Showing posts with label Prospects. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Prospects. Show all posts

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Who’s Hot and Who’s Not Around the Minor Leagues: At 21yo Jays’ Snider Already a Pro

Snider hasn’t let an early season demotion derail him


When Travis Snider stumbled out of the gate this season, the Toronto Blue Jays were faced with a tough decision. They could let him try to work through his slump at the Major League level, or they could send Snider back down to the Minors to get things worked out and risk damaging the confidence of their best young hitter. The Jays chose the latter and, despite the early season struggles, Snider appears well on his way to establishing himself as one of the best young hitters in the game. For that, Snider heads this week’s list.

Hot Hitters –
1) Travis Snider, LF, TOR – Snider completed his rookie eligibility last season, but at 21yo, he is younger than all but three players on this list. After posting a .686 OPS for Toronto in the first month of the season, the Jays sent him down to Las Vegas. There he battled back problems and struggled to a .614 OPS in May before landing on the DL. Apparently recovered, Snider has handled himself like a true professional—never maligning his fate, and has posted a 1.244 OPS since returning. Over the last two weeks Snider has posted a .426/.500/.944 and appears ready to reclaim a spot in the Jays’ lineup any day now.

2) Josh Bell, 3B, LAD – The 22yo Bell has cut his strike out rate nearly in half this season and is putting together a breakout season. This made him one of the Dodgers’ most requested prospects at the deadline and lead to him being dealt to the Orioles in the Sherrill deal. Over the last two weeks Bell has put up a .469/.553/.813 and has a .880 OPS on the year.

3) Jason Heyward, OF, ATL – Last week Heyward topped this list and we discussed how amazing his Southern (SOL) League performance has been for a player his age. Still 4 days from his 20th birthday, Heyward hasn’t missed a beat since last week. Over the last two weeks he has posted a .467/.547/.778 and now has a 1.227 OPS through 27 SOL games. Heyward has clearly established himself as the Minor League’s best prospect and is looking like a future superstar. Expect him to see regular playing time in Atlanta by early 2010.

4) Allen Craig, 1B, STL – A former third basemen, the Cardinals thought enough of Craig’s defense that, despite being without Troy Glaus all season, they have left Craig and his 18 home runs in Memphis all year. I guess you could say that a prospect that is defensively limited to 1B in the Cardinal system is effectively ‘blocked’. At 25yo, Craig’s opportunities are fading, so he hopefully someone is taking notice of his noticed his .400/.466/.800 since the beginning of July.

5) Chris Carter, 1B, OAK – For being only 22yo, the Athletics first basemen has made the rounds in the Minor Leagues, currently playing with his third organization. Over the last two weeks, he has posted a .491/.563/.837, which only adds to what is turning out to be a ‘monster’ year. Through 106 Texas (TXL) League games, Carter has posted a .972 OPS with 34 doubles and 19 home runs.

6) Logan Morrison, 1B, FLA – In what has to be one of the weirder stat lines of the season, Morrison has walked 27 times over his last 18 games and now has a nearly 2:1 BB:K ratio on the year. Over the last two weeks Morrison has collected 17 of those walks on his way to a .263/.491/.473.

7) Carlos Santana, C, CLE – Victor Martinez is a top 5 catcher in the Major Leagues, but the Indians thought enough of Santana to deal Martinez to the Red Sox at the trade deadline. His plate discipline is among the best in the Minors, and he is slugging .531 in the Eastern (ESL) League. Over the last two week’s Santana has posted a .391/.451/.739 and now has a .934 OPS on the year.

8) Rymer Liriano, OF, SDP - This week’s ‘Who’s He? Award’ winner, the 18yo Liriano was signed by the Padres as a 16yo out of the Dominican Republic in 2007 for $300,000. He had an unspectacular debut season in the Dominican Summer (DSL) League in 2008, before the Padres brought him stateside. This year though, he has excelled, posting a .976 OPS through 32 Arizona (AZL) League games. Over the last two weeks, Liriano has posted a .333/.429/.778. Like many Latin American players, his future will be determined by his ability to learn to control the strike zone.

