of his Plate Appearances. But the Calendar turned to July and the Bucs promoted Alvarez to Altoona, and he has become a different player, reducing his strikeout rate to 23% and boosting his average from .235 to .353. A .347/.467/.633 over the last two weeks, gives him a .958 OPS in the Eastern (ESL) League.


Hot Pitchers –
1) Dan Hudson, RHP, CHA – Hudson becomes only the third player all season to sit upon the top of one of these lists two weeks in a row. The 22yo Hudson has become one of the surprises of the 2009 season, and at the moment looks to be one of the steals of the 2008 draft, where the Whites Sox tabbed him in the 5th round after he had a disappointing Junior year. Hudson was solid in the Pioneer (PIO) League in his 2008 debut. He was phenomenal in the South Atlantic (SAL) League to open 2009. He limited CAR hitters to a .195 average against in 8 starts. And since his promotion to the SOL 9 starts ago, he has been unbelievable, limiting SOL hitters to a .188 average against while posting a 1.60 ERA. Working on a 29-inning scoreless streak, Hudson has posted a .550 WHIP with a 24:4 K:BB ratio.

2) Andrew Cashner, RHP, CHN – After posting a 5.85 ERA and a 23:19 BB:K ratio in 20 innings in 2008, many, this writer included, were questioning the Cubs first round selection. Few are questioning that pick anymore. Over the last 17 innings, Cashner has posted a 0.00 ERA, a 0.647 WHIP and a 17:5 K:BB ratio. His ERA through six SOL starts is 0.88.

3) Simon Castro, RHP, SDP – Castro is a huge 20yo, that is rapidly becoming one of the Midwest (MWL) League’s most intimidating pitchers. Working predominantly off of a mid-90s fastball, Castro is overpowering MWL hitters. Over the last two weeks, he has posted a 0.60 ERA, a 0.467 WHIP and a 23:1 K:BB ratio, giving him a 2.78 ERA since the beginning of June. It remains to be seen whether his secondary offerings will improve enough to make him a long-term rotation presence, but there is certainly Major League potential here.

4) Jose Ortegano, LHP, ATL – The lightly regarded left-hander entered the 2009 season with a 2.91 ERA…despite being young for his level of competition at each stop. Yet, because he too lacks a dominating fastball, you will have to search hard to find Ortegano on any prospect list. After posting a 3.49 ERA as a 21yo in the CAR, the Braves have moved him to the SOL. In his first two SOL starts, Ortegano has a 0.69 ERA, a 0.846 WHIP, with a 13:2 K:BB ratio.

5) Henderson Alvarez, RHP, TOR – Quickly becoming one of the Midwest (MWL) League’s most dominating pitchers, the 19yo Alvarez has a 2.18 ERA since the beginning of July. Over the last two weeks, Alvarez has a 1.20 ERA, a .933 WHIP, and a 14:1 K:BB ratio.

6) Christian Friedrich, LHP, COL – We felt Friedrich was the second best college pitcher available in the 2008 draft, but attending Eastern Kentucky kept him a bit under the radar screen entering the season. Friedrich dominated SAL hitters, fanning 66 in 45 IP. Going to the CAL, we thought he would face a stiffer challenge. So far, not so much. Friedrich hasn’t allowed more than 1 earned run in a game since June 10, and now has a 1.80 ERA in the hitter friendly California (CAL) League. Over the last two weeks he has put up a, 0.82 ERA, a 0.818 WHIP, with a 22:3 K:BB ratio. CAL hitters are batting .180 against him.

7) Wade Miley, LHP, ARZ – The 22yo Miley has been somewhat disappointing since the Diamondbacks made him a first round pick in the 2008 draft. After a 4.91 ERA in his 2008 debut, Miley posted a 4.33 ERA through June in the MWL. More is expected of a 22yo at that level, and Miley is showing signs of turning things around, allowing only 1 ER through his last three starts. Over that time Miley has a 0.417 WHIP, with a 11:2 K:BB ratio.

8) Wilmer Font, RHP, TEX – The Rangers were expecting big things from Font in 2008, but his season lasted all of 4 innings due to nagging injuries. The 19yo is healthy again and making MWL hitters pay for it. Over the last two weeks, Font has posted a 2.70 ERA, a 0.800 WHIP, with a 14:3 K:BB ratio. At 6’4”, 210 lbs, Font looks to add a couple of mph to his mid-90s fastball. There is significant upside here and his development of better command and refinement of his secondary offerings will determine his fate.

9) Casey Crosby, LHP, DET – The Tigers top prospect and arguably the top pitching prospect in the MWL, Crosby has been on a tremendous roll since the middle of June (1.46 ERA). Over the last two weeks, Crosby has posted a 0.96 ERA, a 0.750 ERA, and a 13:1 K:BB ratio. On the year MWL hitters are batting .204 against him and he has 107 strikeouts in 90 IP.

10) Scott Mathieson, RHP, PHI – After 2 Tommy John surgeries, Mathieson’s career was all but written off. The Phillies released and then resigned him and are in the process of making a reliever out of him. Albeit brief, the results have been spectacular thus far, as Mathieson has not allowed an earned run through his first 11 appearances, while fanning 20 in 16 innings. If he can prove that he is healthy, Mathieson could find himself in the Phillies’ bullpen in September.

The Nots –
1) Andrew Brackman, RHP, NYY – Easily one of the most disappointing stories of 2009, Brackman has a 1-11 record with a 6.70 ERA—as a 23yo in the SAL. Those are ‘on your way out baseball’ numbers, not numbers befitting a former first round draft pick, who was at one time considered the second best arm available in the 2007 draft. Over the last two weeks, Brackman has posted a 15.19 ERA, a 3.000 WHIP, with a 9:7 K:BB ratio. That performance earns him a top of the ‘Nots’ repeat performance.

2) Chris Valaika, SS, CIN – There were many that thought that Valaika would end up as the Reds’ everyday SS by the end of this season. Now they are wondering if he has enough tools to be an everyday player in the Big Leagues. A .083/.083/.104 over the last two weeks has dropped the 23yo’s OPS to .536 on the year. He isn’t really a SS at the next level, and there are serious questions as to how much he will hit.

