Above the Rim: NBA Season Preview

The NBA season kicks off with the Cavaliers and the Celtics tomorrow night in a rematch of the 2008 Eastern Conference Finals (the Magic derailed the Celtics to ruin another matchup in the 2009 Conference Finals). This year’s offseason was fairly quiet with a lot of movement early and an unusual lack of off the court drama.

The contenders in the East and the West got richer this year without any teams making moves to join their ranks (the Pistons picking up Ben Gordon and Charlie Villaneuva should be enough to get them into the playoffs, but they will lose in the first round).

• The Cavaliers picked up Shaquille O’Neal early in the offseason to start the movement. While many seem to think that Shaq won’t perform at a high level, I think they are underestimating the Big Aristotle. He was an all-star last year in Phoenix averaging 17.8 points and 8.4 rebounds and Cleveland will be able to keep him fresh with Zydrunas Ilgauskas backing him up at center. Also, even if Shaq does not match his numbers from last year and settles around 14 points and 7 rebounds, it is still a large improvement over what the Cavs got from Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic last season. The Cavaliers then added Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon to increase their depth and athleticism at the shooting guard, small forward, and power forward positions. The Cavs are also expecting former Celtic Leon Powe back by the all-star break after off-season knee surgery.


• The Celtics also improved by adding Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels to their bench and, currently, are healthy after losing Kevin Garnett down the stretch. I think Wallace will be an effective pickup, but will not match his 12 points and 7.4 rebounds from last season with less looks on offense. I have always liked Daniels and he has proven he can be effective off the bench.


• The Orlando Magic had surprisingly high turnover on their roster after winning the Eastern Conference last season. The net result: Hedo Turkoglu, Rafer Alston, and Courtney Lee are all gone after contributing to the Magic’s run in the playoffs and are replaced by Vince Carter, Brandon Bass, and Ryan Anderson. I feel the Magic are worse off for the changes. Their bench is weaker with Mickael Pietrus stepping into the starting lineup at small forward because there isn’t an explosive player on the bench to replace him. Bass will help at the power forward and Anderson can shoot, but neither can match how effective Pietrus was. Lee was poised to break out this season and should have a good year in New Jersey where he will get more looks on offense. Carter is good, but he is getting older and has peaked. Swapping him for Turkoglu in the starting lineup also eliminates the matchup problems that a 6’11” point forward like Turkoglu created. His flexibility was a big reason why the Magic were able to knock off the Cavs last year. With a more traditional offense, the Magic lose that advantage and will struggle with both the Cavs and Celtics.


• The Lakers were the champions and then swapped Trevor Ariza, a potential star, for Ron Artest, an established star who I thought deserved top finish in the top 5 for MVP last season. The Lakers may also get something from Adam Morrison off the bench this season after getting him from Charlotte last season. After getting Shannon Brown from the Cavs, Brown developed into a nice role player within a season, and Morrison could be on track to follow in his footsteps.

Off-court drama in the NBA this off-season that could carry over into the regular season.

• How is the Stephen Jackson situation in Golden State going to unfold? After signing an extension, Jackson wants out for New York, Cleveland, or a team in Texas. The Cavs don’t have the pieces to make it happen and New York wants to maintain cap room for the 2010 free agent class. So where will Jackson end up…


• Toronto? The rumor a few weeks ago was a trade that would send Jackson to the Raptors for Chris Bosh. Bosh is a free agent in 2010 and is probably on his way back to the states. Toronto may try to cut its losses and get something back for Bosh if they are not in contention. However, the Raptors picked up Turkoglu this off-season and should be able to make the playoffs. Also, if they trade Bosh for Jackson, their leading rebounder from last season would be Andrea Bargnani, a 7 footer who plays more like a shooting guard instead of a post player, with only 5.3 rebounds per game. I look for Bosh to stay put in Toronto until at least the all-star break when the front office will have to evaluate how the season is going.


• Delonte West in Cleveland broke the silence of the off-season when he was arrested outside of Washington D.C. with pistols on his ankle and in his waistband, and a shotgun in a guitar case on his back. West left the team last year in training camp to get help with depression and bi-polar disorder. Supposedly, he was off his medication at the time of the arrest and is back on it now. Based on last season, West should be ok once the season gets started; he seems to cope better when he is around the other Cavs as he had his best season last year. However, the Cavs will probably have to play without him for a while as he will probably get suspended for a few games for his arrest.

Where is LeBron going?

• This story has been relatively quiet during the off-season as the economy will probably lower the salary cap next season restricting the number of teams that can offer him a full contract, or offer LeBron and another player max contracts. While the New York media, especially the New York Post, likes to write articles about why LeBron is coming to the Knicks, the rest of the country seems to think that LeBron will be back in Cleveland with an extension after the season. While I think that is probably what will happen, I still expect a steady stream of articles about LeBron leaving every time the Cavs play the Knicks or the Nets.

So what do we have to look forward to this season?

• LeBron James will win his second straight MVP award. His scoring may dip a bit as he shares the ball with Shaq and the other newcomers, but his rebounds and assists could jump as he plays off the ball a little more. I expect his assists to go up especially with Shaq in the post and Parker, whom coach Mike Brown said was the best shooter he has seen since Reggie Miller, on the wing. The Cavs were a 66 win team last season and improved, so they should be the top team in the East again which will help James in the MVP vote. Dark horse- Brandon Roy will lead the Blazers to the second best record in the West and will become one of the league’s elite players.


• Blake Griffin will run away with the Rookie of the Year. Last year’s best college player will get plenty of opportunities to produce for the dysfunctional Clippers and should average close to 15 points and 8 rebounds. A double-double average is an outside possibility as well. Second round surprises- Pitt Panthers Dajuan Blair and Sam Young were both productive and fundamentally sound players in college that will produce in the NBA this season. Blair will be a force in the post off the bench for the Spurs and Young should get looks for the Grizzlies at multiple positions.


• The Cavaliers and Celtics will play a classic series to decide the Eastern Conference championship for the second time in three years. This series will probably come down to who has home court advantage, but the Cavaliers are younger overall and have a little more depth on the bench and will be able to avoid and overcome injuries better than the Celtics. The series will go to seven games, but the Cavs should make their second appearance in the NBA Finals in four years where they will play …


• The LA Lakers. The Lakers are head and shoulders above every team in the West. It is kind of like when Larry Bird asked the other 3-point shooters who was going to finish second behind him at the 3-point shootout; there are talented teams out West, but this race is basically already decided. The only team I expect to give the Lakers trouble are the emerging Blazers. They played LA tough in the playoffs last season and should improve with another year of experience. I expect the Blazers to take the Lakers to six or seven games in the Western Conference Finals.


• In the NBA Finals, the NBA will finally have its Kobe-LeBron matchup. While the Lakers have the experience and may be the better team on paper, this series is too close to call. I would probably give the Lakers a 60-40 advantage today (which kills me as a Clevelander), but this series could go either way if LeBron or Kobe gets hot or if Shaq gets an adrenaline boost from playing against Kobe again.

