Above the Rim: Star Watch

This past week saw Stephon Marbury finally appearing in a game, Carlos Boozer returning from an injury, and Tracy McGrady shutting it down for the season with an injury to his left knee. I recommended picking up Marbury months ago amid rumors that he was heading to the Celtics, and he finally made it, just in time to be eligible for the Celtics’ playoff roster (and to make me look smart and less like an idiot for my earlier recommendation). Boozer will also be able to help the Jazz make a playoff run. On the other hand, the Rockets will be missing McGrady down the stretch, the second straight season one of their stars will be out for the stretch run (Yao Ming was out down the stretch last season). Ron Artest has filled in admirably and may actually be an upgrade at this point of their careers.

Marbury- Marbury will fill the role of the primary guard off the bench for the Celtics and allows Eddie House to move to shooting guard when he plays, which is a more natural fit for him. The Celtics used veteran pickups Sam Cassel and PJ Brown down the stretch last year to make a run to the championship and are looking for Marbury to be that boost this year. In his first game in green, Marbury scored 8 points on 4 of 6 shooting in just over 12 minutes. He also contributed 2 assists and 1 steal. Marbury also committed 3 turnovers. On Sunday’s game with the Pistons, Marbury was held scoreless in 12 minutes on 0 for 3 shooting. Marbury added 3 assists against 2 turnovers. Marbury could be a very valuable pickup for the Celtics if he can keep himself under control and his emotions in check. Pick him up now, because when he shakes the rust off his game, he should be a solid contributor for the rest of the season. Veterans like Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce should be able to keep him in control so he can focus on producing on the court. Marbury is also a free agent at the end of the year, and needs to show he can still play to earn a solid offer in the offseason.

Boozer- Carols Boozer returned to the Jazz on February 23rd and has started all 4 games since returning. Boozer has been very rusty since coming back. Boozer’s Sunday performance of 10 points and 9 rebounds was the closest he came to a double-double since returning (2 and 5, 12 and 4, and 6 and 5, respectively, in the previous 3 games). When healthy, Boozer is a walking double-double, but he has only played over 20 minutes twice in four games since coming back, and he only played 21 and 22 minutes in those games. Boozer’s return gives the Jazz one of the deepest frontcourts in the NBA joining Memhet Okur in the starting lineup with Paul Millsap and Andrei Kirilenko coming off the bench. Boozer was averaging over 20 and 10 before his injury. He should be able to approach those numbers when he is able to play extended minutes. Boozer, like Marbury, will be a free agent at the end of the season and is playing for a new contract. He will be looking to prove that he is healthy and productive. Boozer, like Marbury, has many factors motivating him for the rest of the season. Look for Boozer to produce for the rest of the season as the Jazz get ready for the playoffs.

McGrady- With T-Mac out, a few Rockets have stepped up to fill the void. Ron Artest has been the biggest contributor. Already the Rockets second leading scorer this season after Yao Ming, Artest has been starting since February 11th. Since he re-entered the starting lineup, Artest is averaging 21.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 1.8 steals in 8 games. Despite being 6’7” and over 260 pounds, Artest has been starting at the shooting guard spot for the Rockets. His quickness on the perimeter and his tenacity on defense enable him to play the off-guard. Offensively, Artest has the shooting range to space the floor and contribute on the offensive end. Artest is shooting 56% from the floor in those 8 games including 51% from 3-point range. During the Cavs-Rockets games last week, Ron claimed that LeBron James reminded him of the new and improved Ron Artest, which led Reggie Miller and the TNT broadcast team to poke fun at the fact that Artest thinks he is the best player in the league. This type of production coupled with his suffocating defense (LeBron was held to 7-21 shooting and 0 assists for the first time in his career) makes me think that Artest will be at least one of the best players in the league down the stretch. On top of that, Ron has been well behaved this year and is playing for a new contract, like Marbury and Boozer. Artest should be extremely productive across the stat sheet for the rest of the season.
Von Wafer should also see increased minutes as the primary backup for Artest. If the Rockets go with a small lineup and play Artest at the SF or PF position, or if Artest needs a breather, Wafer will pick up those minutes. Averaging 9.8 points per game off the bench this season, Wafer has scored in double figures in 4 of his last 7 games (19, 19, 13, and 11) and added 9 in a fifth game. When he gets hot, Wafer can hit three pointers with the best in the league, as shown by his 41.5% shooting from behind the line this year, but Wafer can also be streaky. In the last 7 games, Wafer combined for 3 points on 1 of 10 shooting in the other 2 games in his last 7. Wafer can be a very effective scorer off the bench, but be careful. If Wafer gets cold, he will not contribute much because he is limited to points and three pointers in terms of fantasy value.

