Above the Rim: NBA Finals Preview

Kobe Bryant will lead the Lakers against Superman Dwight Howard and the Magic in the NBA Finals. While the Magic won both regular season matchups, the Lakers will win this matchup for the championship, cementing Kobe’s legacy with his fourth championship and first without Shaquille O’Neal. Kobe’s detractors will finally have to give him his due and Phil Jackson will finally have his tenth title.

Conference Finals
Eastern- Magic in 6 (my pick- Cavaliers in 5)
Western- Lakers in 6 (my pick- Nuggets in 7)

If the Lakers play smart defensively by not double-teaming Dwight Howard down low, they should win this series easily. However, if they insist on double-teaming Howard, the Magic will make them pay by converting wide-open three-pointers, much like they did in defeating Cleveland. The Magic shot over 40% in three of their four wins in the series. The only time they didn’t shot 40%, they hit 39 of 51 free throws to make up for the lack of three pointers. The Lakers should focus on shutting down Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Rafer Alson, and Mickael Pietrus instead of Dwight Howard. If Howard scores 40 points, but the Magic only hit 5 or 6 three pointers, the Lakers will win the game. However, if the Magic can combine a 25-30 point game from Howard with 10 three pointers, the Lakers may lose this series.

Point Guard- Derek Fisher vs. Rafer Alston
Fisher hasn’t had the best playoffs offensively, but he is a veteran with finals experience which will help the Lakers in this series. Alston is a offensive, shooting point guard who had 18 point and 26 point games against the Cavs in games 3 and 4 of the conference finals. Fisher has scored in the double figures in only 3 of his last 13 games, but he is a savvy veteran and will make Alston work.
Advantage- Lakers

Shooting Guard- Kobe Bryant vs. Courtney Lee
Courtney Lee has hit some big shots for the Magic and has played well, but he is out of his league both offensively and defensively against Kobe. Lee has hit double figures just twice since his sinus injury while Kobe has scored under 20 just three times this postseason (and has scored 40+ three times). Kobe can take over a game, and Lee does not have the defensive skills to cover Kobe. Defensively Kobe will shut Lee down and shouldn’t have to exert himself too much to do so. This will allow Kobe to stay fresher during games and be more of a force offensively. At times against the Nuggets, Kobe looked tired and the Lakers needed Pau Gasol to carry the offensive load. This round, Kobe should be able to stay refreshed and take over when he has to.
Advantage- Lakers

Small Forward- Trevor Ariza vs. Hedo Turkoglu
Ariza is a shut down defender that has come on in the playoffs. He has sealed numerous games with his defense so far and provides enough offense to punish teams for not paying attention to him defensively. Turkoglu is a good player, but highly inconsistent. He can both score and pass, but has limited agility and could struggle with someone like Ariza guarding him. In the conference finals, Turkoglu struggled when LeBron, another lengthy, agile defender, was guarding him, so expect more of the same with Ariza matched up on Hedo.
Advantage- Lakers

Power Forward- Lamar Odom vs. Rashard Lewis
While Odom may not start for the Lakers, he is going to see the majority of minutes at the 4 because he presents the best matchup defensively on Lewis, a quick, athletic power forward with 3-point shooting range. Odom has the quickness and size to matchup on Lewis, something the Cavs lacked when LeBron was on Turkoglu. The Lakers have a better mix of athletic big men than the Cavs and should be able to matchup better defensively. Odom may also be able to score fairly routinely against Lewis as neither player is known for their defensive prowess. If Odom can score 2 points for every 3 points Lewis scores, the Lakers have to feel like that is a win because Kobe will make that up against Lee.
Advantage- Magic

Center- Pau Gasol vs. Dwight Howard
While the Lakers will play Andrew Bynum here at times, Gasol will get most of the minutes. Howard is going to play like a monster in the post, grabbing rebounds, blocking shots, and dunking. To neutralize his effect on the game, the Lakers should concentrate on keeping him off the offensive glass where a lot of his points come from put backs and to drive at him to get him in foul trouble. When the Cavs were effective against Orlando, it was when they were able to minimize Howard’s minutes and aggressiveness by getting him into foul trouble. Howard is going to score 20+ points and grab 12-15 rebounds and that should be ok with the Lakers. Howard scoring 30+ per game shouldn’t be a big deal unless the Magic shooters are hitting a lot of three-pointers. Gasol should also have a good series as his range will force Howard to step out of the paint defensively. Gasol is one of the most skilled big men in the league, and while he can’t match Howard’s strength or athleticism, his passing and shooting ability will be able to counter Howard’s effect.
Advantage- Magic

Bench- Lakers vs. Mickael Pietrus
The only bench player that really matters for Orlando is sniper Pietrus. He outscored Cleveland’s bench by himself in the conference finals, but the Lakers bench is deeper and more effective than the Cavs. Andrew Bynum, Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, Luke Walton, and Sasha Vujacic all give the Lakers quality minutes and offense off the bench. Not only should they be able to match Pietrus’s scoring off the bench, but they will be able to keep the Lakers’ starters fresh while Pietrus will only be able to give Turkoglu, Alston, and Lee breathers. The Lakers have Walton and Bynum down low to spell Gasol and Odom, while the Magic only have Marcin Gortat and Tony Battie to play in the post. Walton and Bynum both have a wide advantage offensively over Gortat and Battie, and Walton has the agility to defend either Lewis or Turkoglu on the perimeter. Vujacic and Brown are both offensive powder kegs that can score in bunched if they get hit, much like Pietrus. Overall, the Lakers have more impact players off the bench and should win this battle.
Advantage- Lakers

The Lakers have the advantage at both guard positions and off the bench, while the Magic own an advantage on the frontline. However, the Lakers advantage at both guard positions is fairly wide, while the margin at small forward and power forward is almost a push because the Lakers matchup well with the Magic at those positions. While the Magic have more skill, the Lakers may be able to neutralize it. While the Magic have Superman in the middle, Gasol is an all-star as well and should be able to counter most of Howard’s offense. Off the bench, if Pietrus has an off game, the Lakers will have a wide advantage in bench scoring and will win that matchup.