9) Zach Lutz, 3B, NYM – The Mets 5th round draft pick in 2007, has been limited by injuries to just 74 ABs in two seasons coming into 2009. The 23yo is trying to make up for lost time though, posting an .865 OPS through 285 Florida State (FSL) League ABs. Over the last two weeks he has gone .475/.523/.850.

10) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT – The 2008 2nd overall pick certainly has his doubters, as they question whether the thickly built Alvarez will be able to turn through the zone quick enough to ever make significant contact or whether he possesses the mobility to play anywhere but first base. Over the first three months of the season, it looked like the detractors might be right, as he posted only an .827 OPS in the Carolina (CAR) League as a 22yo, while fanning in 29% of his Plate Appearances. But the Calendar turned to July and the Bucs promoted Alvarez to Altoona, and he has become a different player, reducing his strikeout rate to 23% and boosting his average from .235 to .353. A .347/.467/.633 over the last two weeks, gives him a .958 OPS in the Eastern (ESL) League.


Hot Pitchers –
1) Dan Hudson, RHP, CHA – Hudson becomes only the third player all season to sit upon the top of one of these lists two weeks in a row. The 22yo Hudson has become one of the surprises of the 2009 season, and at the moment looks to be one of the steals of the 2008 draft, where the Whites Sox tabbed him in the 5th round after he had a disappointing Junior year. Hudson was solid in the Pioneer (PIO) League in his 2008 debut. He was phenomenal in the South Atlantic (SAL) League to open 2009. He limited CAR hitters to a .195 average against in 8 starts. And since his promotion to the SOL 9 starts ago, he has been unbelievable, limiting SOL hitters to a .188 average against while posting a 1.60 ERA. Working on a 29-inning scoreless streak, Hudson has posted a .550 WHIP with a 24:4 K:BB ratio.

2) Andrew Cashner, RHP, CHN – After posting a 5.85 ERA and a 23:19 BB:K ratio in 20 innings in 2008, many, this writer included, were questioning the Cubs first round selection. Few are questioning that pick anymore. Over the last 17 innings, Cashner has posted a 0.00 ERA, a 0.647 WHIP and a 17:5 K:BB ratio. His ERA through six SOL starts is 0.88.

3) Simon Castro, RHP, SDP – Castro is a huge 20yo, that is rapidly becoming one of the Midwest (MWL) League’s most intimidating pitchers. Working predominantly off of a mid-90s fastball, Castro is overpowering MWL hitters. Over the last two weeks, he has posted a 0.60 ERA, a 0.467 WHIP and a 23:1 K:BB ratio, giving him a 2.78 ERA since the beginning of June. It remains to be seen whether his secondary offerings will improve enough to make him a long-term rotation presence, but there is certainly Major League potential here.

4) Jose Ortegano, LHP, ATL – The lightly regarded left-hander entered the 2009 season with a 2.91 ERA…despite being young for his level of competition at each stop. Yet, because he too lacks a dominating fastball, you will have to search hard to find Ortegano on any prospect list. After posting a 3.49 ERA as a 21yo in the CAR, the Braves have moved him to the SOL. In his first two SOL starts, Ortegano has a 0.69 ERA, a 0.846 WHIP, with a 13:2 K:BB ratio.

5) Henderson Alvarez, RHP, TOR – Quickly becoming one of the Midwest (MWL) League’s most dominating pitchers, the 19yo Alvarez has a 2.18 ERA since the beginning of July. Over the last two weeks, Alvarez has a 1.20 ERA, a .933 WHIP, and a 14:1 K:BB ratio.

6) Christian Friedrich, LHP, COL – We felt Friedrich was the second best college pitcher available in the 2008 draft, but attending Eastern Kentucky kept him a bit under the radar screen entering the season. Friedrich dominated SAL hitters, fanning 66 in 45 IP. Going to the CAL, we thought he would face a stiffer challenge. So far, not so much. Friedrich hasn’t allowed more than 1 earned run in a game since June 10, and now has a 1.80 ERA in the hitter friendly California (CAL) League. Over the last two weeks he has put up a, 0.82 ERA, a 0.818 WHIP, with a 22:3 K:BB ratio. CAL hitters are batting .180 against him.

