Thursday, January 31, 2008

The Puck Stops Here: The Injury Bug Is Biting

Welcome back to another installment of The Puck Stops Here. I have another topic that I feel is monumental enough to discuss before I get to my hockey discussion. Johan Santana has been traded to the Mets. I believe this solidifies Johan as a top 4 pick this year (Arod, Hanley and Reyes all deserve consideration up there). Johan's struggles in August and September last year worry me a little. A pitcher with such nasty stuff should never be hit so hard, unless he is hurting. While I do believe an injury risk may be there, Johan now has more upside than he ever has. Assuming Johan stays healthy, he will have career highs in run support and in turn wins. I also believe moving to the NL will help his ERA, WHIP and K's (Take a look at his inter league stats, he has been almost un-hittable). In addition to Johan improving, every Mets pitcher should improve simply because of Johan's presence in the rotation. I like a rebound for Pedro, while Maine and Oli Perez will post better numbers than last year. That is enough on Johan, let's hit the ice.

Players are starting to get injured left and right. Over the last month, Crosby, Heatley, Sakic, Smyth, Stastny, Campoli as well as other very valuable players have gone down with serious to major injuries. It is not just studs who have been lost, but also fringe players, which make up the back half of rosters, have been getting hurt as well. The Penguins can barely field an NHL team, they became so desperate that last night they played a defensive defenseman who hasn't scored a goal in two seasons on the right wing.

You can't prevent an injury from occurring, but you can be prepared when an injury does occur. Take 15 minutes a day and figure out what players you would add if you had to add someone immediately. Keep an eye on who is being injured and how that affects others players on their own team. When a player gets injured someone has to try to fill his void, this can lead to jumps in value. If you are pro-active in your injury preparation then you may be able to soften the blow of even the most major injuries. Here are some players you should consider to help with your roster.

Ryan Malone, W, Pittsburgh: Malone brings to the table some scoring punch and a hefty amount of PIM. Prior to the Crosby injury, Malone floated between Crosby's and Malkins line and shared the wing duty when Sid and Evgeni were paired together. Malone has found a steady role with Malkin and this has lead to some consistency in his scoring. Malone is also on the top power play unit and has rewarded the Penguins with solid power play production. This should lead to an increased roll when Sid does return. Malone helps Laraque playing the enforcer role, thus the PIM will always be there. In addition, Malone may be finding a consistent scoring touch that would make him a valuable commodity.

Petr Sykora, W, Pittsburgh: Sykora has also found consistency in the Crosby injury. He has put together his best month of the season and Therrien seems to understand that for Sykora to be of value he needs to be with Malkin. If Therrien continues to play Malkin and Sykora together, Sykora may just live up to his pre-season super sleeper status. Sykora has shown that he can score, perhaps this entire season he was only hindered by his linemates. Go get Sykora, he will have long term value.

Cory Murphy D, Florida: Murphy began the season very strong scoring 11 points in 19 games, most of which came on the power play. However, Murphy has been sidelined for the last 2 months with a shoulder injury, until now. Murphy is more of a power play specialist, but as a defenseman this can be extremely valuable. A defenseman who can produce consistently in the power play department is a defenseman I want on my team. Don't expect high PIM numbers, but he should provide average plus-minus and very good scoring production. If you have room and need D help pick him up, if not, put him on your watch list.

Peter Mueller, C, Phoenix: Mueller is a rookie, which always means inconsistency, however he seems to have found his scoring touch. Mueller has talent, Phoenix drafted him 8th overall two years ago, so this isn't a lucky hot streak. Mueller has 14 points in January putting him in the top 15 for scoring for the month of January. Mueller should be given every chance to succeed in Phoenix and there is no better offensive coach to learn from than Wayne Gretzky. Mueller should be added, however don't be surprised if there is inconsistency.

Dan Boyle, D, Tampa Bay: Not much needs to be said about Boyle. Boyle has been one of the better Defensemen in the league the past couple of seasons. He has missed significant time this season and has frustrated many owners. Therefore, he may be available on your waiver wire, if he is go get him NOW. He has 4 points in his 2 games since returning and this should continue. You may be able to get a top 10 defenseman for nothing. Don't miss out.

Martin St. Pierre, C, Chicago: This may be a bit of a stretch, but St. Pierre is joining the top unit in Chicago and may break out. St. Pierre is definitely available in your league and he should be on your watch list. St. Pierre is averaging about a point a half per game in the AHL and just came off a goal and 2 assist performance in the AHL all-star game. Chicago has high hopes and he has shown he can score. Like I said, it may be a stretch, but this is one sleeper to watch.

Martin Erat, W, Nashville: Erat will score in bunches and then disappear for some time. He is scoring in bunches again and will provide excellent production until his next drought. Erat always tantalizes fantasy owners with point per game talent, but always seems to fall slightly short. He has good talent around him and is getting plenty of ice time. Maybe, just maybe, he may find some consistency.

That is all for this week, enjoy the Super Bowl. Go Giants!!!