Prediction- Lakers in 6, MVP Kobe Bryant

Above the Rim: Conference Finals Edition

Four questions heading into the Conference Finals:
Can anyone beat the Cavaliers?
Are the Lakers going to start playing to their potential?
Can Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony lead the Nuggets to an upset?
Can the Magic hit enough threes to overcome LeBron and the Cavs?

Second Round Results:
Eastern Conference
Cavaliers v. Hawks- Cavs in 4 (my prediction- Cavs in 5)
Celtics v. Magic- Magic in 7 (me- Magic in 6)
Western Conference
Lakers v. Rockets- Lakers in 7 (me- Lakers in 6)
Nuggets v. Mavericks- Nuggets in 5 (me- Nuggets in 6)

Eastern Conference Finals
Cavaliers (1) v. Magic (3)- Magic win regular season 2-1 (home team won every game)
The Magic won the regular season matchup between these two teams, but a few things change in the playoffs. The Cavs will have 4 home games if the series goes to seven games, and the Magic did not win in Cleveland this year. Also, the Cavs have elevated their game to an entirely different level in the playoffs. Actually, since February 11, the Cavs are 35-4 (including 8-0 in the playoffs) and one of those losses was a season ending loss to the 76ers in which LeBron James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Mo Williams didn’t play. Additionally, the Cavs lost two in a row only twice all season, meaning the Magic almost have to win game 1 to take the series.
If the Cavs continue to play at the level they have been at all playoffs, this will be a short series. The Cavs are only giving up 78.125 points per game in the playoffs with their opponents’ high being only 85 (by the Hawks in game 3). The opponent has scored over 80 points in only 4 of 8 games. The offense, on the other hand, has averaged 94.875 so far in the playoffs and scored under 90 only twice. One of the best signs for the Cavs is how well they have played as a team. LeBron and Delonte West have both increased their scoring averages in the playoffs, but Williams, Ilgauskas, and Anderson Varejao are well below their averages. The reason the Cavs have overcome this is because their team defense has absolutely throttled the opposition and because at least one Cavalier has stepped up in each game of the playoffs. West has scored over 20 points twice, Joe Smith played like a monster in the Pistons series, and Wally Szczerbiak scored 17 in game 2 against Atlanta. Also, while Williams has scored over 20 points in 3 games, he has been inconsistent thus far in the playoffs, averaging only 14.7 points per game. However, even when Mo is having an off game, he still hits big shots. For example, despite scoring only 12 points and turning the ball over 4 times in game 4 against Atlanta, he hit 4 of 7 three-pointers including a big three to seal the win. The Cavs team mentality has allowed them to win big despite not everyone playing well currently. Despite the decrease in scoring from some of their key players, this is by far the best any team has played all season long.
The Magic need everything to click to beat the Cavs in this series. Dwight Howard should be able to score 20 points per game against Ilguaskas, Varejao, Smith, and Ben Wallace, but with 4 post players, the Cavs have 24 fouls to use on Howard to force him to the free throw line. The Cavs will be focused more on containing the Magic’s stable of perimeter shooters. To overcome the Cavs suffocating defense, the Magic will need Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Rafer Alston, Mickael Pietrus, Courtney Lee, and J.J. Redick to consistently hit their shots from three point range. The Magic relied heavily on the 3 in the regular season, hitting 10 of 26 per game for just over 38%. In the playoffs, they are 7.3 of 22.6 for 32.5%. To beat Cleveland, they will need to shoot closer to 38% because the Cavs will stifle the Magic’s offense. If the Magic can shoot consistently from the perimeter, they have a chance to knock Cleveland off, but if they are around 33%, the Cavs will win this series.
Prediction- Cavs in 5

Western Conference Finals
Lakers (1) v. Nuggets (2)- Lakers win regular season 3-1
In the regular season, there was a wide gap between the #1 seed Lakers and the rest of the West. In the playoffs, the gap has appeared to close considerably as the #5 seed Rockets took the Lakers to seven games, winning two games after Yao Ming went down with a broken foot. The Nuggets have stepped up their game winning eight of ten in the first two rounds, absolutely dominating the Hornets in round 1 and losing just a close game to the Mavericks in round 2. In the playoffs, the Nuggets are the only team to avoid a letdown game other than the Cavaliers. The Lakers, on the other hand, repeatedly have had letdown games, blowing a 17 point lead to the Jazz in round 1 for their only loss of the series and then dropping game 1 in LA to the Rockets. After Yao went down, the Rockets still won 2 of 4 games. The Lakers inconsistency shows the most in games 5, 6, and 7. In game 5, they won by 40 and were winning by 31 late in game 7, but in game 6, the Rockets dominated from start to finish to stretch the series. The Lakers are (should be) the best team in the West, but the best team is not supposed to play with such inconsistency and should have easily put away a Rockets team that was playing without its only two centers with Yao and Dikembe Mutumbo out. I was very disappointed with the Lakers in this series. While the Rockets matched up with the Lakers well, the way the Lakers lost some of those games was very disappointing. If the Lakers play this way against the Nuggets, they will lose this series before game 7.
In this series, the Nuggets could give the Lakers some matchup problems. Carmelo Anthony should be able to have his way with Luke Walton, but may have some difficulty when Trevor Ariza matches up with him. Chauncey Billups should also be able to have a good series with Derek Fisher matching up against him. Billups is better than Aaron Brooks who just finished dominating Fisher. In the post, the Lakers have Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom, and while all three have played well in the last few games, the Nuggets possess better interior defenders than the depleted Rockets. Nene, Kenyon Martin, and Chris Anderson supply a complementary package of energy, agility, and toughness. Nene will provide scoring and efficiency on the offensive end and contribute rebounds as well as over a steal and a block per game on the defensive end. Martin, of Mark Cuban’s comments aside, will provide physicality inside that Gasol and Bynum will not like. As skilled as the Lakers big men are, none are considered tough physical players. Martin will be able to take them out of their offensive games and will use his strength to score inside and grab some rebounds. Anderson is going to give the Lakers fits when they try to drive. He averaged 2.5 blocks per game in only 20 minutes and will not only match up well with any of the Lakers’ bigs, but will also make Kobe and the Lakers think twice about driving when he is waiting to swat their shot. J.R. Smith and Linas Kleiza join Anderson off the bench to create a much more formidable bench then the Rockets had. Both Smith and Kleiza can shoot the lights out when they get going, and Smith can match anyone in the league in athleticism. The weak link for the Nuggets is Dahntay Jones who will draw Kobe Bryant defensively. At 6’6”, Jones has the size to play with Kobe, and he showed his defensive quickness by containing Chris Paul in the first round, but Kobe is a different breed of scorer. If Jones can prevent Kobe from going for 30, the Nuggets should win, but if Kobe gets going, the Nuggets will be in trouble. The key for the Nuggets will be to shut down the post players. If Nene, Martin, and Anderson can harass Gasol, Bynum, and Odom, Kobe may have to average 40 a game for the Lakers to win. Don’t underestimate the importance of this matchup because the Nuggets have a legitimate chance of beating the Lakers if they can contain the post.
The Lakers, more than anything else in this series, need Bynum to show up. When they won big against Houston, Bynum had a productive game and stayed out of foul trouble. The games in which they struggled, Bynum didn’t play much with foul trouble. When the Lakers play to their potential, they are as good as anyone in the NBA, but they haven’t showed the ability to maintain that level of play. Championship teams have that killer instinct where they can put teams away quickly. The Lakers didn’t show that when Yao went down. The Lakers should have reeled off two straight to put that series away. Instead, the Rockets managed to split 4 games. If the Lakers can find their rhythm, they will win this series, but if the bench and Bynum continue to play inconsistently, Fisher continues to struggle, and even Kobe continues to have some letdown games, the Lakers will be sent home early and avoid a dream matchup with the Cavs.
Prediction- Nuggets in 7