7) Wade Miley, LHP, ARZ – The 22yo Miley has been somewhat disappointing since the Diamondbacks made him a first round pick in the 2008 draft. After a 4.91 ERA in his 2008 debut, Miley posted a 4.33 ERA through June in the MWL. More is expected of a 22yo at that level, and Miley is showing signs of turning things around, allowing only 1 ER through his last three starts. Over that time Miley has a 0.417 WHIP, with a 11:2 K:BB ratio.

8) Wilmer Font, RHP, TEX – The Rangers were expecting big things from Font in 2008, but his season lasted all of 4 innings due to nagging injuries. The 19yo is healthy again and making MWL hitters pay for it. Over the last two weeks, Font has posted a 2.70 ERA, a 0.800 WHIP, with a 14:3 K:BB ratio. At 6’4”, 210 lbs, Font looks to add a couple of mph to his mid-90s fastball. There is significant upside here and his development of better command and refinement of his secondary offerings will determine his fate.

9) Casey Crosby, LHP, DET – The Tigers top prospect and arguably the top pitching prospect in the MWL, Crosby has been on a tremendous roll since the middle of June (1.46 ERA). Over the last two weeks, Crosby has posted a 0.96 ERA, a 0.750 ERA, and a 13:1 K:BB ratio. On the year MWL hitters are batting .204 against him and he has 107 strikeouts in 90 IP.

10) Scott Mathieson, RHP, PHI – After 2 Tommy John surgeries, Mathieson’s career was all but written off. The Phillies released and then resigned him and are in the process of making a reliever out of him. Albeit brief, the results have been spectacular thus far, as Mathieson has not allowed an earned run through his first 11 appearances, while fanning 20 in 16 innings. If he can prove that he is healthy, Mathieson could find himself in the Phillies’ bullpen in September.

The Nots –
1) Andrew Brackman, RHP, NYY – Easily one of the most disappointing stories of 2009, Brackman has a 1-11 record with a 6.70 ERA—as a 23yo in the SAL. Those are ‘on your way out baseball’ numbers, not numbers befitting a former first round draft pick, who was at one time considered the second best arm available in the 2007 draft. Over the last two weeks, Brackman has posted a 15.19 ERA, a 3.000 WHIP, with a 9:7 K:BB ratio. That performance earns him a top of the ‘Nots’ repeat performance.

2) Chris Valaika, SS, CIN – There were many that thought that Valaika would end up as the Reds’ everyday SS by the end of this season. Now they are wondering if he has enough tools to be an everyday player in the Big Leagues. A .083/.083/.104 over the last two weeks has dropped the 23yo’s OPS to .536 on the year. He isn’t really a SS at the next level, and there are serious questions as to how much he will hit.

3) Joshua Fields, RHP, SEA – The unfortunate part of achieving Major League success for a Minor League prospect is that part of success is dependent on opportunity that is sometimes outside of one’s control. For Fields, there is significant near-term opportunity available for him that he just isn’t capitalizing on right now. A 15.88 ERA, 3.000 WHIP, with a 6:5 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves Fields with a 6.48 ERA on the year.

4) Mat Gamel, 3B, MIL – After a disappointing stint in Milwaukee, the 23yo Gamel found himself back in Nashville where he has put up solid, yet unspectacular numbers. A .109/.226/.130 over the last two weeks, leaves Gamel’s OPS at .743 on the year. With a suspect glove, if Gamel doesn’t have a spectacular bat, then his future is murky.

5) Adrian Cardenas, 2B, OAK – The 21yo Cardenas earned himself a promotion to AAA by posting a .838 OPS in the Texas (TXL) League. After 20 games and a .450 OPS, it is beginning to look like it is a little too much, too soon. Cardenas has posted a .106/.106/.170 over the last two weeks.

6) Barry Enright, RHP, ARZ – The 23yo Enright was the Diamondbacks’ second round pick in 2007. Entering the season, he looked like he could become a back-of-the rotation innings eater. Another season, another solid but unspectacular result (4.38 ERA, .295 average against) may leave more questions than answers. We worry about a lack of a dominant out pitch and the lack of remaining upside projection. Over the last two weeks, Enright has posted a 12.60 ERA, a 2.900 WHIP and a 7:3 K:BB ratio.

7) Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS – No other elite level prospect has been as disappointing this season as has Anderson. That being said, he is still just 21yo and is competing at AA where his .700 OPS is nearly .260 points lower than his 2008 performance. More disturbing is his seemingly AWOL power stroke. Anderson has always had a propensity to strikeout (roughly 25% K rate) and improving that will be required to be successful as he moves up. No one is writing him off at this point, but his season has to be categorized as disturbing. A .113/.190/.151 over the last two weeks.

8) Oscar Tejeda, SS, BOS – Signed out of the Dominican Republic as one of the highest bonused Latin American 16yos in 2006, Tejeda has yet, offensively, to live up to expectations, as he entered 2009 with a career OPS of .685. Making a return trip to the SAL, his .612 OPS is actually slightly worse than it was in his first go round. Over the last two weeks, Tejeda has posted a .094/.121/.125.

9) Nick Green, RHP, LAA – The Angels returned Green to the Pacific Coast (PCL) League this year, where the results didn’t change much from 2008. In over 200 PCL innings, opposing hitters are batting nearly .300 against him. Over the last two weeks, Green has posted a 11.25 ERA and a 1.875 WHIP, earning himself a demotion to the SOL. At 24yo, Green needs to get things figured out in a hurry, or his next stop may be out of the game.

10) Ryan Mount, 2B, LAA – The Angels’ second round pick in 2005, Mount entered the season coming off of his best season as a pro, where he posted an .849 OPS in the CAL. This season, TXL pitchers have not been as accommodating, as Mount’s .125/.222/.150 over his last 45 ABs leaves his OPS at .617 on the year. Nagging injuries have troubled Mount throughout his career, as he has never appeared in more than 85 games in any season, and won’t this year either. Still only 22yo, there is plenty of time to get things figured out, but 2009 has definitely been a step backward.

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Who’s Hot and Who’s Not Around the Minor Leagues: Braves’ Heyward Now Minor’s Best


Heyward is putting up numbers for a 19yo in AA that haven't been seen in more than a decade

When Matt Wieters and David Price were called up within a week of each other, at the end of May, the question became ‘who is now the best prospect in the Minor Leagues?’ Regular readers will recall that I listed 10 players who were in contention for that title, stating that it was a real toss-up among the ten. In a coin flip, I gave the edge to Jarrod Parker over Jason Heyward and Madison Bumgarner. Two months later, a clear #1 has emerged from the group, as Jason Heyward is putting up nearly unimaginable numbers in the Southern (SOL) League. Through his first 20 SOL games, Heyward has posted a 1.295 OPS—as a 19yo. Over the last 20 years, only 17 players have had 100 or more ABs in the SOL as a 19yo or younger. Only three of those have posted an OPS higher than .900…only 4 have even posted an .800 OPS. In fact, no 19yo or 20yo has hit .900 since 19yo Delmon Young hit .968 in 2005. One has to go all the way back to 1996, when another 19yo, Braves OF prospect, Andruw Jones, put together a 1.107 OPS, to even come close to the start Heyward is putting together for the Mississippi Braves. For that, Jason Heyward tops this week’s Hot List.

Hot Hitters –

1) Jason Heyward, OF, ATL – Heyward has clearly established himself as the Minor League’s best prospect with his 1.295 OPS through his first 20 SOL games. Over the last two weeks, he is .500/.577/.864 and looking like a future superstar. Heyward should see regular playing time in Atlanta by early 2010.

2) Carlos Santana, C, CLE – Victor Martinez is a top 5 catcher in the Major Leagues, but the Indians think enough of Santana to be actively shopping Martinez. Santana’s defense has made huge strides this season. His plate discipline is among the best in the Minors. And he is slugging .536 in the Eastern (ESL) League. Santana homered in four straight games this past week and posting a .343/.410/.857 over the last two weeks leaves him with a .935 OPS on the year.

3) Josh Bell, 3B, LAD – The 22yo Bell has cut his strike out rate nearly in half this season and is putting together a breakout season in the SOL. Credit an improved attitude and approach to the game for the changes that may finally allow him to tap into all of that potential. A .452/.540/.810 over the last two weeks gives him a .893 OPS for the season.

4) Brandon Allen, 1B, ARZ – Allen seems extremely comfortable in his Reno surroundings, following his trade for RP, Tony Pena. The struggles of May and June appear to be behind him as he has posted a .319/.407/.809 over the last two weeks and a 1.252 since being dealt to the Diamondbacks.

