The Buzz Around The Bullpen: Corey Hart Wears His Sunglasses At Night

Welcome back to another edition of the “Buzz Around the Bullpen”. I hope you enjoyed our fantasy positional analysis which I concluded last week with the Starting Pitchers. By this time, many of you have already drafted your team and are now anxious for the start of the 2009 season. For those of you who are still waiting for draft day, please be sure to check out our positional breakdown.

Regardless of whether you’ve already drafted your team or not, I figured a useful article today would be about some players that are making some noise in Spring Training. While I know Spring Training is not always the best indicator of the upcoming season, I’ve found that trends that begin in Spring Training often do carryover into the regular season. With that being said, today I’m going to focus on a player at each position that is opening some eyes in Spring Training. While they may not merit an immediate waiver move or even a late-round pick, it’s never too early to try and grab this year’s Nate McLouth. Let’s get started and take it right around the horn.

Starting Pitcher

Sean Marshall (SP, Chicago Cubs): Marshall finds himself in a battle with Aaron Heilman for the fifth spot in the Cubs starting rotation. Both have pitched well in the spring but I expect Marshall to get the call to the rotation. He pitches for what should be a great team this season and his WHIP has decreased each year. Additionally, in most leagues he is still listed as a relief pitcher and because of that, you might be able to steal some starts from your reliever position.

Relief Pitcher

Manny Corpas (RP, Colorado Rockies): Much to the dismay of Rockies management, it seems as though Corpas has already pulled away as the favorite to serve as the Rockies closer. I hate to ever criticize a move by a GM but I saw this one coming a mile away. When healthy, Huston Street is an above average closer. The problem is that he hasn’t been able to stay healthy for several years now. Even if Street does win the job out of Spring Training, it’s unfortunately only a matter of time before he finds himself on the DL again.

Catcher

Pablo Sandoval (C, San Francisco Giants): If you’re like SportsJudge founder Marc Edelman and have already done your homework, you’ll realize that Yahoo Sports is one of the few fantasy outlets that are still allowing Sandoval to have catcher eligibility. If you’re lucky enough to have Sandoval as your backstop, you are going to be able to steal some great numbers from the catcher position. Sandoval has picked up right where he left off in ’08 with an impressive Spring Training average. The power will continue to come but for right now, Sandoval is definitely a candidate to hit somewhere around 14-16 HRs.

First Base

Kendry Morales (1B, LAA): Morales enters the ’09 season as the Angels’ starting First Baseman. He has been very mediocre in the past but he may flourish as an everyday player. Throughout his minor-league career, he had above average power numbers and it may only be a matter of time before they translate to the big leagues. Right now he’s not worth a waiver move but be sure to keep an eye on him. As a side note, you may have to search for Morales as an outfielder because he has not obtained 1B eligibility just yet.

Second Base

Alexi Casilla (2B, MIN): There are reports that Casilla may still be involved in a platoon situation at 2nd base so do some research before you use a draft pick or a waiver move on him. The battle between he and Brendan Harris could carryover into the season but if Casilla continues to stay hot, he may not leave the Twins coachng staff with much of a decision. Because he is still very much unproven, you may want to wait till the regular season to take any action on Alexi.

Third Base

Andy LaRoche (3B, Pittsburgh Pirates): Just when you thought we might get through an article without some Pittsburgh favoritism, I had to bring up Andy LaRoche. LaRoche enters the ’09 season as the Buccos starting third baseman after finishing last season hitting a dismal .152 with Pittsburgh. The Pirates have some nice third base prospects in Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez but LaRoche himself was a heralded prospect at one time. LaRoche claims he is finally healthy heading into this season and it might finally be the time for LaRoche to break out with a 15-20 homerun season. If he continues to stay hot into April, he might be worth a waiver wire move depending on your needs.

Shortstop

Khalil Greene (SS, STL): As I did the research for this article, one thing became extremely clear to me. Khalil Greene might be one of the most polarizing fantasy players in MLB. On one side, his critics argue that he peaked at Clemson and he’ll never be the prospect he was expected to be. They also argue that his career batting average tells you everything you need to know about him. To the contrary, some believe that Greene was burdened by a tough hitter’s park in San Diego and the change of scenery to an organization like the Cards will be beneficial to Greene. If Spring Training means anything, then put me somewhere in that second group of people. Regardless of where you stand in this debate, I do believe one thing is clear. Greene is not going to make or break your fantasy season but if you did lose out on the top 5-7 shortstops, Greene might be a nice sleeper pick later in your draft.

Outfielder

Corey Hart (OF, MIL): Hart came into last season as a player that was predicted to break out and become a top 10 fantasy outfielder. Instead, Hart’s delivered an ’08 season that left his owners wanting more. While he did increase his RBI output, his homerun numbers decreased and his batting average took a significant hit down to .268. It seems as though he took last season to “heart” because reports out of Spring Training are that he is bigger than ever because of an intense off-season workout program. Additionally, Hart has been dominating pitching this spring and I predict that this will be the year that Hart breaks out. If you haven’t drafted yet this season, don’t be afraid to take Hart. If you have drafted, it might be a good idea to throw some trade offers towards the team that owns Hart. Most owners don’t place too much emphasis on Spring Training success and they still may be questioning him from his disappointing '08 campaign. I wouldn’t wait too much longer because after a couple of April homeruns, you’re not going to be able to pry Hart out of their hands.

As with any SportsJudge articles, please feel free to post any questions or comments. Until next time, keep your ears open for the Buzz Around the Bullpen.

The Buzz Around The Bullpen: Fantasy Positional Preview: Starting Pitchers

[Editor’s note: With the fantasy baseball season fast approaching, SportsJudge continues its preseason positional preview. Please be sure to check back every Tuesday at 9 a.m. for a weekly positional analysis that will lead you right into your fantasy draft.]

Other Fantasy Positional Previews:

1. Outfield
2. First Base
3. Second Base
4. Shortstop
5. Third Base
6. Catchers

7. Relief Pitchers

Welcome back to another edition of “The Buzz Around the Bullpen.” One more week of Spring Training and one more week of drama and news surrounding newly-signed Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Manny Ramirez. This time it came from an Esquire magazine article where Boston closer Jonathan Papelbon called Manny Ramirez a "cancer" to the clubhouse during his last days in Boston. While I don't think I need to expound on how I truly feel about Manny, I will say it was out of line for Papelbon to "air the clubhouse's dirty laundry" in Esquire magazine.

For one, in some perverted, egotistical way, I believe this is exactly what Manny wants to hear. As we've seen by his arrogance to not "settle" for $41 million dollars during the largest economic downturn since the Great Depression, Manny is concerned with one person and/or thing. Himself. By Papelbon speaking about Manny, he is acknowledging he is still in the minds of some of his former Red Sox teammates and I believe this is music to Manny's ears.

Secondly, regardless of the situation, I've never been a fan of players publicizing clubhouse drama. It's only human nature for there to be drama and dissent in the clubhouse. After all, these guys spend as much, if not more time with their teammates as they do with their own families. It is only a matter of time before some drama arises. With that being said, Papelbon should have taken the high road and simply said that "it was in the best interest for both parties to go their seperate ways." Unfortunately, it seems likes Papelbon's emotions got the best of him. And in case you have not noticed, Papelbon is kind of an emotional, charasmatic guy.

For right now, let’s get back to some preseason projections. Last week we focused on Relief Pitchers and today we will move to the workhorses. In previous positional previews, I've provided you with an in-depth analysis of each player. However, because of the sheer number of starting pitchers, I'm only going to provide a sentence or two which will hopefully explain my ranking. Let’s talk about some Starting Pitchers.

Studs

1. Johan Santana (NYM): While some are worried about his move to a new park, I'm pretty sure Johan could get people out on my little league field. Until someone can out-pitch this guy on a consistent basis, he has to be the consensus number one.

2. Tim Lincecum (SF): His crazy delivery makes him extremely deceptive and difficult to pick-up. Because of his delivery, even the after the 10th time you've faced him, you still have trouble seeing where that ball is coming from. I look for another year of dominance over NL hitters.

3. C.C. Sabathia (NYY): He was unreal down the stretch last year for the Brew Crew. This guy has the character and personality that won't be affected by the lights and media of New York City. Add that with a much more explosive offense on his side and Sabathia is a legitimate 20-game winner in '09.

4. Roy Halladay (TOR): A complete game and innings monster. Somehow he quietly puts up stud numbers year in and year out and does not get the recognition he deserves. But don't let that stop you from taking him as your number one starter.

5. Cole Hamels (PHI): Hamels was impressive on baseball's biggest stage last fall. You can't measure how much that will do for his confidence and growth as an elite pitcher. The Phils should be very good again and I see Hamels even snagging a couple more wins that last year (14).

