Jameer Nelson- Nelson has been the spark to the Magic’s offense this season. The Magic’s frontcourt of Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard get a lot of attention, but Nelson is the key to their success. Nelson is the only ballhandler on the team. With his torn right labrum, he may be out for the rest of the season, and the Magic will miss more than his 16.7 points, 5.4 assists, and his incredibly accurate shooting (50.3% from the floor, 45.3% from 3, and 88.7% from the free throw line). The Magic only had one true point guard on the roster backing Nelson up in veteran Anthony Johnson. While Johnson scored 25 points in his first start in place of Nelson, he won’t keep that up for longer than a few games, as shown by his fall back to Earth with 8 points in his second start and 6 points last night against New Jersey. Johnson did contribute 18 rebounds and 4 steals in those three games, but he only had 8 assists, which is pretty low for a point guard that is passing to three frontcourt players averaging over 17 points per game each. While Johnson could be adequate in place of Nelson, he is averaging only 5.6 points and 2.9 assists per game for his career, and I would expect him to continue that sort of production despite the 25 point outburst earlier this week.
The Magic traded Keith Bogans to the Bucks for point guard Tyronn Lue to back up Johnson, but he was only averaging 4.7 points and 1.5 assists off the bench in Milwaukee. In his first game with Orlando, Lue contributed all of 2 minutes and 6 seconds, hitting 2 free throws. Lue will be a back up to spell Johnson and insurance in case something happens, but I wouldn’t expect either one to merit a pick-up in your fantasy league.
I expect players like Courtney Lee and Mickael Pietrus to benefit the most from the available minutes and shots. Pietrus is averging 11.8 points on 46.3% shooting, including a respectable 35.2% on threes. Against New Jersey last night, he scored 17 points, including 4 threes. Lee on the other hand is a back-up guard averaging 7.2 points this season. He scored 21 in the first game without Nelson, but then fell to 8 and 3. I realize that this is very similar to what Anthony Johnson did when Nelson went down, but Lee is much more dynamic on offense and is quicker with the ability to penetrate and shoot. He might be worth keeping an eye on and picking up if he starts to get hot.
Elton Brand- Brand is the most consistent player in the league-- when he is on the court. A sure 20 point, 10 rebound player when healthy, Brand has played in only 29 games (out of 49) this season after playing in just 8 last season. Although he was only averaging 13.8 points and 8.8 rebounds, he may have been feeling the effects of the torn ACL that caused him to miss so many games last season. However, with a right shoulder injury, Brand is again out for the season meaning that this season and last season will see him play in 37 of 164 possible games. With Brand out, Thaddeus Young will help the Sixers down low as they try to keep a hold on a playoff spot in the East. Young, a second year player out of Georgia Tech, has followed up a solid rookie season (8.2 points and 4.2 assists while shooting 53.9%) with increased numbers this season. Young is averaging 13.5 points and 5 rebounds although his shooting has dipped to 47.8%. Young will have to increase his rebounding to help replace Brand’s 8.8 per game along with Samuel Dalembert (8.6) and Andre Iguodala (6.1). Both Iguodala and Young may be playing out of position for the rest of the season, but both have the athleticism to adjust and produce. Ideally, they would both be playing wings with Iguodala at the 2 and Young at the 3, but in the East, where most posts are smaller as opposed to the giants in the West, the Sixers should be able to play at about the same level as they have this season and make the playoffs.
One player to look at for the rest of the season is shooting guard Willie Green. He was probably headed to the bench when Brand returned from an earlier injury, but will now stay in the starting backcourt next to Andre Miller. Green’s scoring is down to 8.5 points per game this season from 12.5 last year, but this is due to fewer shots as his shooting percentage has improved from 43.6% to 44.5%. Green should be able to average close to 10 points for the rest of the season and could be a solid pick-up.
Milwaukee Bucks- Milwaukee is only a game out of the playoffs despite losing Michael Redd for the season and Andrew Bogut for eight weeks because of injuries. Their replacements in the starting lineup are Charlie Bell and Francisco Elson, respectively. Ramon Sessions initially stepped in for Redd, but when Luke Ridnour broke his thumb, Sessions slid over to point guard and Bell is now the 2. In his first 5 starts, Sessions scored between 16 and 20 points four times and had 8 in the fifth game before torching the Pistons for 44 along with 12 assists. Sessions also contributed games of 6, 6, and 7 assists just prior to the Pistons game. On the season, Sessions has averaged 11.4 points and 4.5 assists and those numbers should improve with his increased playing time and the injuries making him the third option on offense after Richard Jefferson and Charlie Villanueva. Bell has been a solid player for the Bucks this year, averaging 6.8 points off the bench. Bell’s real value comes on defense, but the last time he received playing time as a starter, in 2006-2007, he averaged 13.5 points per game. Bell could push his average up into double figures while Ridnour is out for the next month or so. Sessions is worth picking up for the rest of the season.