5) Ike Davis, 1B, NYM – Davis’ 2009 season is a great illustration as to why one shouldn’t put too much stock in a player’s post-draft debut, as Davis posted a .652 in his 2008 New York-Penn (NYP) debut and didn’t hit a single home run in 215 ABs. After going .388/.444/.714 over his last 55 PA’s, Davis now has a .929 OPS, with 7 home runs in 127 Eastern (ESL) League ABs.

6) Gabriel Noriega, SS, SEA – Signed to one of the highest bonuses ($800,000) given to a player from Venezuela in 2007, Noriega is the best defensive SS in the Mariner’s system, and one of the better defensive shortstops in the minor leagues. His ceiling is limited only by his ability to hit. In a return trip to the Appalachian (APY) League that hasn’t seemed to be much of a problem. A .513/.558/.846 over the last two weeks gives him a .950 OPS for the year.

7) Jon Gaston, OF, HOU – When a player is as hot as Gaston has been for the last month, it is difficult to continue the mantra that he really isn’t a Major League prospect. Nonetheless, that is exactly where we find ourselves in describing Gaston. He has severe defensive limitations, has huge contact problems (26% strikeout rate), is a bit old for a prospect in the California (CAL) League, and has an OPS that is .270 points lower away from Lancaster. Yet, over the last two weeks, Gaston has posted a .277/424/.872 with 7HRs, including back-to-back 2 HR games, and certainly deserves a place on this list. While we don’t expect his ‘other-wordly’ numbers to continue once he leaves the CAL, the Jethawk fans are certainly enjoying them.

8) Allen Craig, 1B, STL – A former third basemen, the Cardinals thought enough of Craig’s defense that, despite being without Troy Glaus all season, they have left Craig and his 17 home runs in Memphis all year. I guess you could say that a prospect that is defensively limited to 1B in the Cardinal system is effectively ‘blocked’. At 25yo, Craig’s opportunities are fading, so he hopes someone has noticed his .453/.500/1.038, with 9 HRs, over his last 60 PA’s.

9) Tyson Gillies, CF, SEA – Gillies is on a list with Derek Norris and teammate Alex Liddi, of position players that have put themselves on the radar screen with huge 2009 seasons. He has all of the prototypical tools that one looks for in a top of the order CF. The last two weeks have seen Gillies post a 448/.492/.569, giving him a .922 OPS for the year, and giving the Mariners a good idea of who is there future CF.

10) Dayan Viciedo, 3B, CHA – Watching Cuban players adjust to American baseball over the last few years has caused me to believe in two important tenants: 1) They tend to be notoriously slow starters—especially until the weather warms and 2) They require one-half to one-full season to get acclimated. Viciedo’s OPS has gone from .518 in April, to .711 in May, to .724 in June, and .769 in July, with a .381/.395/.571 over the last two weeks. What’s more is that his defense at 3B has been surprisingly adequate. Maybe even more impressive is that his strikeout rate was over 22% for the first two months of the season and just a bit over 11% for the last two. Remember he is still just 19yo and is playing in AA. A strong finish to the season could lead to Gordon Beckham sliding over to 2B, making room for Viciedo at 3B to begin 2010.


Hot Pitchers –

1) Dan Hudson, RHP, CHA – When the White Sox’s 5th round pick from the 2008 draft fanned 90 Pioneer (PIO) League batters in 70 IP in his debut, we took notice, but chalked it up to a 21yo being in a Rookie League. When Hudson opened up the South Atlantic (SAL) League this year with a 1.23 ERA we were intrigued. After opposing hitters batted .195 against him in 8 Carolina (CAR) League starts, we felt he had potential, but after the 22yo has posted a 2.03 ERA in 7 SOL starts…we believe. Hudson has a low-90s fastball, with late movement, that befuddles left-handed hitters. His secondary offerings are improving, and he has a frame that should allow him to be a mid-rotation innings eater. Hudson is working on a 16-inning scoreless streak, in which he has posted a 0.571 WHIP and a 13:1 K:BB ratio, and now has a 2.43 ERA on the season.