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Just what the Doctor Ordered: A Very Brady Ankle Sprain

Welcome to SportsJudge.com's newest column, "Just what the Doctor Ordered." I am Dr. Smiley, a Rheumatology practitioner in Central New York, and I am writing alongside my colleague, Dr. Moretz, who specializes in Orthopaedics/Sports Surgery. As the newest columnists for SportsJudge Blog, we will introduce to you a frequent sports injury in each article, and explain its implications in terms of fantasy sports.

This week's topic is ankle sprains: "regular" ankle sprains and "high ankle" sprains. A sprain is basically a stretching of body tissue. This topic is especially pertinent to fantasy sports fans this week given the status of Tom Brady heading into this week's Super Bowl.

Out of necessity, first lets begin with some terminology. With regard to the foot and ankle, "lateral" refers to the pinky-toe side of the foot, and "medial" refers to the big toe side of the foot. We will also discuss various ligaments. A "ligament" is tough, fibrous tissue structure that attaches two bones together.

Now, onto the injuries.

Amongst the two types of ankle sprains, a “regular” ankle sprain is less serious and more common than a high ankle sprain. The high ankle sprain is a more serious injury because the high ankle sprain involves a ligament that is attached to the lower leg bones: the tibia and fibula. The tibia and fibula are the two bones that are below the knee, connected to the ankle. The ligaments that are involved are the anterior and posterior tibia-fibular ligaments, also known as the syndesmotic ligaments (Note: the ligament is usually named for the two bones it connects).


The key to understanding this injury, and why it is so serious to the health and mobility of an athlete, is that the high ankle sprain involves ligaments that attach to the tibia and fibula. In essence, the high-ankle sprain involves the lower leg bones, whereas the regular ankle sprain does not involve them at all.

Because the lower leg bones are involved, the injury can affect the way that the bodies bears its weight, and the ability of the athlete to shift weight, or at least the ability to do so without pain. Bones are the body’s supporting structures, so when there is an injury to ligaments that have a role in weight bearing, it becomes very difficult for the injured to pivot, plant or make any delicate or fine moved involved in any contact sport.

A regular ankle sprain is also a ligament issue, but of less consequence to an athlete because the ligaments of the lower ankle do not have such an intricate role in weight bearing and shifting.

An ankle sprain commonly occurs when another player strikes an athlete, while the athlete is twisting. The high-ankle sprain is usually diagnosed on the field by using the “squeeze test.” The doctor squeezes the calf, compressing the fibula against the tibia, testing to see whether the athlete experiences pain.

The treatment involves rest and immobilization. The recovery time for an athlete varies significantly based on the severity of the sprain and the athlete’s tolerance for pain. Some players have a very high tolerance for pain, and will play through extreme pain in order to return to competition quicker. Others are less able, and less willing to do so.

The most salient point is this: the high-ankle sprain involves the lower leg. The weight of the whole body is using the ligament that is sprained. You can tape up an ankle, but it is simply not possible to “tape” a bone. Often a lineman can overcome the injury because their movement is limited to a confined space, often just run blocking and pass blocking; but for a running back, defensive back or wide receiver, a high-ankle sprain is a serious limitation.

As for Tom Brady, we shall see. Expect him to remain in the pocket and not run around much, which is where he does his best work anyway.

Monday, January 28, 2008

Smiles & Frowns: Super Bowl XLII, The Giants, Pop Culture, and Some Videos & Links

My post-fantasy football season hiatus is over. There is simply too much to talk about right now. I need to get it off my chest. And…go!

The Super Bowl and Some Miscellany
:

First of all, the pundits predict that this Super Bowl will garner the highest ratings ever. As far as Super Bowl match-ups and expectations go, there will always be detractors, whiners and critics—and that’s fine—but what’s not to like this time around? Admittedly I’m biased (totally and completely—I’m a die-hard Giants fan), but how about this for objectivity:

This game offers your classic underdog team, the ultimate road warrior Giants: an NFL-record ten straight road wins for the Giants, with three of those road wins occurring in the post-season. In the first game the Giants exercised the demon of Jeff Garcia (more on that later), who beat them in the post-season twice before, with separate teams (Eagles and Niners).

The Giants path included a victory at number-one seeded division-rival Dallas, in a game that happened to be the first post-season meeting between the Giants and Cowboys, ever (really).

On top of that, the Giants pulled off a road win at Lambeau Field, with the winning kick coming in overtime off the foot of Lawrence Tynes from 47 yards out in sub-zero conditions, following an interception by the beloved Brett Favre on only the second play in overtime, when he had missed two shorter field goals in the game already.





