3) Joshua Fields, RHP, SEA – The unfortunate part of achieving Major League success for a Minor League prospect is that part of success is dependent on opportunity that is sometimes outside of one’s control. For Fields, there is significant near-term opportunity available for him that he just isn’t capitalizing on right now. A 15.88 ERA, 3.000 WHIP, with a 6:5 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves Fields with a 6.48 ERA on the year.

4) Mat Gamel, 3B, MIL – After a disappointing stint in Milwaukee, the 23yo Gamel found himself back in Nashville where he has put up solid, yet unspectacular numbers. A .109/.226/.130 over the last two weeks, leaves Gamel’s OPS at .743 on the year. With a suspect glove, if Gamel doesn’t have a spectacular bat, then his future is murky.

5) Adrian Cardenas, 2B, OAK – The 21yo Cardenas earned himself a promotion to AAA by posting a .838 OPS in the Texas (TXL) League. After 20 games and a .450 OPS, it is beginning to look like it is a little too much, too soon. Cardenas has posted a .106/.106/.170 over the last two weeks.

6) Barry Enright, RHP, ARZ – The 23yo Enright was the Diamondbacks’ second round pick in 2007. Entering the season, he looked like he could become a back-of-the rotation innings eater. Another season, another solid but unspectacular result (4.38 ERA, .295 average against) may leave more questions than answers. We worry about a lack of a dominant out pitch and the lack of remaining upside projection. Over the last two weeks, Enright has posted a 12.60 ERA, a 2.900 WHIP and a 7:3 K:BB ratio.

7) Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS – No other elite level prospect has been as disappointing this season as has Anderson. That being said, he is still just 21yo and is competing at AA where his .700 OPS is nearly .260 points lower than his 2008 performance. More disturbing is his seemingly AWOL power stroke. Anderson has always had a propensity to strikeout (roughly 25% K rate) and improving that will be required to be successful as he moves up. No one is writing him off at this point, but his season has to be categorized as disturbing. A .113/.190/.151 over the last two weeks.

8) Oscar Tejeda, SS, BOS – Signed out of the Dominican Republic as one of the highest bonused Latin American 16yos in 2006, Tejeda has yet, offensively, to live up to expectations, as he entered 2009 with a career OPS of .685. Making a return trip to the SAL, his .612 OPS is actually slightly worse than it was in his first go round. Over the last two weeks, Tejeda has posted a .094/.121/.125.

9) Nick Green, RHP, LAA – The Angels returned Green to the Pacific Coast (PCL) League this year, where the results didn’t change much from 2008. In over 200 PCL innings, opposing hitters are batting nearly .300 against him. Over the last two weeks, Green has posted a 11.25 ERA and a 1.875 WHIP, earning himself a demotion to the SOL. At 24yo, Green needs to get things figured out in a hurry, or his next stop may be out of the game.

10) Ryan Mount, 2B, LAA – The Angels’ second round pick in 2005, Mount entered the season coming off of his best season as a pro, where he posted an .849 OPS in the CAL. This season, TXL pitchers have not been as accommodating, as Mount’s .125/.222/.150 over his last 45 ABs leaves his OPS at .617 on the year. Nagging injuries have troubled Mount throughout his career, as he has never appeared in more than 85 games in any season, and won’t this year either. Still only 22yo, there is plenty of time to get things figured out, but 2009 has definitely been a step backward.

Who’s Hot and Who’s Not Around the Minor Leagues: Braves’ Heyward Now Minor’s Best

Heyward is putting up numbers for a 19yo in AA that haven't been seen in more than a decade

When Matt Wieters and David Price were called up within a week of each other, at the end of May, the question became ‘who is now the best prospect in the Minor Leagues?’ Regular readers will recall that I listed 10 players who were in contention for that title, stating that it was a real toss-up among the ten. In a coin flip, I gave the edge to Jarrod Parker over Jason Heyward and Madison Bumgarner. Two months later, a clear #1 has emerged from the group, as Jason Heyward is putting up nearly unimaginable numbers in the Southern (SOL) League. Through his first 20 SOL games, Heyward has posted a 1.295 OPS—as a 19yo. Over the last 20 years, only 17 players have had 100 or more ABs in the SOL as a 19yo or younger. Only three of those have posted an OPS higher than .900…only 4 have even posted an .800 OPS. In fact, no 19yo or 20yo has hit .900 since 19yo Delmon Young hit .968 in 2005. One has to go all the way back to 1996, when another 19yo, Braves OF prospect, Andruw Jones, put together a 1.107 OPS, to even come close to the start Heyward is putting together for the Mississippi Braves. For that, Jason Heyward tops this week’s Hot List.

Hot Hitters –

1) Jason Heyward, OF, ATL – Heyward has clearly established himself as the Minor League’s best prospect with his 1.295 OPS through his first 20 SOL games. Over the last two weeks, he is .500/.577/.864 and looking like a future superstar. Heyward should see regular playing time in Atlanta by early 2010.

2) Carlos Santana, C, CLE – Victor Martinez is a top 5 catcher in the Major Leagues, but the Indians think enough of Santana to be actively shopping Martinez. Santana’s defense has made huge strides this season. His plate discipline is among the best in the Minors. And he is slugging .536 in the Eastern (ESL) League. Santana homered in four straight games this past week and posting a .343/.410/.857 over the last two weeks leaves him with a .935 OPS on the year.

3) Josh Bell, 3B, LAD – The 22yo Bell has cut his strike out rate nearly in half this season and is putting together a breakout season in the SOL. Credit an improved attitude and approach to the game for the changes that may finally allow him to tap into all of that potential. A .452/.540/.810 over the last two weeks gives him a .893 OPS for the season.

4) Brandon Allen, 1B, ARZ – Allen seems extremely comfortable in his Reno surroundings, following his trade for RP, Tony Pena. The struggles of May and June appear to be behind him as he has posted a .319/.407/.809 over the last two weeks and a 1.252 since being dealt to the Diamondbacks.

5) Ike Davis, 1B, NYM – Davis’ 2009 season is a great illustration as to why one shouldn’t put too much stock in a player’s post-draft debut, as Davis posted a .652 in his 2008 New York-Penn (NYP) debut and didn’t hit a single home run in 215 ABs. After going .388/.444/.714 over his last 55 PA’s, Davis now has a .929 OPS, with 7 home runs in 127 Eastern (ESL) League ABs.