6. Brandon Webb (ARI): The great thing about Webb is even when his other stuff is mediocre, his sinker is dominant enough to win him games. He is a ground ball machine and that will only continue in '09. However, I do see a decrease in his games won. Look for around 16-18 wins. And remember, it's never a bad thing when you decrease your games won and still finish with 17.

7. Jake Peavy (SD): Speaking of games won, Peavy would be among the top 3-5 fantasy pitchers if he was on a better team. Only in San Diego can you have a 2.85 ERA over 175 innings and only win 10 games. His numbers are too good to ignore though.

8. Dan Haren (ARI): Option 1(b) in Arizona is not a bad fall back option to lead your pitching staff. He continues to dominant and his K/9 continues rise each year. I look for Haren to match Webb in wins this year with somewhere around 16-18.

9. Francisco Liriano (MIN): It wasn't too long ago that Liriano was matching Johan Santana start for start in Minnesota. He showed glimpses of dominance in '08 and every healthy month that passes is good news for Liriano. He's on the cusp of being 100% again and that is nothing but bad news for AL hitters.

10. Roy Oswalt (HOU): Oswalt was one of the most vocal players this off-season speaking out against steroids. In '09, I expect Oswalt to get back to letting his pitching do the talking. He's a bulldog and I don't think he was too happy about his mediocre numbers last year.

11. John Lackey (LAA): In '09 I predict that Lackey will get back to the consistent numbers he has put up throughout his career. Don't underestimate how much his early season injury affected his rhythm and throwing program last year.

12. James Shields (TB): Shields was really good way before the Rays knew they were any good. Now with some confidence and a ton of post-season experience, the Rays will be a much better team in '09. That can only mean good things for a guy that has put up consistent impressive numbers since his arrival to the big leagues.

13. Chad Billingsley (LAD): He has looked really good in the spring and that should quiet his critics who were concerned about his leg which he broke in the off-season. I think '09 is a breakout season for Billingsley and he will finally be mentioned among the league's elite.

Wingmen

14. Felix Hernandez (SEA): King Felix was the victim of injuries in '08 and I expect him to recover with some great numbers in '09. If Erik Bedard can pitch well and Brandon Morrow can develop as expected, that will take some added pressure off of Hernandez. This is a good thing for a guy that is still only 22 years old.

15. Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS): "Dice-K" pulled off some tricks that were nothing short of Houdini-esqe in '08. How could someone walk that many batters and still win 18 games? Well he plays on a great team and big time pitchers, make big time pitches in big time situations. Dice-K makes pitches when he has to and his stuff is filthy which never hurts.

16. A.J. Burnett (NYY): I'm going to sum-up Burnett's career in one sentence. IF healthy, his stuff is as good as anyone in MLB. The problem is that he has spent so much of his time on the DL and we never really get to see what he can do over the course over a season. Is he just injury prone or does he really like the training room? My guess is that the NY media will be asking that question at some point this season.

17. Josh Beckett (BOS): Speaking of injury-prone, Beckett carries a very similar tag as does Burnett. I wouldn't draft him as your number one but if you can manage to slate him as your two or three, you've got a nice staff in the works.

18. Yovani Gallardo (MIL): I'm beginning to think there is a theme here. Gallardo was injured in '08 with a torn ACL but in the few starts he did have, he was very good. Remember the fantasy craze that followed this guy when he finally got the call to the bigs? It was well-deserved and if he is 100% healthy, he could put together quite an impressive stat line.

19. Zack Greinke (KC): It seems as though Greinke has harnessed some of the mental and emotional issues he was having earlier in his career. Now that he's focused on becoming an elite major league pitcher, he is due to have a huge year in '09. The Royals should be better and even if they aren't, sometimes you have to go for the "diamonds in the rough" to better your squad.

20. Cliff Lee (CLE): In the words of Ricky Bobby, "That..just...happened." Those are the only words that come to mind when I look at Lee's line from '08. I find it almost impossible for him to repeat those numbers but what he did last year was not a fluke. Lee made some major adjustments and his numbers were a direct product.

21. Rich Harden (CHC): Do yourself a favor. Take a look at Harden's numbers throughout his career. If the word "if" doesn't come to mind, you're not looking closely enough. One of these years Harden is going to put together a 200+ innings season and lead the league in K's.

22. Edinson Volquez (CIN): This will be a huge year to determine what kind of pitcher Volquez is going to be. Will he breakdown after 190+ innings in '08 or will he be fresh and even better? My guess is that he puts up very similar numbers in '09 which makes him a top 25 starting pitcher for the next couple of years.

23. Scott Kazmir (TB): Owners were a little worried coming into '08 because of some inflammation in Kazmir's elbow. However, Kazmir put up...Kazmir numbers in '08. He still needs to work a little deeper into games and with that, his K's numbers will go up and the hope is his WHIP will go down.

24. Ryan Dempster (CHC): Before last year, I took a look at Dempster's numbers as a starter and I was immediately a fan. After last year, now's not the time to jump off of that bandwagon. Expect more of the same in '09.

25. Ricky Nolasco (FLA): It seemed as though Nolasco started to "get it" in the second half last year. I think he continues to build on his strong second half and I even see a decline in his 3.52 ERA from last year.

The Best of the Rest

26. Carlos Zambrano (CHC): There is definitely a question of which Zambrano we will see in '09. He wasn't very good down the stretch and his numbers definitely reflected that. I think he benefits from some time off and comes into '09 with a great supporting cast in the rotation.

27. Adam Wainwright (STL): Add his raw stuff along with some guidance from Chris Carpenter and good things should happen.

28. Joba Chamberlain (NYY): The Yankees have spent a ton of money this off-season and if he earns a spot in the rotation, they need to let this horse pitch. You can only hold him back so much before he forces you to let him pitch 180+ innings.

29. Kevin Slowey (MIN): The comparisons to Brad Radke are dead on. He is a control freak who will only get better in '09 because of his intelligence and work ethic. Just ask my 14 year old all-star team. Although it won't show up for any fantasy points, it couldn't happen to a nicer kid.

30. Matt Cain (SF): Take a look at his stats over his career. If you like them, then take him in your draft. Your destin to get very similar numbers.

31. Jon Lester (BOS): Great team and he's still learning to pitch at the major league level. That's scary.

32. Derek Lowe (ATL): The sinker-baller gets a change of scenary with his move to Atlanta. He has looked pretty good in spring training. You can't expect many K's but he should help you out with 12-15 wins.

33. Ted Lilly (CHC): He's not a very sexy pick but his team and his K's keep him in the conversation.

34. Justin Verlander (DET): There is no way he can be that bad again.

35. Scott Baker (MIN): Along with Slowey and Liriano, the Twins are putting together a nice staff. His numbers continue to improve each year.

36. Randy Johnson (SF): The age-less wonder continues to put up above average numbers. I think the fact that he joins a very young staff only re-energizes him more.

37. Aaron Harang (CIN): (See Justin Verlander) There is no way he can be that bad again either. The decrease in innings in '08 should help him recover in '09.

38. Max Scherzer (ARI): His stuff is electric, nasty and filthy. The question is where will he fit into the D-Backs staff and can he stay healthy.

39. Javier Vazquez (ATL): A ton of K's and a high ERA. It's been Vazquez's M.O. for years now.

40. Matt Garza (TB): He showed his potential in the ALCS last year. Which Matt Garza will show up in '09?

Ten Pitchers Who Could Change Your Season: The next ten guys all come with questions and because of that, they may be ignored on draft day depending on the size of your league. However, they all have great potential to help significantly improve your fantasy squad. If you don't draft them on draft day, keep a close eye on them because you don't want to lose out on this type of fantasy potential.

41. Josh Johnson (FLA): Johnson did the unthinkable in putting up such efficient numbers so shortly after having Tommy John surgery. Time is the best thing to have on your side during that recovery and that probably means even better numbers in '09.

42. Chris Carpenter (STL): He was very good in his few starts at the end of '08. Injuries don't get easier as you get older and that's what still makes Carpenter a question. He could be a huge bargain if he somehow regains his Cy Young form or even close to it.

43. Brandon Morrow (SEA): Like Joba, there are some questions as to where Morrow fits into the Mariners' pitching staff. If he does serve as a starter, his upside is entirely too much to ignore.

44. David Price (TB): If you watched the post-season last year, you really don't need too much analysis. If you do grab him on draft day, you may have to wait a little. There are rumors that he may start the season at Triple-A.

45. Erik Bedard (SEA): I'm still suffering from some of the burns I got from drafting Bedard last year. He supposedly was injured from the beginning of the season last year so the hope is that the off-season surgery has him back to 100%. He could be a great value pick if other owners are willing to let him drop.

46. Ubaldo Jimenez (COL): Now I know it was the Netherlands, but if you got a chance to see him pitch in the WBC, you would be just as high on him as I am. He does struggle with command at times but this will come as he matures. I think this is the year he makes a name for himself.