2) Christian Friedrich, LHP – We felt Friedrich was the second best college pitcher available in the 2008 draft, but attending Eastern Kentucky kept him a bit under the radar screen entering the season. Friedrich dominated SAL hitters, fanning 66 in 45 IP. Going to the CAL, we thought he would face a stiffer challenge. So far, not so much. Friedrich is working on an 11 inning scoreless streak where he has posted a 0.750 WHIP and a 17:4 K:BB ratio. CAL hitters are batting only .177 against him and he now has a 1.98 ERA on the season.

3) Simon Castro, RHP, SDP – Castro is a huge 20yo, that is rapidly becoming one of the Midwest (MWL) League’s most intimidating pitchers. Working predominantly off of a mid-90s fastball, Castro is overpowering MWL hitters. Over the last two weeks, he has posted a 1.80 ERA, a 0.467 WHIP and a 24:2 K:BB ratio. It remains to be seen whether his secondary offerings will improve enough to make him a long-term rotation presence, but there is certainly Major League potential here.

4) Drew Storen, RHP, WSN – After a standout career at Stanford, Storen entered June’s draft as the consensus top closer available. It was expected that he would go somewhere in the late first round/supplemental, but the Nationals caught a lot of people by surprise when they used their compensatory pick, for their failure to sign Aaron Crowe the year before, to select the 21yo right-hander. Storen has not been scored upon in 8 straight appearances. During that stretch he has retired 34 of 35 batters he has faced—23 by strike out.

5) Casey Crosby, LHP, DET – Casey was named MWL pitcher of the week last week, and has clearly established himself as the Tigers top prospect. Over his last three starts, Crosby has posted a 2.08 ERA, a 0.692 WHIP, with a 17:4 K:BB ratio. The 21yo has now fanned 101 MWL batters in 86 innings. Opposing hitters are batting .203 against him, and he quite possibly may be the best pitching prospect in the league.

6) Aneury Rodriguez, RHP, TBR - Following his move to the Rays in the Jason Hammel deal, Rodriguez struggled mightily. At the end of June, Rodriguez’s ERA stood at 6.27. Working on a 13-inning scoreless streak, where he has posted a 0.474 WHIP and a 12:4 K:BB ratio, Rodriguez has lowered his season ERA to 5.23.

7) Craig Kimbrel, RHP, ATL – Quick…who has the best strikeout rate in the Minor Leagues? That’s right, it’s the Braves’ Kimbrel at 15.7 strikeouts per 9 IP. Kimbrel struggled a bit after his promotion to Myrtle Beach, but he seems to have gotten things figured out, as he has allowed only 1 run on two hits over his last nine outings. Over the last two weeks, he has a 1.29 ERA, a 0.857 WHIP and a 16:2 K:BB ratio.

8) Tyler Clippard, RHP, WSN – The 24yo Clippard may be one of the game’s least appreciated pitchers. Coming into the year, in six minor league seasons, predominantly as a starter, Clippard had a 3.73 ERA, with more strikeouts than IP, while generally being young for his level of competition at each stop. Yet, because he lacks a dominating fastball, he has never really been given a Big League shot. The Nationals have moved him to the bullpen this year where he has been absolutely lights out. A 0.92 ERA in 39 Minor League IP and a 1.93 ERA in 19 Major League IP. Over the last two weeks, Clippard has posted a 0.77 ERA, a 0.771 WHIP, with a 17:5 K:BB ratio.

9) Jose Ortegano, LHP, ATL – Speaking of pitchers that get no respect, in 5 Minor League seasons, Ortegano has posted a 2.91 ERA…despite being young for his level of competition at each stop. Yet, because he too lacks a dominating fastball, you will have to search hard to find Ortegano on any prospect list. After posting a 3.49 ERA as a 21yo in the CAR, the Braves have moved him to the SOL where he tossed 7 innings of 1-run ball in his debut on Tuesday night. Opposing hitters are batting .219 against him on the year and once he continues to shut down AA hitters, the ‘experts’ will have to take notice.

10) Junichi Tazawa, RHP, BOS - Perhaps the most significant International signing of 2008, Tazawa has been everything that the Red Sox had hoped for when they gave him a $1.8 million bonus. After posting a 1.06 ERA, a 0.706 WHIP with a 12:1 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, Tazawa has a 2.51 ERA on the year. The 23yo should figure prominently into Boston’s plans in 2010.

