Above the Rim: NBA Season Preview

The NBA season kicks off with the Cavaliers and the Celtics tomorrow night in a rematch of the 2008 Eastern Conference Finals (the Magic derailed the Celtics to ruin another matchup in the 2009 Conference Finals). This year’s offseason was fairly quiet with a lot of movement early and an unusual lack of off the court drama.

The contenders in the East and the West got richer this year without any teams making moves to join their ranks (the Pistons picking up Ben Gordon and Charlie Villaneuva should be enough to get them into the playoffs, but they will lose in the first round).

• The Cavaliers picked up Shaquille O’Neal early in the offseason to start the movement. While many seem to think that Shaq won’t perform at a high level, I think they are underestimating the Big Aristotle. He was an all-star last year in Phoenix averaging 17.8 points and 8.4 rebounds and Cleveland will be able to keep him fresh with Zydrunas Ilgauskas backing him up at center. Also, even if Shaq does not match his numbers from last year and settles around 14 points and 7 rebounds, it is still a large improvement over what the Cavs got from Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic last season. The Cavaliers then added Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon to increase their depth and athleticism at the shooting guard, small forward, and power forward positions. The Cavs are also expecting former Celtic Leon Powe back by the all-star break after off-season knee surgery.


• The Celtics also improved by adding Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels to their bench and, currently, are healthy after losing Kevin Garnett down the stretch. I think Wallace will be an effective pickup, but will not match his 12 points and 7.4 rebounds from last season with less looks on offense. I have always liked Daniels and he has proven he can be effective off the bench.


• The Orlando Magic had surprisingly high turnover on their roster after winning the Eastern Conference last season. The net result: Hedo Turkoglu, Rafer Alston, and Courtney Lee are all gone after contributing to the Magic’s run in the playoffs and are replaced by Vince Carter, Brandon Bass, and Ryan Anderson. I feel the Magic are worse off for the changes. Their bench is weaker with Mickael Pietrus stepping into the starting lineup at small forward because there isn’t an explosive player on the bench to replace him. Bass will help at the power forward and Anderson can shoot, but neither can match how effective Pietrus was. Lee was poised to break out this season and should have a good year in New Jersey where he will get more looks on offense. Carter is good, but he is getting older and has peaked. Swapping him for Turkoglu in the starting lineup also eliminates the matchup problems that a 6’11” point forward like Turkoglu created. His flexibility was a big reason why the Magic were able to knock off the Cavs last year. With a more traditional offense, the Magic lose that advantage and will struggle with both the Cavs and Celtics.


• The Lakers were the champions and then swapped Trevor Ariza, a potential star, for Ron Artest, an established star who I thought deserved top finish in the top 5 for MVP last season. The Lakers may also get something from Adam Morrison off the bench this season after getting him from Charlotte last season. After getting Shannon Brown from the Cavs, Brown developed into a nice role player within a season, and Morrison could be on track to follow in his footsteps.

Off-court drama in the NBA this off-season that could carry over into the regular season.

• How is the Stephen Jackson situation in Golden State going to unfold? After signing an extension, Jackson wants out for New York, Cleveland, or a team in Texas. The Cavs don’t have the pieces to make it happen and New York wants to maintain cap room for the 2010 free agent class. So where will Jackson end up…


• Toronto? The rumor a few weeks ago was a trade that would send Jackson to the Raptors for Chris Bosh. Bosh is a free agent in 2010 and is probably on his way back to the states. Toronto may try to cut its losses and get something back for Bosh if they are not in contention. However, the Raptors picked up Turkoglu this off-season and should be able to make the playoffs. Also, if they trade Bosh for Jackson, their leading rebounder from last season would be Andrea Bargnani, a 7 footer who plays more like a shooting guard instead of a post player, with only 5.3 rebounds per game. I look for Bosh to stay put in Toronto until at least the all-star break when the front office will have to evaluate how the season is going.