47. Clayon Kershaw (LAD): I haven't heard this much hype since the Jonas brothers came to Pittsburgh. Kershaw was "good" last year but he was nowhere near the immediate stud some had projected. He will be someday and he is only going to get better in '09.

48. Jonathan Sanchez (SF): If there is one person that can benefit from the Big Unit, it might just be Jonathan Sanchez. If he can learn to cut down on his walks, he immediately becomes a much more attractive fantasy option. My guess is that the Unit teaches him a little bit about pitching instead of throwing.

49. Justin Masterson (BOS): In what became a crowded starting rotation in the off-season, somehow Masterson might start the season as the Sox 5th starter. You have to love his numbers from '08 in limited starts.

50. Mike Pelfrey (NYM): He is developing into the pitcher that scouts thought he could be. Now he moves into the Mets rotation permenantly and I look for him to handle it well. I'm predicting career-best numbers for Pelfrey and a definite increase in strikeout numbers.

As with any SportsJudge articles, please feel free to post any questions or comments. Until next time, keep your ears open for the Buzz Around the Bullpen.

The Buzz Around The Bullpen: Fantasy Positional Preview: Relief Pitchers

[Editor’s note: With the fantasy baseball season fast approaching, SportsJudge continues its preseason positional preview. Please be sure to check back every Tuesday at 9 a.m. for a weekly positional analysis that will lead you right into your fantasy draft.

Other Fantasy Positional Previews:

1. Outfield

2. First Base

3. Second Base

4. Shortstop

5. Third Base

6. Catchers

Welcome back to another edition of “The Buzz Around the Bullpen.” This past week baseball got into full swing with the start of the World Baseball Classic. While there has already been coverage right here on SportsJudge, I’d like to weigh in on the WBC. Personally I love the WBC because it affords players a chance to play for their country. Players from Latin America spend their careers playing in a foreign country without an opportunity to ever play for the same fans that supported them as they developed into a major league talent. Equally as important to me, as a diehard baseball fan, I’m always up for some competitive baseball in the first week of March.

For right now, let’s get back to some preseason projections. Last week we focused on the Catcher position and today we will move on to some guys that toe the bump when the game is on the line. Let’s talk about some Relief Pitchers.

Studs

1. Jonathan Papelbon (BOS): The greatest River Dancer in Boston comes into ’09 as the number one closer once again. His numbers were impressive in ’08 and as long as Boston is a contender, he will continue to get a ton of opportunities.

2. Francisco Rodriguez (NYM): I love his move to New York and he should have a much easier time dealing with NL batters that haven’t had too many opportunities to see his stuff. For his critics that focus on the decline in some of his numbers last year; he was obviously doing something right when he recorded 62 saves.

3. Mariano Rivera (NYY): This guy continues to get better with age. Rivera is about as sure a thing as there is in fantasy baseball. I don’t foresee this being the year when AL hitters finally figure out his nasty cutter.

4. Joe Nathan (MIN): On draft day, please don’t be concerned with Nathan’s decision to pull out of the WBC. He has pitched well in limited innings in spring training and his shoulder will not be an issue this year. With that being said, sit back and collect your 35+ saves.

5. Brad Lidge (PHI): I’m pretty sure that Brad Lidge showed everyone in baseball that he was back when he converted 48 of 48 save opportunites in ’08. Although there are some reports of forearm tightness in spring training, Lidge has come out and said that this is nothing out of the ordinary. The Phils are legitimate repeat contenders this year and that means tons of save opportunities for Lidge.

6. Joakim Soria (KC): If this guy pitched anywhere other than Kansas City, he would be ranked right up there with the top 3 or 4 closers. He enters this season only 24 years old and he is only going to get better. This could be the year that he forces himself into the conversation as one of baseball’s top three closers.

Wingmen

7. Carlos Marmol (CHC): Although he has had some experience at closing serving as the set-up man for often injured Kerry Wood, Marmol comes into ’09 as the Cubs primary closer. He’s only 26 years old and like Soria, he’s only going to get better. He should get plenty of opportunities for what should be a very solid Cubbies squad.

8. Jonathan Broxton (LAD): Broxton came on in the second half of ’08 and was dominant at times. He has absolutely electric stuff and he has the ability to throw it past just about any hitter in MLB. As a closer, you’re not always going to have your good slider or change-up so it never hurts to have a 100 mph+ fastball that you can lean on.

9. Brian Fuentes (LAA): Fuentes takes over as closer for the Angels in ’09. One thing that immediately comes to mind is that the Angels were the same team that gave K-Rod enough opportunities to record 62 saves in ’08. I can see Fuentes benefiting from his change of scenery and I predict he’ll record between 32-35 saves in ’09.

10. Bobby Jenks (CHW): It’s never a bad thing to see a guy get 30 saves and consider it a “down” year. Prior to last year, Jenks recorded at least 40 saves in two consecutive seasons. While the Sox may be down this year, I still predict Jenks getting around 34-36 saves in '09.

11. Kerry Wood (CLE): Wood recorded 84 Ks in 66.1 innings and finished with 34 saves in ’08. Cleveland should be much improved this year and I think Wood will get a ton of opportunities as a result.

12. Jose Valverde (HOU): For a guy that has recorded 47 and 44 saves respectively over the past two seasons, it seems a little late to be mentioning his name. However, he has a history of blowing saves and his ERA will also make you a little nervous. He is a guy that will drive you nuts one night and then strikeout out the side the next.

13. Chad Qualls (ARI): For the past several years, I’ve been waiting for this guy to get some notoriety as one of the games top relievers. Now that he is the early favorite to serve as the D-Backs closer, he finally has some great fantasy value. I predict a breakout year and he will be a great value pick because most owners will overlook him on draft day.

14. Trevor Hoffman (MIL): In comparison to his career numbers, Hoffman struggled for the San Diego Padres in ’08. Hoffman now finds himself in Milwaukee and he should benefit with this move to a better team. He’s definitely on the back-end of his career but he still should be good for at least 25 saves.

15. B.J. Ryan (BAL): If you’re wondering why I ranked Ryan so low, take a look at his numbers this spring. If you need some more convincing, just listen to what he has to say about his recent performances. My prediction is that there is something more going on and he is altering his mechanics because of it.

16. Matt Capps (PIT): The early news out of Buccos spring training is that Capps has come into camp in the best shape of his career and as a result, his velocity has increased significantly. I think this means more K’s for Capps this year and if you add this to the fact that he only walked 5 batters last year, he becomes a viable fantasy option.

17. Francisco Cordero (CIN): Cordero’s numbers took a hit with his move to Cincinnati in ’08. I think the numbers he put up last year are more of what we should expect in ’09. Keep an eye on Cordero leading up to your draft day because there are reports out of spring training of some possible injury issues.

18. Brian Wilson (SF): While Wilson did record 41 saves in his first year as closer for the Giants; he was a little too hittable. As a result, his numbers suffered and his 4.62 ERA was difficult to swallow for his owners. Hopefully he can rebound with better numbers but until then, you’re better off drafting a guy who can get you 25-30 saves with a lot better numbers.

19. Matt Lindstrom (FLA): If you haven’t heard about Matt Lindstrom yet, you will very soon. He does have a power arm but right now, his stuff is very raw. He will continue to develop throughout the season and like Broxton, he’ll have a 100 mph+ fastball to lean on when his other stuff isn’t working.

20. Mike Gonzalez (ATL): The Braves are hoping that Gonzalez can get back to the numbers he put up before his Tommy John surgery. If he can, he has the ability to record 23-26 saves in '09.

The Best of the Rest

21. Frank Francisco (TEX)

22. Heath Bell (SD)

23. Brad Ziegler (OAK)

24. Brandon Lyon (DET)

Waiting in the Wings

The next group of relievers have the potential to step in and steal some save opportunities in ’09. These aren’t guys you have to go out and get on draft day but you should definitely keep an eye on them on your league’s waiver wire.

25. Brandon Morrow (SEA): My guess is that even if Morrow doesn’t nail down the closer role in spring training, he will at some point early in the season.

26. Chris Ray (BAL): George Sherrill was good last year but he needs to cut down on his walks if he wants to keep his job. Ray is healthy again and I think he reclaims his job by June.

27. Manny Corpas (COL): Colorado brought in Huston Street in the Matt Holliday trade but he has been awful in spring training. Unfortunately, you can also almost guarantee a DL stint for Street so look for Corpas to step in and take advantage of some save opportunities.

28. Ryan Franklin (STL): Chris Perez is having some foot issues and as a result, I think Franklin wins the closer job at some point in the first couple weeks of the season.

29. Joel Zumaya (DET): If he can stay healthy, I don’t think Brandon Lyon can hold him off. The last time he was healthy in ’06 he was a nightmare for AL hitters.

