Above the Rim: NBA Finals Recap

With the Lakers 5-game defeat of the Magic in the NBA Finals, some long-standing questions have been answered. Kobe Bryant has won a title without Shaquille O'Neal and Phil Jackson has won the 10th title (passing Red Auerbach) that has eluded him since Shaq left LA.

Kobe was himself in this series, one of the best clutch players in the NBA, on his way to winning Finals MVP. Kobe averaged over 32 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists while hitting an array of shots in the series. There was little to find fault with in Kobe's game as the only real blemish in the series was his 7 turnovers in game 2, which the Lakers overcame to win in overtime.

Derek Fisher appeared to find his game just in time to snatch a victory away from the Magic in game 4 by hitting a three with 4.6 seconds left to send the game into overtime and then another to help the Lakers pull away in overtime. Overall, the Finals were Fisher's best series of the playoffs as he averaged 11 points per game and provided defense and veteran leadership.

The play of Pau Gasol, Trevor Ariza, and Lamar Odom, while not overwhelming, was more than enough support for Kobe to enable the Lakers to dominate this series. Gasol was quietly dominate, shooting at least 50% in every game (60% for the series) while averaging 18 points and 9 rebounds including 3 double-doubles. Ariza didn't shoot very well in the series but provided scoring, rebounding, and defense throughout the series to help the Lakers contain the Magic's potentially explosive offense. Odom scored 13 points per game off the bench and provided 2 double-doubles while getting the bulk of the playing time over Andrew Bynum. So much for the sugar crash that was publicized on ESPN for a week leading up to the series.

Jackson's contribution to the series may be overlooked amid all the storylines about Kobe, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson's return, and Fisher's jumper. Jackson's defensive strategy contained a Magic team that repeatedly came back from large deficits against the Cavs in the conference finals. The Magic shot over 33.3% from three-point range just once in the series (35.7% in a game 3 win) after shooting over 40% for the majority of the conference finals. This decrease provided the margin of victory in games 2 and 4, and possibly game 5. If Jackson's strategy did not address this aspect of the Magic's offense, this series could have been a 5-game Magic victory.

Also important to the Lakers victory is the job they did defensively on Dwight Howard. While Howard had a double-double in all five games and just missed a triple-double by one block in game 4, the Lakers held him below his scoring average and forced him into numerous turnovers. Howard scored 20 points just once in the series and was held to 12 and 11 in games 1 and 5, respectively. Also, Howard had 7 turnovers in both games 2 and 4 (both close losses), and his missed free throws late in the fourth quarter of game 4 gave Fisher the opportunity to tie the game with his late three-pointer.

Overall, the Magic were not consistent enough to defeat the Lakers. Rafer Alston was invisible in LA before finding his shot in game 3 in Orlando. Rashard Lewis played well in games 2 and 3, but shot below 30% for the rest of the series. Hedo Turkoglu played well, but with the rest of the team being held below their scoring averages, it wasn't enough. Jameer Nelson's return to the court appeared to have more of an emotional impact then anything, and Mickael Pietrus, like Alston, disappeared for two games. For a team like the Magic to win, they need to hit their perimeter shots, and when they go cold, like they did for most of the Finals, they are very beatable. Howard could not overcome the Lakers' bigs and the hot streaks disappeared enabling the Lakers to a relatively easy Finals victory.

Above the Rim: NBA Finals Preview

Kobe Bryant will lead the Lakers against Superman Dwight Howard and the Magic in the NBA Finals. While the Magic won both regular season matchups, the Lakers will win this matchup for the championship, cementing Kobe’s legacy with his fourth championship and first without Shaquille O’Neal. Kobe’s detractors will finally have to give him his due and Phil Jackson will finally have his tenth title.

Conference Finals
Eastern- Magic in 6 (my pick- Cavaliers in 5)
Western- Lakers in 6 (my pick- Nuggets in 7)

If the Lakers play smart defensively by not double-teaming Dwight Howard down low, they should win this series easily. However, if they insist on double-teaming Howard, the Magic will make them pay by converting wide-open three-pointers, much like they did in defeating Cleveland. The Magic shot over 40% in three of their four wins in the series. The only time they didn’t shot 40%, they hit 39 of 51 free throws to make up for the lack of three pointers. The Lakers should focus on shutting down Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Rafer Alson, and Mickael Pietrus instead of Dwight Howard. If Howard scores 40 points, but the Magic only hit 5 or 6 three pointers, the Lakers will win the game. However, if the Magic can combine a 25-30 point game from Howard with 10 three pointers, the Lakers may lose this series.