Down low, even though Elson is the new starter, I expect Villanueva to increase his value the most as a result of the injury to Bogut. Villanueva was getting hot just before the injury and should get more rebounding opportunities with Bogut 10+ rebounds per game out of the lineup. Villanueva may miss Bogut’s passing ability, but he should also see an increase in touches because Bogut was averaging 9 shots per game and Villanueva is the next best option in the post. Villanueva scored 33 points against Detroit last week following up his monstrous January in which he averaged 20 points and 7 rebounds. Villanueva’s production was improving throughout the month and could continue to climb with his increased opportunities. Elson on the other hand was only averaging 2.8 points and 3.2 rebounds when Bogut went down. In four starts since the injury, he has only 12 points although he has contributed 29 rebounds (just over 7 per game). Elson’s production is probably going to be limited to rebounding and occasionally a few points. I would expect Ben Wallace type production from him.
With these injuries and the Bucks depth at the 3 (Jefferson, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Joe Alexander), the Bucks may explore putting Villanueva at center and playing with two 3s at times given how well Mbah a Moute has played this year. The rookie is averaging 7.2 points and 5.9 rebounds and has been a very effective defender. Joe Alexander would give the Bucks depth off the bench, if Coach Scott Skiles decides to play a small lineup for the rest of the season. Alexander is averaging only 4.4 points and 2 rebounds per game this season, but a gradual increase in minutes could lead him to play like he did at West Virginia when he was routinely the best player on the court, a player with good size that could also step back and hit jump shots with the best shooters in the Big East.
Lakers-Bobcats Trade- I was scratching my head at this one until I watched the Cavs-Lakers game this afternoon and the announcers said it was probably a salary cap move designed to allow the Lakers to resign Lamar Odom at season’s end. Vladimir Radmanovic had been a solid shooter and bench player for the Lakers and I expected them to go to him more often with Andrew Bynum injured. He had provided an outside threat from the 4 position as well as rebounding off the bench. In return, the Lakers receive two underachieving former first round picks. Adam Morrison was one of my favorite players in college and I would like to see him do well, but he has yet to shoot 40% from the floor in his career and missed all of last season with a knee injury. If he can find the talent that made him a co-player of the year in college, this could be a steal for the Lakers. Imagine Bynum and Pau Gasol down low with Kobe and Adam Morrison circa his Gonzaga years on the wings. That team could score 120 a night. Right now, I don’t see Morrison getting significant, if any, minutes. He didn’t play against Cleveland today despite the Lakers losing two big men (Bynum and Radmanovic) recently.
Shannon Brown is another interesting pick-up. A former McDonald’s All-American, Brown has struggled for consistency since coming into the league. Brown would enter in mop up duty and absolutely dominate at times and even had a stretch in Cleveland a few years back where he was averaging double figures while replacing an injured starter. In this, his third season, Brown is finally shooting above 40% (45.5%), but he was only playing 11 minutes per game for Larry Brown’s Bobcats. It appears the Lakers had an eye on the salary cap when they made this trade, because there doesn’t appear to be much room or time to devote to developing the potential of these previously highly touted players. This trade hurt their fantasy value much more than it helped. In Charlotte, they had a chance at playing time, but in LA, they may be the Lakers practice squad.
Radmanovic in Charlotte is interesting to me because Brown is assembling a team of role players without a go-to-guy. Gerald Wallace (currently injured) may score around 20 per game, but that is more due to a lack of a true scoring threat than him being a number 1 threat. Radmanovic, Raja Bell, and Boris Diaw are all starting now and the one thing in common for all of them is that they used to be effective role players on Western Conference powerhouses. The only other players on Charlotte with the ability to score are point guards Raymond Felton and D.J. Augustin, and center Emeka Okafor. Okafor is probably never going to score over 15 per game, and there aren’t many successful offenses that expect the point guards to carry the offensive load. Nonetheless, this may all be a good sign for Radmanovic owners. With no other scorers on the Bobcats, Vlad should get a lot of shots and rebounding opportunities. He could be like a poor man’s Trukoglu, playing the 3 at 6’10”. Radmanovic could average 13-15 points with 6 rebounds for the rest of the season. He should be worth a look in most fantasy leagues.
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