30. Joel Hanrahan (WAS): He will most likely come into the season as the Nationals' number one option at closer. The Nationals should be better so hopefully Hanrahan can cash in on some added opportunities.

Please be sure to check back next week when we take a look at Starting Pitchers.
As with any SportsJudge articles, please feel free to post any questions or comments. Until next time, keep your ears open for the Buzz Around the Bullpen.

The Buzz Around The Bullpen: Fantasy Positional Preview: Catchers

[Editor’s note: With the fantasy baseball season fast approaching, SportsJudge continues its preseason positional preview. Please be sure to check back every Tuesday at 9 a.m. for a weekly positional analysis that will lead you right into your fantasy draft.]

Other Fantasy Positional Previews:
1. Outfield
2. First Base
3. Second Base
4. Shortstop
5. Third Base

Welcome back to another edition of “The Buzz Around the Bullpen.” Let me first preface this by stating that I am writing this article on Saturday, February 28th because I’m headed on a little vacation for some R and R. With that being said, I can’t believe the audacity that Manny Ramirez and agent Scott Boras have shown this off-season. Is Manny Ramirez arguably the best right-handed hitter of all-time? Yes, but if I’m the Los Angeles Dodgers, I am chalking Manny’s recent stubbornness as a blessing in disguise. At this point, if I were making the decisions for the Dodgers, I would leave this latest offer as my final offer on the table. If Manny is not willing to work with the Dodgers when they are his only suitor, then maybe they're better off without him.
As I’ve stated in the past, Manny is someone that needs to be playing for something. Last year Manny was a stud in Los Angeles when he knew he was playing for a new contract. Rewind back to Manny’s last days a Boston Red Sox and you’ll see a totally different player. Granted he was still putting up above average numbers but he single-handedly was ruining the Sox clubhouse. The Dodgers have made a nice effort to build a contending team this off-season and it would be a real shame for the Manny-saga to continue into the regular season. My guess is by the time you’re reading this, Manny is signed and in camp for the Dodgers. The real question will be what Manny shows up for camp.

For right now, let’s get back to some preseason projections. Last week we focused on the Third Base position and today we will move behind the dish. Let’s talk about some Catchers.

Studs

1. Brian McCann (ATL): Brian McCann puts up stud numbers playing a position that lacks just about any offensive pop. In his rookie season, McCann was unreal hitting an impressive .333 with 24 HRs and 93 RBIs. After a still productive but more mediocre 2007, McCann returned in 2008 hitting .301 with 23 HRs and 87 RBIs. He has a tendency to “drop-off” a bit in the second half but this is clearly a product of the grind of playing the catcher position. I predict similar numbers to 2008 and he will continue to build on what has become an above average career with the Atlanta Braves.

2. Geovany Soto (CHC): Normally I’d like to see a little bit more out of a catcher before I’d rank him ahead of perennial stud catchers Russell Martin and Joe Mauer. However, I really like what I saw out of Soto in 2008. As the NL Rookie of the Year, Soto hit .285 with 23 HRs, 86 RBIs and 66 runs. Not too bad for a guy that only had 80 MLB at-bats coming into last season. He did show a tendency to be a “streaky” hitter in 2008 but as he matures, I expect to see more plate discipline and less erratic month to month numbers. I would select him over Martin and Mauer because he is the last guy available at the catcher position that has the chance to hit 25-30 HRs every year.

3. Russell Martin (LAD): If you take a look at Martin’s career numbers, his homerun numbers have fluctuated from 10, up to19, and then back to 13. His stolen base numbers over the past three seasons have varied from 10, to 21 and then to 18. I think it would be fair to predict that Martin probably projects as a guy that will hit .280-.300 with 15 HRs and 15 stolen bases. I am encouraged that his walks have increased each year but still those numbers put him slightly behind the two young studs mentioned above.

4. Joe Mauer (MIN): If there is one word that comes to mind when I think of Joe Mauer, it has to be “consistency.” Over the last four years, he’s never hit below .294 and has a career OBP of .399. He’s not flashy or sexy and nothing he does is going to amaze you but year in and year out, he continues to put up numbers that have him in the MVP race. While some predict his power numbers will come around as he matures, I don’t see Mauer ever hitting well over 16-18 HRs. It’s not that he’s not capable of doing so but I believe this guy is too focused on contact and is unwilling to give up an at-bat for the chance at hitting a homerun. If a homerun comes, great but its not his approach at the plate.

5. Victor Martinez (CLE): If I was completely convinced that Martinez was 100%, he’d easily slip right into the two or three spot in my projections. If you need some explanation, take a look at this guy’s numbers before last year’s elbow injury. Now that we know he had a serious enough injury which required surgery, last year’s awful start shouldn’t scare you. However, he was out for a significant amount of time and I’m anxious to see how he’s able to hit in the early chilly months of the season with a surgically repaired elbow. If healthy, this guy could be a great steal after the first four guys are off of the board.

Wingmen

6. Ryan Doumit (PIT): Speaking of staying healthy, Ryan Doumit and the Pittsburgh Pirates could really benefit from an injury-free 2009. For the first time in his career, Doumit had more than 300 at-bats in 2008. With the added opportunities, Doumit proved he had the ability to hold down the Buccos starting catching job hitting .318 with 15 HRs, 69 RBIs and 71 runs. For a guy that was once nicknamed Ryan “No-Mitt”, he’s developed into a nice MLB catcher. I ranked him in the sixth spot because I think he’ll continue to develop in 2009.

7. Bengie Molina (SF): As one of the 57 Molina brothers in MLB, Bengie has consistently put up numbers from the catcher position. He has quietly hit a decent number of homeruns each year over the course of his career, yet fantasy owners refuse to give him “lovin’” on draft day. You can’t put a price on consistency and he’s worth a look later in your draft. Even though I rank him at 7, he’ll most likely get drafted after a couple of guys that I rank lower than him.

8. Chris Iannetta (COL): Iannetta continues to be somewhat underrated in terms of fantasy catchers. While he put some above average power numbers in ’08, his average has kept him from being mentioned among the league’s top 5 catchers. I expect a little more discipline this year and with that, an increase in his average.

9. Ramon Hernandez (CIN): Hernandez was once viewed as one of the top offensive options at the catcher position. After some injuries and some offensive struggles Hernandez slipped into the middle of the pack amongst other catchers. I love his move to Cincinnati and I believe his numbers will benefit greatly. In case you don’t remember, take a look at what Cincinnatti’s home park did for catcher David Ross.

10. Matt Wieters (BAL): If you’re willing to wait a little while for some great production, take a chance with Matt Wieters. Although he may not break camp with the O’s, they can only keep him down for so long. There are rumors that he may follow the Evan Longoria path and come up sometime around the beginning of May for contractual reasons. Wieters is a future star and he is definitely worth drafting and holding on to until he gets his call to the bigs.

The Best of the Rest

11. Mike Napoli (LAA)

12. Pablo Sandoval (SF)

13. A.J. Pierzynski (CHW)

14. Dioner Navarro (TB)

15. Jorge Posada (NYY)

Please be sure to check back next week when we take a look at Relief Pitchers.

As with any SportsJudge articles, please feel free to post any questions or comments. Until next time, keep your ears open for the Buzz Around the Bullpen.

The Buzz Around The Bullpen: Fantasy Positional Preview: Third Baseman

[Editor’s note: With the fantasy baseball season fast approaching, SportsJudge continues its preseason positional preview. Please be sure to check back every Tuesday at 9 a.m. for a weekly positional analysis that will lead you right into your fantasy draft.]

Other Fantasy Positional Previews:
1. Outfield
2. First Base
3. Second Base
4. Shortstop

Welcome back to another edition of “The Buzz Around the Bullpen.” So is anyone else tired of hearing about steroids yet? I know I am and unfortunately, I think the worst is only yet to come. While I understand the recent A-Rod steroid news has revived the steroid conversation, is now the first time we’re realizing that these guys were taking these performance enhancing drugs? I have a hard time believing that. At this point, the best thing baseball can do is to admit that it shares some of the responsibility and show that they have instituted some of the toughest drug testing in sports. Until then, the blame game will continue and the great baseball stories of 2009 will be overshadowed by continuous coverage of that weeks new steroid news.

For right now, let’s get back to some preseason projections. Last week we focused on the Shortstop position and today we will move to the hot corner. Let’s talk about some Third Basemen.

Studs

1. Alex Rodriguez (NYY): Similar to Hanley Ramirez last week, if you’ve landed the first pick of your draft, you have to take a look at A-Rod. While the media scrutiny will continue throughout the 2009 season, this guy is just too good to be held down. You can expect at least a guaranteed 35 HRs, 115 RBIs, 115 runs and around 20 stolen bases. Until this guy stops producing at such an impressive rate, you have to put him slightly ahead of some of the young rising superstars at the third base position.