Above the Rim: NBA Finals Recap

With the Lakers 5-game defeat of the Magic in the NBA Finals, some long-standing questions have been answered. Kobe Bryant has won a title without Shaquille O'Neal and Phil Jackson has won the 10th title (passing Red Auerbach) that has eluded him since Shaq left LA.

Kobe was himself in this series, one of the best clutch players in the NBA, on his way to winning Finals MVP. Kobe averaged over 32 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists while hitting an array of shots in the series. There was little to find fault with in Kobe's game as the only real blemish in the series was his 7 turnovers in game 2, which the Lakers overcame to win in overtime.

Derek Fisher appeared to find his game just in time to snatch a victory away from the Magic in game 4 by hitting a three with 4.6 seconds left to send the game into overtime and then another to help the Lakers pull away in overtime. Overall, the Finals were Fisher's best series of the playoffs as he averaged 11 points per game and provided defense and veteran leadership.

The play of Pau Gasol, Trevor Ariza, and Lamar Odom, while not overwhelming, was more than enough support for Kobe to enable the Lakers to dominate this series. Gasol was quietly dominate, shooting at least 50% in every game (60% for the series) while averaging 18 points and 9 rebounds including 3 double-doubles. Ariza didn't shoot very well in the series but provided scoring, rebounding, and defense throughout the series to help the Lakers contain the Magic's potentially explosive offense. Odom scored 13 points per game off the bench and provided 2 double-doubles while getting the bulk of the playing time over Andrew Bynum. So much for the sugar crash that was publicized on ESPN for a week leading up to the series.

Jackson's contribution to the series may be overlooked amid all the storylines about Kobe, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson's return, and Fisher's jumper. Jackson's defensive strategy contained a Magic team that repeatedly came back from large deficits against the Cavs in the conference finals. The Magic shot over 33.3% from three-point range just once in the series (35.7% in a game 3 win) after shooting over 40% for the majority of the conference finals. This decrease provided the margin of victory in games 2 and 4, and possibly game 5. If Jackson's strategy did not address this aspect of the Magic's offense, this series could have been a 5-game Magic victory.

Also important to the Lakers victory is the job they did defensively on Dwight Howard. While Howard had a double-double in all five games and just missed a triple-double by one block in game 4, the Lakers held him below his scoring average and forced him into numerous turnovers. Howard scored 20 points just once in the series and was held to 12 and 11 in games 1 and 5, respectively. Also, Howard had 7 turnovers in both games 2 and 4 (both close losses), and his missed free throws late in the fourth quarter of game 4 gave Fisher the opportunity to tie the game with his late three-pointer.

Overall, the Magic were not consistent enough to defeat the Lakers. Rafer Alston was invisible in LA before finding his shot in game 3 in Orlando. Rashard Lewis played well in games 2 and 3, but shot below 30% for the rest of the series. Hedo Turkoglu played well, but with the rest of the team being held below their scoring averages, it wasn't enough. Jameer Nelson's return to the court appeared to have more of an emotional impact then anything, and Mickael Pietrus, like Alston, disappeared for two games. For a team like the Magic to win, they need to hit their perimeter shots, and when they go cold, like they did for most of the Finals, they are very beatable. Howard could not overcome the Lakers' bigs and the hot streaks disappeared enabling the Lakers to a relatively easy Finals victory.

Above the Rim: NBA Finals Preview

Kobe Bryant will lead the Lakers against Superman Dwight Howard and the Magic in the NBA Finals. While the Magic won both regular season matchups, the Lakers will win this matchup for the championship, cementing Kobe’s legacy with his fourth championship and first without Shaquille O’Neal. Kobe’s detractors will finally have to give him his due and Phil Jackson will finally have his tenth title.

Conference Finals
Eastern- Magic in 6 (my pick- Cavaliers in 5)
Western- Lakers in 6 (my pick- Nuggets in 7)

If the Lakers play smart defensively by not double-teaming Dwight Howard down low, they should win this series easily. However, if they insist on double-teaming Howard, the Magic will make them pay by converting wide-open three-pointers, much like they did in defeating Cleveland. The Magic shot over 40% in three of their four wins in the series. The only time they didn’t shot 40%, they hit 39 of 51 free throws to make up for the lack of three pointers. The Lakers should focus on shutting down Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Rafer Alson, and Mickael Pietrus instead of Dwight Howard. If Howard scores 40 points, but the Magic only hit 5 or 6 three pointers, the Lakers will win the game. However, if the Magic can combine a 25-30 point game from Howard with 10 three pointers, the Lakers may lose this series.

Point Guard- Derek Fisher vs. Rafer Alston
Fisher hasn’t had the best playoffs offensively, but he is a veteran with finals experience which will help the Lakers in this series. Alston is a offensive, shooting point guard who had 18 point and 26 point games against the Cavs in games 3 and 4 of the conference finals. Fisher has scored in the double figures in only 3 of his last 13 games, but he is a savvy veteran and will make Alston work.
Advantage- Lakers

Shooting Guard- Kobe Bryant vs. Courtney Lee
Courtney Lee has hit some big shots for the Magic and has played well, but he is out of his league both offensively and defensively against Kobe. Lee has hit double figures just twice since his sinus injury while Kobe has scored under 20 just three times this postseason (and has scored 40+ three times). Kobe can take over a game, and Lee does not have the defensive skills to cover Kobe. Defensively Kobe will shut Lee down and shouldn’t have to exert himself too much to do so. This will allow Kobe to stay fresher during games and be more of a force offensively. At times against the Nuggets, Kobe looked tired and the Lakers needed Pau Gasol to carry the offensive load. This round, Kobe should be able to stay refreshed and take over when he has to.
Advantage- Lakers

Small Forward- Trevor Ariza vs. Hedo Turkoglu
Ariza is a shut down defender that has come on in the playoffs. He has sealed numerous games with his defense so far and provides enough offense to punish teams for not paying attention to him defensively. Turkoglu is a good player, but highly inconsistent. He can both score and pass, but has limited agility and could struggle with someone like Ariza guarding him. In the conference finals, Turkoglu struggled when LeBron, another lengthy, agile defender, was guarding him, so expect more of the same with Ariza matched up on Hedo.
Advantage- Lakers

Power Forward- Lamar Odom vs. Rashard Lewis
While Odom may not start for the Lakers, he is going to see the majority of minutes at the 4 because he presents the best matchup defensively on Lewis, a quick, athletic power forward with 3-point shooting range. Odom has the quickness and size to matchup on Lewis, something the Cavs lacked when LeBron was on Turkoglu. The Lakers have a better mix of athletic big men than the Cavs and should be able to matchup better defensively. Odom may also be able to score fairly routinely against Lewis as neither player is known for their defensive prowess. If Odom can score 2 points for every 3 points Lewis scores, the Lakers have to feel like that is a win because Kobe will make that up against Lee.
Advantage- Magic