And Now You Know!: As Balanced As a D Nug

I was going to write about Brett Favre this week but I wasn't in the mood to talk about mediocrity. Then the news of Manny Ramirez came and I just didn't feel like writing anything baseball realted (SportsJudge founder Marc Edelman tackled the Manny Ramirez fantasy fallout here and here). So, I decided instead to write about the Nuggets (once again).

What amazes me so much about the Nuggets is their lack of that go-to-scorer. Of course there is Carmello Anthony, Chauncey Billups, and J.R Smith, Nene, and Kenyon Martin. But what gets me is that ALL of these players average over 10 ppg this season, and then there is Linus Kleiza who averaged 9.9 ppg. So essentially that means that the Nuggets have six guys who scored over 10 ppg this year, an unheard of figure when it comes to championship teams.

Looking at the previous champions, one would have to go back 20 years to the 1989-90 Detroit Pistons to find a championship team that had five players average 10+ ppg in a season, and in fact they had a sixth guy who averaged 9.8 ppg that season. The Pistons lineup included Isaiah Thomas, Joe Dumars, James Edwards, Mark Aguirre, Bill Laimbeer, and the sixth man was Vinnie Johnson.

Something else I find unique about this year's Nuggets team is that they had no player who averaged more than 8 rpg. You'd have to go back to the 1990-91 Bulls to find a team that had a Championship team that had a leading rebounder with fewer than 9.2 rpg. That year Horace Grant led the team with 8.4 rpg throughout the regular season.

The Nuggets would be just the 4th team in the past 20 years to win a championship while allowing more than 100 ppg (100.9) and have the smallest margin of victory (3.4) since the Lakers in 2000-01. This year's Nuggets were better than their opponents in ever single statistical catagory except FT% and Offensive Rebounds yet everyone is talking about the Lakers.

The most important player on this team who receives the least amount of credit would be Chris Andersen. Andersen comes off the bench and averages over 20 mpg. Andersen has a story, though. The Birdman went undrafted after dropping out of the University of Houston and playing one year at Blinn Community College, coming from a broken home. From college he went ot play in the International Basketball League, the International Basketball Association and the Chinese Basketball League (against Yao Ming) for a few years before the Nuggets took a try at him.

The story most know is that this man entered the slam dunk contest, failed miserably, and soon after was banned from the NBA for 2-years after violating the anti-drug policy. Andersen came back to the Hornets for 5 games in 2007-08 before becoming a free agent and signing a 4-year deal with the Nuggets before this season.

Andersen credits his success this year to all the doubters. He finished second in the league in blocks per game with 2.5 (D. Howard 2.9), yet received just one vote for either All-Defensive team this year. Big men such as Kendrick Perkins, Udonis Haslem, and Trevor Ariza received more votes than Andersen for the All-Defensive team. In fact, three of his teammates received more votes for the All-Defensive team than Andersen did.



It's funny to watch the Birdman play, and no sooner than you can say, "What is this guy doing on the court?" does Andersen block a shot.

But I am getting ahead of myself. There is still a series to be played against the Mavericks and then the Rockets/Lakers. But should the Nuggets get to the Finals, as I predict they will, ESPN/ABC will be running specials on the Birdman. I'd like to believe that they'd be reading this article here to find out just how underrated he is.

And Now You Know! (And Knowing is Half the Battle)

Above the Rim: Playoff Update

The first round of the NBA playoffs gave us some blowouts (Cavs-Pistons, Nuggets-Hornets) and a classic (Bulls-Celtics). Overall, there was only one real upset, the Mavericks knocking off the shorthanded Spurs. With the second round kicking off yesterday, here is a look at the next round.

First round results:
Eastern Conference
Cavs in 4 (my prediction- Cavs in 5)
Celtics in 7 (me- Bulls in 6)
Magic in 6 (me- Magic in 6)
Hawks in 7 (me- Hawks in 5)
Western Conference
Lakers in 5 (me- Lakers in 5)
Nuggets in 5 (me- Nuggets in 5)
Mavericks in 5 (me- Mavericks in 7)
Rockets in 6 (me- Rockets in 6)