2. David Wright (NYM): If you take a look at David Wright’s 2008 numbers, they are quite similar to A-Rod’s. Maybe more important, Wright’s numbers in ’08 were improved from his past three seasons (outside of his average which dropped to a still impressive .302). Considering he’s only 26 years-old, it is likely that he’ll continue to build on his numbers in ’09. If you miss out on A-Rod, David Wright is a great option to hold down the hot corner on your fantasy squad.

Wingmen

3. Evan Longoria (TB): Whether it is the post-World Series hype or just the thought of owning a 23 year-old stud, someone is likely to overdraft Longoria in your league in the first two rounds. Please don’t think that I’m not high on Longoria because I believe this guy will eventually be one of the faces of the game. However, Longoria isn’t quite on the level of A-Rod and David Wright just yet and I’m not willing to spend my first or second round pick on him. It is possible that he may struggle in his sophomore season and I need to see one more year from him before he is on top of my draft board.

4. Kevin Youkilis (BOS): I really like Kevin Youkilis this year. After jumping from 16 to 29 HRs last year, Youkilis established himself as a viable fantasy third base option. Before draft day, be sure to check his player page because he will almost definitely be 1B eligible as well. A combination of his versatility, his potential and the fact he gets to hit in the Boston lineup everyday makes him a nice pick after the elite guys are off of the board.

5. Aramis Ramirez (CHC): Before each season, there are certain predictions you can make that are about as close to a lock as possible. Here’s one for you…If Aramis is healthy, he is good for .300, 30 HRs and a 100 RBIs. As a Pirate fan, I look at him as “the one that got away.” If you have the opportunity to grab him and the time is right, don’t make the same mistake the Buccos did.

6. Chris Davis (TEX): Before you question why Davis is here, take a look at the guys that are left. The only player I had trouble ranking Davis higher than was Chipper Jones. I explain why Chipper lost that battle next. I like Davis here because he has dual eligibility at 1B and 3B, he has a ton of power potential, he plays in Texas and he has a great track record throughout his minor-league career. I’m sure they’ll be some stretches where you’ll question this pick but by the end of the season, you’ll be pleased you didn’t settle for a veteran.

7. Chipper Jones (ATL): Chipper Jones is turning 37 years old in April, he hasn’t played in more than 137 games since 2003 and I have a hard time believing he’ll ever hit .364 again. Now that I’ve told you why I didn’t rank him at 6, here’s why he is still a valuable fantasy option. He still has the ability to hit around 20 HRs and his OBP is consistently around the tops in the league. If you do decide to draft Chipper, it might be a good idea to also draft a Plan B later in your draft.

8. Aubrey Huff (BAL): Huff has great versatility with dual eligibility at 1B and 3B and he is also coming off a great year in ’08. However, if you take a look at Huff’s career numbers, there is no telling what kind of numbers he’ll put up in ’09. With that being said, I am a little hesitant to take a chance on him but if you’re confident he can repeat his numbers, here’s where he fits in with the rest of the 3B’s.

9. Ryan Zimmerman (WAS): I may be one of the few that hasn’t completely “written off” Ryan Zimmerman. He was awesome in his rookie season in ’06 and has only shown flashes since. One of those flashes was last September when he hit 5 of his 14 total homeruns in ’08. You may be able to get some great value for your pick so if he’s available after these first eight are off of the board, he is worth taking the chance.

10. Garrett Atkins (COL): Over the past three years, Atkins’ numbers have declined in a hurry. Now he’s lost some protection in the lineup with the departure of one of the league’s best hitters, Matt Holliday. This is nothing but bad news for Atkins. However, his dual eligibility at 1B and 3B still make him attractive and let’s be honest…there isn’t too much left at the 3B position.

The Best of the Rest

11. Adrian Beltre (SEA)

12. Chone Figgins (LAA)

13. Jorge Cantu (FLA)

14. Mark DeRosa (CLE)

15. Mark Reynolds (ARI)

Please be sure to check back next week when we take a look at Catchers.

As with any SportsJudge articles, please feel free to post any questions or comments. Until next time, keep your ears open for the Buzz Around the Bullpen.

The Buzz Around The Bullpen: Fantasy Positional Preview: Shortstops

[Editor’s note: With the fantasy baseball season fast approaching, SportsJudge continues its preseason positional preview. Please be sure to check back every Tuesday at 9 a.m. for a weekly positional analysis that will lead you right into your fantasy draft. In case you missed it; take a look at last weeks preview where SportsJudge focused on Second Basemen.]

Welcome back to another edition of “The Buzz Around the Bullpen.” With pitchers and catchers reported in every camp, the 2009 Major League Baseball season is officially underway. For fantasy owners, this means only one thing. Now’s the time to scour the internet for depth chart updates, player injury news and any reports of stud and dud performances throughout major league camps.

For right now, let’s get back to some preseason projections. Last week we focused on the Second Basemen and today we will stay up the middle. Let’s talk about the Shortstop position.

Studs

1. Hanley Ramirez (FLA): If you’ve landed the first pick in your draft, you have to look long and hard at Hanley Ramirez. For starters, he has the ability to give you ridiculous numbers at the shortstop position. Last year Ramirez hit .301 with 33 HRs, 67 RBIs and 35 stolen bases. In addition to these numbers, Ramirez is only 25 years old and there is also word out of Miami that he may move to the middle of the lineup. That is if prospect Cameron Maybin can nail down the leadoff position in Spring Training. Ramirez has to be the first shortstop taken and don’t be afraid to make him the first pick in your draft.

2. Jose Reyes (NYM): If you miss out on Ramirez on draft day, Jose Reyes is definitely a great back plan. Reyes has stolen at least 50 stolen bases for the past four seasons and he may just be the most exciting player in baseball. He put up some great numbers in ’08 and I look for them only to improve in ’09. His OBP has improved each year over the past four seasons and as we’ve seen, anytime this guy is on base he’s liable to create some offense. He’ll be gone midway through the first round, so act fast if you want him.

3. Jimmy Rollins (PHI): While I don’t expect Rollins to return to the 30 HRs he hit in ’07, I can definitely see Rollins finishing ’09 with around 20-22 HRs. If you add this to 75+ RBIs and 35+ stolen bases, Rollins is a nice option at a fairly thin shortstop position. You’ll have to weigh your options in the late first/ early second round to decide whether you’d rather have Rollins, a stud outfielder or a front-end starter.

Wingmen

4. Derek Jeter (NYY): I’m a huge believer in finding a diamond in the rough on a weak team. But every once in a while, you just have to stick with what works. After Ramirez, Reyes and Rollins are off of the board, there really isn’t a proven option at the shortstop position. With that being said, you can’t go wrong with a future Hall of Famer who will find himself in an explosive lineup in ’09. However, Jeter is only a good pick several rounds into your draft. It’s a win-win situation if you think about it. You either pick him up around the 4th or 5th round or wait till much later to get a guy that will put up somewhat similar numbers. The only thing you’re risking by waiting and going with another shortstop is that he won’t bring the consistency that Jeter possesses.

5. Stephen Drew (ARI): This is a huge year for Stephen Drew. There is a great disparity between his numbers in ’07 and ’08. Most notably, his average went from .238 in ’07 to .291 in ’08. Although I do expect his numbers to continue to improve, it will be interesting to see where Drew finishes in ’09. My guess is that he ends up hitting somewhere around .280 with 26 HRs and a ton of extra base hits. He’s a future star and as his body matures, those extra base hits are going to turn into homeruns.

6. J.J. Hardy (MIL): I made the mistake of giving up entirely too early on Hardy in ’08. While he hasn’t nailed down that “consistency” thing quite yet, he has proven he can put up above-average numbers at the major league level. After the upper-echelon guys are off of the board, there isn’t too much power available at the shortstop position. If you need some convincing, take a look at the guys that are left on the board.

7. Troy Tulowitzki (COL): Tulowitzki is one guy I’m really anxious to see where he goes on draft day. While some may be deterred by his sophomore slump, others will draft him based on his impressive 2007 rookie season. In limited at-bats last season, Tulowitzki continued to build on his strong rookie season. If healthy, Tulowitzki can put up Hardy/Drew-like numbers.

8. Jhonny Peralta (CLE): Peralta was one of the lone bright spots for the Tribe in ’08. After several injuries to some of the Indians’ middle of the lineup hitters, Peralta took over the four spot in the lineup and put up some great power numbers. With the return of Hafner and Martinez, the Indians’ lineup gets a lot better and this will give Peralta an opportunity see even more pitches.