Trade Deadline Fallout
At the trade deadline, I wrote about the effect that Rafer Alston should have on the Magic for the rest of the season, and did not address the effect on the Rockets. Apparently, the Rockets had an ace up their sleeve when they made the trade because Aaron Brooks has stepped up and been a solid contributor for the Rockets since the trade. Brooks is averaging 10.4 points and 2.9 assists on the season, but his numbers in 6 starts since Alston was traded show that he is capable of more. Brooks is averaging 13.2 points, 4 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.2 steals with less than 2 turnovers per game. On Sunday, Brooks had 22 points, 10 assists, and 4 rebounds in the Rockets win over the Timberwolves. On the season, Brooks has made 12 starts averaging 12.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists. Even if Brooks’s numbers revert to his normal starting statistics, he will still be a solid fantasy play for the rest of the season. I would look for Brooks to stay closer to the 13-4-6 split as opposed to the 12-4-4 for his previous starts this season. With the consistent playing time and rotation, Brooks should be able to produce at the higher level for the rest of the season.

Above the Rim: Tito's Worth Trying

Charles Barkley described the Miami Heat and Dwayne Wade as Michael Jackson and a bunch of Tito’s last week. I decided to look at the Heat roster and decide whether to kick the tires on some members of the Jackson Five.

Tito Jackson’s
Chris Quinn- Quinn, the backup point guard, is having a solid season, but it is pretty accurate to describe him as Tito. Averaging 7.1 points and 2.5 assists this season, Quinn’s best statistics are his 93.8% free throw percentage and 46.9% three point shooting. Quinn might be worth picking up in a deep twelve team league, mostly because of his high percentages. But valuing Quinn for his high percentages is a lot like valuing Tito for the three backup lines he sings in “ABC.”

Daequan Cook- Cook is averaging 8.9 points this year, but the statistic is somewhat misleading. Shooting just 35.8% from to floor and 35% from three, Cook’s average is more a result of his high volume of shots than his proficiency at making them. Cook’s 33% shooting percentage can only be described as “Bad.”

“Don’t Stop ‘Til You Get Enough”
It is way too early to label these two rookies, especially with the numbers they are putting up in just 20 games.

Michael Beasley- Beasley is averaging 14.5 points and 5.3 rebounds this season, second and third on the team, respectively. Tito would have been thrilled to perform this well. Beasley has not disappointed since being the #2 pick in the draft, and if he is somehow available in your league, you should pick him up now because he will only improve as the season goes on.

Mario Chalmers- Chalmers is averaging 9 points, 4.5 assists, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.1 steals per game. Those are pretty impressive stats across the board for a rookie point guard. Barkley definitely mis-categorized Chalmers as Tito because, like Beasley, Chalmers is already performing at a higher level than Tito and will only get better this season and next.

“You Are Not Alone”
Udonis Haslem- No matter if the Heat are good or bad, Haslem has been there for Wade since their rookie year, a model of consistency. At the same time, Haslem could moonwalk into an alley-oop dunk and still go unnoticed. Haslem is averaging 12.3 points and 9 rebounds this season. The points are a career high, and the rebounds are just short of Haslem’s previous high of 9.1. Haslem is also shooting 53.9% from the floor and over 80% from the free throw line.

“Remember the Time”
Shawn Marion- Do you remember when Marion was a top 10 pick in most fantasy drafts, averaging 19 points, 10 rebounds, 2 steals, and at least 1 block per game for most of his career? Those days appear to be gone for The Matrix, but Marion is still averaging an effective 12.5 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 1.4 blocks. Marion is still one of the more energetic power forwards in the NBA even if his skills have diminished in the last few seasons, and that makes him a valuable counterpart for Wade. To expect him to be an all-star again is unreasonable, but to put him on Tito’s level seems to be quite an exaggeration as well. A better comparison may be to see Marion as a nose-less Michael Jackson that only puts out greatest hits albums.

As for Wade, Michael is a pretty accurate comparison. Let’s just hope his hair doesn’t catch on fire in the pre-game pyrotechnics when the Heat play at home tonight (December 8th) against Charlotte.

Above the Rim: We talkin' bout Practice

In this edition of Above the Rim, we are once again going to look at some players who have a solid fantasy value, yet are still available to a lot of fantasy owners out there. I can sit here and tell you how great Lebron James is, but you have no chance to add him to your team, so we like to focus on players that are free agents in most leagues.