Center- Pau Gasol vs. Dwight Howard
While the Lakers will play Andrew Bynum here at times, Gasol will get most of the minutes. Howard is going to play like a monster in the post, grabbing rebounds, blocking shots, and dunking. To neutralize his effect on the game, the Lakers should concentrate on keeping him off the offensive glass where a lot of his points come from put backs and to drive at him to get him in foul trouble. When the Cavs were effective against Orlando, it was when they were able to minimize Howard’s minutes and aggressiveness by getting him into foul trouble. Howard is going to score 20+ points and grab 12-15 rebounds and that should be ok with the Lakers. Howard scoring 30+ per game shouldn’t be a big deal unless the Magic shooters are hitting a lot of three-pointers. Gasol should also have a good series as his range will force Howard to step out of the paint defensively. Gasol is one of the most skilled big men in the league, and while he can’t match Howard’s strength or athleticism, his passing and shooting ability will be able to counter Howard’s effect.
Advantage- Magic

Bench- Lakers vs. Mickael Pietrus
The only bench player that really matters for Orlando is sniper Pietrus. He outscored Cleveland’s bench by himself in the conference finals, but the Lakers bench is deeper and more effective than the Cavs. Andrew Bynum, Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, Luke Walton, and Sasha Vujacic all give the Lakers quality minutes and offense off the bench. Not only should they be able to match Pietrus’s scoring off the bench, but they will be able to keep the Lakers’ starters fresh while Pietrus will only be able to give Turkoglu, Alston, and Lee breathers. The Lakers have Walton and Bynum down low to spell Gasol and Odom, while the Magic only have Marcin Gortat and Tony Battie to play in the post. Walton and Bynum both have a wide advantage offensively over Gortat and Battie, and Walton has the agility to defend either Lewis or Turkoglu on the perimeter. Vujacic and Brown are both offensive powder kegs that can score in bunched if they get hit, much like Pietrus. Overall, the Lakers have more impact players off the bench and should win this battle.
Advantage- Lakers

The Lakers have the advantage at both guard positions and off the bench, while the Magic own an advantage on the frontline. However, the Lakers advantage at both guard positions is fairly wide, while the margin at small forward and power forward is almost a push because the Lakers matchup well with the Magic at those positions. While the Magic have more skill, the Lakers may be able to neutralize it. While the Magic have Superman in the middle, Gasol is an all-star as well and should be able to counter most of Howard’s offense. Off the bench, if Pietrus has an off game, the Lakers will have a wide advantage in bench scoring and will win that matchup.

Prediction- Lakers in 6, MVP Kobe Bryant

Above the Rim: Conference Finals Edition

Four questions heading into the Conference Finals:
Can anyone beat the Cavaliers?
Are the Lakers going to start playing to their potential?
Can Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony lead the Nuggets to an upset?
Can the Magic hit enough threes to overcome LeBron and the Cavs?

Second Round Results:
Eastern Conference
Cavaliers v. Hawks- Cavs in 4 (my prediction- Cavs in 5)
Celtics v. Magic- Magic in 7 (me- Magic in 6)
Western Conference
Lakers v. Rockets- Lakers in 7 (me- Lakers in 6)
Nuggets v. Mavericks- Nuggets in 5 (me- Nuggets in 6)

Eastern Conference Finals
Cavaliers (1) v. Magic (3)- Magic win regular season 2-1 (home team won every game)
The Magic won the regular season matchup between these two teams, but a few things change in the playoffs. The Cavs will have 4 home games if the series goes to seven games, and the Magic did not win in Cleveland this year. Also, the Cavs have elevated their game to an entirely different level in the playoffs. Actually, since February 11, the Cavs are 35-4 (including 8-0 in the playoffs) and one of those losses was a season ending loss to the 76ers in which LeBron James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Mo Williams didn’t play. Additionally, the Cavs lost two in a row only twice all season, meaning the Magic almost have to win game 1 to take the series.
If the Cavs continue to play at the level they have been at all playoffs, this will be a short series. The Cavs are only giving up 78.125 points per game in the playoffs with their opponents’ high being only 85 (by the Hawks in game 3). The opponent has scored over 80 points in only 4 of 8 games. The offense, on the other hand, has averaged 94.875 so far in the playoffs and scored under 90 only twice. One of the best signs for the Cavs is how well they have played as a team. LeBron and Delonte West have both increased their scoring averages in the playoffs, but Williams, Ilgauskas, and Anderson Varejao are well below their averages. The reason the Cavs have overcome this is because their team defense has absolutely throttled the opposition and because at least one Cavalier has stepped up in each game of the playoffs. West has scored over 20 points twice, Joe Smith played like a monster in the Pistons series, and Wally Szczerbiak scored 17 in game 2 against Atlanta. Also, while Williams has scored over 20 points in 3 games, he has been inconsistent thus far in the playoffs, averaging only 14.7 points per game. However, even when Mo is having an off game, he still hits big shots. For example, despite scoring only 12 points and turning the ball over 4 times in game 4 against Atlanta, he hit 4 of 7 three-pointers including a big three to seal the win. The Cavs team mentality has allowed them to win big despite not everyone playing well currently. Despite the decrease in scoring from some of their key players, this is by far the best any team has played all season long.
The Magic need everything to click to beat the Cavs in this series. Dwight Howard should be able to score 20 points per game against Ilguaskas, Varejao, Smith, and Ben Wallace, but with 4 post players, the Cavs have 24 fouls to use on Howard to force him to the free throw line. The Cavs will be focused more on containing the Magic’s stable of perimeter shooters. To overcome the Cavs suffocating defense, the Magic will need Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Rafer Alston, Mickael Pietrus, Courtney Lee, and J.J. Redick to consistently hit their shots from three point range. The Magic relied heavily on the 3 in the regular season, hitting 10 of 26 per game for just over 38%. In the playoffs, they are 7.3 of 22.6 for 32.5%. To beat Cleveland, they will need to shoot closer to 38% because the Cavs will stifle the Magic’s offense. If the Magic can shoot consistently from the perimeter, they have a chance to knock Cleveland off, but if they are around 33%, the Cavs will win this series.
Prediction- Cavs in 5