• Delonte West in Cleveland broke the silence of the off-season when he was arrested outside of Washington D.C. with pistols on his ankle and in his waistband, and a shotgun in a guitar case on his back. West left the team last year in training camp to get help with depression and bi-polar disorder. Supposedly, he was off his medication at the time of the arrest and is back on it now. Based on last season, West should be ok once the season gets started; he seems to cope better when he is around the other Cavs as he had his best season last year. However, the Cavs will probably have to play without him for a while as he will probably get suspended for a few games for his arrest.

Where is LeBron going?

• This story has been relatively quiet during the off-season as the economy will probably lower the salary cap next season restricting the number of teams that can offer him a full contract, or offer LeBron and another player max contracts. While the New York media, especially the New York Post, likes to write articles about why LeBron is coming to the Knicks, the rest of the country seems to think that LeBron will be back in Cleveland with an extension after the season. While I think that is probably what will happen, I still expect a steady stream of articles about LeBron leaving every time the Cavs play the Knicks or the Nets.

So what do we have to look forward to this season?

• LeBron James will win his second straight MVP award. His scoring may dip a bit as he shares the ball with Shaq and the other newcomers, but his rebounds and assists could jump as he plays off the ball a little more. I expect his assists to go up especially with Shaq in the post and Parker, whom coach Mike Brown said was the best shooter he has seen since Reggie Miller, on the wing. The Cavs were a 66 win team last season and improved, so they should be the top team in the East again which will help James in the MVP vote. Dark horse- Brandon Roy will lead the Blazers to the second best record in the West and will become one of the league’s elite players.


• Blake Griffin will run away with the Rookie of the Year. Last year’s best college player will get plenty of opportunities to produce for the dysfunctional Clippers and should average close to 15 points and 8 rebounds. A double-double average is an outside possibility as well. Second round surprises- Pitt Panthers Dajuan Blair and Sam Young were both productive and fundamentally sound players in college that will produce in the NBA this season. Blair will be a force in the post off the bench for the Spurs and Young should get looks for the Grizzlies at multiple positions.


• The Cavaliers and Celtics will play a classic series to decide the Eastern Conference championship for the second time in three years. This series will probably come down to who has home court advantage, but the Cavaliers are younger overall and have a little more depth on the bench and will be able to avoid and overcome injuries better than the Celtics. The series will go to seven games, but the Cavs should make their second appearance in the NBA Finals in four years where they will play …


• The LA Lakers. The Lakers are head and shoulders above every team in the West. It is kind of like when Larry Bird asked the other 3-point shooters who was going to finish second behind him at the 3-point shootout; there are talented teams out West, but this race is basically already decided. The only team I expect to give the Lakers trouble are the emerging Blazers. They played LA tough in the playoffs last season and should improve with another year of experience. I expect the Blazers to take the Lakers to six or seven games in the Western Conference Finals.


• In the NBA Finals, the NBA will finally have its Kobe-LeBron matchup. While the Lakers have the experience and may be the better team on paper, this series is too close to call. I would probably give the Lakers a 60-40 advantage today (which kills me as a Clevelander), but this series could go either way if LeBron or Kobe gets hot or if Shaq gets an adrenaline boost from playing against Kobe again.

Above the Rim: Conference Finals Edition

Four questions heading into the Conference Finals:
Can anyone beat the Cavaliers?
Are the Lakers going to start playing to their potential?
Can Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony lead the Nuggets to an upset?
Can the Magic hit enough threes to overcome LeBron and the Cavs?

Second Round Results:
Eastern Conference
Cavaliers v. Hawks- Cavs in 4 (my prediction- Cavs in 5)
Celtics v. Magic- Magic in 7 (me- Magic in 6)
Western Conference
Lakers v. Rockets- Lakers in 7 (me- Lakers in 6)
Nuggets v. Mavericks- Nuggets in 5 (me- Nuggets in 6)