The Nots –

1) Andrew Brackman, RHP, NYY – Easily one of the most disappointing stories of 2009, Brackman has a 1-11 record with a 6.72 ERA—as a 23yo in the SAL. Those are ‘on your way out baseball’ numbers, not numbers befitting a former first round draft pick, who was at one time considered the second best arm available in the 2007 draft. Over the last two weeks, Brackman has posted a 14.73 ERA, a 2.727 WHIP, with a 3:8 K:BB ratio.

2) Kevin Mulvey, RHP, MIN – That Johan Santana trade keeps looking worse and worse for the Twins. Guerra hasn’t been anything close to what the Twins believed they were getting. At 26yo, Phil Humber looks like a 4A player, and Mulvey looks like a back of the rotation guy at best. Over the last two weeks, Mulvey has posted a 16.20 ERA, a 2.550 WHIP, with a 7:3 K:BB ratio…leaving his ERA at 4.40 on the season.

3) Carmen Angelini, SS, NYY – Signed for a record $1 million bonus, as a 10th round pick, in 2007. It seemed like a strange move, given they were signing a player with a questionable bat, whose best tool was his grit. Angelini hasn’t changed any opinions in two years. A .048/.091/.048 over his last two weeks leaves him with a .470 OPS on the year.

4) Colby Rasmus, OF, STL - Though technically not a prospect, Rasmus is demonstrating that it isn’t just talented young pitchers that experience their ups and downs as they get acclimated to the Major Leagues. Over the last two weeks, Rasmus has gone .067/.125/.067 and now has gone 52 ABs since hitting an extra base hit. With Holliday on board, if Ankiel gets hot Rasmus could find himself back in Memphis.

5) Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, MIN – After breezing through the FSL with a 1.32 ERA and an astonishing 4.48 GO/AO ratio, Gutierrez has found ESL hitters less susceptible to his often ‘fringy’ offerings. Over the last two weeks, Gutierrez has a 12.71 ERA, a 2.471 WHIP and a 4:5 K:BB ratio, leaving his ESL ERA at 7.51 through 14 appearances.

6) Billy Rowell, OF, BAL – It has been all downhill for Rowell since his stellar debut in 2006. The former first round pick has gone 0.074/.107/.111 over the last two weeks and now is sitting at a .632 OPS for the year. He is still only 20yo, so there is still plenty of time to get things back on track, but the Orioles need to return him to Frederick for a repeat performance in 2010.

7) Joshua Fields, RHP, SEA – The unfortunate part of achieving Major League success for a Minor League prospect is that part of success is dependent on opportunity that is sometimes outside of one’s control. For Fields, there is significant near-term opportunity available for him that he just isn’t capitalizing on right now. A 12.60 ERA, 3.000 WHIP, with a 4:5 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves Fields with a 5.90 ERA on the year.

8) Pete Kozma, SS, STL – The Cardinals 1st round pick in 2007, Kozma has yet to post playable offensive numbers in three professional seasons. A .114/.170/.114 over the last two weeks and 70 ABs without an extra base hit, leaves Kozma with a .640 OPS for 2009.

9) Vance Worley, RHP, PHI – Worley got off to a fast start this season, that left him with a 3.12 ERA at the end of May. Things haven’t gone so well since then. A 19.96 ERA, with a 2.609 WHIP over the last two weeks has his ERA up to 5.38 on the year.

10) Chris Valaika, SS, CIN – There were many that thought that Valaika would end up as the Reds’ everyday SS by the end of this season. Now they are wondering if he has enough tools to be an everyday player in the Big Leagues. A .100/.151/.200 over the last two weeks has dropped the 23yo’s OPS to .559 on the year. He isn’t really a SS at the next level, and there are serious questions as to how much he will hit.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Fenst's Farm Report


Welcome to the first installment of SportsJudge.com’s newest article, Fenst's Farm Report. Here, you’ll uncover the action that is taking place in the minor leagues; the hitting, the pitching, and the top prospects to watch carefully, because these are the guys that you will count on to shape your fantasy squad in the future.