Eastern Conference
Cavaliers (1) vs. Hawks (4); regular season- Cavs 2-1
Prediction- Cavaliers in 5
The Cavs have not played since April 26th, but this is not a team to get lazy and by unprepared, despite the long layoff. The veterans on this team (Joe Smith and Zydrunas Ilgauskas for example), along with LeBron James, will not let this team suffer a letdown. I expect the Cavs to come out fired up on Tuesday for game 1 and pick up where they left off against the Pistons. With the first two games in Cleveland where the Cavs are 41-2, including the playoffs, this year, the Hawks could be in for a couple of long games. After a bruising seven game series against the Heat that left Al Horford and Marvin Williams battered, the Hawks will not be 100% for this series. The Hawks are an improvement over Detroit and should be competitive in two games in Atlanta where I expect them to give the Cavs their first loss of the playoffs, but Cleveland will end this series in game 5 back in Cleveland.
The Hawks do have a younger, more athletic team than the Pistons, but Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, and Mike Bibby will not be able to give the Cavs a serious test in round 2. The Cavs have too much talent and depth. With Delonte West and Mo Williams having rough opening series against Detroit, LeBron James played like a monster, but had solid support from Ilgauskas and Smith. Joe Smith (aka Joe Beast on his new rap album) showed why the Cavs picked him up after the Thunder bought him out. Smith was arguably the Cavs second best player in the series.
Look for Williams and West to bounce back in this series and LeBron to continue his dominance; he is playing like a man possessed right now. Smith, Bibby, and Johnson should make the series more competitive than the Pistons in round 1, but the Cavs are by far the superior team and are well rested. The chance of a sweep in this series is better than the Hawks chance at an upset.

Celtics (2) vs. Magic (3); regular season- 2-2 (Magic won the last two)
Prediction- Magic in 6
The Celtics were banged up going into the playoffs with Kevin Garnett, then they lost Leon Powe in their first round series with the Bulls. Stephon Marbury has not been effective since the Celtics picked him up. Point guard Rajon Rondo’s ankle may not be 100% either. On top of all this, the Celtics are coming off of a brutal seven game series with the Bulls that featured 4 overtime games and 7 overtime periods. The Magic are looking good after beating the Sixers in 6 games, including game 6 without Dwight Howard who was suspended. If the Magic can get their shooters (Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Rafer Alston) hot, they will be very tough to beat in the playoffs. Courtney Lee should be back from his fractured sinus and J.J. Reddick (15 points on 5-7 shooting from 3-point range) played well in game 6 when he replaced him in the starting lineup.
The Celtics will be tough in this series, but the extra time and hits from this series will wear on them as this series goes longer.
The most important match-up in this series is Kendrick Perkins against Dwight Howard. Perkins needs to stay out of foul trouble for the Celtics to win this series. Against the Bulls, the Celtics struggled without Perkins in the game because there was no interior defender to intimidate the Bulls. If Perkins misses time with foul trouble, Dwight Howard will have a monster series. If Perkins can play 40-45 minutes a game, the Celtics may have a chance to pull this series out. Any production offensively from Perkins would be nice, but if he can neutralize Howard’s impact in the paint and on the boards while picking up some rebounds and discouraging the rest of the Magic from driving, he could help the Celtics win this series. Without Perkins, the Celtics will have to get outstanding shooting from Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Eddie House to pull this one out. Even with good series from those shooters, the Celtics will have to contain the Magic’s stable of shooters as well. Expect a good series, but the Celtics will get worn down and lose the last few games to get eliminated.

Western Conference
Lakers (1) vs. Rockets (5); regular season- Lakers 4-0
Prediction- Lakers in 6
I know the Lakers swept the season series against the Rockets, but this Houston team has just started playing well together. Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowery have stepped up their games down the stretch after the Rockets traded Alston to the Magic, and the front line rotation of Shane Battier, Yao Ming, Luis Scola, and Ron Artest may be one of the strongest frontlines in the league. Those four players are what I think should scare the Lakers in this series. The Rockets just beat a very good Blazers team in just 5 games, and they will not be intimidated by the Lakers. The Rockets matchup with the Lakers very well defensively. Artest will make this series extremely frustrating for Kobe Bryant and if he needs a break, Battier is one of the best defensive players in the league. In the post, Yao’s length should bother Pau Gasol, and Luis Scola is tough and physical and should neutralize Andrew Bynum. That leaves Battier and Artest to guard Lamar Odom, another favorable matchup for the Rockets. Lakers point guard Derek Fisher should have an edge on Brooks and Lowery, and the Lakers bench of Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, Trevor Ariza, and Shannon Brown (and Luke Walton if he can play) should have their way with the Rockets bench of Von Wafer, Lowery, and Carl Landry.
For the Rockets to win this series, their veteran post players and Artest need to have big series both offensively and defensively. This team gets after it defensively, so the Rockets could make the series interesting, but overall, there isn’t enough firepower to knock off the Lakers. This will be the Lakers hardest series until the NBA finals though.
The Lakers will rely heavily on their stars, Kobe and Gasol, to pull them through the tough defense in this series. They have been here before and they want the burden of putting the team on their backs and leading them back to the finals. Fisher and Odom are also veterans that know what it takes to buckle down and do what it takes to get it done in the playoffs. But the key to this series will be how Kobe plays against Artest and how the Lakers bench plays against the Rockets. On paper, the Lakers should win these matchups and take the series, but Artest has played very well this season and could surprise everyone and play Kobe close to even. If that happens the Lakers will need their deep, but occasionally streaky bench to execute and give the Lakers the edge in this series. Don’t be surprised if this is a low scoring, physical series with a lot of close games. The Lakers should win, but if the Rockets get a couple of breaks early in the series, the Lakers could be in for a scare.