Western Conference Finals
Lakers (1) v. Nuggets (2)- Lakers win regular season 3-1
In the regular season, there was a wide gap between the #1 seed Lakers and the rest of the West. In the playoffs, the gap has appeared to close considerably as the #5 seed Rockets took the Lakers to seven games, winning two games after Yao Ming went down with a broken foot. The Nuggets have stepped up their game winning eight of ten in the first two rounds, absolutely dominating the Hornets in round 1 and losing just a close game to the Mavericks in round 2. In the playoffs, the Nuggets are the only team to avoid a letdown game other than the Cavaliers. The Lakers, on the other hand, repeatedly have had letdown games, blowing a 17 point lead to the Jazz in round 1 for their only loss of the series and then dropping game 1 in LA to the Rockets. After Yao went down, the Rockets still won 2 of 4 games. The Lakers inconsistency shows the most in games 5, 6, and 7. In game 5, they won by 40 and were winning by 31 late in game 7, but in game 6, the Rockets dominated from start to finish to stretch the series. The Lakers are (should be) the best team in the West, but the best team is not supposed to play with such inconsistency and should have easily put away a Rockets team that was playing without its only two centers with Yao and Dikembe Mutumbo out. I was very disappointed with the Lakers in this series. While the Rockets matched up with the Lakers well, the way the Lakers lost some of those games was very disappointing. If the Lakers play this way against the Nuggets, they will lose this series before game 7.
In this series, the Nuggets could give the Lakers some matchup problems. Carmelo Anthony should be able to have his way with Luke Walton, but may have some difficulty when Trevor Ariza matches up with him. Chauncey Billups should also be able to have a good series with Derek Fisher matching up against him. Billups is better than Aaron Brooks who just finished dominating Fisher. In the post, the Lakers have Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom, and while all three have played well in the last few games, the Nuggets possess better interior defenders than the depleted Rockets. Nene, Kenyon Martin, and Chris Anderson supply a complementary package of energy, agility, and toughness. Nene will provide scoring and efficiency on the offensive end and contribute rebounds as well as over a steal and a block per game on the defensive end. Martin, of Mark Cuban’s comments aside, will provide physicality inside that Gasol and Bynum will not like. As skilled as the Lakers big men are, none are considered tough physical players. Martin will be able to take them out of their offensive games and will use his strength to score inside and grab some rebounds. Anderson is going to give the Lakers fits when they try to drive. He averaged 2.5 blocks per game in only 20 minutes and will not only match up well with any of the Lakers’ bigs, but will also make Kobe and the Lakers think twice about driving when he is waiting to swat their shot. J.R. Smith and Linas Kleiza join Anderson off the bench to create a much more formidable bench then the Rockets had. Both Smith and Kleiza can shoot the lights out when they get going, and Smith can match anyone in the league in athleticism. The weak link for the Nuggets is Dahntay Jones who will draw Kobe Bryant defensively. At 6’6”, Jones has the size to play with Kobe, and he showed his defensive quickness by containing Chris Paul in the first round, but Kobe is a different breed of scorer. If Jones can prevent Kobe from going for 30, the Nuggets should win, but if Kobe gets going, the Nuggets will be in trouble. The key for the Nuggets will be to shut down the post players. If Nene, Martin, and Anderson can harass Gasol, Bynum, and Odom, Kobe may have to average 40 a game for the Lakers to win. Don’t underestimate the importance of this matchup because the Nuggets have a legitimate chance of beating the Lakers if they can contain the post.
The Lakers, more than anything else in this series, need Bynum to show up. When they won big against Houston, Bynum had a productive game and stayed out of foul trouble. The games in which they struggled, Bynum didn’t play much with foul trouble. When the Lakers play to their potential, they are as good as anyone in the NBA, but they haven’t showed the ability to maintain that level of play. Championship teams have that killer instinct where they can put teams away quickly. The Lakers didn’t show that when Yao went down. The Lakers should have reeled off two straight to put that series away. Instead, the Rockets managed to split 4 games. If the Lakers can find their rhythm, they will win this series, but if the bench and Bynum continue to play inconsistently, Fisher continues to struggle, and even Kobe continues to have some letdown games, the Lakers will be sent home early and avoid a dream matchup with the Cavs.
Prediction- Nuggets in 7

Above the Rim: Playoff Update

The first round of the NBA playoffs gave us some blowouts (Cavs-Pistons, Nuggets-Hornets) and a classic (Bulls-Celtics). Overall, there was only one real upset, the Mavericks knocking off the shorthanded Spurs. With the second round kicking off yesterday, here is a look at the next round.

First round results:
Eastern Conference
Cavs in 4 (my prediction- Cavs in 5)
Celtics in 7 (me- Bulls in 6)
Magic in 6 (me- Magic in 6)
Hawks in 7 (me- Hawks in 5)
Western Conference
Lakers in 5 (me- Lakers in 5)
Nuggets in 5 (me- Nuggets in 5)
Mavericks in 5 (me- Mavericks in 7)
Rockets in 6 (me- Rockets in 6)

Eastern Conference
Cavaliers (1) vs. Hawks (4); regular season- Cavs 2-1
Prediction- Cavaliers in 5
The Cavs have not played since April 26th, but this is not a team to get lazy and by unprepared, despite the long layoff. The veterans on this team (Joe Smith and Zydrunas Ilgauskas for example), along with LeBron James, will not let this team suffer a letdown. I expect the Cavs to come out fired up on Tuesday for game 1 and pick up where they left off against the Pistons. With the first two games in Cleveland where the Cavs are 41-2, including the playoffs, this year, the Hawks could be in for a couple of long games. After a bruising seven game series against the Heat that left Al Horford and Marvin Williams battered, the Hawks will not be 100% for this series. The Hawks are an improvement over Detroit and should be competitive in two games in Atlanta where I expect them to give the Cavs their first loss of the playoffs, but Cleveland will end this series in game 5 back in Cleveland.
The Hawks do have a younger, more athletic team than the Pistons, but Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, and Mike Bibby will not be able to give the Cavs a serious test in round 2. The Cavs have too much talent and depth. With Delonte West and Mo Williams having rough opening series against Detroit, LeBron James played like a monster, but had solid support from Ilgauskas and Smith. Joe Smith (aka Joe Beast on his new rap album) showed why the Cavs picked him up after the Thunder bought him out. Smith was arguably the Cavs second best player in the series.
Look for Williams and West to bounce back in this series and LeBron to continue his dominance; he is playing like a man possessed right now. Smith, Bibby, and Johnson should make the series more competitive than the Pistons in round 1, but the Cavs are by far the superior team and are well rested. The chance of a sweep in this series is better than the Hawks chance at an upset.

Celtics (2) vs. Magic (3); regular season- 2-2 (Magic won the last two)
Prediction- Magic in 6
The Celtics were banged up going into the playoffs with Kevin Garnett, then they lost Leon Powe in their first round series with the Bulls. Stephon Marbury has not been effective since the Celtics picked him up. Point guard Rajon Rondo’s ankle may not be 100% either. On top of all this, the Celtics are coming off of a brutal seven game series with the Bulls that featured 4 overtime games and 7 overtime periods. The Magic are looking good after beating the Sixers in 6 games, including game 6 without Dwight Howard who was suspended. If the Magic can get their shooters (Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Rafer Alston) hot, they will be very tough to beat in the playoffs. Courtney Lee should be back from his fractured sinus and J.J. Reddick (15 points on 5-7 shooting from 3-point range) played well in game 6 when he replaced him in the starting lineup.
The Celtics will be tough in this series, but the extra time and hits from this series will wear on them as this series goes longer.
The most important match-up in this series is Kendrick Perkins against Dwight Howard. Perkins needs to stay out of foul trouble for the Celtics to win this series. Against the Bulls, the Celtics struggled without Perkins in the game because there was no interior defender to intimidate the Bulls. If Perkins misses time with foul trouble, Dwight Howard will have a monster series. If Perkins can play 40-45 minutes a game, the Celtics may have a chance to pull this series out. Any production offensively from Perkins would be nice, but if he can neutralize Howard’s impact in the paint and on the boards while picking up some rebounds and discouraging the rest of the Magic from driving, he could help the Celtics win this series. Without Perkins, the Celtics will have to get outstanding shooting from Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Eddie House to pull this one out. Even with good series from those shooters, the Celtics will have to contain the Magic’s stable of shooters as well. Expect a good series, but the Celtics will get worn down and lose the last few games to get eliminated.

