Monday, January 19, 2009

Above the Rim: Scoring Options at Guard

This is my second straight article about my hometown Cavaliers, and for me that is a bad sign because it means another key player is injured. This time it is Delonte West, out up to 6 weeks after a fracture in his right, non-shooting, wrist. As a Cavs fan, I am worried about losing depth as the Cavs’ schedule gets harder, but as a fantasy owner, this creates some interesting options. Also, the Wizards may have another scoring option to complement Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison.

Cavaliers
Sasha Pavlovic- When West went down, a lot of people assumed that Daniel Gibson would get most of the available playing time, but because Mike Brown values defense, he went with Pavlovic, a 6‘7” shooting guard. Pavlovic responded with an outstanding performance against the Hornets, making 7 of 10 shots, including 4 of 4 on three-pointers, for 19 points. Sasha also chipped in 6 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 assist, and no turnovers in 43 minutes during his first start of the season. While Pavlovic has not played much this season, and was never right last season after a holdout slowed him down and then injuries kept him from regaining his form, Pavlovic does have experience starting in a playoff hunt. Two years ago when the Cavs went to the finals against the Spurs, Sasha was the starting shooting guard and contributed with 9 points per game and 40.5% shooting on three-pointers, including 12.7 points on 47.7% shooting from the floor and 43.7% on threes in 28 starts. Pavlovic is averaging 42% off the bench on threes this season which is a good sign for fantasy owners who are looking to pick him up. With LeBron and Mo Williams driving, Sasha should get a lot of wide open looks, much like 3 of the 4 threes he hit against the Hornets. Pavlovic should provide consistent scoring with around 10-13 points per game and chip in with 4 rebounds filling in for West. While he won’t match West in assists or steals, his turnovers should be limited as well. Pavlovic is a solid pick-up.

Wally Szczerbiak- Even though Wally has been playing a lot of power forward this year, his playing time should increase with West out. He may get some time at guard and the Cavs may also go with their small lineup more often with Wally at PF. Averaging 6.6 points and 2.8 rebounds in 19 minutes per game this year, Szczerbiak is shooting 42.1% from the floor and 36.7% on threes this season. Wally played 29 minutes in the first game without West, and had 14 points in the first half as LeBron repeatedly found him wide open for three on kick outs. Wally converted 4 of 5, bringing the total for Sasha and Wally combined up to 8 of 9. Szczerbiak also contributed 4 rebounds and 2 assists with no turnovers. Like Pavlovic, Wally should provide steady scoring and outside shooting, probably around 8 points and 35-40% on threes while West is out. Look for a few rebounds and no turnovers as well, but not many assists.

LeBron James- If you are lucky enough to own him, LeBron may explode with the increased burden on him to score with Ilgauskas and West out. In his first game without West, against the New Orleans Hornets, LeBron scored 29 points, to go with 14 rebounds and 7 assists. At one point in the second half he scored 13 straight points for the Cavaliers and 19 of 24. With 2/5’s of his starting lineup out, LeBron will win or lose the MVP award in the next month, especially with match-ups against Kobe and the Lakers and Brandon Roy and Portland soon after his win over Chris Paul and the Hornets and I expect him to rise to the challenge and keep the Cavs winning.

Daniel Gibson- I don’t think Gibson’s playing time will increase much with West out, although it might a little. However, his responsibility in the offense should increase dramatically. Gibson is averaging 9 points on 40.4% shooting, 35.5% from three point range. I would expect a minor increase in points for Gibson, but a larger increase in his assists, which is currently at 1.8 per game. West handles the ball a lot when he is in, and Gibson should fit into this role better than Pavlovic and Szczerbiak.

Wizards
Nick Young- Young is the Wizards fourth leading scorer at 11 points per game on 46.7% shooting, 32.8% on threes. However, Young has exploded in his last five games. Young has scored 28, 12, 30, 33, and 13, and has been shooting a very high percentage. In only one game has his percentage been below 60% (42.9% against the Knicks on the 16th). Overall, Young has shot 66.2% in those five games. However, Young is a one trick pony; he does not contribute much in terms of rebounds or assists (only 1.9 and 1.4, respectively). If you need scoring and are willing to gamble that Young can continue to perform at a comparable level to his last five games, he is worth a pickup. If you need more than just scoring, you should probably pass on Young and try to find a player that is more balanced.




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