9. Mike Aviles (KC): If you recognize Aviles’ name from the preseason rankings, it is because he was also included in the 2B rankings. Fortunately for you, other members of your league might not be reading these projections and they may have never even heard of this guy. If the guys listed above are off of the board, you have to take a chance on this guy. If you need some coercing, think about the fact that he’s eligible at both middle infield positions and there really aren’t too many guys left. If you look at the players left, they all put up similar numbers and no one really distinguishes themselves from the others. If you’ve waited this long, it is worth taking a chance on a guy that could be a huge sleeper. You can always pick up a Guzman or a Greene type player as a back-up plan.

10. Michael Young (TEX): The days of Michael Young dominating the shortstop postion are long past. However, with the ability to consistently hit around .300 and his added positional versatility with his move to 3B this season, Young is still a serviceable fantasy option. If I’m drafting Young, I’m also taking a chance on a shortstop prospect later in the draft. (See Elvis Andrus)

The Best of the Rest

11. Miguel Tejada (HOU)

12. Rafael Furcal (LAA)

13. Orlando Cabrera (FA)

14. Ryan Theriot (CHI)

15. Yunel Escobar (ATL)

Please be sure to check back next week when we take a look at Third Basemen.
As with any SportsJudge articles, please feel free to post any questions or comments. Until next time, keep your ears open for the Buzz Around the Bullpen.

The Buzz Around The Bullpen: Let The Chase Begin

[Editor’s note: With the fantasy baseball season fast approaching, SportsJudge continues its preseason positional preview. Please be sure to check back every Tuesday at 9 a.m. for a weekly positional analysis that will lead you right into your fantasy draft. In case you missed it; take a look at last weeks preview where SportsJudge focused on the First Base position.]

Welcome back to another edition of “The Buzz Around the Bullpen.” With most teams heading to Spring Training in the next week or two, baseball made a huge splash in the news this past weekend with the report that Alex Rodriguez failed a drug test in 2003 because of the use of two anabolic steroids. While others were quick to ridicule A-Rod, I actually felt bad for the guy. Please be sure to check out my article right here on SportsJudge.com.

For right now, let’s get back to some preseason projections. Last week we focused on the First Baseman and today we will move to the other member of the right side of the infield. Let’s talk about the Second Basemen.

Studs

1. Chase Utley (PHI): Although he had some off-season hip surgery and has a chance he’ll miss up to the first month of the season, Chase Utley has to be the first second baseman off of the board. He’s a career .298 hitter who has consistently shown the ability to hit for power and also steal some bases. In a position where power is at a premium, Utley has hit 28 or more HRs in three of his last four seasons. Similar to Pujols at the 1B position, there is not a whole lot of analysis needed to make Utley your starting second baseman.

2. Ian Kinsler (TEX): If I were the GM of a Major League Baseball team, I’d probably choose Dustin Pedroia over Kinsler. However, if I’m trying to draft a championship fantasy baseball team, I have to give the edge to Kinsler. In an injury shortened season, Kinsler hit .319 with 18 HRs, 71 RBIs and 102 runs. He also added in 26 stolen bases in 28 attempts. It is not out of the question that Kinsler could hit 25-30 HRs this season. His power potential puts him just slightly above our next second baseman.

3. Dustin Pedroia (BOS): Some guys can hit the ball 450 feet, some guys can run down any fly ball and then some guys are just baseball players. Dustin Pedroia is one of those guys that plays the game the way it is meant to be played. In only his second full season, Pedroia was named American League MVP. This came just a year after his 2007 campaign when he was named AL Rookie of the Year. It’s not that he does any thing spectacular but he just does everything right. In a season in which he hit .326 with 17 HRs, 83 RBIs, 118 runs and 20 stolen bases, I think it was most impressive that he only struck out 52 times in 653 at-bats. If Utley and Kinsler are off of the board, Pedroia is a no-brainer as the third 2nd baseman.

Wingmen

4. Brian Roberts (BAL): Roberts is one of those guys who’s draft position varies significantly from league to league. While some owners value his steady performance, other owners are looking for a “sexy” pick with a ton of upside. (see directly below) If you’re an owner in need of speed and consistency, definitely draft Roberts over our next second baseman. Although Roberts doesn’t hit a lot of homeruns or drive in a ton of runs, he’s a .284 career hitter that performs year in and year out.

5. Alexei Ramirez (CHW): Ramirez is young, raw and only going to get better. Considering he had 21 HRs, 77 RBIs and 65 runs in only 480 at-bats last year, he might not be a bad option after the first four guys are off of the board. Because of his youth and inexperience, he will have his struggles throughout the season. However, his upside is too much to ignore. If defensive plays could earn fantasy points, he might be the first 2nd basemen taken. It could be a rough year for the White Sox but I look for Ramirez to be a bright spot.

6. Brandon Phillips (PHI): If you are looking for a nice combination of power and speed, Brandon Phillips is a nice pick as the 6th second baseman. Although he did have a down year in ’08, he still projects to be at least a 25/25 guy in ’09. Over the past three seasons, his average has fluctuated but you can probably figure he’ll end up hitting around .270. Adding to his value, Phillips plays in a great hitter’s park and the Reds’ lineup around him will be fairly decent this year.

7. Dan Uggla (FLA): Last May Uggla was on pace to break just about every offensive record for a 2nd baseman. Unfortunately for his owners, he came back down to earth in a hurry. As someone that has owned him over the past two years, I can say this much about him. When you draft him, you know exactly what you are getting. He will hit for around 30 HRs and a bunch of RBIs but will strikeout a lot more than what you’ll be comfortable with. If you’re in a league that punishes hitters for K’s, you may want to consider another option at 2B.

8. Mark DeRosa (CLE): You can’t put a price on versatility and Mark DeRosa can play just about anywhere. DeRosa came out of nowhere in ’08 with 21 HRs in only 505 at-bats. I look for him to put up similar numbers in ’09. In Cleveland he will get a chance to play everyday and also hit in a lineup that features some of baseball’s young elite hitters. Don’t be discouraged about his age because his slugging percentage has actually improved as he’s gotten older.

9. Robinson Cano (NYY): Just when you think it’s about that time for Cano to have a break-out year, he puts up extremely average numbers that were the product of an awful first-half. My guess is that someone overdrafts him on draft day but if he does slip a bit in your league, you have to go get him. You never know when he could return to those ’06 numbers.

10. Jose Lopez (SEA): Lopez finally played up to his potential last season and I look for him to build off of that in ’09. He finally put together a year with a respectable average and a decent amount of power. I don’t expect .297 every year but .285 is definitely not out of the question.

The Best of the Rest

11. Kelly Johnson (ATL)

12. Freddy Sanchez (PIT)

13. Mike Aviles (KC)

14. Kazuo Matsui (HOU)

15. Orlando Hudson (FA)

Please be sure to check back next week when we take a look at Shortstops. As with any SportsJudge articles, please feel free to post any questions or comments. Until next time, keep your ears open for the Buzz Around the Bullpen.

The Buzz Around The Bullpen: Fantasy Positional Preview: First Basemen

[Editor’s note: With the fantasy baseball season fast approaching, SportsJudge continues its preseason positional preview. Please be sure to check back every Tuesday at 9 a.m. for a weekly positional analysis that will lead you right into your fantasy draft. In case you missed it; take a look at last weeks preview where SportsJudge focused on the outfield position.]

Welcome back to another edition of “The Buzz Around the Bullpen.” It is a little difficult talking about baseball today after an unbelievable Super Bowl victory by my hometown Pittsburgh Steelers. As much as I could analyze the Santonio Holmes catch or the James Harrison interception return, I will leave that up to the experts right here at SportsJudge.com.

For right now, let’s get back to the diamond to talk about some preseason projections. Last week we focused on the outfielders and some of my projections caused some great debate that is definitely worth taking some time to read. Once again, I appreciate your comments and I hope that the interest continues throughout the entire preseason preview. Today I’ll take a look at another position which I’m sure will cause some great debate amongst the readers. Let’s talk about the First Basemen.

Studs

1. Albert Pujols (STL): I’m not quite sure that Albert being the number one 1B needs much analysis. However, let’s take a look at his numbers from last year just to remind us of how good he actually is. In a year where owners were hesitant to draft him because of the potential need for Tommy John surgery, Pujols hit .357 with 37 HRs, 116 RBIs and had an OBP of .462. Albert Pujols should and will be the first 1B off the board in your league.

2. Mark Teixeira (NYY): Let me start by saying that number 2 and 3 are about as interchangeable as possible. But for right now, yes I’m drinking the Kool-Aid and I do believe that Teixeira’s move to New York will have him back to producing numbers similar to his 2005 season. While I do expect some growing pains in the beginning, I believe Teixeira will adjust quite quickly and begin to reap the benefits of the Yankees’ ridiculous lineup. Now with the protection of some of the greatest hitters in baseball, Teixeira will flourish as he’ll see more pitches to hit. Teixeira’s run and RBI totals will also increase because of the talent in the lineup. The best part about Teixeira is that even if he struggles, and I don’t expect him to; he’s still going to hit .300 with 30 HRs and 100 RBIs.