Wilson Chandler, Knicks
Around a month ago we recommended Chandler, and to those of you who followed suite, you have found yourself a stud. Wilson is getting around 30 minutes a game and is chipping in 15 points, a steal, a block, and a 3 in that time. I would like to see his FG percent rise, but there is no reason he should only be owned inn 50% of the leagues. You still have time to jump on this bandwagon and we are once again recommending that you hop aboard.

Chris Duhon, Knicks
22. That’s the New York Knick record for assists in a game and that record now belongs to Chris Duhon. Stop reading the article now and go add him to your team. He is also available in 50% of the leagues out there and that is a crime. Chris is getting 40 minutes a game and that number might even go up with the lack of available guards on the Knick roster. So far this season, Duhon is getting 11 points and 8 assists a game. He also chips in a steal and 3 pointer, but like Chandler, Duhon needs to raise his FG percent. Coach Nelson, after watching Duhon drop 22 assists on his Golden State Warriors, described the guard as a “young Steve Nash”. Nellie’s word is good enough for us and should be good enough for you.

Andrea Bargnani, Raptors
This is my man. I can honestly say I have a man crush on Bargnani’s game, but I have held off recommending him, because of his extremely inconsistent play. That seems to be changing though. He has bumped his minutes per game up to 30 over the last 5 contests, and with Jamario Moon remembering he is Jamario Moon and not a NBA starter, Bargnani looks to capitalize on Moon’s lost minutes. Andrea is only owned 41% of the leagues and his 3 pointer and block a game could really help a lot of fantasy owners out there. Andrea also started at center on Wednesday and his position flexibility is a huge positive.


Notes:

Summer 2009: With all the talk recently about the free agent class of 2010, this years free agent class is getting overlooked. While 2010 will truly be special, this year also has the ability to transform the destiny of many NBA teams. This list includes Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, Rasheed Wallace, Allen Iverson, Jason Kidd, Carlos Boozer, and Ron Artest. That is 3 future hall of famers and 4 other all stars that may be suiting up in a different uniform come opening day 2009.

Iverson: I told you 2 weeks ago that Coach Curry was not going to tell Iverson what to do and what happens? Curry calls a Thanksgiving morning day practice and Iverson says “no thanks coach” and doesn’t even show up. There will be a hefty fine for Allen, but I don’t think he is hurting for cash. Joe Dumars is an amazing GM, but who the hell thought that making a 30-something year old, career back up the Head Coach was going to be a good idea. Rasheed and Allen will both bolt after the season and there is no way that Lebron is signing in Detroit with Michael Curry as the coach.

Above the Rim: Rudy!, Rudy!

This week, Above the Rim will cover a few important points omitted from last week's discussion of the Iverson trade, as well as three players I continue to project big things from in 2008-09 and beyond.

The Detroit "Iversons"

Teams tend to emulate their leaders and I guarantee you that Allan Iverson demands more respect in that locker room than head coach Michael Curry. Curry played with most of these current Pistons and was a reserve with that team, while Iverson is a first ballot HOF and one of the most well respected players in the league. With that said, the Pistons are no longer “your dad’s Pistons”, but rather a more up-tempo, fast paced team. Iverson will push the pace and get players easy shots in transition, as was the case on Friday during the Lakers vs. Pistons game. Rasheed Wallace worked over Gasol and looked like a re-energized player (a combination of the Iverson trade and being in a contract year). He hasn’t looked this fresh since he was a Blazer and Damon Stoudamire was pushing the pace of the game. In Friday’s game, Rasheed dropped 25 points, grabbed 13 boards and blocked 2 shots. The unsung hero of that game was former Laker, Kwame Brown. In 28 minutes of action, Kwame had 10 points and 10 boards. He is currently available in 99% of the leagues on ESPN and recently just replaced scrub, Amir Johnson in the starting line-up. Brown has never lived up to his potential but he is a solid play for the near future.


Rudy Fernandez
Once again, we here at “Above the Rim” would like pat ourselves on the back for being the first ones on the Rudy bandwagon. We were riding this wagon when it was just us and Rudy’s mom. He jumped off our radar during the Olympics when he cocked back on Dwight Howard and has done nothing but impress thus far this season. He is currently playing like a top 25 selection in most leagues and surprisingly is still available to close to 30 percent of you out there. He is still coming off the bench in Portland and is logging close to 29 minutes a game. I would assume that his sixth man role will remain but look for his minutes to increase and this should have a positive effect on his stat line.