Check out these fan celebrations:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=oXAKC0_4V_I

http://youtube.com/watch?v=139ZdOrMvD0

Meanwhile, in the moments leading up to the kick, every legitimate Giants fan was thinking, “Oh no!!! This is Feely at Seattle all over again!” (more on that later). Then a very personable Tynes went on Late Night with David Letterman to discuss the kick. Appearances like this usually take place after a championship:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSr5F9ut2Vc

Even more comical, Eddie Murphy of all people actually predicted the outcome of the Giants-Packers game almost twenty years earlier. Check that out:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=8dXkZbVkeAU

And your Goliath: I don’t need to recite the significance of this game to NFL history and the New England Patriots. The whole “boot” saga and secrecy just compounds it all as New England tries to take another step towards the Niners-Cowboys-Steelers Fist-Full of Super Bowl Rings Club. If the Patriots don’t win this game, despite the enormous accomplishment of becoming the first 16-0 team in the regular season, they will become the ultimate incomplete “yeah…but” team. Speaking of incomplete, this is funny:

http://www.craigslist.org/about/best/aus/192659778.html

Any conversation about the Patriots regular season feat would include a mention of the Super Bowl loss. True, a real championship team is driven by the desire to succeed rather than the fear of defeat, but, you know.

Adding another level of intrigue, these teams met in the final game of the regular season, when the game meant absolutely nothing (statistically) to the Giants, and everything—statistically, emotionally and historically—to the Patriots. And you know what happened: the Giants took them to the brink, tagging them for 35 points. Three Giants starters were injured in that game, by the way (Center Shaun O’Hara, DB Sam Madison and LB Kawika Mitchell. The first two missed the first game of the post-season). However, the Pats entered the week as two touchdown favorites.

And yes, this is a quasi New York-Boston match-up. Would you have rather heard about Brett Favre for an entire week? Really? How about a Jaguars-Bucs Super Bowl? You have to admit, unless you’re a Cowboys, Packers, Buccaneers, Redskins or Seahawks fan, this is a pretty cool match-up.

On a hysterical and totally unrelated note (And I wanted a British kid before I saw this video):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OBlgSz8sSM

Almost as cool as this kid: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fVDGu82FeQ.

In other news, Terrell Owens is Rod Tidwell. Yes, Rod Tidwell from Jerry Maguire, the “Ambassador of Kwan.” Hopefully you have seen the clip of T.O. from the press conference following the loss to the Giants. If not, let me fill you in and provide the link: an emotional Owens wears sunglasses to cover his tears and chokes up when he comes to the defense of “his quarterback”, Tony Romo.

I may not have written it first, but I shouted it excitedly as the conference aired live, “HE’S ROD TIDWELL!!! THE AMBASSADOR OF KWAN!!! T.O is Rod Tidwell!!! Thanks to the guy who posted the video:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=GVVfsSCrb14

Now that leads me to my next point: I think it’s a safe bet that T.O is like the emotional dude in every group of guys. You know, the guy that gets really sappy and emotional every time he gets drunk and won’t stop hugging you and telling you you’re a great friend. Then when he sobers up the next morning he can’t really remember what happened (or so he claims). That video is easily my favorite T.O. moment ever.

An Unabashed Discussion About the Giants:

This is a different Giants team, and it feels amazing. I’m slowly weaning myself from the “Oh my Lord, the Giants are really in the Super Bowl” phase. And what’s really great, this isn’t a “happy to be there” Giants team. No, they aren’t. This is a team reeling with confidence. This team is like your friend that spent the last few years constantly dating this crazy chick, then finally broke up with her and since then has been seen with a string of very attractive girls. He’s on fire, and though you’ve known this friend forever, you still have a hard time believing what he’s accomplishing. There’s no stopping him, and there’s no convincing him that anyone is “out of his league.”

This is a team that believes in its quarterback, Eli Manning. They’ve accepted him for what he is: a sound, mostly emotionless quarterback that looks like a ninth-grader that woke up and wants only five more minutes of sleep. He isn’t “unstoppable” as the people at Citizen’s Watch would have you believe.




And Eli really isn’t a “leader.” Not in any traditional sense or otherwise. Really, he doesn’t even need to be. He just needs his players’ trust, and to be himself. It’s all about trust. Eleven players have a job on every play, and Eli happens to have the most scrutinized job among them, in the most critical city of them all, on one of the most storied franchises in the league. Eli is also a former number one draft pick, the centerpiece in an enormous draft-day controversy/holdout that eventually delivered phenom linebacker Shawn Merriman to the Chargers (not to mention Philip Rivers). Further, he’s a member of the NFL’s most famous family, the younger brother of one of the greatest and most overexposed quarterbacks ever (see also Joe Namath). Eli has spent his entire NFL life in a crucible with the media hanging on every throw.

To me, Eli’s career has been like climbing a mountain of confidence. Some games he would take great strides, and others he would repel. As long as he just looks forward, doesn’t look back, and doesn’t wonder how he got up the mountain, I think he’ll be fine.

This team has totally changed personalities over the course of the past couple seasons. The Giants were often the highly penalized, highly volatile, negative attention getting group of me-first players. Now they’re a team.