Nuggets (2) vs. Mavericks (6); regular season- 4-0 Nuggets; series currently 1-0 Denver
Prediction- Nuggets in 6
The Nuggets won the regular season matchup 4-0, but two of those games were decided by 2 points and a third by 3. The Mavericks were also banged up in the regular season, notably with Josh Howard battling injuries. The Mavs looked good in the opening round against the Spurs, winning in 5 games. Down the stretch and into the playoffs, the Mavericks started playing very well as they got healthy and are a dangerous 6 seed. However, the Mavs are only seven deep. They rely heavily on the scoring of Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, and 6th man Jason Terry and the dual point guard play of Jason Kidd and Jose Juan Barea. Erick Dampier and Brandon Bass are also key contributors for this team with Dampier providing toughness and rebounding in the post and Bass contributing off the bench. Antoine Wright also contributes, but the Mavs don’t expect much from the rest of their squad.
The Nuggets, on the other hand, have a ton of depth. Starters Chauncey Billups, Dahntay Jones, Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin, and Nene Hilario play together very well, and, with the exception of Jones, a defensive specialist, all are effective scorers. Off the bench, J.R. Smith matches Terry’s production, but the Nuggets add Linas Kleiza’s shooting, Anthony Carter’s ballhandling and penetrating ability, and Chris “Birdman” Anderson’s energy to the mix. The Mavericks have no answer for this trio of depth and versatility in skills. Anderson is the X-factor of this group as he can effectively shut down the lane when he is in the game. At 6’10” (without the mohawk) and a longer wingspan, Anderson controls the boards and has an affinity for blocking shots. While Kidd and Barea like to drive, they need to think twice with the Birdman waiting to swat their shots as soon as it leaves their hand. In game 1, Anderson picked up 11 points, but his 6 rebounds led the team and he also blocked 6 shots. With two point guards that like to penetrate, the Mavericks need to hope Anderson doesn’t do this every game or it could be a quick series. When you watch Anderson play, it appears that his favorite thing to do is block shots, which is probably why he picks up a few goaltending violations in many games, but that aggressiveness could win this series for the Nuggets.
Unless Nowitzki and Howard explode in this series, the Nuggets should continue to roll into a matchup with the Lakers, but they won’t average 20+ per victory over the Mavericks like they did against New Orleans. The Mavericks will keep the series competitive, but, like with the Lakers series, the bench will make the difference for the Nuggets leading to an intriguing matchup of deep teams in the Western Conference finals.

And Now You Know!: It's Pronounced "Lee-ver"

I am simply amazed at this first round series between the Bulls and the Celtics. ESPN and all other sports outlets have made a huge hyperbole out of the first six games that game 7 will most likely be a 15-point blowout. And now that there are talks of Kevin Garnett pulling a Willis Reed things can only get more interesting.

The key to this series has been the point guard battle between Rajon Rondo and rookie Derrick Rose. Let's look at a few of their numbers:

This year Rose, as a rookie, did what very few point guards can do in a season. Rose had 16.8 ppg, 6.3 apg, and just 2.5 turnovers a game. Only 20 other players in NBA history have accomplished that feat. And how about what Rose is doing in the playoffs right now? Rose is averaging 20 ppg, 7 apg, and 6.7 rpg, something that only two other players have maintained over their playoff career.

And let's not forget about Rajon Rondo who is averaging a triple-double in this year's playoffs. Only one other player has ever maintained a triple-double in the playoffs with fewer than 3 turnovers a game while playing six or more games, that man was Magic Johnson.

But with all that said about Rondo and Rose, there is one man who paces these two men when it comes to all around point guards, assists, and lack of turnovers. His name is Fat Lever.

Lever was drafted by the Portalnd Trail Blazers in 1982 and played for three teams over an 11-year career. Lever's stats might not jump out at you as he never lead the league in scoring or assists, thanks in large part to Magic Johnson, John Stockton, Mark Jackson, and Michael Jordan. The two-time all-star did have three separate seasons though in which he had 18+ ppg, 7+ apg, 6+ rpg, and -3 tpg. Only two other players in NBA history can claim they have had those numbers (Gary Payton, LeBron James). Lever did it during three consecutive seasons while the other two players only did it once.

More impressive is that Fat is just one of three players to ever have 15+ points/rebounds/assists in a single playoff game, mind you he was just 6-foot-3. Unfortunately his career though was cut short because of a knee injury but many guards today still look to Fat as an example as an all-around complete player. Many players can put up the numbers on offense but are sloppy with the ball and accept turning it over 7+ times a game. Lever valued every possession and was one of the best at his position. His career in the 80s will always be overshadowed by the likes of other Hall of Fame guards.



And Now You Know! (And Knowing is Half the Battle)

Above the Rim: Playoff Preview

With three 62 win teams this season in the NBA, the Finals appear to be shaping up for an epic battle. We are either looking at a rematch of the 62 win Celtics and the 65 win Lakers or a showdown of LeBron and the 66 win Cavaliers and Kobe and the Lakers. The road to get to this showdown should be entertaining as well. In the West, all 8 seeds have won at least 48 games with six teams winning 50. While the East is not as deep and balanced, the field is stronger than past years with 7 (which is actually an improvement over past years) teams finishing .500 and two 60 win teams. The top three seeds, Cleveland, Boston, and Orlando, should give us round after round of titanic clashes to keep our interest high for the NBA’s grueling 40 games in 40 nights marathon.

Eastern Conference
Cavaliers (1) v. Pistons (8)- Cavs win season series 3-1; series 1-0 Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are the front-runner coming out of the Eastern Conference. After enduring injuries to 3 starters this season, the team is finally 100% heading into the playoffs as Ben Wallace returned for Game 1 against the Pistons. The Cavs may be the deepest team in the East with starters LeBron James (28.4 points per game), Mo Williams (17.8 ppg), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (12.9 ppg), Delonte West (11.7 ppg), and Anderson Varejao (8.6 ppg) all contributing at both ends of the court. Off the bench, the Cavs add Daniel Gibson (7.8 ppg), Wally Szczerbiak (7 ppg), Joe Smith (6.5 ppg), and Sasha Pavlovic (4.6 ppg) to provide scoring and perimeter shooting as well as Ben Wallace and Darnell Jackson for rebounding and toughness. Put it all together and you get the best record in the NBA as well as the league’s best defense, finishing first in opponent’s points per game, first in opponent’s FG% and first in opponent’s 3-point %. By scoring 100.3 points per game on offense, the Cavs also have the league’s widest margin of victory. Finally, with a 39-2 record at home and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, it will be difficult to knock the Cavs off.
Detroit is definitely not the team that can beat the Cavs. The Cavs have won the last 3 games between the two teams leading into the playoffs and held the Pistons to 80 points or less in all three games, which they managed to top with 84 in game 1. Although the Pistons have made the last 5 Conference Championship series, that streak will end this season. Richard Hamilton (18.3 ppg), Tayshaun Prince (14.2 ppg), and Rodney Stuckey (13.4 ppg) could score enough to steal a game in Detroit, but the aging Antonio McDyess and the volatile Rasheed Wallace will be ineffective in this series against the Cavs depth and versatility in the post. For Detroit, this series will give Stuckey and Bynum some experience that might help the Pistons rebound back to contention next season.
Prediction- Cavs in 5; the Pistons will win one game in Detroit, but this series will not be close. The most entertaining things to watch for in this series will be LeBron’s highlight reel and the countdown for a Rasheed Wallace technical (I’m predicting at least 2).