6) Gabriel Noriega, SS, SEA – Signed to one of the highest bonuses ($800,000) given to a player from Venezuela in 2007, Noriega is the best defensive SS in the Mariner’s system, and one of the better defensive shortstops in the minor leagues. His ceiling is limited only by his ability to hit. In a return trip to the Appalachian (APY) League that hasn’t seemed to be much of a problem. A .513/.558/.846 over the last two weeks gives him a .950 OPS for the year.

7) Jon Gaston, OF, HOU – When a player is as hot as Gaston has been for the last month, it is difficult to continue the mantra that he really isn’t a Major League prospect. Nonetheless, that is exactly where we find ourselves in describing Gaston. He has severe defensive limitations, has huge contact problems (26% strikeout rate), is a bit old for a prospect in the California (CAL) League, and has an OPS that is .270 points lower away from Lancaster. Yet, over the last two weeks, Gaston has posted a .277/424/.872 with 7HRs, including back-to-back 2 HR games, and certainly deserves a place on this list. While we don’t expect his ‘other-wordly’ numbers to continue once he leaves the CAL, the Jethawk fans are certainly enjoying them.

8) Allen Craig, 1B, STL – A former third basemen, the Cardinals thought enough of Craig’s defense that, despite being without Troy Glaus all season, they have left Craig and his 17 home runs in Memphis all year. I guess you could say that a prospect that is defensively limited to 1B in the Cardinal system is effectively ‘blocked’. At 25yo, Craig’s opportunities are fading, so he hopes someone has noticed his .453/.500/1.038, with 9 HRs, over his last 60 PA’s.

9) Tyson Gillies, CF, SEA – Gillies is on a list with Derek Norris and teammate Alex Liddi, of position players that have put themselves on the radar screen with huge 2009 seasons. He has all of the prototypical tools that one looks for in a top of the order CF. The last two weeks have seen Gillies post a 448/.492/.569, giving him a .922 OPS for the year, and giving the Mariners a good idea of who is there future CF.

10) Dayan Viciedo, 3B, CHA – Watching Cuban players adjust to American baseball over the last few years has caused me to believe in two important tenants: 1) They tend to be notoriously slow starters—especially until the weather warms and 2) They require one-half to one-full season to get acclimated. Viciedo’s OPS has gone from .518 in April, to .711 in May, to .724 in June, and .769 in July, with a .381/.395/.571 over the last two weeks. What’s more is that his defense at 3B has been surprisingly adequate. Maybe even more impressive is that his strikeout rate was over 22% for the first two months of the season and just a bit over 11% for the last two. Remember he is still just 19yo and is playing in AA. A strong finish to the season could lead to Gordon Beckham sliding over to 2B, making room for Viciedo at 3B to begin 2010.

Hot Pitchers –

1) Dan Hudson, RHP, CHA – When the White Sox’s 5th round pick from the 2008 draft fanned 90 Pioneer (PIO) League batters in 70 IP in his debut, we took notice, but chalked it up to a 21yo being in a Rookie League. When Hudson opened up the South Atlantic (SAL) League this year with a 1.23 ERA we were intrigued. After opposing hitters batted .195 against him in 8 Carolina (CAR) League starts, we felt he had potential, but after the 22yo has posted a 2.03 ERA in 7 SOL starts…we believe. Hudson has a low-90s fastball, with late movement, that befuddles left-handed hitters. His secondary offerings are improving, and he has a frame that should allow him to be a mid-rotation innings eater. Hudson is working on a 16-inning scoreless streak, in which he has posted a 0.571 WHIP and a 13:1 K:BB ratio, and now has a 2.43 ERA on the season.

2) Christian Friedrich, LHP – We felt Friedrich was the second best college pitcher available in the 2008 draft, but attending Eastern Kentucky kept him a bit under the radar screen entering the season. Friedrich dominated SAL hitters, fanning 66 in 45 IP. Going to the CAL, we thought he would face a stiffer challenge. So far, not so much. Friedrich is working on an 11 inning scoreless streak where he has posted a 0.750 WHIP and a 17:4 K:BB ratio. CAL hitters are batting only .177 against him and he now has a 1.98 ERA on the season.

3) Simon Castro, RHP, SDP – Castro is a huge 20yo, that is rapidly becoming one of the Midwest (MWL) League’s most intimidating pitchers. Working predominantly off of a mid-90s fastball, Castro is overpowering MWL hitters. Over the last two weeks, he has posted a 1.80 ERA, a 0.467 WHIP and a 24:2 K:BB ratio. It remains to be seen whether his secondary offerings will improve enough to make him a long-term rotation presence, but there is certainly Major League potential here.

4) Drew Storen, RHP, WSN – After a standout career at Stanford, Storen entered June’s draft as the consensus top closer available. It was expected that he would go somewhere in the late first round/supplemental, but the Nationals caught a lot of people by surprise when they used their compensatory pick, for their failure to sign Aaron Crowe the year before, to select the 21yo right-hander. Storen has not been scored upon in 8 straight appearances. During that stretch he has retired 34 of 35 batters he has faced—23 by strike out.

5) Casey Crosby, LHP, DET – Casey was named MWL pitcher of the week last week, and has clearly established himself as the Tigers top prospect. Over his last three starts, Crosby has posted a 2.08 ERA, a 0.692 WHIP, with a 17:4 K:BB ratio. The 21yo has now fanned 101 MWL batters in 86 innings. Opposing hitters are batting .203 against him, and he quite possibly may be the best pitching prospect in the league.

6) Aneury Rodriguez, RHP, TBR - Following his move to the Rays in the Jason Hammel deal, Rodriguez struggled mightily. At the end of June, Rodriguez’s ERA stood at 6.27. Working on a 13-inning scoreless streak, where he has posted a 0.474 WHIP and a 12:4 K:BB ratio, Rodriguez has lowered his season ERA to 5.23.

7) Craig Kimbrel, RHP, ATL – Quick…who has the best strikeout rate in the Minor Leagues? That’s right, it’s the Braves’ Kimbrel at 15.7 strikeouts per 9 IP. Kimbrel struggled a bit after his promotion to Myrtle Beach, but he seems to have gotten things figured out, as he has allowed only 1 run on two hits over his last nine outings. Over the last two weeks, he has a 1.29 ERA, a 0.857 WHIP and a 16:2 K:BB ratio.