Trevor Ariza
With all the talk about a healthy Andrew Bynum, a healthy Trevor Ariza has been just as important to the Lakers early season success Ariza is 6’ 8” with a freakish windspan that he has parleyed into over 2 steals a game. That puts him in the top 10 in steals numbers while still being available to 95% of ESPN owners. The Lakers rely heavily on their bench players and that means job security for Ariza. I think so highly of Ariza’s upside that I have added him personally to most of my teams.

JaVale McGee
JaVale is the first NBA player to be the son of a WNBA player. Pamela McGee, JaVale's mother, played in the WNBA for two seasons in 1998 and 1999. And with the mess that is the Wizard’s front court, JaVale has emerged has the one bright spot. He is an extremely athletic 7 footer who also boasts a 7’ 6” wingspan. JaVale currently is averaging close to 10 points and 6 boards with 1.5 blocks in around 20 minutes a game. He is also available in 97% of the leagues out there so get on the waiver wire and pick him up.

Above the Rim: Waiver Act

The first week of the season is in the books and the Clippers have already packed it in. I still think it is too early to panic over your roster, but there are a few early surprises that deserve a look. I have included a percentage with each player that represents the percentage of owners that have that player currently on their roster on ESPN.com. I have also tried to recommend players that offer a strong fantasy value yet are still available to most of the owners out there.

Travis Outlaw (SF, PF 21.1% owned 13.3 pts, 4 reb, 2.3 ast, 1 stl) is in his 6th NBA season and is only 24 years old. He has increased his PPG each year since being in the league and this year should be no different. His production has been helped by the stress fracture in Martel Webster’s left foot. His multiple positions are also a fantasy plus.

Rudy Fernandez (SG 37.1% owned 14 pts, 3.7 reb, 1.3 ast) is the truth. I have been lucky enough to catch two Portland games this year and Rudy is a younger, more energetic Manu Ginobili. As you can see, Rudy is still available in over 60% of the ESPN leagues, and a smart owner would get on the Rudy wagon before it’s too late. Like Travis Outlaw, Fernandez will benefit in increased minutes as long as Martel Webster remains sidelined.

Raymond Felton (PG 93.4% owned 5.5 pts, 6.5 ast, 0.5 stl) is locked up in most 12 team leagues but Mario Chalmers (PG 42.6% owned 8.7 pts, 6 ast, 2 stl) is still available to over half of the owners out there. It doesn’t look as though Felton is feeling completely comfortable in Larry Brown’s system and we know Larry’s past with other PG’s (ie: Billups, Iverson, Marbury). With that said, Chalmers has looked smooth in Miami and assists should come in bunches as he dishes to Wade and Beasley.

Keleena Azubuike (SG, SF 7.4% owned 13.7 pts, 2.3 ast, 1.0 stl) is a third year pro from Kentucky who has secured his role as the sixth man in Don Nelson’s up-tempo offense. Keleena offers enough ppg to make him viable and his assist and steal numbers are always a bonus. He is owned by barely anyone in ESPN and he provides fantasy owners some flexibility with his multiple positions.

Anthony Carter (PG 6.5% owned 15.0 pts, 4.7 ast, 5 reb, 1.3 stl) won the starting job over J.R. Smith and has produced nicely thus far this season. Carter actually has better numbers than Devin Harris, who is owned in almost 100% of the leagues. I would expect J.R. Smith to work his way back into the starting line-up sometime this season, but Carter is available in almost every league and he would be a nice addition to most rosters.

Two weeks ago, I sang the praises of James Posey (SG, SF 26.8% owned 13 pts, 1.3 ast, 3.7 reb, 1.3 stl) and I am once again going to recommend him to you. He is available in almost 75% of the leagues in ESPN and he is stat filler. Not only is he good for a steal a game, but he averaging over three 3-pointers a game this season and he should see more minutes now that Peja has a bum ankle.

Wilson Chandler (SF 9.9% 14 pts, 6.5 reb) has emerged as an early fantasy sleeper. He showed he could play towards the end of last year and has picked up where he left off. A second year player from Depaul, Wilson should continue to see around 25 minutes a game and is a solid addition to your roster. In the season opener, Wilson had 17 points and 9 rebounds in only 23 minutes of action. I don’t expect that kind of production each night, but it shows the potential he has.