Celtics (2) v. Bulls (7)- Boston wins season 2-1; series 1-0 Bulls
The Bulls are a very dangerous team heading into the playoffs. They remade their entire team with some trades in February and the team has been pretty hot since then. The Bulls went 5-1 in April and then knocked off the Celtics in overtime to open their playoff series. Since the trade, the Bulls have become much deeper and are one of the better offensive teams in the Eastern Conference by averaging over 102 points per game. Shooting Guard Ben Gordon leads the way with 20.7 points per game. Acquisitions John Salmons (18.3 ppg) and Brad Miller (11.8 ppg) have blended well with holdovers like Gordon, Rookie of the Year candidate Derrick Rose (16.8 ppg), the much improved Tyrus Thomas (10.9) and back-up guard Kirk Hinrich (10.4 ppg). Big man Joakim Noah contributes 9.9 ppg and energetic play on defense and on the offensive boards.
The Bulls new found depth counters the Celtics shrinking roster. Kevin Garnett missing this series is going to hurt the Celtics a lot more than most people think. They needed his toughness, both physically and mentally, to compete with Miller, Thomas, and Noah down low. While Glen Davis is skilled, when things don’t go right, he can get frustrated very easily and get taken out of his game. The Celtics are going to need huge series from stars Paul Pierce (20.5 ppg) and Ray Allen (15.8 ppg) to hang with the Bulls. Other starters Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins will need to step up their games to counter offensive output of the Bulls. Bench players Eddie House and Leon Powe will also be big in this series. House is the third guard in the Celtics rotation. If he plays well, the Celtics should be able to play with the Bulls dynamic backcourt. If House has a poor series, then Gordon, Rose, and Hinrich could really hurt the Celtics by outscoring Allen and Rondo. Powe will need to be big to make up for the loss of Garnett in the post. Despite the Celtics winning 62 games this season, this series is very dangerous for Boston. The Bulls beat Boston 127-121 the only time they played since the trade. Garnett also missed that game. This series looks exactly the same with the Bulls playing well with their new rotation and the Celtics thin with Garnett hurt.
Prediction- Bulls in 6; this will be the upset of the playoffs. The Bulls will take advantage of the absence of Garnett. In the second round, the Bulls will push the Cavs more than any team in the East before losing.

Magic (3) v. 76ers (6)- Orlando wins season 3-0; series 1-0 Sixers
This is one of the more lopsided matchups in the playoffs. The Magic, with Dwight Howard and awesome 3-point shooting, against the Sixers, whose best post player is Samuel Dalembert and one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league.
Even with PG Jameer Nelson out, the Magic still have Howard (20.6 points per game), Rashard Lewis (17.7 ppg and 39.7% from 3-point range), Hedo Turkoglu (16.8 ppg and 35.6% from three), and Rafer Alston (12 ppg and 31.7% from 3). After those four, role players Mickael Pietrus, Courtney Lee, JJ Redick, Keith Bogans, and Anthony Johnson all average between 4.8 and 9.4 ppg and shoot between 33.3% and 40.4% from three point range. That depth will give the 76ers fits in this series. With Howard’s rebounding and shot-blocking and the Magic averaging 101.1 points per game, the Magic are one of the more complete and dangerous teams in the playoffs.
On the other side, The Sixers shoot only 31.8% from three-point range as a team with veteran backup Donyell Marshall (45.5%) the only player shooting over 35%. Also, while Dalembert blocks 1.8 shots per game, his 6.4 points per game is not going to come close to matching Howard’s production and he will not be able to contain Howard defensively. The Sixers will rely on the shooting and penetration of Andre Iguodala (18.8 points per game), Andre Miller (16.3 ppg), Thaddeus Young (15.3 ppg) and Louis Williams (12.8 ppg). The good news for the Sixers is that all four of these players are capable of scoring consistently and that their versatility on the perimeter may contain the Magic’s abundance of shooters. Also, although the Magic won all three matchups this season, 2 in Philadelphia, the margins were 10, 6, and 2, so the Sixers were able to keep the games close. However, the Sixers lost 6 in a row in April before beating the Cavs’ 2nd and 3rd string in the season finale to back into the playoffs.
In this series, the Sixers need to contain the outside shooting of the Magic and get a lot of scoring from Miller, Iguodala, Young, and Williams to win. Howard is going to average at least 22 points, 14 rebounds, and a few blocks no matter how well Dalembert can guard him. The key will be to keep Howard from going for 35-15 on a consistent basis.
Prediction- Magic in 6; if the Sixers can keep games close and not rely on three pointers to get back in the game, they should be able to extend the series. (after writing this article, I saw that the Sixers took game 1, 100-98. The Sixers shot 58.3% from three-point range and overcame Howard scoring 31 points and getting 16 rebounds. Miller, Iguodala, Young, and Williams combined for 57 points.)

Hawks (4) v. Heat (5)- Atlanta wins season 3-1; series 1-0 Hawks
The Hawks gained invaluable experience in their 7 game series with the Celtics last year. This season, it showed as they improved to 47 wins and the #4 seed in the East. Home court advantage will be big in this series as the Hawks won both games in Atlanta between these teams this season and split two games in Miami. Guards Joe Johnson (21.4 points per game), Mike Bibby (14.9 ppg), and Flip Murray (12.2 ppg) can all create their own shot on offense and post players Josh Smith (14.9 ppg), Marvin Williams (13.9 ppg), and Al Horford (11.5 ppg) can all score around the basket. The Hawks biggest weakness is the drop off in production after those six players. Maurice Evans (7.2 ppg) and Zaza Pachulia (6.3 ppg) are the only other players that average more than 3 points per game. Defensively, Horford and Smith combine for 3 blocks per game and can affect numerous shots with their athleticism.
The Heat, as Charles Barkley claims, are Michael Jackson and a bunch of Titos. They need Dwayne Wade to absolutely dominate this series to have any chance to win. The Heat do have some adequate scoring behind Wade, but their team goes as he goes. Michael Beasley (13.9 ppg), Jermaine O’Neal (13 ppg), Udonis Haslem (10.6 ppg), Mario Chalmers (10 ppg), and 6th Man Daequan Cook (9.2 ppg) will need to play well for the Heat to hang with the Hawks. Even if Wade scores 30 points per game, the Heat will need a big series from at least one or two of these other players to win the series. Defensively, Wade and O’Neal should be able to match the Hawks athletic front court with about 3 blocks per game.
During the regular season, Atlanta won 3 of 4 against Miami, including one in Miami (the home team won the other three. The margin was within 8 points in all 4 games. However, the Heat did not make the playoffs last season and their young roster does not have the postseason experience that the Hawks boast after last season’s playoffs.
Prediction- Hawks in 5; Wade gets the Heat one victory, but he can’t carry the Heat to an upset in the series.