You know how the lows are often as memorable as the highs? It’s true. I remember where I was, whom I was with, and precisely what happened for each of the Giants most torturous losses in the past decade. They are, in no particular order, off the top of my head (and if I’ve left a miserable one out, please don’t remind me):

1. The 1997 first-round playoff loss to the Vikings, where the Giants blew a nine-point lead in the final minute and a half, in a game that included a Vikings’ onside kick.

2. The 2003 playoff loss to the Forty-Niners after leading 38-14, including the 41-year old back-up snapper, signed as a fill in that week, botching two snaps, one of them on a potentially game winning field goal as time expired. Trey Junkin. Jeff Garcia and Rod Tidwell combined for about 10 completions/receptions, almost 200 yards and at least two touchdowns. This really happened: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recapPlayoff2002?gameId=230105025.

3. The Feely game. Kicker Jay Feely missed three consecutive field goal attempts in a tied game at Seattle, each of which could have won the game, two of them in overtime. Seriously: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=251127026.

4. The Titans game in 2006, where the Giants blew a 21-0 lead in the fourth quarter, eventually losing 24-21 in regulation. The Titans didn’t even get on the board until after the ten-minute mark in the fourth. The highlight of this game was a play where Kiwanuka had Vince Young wrapped up for a fourth-down, game ending sack, but let him go, fearing a personal foul penalty. Young snuck out of his grasp and ran almost twenty yards for a first down, breaking about six tacklers and my heart en route to the game tying drive.

5. The Panthers game in the first round of the playoffs in 2006. I knew things were looking grim when I was distraught over Nick Griesen’s injury, who at the time was the last healthy backup linebacker. The Giants had 132 total yards, scored zero points, and controlled the ball for less than 20 minutes.

6. The embarrassing loss to the Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV-- a game that was really never a game. The only Giants highlight--Ron Dixon's kickoff return for a touchdown--was followed by a kick return-TD by the Ravens on the very next play.

7. The Vikings game in 2005 where Minnesota had 137 yards of total offense, but became the first team in NFL history to score on a punt return, a kick return and an interception return in the same game en route to a 24-21 victory over the Giants: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=251113019.

8. A Monday night game against the Cowboys in 2003: the Giants scored the game-tying touchdown and two-point conversion with less than seven minutes remaining, then a “game winning” field goal with eleven seconds remaining. And that’s when Kicker Matt Bryant pushed the ball out of bounds on the ensuing kickoff, preserving the clock and putting the Cowboys on the forty-yard line. A twenty-five yard sideline reception left four seconds on the clock—plenty of time for a 52-yard field goal by Billy Cundiff. Cundiff kicked his seventh field goal of the game in overtime to secure the victory.

So yes, there have been highs. And as you can see above, there have been plenty lows. And for the past few years, third-down conversions on the Giants have been easier than Paris Hilton on totally hidden video. There were penalties, backbreaking penalties, drive-ending penalties, and personal fouls. The Giants consistently had meltdown plays and mistakes that you just knew would derail the confidence and mental stability of the team going forward. They called for Coughlin’s head. Eli was as much of a waste as he was an enigma. There was internal dissent, and a lack of belief in one another.

Not anymore. Not even in the city where everything is blown out of proportion.

For a fan that has suffered the team’s lowest lows, this is the highest high right now. I know they can win, and I think they will. And it’s this—the peace of mind, the belief, the faith, and understanding again why I fell in love with the team that makes the thrill so great.

"Down on the Farm" with Steve Shoup

Welcome to the first edition of "Down on the Farm", an insight to all things Minor Leagues, and a look at what reinforcements are on their way to the Majors. We have all seen in recent years what finding the next Hanley Ramirez, Justin Verlander, or Ryan Braun can do for your fantasy team. Every Monday I will have a new post focusing on the next wave of top prospects that can hopefully give you an advantage come draft day.

Before we get to the post, I wanted to give you all a quick introduction about myself. My name is Steve Shoup and I’ve been a sports fanatic for as long as I can remember as well as a fantasy gamer for the last 10 years. When it comes to my approach with fantasy sports, I tend to focus heavily on looking for value in youth. While in the NFL and NBA we hear a lot about the Adrian Peterson’s and Kevin Durant’s, w rarely see that same focus on rookies in MLB. Just last year, Johnny Damon was considered a top 15 to top 20 fantasy outfielder while Astros outfielder Hunter Pence on the other hand wasn’t even drafted in most leagues. Yet, by the end of the season those owners who picked up Pence in May had the better centerfielder.

Every year as the baseball season ends we see rosters expand and teams take a look at what they might have for next season. A great example of this is Washington third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. In June 2005, Zimmerman was drafted by the Nationals in the first round and by September he was playing third base in RFK. In just 20 games, Zimmerman went 23-58 for a .397 average. That off-season the Nationals traded veteran Vinny Castilla essentially handing the job to a player with less than three months of minor league experience. Zimmerman responded by hitting .287, with 20 home runs and 110 RBI’s to become a middle of the lineup hitter for Washington and a viable third base option for fantasy owners. The first article of Down on the Farm is going to focus on those late season call-ups last year that look to repeat Zimmerman’s success.

