Monday, March 2, 2009

Above the Rim: Star Watch

This past week saw Stephon Marbury finally appearing in a game, Carlos Boozer returning from an injury, and Tracy McGrady shutting it down for the season with an injury to his left knee. I recommended picking up Marbury months ago amid rumors that he was heading to the Celtics, and he finally made it, just in time to be eligible for the Celtics’ playoff roster (and to make me look smart and less like an idiot for my earlier recommendation). Boozer will also be able to help the Jazz make a playoff run. On the other hand, the Rockets will be missing McGrady down the stretch, the second straight season one of their stars will be out for the stretch run (Yao Ming was out down the stretch last season). Ron Artest has filled in admirably and may actually be an upgrade at this point of their careers.

Marbury- Marbury will fill the role of the primary guard off the bench for the Celtics and allows Eddie House to move to shooting guard when he plays, which is a more natural fit for him. The Celtics used veteran pickups Sam Cassel and PJ Brown down the stretch last year to make a run to the championship and are looking for Marbury to be that boost this year. In his first game in green, Marbury scored 8 points on 4 of 6 shooting in just over 12 minutes. He also contributed 2 assists and 1 steal. Marbury also committed 3 turnovers. On Sunday’s game with the Pistons, Marbury was held scoreless in 12 minutes on 0 for 3 shooting. Marbury added 3 assists against 2 turnovers. Marbury could be a very valuable pickup for the Celtics if he can keep himself under control and his emotions in check. Pick him up now, because when he shakes the rust off his game, he should be a solid contributor for the rest of the season. Veterans like Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce should be able to keep him in control so he can focus on producing on the court. Marbury is also a free agent at the end of the year, and needs to show he can still play to earn a solid offer in the offseason.

Boozer- Carols Boozer returned to the Jazz on February 23rd and has started all 4 games since returning. Boozer has been very rusty since coming back. Boozer’s Sunday performance of 10 points and 9 rebounds was the closest he came to a double-double since returning (2 and 5, 12 and 4, and 6 and 5, respectively, in the previous 3 games). When healthy, Boozer is a walking double-double, but he has only played over 20 minutes twice in four games since coming back, and he only played 21 and 22 minutes in those games. Boozer’s return gives the Jazz one of the deepest frontcourts in the NBA joining Memhet Okur in the starting lineup with Paul Millsap and Andrei Kirilenko coming off the bench. Boozer was averaging over 20 and 10 before his injury. He should be able to approach those numbers when he is able to play extended minutes. Boozer, like Marbury, will be a free agent at the end of the season and is playing for a new contract. He will be looking to prove that he is healthy and productive. Boozer, like Marbury, has many factors motivating him for the rest of the season. Look for Boozer to produce for the rest of the season as the Jazz get ready for the playoffs.

McGrady- With T-Mac out, a few Rockets have stepped up to fill the void. Ron Artest has been the biggest contributor. Already the Rockets second leading scorer this season after Yao Ming, Artest has been starting since February 11th. Since he re-entered the starting lineup, Artest is averaging 21.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 1.8 steals in 8 games. Despite being 6’7” and over 260 pounds, Artest has been starting at the shooting guard spot for the Rockets. His quickness on the perimeter and his tenacity on defense enable him to play the off-guard. Offensively, Artest has the shooting range to space the floor and contribute on the offensive end. Artest is shooting 56% from the floor in those 8 games including 51% from 3-point range. During the Cavs-Rockets games last week, Ron claimed that LeBron James reminded him of the new and improved Ron Artest, which led Reggie Miller and the TNT broadcast team to poke fun at the fact that Artest thinks he is the best player in the league. This type of production coupled with his suffocating defense (LeBron was held to 7-21 shooting and 0 assists for the first time in his career) makes me think that Artest will be at least one of the best players in the league down the stretch. On top of that, Ron has been well behaved this year and is playing for a new contract, like Marbury and Boozer. Artest should be extremely productive across the stat sheet for the rest of the season.
Von Wafer should also see increased minutes as the primary backup for Artest. If the Rockets go with a small lineup and play Artest at the SF or PF position, or if Artest needs a breather, Wafer will pick up those minutes. Averaging 9.8 points per game off the bench this season, Wafer has scored in double figures in 4 of his last 7 games (19, 19, 13, and 11) and added 9 in a fifth game. When he gets hot, Wafer can hit three pointers with the best in the league, as shown by his 41.5% shooting from behind the line this year, but Wafer can also be streaky. In the last 7 games, Wafer combined for 3 points on 1 of 10 shooting in the other 2 games in his last 7. Wafer can be a very effective scorer off the bench, but be careful. If Wafer gets cold, he will not contribute much because he is limited to points and three pointers in terms of fantasy value.

Trade Deadline Fallout
At the trade deadline, I wrote about the effect that Rafer Alston should have on the Magic for the rest of the season, and did not address the effect on the Rockets. Apparently, the Rockets had an ace up their sleeve when they made the trade because Aaron Brooks has stepped up and been a solid contributor for the Rockets since the trade. Brooks is averaging 10.4 points and 2.9 assists on the season, but his numbers in 6 starts since Alston was traded show that he is capable of more. Brooks is averaging 13.2 points, 4 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.2 steals with less than 2 turnovers per game. On Sunday, Brooks had 22 points, 10 assists, and 4 rebounds in the Rockets win over the Timberwolves. On the season, Brooks has made 12 starts averaging 12.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists. Even if Brooks’s numbers revert to his normal starting statistics, he will still be a solid fantasy play for the rest of the season. I would look for Brooks to stay closer to the 13-4-6 split as opposed to the 12-4-4 for his previous starts this season. With the consistent playing time and rotation, Brooks should be able to produce at the higher level for the rest of the season.




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