Eastern Conference Finals
Cavaliers v. Magic- Cavs in 6
The Magic and the Cavs have played each other well this season, but the Magic were not able to defeat the Cavs in Cleveland. LeBron takes his game to the next level in the playoffs and the Cavs are finally healthy for the first time since the first few months of the season. Orlando won the season series 2-1 with the home team winning all three games. However, the Cavs were banged up in both losses. With a healthy team smelling the postseason, the Cavs will take their game to the next level and knock off the Magic.

Western Conference
Lakers (1) v. Jazz (8)- LA wins season 2-1; series 1-0 Lakers
The Jazz have only won 2 road games against teams that finished the regular season with a .500 record (at Philadelphia in November and at New Orleans in April). Overall Utah is just 15-26 on the road. That isn’t a good sign for a team that will need to win at least one game in Los Angeles where the Lakers were 36-5 this season. The matchup isn’t good for the Jazz either. While Deron Williams will be able to play his game and control Derek Fisher, Utah has no answer for Kobe. Ronnie Brewer will have to play the series of his life to contain Bryant and hold him under 25 points per game and even if he does, Utah will still need its quintet of post players to prevent Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom from scoring easy buckets around the hoop. While Mehmet Okur (17 points per game), Carlos Boozer (16.2 ppg in 37 games), Paul Millsap (13.5 ppg), and Andrei Kirilenko (11.6 ppg) all scored in double figures this year and Matt Harpring (4.4 ppg) provided energy and toughness down low as well, these players don’t have the size to stop the Lakers down low and Kirilenko may be the only one agile enough to stay with Trevor Ariza.
On the other hand, the Lakers have been playing extremely well in the second half of the season and are welcoming Andrew Bynum back into the lineup after he missed a sizeable part of the season with a knee injury. After rehabbing with some Playboy bunnies, Bynum looks to be ready to contribute in the playoffs and return to his 14.3 point, 8 rebound, and 1.8 block performances. Add that level of contribution to Kobe (26.8 ppg), Gasol (18.9 ppg), Odom (11.4 ppg), Fisher (9.9 ppg), and Ariza (8.9 ppg), and the Lakers look to be one of the more dynamic offenses in the West, averaging 106.9 points per game this season, good for third in the NBA and first among playoff teams. Couple that with the Jazz surrendering 100.9 points per game, one of only 3 playoff teams to give up over 100 (Chicago and Denver), and this could be a quick, ugly series.
For the Jazz to win this series, they need Boozer to quickly return to all-star form, which has not happened yet this season. Maybe the motivation of free agency will entice Boozer again, as it has in the past. Additionally, the Jazz need big series on offense from Williams and defense from Brewer. If Brewer can contain Kobe and cause him to force bad shots (which Kobe does fall into from time to time) the Jazz might be able to stay close in this series. Finally, if Andrew Bynum is not effective coming back from his injury, that could also close the gap. Even if all of these “ifs” happen, it will still be an uphill battle for the Jazz to win this series. The Lakers have home court and an unbelievable amount of depth.
Prediction- Lakers in 5, the Jazz will win one in Salt Lake City, but most of the losses will be by double-digits.

Nuggets (2) v. Hornets (7)- season tied 2-2; series 1-0 Nuggets
Homecourt advantage will not have as big an effect on this series as both teams were 21-20 on the road and were difficult to beat at home. The Nuggets only finished 5 games ahead of the Hornets in the regular season, so it is not a typical 2-7 matchup.
The Hornets are led by their pair of all-stars, Chris Paul and David West. Both players averaged over 20 points per game this season, but the matchups in this series may slow them down. Paul will be matched up against Mr. Big Shot Chauncey Billups who still has a few years left on his tires and brings a wealth of playoff experience. Billups is also a bigger guard which could be an effective defense to Paul’s speed. In the post, Chauncey will have a distinct advantage and should be able to play Paul fairly physical and bump him off his game a little bit. For West, he will run into a trio of defensive stalwarts in the post. Kenyon Martin will start out on West, but Chris Anderson and Renaldo Balkman off the bench are both outstanding defenders. Anderson is agile and has the length to block shots while Balkman has relentless energy and should harass and frustrate West throughout the series. The rest of the Hornets need to find their stride soon or this could be a quick series. Peja Stojakovic has not shot the ball well this season and finished with a shooting percentage under 40% for the year and Tyson Chandler has been banged up all season. Last year, the Hornets had four potential all-stars; this year just two. The addition of James Posey should help as he may guard 6th Man candidate and offensive powder keg J.R. Smith and Rasual Butler will hit some shots, but the Nuggets will have too much firepower in this series.
In addition to Billups and the post defense mentioned above, the Nuggets have another weapon known simply as ‘Melo. Carmelo Anthony averaged 22.8 points per game this season and will be matched up with either Butler or Stojakovic, neither of whom can guard Anthony. If Anthony and Billups need help on offense, Coach George Karl can bring Smith and his 15.2 ppg average off the bench. Smith has two 40 point games and two 30 point games this season, so he can light it up if either of those two players has an off game. Finally, at center the Nuggets have the efficient Nene Hilario. Nene shot over 60% from the field this year and averaged 14.6 ppg to go with over 7 rebounds. If Chandler is not 100%, Nene could be the X-factor in the post for the Nuggets, converting easy baskets to supplement the abundance of scoring talent on the wings.
Prediction- Nuggets in 5. The Hornets will win at least one game at home and could stretch this series to 6 games by stealing a second. To win the series, Chris Paul will have to be unstoppable, which he can be, but I don’t feel an upset is likely here.