Hitters:

    1. Joey Votto (1B- Cincinnati Reds) While he doesn’t get the hype as his more heralded fellow Reds prospects, Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey, Votto is the safe bet to produce big in 2008. During his Sept. call-up last year Votto produced a .321-4-17 line in 84 AB, following up a Triple-A performance of .294-22-92. During the off season the Reds cleared out Jeff Conine and Jorge Cantu. And while they still have Scott Hatteberg, Votto looks to be Dusty Bakers primary first baseman. Though Votto might not put up Albert Pujols or Ryan Howard numbers, he should quickly establish himself at the top of the second tier of first basemen. He will also have two factors to help his transition to the big leagues: (1) he will be surrounded by a potent lineup and (2) he will play half his games in one of the best parks for LH power hitters, especially in April when the wind blows out.
    2. Jacoby Ellsbury (CF- Boston Red Sox) Now Ellsbury is one of the most talked about prospects out there right now with his name being linked as possible trade bait for Johan Santana. No matter what jersey Ellisbury will be wearing come opening day, he should continue to remain on your fantasy radar. Ellsbury has hit everywhere he’s been, including hitting a combined .323 between AA and AAA, with 82 runs scored and 41 stolen bases. He then hit .353 with 9 steals and .394 on base percentage in September with the Sox, and adding .360, 2 SB and a .429 OBP during the playoffs. The bottom line is if your looking for power you won’t find it in Ellsbury, but he will give you a great batting average, a ton of runs scored and a good number of steals. If Ellsbury is batting lead-off for either of these two teams come April, then he should be in your starting lineup as well.
    3. Geovany Soto (C- Chicago Cubs) Soto came out of nowhere last September, hitting .389-3-8 in just 54 AB. Those numbers came on the heels of his breakout minor league season where he hit .353-26-109 with a .424 OBP. The Cubs responded by not attempting to resign Jason Kendall or any other veteran catchers. Soto will further benefit from a potent Cubs lineup that will give him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. If Soto can produce anywhere near that as a rookie he will become a fantasy stud catcher.

Pitchers:

    1. Franklin Morales (SP- Colorado Rockies) By the numbers alone Morales isn’t the most impressive pitching prospect when it comes to fantasy value, but in this case the numbers could be very deceiving. Morales went 5-4, with a 3.51 ERA and 93 K’s in 112 minor league innings between AA and AAA. He then went 3-2 with a 3.43 ERA, adding 26 K’s in 39 innings. His post-season wasn’t nearly as memorable as he gave up 11 runs in only 10 innings. Now by the numbers alone Morales shouldn’t be looked on much as a fantasy sleeper much less a fantasy stud. But the numbers don’t tell the whole story with Morales as he has a lot going for him as well. He just turned 22 in January and has thrown more than 150 innings in each of the last two seasons, making him a safer bet to still be going strong into August and September. Morales is known as one of the hardest throwers in the minors and left handed making him a good bet when it comes to strikeouts going forward. Though he will make a number of starts at Coors, which no fantasy owner likes to see in their pitcher, Morales has the talent and stuff to overcome that and the defense and offense around him to get him a number of wins.
    2. Clay Buchholz (SP- Boston Red Sox) It’s hard not to like a guy who throws a no-hitter during his September call up, and Buchholz did just that no-hitting the Baltimore Orioles in just his second career major league start. Buchholz finished his year by going 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA and averaging a strikeout an inning with the Sox. That came on the heels of his minor league season where he went 8-5 with a 2.44 ERA with 171 K’s in 125 innings. Buchholz is poised to join Josh Beckett atop the Red Sox rotation, but it may not be as soon as opening day. While he has the talent to be in the rotation two things are working against him. One he has yet to throw more than 150 innings as a professional and a sore shoulder shut him down for the playoffs last year, making him unlikely to be effective come September. The second thing working against Buchholz is the numbers game, with Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling, and Lester all virtual locks for the Red Sox rotation. Keep a close eye on Clay in spring training to see if he can win that fifth spot and eventually have a chance to be a fantasy starter by years end.
    3. Joba Chamberlain (SP- New York Yankees) Chamberlain experienced a meteoric rise in Yankees minor league system. One year and 88 innings of minor league was all it took to get him to the Yankees. Chamberlain came up in August to reinforce the bullpen, a role in which he took too extremely well posting a 2-0 record with one save, and a 0.38 ERA in 19 appearances. He also added a 34-6 strikeout to walk ratio in 24 innings allowing just one earned run. He then made two play off appearances but was not nearly effective giving up three runs in 3.2 innings. Chamberlain also dominated the minors in 2007, going 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA, with 135 K’s in 88 innings pitched. Chamberlain looks to return to a starting role for the Yankees when opening day rolls around. That being said Chamberlain has one major factor working against him and that’s his experience. He has yet to throw even 120 innings as either a pro or in college, and has battled some nagging injuries throughout his career. This makes Chamberlain a bit more of a risk than Buchholz for the ’08 season. Don’t let that stop you from taking a flier on Chamberlain as he could be this year’s Francisco Liriano.
Hope this gets you starting to think about the top sleepers for this year. Have a great week and I will see you all next week!