Eastern Conference Finals
Cavaliers (1) v. Magic (3)- Magic win regular season 2-1 (home team won every game)
The Magic won the regular season matchup between these two teams, but a few things change in the playoffs. The Cavs will have 4 home games if the series goes to seven games, and the Magic did not win in Cleveland this year. Also, the Cavs have elevated their game to an entirely different level in the playoffs. Actually, since February 11, the Cavs are 35-4 (including 8-0 in the playoffs) and one of those losses was a season ending loss to the 76ers in which LeBron James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Mo Williams didn’t play. Additionally, the Cavs lost two in a row only twice all season, meaning the Magic almost have to win game 1 to take the series.
If the Cavs continue to play at the level they have been at all playoffs, this will be a short series. The Cavs are only giving up 78.125 points per game in the playoffs with their opponents’ high being only 85 (by the Hawks in game 3). The opponent has scored over 80 points in only 4 of 8 games. The offense, on the other hand, has averaged 94.875 so far in the playoffs and scored under 90 only twice. One of the best signs for the Cavs is how well they have played as a team. LeBron and Delonte West have both increased their scoring averages in the playoffs, but Williams, Ilgauskas, and Anderson Varejao are well below their averages. The reason the Cavs have overcome this is because their team defense has absolutely throttled the opposition and because at least one Cavalier has stepped up in each game of the playoffs. West has scored over 20 points twice, Joe Smith played like a monster in the Pistons series, and Wally Szczerbiak scored 17 in game 2 against Atlanta. Also, while Williams has scored over 20 points in 3 games, he has been inconsistent thus far in the playoffs, averaging only 14.7 points per game. However, even when Mo is having an off game, he still hits big shots. For example, despite scoring only 12 points and turning the ball over 4 times in game 4 against Atlanta, he hit 4 of 7 three-pointers including a big three to seal the win. The Cavs team mentality has allowed them to win big despite not everyone playing well currently. Despite the decrease in scoring from some of their key players, this is by far the best any team has played all season long.
The Magic need everything to click to beat the Cavs in this series. Dwight Howard should be able to score 20 points per game against Ilguaskas, Varejao, Smith, and Ben Wallace, but with 4 post players, the Cavs have 24 fouls to use on Howard to force him to the free throw line. The Cavs will be focused more on containing the Magic’s stable of perimeter shooters. To overcome the Cavs suffocating defense, the Magic will need Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Rafer Alston, Mickael Pietrus, Courtney Lee, and J.J. Redick to consistently hit their shots from three point range. The Magic relied heavily on the 3 in the regular season, hitting 10 of 26 per game for just over 38%. In the playoffs, they are 7.3 of 22.6 for 32.5%. To beat Cleveland, they will need to shoot closer to 38% because the Cavs will stifle the Magic’s offense. If the Magic can shoot consistently from the perimeter, they have a chance to knock Cleveland off, but if they are around 33%, the Cavs will win this series.
Prediction- Cavs in 5