Spurs (3) v. Mavericks (6)- season tied 2-2; series 1-0 Mavericks
The Mavericks have found their stride lately and could present a difficult matchup for the Spurs, especially with Ginobli out. The Spurs still have Tony Parker and Tim Duncan to carry the load, but the key to their past title runs was having all three of their stars healthy for a playoff run. Without Ginobli, the Spurs have to rely on role players Roger Mason (solid contributor but not Ginobli) and Michael Finley (about 4 seasons to late in his career to adequately replace Manu). Drew Gooden was a good pickup that can score and rebound in the post, but the Spurs look uncharacteristicly thin this playoff.
On the other hand, the Mavericks are hitting on all cylinders now, going 6-2 in April including a 140-116 win over Phoenix and a 130-101 win over Utah. Offensively, the Mavericks have Dirk Nowitzki scoring over 25 points per game, but the return of Josh Howard may be key. Howard returned to play 6 games in April, averaging over 18 points per game in 30 minutes after missing 30 games throughout the season due to injuries. After those two, the Mavericks then bring Jason Terry off the bench to average 19.6 ppg. While the Mavericks may not have a point guard to contain Parker’s quickness, Jason Kidd and Jose Juan Barea should be able to match his offensive production and possibly tire him out as the game progresses, making Parker less effective in crunch time. Role players Brandon Bass (8.5 ppg) and the much improved Gerald Green (5.2 ppg, but he could be developing into the Mavericks’ version of J.R. Smith) provide depth and offense off the bench.
For the Spurs to win this, their 2nd ranked scoring defense will have to contain the Mavericks 9th ranked scoring offense. It should be an interesting matchup, but I have to go against my instincts and go with the offense here. Like the Hornets-Nuggets series, home court will not be a huge factor in this series as each team won a game on the other teams’ home court and the series split 2-2. With the Spurs banged up, I like the Mavericks depth to overcome the Spurs defensive system in a long series.
Prediction- Mavericks in 7. This series will come down to the role players and I like Terry, Barea, Bass, and Green over Mason, Matt Bonner, Finley, and Gooden.

Blazers (4) v. Rockets (5)- Houston wins season 2-1; series 1-0 Rockets
This will be a low scoring series between the 4th ranked defense of the Blazers and the 6th ranked defense of the Rockets. Houston has won 5 of 6 to lead into the playoffs and the team has played better together as the season progressed. Heading into the playoffs, Ron Artest is fully acclimated to playing with the Rockets and the team has adjusted to replacing Rafer Alston with Aaron Brooks in the starting lineup after Alston was traded to the Magic.
This is the best first round matchup in the Western Conference with the young Blazers matching up with the physical and playoff tested (and disappointed) Rockets. The home team won all three regular season matchups, but two of those games were close with Portland winning by 2 at the Rose Garden and Houston winning by 4 in Houston. The most recent matchup was a 14 point Rockets victory. The individual matchups in this series should be interesting as well.
Artest should be matched up with Blazers star Brandon Roy, which could really hurt the Blazers. Artest is one of, if not the best perimeter defenders in the NBA and should be able to contain Roy and hold him below 20 points per game. On the year, Roy averaged 21 points against Houston, but shot below 40% against them, well below the 48% he shot on the year. That could be magnified as Roy plays under the bright lights of the playoffs for the first time in his career. If Artest needs a break or is ineffective, Shane Battier will be able to step in and guard Roy as well. Roy will have a good defender in his face at all times in this series which could severely affect his output. LaMarcus Aldridge played well against Houston, averaging 23.3 points per game, but I expect the defense of Battier, Artest, and Luis Scola to take him off of his game. The playoffs are usually more physical than the regular season, and the Rockets have multiple bodies to throw at Aldridge down low including Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes off the bench. The Blazers are young and inexperienced in the playoffs which will hurt them against a veteran team.
For the Rockets, Yao Ming should have a great series as no one on Portland can match up with him. If they double team, it will result in open looks for PF Scola, who shots over 53% from the floor. Brooks and Artest provide scoring from the wings and backups Kyle Lowry and Von Wafer can both shoot coming off the bench. The Blazers can counter with Travis Outlaw and Sergio Rodriguez off the bench which could lead to an interesting comparison of whose bench plays better. One of the big questions of this series is whether the Rockets can finally make it out of the first round.
In this series, defense will reign. The Rockets veteran savvy and improved play over the course of the season will push them over the hump in a competitive series. The Blazers may be one year away from making a run at the finals.
Prediction- Rockets in 6. This will be a close series and should be fun to watch, but the Rockets physical defense and experience will be the difference in this series.

Western Conference Finals
Lakers v. Rockets- Lakers in 6
The Rockets’ defense will carry them to this series where they will be the only team to challenge the Lakers until the Finals. With Artest guarding Kobe and Yao, Scola, and Battier containing the Lakers bigs in the post, this series could get interesting, but in the long run, the Lakers have too much firepower for the Rockets. Fisher should be able to outplay Brooks at the point in what will prove to be the key matchup as the Rockets will surprisingly play even with the Lakers at the other positions. Rockets Coach Rick Adelman will show why he deserves Coach of the Year with this run, but Houston will come up short as the Lakers march on to the Finals.

NBA Championship
Lakers v. Cavaliers- Cavs in 7
While the Lakers won both regular season games against the Cavs, Ilgauskas only played in one game, Delonte West missed both, and Joe Smith was not on the team yet. With these three players healthy, the Cavs become the better team. However, the Lakers are improved from the team that almost beat the Celtics in the championship last year, and they are the only team to win a game in Cleveland this season when the starters played. This should be an epic showdown that will return the NBA finals to the glory days of the 1980s with Larry Bird against Magic Johnson. As these teams move toward this showdown, don’t be surprised if whispers of the playoffs being fixed for a Cavs-Lakers showdown start swirling. While I usually go for these conspiracy theories, no teams in the NBA match up with either of these powers. This matchup will happen as long as these two teams can stay healthy. When they meet, LeBron and Kobe will put on a show. The Cavs will pull out a tough series with Ilgauskas neutralizing Gasol. The Cavs backcourt of West and Williams will outplay Fisher and Luke Walton giving them the edge. Kobe and LeBron should end up canceling each other out as they both live up their reputations.