Friday, January 25, 2008

Matt's Stats: Baseball Preview Edition


Welcome back to Matt's Stats. While football season is still going strong, the fantasy baseball season is already on the horizon. With that in mind its time to get going with the draft preview. How it will work is every Friday leading up to the season, a different position will be previewed. I would also be happy to answer any specific questions anyone has, so if you want to have your question answered in Matt's Stats, please post it in the comment section and I will answer it during the next week's article. Let's get on with the first preview!


CATCHERS:


1) Victor Martinez (C - Cleveland Indians) - Martinez continues to improve every year by getting over 100 RBIs for the first time in 2007 and hitting .300 for his third consecutive season. The Indians are a team on the rise and there is no reason for Martinez's stats to fall anytime soon.


2) Joe Mauer (C - Minnesota Twins) - Mauer has proven to be injury prone but when playing is one of the best catchers in the game. Mauer is consistent with a lifetime .313 avg. You can also count on 10-15 HRs and 70-90 RBIs. There was a time when the Twins drafted Mauer over Prior and everyone was complaining and calling them cheap, but it was clearly the better move. Draft Mauer if you have a chance in 2008.


3) Russell Martin (C - Los Angeles Dodgers) - In 2006 Martin was considered to be one of the best Canadian players in MLB, but after 2007 (.293 avg., 19 HR, 87 RBI) he is now considered to be one of the best Catchers in MLB. At only 25 by opening day, Martin should only improve and could be one of only two or three catchers this year to get 100 RBIs.


4) Jorge Posada (C - New York Yankees) - As a Mets fan I hate to say this, but Posada is good and one of the best hitting catchers in the majors. He hit .338 with 20 HR and 90 RBI in 2007, and while he is getting old should still get the same run production in 2008. While you can expect a lower avg this year (closer to his career .277 avg.) Posada still makes an excellent pick at catcher for the new season.


5) Brian McCann (C - Atlanta Braves) - McCann has been so good that the Braves traded Saltalamacchia last year, a player that was believed to be the future at the position for Atlanta. McCann has gotten over 90 RBIs in both full seasons he has played and there is no reason to think that 2008 should be any different.


Stay away from Paul Lo Duca (C, Washington Nationals) - He may give you decent stats (.272 avg., 9 HR, 54 RBI, .680 OPS, in not his best season in '07) as a catcher in deeper leagues, but he is ready for a big time down fall in 2008. Aside from the fact that he got a slight injury this week, he has been unresponsive since the Mitchel Report and is going to a new team where Jesus Flores is the future at the position. Look for Lo Duca to post one of his worst seasons this year and stay away from him if possible.


Have a great week and look for the First Base preview next week!

Thursday, January 24, 2008

The Puck Stop Here: Practice What You Preach


Welcome back to another edition of The Puck Stops Here. Before I get to the main subject of my post, I want to address the Crosby situation in Pittsburgh. As everyone should know Crosby is expected to be out 6-8 weeks. Since I’m a gambling man, I’m betting he is back closer to 6 weeks rather than 8. The big winner from the injury will most likely be Petr Sykora. He already has an assist in each game since the Crosby injury and is now playing on Malkin’s wing and the top power play unit. If Sykora is available in your league, most likely he is, I would pick him up.

Now, I want to give you a glimpse into my fantasy hockey team (Yes, only one this year, I was very busy with school and work during draft time). If you are taking advice from me it is worthwhile for you to see my own performance. Let me first take you through my draft, I will name the players in the order of their draft position. Alexander Ovechkin, Henrik Zetterberg, Daniel Sedin, Marty Turco, Henrik Sedin, Ryan Smyth, Brad Richards, Kari Lehtonen, Patrice Bergeron, Brian Rafalski, Anze Kopitar, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Petr Sykora, Johan Holmqvist, Tom Poti, Andrej Meszaros, Ales Hemsky, and last but not least Michel Ouellet.

My first 5 picks provided the solid foundation that has led me to a first place team. The middle rounds provided me with a few home run picks, a few solid picks and a few busts. I could have done without both Bergerons and Lehtonen, but Rafalski and Kopitar have been studs. Ales Hemsky in the 17th round has also paid off very well. One thing worth noting is, I did not draft a defenseman until the 10th round. I felt people were reaching on defensemen and I refused to reach, I took what I believed was the best value, as it turns out that strategy provided me with only 2 mistakes in the first 10 picks and a top 5 defenseman in the 10th round. Just like closers in baseball or tight ends in football, don’t reach because everyone else does, take the value pick and mold your team as you need through the waiver wire. This strategy is what I have used and I have had a pretty dominant season so far.

