Above the Rim: Impact Injuries to Start the NBA Season

At the start of the NBA season, there are already some big names that will miss time and some big names returning from major injuries. The Wizards are feeling the pain early as three of their five starters--including two all-stars--have question marks about how much they will be able to play at the start of the season.

Here are some of the players you should use extra caution when drafting heading into Fantasy Hoops '08. For now, I'm bullish on Elton Brand, Andrew Bynum and Greg Oden. As for the others, they'd have to drop pretty far before I call their names in any draft:

Gilbert Arenas, Wizards
Arenas only played 13 games last year. He is projected to be out for three months following surgery on his left knee in September. While Agent-0 is good for at least 20-4-5 when he’s healthy, the Wizards are not sure when he will be back. Arenas will be out at least for the first month of the season, and could be out longer. Gilbert tried to come back from a knee injury for the end of the season and the playoffs last year but was unable to finish the Wizards opening round series against the Cavs; this time the team may wait until he is definitely 100%. Antonio Daniels will take over the starting point guard spot while Gilbert is out. Daniels averaged 8.4 points and 4.8 assists per game last year, 9.1 points and 5.1 assists in 63 starts.

Antawn Jamison, Wizards
Jamison suffered a knee injury in the Wizards’ preseason opener, but the injury is not as serious as it appeared to be at the time. While it was initially reported that Jamison would miss a month, it was recently reported that the injury should be day-to-day; Jamison plans on being ready to play in the final two preseason games. If Jamison does miss time, Andray Blatche, just 22 years old, will step into the starting lineup. Blatche set career highs with 7.5 points and 5.2 rebounds in 20 minutes a game last season.

Brendan Haywood, Wizards
Haywood is another Wizard who set career highs in points (10.6) and rebounds (7.2) last season. He also contributed 1.7 blocks. Like the rest of this team, Haywood will miss time this season with an injury; he should miss 4-6 months after surgery on his right wrist. Etan Thomas, who sat out last season after heart surgery and averaged 6.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks in 2006-2007 and 8.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks a game in 66 career starts, Blatche, and draft pick JaVale McGee, only 20 years old, should combine to take Haywood’s minutes.

Monta Ellis, Golden State
Ellis is out until after December 17th after the Warriors suspended him 30 games (4 pre-season) for injuring his ankle while riding a mo-ped in the off-season, conduct that is prohibited by his NBA contract. Ellis probably would not have been able to play until mid-December anyway because of the injury; the difference is the Warriors do not have to pay Ellis during the suspension. Last year Ellis averaged 20.2 points, 5 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game. Ellis should be able to repeat these numbers when he can play again because he will be filling Baron Davis’s role as the trigger man for the run-and-gun Warriors offense. If Ellis can maintain his quickness despite the ankle injury, his numbers may improve in his new role. While he is suspended/injured, former Nets guard Marcus Williams (11.1 points, 6.3 assists, and 4 rebounds in 7 starts for NJ last year) will start at point guard. Williams could put up 15 points and 6-8 assists while filling in.

Manu Ginobli, Spurs
Ginobli averaged careers highs in points (19.5), rebounds (4.8), assists (4.5), and 3-point % (40.1) last season, but he underwent surgery on his left ankle in early September after injuring the ankle in the NBA playoffs and then again in the Olympics. Ginobli is hoping to return by opening day, but a more likely timetable has him returning in December. Michael Finley will replace Ginobli in the starting lineup and should be in the 12-15 point per game range.

Elton Brand, Sixers
Brand has been a 20/10 guy with 50.5% shooting percentage in his career, and his consistency makes these number almost a lock for the upcoming season. Brand only played in 8 games at the end of last season as he recovered from a knee injury, and he averaged career lows in points (17.6), rebounds (8), and shooting percentage (45.6%). Brand’s numbers were down partially due to playing less minutes as well. If healthy, and it appears that Brand is, he should rebound to 20/10 again this year, especially with Andre Miller and Andre Iguodala preventing a defense from focusing on stopping Brand.