8) Tyler Clippard, RHP, WSN – The 24yo Clippard may be one of the game’s least appreciated pitchers. Coming into the year, in six minor league seasons, predominantly as a starter, Clippard had a 3.73 ERA, with more strikeouts than IP, while generally being young for his level of competition at each stop. Yet, because he lacks a dominating fastball, he has never really been given a Big League shot. The Nationals have moved him to the bullpen this year where he has been absolutely lights out. A 0.92 ERA in 39 Minor League IP and a 1.93 ERA in 19 Major League IP. Over the last two weeks, Clippard has posted a 0.77 ERA, a 0.771 WHIP, with a 17:5 K:BB ratio.

9) Jose Ortegano, LHP, ATL – Speaking of pitchers that get no respect, in 5 Minor League seasons, Ortegano has posted a 2.91 ERA…despite being young for his level of competition at each stop. Yet, because he too lacks a dominating fastball, you will have to search hard to find Ortegano on any prospect list. After posting a 3.49 ERA as a 21yo in the CAR, the Braves have moved him to the SOL where he tossed 7 innings of 1-run ball in his debut on Tuesday night. Opposing hitters are batting .219 against him on the year and once he continues to shut down AA hitters, the ‘experts’ will have to take notice.

10) Junichi Tazawa, RHP, BOS - Perhaps the most significant International signing of 2008, Tazawa has been everything that the Red Sox had hoped for when they gave him a $1.8 million bonus. After posting a 1.06 ERA, a 0.706 WHIP with a 12:1 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, Tazawa has a 2.51 ERA on the year. The 23yo should figure prominently into Boston’s plans in 2010.

The Nots –

1) Andrew Brackman, RHP, NYY – Easily one of the most disappointing stories of 2009, Brackman has a 1-11 record with a 6.72 ERA—as a 23yo in the SAL. Those are ‘on your way out baseball’ numbers, not numbers befitting a former first round draft pick, who was at one time considered the second best arm available in the 2007 draft. Over the last two weeks, Brackman has posted a 14.73 ERA, a 2.727 WHIP, with a 3:8 K:BB ratio.

2) Kevin Mulvey, RHP, MIN – That Johan Santana trade keeps looking worse and worse for the Twins. Guerra hasn’t been anything close to what the Twins believed they were getting. At 26yo, Phil Humber looks like a 4A player, and Mulvey looks like a back of the rotation guy at best. Over the last two weeks, Mulvey has posted a 16.20 ERA, a 2.550 WHIP, with a 7:3 K:BB ratio…leaving his ERA at 4.40 on the season.

3) Carmen Angelini, SS, NYY – Signed for a record $1 million bonus, as a 10th round pick, in 2007. It seemed like a strange move, given they were signing a player with a questionable bat, whose best tool was his grit. Angelini hasn’t changed any opinions in two years. A .048/.091/.048 over his last two weeks leaves him with a .470 OPS on the year.

4) Colby Rasmus, OF, STL - Though technically not a prospect, Rasmus is demonstrating that it isn’t just talented young pitchers that experience their ups and downs as they get acclimated to the Major Leagues. Over the last two weeks, Rasmus has gone .067/.125/.067 and now has gone 52 ABs since hitting an extra base hit. With Holliday on board, if Ankiel gets hot Rasmus could find himself back in Memphis.

5) Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, MIN – After breezing through the FSL with a 1.32 ERA and an astonishing 4.48 GO/AO ratio, Gutierrez has found ESL hitters less susceptible to his often ‘fringy’ offerings. Over the last two weeks, Gutierrez has a 12.71 ERA, a 2.471 WHIP and a 4:5 K:BB ratio, leaving his ESL ERA at 7.51 through 14 appearances.

6) Billy Rowell, OF, BAL – It has been all downhill for Rowell since his stellar debut in 2006. The former first round pick has gone 0.074/.107/.111 over the last two weeks and now is sitting at a .632 OPS for the year. He is still only 20yo, so there is still plenty of time to get things back on track, but the Orioles need to return him to Frederick for a repeat performance in 2010.

7) Joshua Fields, RHP, SEA – The unfortunate part of achieving Major League success for a Minor League prospect is that part of success is dependent on opportunity that is sometimes outside of one’s control. For Fields, there is significant near-term opportunity available for him that he just isn’t capitalizing on right now. A 12.60 ERA, 3.000 WHIP, with a 4:5 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves Fields with a 5.90 ERA on the year.

8) Pete Kozma, SS, STL – The Cardinals 1st round pick in 2007, Kozma has yet to post playable offensive numbers in three professional seasons. A .114/.170/.114 over the last two weeks and 70 ABs without an extra base hit, leaves Kozma with a .640 OPS for 2009.

9) Vance Worley, RHP, PHI – Worley got off to a fast start this season, that left him with a 3.12 ERA at the end of May. Things haven’t gone so well since then. A 19.96 ERA, with a 2.609 WHIP over the last two weeks has his ERA up to 5.38 on the year.

10) Chris Valaika, SS, CIN – There were many that thought that Valaika would end up as the Reds’ everyday SS by the end of this season. Now they are wondering if he has enough tools to be an everyday player in the Big Leagues. A .100/.151/.200 over the last two weeks has dropped the 23yo’s OPS to .559 on the year. He isn’t really a SS at the next level, and there are serious questions as to how much he will hit.

Who’s Hot and Who’s Not Around the Minor Leagues: Mariners’ Liddi Carries Hopes of a Continent

An invasion of European players may well depend on the likes of Alex Liddi

It is hard enough being a 20yo baseball prospect trying to claw your way to the big leagues. It is even harder when you carry the hopes of your nation along for the ride. But few players have the possibility of creating paradigm shifts along with their success. Yet that is exactly what the skinny kid from San Remo, Italy faces every time he steps on the field. Alex Liddi, you see, may represent the first wave of what could well turn into an invasion of European players to the Major League game.

When the Mariners signed Liddi, for $55,000, as a 17yo, in the fall of 2005, he was one of four players signed from the inaugural Major League Baseball European academy in Tirrenia, Italy. Only he and the Cubs’ Alessandro Maestri remain. As July 2nd approaches, and with it the start of the International signing period, players like Germany’s 16yo centerfielder, Max Keppler, are eagerly watching Liddi’s 2009 success. For with it may come a flood future European-born players to the Major Leagues. Thankfully, for the Europeans, they have a player of tremendous character and work ethic to pioneer their cause and it is Liddi that sits atop this week’s list.

