Friday, May 29, 2009

First to Third: History in the Making

To be honest, I've said this before. When Greg Maddux won his 300th game, I was pretty confident that there wouldn't be another 300 game winner ever again. Then Tom Glavine won 300. With his 299th career victory on Wednesday, Randy Johnson is going to prove me wrong yet again. This time, however, I mean it when I say soak up Johnson's accomplishment and his longevity. It really won't happen again.

After Johnson, 46 year old Jamie Moyer and his 249 career wins are next. Roy Halladay, a possible candidate has only 139 wins and is 32. According to a recent Sports Illustarated article, he'd need 16 wins a year for the next 10 years to make it. Youngster Tim Lincecum is 25 and has 28 career wins. That means he needs 15 wins a year until he's 43. Impossible? Well, no. Unlikely? A definitive yes.

In the era of keeping pitchers in a crib for most of their early years (see: The Joba Rules), teams are very protective of pitchers and any scraped knee will probably lead to a trip to the DL. It is very difficult to be healthy for long enough to make it to 300 wins. You also need to pitch for a pretty good team for most of your career. Because of these factors, Johnson will be the last 300 game winner (until someone else proves me wrong).

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