Western Conference Finals
Lakers (1) v. Nuggets (2)- Lakers win regular season 3-1
In the regular season, there was a wide gap between the #1 seed Lakers and the rest of the West. In the playoffs, the gap has appeared to close considerably as the #5 seed Rockets took the Lakers to seven games, winning two games after Yao Ming went down with a broken foot. The Nuggets have stepped up their game winning eight of ten in the first two rounds, absolutely dominating the Hornets in round 1 and losing just a close game to the Mavericks in round 2. In the playoffs, the Nuggets are the only team to avoid a letdown game other than the Cavaliers. The Lakers, on the other hand, repeatedly have had letdown games, blowing a 17 point lead to the Jazz in round 1 for their only loss of the series and then dropping game 1 in LA to the Rockets. After Yao went down, the Rockets still won 2 of 4 games. The Lakers inconsistency shows the most in games 5, 6, and 7. In game 5, they won by 40 and were winning by 31 late in game 7, but in game 6, the Rockets dominated from start to finish to stretch the series. The Lakers are (should be) the best team in the West, but the best team is not supposed to play with such inconsistency and should have easily put away a Rockets team that was playing without its only two centers with Yao and Dikembe Mutumbo out. I was very disappointed with the Lakers in this series. While the Rockets matched up with the Lakers well, the way the Lakers lost some of those games was very disappointing. If the Lakers play this way against the Nuggets, they will lose this series before game 7.
In this series, the Nuggets could give the Lakers some matchup problems. Carmelo Anthony should be able to have his way with Luke Walton, but may have some difficulty when Trevor Ariza matches up with him. Chauncey Billups should also be able to have a good series with Derek Fisher matching up against him. Billups is better than Aaron Brooks who just finished dominating Fisher. In the post, the Lakers have Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom, and while all three have played well in the last few games, the Nuggets possess better interior defenders than the depleted Rockets. Nene, Kenyon Martin, and Chris Anderson supply a complementary package of energy, agility, and toughness. Nene will provide scoring and efficiency on the offensive end and contribute rebounds as well as over a steal and a block per game on the defensive end. Martin, of Mark Cuban’s comments aside, will provide physicality inside that Gasol and Bynum will not like. As skilled as the Lakers big men are, none are considered tough physical players. Martin will be able to take them out of their offensive games and will use his strength to score inside and grab some rebounds. Anderson is going to give the Lakers fits when they try to drive. He averaged 2.5 blocks per game in only 20 minutes and will not only match up well with any of the Lakers’ bigs, but will also make Kobe and the Lakers think twice about driving when he is waiting to swat their shot. J.R. Smith and Linas Kleiza join Anderson off the bench to create a much more formidable bench then the Rockets had. Both Smith and Kleiza can shoot the lights out when they get going, and Smith can match anyone in the league in athleticism. The weak link for the Nuggets is Dahntay Jones who will draw Kobe Bryant defensively. At 6’6”, Jones has the size to play with Kobe, and he showed his defensive quickness by containing Chris Paul in the first round, but Kobe is a different breed of scorer. If Jones can prevent Kobe from going for 30, the Nuggets should win, but if Kobe gets going, the Nuggets will be in trouble. The key for the Nuggets will be to shut down the post players. If Nene, Martin, and Anderson can harass Gasol, Bynum, and Odom, Kobe may have to average 40 a game for the Lakers to win. Don’t underestimate the importance of this matchup because the Nuggets have a legitimate chance of beating the Lakers if they can contain the post.
The Lakers, more than anything else in this series, need Bynum to show up. When they won big against Houston, Bynum had a productive game and stayed out of foul trouble. The games in which they struggled, Bynum didn’t play much with foul trouble. When the Lakers play to their potential, they are as good as anyone in the NBA, but they haven’t showed the ability to maintain that level of play. Championship teams have that killer instinct where they can put teams away quickly. The Lakers didn’t show that when Yao went down. The Lakers should have reeled off two straight to put that series away. Instead, the Rockets managed to split 4 games. If the Lakers can find their rhythm, they will win this series, but if the bench and Bynum continue to play inconsistently, Fisher continues to struggle, and even Kobe continues to have some letdown games, the Lakers will be sent home early and avoid a dream matchup with the Cavs.
Prediction- Nuggets in 7

Above the Rim: Playoff Update

The first round of the NBA playoffs gave us some blowouts (Cavs-Pistons, Nuggets-Hornets) and a classic (Bulls-Celtics). Overall, there was only one real upset, the Mavericks knocking off the shorthanded Spurs. With the second round kicking off yesterday, here is a look at the next round.

First round results:
Eastern Conference
Cavs in 4 (my prediction- Cavs in 5)
Celtics in 7 (me- Bulls in 6)
Magic in 6 (me- Magic in 6)
Hawks in 7 (me- Hawks in 5)
Western Conference
Lakers in 5 (me- Lakers in 5)
Nuggets in 5 (me- Nuggets in 5)
Mavericks in 5 (me- Mavericks in 7)
Rockets in 6 (me- Rockets in 6)