3. Miguel Cabrera (DET): While I was doing my research, the most surprising stat I came across with Miguel Cabrera was that he’s only turning 26 years old in April. Because he’s been around for so long, it is easy to think that this guy’s numbers have to drop-off soon. However, it is quite possible he is just entering his prime as a hitter. Miggy’s move to 1B hasn’t stopped him from putting up “stud-like” numbers. Last year Miggy hit .292 with 39 HRs, 121 RBIs and 100 runs. In terms of his batting average, 2007 was an off year for Cabrera. More than anything, that is just a testament of how good this guy is. I look for Miggy to hit closer to his .309 career average and it is more than possible he hits over 40 HRs for the first time in his career.

4. Ryan Howard (PHI): As a disclaimer, let me start by saying that if you are in a league that penalizes for strikeouts, it may be in your best interest to move on to number 5. Throughout his career, Howard has shown the ability to strike out three times in a game and then follow-up in his fourth at-bat with a homerun that endangers the NASA space station. For the better part of 2008, Ryan Howard was plain awful. The only thing he was doing consistently was striking out. Somehow he was able to recover and finished with 48 HRs. After putting up absurd numbers in 2006 (.313, 58 HRs, 148 RBIs, 104 runs, .425 OBP), Howard has come back down to earth and his batting average and OBP have taken a hit. One thing that does stick out is that even in 2006, Howard struck out 181 times. In ’07 and ’08, Howard’s strikeouts increased, striking out 199 times in each season. I guess the only thing that can be said is that if you draft Ryan Howard, you know what you’re getting. If you’re an owner that is easily frustrated by strikeouts, you may want to go with a more consistent hitter.

5. Lance Berkman (HOU): If you read my articles last year, it is no secret that I am not a Lance Berkman fan. When he was unreal in the first half last year, I spent most of my time coming up some reason not to love him as a fantasy player. Fortunately, for my sake, Berkman gave me some ammunition after the All-Star break when he hit .259 with only 7 HRs and 3 stolen bases. Regardless of my feelings towards Lance as a player, you can’t argue with his numbers. He’s a .300 career hitter that will probably hit around 30 HRs in ’09. However I don’t expect him to repeat his 18 stolen bases in ’09. It is probably more reasonable to expect around 8-10 stolen bases as that extra weight starts to take its tool as he gets a year older.

6. Adrian Gonzalez (SD): Somehow Adrian Gonzalez continues to hit for impressive power numbers in a ballpark that usually swallows up great hitters. I’m ranking Gonzalez ahead of a couple of great hitters solely because I love the progression he has shown over his three seasons. Each year, his power numbers have increased and he is just now entering that age bracket where hitter’s power numbers typically increase. Gonzalez’s average does scare some owners off but when you look at what’s left on the board after the first five players are taken, Gonzalez is your best option.

Wingmen

7. Justin Morneau (MIN): Contrary to Gonzalez, Justin Morneau’s homerun numbers have fallen off over the past three years. While he continues to drive in a ton of runs, I believe Morneau will finish ’09 with 22-26 HRs and 118 RBIs. I don’t think that Morneau has declined but I do think over his career, he will be more of a 24 HRs/year guy as opposed to the 34 and 31 HRs he put up in ’06 and ’07 respectively. His average has fluctuated over his career but I think you can assume he will hit around .290 for you.

8. Kevin Youkilis (BOS): I really like Kevin Youkilis this year. After jumping from 16 to 29 HRs last year, Youkilis established himself as a viable fantasy first base option. Before draft day, be sure to check his player page because he will almost definitely be 3B eligible as well. A combination of his versatility, his potential and the fact he gets to hit in the Boston lineup everyday makes him a nice pick after the elite guys are off of the board.

9. Prince Fielder (MIL): After coming off a stellar ’07 campaign, Prince was somewhat disappointing in ’08. He still finished with great numbers (.276, 34 HRs, 102 RBIs, 86) but at this stage in his career, it scares me that he took such a significant step back. Let’s not beat around the bush here. Prince has the potential to eat his way out of stardom. I know I often joke about this but with Prince, it truly is an issue. He has the potential to be great for an extended period of time but he needs to get serious about getting his body into better shape. Until he does so and gets back to hitting 40+ homeruns, I can’t afford to take a chance on him that early in my draft.

10. Joey Votto (CIN): I really like two things about Joey Votto. He’s young and he plays in a ballpark that turned catcher David Ross into a homerun hitter. In his first full season for the Reds, Votto established himself as a fairly discipline hitter with some great power potential. This may be a little early for the readers but I’m willing to take a chance on a guy with great upside like Votto.

11. Carlos Pena (TB): I think we saw the real Carlos Pena in ’08. In ’07, Pena exploded for 46 HRs, 121 RBIs and hit an impressive .282. I say impressive because Pena is a .251 career hitter. I expect more of the same from Carlos Pena and if you’re alright with .263 and 34 HRs, Pena is your guy.

12. Carlos Delgado (NYM): Last year was definitely a pleasant surprise for Delgado owners. The good news is that even as he gets older, you can still count on him for around 25 HRs. However don’t expect much more than his .280 career average.

13. Chris Davis (TEX): Let the comments begin after this bold prediction. I like Davis here because he has dual eligibility at 1B and 3B, he has a ton of power potential, he plays in Texas and he has a great track record throughout his minor-league career. I’m sure they’ll be some stretches where you’ll question this pick but by the end of the season, you’ll be pleased you didn’t settle for a veteran.

14. Aubrey Huff (BAL) and Jorge Cantu (FLA): I am grouping these guys together because I feel like they both carry the same risk/reward value. If you take a look at their career numbers, they are all over the place. In order for me to take either one of these guys, it would definitely have to be a great value pick later in my draft.

15. Adam LaRoche (PIT): If LaRoche could actually put together a full season, he would be a top 10 fantasy first baseman. Unfortunately, because of his last two seasons, that’s a big “if”. Here’s to hoping he decides to take a bat with him to the plate in April and May.

16. Garrett Atkins (COL): Over the past three years, Atkins’ numbers have declined in a hurry. Now he’s lost some protection in the lineup with the departure of one of the league’s best hitters, Matt Holliday. This is nothing but bad news for Garrett.

The Best of the Rest

17. Derrek Lee (CHI)

18. Mike Jacobs (KC)

19. Jason Giambi (OAK)

20. James Loney (LAD)

Please be sure to check back next week when we take a look at Second Basemen.
As with any SportsJudge articles, please feel free to post any questions or comments. Until next time, keep your ears open for the Buzz Around the Bullpen.

The Buzz Around the Bullpen: The Ceremonial First Pitch

Welcome to the first edition of the “Buzz Around the Bullpen”. Before I begin, I’d like to formally introduce myself. My name is Scott Simon and I have been playing fantasy baseball for about the past 10 years. I am also a huge football and hockey fan but for the entirety of my life, I have had a real passion for the game of baseball. After finishing my college baseball career several years ago, I have become even more enamored with fantasy baseball. As a Pittsburgh native, I have been left with the unfortunate responsibility of being a Pittsburgh Pirates fan. I am beginning to think that fantasy baseball also serves as an outlet to have a “rooting” interest in a player that is not on a team that has lost for 15 consecutive seasons. Regardless, as a Pirate fan, each year I continue to believe that this is “the year” that we will win 81 games. That should tell you everything you need to know about my “fanhood”.

Let’s get to what actually matters. Each article I hope to provide you with a couple of players to keep an eye on and a couple of guys you might want to steer clear from. I’d also like to focus on guys that might be struggling at the moment, but have something promising about them making them worthy of an acquisition. However, lets first focus on a couple of important things to consider when playing fantasy baseball.

Do not spend too much on relief pitching. This is absolutely one of my biggest “pet peeves” in fantasy baseball. Although this advice would probably have been a little more valuable before your draft day, relief pitching and especially closers are not entities that you need to splurge for. I’m not saying that closers are not valuable but last year David Weathers and Kevin Gregg each recorded over 30 saves. Weathers was slated as the opening day closer so he was most likely drafted; however, the Florida Marlins opened the season with Lee Gardner as their closer. If you are asking yourself who Lee Gardner is right now, you are in the vast majority. This happens every year and look for these guys instead of trading for a big name guy like Nathan or Putz.

Bad teams don’t always mean bad fantasy players. Until the 2007 debacle, this could simply have been known as the “Jason Bay Rule”. Before last year, Bay was a .300, 35 HR, 100 R.B.I., 10-20 SB guy for three years. Yet he was constantly overlooked and would fall on draft day. The average fantasy owner does not want a Pirate or a Royal on their team and those who are willing to take on these players will definitely reap the benefits. Remember, just because a team does not win a lot of games does not mean their players do not have any fantasy value. We’ll talk a little bit more about a couple of these guys later on.