There are already many top prospects starting up in the majors that you should keep an eye on, such as Oakland pitchers Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill. Young studs Colby Rasmus, Elvis Andrus, Travis Snider, Rick Porcello, Cameron Maybin and Dexter Fowler are all on major league rosters as well. Even with all of these young players already up in the majors, though, there remains plenty to pay attention to down on the farm. With the season just getting underway, I will highlight some of the top prospects that are waiting for their chance to impact their major league organization as well as your fantasy team.


David Price (SP- Tampa Bay)

Price has been on the radar ever since he was drafted first overall in the ’07 draft out of Vanderbilt. He proved during his September call-up at the end of last season and throughout the ’08 playoffs that he is the real deal. He had a 1.93 ERA with 12 strikeouts in 14 innings in September, and was just as dominant in the post-season. Look for Price to get the call-up very soon after receiving the Longoria treatment this year starting in the minors. He has already demonstrated that he is major league ready and should supplant Jeff Niemann in the Rays rotation in the near future. Price was a mid-round draft pick, but may be undervalued with his start in the minors. Jump on him quick if possible, and expect to reap the rewards for the remainder of the season.

Matt Wieters (C- Baltimore)

Wieters is a rare talent in what is considered by far the weakest position in fantasy baseball. After his call-up – which will be sooner rather than later – he will already be considered to be in the upper echelon of catchers. I am already on the bandwagon, as I have stashed him away in every league I could. You may think it is crazy to value a player this much before a major league at bat, but look at Longoria last season. Expect a .280+ avg. and 15+ homers even though he will be getting a late start to the season. Wieters hit .355 with 27 home runs in 2 leagues in the minors last season. He also shows great plate discipline and has a fantastic approach at the plate for such a young player (more walks than strikeouts last year).

Gordon Beckham (SS/2B- Chicago {AL})

Beckham was the 8th pick in the 2008 First Year Player Draft by the Chicago White Sox. It is very rare that a player makes it on an opening day roster the year following their draft (which is what Beckham was trying to do this year) but he came extremely close. Even with Chris Getz winning the starting job in Chicago, it is hardly locked in and Beckham could see a lot of time up in the majors this season. If he, does expect solid numbers from him including some decent pop from the second base position (tied for the DIV-1 NCAA lead with 28 homers during his last year at Georgia). He will also have shortstop eligibility, which is a huge bonus considering both positions are quite weak this season. In just 22 at-bats, Beckham is tearing the cover off the ball in AA after a very good campaign in the South Atlantic League (Low A) last season. He might not have the impact of Wieters or Price, but make sure he is on your radar if he does get the call.

Tommy Hanson (SP- Atlanta)

This young strikeout machine is waiting in the wings to take over a rotation spot in Atlanta. In two starts so far this young season, he has 17 strikeouts and an ERA under 1 for Atlanta’s AAA affiliate- Gwinnett. Hanson had over 160 K’s in 138 innings between two levels last year (high-A and AA). With Glavine also contemplating retirement, the move to Hanson could be right around the corner. If Hanson can use his tools effectively at the next level, he is a future ace. As for this season I could easily see him posting a mid 3 ERA and close to a strikeout per inning. Keep an eye on this situation as it could change quickly. If he is sitting in free agency in deep leagues he makes a better option to fill out your roster than a back-end-of-the-rotation starter without much upside. Keep him on your watch list.

Justin Smoak (1B- Rangers)

Smoak was the Rangers’ first round pick in the ’08 First Year Player Draft (11th overall). He has drawn many comparisons to former Rangers slugger Mark Teixeira and had 63 home runs in his three-year career at South Carolina. Just like Teixeira, Smoak is a switch-hitter with power to all fields and the first baseman of the future for the Rangers. The issue he is dealing with now is the logjam of infielders in front of him in the Rangers organization. They have Hank Blalock and young slugger Chris Davis that both will spend some time at first base this year. Both players can play third base, but longtime shortstop Michael Young has slid over to third this year to make room for prospect Elvis Andrus. If Smoak does get some time up in the majors this year expect plus power numbers, especially in that lineup and the “Bandbox in Arlington.”

As with all SportsJudge articles, feel free to comment with any opinions or questions and stay tuned for the next installment of the new and improved Down on the Farm!