Eastern Conference
Cavaliers (1) vs. Hawks (4); regular season- Cavs 2-1
Prediction- Cavaliers in 5
The Cavs have not played since April 26th, but this is not a team to get lazy and by unprepared, despite the long layoff. The veterans on this team (Joe Smith and Zydrunas Ilgauskas for example), along with LeBron James, will not let this team suffer a letdown. I expect the Cavs to come out fired up on Tuesday for game 1 and pick up where they left off against the Pistons. With the first two games in Cleveland where the Cavs are 41-2, including the playoffs, this year, the Hawks could be in for a couple of long games. After a bruising seven game series against the Heat that left Al Horford and Marvin Williams battered, the Hawks will not be 100% for this series. The Hawks are an improvement over Detroit and should be competitive in two games in Atlanta where I expect them to give the Cavs their first loss of the playoffs, but Cleveland will end this series in game 5 back in Cleveland.
The Hawks do have a younger, more athletic team than the Pistons, but Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, and Mike Bibby will not be able to give the Cavs a serious test in round 2. The Cavs have too much talent and depth. With Delonte West and Mo Williams having rough opening series against Detroit, LeBron James played like a monster, but had solid support from Ilgauskas and Smith. Joe Smith (aka Joe Beast on his new rap album) showed why the Cavs picked him up after the Thunder bought him out. Smith was arguably the Cavs second best player in the series.
Look for Williams and West to bounce back in this series and LeBron to continue his dominance; he is playing like a man possessed right now. Smith, Bibby, and Johnson should make the series more competitive than the Pistons in round 1, but the Cavs are by far the superior team and are well rested. The chance of a sweep in this series is better than the Hawks chance at an upset.

Celtics (2) vs. Magic (3); regular season- 2-2 (Magic won the last two)
Prediction- Magic in 6
The Celtics were banged up going into the playoffs with Kevin Garnett, then they lost Leon Powe in their first round series with the Bulls. Stephon Marbury has not been effective since the Celtics picked him up. Point guard Rajon Rondo’s ankle may not be 100% either. On top of all this, the Celtics are coming off of a brutal seven game series with the Bulls that featured 4 overtime games and 7 overtime periods. The Magic are looking good after beating the Sixers in 6 games, including game 6 without Dwight Howard who was suspended. If the Magic can get their shooters (Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Rafer Alston) hot, they will be very tough to beat in the playoffs. Courtney Lee should be back from his fractured sinus and J.J. Reddick (15 points on 5-7 shooting from 3-point range) played well in game 6 when he replaced him in the starting lineup.
The Celtics will be tough in this series, but the extra time and hits from this series will wear on them as this series goes longer.
The most important match-up in this series is Kendrick Perkins against Dwight Howard. Perkins needs to stay out of foul trouble for the Celtics to win this series. Against the Bulls, the Celtics struggled without Perkins in the game because there was no interior defender to intimidate the Bulls. If Perkins misses time with foul trouble, Dwight Howard will have a monster series. If Perkins can play 40-45 minutes a game, the Celtics may have a chance to pull this series out. Any production offensively from Perkins would be nice, but if he can neutralize Howard’s impact in the paint and on the boards while picking up some rebounds and discouraging the rest of the Magic from driving, he could help the Celtics win this series. Without Perkins, the Celtics will have to get outstanding shooting from Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Eddie House to pull this one out. Even with good series from those shooters, the Celtics will have to contain the Magic’s stable of shooters as well. Expect a good series, but the Celtics will get worn down and lose the last few games to get eliminated.