My team today looks like this: Brad Richards, Anze Kopitar, Andy McDonald, Henrik Zetterberg, Dustin Brown, Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Alexander Ovechkin, Brian Rafalski, Tobias Enstrom, Pavel Kubina, Niklas Kronwall, Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky, Andrei Kostitsyn and Ryan Smyth is on my IR. In goal I have Marty Turco, Pascal Leclaire and Ilya Bryzgalov. I built a first place team off the waiver wire. I would not consider my draft anything special, but my team is in very good condition today. Only half of my drafted roster remains on my team and I have 4 players on my team that I have recommended to you. I believe in what I am telling you and you should too. If you watch trends, keep an eye on the daily box scores, and keep reading this column, you will have a better team.

Although I am in first place, I am still looking to improve my team. I have an abundance of points, but I struggle with PIM and plus-minus. To remedy this I am attempting to move Rafalski and Richards. Richards' plus-minus is -23 and this isn’t changing anytime soon with the last place Lightning. Rafalski is one of the top scoring defensemen, but he does little for my PIM, and I do not like having 3 players from one team. I am hoping to move Rafalski and Richards for a two-way defenseman who can contribute both points and PIM. My targets are Chara and Phanuef, they both have some scoring ability and can rack up the PIM. Just like any other fantasy sport, trade from your strengths to help your weaknesses. Hopefully, if I continue to improve my team, come season end I will add another championship trophy to my fantasy resume.

I hope this look into my fantasy team gives you a better idea of who is giving you advice and how you can take even a mediocre draft and turn it into a winner. Until next week, enjoy the All-Star game.

Friday, January 18, 2008

The Puck Stops Here: Senators Special


This is not the regular Thursday column, there was a new entry yesterday and will be another next Thursday. However, this is an important matter that should be handled immediately. The Ottawa Senators may be facing a nightmare situation. Over the weekend they lost Dany Heatley to a shoulder separation and Thursday night they lost Daniel Alfredsson to what looks to be a hip flexor injury.

You can expect Heatley to be out about a month. Doctors say 6 weeks, but I expect less because shoulder separations don’t hurt very much beyond a day or two after. The time period is purely precautionary and every athlete wants to get back in action as soon as possible. Alfredsson is a bigger question mark, a hip flexor injury does not sound very serious. However, it is the type of injury that may linger for weeks and can really hamper a hockey player. Think pulled groin, or in football terms, your stud receiver or running back having hamstring issues.

If Alfredsson does miss extended action, you have to lower you expectations for all Senators. They will be without two top 15 players. This can only mean a drop in production especially for Spezza who has grown accustom to having both stud players as line mates. You cannot lose two players of their caliber without a significant drop in production.

On the flip side, I do expect Antoine Vermette’s production to increase. He will find himself on the top unit, he will see an increase in ice time and should be able to increase his production. If I have to pick a dark horse to increase his production, it is Patrick Eaves. He was injured all of December and returned Tuesday night from an injury. When he has been paired with talent he has been able to produce. If he plays with Spezza and Vermette he will be valuable until Alfredsson and Heatley return.

Good luck dealing with these injuries, take advantage of players who will profit from these injuries.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

The Puck Stop Here: The Dead of Winter Edition


Welcome back to another installment of The Puck Stops Here. Before I get to my hockey content, I want to address a situation that I can’t ignore.

It is clear that I love hockey, but what most don’t know is that I also have an affinity for Terrell Owens. Yes, that Terrell Owens. Many people are saying that his tears were a charade, or on the other hand, that maybe he has turned a new leaf. I disagree; I think this is the same TO that wept after he held onto the game winning catch against the Packers almost a decade ago. I think this is a guy who really does care about his teammates and above all wants to win. The problem is that he is supremely confident and believes the best chance of winning is through him. He cannot fathom why a team wouldn’t give him the ball constantly. Dallas and Tony Romo have, and he has rewarded them with his best season as a football player combining great stats with being a great teammate. Perhaps the problem hasn’t been TO all along, although he hasn’t always helped. Perhaps McNabb was more a part of the problem than we all wanted to believe.

Enough about Terrell, let’s hit the ice. This week I want to talk about a few situations in the NHL and how they will affect the fantasy world.

Philadelphia Flyers: Word is that Joffrey Lupul won’t be on the shelf much longer, thus once again crowding the forward situation in Philly (go get Lupul if he is available). The Flyers are filled at center with long-term commitments to Briere and Richards; the odd man out may be Jeff Carter. Carter has played well and may garner attention in the near future as other teams request him in return for a defenseman. Philly needs a solid defensive defenseman, as they rank in the lower half of the league in goals against per game. If Carter is traded, his ice time should go up and along with it, his production. It is a situation worth paying attention to.