Hot Hitters –

1) Alex Liddi, 3B, SEA – We have been leading the Liddi bandwagon since the beginning of the season. Rarely do you find a player with the tools, the projectable frame, the work ethic and the production on the field, all in the same package, but that is exactly what Liddi has brought to the table all season long. A .395/.435/.767 over his last 50 PA’s gives him a 1.043 OPS on the season. Liddi will still need to continue to improve upon his roughly 25% strikeout rate as he moves up the ladder, but he has come from off the radar to one of the top prospects in the game with his performance this season.

2) Lance Zawadzki, SS, SDP – Zawadzki is another of those players who is putting together a breakout season. He was a 4th round pick out of NAIA Lee University in Tennessee in 2007 and has put up respectable numbers in two previous seasons. His success in the Texas (TXL) League was crucial to his prospect status and he has certainly not disappointed. A .510/.590/.745 over his last 62 PAs, leaves him with a .950 OPS on the year.

3) Tyler Flowers, C, CHA – Flowers was the centerpiece in this past winter’s Javier Vazquez trade. With A.J. Pierzynski getting a bit long in the tooth, the White Sox are hoping that Flowers will be able to step into that roll by 2011. Flowers has posted a .361/.489/.806 over the last two weeks and now has his OPS at .965 on the year. We continue to caution against too much optimism in Flower’s ability to remain at Catcher over the long haul, but his bat should play most anywhere.

4) Derrik Gibson, 2B/SS, BOS – Gibson, perhaps the biggest beneficiary of Casey Kelly’s mound success, was the Red Sox second round choice in the 2008 draft. He has the glove, the speed and the bat to be an impact middle infielder at the next level, and has gotten off to a scorching (.471/.600/.735) start in his New York-Penn (NYP) debut.

5) Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL – After a somewhat slow start, Freeman is picking right up where he left off last season. A .378/.462/.622 over his last 55 PAs, leaves the 19yo with a .859 OPS on the season.

6) Jeff Bianachi, SS, KCR – After the Royals made him their 2nd round pick in 2005, Bianchi put up, what was arguably, the best debut by any high school player selected that year. Injuries limited him to a mere 42 ABs the following season, and he struggled in the two seasons following that. Now 22yo, he is once again playing the way he did after the Royals drafted him. A .477/.521/.659 over his last 50 PA’s, leaves him with an .857 OPS on the season.

7) Roger Kieschnick, OF, SFG – Selected by the Giants in the 3rd round last June, Kieschnick didn’t make his professional debut until this year. Making up for lost time, Kieschnick has been on fire in the California (CAL) League. A .357/.400/.786 over the last two weeks, gives the 22yo a .891 OPS on the year.

8) Kent Matthes, OF, COL – The 2009 NCAA home run champ, slipped to the Rockies in the 4th round of last month’s draft. Despite being a senior, we felt Matthes was one of the top 10 college position players available in the draft and Matthes, so far, is making us look good, with a .429/.490/.643 Northwest (NWL) League debut. At 22yo, he needs to be moved up to Ashville very soon.

9) Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX – Recovering from a strained oblique, Smoak has wasted little time restarting the ‘Arlington express’. After a two game rehab in the Arizona (AZL) League where he murdered the younger pitchers, Smoak hasn’t been any more kind to the hurlers in the Texas League. Through 9 games in his return, Smoak has posted a .424/.486/.667 and now has a .986 OPS on the year. As the Rangers battle for a Western Division title, it is this author’ s opinion that Smoak would prove to be a more productive option than Chris ‘swing and miss’ Davis.

10) Rene Tosoni, OF, MIN – A draft-and-follow from the 2005 draft, Tosoni had compiled two solid, yet not spectacular, seasons prior to this year. Only turning 22yo on Thursday, and playing in the Eastern (ESL) League, Tosoni is producing similar results. A .354/.446/.604 over the last two weeks, leaves his OPS at .886 on the year.


Hot Pitchers –

1) Mike Montgomery, LHP, KCR – The Royals have a solid group of A-ball pitchers (Duffy, Melville, Montgomery, etc), and for our money, the 19yo Montgomery is the best of the bunch. Turning 20yo today, Montgomery has only allowed more than 1 earned run, in only one of his 8 starts this year. A 1.54 ERA, with a 0.429 WHIP and a 14:1 K:BB ratio over his last two starts, gives him a 1.93 ERA on the year.

2) Casey Crosby, LHP, DET – The Tiger fans had to wait a while to see the fruits of their 2007 5th round pick, because he blew out his elbow shortly after signing. But the wait has been worth it, as Crosby has posted a 0.00 ERA, a 0.533 WHIP and a 11:4 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, and has a 3.39 ERA through 15 Midwest (MWL) starts. With 74 K’s in 63IP, Crosby has arguably been the MWL’s best pitcher this season.

3) Matt Moore, LHP, TBR – Moore has been one of our favorites since the Rays ‘stole’ him in the 8th round of the 2007 draft. All of his pitches have tremendous late action, and, once he learns to harness his control, he will become one of the best arms in a very talented system. A 0.77 ERA, 0.771 WHIP, with a 17:4 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, gives him a 3.14 ERA on the year.

4) Trevor Bell, RHP, LAA – People forget that Bell was a first round pick by the Angels in 2005. After four solid, but unspectacular, seasons, he had somewhat disappeared from the radar screen. Still just 22yo, Bell put on a show in 11 Texas (TXL) League starts that earned him a promotion to the PCL, where he has been even better. Through three PCL starts, Bell has a 0.39 ERA, a 0.478 WHIP and a 12:2 K:BB ratio.

5) Hector Rondon, RHP, CLE – Rondon continues his steady climb up the prospect charts, as 14 1/3 scoreless innings leaves the 21yo with a 2.29 ERA through 12 Eastern League starts. Rondon placed #31 in our latest prospect rankings.

6) Kyle Drabek, RHP, PHI – Drabek has been dealing all year long and really seems to have put his career back on track, after 2007 Tommy John surgery. A 1.76 ERA, 0.717 WHIP and a 14:1 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves the 21yo with a 2.46 ERA on the year.

7) T.J. House, LHP, CLE – Taken in the 16th round, but signed for second round money, in the 2008 draft, House didn’t make his debut until this year. Only 19yo, House has posted a 0.69 ERA, 0.846 WHIP, with a 11:2 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks. He now has a 2.48 ERA through his first 15 professional starts.