Andrew Bynum, LA Lakers
I thought Bynum was on the verge of stardom when he was injured last season. In a December game in Cleveland that I was at, Bynum, not Kobe (who had an off game), was the Lakers' best player as none of the Cavs could stop him. Bynum was averaging 13.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game when he was injured, but he averaged 14.6 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks as a starter. Bynum’s number improved every month of the season as well. He averaged 11.4 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks while shooting 59.3% in November 13.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks on 66.1% shooting in December, and topped out at 17.3 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks with 70% shooting in January. This improvement coupled with PF Pau Gasol starting next to Bynum in the post this year should mean even better numbers. While Gasol could take some looks away from Bynum, 16-18 points with 10-12 rebounds should be a reasonable expectation. Bynum is a future all-star, and this year might be his debut in February’s showcase.

Greg Oden, Trailblazers
Oden is another young center coming back from an injury this year. Oden was dominant as a man child during his freshman year at Ohio State in 2006-2007, but microfracture surgery on his knee prevented him from playing as a rookie last year. Oden spent the season putting over 20 pounds of muscle on his already sturdy frame; his increased bulk persuaded the Blazers to ask Oden to stop working out because they were worried he was getting to big. Oden looked dominant in the post and on the offensive glass in a pre-season game last week, fighting through multiple defenders for points and boards. Starting with PF LaMarcus Aldridge in the post, these players should both put up solid numbers complementing each other down low. Oden should get at least 12 points and 10 boards a game with around 2 blocks. Aldridge should at least match the 17.8 points and 7.6 rebounds he averaged per game last season, and those numbers could approach 20 and 8 with one more season of experience and Oden next to him.

Darius Miles, Celtics
Miles last played in 2005-2006, and then he only 40 games after playing just 63 games in 2004-2005. In a preseason game last Friday against Cleveland, Miles only played 3:40. While some have touted Miles as a replacement for James Posey, I feel that Miles is too much of an uncertainty to expect him to be the Celtics 6th Man. Miles has the talent to be effective in that role, but even when healthy, he hasn’t been able to live up to that potential, and I am not convinced he is 100%. Miles may be worth a last round pick in a fantasy draft, but anything earlier than that could be a big risk. If Miles doesn’t take Posey’s role, look for PF Leon Powe and rookie G-F Bill Walker to be big off the bench for the Celtics. Powe’s playing time and scoring averaging improved every month, starting at 4 minutes and 2.7 points per game in November and finishing at 22 minutes and 13.7 points in April. Powe’s rebounding numbers also improved from 1.3 to 6.3 per game throughout the course of the season. For the season, Power averaged 7.9 points and 4.1 rebounds, but those numbers will definitely be up this year. Walker has looked good so far in the preseason and is athletic enough to make an impact despite his lack of experience.

Luol Deng, Bulls
Deng was injured in midseason last year but still managed to average 17 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, slightly below career highs he set in 2006-2007 (18.8 and 7.2). However, Deng only averaged 16.8 points and 5.5 boards in March and April after returning from the injury. Deng should be able to at least match what he did last year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him return to the career highs he set two seasons ago.

Sean May, Bobcats
May didn’t play in 2007-2008 and was limited to only 58 games in the two seasons before that. The Bobcats think that May will be able to start at PF next to C Emeka Okafor this season although the Bobcats have previously said they would like to play Okafor at PF. If that happens, and it doesn’t appear likely currently, May would still be a valuable bench player if he can remain healthy. May averaged 11.9 and 6.7 in 24 minutes during the 2006-2007 season. However, May also missed 188 of 246 games in three professional seasons due to three surgeries on his right knee. If healthy, May should be able to average around 12 points and 8 rebounds, maybe more.

Shaun Livingston, Heat
Livingston didn’t play in 2007-2008 after tearing basically everything in his knee. Livingston has not played in 20 months, and is still rehabbing. As of now, Livingston is behind Chris Quinn, Marcus Banks, and Mario Chalmers on the depth chart. While I have always loved Livingston’s game, I can’t see him being a major contributor this season. If Livingston can rehab and get some solid minutes late in the season, I would look for him to be a solid contributor in 2009-2010.

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