Western Conference
Lakers (1) vs. Rockets (5); regular season- Lakers 4-0
Prediction- Lakers in 6
I know the Lakers swept the season series against the Rockets, but this Houston team has just started playing well together. Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowery have stepped up their games down the stretch after the Rockets traded Alston to the Magic, and the front line rotation of Shane Battier, Yao Ming, Luis Scola, and Ron Artest may be one of the strongest frontlines in the league. Those four players are what I think should scare the Lakers in this series. The Rockets just beat a very good Blazers team in just 5 games, and they will not be intimidated by the Lakers. The Rockets matchup with the Lakers very well defensively. Artest will make this series extremely frustrating for Kobe Bryant and if he needs a break, Battier is one of the best defensive players in the league. In the post, Yao’s length should bother Pau Gasol, and Luis Scola is tough and physical and should neutralize Andrew Bynum. That leaves Battier and Artest to guard Lamar Odom, another favorable matchup for the Rockets. Lakers point guard Derek Fisher should have an edge on Brooks and Lowery, and the Lakers bench of Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, Trevor Ariza, and Shannon Brown (and Luke Walton if he can play) should have their way with the Rockets bench of Von Wafer, Lowery, and Carl Landry.
For the Rockets to win this series, their veteran post players and Artest need to have big series both offensively and defensively. This team gets after it defensively, so the Rockets could make the series interesting, but overall, there isn’t enough firepower to knock off the Lakers. This will be the Lakers hardest series until the NBA finals though.
The Lakers will rely heavily on their stars, Kobe and Gasol, to pull them through the tough defense in this series. They have been here before and they want the burden of putting the team on their backs and leading them back to the finals. Fisher and Odom are also veterans that know what it takes to buckle down and do what it takes to get it done in the playoffs. But the key to this series will be how Kobe plays against Artest and how the Lakers bench plays against the Rockets. On paper, the Lakers should win these matchups and take the series, but Artest has played very well this season and could surprise everyone and play Kobe close to even. If that happens the Lakers will need their deep, but occasionally streaky bench to execute and give the Lakers the edge in this series. Don’t be surprised if this is a low scoring, physical series with a lot of close games. The Lakers should win, but if the Rockets get a couple of breaks early in the series, the Lakers could be in for a scare.

Nuggets (2) vs. Mavericks (6); regular season- 4-0 Nuggets; series currently 1-0 Denver
Prediction- Nuggets in 6
The Nuggets won the regular season matchup 4-0, but two of those games were decided by 2 points and a third by 3. The Mavericks were also banged up in the regular season, notably with Josh Howard battling injuries. The Mavs looked good in the opening round against the Spurs, winning in 5 games. Down the stretch and into the playoffs, the Mavericks started playing very well as they got healthy and are a dangerous 6 seed. However, the Mavs are only seven deep. They rely heavily on the scoring of Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, and 6th man Jason Terry and the dual point guard play of Jason Kidd and Jose Juan Barea. Erick Dampier and Brandon Bass are also key contributors for this team with Dampier providing toughness and rebounding in the post and Bass contributing off the bench. Antoine Wright also contributes, but the Mavs don’t expect much from the rest of their squad.
The Nuggets, on the other hand, have a ton of depth. Starters Chauncey Billups, Dahntay Jones, Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin, and Nene Hilario play together very well, and, with the exception of Jones, a defensive specialist, all are effective scorers. Off the bench, J.R. Smith matches Terry’s production, but the Nuggets add Linas Kleiza’s shooting, Anthony Carter’s ballhandling and penetrating ability, and Chris “Birdman” Anderson’s energy to the mix. The Mavericks have no answer for this trio of depth and versatility in skills. Anderson is the X-factor of this group as he can effectively shut down the lane when he is in the game. At 6’10” (without the mohawk) and a longer wingspan, Anderson controls the boards and has an affinity for blocking shots. While Kidd and Barea like to drive, they need to think twice with the Birdman waiting to swat their shots as soon as it leaves their hand. In game 1, Anderson picked up 11 points, but his 6 rebounds led the team and he also blocked 6 shots. With two point guards that like to penetrate, the Mavericks need to hope Anderson doesn’t do this every game or it could be a quick series. When you watch Anderson play, it appears that his favorite thing to do is block shots, which is probably why he picks up a few goaltending violations in many games, but that aggressiveness could win this series for the Nuggets.
Unless Nowitzki and Howard explode in this series, the Nuggets should continue to roll into a matchup with the Lakers, but they won’t average 20+ per victory over the Mavericks like they did against New Orleans. The Mavericks will keep the series competitive, but, like with the Lakers series, the bench will make the difference for the Nuggets leading to an intriguing matchup of deep teams in the Western Conference finals.