8) Luke French, LHP, DET – An 8th round pick in 2004, prior to this year, French had posted 5 non-descript seasons. 2009, though, has been a breakout for French. A 1.80 ERA, 0.733 WHIP, with a 18:2 K:BB ratio over his last three starts, leaves French with a 2.98 ERA on the year and has earned him a Big League call-up.

9) Andrew Cashner, RHP, CHN - The Cubs first round pick in 2008, had a horrendous debut last summer. His start wasn’t a lot better this Spring, as Cashner struggled mightily with his control. However, since mid-May, Cashner has reduced his walk rate to 2.2 BB per 9IP. A 0.00 ERA, 0.833 WHIP and a 10:4 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks leaves his season ERA at 1.50.

10) Brandon Hynick, RHP , COL – A 14 inning scoreless streak and the PCL’s first perfect game since June of 2007, earned Hynick this spot, as his 2.37ERA, 0.789 WHIP with an 11:2 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves him with a 3.50 ERA on the year.


The Nots –

1) Michael Almanzar, 3B, BOS – The highest priced Latin American signing of 2007, has been significantly overmatched in his brief career. At 18yo, it’s still difficult to get a read on him due to the fact that he has been so much younger than his competition, but things are beginning to get scary. The Red Sox sent him to Lowell when the short-season leagues began, but the results continue to spiral. A .091/.118/.091 over the last two weeks gives Almanzar a .520 OPS for the year.

2) Bobby Parnell, RHP, NYM – After putting together a solid April and May that had his ERA at 2.11 entering June, the 24yo Parnell had the wheels fall off last month, allowing 12 ERs in 8 IP, leaving his season ERA at 5.22.

3) Duke Welker, RHP, PIT – Some organizations just continue to fail, regardless of who is at the helm. After Huntington came out last week and admitted that the Pirates may have made a mistake in signing Ian Snell to a 3-year, $8 million, deal last Spring, I am officially declaring their 2007 2nd round round pick a ‘bust’. In three years, the 23yo University of Arkansas alum can’t get out of Lo-A. A 19.29 ERA, 3.643 WHIP with a 4:10 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves Welker with an 0-8 record and a 5.59 ERA through 15 South Atlantic (SAL) League starts. Remember, Daniel Moskos was their 2007 first round pick.

4) Wilkin Ramirez, OF, DET – The 23yo Ramirez is looking more and more to me like AAA may be his ceiling. A .104/.189/.125 over the last two weeks, leaves his OPS at .683 on the year.

5) Angel Villalona, 1B, SFG – Don’t make any mistakes by thinking his appearance on the ‘Not’ list is some sort of condemnation, but there are beginning to be a number of concerns surrounding Villalona. Still just 18yo, and already in the California (CAL) League, is a positive sign, but at 6’3”, 205 lbs, his increasing immobility continues to raise the bar for his bat. A .182/.182/.182 over the last two weeks has dropped his OPS to .726 on the year. 65 Ks in 265 ABs doesn’t make one feel any better.

6) Alex Amarista, 2B, LAA – Amarista, at 5’8”, 150lbs, the 20yo Amarista isn’t going to be given a lot of margin for error. A .083/.083/.083 over the last two weeks and only 1 XBH in his last 64 ABs isn’t the kind of numbers he needs.

7) Brett Marshall, RHP, NYY – Marshall received a larger bonus than any Yankee 2008 draftee. Making his full season debut in the SAL, Marshall has walked too many and missed two few bats to make up for, what I consider to be, fringe average stuff. The Yankees lover his raw power, but I have severe reservations as to whether he will ever be able to harness it, given the effort involved in his delivery. A 12.54 ERA, 1.821 WHIP over the last two weeks, leaves Marshall with a 5.45 ERA on the year.

8) Drew Stubbs, OF, CIN – Sometimes I feel like the President of the ‘What is there to like about Drew Stubbs?’ club. As a former first round pick, the Reds will continue to give Stubbs chances, but in four seasons, he has never posted an OPS higher than .788. A .145/.203/.164 over the last two weeks puts his OPS this year at .728

9) Danny Carroll, OF, SEA – After the Mariners made him their 3rd round selection in 2007, Carroll offered glimpses of promise with his AZL debut. Unfortunately, it has been downhill for the 20yo since. A .130/.200/.174 over the last two weeks leaves him with a .419 OPS on the year.

10) Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, MIL – Regular readers already understand that I have never been a huge fan of Jeffress and his 100mph fastball that sails all over the park. 55 walks in 60 innings this year and a demotion back to the Florida State (FSL) League did little to further endear him. Now, after strike two in baseball’s drug program, Jeffress will miss 100 games that will take him into at least May of next year. If you choose not to write him off at this point, it’s your own fault.

Who’s Hot and Who’s Not around the Minor Leagues: Coghlan Slugs His Way to a Marlin Call-Up

Coghlan and the Marlins hope this is just the first of many runs

The season is finally in full swing. Everyday Minor League hitters are passing the 100AB mark, starting pitchers are approaching 40IP, as the weather warms the players that have been held back in extended Spring training are starting to make their debuts and we are starting to see our first real promotions. Finally we can begin to get a read on actual player trends and not just streaks. This week’s list reflects that, as it is loaded with players who are establishing themselves as elite prospects.

Hot Hitters -

1) Chris Coghlan, 2B, FLA – You know you are hitting the ball well when the big league club is willing to call you up and play you out of position just to get your bat into the lineup. Such is the case this week for Coghlan who is replacing Cameron Maybin on the Marlins’ roster and is seeing time in the outfield. Coghlan has gone .486/.591/.857 over the last two weeks and had a 1.522 OPS in AAA. The 23yo has excellent strike-zone judgment and is targeted as the Marlins long-term answer at 2B.

2) Dominic Brown, OF, PHI – Brown remains the bridesmaid of this list, two weeks running, after posting a .426/.500/.833 over his last 54 ABs. He now has a .989 OPS on the season and has clearly established himself as the Phillies’ top prospect.

3) Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX – Every so often there are players that come into professional baseball that very early on leave absolutely no doubt about their future superstardom. Evan Longoria and Matt Wieters are the two most recent examples, and I think we can begin to put Smoak into that category. There isn’t a weakness to his game as he defensively plays his position first rate, hits for power from both sides of the plate, and has amazing strike-zone judgment, as is evidenced by his 26:19 BB:K ratio on the year. Over his last 61 PAs, Smoak is .404/.541/.617 and now has a 1.020 OPS for the season.