Western Conference
Lakers (1) vs. Rockets (5); regular season- Lakers 4-0
Prediction- Lakers in 6
I know the Lakers swept the season series against the Rockets, but this Houston team has just started playing well together. Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowery have stepped up their games down the stretch after the Rockets traded Alston to the Magic, and the front line rotation of Shane Battier, Yao Ming, Luis Scola, and Ron Artest may be one of the strongest frontlines in the league. Those four players are what I think should scare the Lakers in this series. The Rockets just beat a very good Blazers team in just 5 games, and they will not be intimidated by the Lakers. The Rockets matchup with the Lakers very well defensively. Artest will make this series extremely frustrating for Kobe Bryant and if he needs a break, Battier is one of the best defensive players in the league. In the post, Yao’s length should bother Pau Gasol, and Luis Scola is tough and physical and should neutralize Andrew Bynum. That leaves Battier and Artest to guard Lamar Odom, another favorable matchup for the Rockets. Lakers point guard Derek Fisher should have an edge on Brooks and Lowery, and the Lakers bench of Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, Trevor Ariza, and Shannon Brown (and Luke Walton if he can play) should have their way with the Rockets bench of Von Wafer, Lowery, and Carl Landry.
For the Rockets to win this series, their veteran post players and Artest need to have big series both offensively and defensively. This team gets after it defensively, so the Rockets could make the series interesting, but overall, there isn’t enough firepower to knock off the Lakers. This will be the Lakers hardest series until the NBA finals though.
The Lakers will rely heavily on their stars, Kobe and Gasol, to pull them through the tough defense in this series. They have been here before and they want the burden of putting the team on their backs and leading them back to the finals. Fisher and Odom are also veterans that know what it takes to buckle down and do what it takes to get it done in the playoffs. But the key to this series will be how Kobe plays against Artest and how the Lakers bench plays against the Rockets. On paper, the Lakers should win these matchups and take the series, but Artest has played very well this season and could surprise everyone and play Kobe close to even. If that happens the Lakers will need their deep, but occasionally streaky bench to execute and give the Lakers the edge in this series. Don’t be surprised if this is a low scoring, physical series with a lot of close games. The Lakers should win, but if the Rockets get a couple of breaks early in the series, the Lakers could be in for a scare.

Nuggets (2) vs. Mavericks (6); regular season- 4-0 Nuggets; series currently 1-0 Denver
Prediction- Nuggets in 6
The Nuggets won the regular season matchup 4-0, but two of those games were decided by 2 points and a third by 3. The Mavericks were also banged up in the regular season, notably with Josh Howard battling injuries. The Mavs looked good in the opening round against the Spurs, winning in 5 games. Down the stretch and into the playoffs, the Mavericks started playing very well as they got healthy and are a dangerous 6 seed. However, the Mavs are only seven deep. They rely heavily on the scoring of Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, and 6th man Jason Terry and the dual point guard play of Jason Kidd and Jose Juan Barea. Erick Dampier and Brandon Bass are also key contributors for this team with Dampier providing toughness and rebounding in the post and Bass contributing off the bench. Antoine Wright also contributes, but the Mavs don’t expect much from the rest of their squad.
The Nuggets, on the other hand, have a ton of depth. Starters Chauncey Billups, Dahntay Jones, Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin, and Nene Hilario play together very well, and, with the exception of Jones, a defensive specialist, all are effective scorers. Off the bench, J.R. Smith matches Terry’s production, but the Nuggets add Linas Kleiza’s shooting, Anthony Carter’s ballhandling and penetrating ability, and Chris “Birdman” Anderson’s energy to the mix. The Mavericks have no answer for this trio of depth and versatility in skills. Anderson is the X-factor of this group as he can effectively shut down the lane when he is in the game. At 6’10” (without the mohawk) and a longer wingspan, Anderson controls the boards and has an affinity for blocking shots. While Kidd and Barea like to drive, they need to think twice with the Birdman waiting to swat their shots as soon as it leaves their hand. In game 1, Anderson picked up 11 points, but his 6 rebounds led the team and he also blocked 6 shots. With two point guards that like to penetrate, the Mavericks need to hope Anderson doesn’t do this every game or it could be a quick series. When you watch Anderson play, it appears that his favorite thing to do is block shots, which is probably why he picks up a few goaltending violations in many games, but that aggressiveness could win this series for the Nuggets.
Unless Nowitzki and Howard explode in this series, the Nuggets should continue to roll into a matchup with the Lakers, but they won’t average 20+ per victory over the Mavericks like they did against New Orleans. The Mavericks will keep the series competitive, but, like with the Lakers series, the bench will make the difference for the Nuggets leading to an intriguing matchup of deep teams in the Western Conference finals.

SportsJudge.com PTI: Can Kobe Match Wilt?

[Editors Note: Welcome back to SportsJudge.com's take on Pardon The Interruption. On a bi-weekly basis, SportsJudge.com authors, Chris Stanley and Adam Primm, will take on a PTI-style debate about a topic of their choosing. Chris and Adam are friends, roommates, and Ohio State law students. This week, the 100-point game.]

Chris Stanley:
Adam and I have been discussing whether Wilt Chamberlain’s 100 point performance in an NBA game is within reach. Adam thinks the record is absolutely, 100% untouchable. After Kobe Bryant’s 81 point game last season, I think it just might be breakable.

100 points is a ridiculous number, but don’t let it blind you. Lets look at a possible scenario that just might result in a new NBA single game scoring record. Kobe’s 81 point performance was not perfect. In fact, he shot 28-46 from the field, and 18-20 from the free throw line. Kobe made 7 out of 13 three’s and took just over half of his team’s shots during the game (46-88).

There are several things that could have gone differently during this game that would have resulted in a 100 point performance. First, if Kobe had made every shot he took, he would have scored 125 points (18 additional points from three’s, 24 additional points from two-point field goals and 2 additional points from free throws). Obviously, Kobe will never put on a performance this perfect in his career. But just look at the numbers for a second. Based on the shots Kobe took during his 81 point game, he could have scored a possible 125 points. He would need to get 80% of those points in order to score 100. That would be quite a feat, but is it impossible? Maybe. Maybe not.

Also consider the fact that Kobe only took 52% of the Lakers' shots. What if the Lakers' game plan involved Kobe putting the ball up 75% of the time? That would mean 20 more shots, which results in 66 total shots for Kobe. Even if all of those extra shots were two point field goals, Kobe would have a total of 165 possible points. If he were to score just 60% of those points, he would have a 100 point game.

Kobe’s 81 point performance was nowhere near perfect. Also, the Lakers’ game plan likely did not involve Kobe shooting the ball any more than it usually does. I think Kobe could find a way to score 20 more points than he did during his 81 point game at some point in his career, allowing him to break Wilt’s 100 point record.