Taking a gamble on potential can pay off. This is something that I am known for throughout my fantasy leagues. I would much rather take a young guy with star potential than to take a guy with his best years behind him. I remember in 2006, the Boston Red Sox were going to start their season out with Keith Foulke as their closer. It was late in the draft and I was confronted with taking either Jack Wilson from the Pirates or a young stud named Jonathan Papelbon. Needless to say, I was able to go away from my “homer” instincts and I scored huge. You don’t play fantasy baseball to come in 3rd place. You should take a gamble every once in a while. These are the types of guys that could help put you over the top and get you battling for the league championship.

There are so many other tips or strategies out there but I wanted to share a few of the principles I build my teams around. Now let’s get you started on building your team.

Big Hits

I am guessing these guys are gone from just about all of your leagues, but if they are not, jump on them immediately and you will be surprised they were there waiting for you.

Johnny Cueto (SP, Cincinnati Reds): I’m not sure if there is a greater buzz around baseball than that of Cueto. This guy has absolutely electric stuff and he does not know how to throw anything without movement. He is reminding people around baseball of a young Pedro Martinez. In 13.1 innings pitched this year, he has 18 K’s while carrying an E.R.A of just 2.02. Most impressive however is the fact that a guy with such a power arm has not walked a batter yet. If he is available grab him immediately.

Edinson Volquez (SP, Cincinnati Reds): While Volquez started the year with all the hype, Cueto has stolen most of the thunder. However Volquez has shown great stuff early as well. In his first start, he pitched 5.1 IP and struck out 8 batters. Similar to Cueto, he has a power arm and should give you great strikeout numbers. Neither of these guys should be ignored because of having to play in the launching pad in Cincinnati. Also, both of these guys possess a repertoire of pitches that have kept hitters off balance which has allowed them to get away with mistakes that are typical of a young pitcher.

Nate McLouth (CF, Pittsburgh Pirates): McLouth is finally getting his first crack at a starting job in Pittsburgh. Last year in just 329 AB’s, McLouth hit 13 HRs and stole 22 bases. Now translate that into a full season and you are looking at about 20 HRs with over 30 stolen bases. Not too bad for a guy that was not even drafted in a lot of leagues. The one knock on McLouth has been his batting average. But McLouth just like any hitter will benefit from getting consistent at bats everyday. McLouth is one of those guys that is on a bad team who will fall under the radar. Look to pick him up and replace one of your old slow OF’s.

Under the Radar

These are guys that are probably available in your league and you might want to watch them and snag them up if you are in need at that particular position.

Brian Bannister and Zach Greinke (SPs, Kansas City Royals): These guys have combined to go 4-0 and have virtually taken the bats out of their opponents hands. Although neither of these guys will threaten to lead the league in strikeouts, they know how to do one thing. Pitch. Bannister struck out A-Rod three times in his last start. It was how he struck him out that was most impressive. Bannister spots his fastball and even without overpowering stuff, is able to keep hitters guessing. Either of these guys would be a nice acquisition to fill out the back end of your rotation.

Ryan Dempster (SP, Chicago Cubs): Most owners wouldn’t have known Dempster was starting again if it wasn’t Kerry Wood that was taking his job. Dempster has served as the Cubs closer the past three years and has recorded years of 33, 24 and 28 saves. His move back to the rotation gives the Cubbies some much needed depth in really a pretty weak rotation behind Zambrano. He has been outstanding his first two starts. Although it was in 2001 (his last year healthy as a starter) he recorded a 15-win season. He added over 170 Ks as well that year. I know it seems like forever ago but between injuries and his move to the bullpen, this is really his first opportunity to prove himself as a starter again.

Wandy Rodriquez (SP, Houston Astros): Wandy struggled a little bit in his first start but he came back this week with a strong start. This is probably a guy you could definitely find on your waiver wire. This year he has 12Ks in 12.1 and his WHIP is an impressive .97. His numbers last year were very average, however they were much better at home. This is surprising considering the short porch in left in Houston. However, Wandy is a young guy with middle of the rotation potential and often times, young pitchers will pitch much better at home. I would look for him to put out numbers this year that are comparable to his home stats of last season. Keep your eye on him.

Zach Duke (SP, Pittsburgh Pirates): It might be entirely too early to say but by his first two starts, it certainly looks like Zach Duke is back…at least a little bit. After the Jim Tracy regime destroyed this once rising star, pitching coach Jeff Andrews is in Pittsburgh and it seems like Duke is getting back to his ways of throwing strikes and staying within himself. Andrews served as Duke’s pitching coach in the minor leagues and Duke flourished into a young pitching prospect. Before going down to injury, Duke’s rookie campaign had him in the running for Rookie of the Year honors. In 2005 he was 8-2 with a 1.81. ERA and 58 Ks in 84 innings pitched. He was supposed to anchor the staff in 2006 but pitching coach Jim Colburn had other ideas. For the next two years, Colburn toyed with Duke’s delivery and Duke struggled mightily. Last year he gave up 161 hits in 107 innings pitched and had an ERA of over 5.50. He could be a diamond in the rough and could potentially return to his old ways.

Honorable Mention

Here is a list of a couple of players that could possibly fill some needs for you.

Micah Owings (SP, Arizona Diamondbacks) (2-0, 2.63 ERA, 13Ks, WHIP .88)
Jeff Keppinger (SS/3B, Cincinnati Reds) (.382, 2 HR, 7 RBIs, 7 runs, 1 SB)
Dana Eveland (SP, Oakland Athletics) (1-0, 1.29 ERA, 7Ks, WHIP 1.00)
Mike Pelfrey (SP, New York Mets) (1-0, 3.60 ERA, 3Ks, WHIP 1.40)
Luke Scott (OF, Baltimore Orioles) (.500, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, 2 runs)
Corey Patterson (OF, Cincinnati Reds) (.323, 4 HR, 8 RBIs, 8 runs, 1 SB)
Joe Saunders (SP, L.A. Angels of Anaheim) (1-0, 0.56 ERA, 9Ks, WHIP .69)
Edwin Jackson (SP, Tampa Bay Rays) (2-0, 0.64 ERA, 10Ks, WHIP .93)


Sell’em if you Got’em

David Ortiz (DH, Boston Red Sox): I know this sounds ridiculous but the casual fantasy owner is willing to pay top dollar for a guy like David Ortiz. He is a big name guy and this prediction could come back to bite me, but I feel this year will prove that David Ortiz no longer is a big time player. I’m not saying that Ortiz is not still a valuable fantasy commodity but look for a serious decrease in his numbers this year. I noticed it first in the first two games of the season against Oakland. Big Papi just does not have the impressive plate coverage that he once had. It seemed like yesterday that Papi was turning on 90+mph cutters from Mariano Rivera. Whether it’s still his knee or just a decrease in bat speed, Papi can no longer drive the pitch on the inner half. His lower half is doing nothing for him and as a result, he is collapsing on his front side and just using all hands. I look for a serious decrease in his power numbers this year. Those homeruns to the short porch in right are now going to be warning track outs. I hope he proves me wrong but I’m selling now before the secret is out.

Andruw Jones (OF, Los Angeles Dodgers): Just a couple years removed from an unbelievable season, Andruw just does not look like he has it any more. He came into spring training looking like Eddie Guardado and he just doesn’t seem to have the passion to play anymore. He signed a 36 million dollar deal in the offseason and Jones might be ready to just put it on cruise control and collect his money. Jones will be 31 in a couple of weeks but you have to remember he is an old 31. This is the same guy that was playing in the World Series when he was 19 years old. It’s a shame to see so much talent go to waste but it looks like Andruw’s best days are clearly behind him. I just hope he doesn’t eat his way out of baseball before his contract is up. I fear the next time we might see Andruw Jones putting on a show will be in Coney Island at the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.

Jason Bay (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates): Last year was blamed on his bad knee, but Bay has picked up right where he left off last year. Unlike Jones, I believe Bay still has a ton left in the tank. However, he has fallen victim, just like many others, to the black hole they call Pittsburgh Pirates baseball. He voiced his displeasure with management this off-season when they remained status quo from a team that was horrible last season. Losing can wear you down and there really are no signs of things improving in Pittsburgh. I think J-Bay needs a change of scenery and that may come this year at the deadline. But for right now, he continues to struggle and I don’t know if he’ll ever recapture his numbers he had in Pittsburgh just a couple of years ago. If you have him, try and find someone who thinks it was just his knee last year and give him up for a young OF and another piece that might help you.

As with all SportsJudge articles, please feel free to post some comments. Until next time, make sure you listen for the Buzz Around the Bullpen.