4) Derek Norris, C, WSN – Norris was somewhat overlooked entering the season as he made none of the ‘expert’ Top 100 lists. It is somewhat remarkable considering that as one of the New York-Penn (NYP) league’s youngest regulars, he posted a .907 OPS (5th best), while taking more walks than K’s. Add to that the fact that he possesses one of the minor’s best backstop arms (nailed 47% of basestealers in 2008) and you begin to wonder what it takes to get noticed. The barely 20yo Norris has been on a tear over his last 50 PAs (.350/.480/.725), bringing his OPS to .980 on the season. Don’t expect Norris to miss many of those lists next winter.

5) Michael Saunders, OF, SEA – With the Rangers and the Angels red hot in the AL West, the Mariners are fading fast. Their current OF/1B/DH situation consists of Ichiro, some players past their time, some players yet to discover their time and some players that just never had a time. I’m no GM, but it looks like the right time for the fans in Seattle to get their first look at guys like Mike Carp and Michael Saunders. The 22yo Saunders is the most complete OF, outside of Ichiro, in the Mariner system and has gone .333/.436/.879 over the last two weeks and now sports a 1.267 OPS on the year.

6) Jaff Decker, OF, SDP – Decker is still really named ‘Jaff’, still is in possession of John Kruk’s body, and still is beating up Midwest League (MWL) pitchers. A .344/.553/.688 line over the last two weeks leaves the 19yo Decker with a 1.175 OPS for the season.

7) Xavier Avery, OF, BAL – Drafted in the 2nd round last June, primarily for his speed and athleticism, Avery is beginning to turn heads with his production. After getting off to a dreadful start, the 19yo has pounded South Atlantic League (SAL) pitching to the tune of .439/.477/.732 over the last two weeks.

8) Hank Conger, C, LAA – When the Angels selected Conger in the first round in 2006, he was considered an offensive catcher with the possibility of sticking behind the plate because of his cannon-like arm. After a spectacular pro debut in 2006, two injury-plagued seasons left Conger, and the Angels, with more questions than answers. Well I think we are starting to get some answers. Conger is back behind the plate and showing that powerful arm that got him noticed. Add to that a .449/.491/.612 over the last two weeks, and you start to conjure up a picture that has Napoli as a full-time DH and Jeff Mathis as a full-time reserve sometime early next season.

9) Nolan Reimold, OF, BAL – With Luke Scott’s shoulder ailing it may be only a tad longer before Reimold finally gets his chance. Arguably no player in the minors has posted a more impressive offensive season thus far. A .381/.490/.810 over the last two weeks is just icing on the cake.

10) Jesus Guzman, IF, SFG – One of the most puzzling off-season moves to me was that of the A’s releasing Guzman. I don’t understand why an organization that starts Bobby Crosby at third and Adam Kennedy at second didn’t have room for a 24yo 2B/3B that just posted a .948 OPS at three different levels. Guzman, now a Giant prospect, is enjoying sticking it to his cross-bay rivals. His .444/.468/.800 over his last 50 PA’s brings his OPS to .973 on the year.



Hot Pitchers –

1) Tim Alderson, RHP, SFG – Madison Bumgarner gets more attention and undeniably has the bigger upside, but I am still not sure that, when considering the potential vs. certainty equation, Alderson still isn’t the better value. After a promotion to AA this week, the 20yo turned in one of the season’s best games to date, allowing but a walk over 6 2/3IP while fanning 10. Over the last two weeks he has a 1.32 ERA, 0.439 WHIP, with a 16:1 K:BB ratio.

2) Kris Medlen, RHP, ATL – Tommy Hanson gets all the attention, and deservedly so, but the Gwinnett Braves have another starter that looks primed for a big league opportunity. Medlen is 5-0, with a 0.96 ERA on the year. Over his last three starts he has posted a 0.661 WHIP, a 24:6 K:BB ratio and has not allowed an earned run in 19 2/3 IP.

3) Brad Holt, RHP, NYM – After thoroughly dominating NYP hitters in his professional debut last fall, Holt seemed poised to put together a big season this year. So what did he do? He opened up the year by allowing 9ER and 11 baserunners, including 4 walks in 3 2/3 IP. Over his next five starts he has allowed 4 ERs and issued 4 walks. A 1.64 ERA, 0.818 WHIP and a 9:3 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

4) Vance Worley, RHP, PHI – With Anthony Hewitt, Zach Collier, Jason Knapp and Anthony Gose, the Phillies grabbed quite a talent haul in the first two rounds of last June’s draft. Apparently they didn’t do badly with their third round pick either. Worley has posted a 1.29 ERA, 0.667 WHIP with a 20:2 K:BB ratio over his last three starts against Eastern League (ESL) hitters and is now 3-0, with a 2.11 ERA on the season.

5) Bryan Augenstein, RHP, ARZ – By the time you read this, Augenstein will have made his major league debut. He earned that shot by opening the year 5-0 with a 0.78 ERA in 6 Southern League starts. The Diamondbacks drafted Augenstein in the 7th round of the 2007 draft and he has flown under the radar screen, despite posting two solid seasons. The reason for the lack of notoriety has to do with the lack of a true out pitch and a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Nonetheless, he has utilized a ‘heady’ mound approach to post a 1.15 ERA, 0.830 WHIP and a 14:4 K:BB ratio over his last 3 starts.

6) Ross Detwiler, LHP, WSN – The 6th overall selection in the 2007 draft put together a disappointing 2008 season--lackluster enough to begin to stir questions about the pick. Despite starting 2009 at 0-3, he looks like he’s beginning to turn things around. A 0.90 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, and a 16:1 K:BB ratio over his last three starts.

7) Manny Banuelos, LHP, NYY – The Yankees have some really solid, young, Latin American, talent ready to make a big time splash. Outfielders Kelvin DeLeon and Eduardo Sosa and RHP Arodys Vizcaino get more attention, but Manny Banuelos seems poised to grab the first headlines. Just two months past his 18th birthday, Banuelos is one of the youngest pitchers in the SAL. But that hasn’t deterred him from showing a tremendous feel for pitching and limiting opposing hitters to a .238 Average Against in five starts. Over the last two weeks he has posted a 1.00 ERA, a 1.00WHIP and has a 12:3 K:BB ratio.