Adam Primm:
There is no way Wilt Chamberlain’s record of 100 points in a game will ever be broken. This is one of those records that will never be broken, like Joe Dimaggio's 56 game hitting streak. I feel this way for a variety of reasons. First of all, Wilt was absolutely dominant; no one could stop him. As awesome as the 100 point game was, let’s not forget that Chamberlain averaged 50.4 points per game in the 1961-1962 season (he scored 100 on March2, 1962). Wilt scoring 100 in a game that season is like Kobe scoring 60 in a game this season; both players would be doubling their averages. Also consider that Wilt set records for field goals made (36), attempted (63), free throws made (28), most points in a quarter (31), and most points in a half (59). This was easily the most dominant offensive performance ever in the history of the NBA and the circumstances had to fall just right for this type of game to happen.

One of those circumstances was the more up-tempo style of game in the early 1960s. The 1961-1962 season which saw Wilt average 50.4 points and 26 rebounds per game and Oscar Robertson average 30.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 11.4 assists per game was much different from the game today. In 1961-1962, teams averaged 125.5 possessions per game and 108 shots per game. In contrast, the 2008-2009 season has teams averaging 91.2 possessions per game and 80.2 shots per game. The significantly slower pace greatly hinders anyone from making a run at Wilt’s record of 100 points in a game. When Kobe scored 81 against the Raptors in January of 2006, the Lakers took 88 shots and the Raptors took only 76. Compare that to the Warriors and Knicks in Wilt’s 100 point game when the Warriors took 115 and the Knicks took 118. The Warriors also attempted 52 free throws and the Knicks took 41. By comparison, the Lakers attempted 33 and the Raptors 27. Wilt took 32 by himself in 1962.

Part of the reason for the high number of free throws was the mess that the Warriors and Knicks made of the fourth quarter. Wilt had 69 points at the start of the quarter and the Warriors approach was to feed Wilt every time down court. As Wilt was approaching 100 points, the Knicks began fouling the other 4 Warriors simply to prevent Wilt from scoring more. The Warriors responded by fouling the Knicks right away so they could get the ball back sooner. The final score of the game was 169-147, partially due to the quick pace of the game back then, but also due to the abnormal fourth quarter in which the score was 44-41, Warriors (the score in the second half was 90-79 Warriors). In today’s defensive game, final scores don’t total 169 points let alone the second half.

While I agree with Chris that Kobe has the best chance of coming close to scoring 100 points, there are many differences between his game and Wilt’s. Wilt played in the post and Kobe is a wing. That alone is a strike against Kobe. While Kobe can hit a three, Wilt’s shots were all within 10 feet of the hoop. Also, at 7’1” and 275-300 pounds, Wilt was the most physically imposing player in the NBA. To make matter worse for the Knicks, their starting center, Phil Jordan, was hurt and didn’t play. Second-year man Darrall Imhoff had the task of guarding Wilt who had 3 inches and 55-80 pounds on him. The Knicks' next biggest player was Cleveland Buckner at 6’9” and 210 pounds. The other two players who spent a good portion of the night trying to stop Chamberlain were both 6’6” and weighed 205 and 225 pounds, respectively. They had no chance at stopping Wilt as they were totally overmatched physically. Imhoff later stated that Wilt “stuffed us through the hoop with the ball. It didn’t even help we quintuple-teamed him.” The Knicks tried everything short of putting a 6th man on the court or unleashing Jeff Van Gundy to wrap himself around Wilt’s ankle while he posted up. Kobe is good, but he isn’t that good. If Kobe is triple-teamed, let alone quintuple-teamed, he isn’t shooting over 57% from the field like Wilt did. This is true for a few reasons.

First, the NBA today is so much more flexible in terms of defense. If Kobe starts making a serious run at 100 points, the opposition will shift to a zone defense that neutralizes the amount and kinds of touches Kobe is going to get. Second, since no team wants to give up 100 points, the opposition will do exactly what the Knicks did and start fouling other players simply so Kobe can’t score more points. While I think this is a bush league move, it will probably happen, and I don’t see Phil Jackson telling his team to foul back so Kobe can get more shots. That type of back and forth hack-fest could lead to a fight in today’s game and I think the coaches would rather avoid that. Third, Kobe’s quickness and talent simply can’t equal Wilt’s imposing physical stature. A bad night for Wilt that year would have been 30 points and 15 boards. That is absurd. It was arguably the most dominant game of the most dominant season ever. To say that Kobe could feasibly match or beat that record greatly underestimates what Wilt did that night. Teams are more suited to adjust their defenses to stop a wing player that gets hot than they are to stop a dominant big man. If a wing gets hot, you can play him physical, double-team him, switch to zone, or foul the other players like the Knicks tried in 1962. When Wilt got hot, the Knicks were quintuple-teaming him, fouling him (he had the best free throw shooting day of his career), and fouling his teammates. None of the tactics worked, Wilt was too big and strong around the hoop for the Knicks to be able to stop him. At his size, he was able to fight through these tactics. If Kobe gets quadruple or quintuple-teamed, he is not big enough to fight through and is more likely to pass out of it anyway.

Finally, the numbers don’t support the argument that Kobe can score 100 points. With teams averaging 35 fewer possessions in today’s game, there aren’t nearly as many offensive opportunities for Kobe as there was for Wilt. And even with the Warriors feeding Wilt so he could score 100 points, he still only took 54.8% (63-115) of the Warriors shots that night. By comparison, Kobe took 52.3% of the Lakers' shots when he scored 81. It isn’t an issue of getting Kobe more shots, it is an issue of speeding up the pace of the game so there are more shots in general. Finally, Kobe’s 81 point performance is the closest anyone has come to Wilt’s 100. If you look at this closer, you will see that the closest is still only 81% of the total. Despite scoring over 80, Kobe still needed another full quarter at his current pace to match Wilt.

The last reason that Wilt’s record will not be broken is because the Knicks didn’t see anything out of the ordinary with Wilt having 41 points at halftime. Wilt stated that he routinely had halves of 30 or 35 points and had scored over 60 points in a game on 32 previous occasions, so the Knicks did not see a need to adjust to him at halftime. However, if anyone scored 41 points in a half in today’s game, you can guarantee the entire conversation at halftime is how to stop that one player. When Wilt scored 100, it was the perfect storm of a physically dominant player against a team shorthanded by injury. Aiding the abnormalities was the up tempo pace of the game, the ridiculousness of the 4th quarter, and the “sneaky” aspect of Chamberlain “quietly” scoring 41 points in the first half. This presents too many factors that would have to fall perfectly for Kobe or anyone else to make a run at the record. Even if all of these things happened, Kobe would still have to shoot close to 60% and fight through the different defenses that the opposition would throw at him to make a run at the record. It is too much to overcome.

Above the Rim: Injuries Continue to Impact the Season and a Head-Scratching Trade

It seems that every week I am writing about another key player getting injured. There are more this week as Jameer Nelson, Elton Brand, and numerous Milwaukee Bucks all went down. Also, the Lakers and Bobcats made a peculiar trade that seems to be the opposite of what each team would have been expected to do. In a playoff push, I thought the Lakers would look to add a veteran, not young, undeveloped talent, and the Bobcats don't have much use for a skilled big man who can score off the bench.