Colorado Avalanche: The Avs have been killed by injuries to All-Stars Joe Sakic and Ryan Smyth, these injuries have had a fantasy impact beyond just those players. The entire Colorado roster has struggled over the last couple weeks. It looks like they may be heating up again, however it may not be too late to buy low on Hejduk, Brunette or Stastny. Smyth and Sakic should be back in about 8 weeks, just in time for the fantasy play offs. Plan ahead and you can have some of these studs on your team come play off time. On a side note, Svatos seems to be the big winner from the injuries as he has been solid over the last couple weeks while most of the team struggled. If you followed my advice last week and picked up Svatos, you were well rewarded. Also, keep an eye on Jose Theodore. He is playing well and has given Budaj stiff competition for the starting spot.

New York Rangers: The Rangers are at a crossroads. If they continue to flounder they may find themselves out of the play off race, but with all their talent you can never call it quits. As of now the Rangers are targeting David Vyborny. If this happens, Vyborny will most likely play alongside Jagr, which would be a very good thing for Vyborny. However, there have been some rumblings that Jagr may be moved. This can be good or bad for Jagr owners depending on where he goes. If he is surrounded by talent Jagr will thrive, if not he could be in trouble. I would try to buy low on Jagr, he is playing through a bone bruise in his foot and I see his numbers getting better down the stretch.

Toronto Maple Leafs: The Leafs are playing their way out of play off contention and this could lead to a fire sale in Toronto. If Toronto management begins its sale and keeps Sundin, his value should drop, but not too drastically. If Sundin goes, I would want to own him especially if he ends up with a team in the hunt. Blake is rumored to be on his way out; I don’t see much change in his value if he is moved. He playing with the top talent in Toronto, but as with Sundin, playing for a contender can only help. Toronto also has a lot of defensive talent to shop around. McCabe, Kubina and Kaberle are all very capable defenseman who would be better off with contenders.

I will see everyone back here next week, until then, stay warm.

Monday, January 7, 2008

The Puck Stops Here: The "Hot in Winter" Edition


Welcome back to The Puck Stops Here, I hope everyone enjoyed the Winter Classic. It was an incredible event for the NHL, boasting more excitement than a hockey event has had in a long time. To become a "Big 4" sport again the NHL needs to continue to produce these high caliber and exciting events. With that said, here are a few players I have been keeping an eye on lately.

Andrei Kostitsyn, W, Montreal: There are few who have been hotter than Kostitsyn since the start of December. In the 16 game stretch he has accumulated 8 goals, 7 assists, 4 power play points and is a +2. He also boasts a 5, 4 and a 3 game scoring streak over that stretch. He is very raw and should be viewed as a rookie, but there is tremendous upside and he is getting plenty of ice time to show what he can do. Rookie risks aside, if he is available in your league, go get him.

Marek Svatos, W, and Jaroslov Hlinka, W, Colorado: Ryan Smyth is out for about 3 months with a broken ankle and both players look to profit from the injury. Both have increased their numbers since getting more ice time and working with better talent. If you were hit by the Smyth injury, both players should be looked at as possible replacements. Both players are more of the wait and see variety, however if you are in need, it may be worth while to pull the trigger. Personally, I like Svatos more because of his experience, however Hlinka has tremendous potential to go along with the rookie risks.

Colby Armstrong, W, Pittsburgh: Let me begin this with the "Crosby Warning." When Colby stops playing with Sid he isn't worth owning. However, he is currently playing with Sid and Malkin as linemates and must be owned until this changes. He has 10 points over the last 8 games and has been averaging 1 PIM per game over the same stretch. Armstrong has very strong value while playing with the top unit, however when this changes, and it will change, he won't be worth owning.

Ty Conklin, G, Pittsburgh: The Pens are riding a 7 game winning streak and Conklin has be a major reason for the win streak. He has earned the starting job and Fleury isn't due back for another month. Conklin began his career with promise but has fizzled until now. He is sporting a 1.88 GAA and a 94% save percentage. If the Pens stay hot, Conklin should be rewarded with many wins and if his numbers can remain strong Conklin is a must start and a definite handcuff for Fleury owners.

Teemu Selanne, W, Anaheim: Selanne is currently working out and skating everyday. This is the exact same situation as Roger Clemens in MLB, minus the steroid allegations. While Selanne has not committed to playing again, early indications point to a return. The best place to get the most recent updates on Selanne is an Anaheim newspaper. Keep an eye on the situation and pull the trigger when you feel like it. Remember, your not the only owner thinking about him.

Niklas Kronwall, D, Detroit: Over the last month, Kronwall has been posting solid stats across the board. He doesn't take a lot of penalties, but he is tops among all defenseman in most other categories. His +11 over the last month should not be ignored. Normally, I do not put much value in plus-minus, but the Red Wings are so good it will be difficult for him not to remain in the positives. Kronwall may experience some drop off, however he should remain in the top 15-20 defenseman for the remainder of the year.

Rob Blake, D, Los Angeles: I'll keep this short because I mentioned him two weeks ago. Go pick up Rob Blake, he has continued to post good numbers over the last two weeks and will continue to do so. He gets plenty of ice time and constantly shoots the puck. In his last game, Blake took 10 shots. That is a number even Alexander Ovechkin can be jealous of. Pick him up.

Have a great week, I'll see you back here next Thursday.