My closing note has to do with Ron Artest. I am already filling out my MVP ballot and Artest is at the top of that list. In the game against Dallas, with the likes of Dirk, Kidd, T-Mac, and Yao on the floor, Ron Artest was clearly the best player in the gym. If he can keep his head in the game, the Rockets have a serious chance of challenging for the West title.

Above the Rim: Finding Sleepers in Your Draft

The key to winning a fantasy league isn’t recognizing the superstars like Lebron and Kobe but rather getting value late in the draft and with in-season pickups. This week’s article is devoted to finding sleeper picks late in the draft.
(Round numbers are based on the round the player was picked in my recent 12 team draft.)

Paul Millsap- round 13
Millsap was the last pick of the draft, player number 156. However, he was a solid contributor for Utah off the bench last year, averaging 8.1 points and 5.6 rebounds in only 20 minutes a game. I expect his playing time to increase this year leading to an increase in production. Millsap also contributed with 5 double-doubles and 4 twenty point games.

Antonio McDyess- round 13
McDyess averaged 8.8 points and 8.5 rebounds per game last year as the Pistons starting PF. If he is the starter this season, look for him to match these numbers. The Pistons have Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson behind him at PF, and one could rise up and take the starting job away. If that happens, look for one of these players to push towards 10-12 points and 8-10 rebounds as a starter.

Daniel Gibson- round 13
Gibson is a good late pick for a league that counts 3-pointers and 3-point percentage for points. Gibson is coming off an injury late in last season, but he should be as good as he was last year (10.4 points and 44% on 3-pointers), and will probably improve. Gibson will be coming off the bench for the Cavs because Coach Mike Brown likes having offense coming off the bench. Gibson is the perfect complimentary shooter for Lebron James and Mo Williams slashing styles.

Rashad McCants- round 12
McCants is the highest scoring sleeper in this article after averaging 14.9 points per game last year. However, because of the Timberwolves trade for Mike Miller, McCants will likely be the team’s 6th man this year. That will probably mean that his scoring average will go down a little. McCants also shoots over 40% on 3-pointers.

Ricky Davis- round 11
Davis is probably the most versatile player on this list. He averaged 13.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists for Miami last year, and the numbers should be similar for the Clippers. Davis will be backing up Al Thornton and Cuttino Mobley on the wings along with rookie Eric Gordon, but Davis was a backup last year as well, so it should not have a drastic effect on his numbers.

Mike Conley- round 11
Conley had a solid rookie year averaging 9.4 points and 4.3 assists for the Grizzlies. This season, Conley will have Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo, Hakim Warrick, Antoine Walker, and Marc Gasol to feed the ball to. While this core is young, it can also be explosive and lead to a lot of assists. Conley should also be able to improve on his scoring average in his second season.

Andres Nocioni- round 11
Nocioni has always been one of my favorite players in the league because of his energy and toughness. However, those are not fantasy stat categories. Nonetheless, Nocioni has value in fantasy leagues due to him averaging 13.2 points and 4.2 rebounds per game last season coming off the bench for Chicago.

Drew Gooden- round 11
Gooden had a good season last year averaging 12 points and 8.6 rebounds, but those numbers increased to 14 points and 9.3 rebounds in the 18 games after his trade to Chicago despite his minutes staying steady. Gooden should be good for at least 13 and 8.5 this season, but I would not be surprised to see him approaching 15 and 10 in a full season with Bulls.

Kirk Hinrich- round 11
Hinrich will be playing shooting guard for the Bulls this year next to number 1 pick Derrick Rose. Hinrich averaged 11.5 points and 6 assists last season, the lowest in both categories for his career. While the assists will probably go down into the 5s with Hinrich focusing on playing shooting guard, his scoring average should return closer to the 15.7-16.6 range that he averaged in the previous 3 seasons.

Jameer Nelson- round 10
Nelson should continue to be a solid PG for the Magic. With players like Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, and recent acquisition Mickael Pietrus, Nelson should be able to improve on his average of 5.6 assists per game from the last season. Nelson’s scoring average last season of 10.9 points is the lowest of his career since he became a starter, and I expect it to increase up to the 12 point range.

Nick Collison, Chris Wilcox- round 10
Collison almost averaged a double-double last season in Seattle with 9.8 points and 9.4 rebounds. While Oklahoma City should be awful this year, Collison is worth a late round pick in a fantasy draft this year.
Wilcox averaged 13.4 points and 7 rebounds per game for Seattle last season. Wilcox has consistently been in this range since he was traded to Seattle 3 seasons ago. Expect more of the same from him. After these two and Kevin Durant, you should avoid OKC like the plague.