Jameer Nelson- Nelson has been the spark to the Magic’s offense this season. The Magic’s frontcourt of Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard get a lot of attention, but Nelson is the key to their success. Nelson is the only ballhandler on the team. With his torn right labrum, he may be out for the rest of the season, and the Magic will miss more than his 16.7 points, 5.4 assists, and his incredibly accurate shooting (50.3% from the floor, 45.3% from 3, and 88.7% from the free throw line). The Magic only had one true point guard on the roster backing Nelson up in veteran Anthony Johnson. While Johnson scored 25 points in his first start in place of Nelson, he won’t keep that up for longer than a few games, as shown by his fall back to Earth with 8 points in his second start and 6 points last night against New Jersey. Johnson did contribute 18 rebounds and 4 steals in those three games, but he only had 8 assists, which is pretty low for a point guard that is passing to three frontcourt players averaging over 17 points per game each. While Johnson could be adequate in place of Nelson, he is averaging only 5.6 points and 2.9 assists per game for his career, and I would expect him to continue that sort of production despite the 25 point outburst earlier this week.
The Magic traded Keith Bogans to the Bucks for point guard Tyronn Lue to back up Johnson, but he was only averaging 4.7 points and 1.5 assists off the bench in Milwaukee. In his first game with Orlando, Lue contributed all of 2 minutes and 6 seconds, hitting 2 free throws. Lue will be a back up to spell Johnson and insurance in case something happens, but I wouldn’t expect either one to merit a pick-up in your fantasy league.
I expect players like Courtney Lee and Mickael Pietrus to benefit the most from the available minutes and shots. Pietrus is averging 11.8 points on 46.3% shooting, including a respectable 35.2% on threes. Against New Jersey last night, he scored 17 points, including 4 threes. Lee on the other hand is a back-up guard averaging 7.2 points this season. He scored 21 in the first game without Nelson, but then fell to 8 and 3. I realize that this is very similar to what Anthony Johnson did when Nelson went down, but Lee is much more dynamic on offense and is quicker with the ability to penetrate and shoot. He might be worth keeping an eye on and picking up if he starts to get hot.

Elton Brand- Brand is the most consistent player in the league-- when he is on the court. A sure 20 point, 10 rebound player when healthy, Brand has played in only 29 games (out of 49) this season after playing in just 8 last season. Although he was only averaging 13.8 points and 8.8 rebounds, he may have been feeling the effects of the torn ACL that caused him to miss so many games last season. However, with a right shoulder injury, Brand is again out for the season meaning that this season and last season will see him play in 37 of 164 possible games. With Brand out, Thaddeus Young will help the Sixers down low as they try to keep a hold on a playoff spot in the East. Young, a second year player out of Georgia Tech, has followed up a solid rookie season (8.2 points and 4.2 assists while shooting 53.9%) with increased numbers this season. Young is averaging 13.5 points and 5 rebounds although his shooting has dipped to 47.8%. Young will have to increase his rebounding to help replace Brand’s 8.8 per game along with Samuel Dalembert (8.6) and Andre Iguodala (6.1). Both Iguodala and Young may be playing out of position for the rest of the season, but both have the athleticism to adjust and produce. Ideally, they would both be playing wings with Iguodala at the 2 and Young at the 3, but in the East, where most posts are smaller as opposed to the giants in the West, the Sixers should be able to play at about the same level as they have this season and make the playoffs.
One player to look at for the rest of the season is shooting guard Willie Green. He was probably headed to the bench when Brand returned from an earlier injury, but will now stay in the starting backcourt next to Andre Miller. Green’s scoring is down to 8.5 points per game this season from 12.5 last year, but this is due to fewer shots as his shooting percentage has improved from 43.6% to 44.5%. Green should be able to average close to 10 points for the rest of the season and could be a solid pick-up.

Milwaukee Bucks- Milwaukee is only a game out of the playoffs despite losing Michael Redd for the season and Andrew Bogut for eight weeks because of injuries. Their replacements in the starting lineup are Charlie Bell and Francisco Elson, respectively. Ramon Sessions initially stepped in for Redd, but when Luke Ridnour broke his thumb, Sessions slid over to point guard and Bell is now the 2. In his first 5 starts, Sessions scored between 16 and 20 points four times and had 8 in the fifth game before torching the Pistons for 44 along with 12 assists. Sessions also contributed games of 6, 6, and 7 assists just prior to the Pistons game. On the season, Sessions has averaged 11.4 points and 4.5 assists and those numbers should improve with his increased playing time and the injuries making him the third option on offense after Richard Jefferson and Charlie Villanueva. Bell has been a solid player for the Bucks this year, averaging 6.8 points off the bench. Bell’s real value comes on defense, but the last time he received playing time as a starter, in 2006-2007, he averaged 13.5 points per game. Bell could push his average up into double figures while Ridnour is out for the next month or so. Sessions is worth picking up for the rest of the season.
Down low, even though Elson is the new starter, I expect Villanueva to increase his value the most as a result of the injury to Bogut. Villanueva was getting hot just before the injury and should get more rebounding opportunities with Bogut 10+ rebounds per game out of the lineup. Villanueva may miss Bogut’s passing ability, but he should also see an increase in touches because Bogut was averaging 9 shots per game and Villanueva is the next best option in the post. Villanueva scored 33 points against Detroit last week following up his monstrous January in which he averaged 20 points and 7 rebounds. Villanueva’s production was improving throughout the month and could continue to climb with his increased opportunities. Elson on the other hand was only averaging 2.8 points and 3.2 rebounds when Bogut went down. In four starts since the injury, he has only 12 points although he has contributed 29 rebounds (just over 7 per game). Elson’s production is probably going to be limited to rebounding and occasionally a few points. I would expect Ben Wallace type production from him.
With these injuries and the Bucks depth at the 3 (Jefferson, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Joe Alexander), the Bucks may explore putting Villanueva at center and playing with two 3s at times given how well Mbah a Moute has played this year. The rookie is averaging 7.2 points and 5.9 rebounds and has been a very effective defender. Joe Alexander would give the Bucks depth off the bench, if Coach Scott Skiles decides to play a small lineup for the rest of the season. Alexander is averaging only 4.4 points and 2 rebounds per game this season, but a gradual increase in minutes could lead him to play like he did at West Virginia when he was routinely the best player on the court, a player with good size that could also step back and hit jump shots with the best shooters in the Big East.