8) Kyle Allen, RHP, NYM – This week’s ‘Who’s That? Award’ winner, Allen was a potential Top 5 round pick in last June’s draft but lasted until the 24th round where the Mets lured him out of a commitment to North Carolina State with a $150,000 signing bonus. He limited Gulf Coast League (GCL) hitters to a .194 Average Against in his debut last season by using a highly polished three pitch repertoire. He is barely 19yo but the Mets thought enough of him to start him in the SAL this season. Thus far it’s looking like a good decision as Allen has posted a 0.68 ERA, 0.825 WHIP with a 17:6 K:BB ratio over his last three starts. His fastball currently tops out at barely 90mph, but this is an incredibly polished 19yo pitcher.


9) Troy Patton, LHP, BAL – Two years ago Patton was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, and he became the center piece in the deal that sent Miguel Tejada to the Astros. Unfortunately he had to have labrum surgery last March that ended his season and put his career in doubt. Making his return this season, expectations were low, but Patton is flashing his four-pitch repertoire and dominating ESL hitters. Patton has posted a 1.50 ERA, 0.833 WHIP and an 11:2 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks and appears ready to join Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman, David Hernandez and Nolan Reimold in providing the Orioles with a much needed talent infusion by mid-season.

10) Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego St – I could have gone with Jeanmar Gomez in this spot for the third straight week, as he has done nothing to diminish his ‘Hot’ start, but the future Washington National pitcher, Strasburg, nailed down the position with an unbelievable performance against Air Force on Friday night. He tossed a nine inning no-hitter, walking 2 and fanning 17. On the season, Strasburg is 11-0 with a 1.24ERA and a 164:17 K:BB ratio in 87 1/3 IP. He has established himself as the best college pitching prospect since Mark Prior and it isn’t hyperbole to suggest maybe of all-time.


The Nots –

1) Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, MIL – Jeffries looks like another in the long line of hard throwing first round Brewer draft busts in the mold of Mark Rogers, Mike Jones, J.M. Gold, Nick Neugebauer, etc. I understand you can’t teach an upper 90s fastball, but the number of ‘throwers’ who eventually get it and become ‘pitchers’ is a short list and walking more than 5 batters per 9IP, like Jeffress has done throughout his career, is a 100% recipe for disaster. He is walking more than he is striking out, he is walking more than a batter per IP on the season. 18.00 ERA, 3.857 WHIP with a 9:15 K:BB ratio over his last three starts.

2) Sean West, LHP, FLA – The Marlins are in desperate need for a rotation replacement for the injured Anibal Sanchez, but the cupboard appears to be rather bare as top candidates: West, Aaron Thompson and Bret Sinkbeil, all are struggling. West has a 12.96 ERA, 2.520 WHIP and an 8:9 BB:K ratio over the last two weeks and Southern League hitters are batting .281 against him on the season.

3) Wilmer Flores, SS, NYM – Flores opened eyes in a major way last year when he posted an .842 OPS in the Appalachian (APY) League last season—as a 16yo! So we will cut him some slack as he makes his full season debut in the SAL and won’t turn 18yo until August. Nonetheless Flores has a .573 OPS on the season and has posted a .156/.208/.178 over the last two weeks, while looking significantly overmatched.

Is Wilmer Flores stock tumbling?

4) Collin Balester, RHP, WSN – This week’s ‘Put a Fork in Him’ award goes to Balester, the Expos 2004 4th round pick. Balester’s lack of dominating stuff just hasn’t played well the further up the ladder he has climbed. An 8.76 ERA, 2.595 WHIP and a 8:6 K:BB ratio over his last three starts leaves him with a 6.35 ERA on the year. International League (IL) hitters are batting .347 against him on the season. While still just 22yo, and still plenty of time to evolve, there doesn’t seem to be enough projection in him to believe he can be successful at the big league level.

5) Sebastian Valle, C, PHI – The gap between the rookie leagues and the full season leagues are significant, hence the likes of Flores, Valle and Marte on this week’s ‘Not’ list. Players who have demonstrated a mastery of the rookie circuit just don’t have an easy way to make that jump and often end up overmatched in the first half of the full-season leagues. The 18yo Valle is victim of just that situation. A .132/.195/.158 over the last two weeks leaves Valle with a .536 OPS for the year.

6) Jefry Marte, 3B, NYM – As a 17yo in 2008, Marte lit up GCL pitchers to the tune of a .930 OPS. Unfortunately Marte is not finding SAL pitchers nearly as accommodating. I still like Marte and believe he was one of a handful of Rookie league players that served notice of their prospect legitimacy last season, so I expect this to be a short term problem, but a .173/.204/.269 over the last two weeks leaves Marte with .605 OPS for the season.

7) Bret Sinkbeil, RHP, FLA – Sinkbeil is the only ‘Not’ holdover from last week’s list. The Marlins would love to be giving him a shot at the rotation while Sanchez is out, but he is not missing nearly enough bats right now for that to be feasible. He’s posted a 7.82 ERA, 2.605 ERA and a 10:7 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks and PCL hitters are batting .390 against him on the year.

8) Greg Golson, OF, TEX – I’ve never been a big fan of the athletic, ‘toolsy’, production-deficient draft experiments that teams like the Phillies are so fond of. Greg Golson could be the poster child for these types of picks. In four season’s Golson, the Phillies first round pick from 2004, has never bettered his .755 OPS debut season. Finally tired of him, the Phillies unloaded him on the Rangers this off-season. The song remains the same….125/.192/.125 over the last two weeks.

9) Jeff Allison, RHP, FLA – Allison’s off-the-field troubles are well documented. It looked for a time last season like he might become another Josh Hamilton story. However, the feel good story faded as the season wore on and this season is beginning to look like a swan song for the 16th overall pick in 2003. Allision has a 11.00 ERA, 1.889 WHIP and a 2:2 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks in a Florida State League repeat performance.

10) Jason Knapp, RHP, PHI – Remember the old adage ‘what goes up, must come down?’ Meet Jason Knapp who, on April 21st, pitched arguably the minor’s best game this year and who gave up but 5ERs, 12 Hits and struck out 37 over his first four starts. Over his last two starts he has given up 10ERs, 13 Hits and struck out only 7. Knapp is still a very promising, very projectable, 18yo pitcher…but expect more ups and downs.