Lakers-Bobcats Trade- I was scratching my head at this one until I watched the Cavs-Lakers game this afternoon and the announcers said it was probably a salary cap move designed to allow the Lakers to resign Lamar Odom at season’s end. Vladimir Radmanovic had been a solid shooter and bench player for the Lakers and I expected them to go to him more often with Andrew Bynum injured. He had provided an outside threat from the 4 position as well as rebounding off the bench. In return, the Lakers receive two underachieving former first round picks. Adam Morrison was one of my favorite players in college and I would like to see him do well, but he has yet to shoot 40% from the floor in his career and missed all of last season with a knee injury. If he can find the talent that made him a co-player of the year in college, this could be a steal for the Lakers. Imagine Bynum and Pau Gasol down low with Kobe and Adam Morrison circa his Gonzaga years on the wings. That team could score 120 a night. Right now, I don’t see Morrison getting significant, if any, minutes. He didn’t play against Cleveland today despite the Lakers losing two big men (Bynum and Radmanovic) recently.
Shannon Brown is another interesting pick-up. A former McDonald’s All-American, Brown has struggled for consistency since coming into the league. Brown would enter in mop up duty and absolutely dominate at times and even had a stretch in Cleveland a few years back where he was averaging double figures while replacing an injured starter. In this, his third season, Brown is finally shooting above 40% (45.5%), but he was only playing 11 minutes per game for Larry Brown’s Bobcats. It appears the Lakers had an eye on the salary cap when they made this trade, because there doesn’t appear to be much room or time to devote to developing the potential of these previously highly touted players. This trade hurt their fantasy value much more than it helped. In Charlotte, they had a chance at playing time, but in LA, they may be the Lakers practice squad.
Radmanovic in Charlotte is interesting to me because Brown is assembling a team of role players without a go-to-guy. Gerald Wallace (currently injured) may score around 20 per game, but that is more due to a lack of a true scoring threat than him being a number 1 threat. Radmanovic, Raja Bell, and Boris Diaw are all starting now and the one thing in common for all of them is that they used to be effective role players on Western Conference powerhouses. The only other players on Charlotte with the ability to score are point guards Raymond Felton and D.J. Augustin, and center Emeka Okafor. Okafor is probably never going to score over 15 per game, and there aren’t many successful offenses that expect the point guards to carry the offensive load. Nonetheless, this may all be a good sign for Radmanovic owners. With no other scorers on the Bobcats, Vlad should get a lot of shots and rebounding opportunities. He could be like a poor man’s Trukoglu, playing the 3 at 6’10”. Radmanovic could average 13-15 points with 6 rebounds for the rest of the season. He should be worth a look in most fantasy leagues.

Above the Rim: Another Big Injury and Hot Young Post Players

On January 31st, the Lakers picked up another win in a run away against Memphis. This game was different than other recent laughers for the Lakers as star center Andrew Bynum hurt his right knee. The Lakers are very deep down low, but they will miss Bynum’s shot blocking and power on the block as the rest of the forwards (Pau Gasol, Luke Walton, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Lamar Odom) are finesse players.

Walton- Walton has been starting at the small forward spot for the Lakers lately, but he is only playing 13 minutes a game. However, with Gasol sliding over to center in place of Bynum, Walton’s main back-ups, Radmanovic and Odom, will be splitting time at power forward now as well. That should free up more time on the court for Walton. In his limited playing time this season, Walton is averaging 4 points, 2 rebounds and 2 assists. I have always felt that Walton is one of the more skilled and all around forwards in the league, and I think that he can average around 12-5-5 with consistent playing time. While those numbers may be out of reach because of the Lakers depth, watch Walton closely to see if his playing time and numbers increase. If he has a good week, around 7-8 points and 3-4 assists and rebounds, look to pick him up until Bynum gets back.

Trevor Ariza- Ariza will become the main back-up at small forward with Bynum out and the rest of the forwards shifting to center and power forward. Ariza is averaging 24 minutes a game, 11 more than starter Walton has been this season. In those 24 minutes, Ariza has been very productive scoring 9 points to go with 4.8 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1.6 steals. Ariza also contributes a solid 47.3% shooting percentage. With increased playing time, probably still coming off the bench, look for Ariza to approach 12-13 points and 6 rebounds. Ariza is very athletic and versatile, and more minutes will allow him to showcase his talents even more; he could probably start on at least half the teams in the NBA.

Radmanovic- Vladimir is another back-up post player that should benefit with increased playing time. Vlad was sharing time with Ariza and Odom coming off the bench, but now those players don’t have to share minutes with Gasol. Radmanovic was already averaging 6.2 points and 2.6 rebounds in 17 minutes, and those numbers will increase with Bynum’s injury. Rasmanovic might experience the biggest jump of all these players as he is the only one that’s game revolves around shooting and not versatility and athleticism. Radmanovic is shooting 45% from the floor and 44.7% from the three point line this season, but with more playing time, Vlad will be able to get into more of a rhythm. He could double his scoring average up about 12 points per game if he gets on a roll. However, if Radmanovic does not take advantage of this playing time, he doesn’t contribute much in terms of rebounding or blocked shots despite being 6’10”. If Vlad’s shooting lets him down, don’t waste time with him in your lineup as he won’t be able to make up for it in other categories.

Odom- I have always felt that Odom deserves to start for someone because I see him as a player that could average 15 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists from either forward spot with more playing time. We’ll see if Odom can do it while Bynum is out. In 26 minutes off the bench as the Lakers top sub, Odom is averaging 9.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and over 1 steal and block. Odom can fill up the stat sheet on any night, and as the starter at power forward, he should be able to keep that up. Odom is also shooting 48.9% from the floor and above 35% from the three point line, so his efficiency has been high this year as well. While Odom has only made one start this season, last season, he averaged 14.2 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block per start while shooting 52.5%. Odom has shown that he can be extremely productive with more consistent playing time, and I would look for him to dramatically increase his production with Bynum out.

Around the League
Two young post players are making waves as their production has improved recently. Charlie Villanueva and Joakim Noah have both been playing their best ball of the season. Villanueva is finally becoming the star it looked like he would be as a high school star in New Jersey and at UConn. Noah is finally putting his aggressiveness and energy together with his skills and the result is more consistent shooting and rebounding.

Villanueva- After averaging about 12 points and 6 rebounds for his career, Charlie has improved to 15.2 and 6.6 this season, but that only tells part of the story. In 19 starts, Villanueva is averaging 17 points and 8.2 rebounds per game on 45.7% shooting, including 40.4% on threes and 89.9% on free throws. In 18 games in January, including 10 starts, Villanueva is at 20.2 points and 7 rebounds while shooting 51.7% from the floor, 44.1% from three point range, and 86.1% from the free throw line. Eleven of those 18 games have been 20 point games including a season high of 32 against Dallas. Villanueva has also contributed 5 double-doubles in that time period. Villanueva should be able to continue this production, or comparable production (17 points and 7-8 rebounds) for the rest of the season.

Noah- Noah has been starting since January 14th, and while his stats don’t change that much from starting to coming off the bench (5.1 points and 6.3 rebounds for both), he has been hot recently, maybe a sign that he will be increasing his production for the rest of the season. In his last 7 games, Noah has been shooting 61.4%. This percentage is not the product of limited chances either as Noah has been averaging 8.7 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks over this stretch. With the exception of one game in which Noah had 3 rebounds and took zero shots, he is averaging 10.2 points and 10.2 rebounds with 3.2 blocks per game in the remaining 6 games. These games have included a 17 point game and three games in which Noah scored at least 10, an 18 rebound game and three games of 10 or more rebounds, and an 8 block game. Keep an eye on Noah because he may become a very productive big man for the rest of the season.