Point Guard- Derek Fisher vs. Rafer Alston
Fisher hasn’t had the best playoffs offensively, but he is a veteran with finals experience which will help the Lakers in this series. Alston is a offensive, shooting point guard who had 18 point and 26 point games against the Cavs in games 3 and 4 of the conference finals. Fisher has scored in the double figures in only 3 of his last 13 games, but he is a savvy veteran and will make Alston work.
Advantage- Lakers

Shooting Guard- Kobe Bryant vs. Courtney Lee
Courtney Lee has hit some big shots for the Magic and has played well, but he is out of his league both offensively and defensively against Kobe. Lee has hit double figures just twice since his sinus injury while Kobe has scored under 20 just three times this postseason (and has scored 40+ three times). Kobe can take over a game, and Lee does not have the defensive skills to cover Kobe. Defensively Kobe will shut Lee down and shouldn’t have to exert himself too much to do so. This will allow Kobe to stay fresher during games and be more of a force offensively. At times against the Nuggets, Kobe looked tired and the Lakers needed Pau Gasol to carry the offensive load. This round, Kobe should be able to stay refreshed and take over when he has to.
Advantage- Lakers

Small Forward- Trevor Ariza vs. Hedo Turkoglu
Ariza is a shut down defender that has come on in the playoffs. He has sealed numerous games with his defense so far and provides enough offense to punish teams for not paying attention to him defensively. Turkoglu is a good player, but highly inconsistent. He can both score and pass, but has limited agility and could struggle with someone like Ariza guarding him. In the conference finals, Turkoglu struggled when LeBron, another lengthy, agile defender, was guarding him, so expect more of the same with Ariza matched up on Hedo.
Advantage- Lakers

Power Forward- Lamar Odom vs. Rashard Lewis
While Odom may not start for the Lakers, he is going to see the majority of minutes at the 4 because he presents the best matchup defensively on Lewis, a quick, athletic power forward with 3-point shooting range. Odom has the quickness and size to matchup on Lewis, something the Cavs lacked when LeBron was on Turkoglu. The Lakers have a better mix of athletic big men than the Cavs and should be able to matchup better defensively. Odom may also be able to score fairly routinely against Lewis as neither player is known for their defensive prowess. If Odom can score 2 points for every 3 points Lewis scores, the Lakers have to feel like that is a win because Kobe will make that up against Lee.
Advantage- Magic

Center- Pau Gasol vs. Dwight Howard
While the Lakers will play Andrew Bynum here at times, Gasol will get most of the minutes. Howard is going to play like a monster in the post, grabbing rebounds, blocking shots, and dunking. To neutralize his effect on the game, the Lakers should concentrate on keeping him off the offensive glass where a lot of his points come from put backs and to drive at him to get him in foul trouble. When the Cavs were effective against Orlando, it was when they were able to minimize Howard’s minutes and aggressiveness by getting him into foul trouble. Howard is going to score 20+ points and grab 12-15 rebounds and that should be ok with the Lakers. Howard scoring 30+ per game shouldn’t be a big deal unless the Magic shooters are hitting a lot of three-pointers. Gasol should also have a good series as his range will force Howard to step out of the paint defensively. Gasol is one of the most skilled big men in the league, and while he can’t match Howard’s strength or athleticism, his passing and shooting ability will be able to counter Howard’s effect.
Advantage- Magic

Bench- Lakers vs. Mickael Pietrus
The only bench player that really matters for Orlando is sniper Pietrus. He outscored Cleveland’s bench by himself in the conference finals, but the Lakers bench is deeper and more effective than the Cavs. Andrew Bynum, Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, Luke Walton, and Sasha Vujacic all give the Lakers quality minutes and offense off the bench. Not only should they be able to match Pietrus’s scoring off the bench, but they will be able to keep the Lakers’ starters fresh while Pietrus will only be able to give Turkoglu, Alston, and Lee breathers. The Lakers have Walton and Bynum down low to spell Gasol and Odom, while the Magic only have Marcin Gortat and Tony Battie to play in the post. Walton and Bynum both have a wide advantage offensively over Gortat and Battie, and Walton has the agility to defend either Lewis or Turkoglu on the perimeter. Vujacic and Brown are both offensive powder kegs that can score in bunched if they get hit, much like Pietrus. Overall, the Lakers have more impact players off the bench and should win this battle.
Advantage- Lakers

The Lakers have the advantage at both guard positions and off the bench, while the Magic own an advantage on the frontline. However, the Lakers advantage at both guard positions is fairly wide, while the margin at small forward and power forward is almost a push because the Lakers matchup well with the Magic at those positions. While the Magic have more skill, the Lakers may be able to neutralize it. While the Magic have Superman in the middle, Gasol is an all-star as well and should be able to counter most of Howard’s offense. Off the bench, if Pietrus has an off game, the Lakers will have a wide advantage in bench scoring and will win that matchup.

Prediction- Lakers in 6, MVP Kobe Bryant

Above the Rim: Another Big Injury and Hot Young Post Players

On January 31st, the Lakers picked up another win in a run away against Memphis. This game was different than other recent laughers for the Lakers as star center Andrew Bynum hurt his right knee. The Lakers are very deep down low, but they will miss Bynum’s shot blocking and power on the block as the rest of the forwards (Pau Gasol, Luke Walton, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Lamar Odom) are finesse players.

Walton- Walton has been starting at the small forward spot for the Lakers lately, but he is only playing 13 minutes a game. However, with Gasol sliding over to center in place of Bynum, Walton’s main back-ups, Radmanovic and Odom, will be splitting time at power forward now as well. That should free up more time on the court for Walton. In his limited playing time this season, Walton is averaging 4 points, 2 rebounds and 2 assists. I have always felt that Walton is one of the more skilled and all around forwards in the league, and I think that he can average around 12-5-5 with consistent playing time. While those numbers may be out of reach because of the Lakers depth, watch Walton closely to see if his playing time and numbers increase. If he has a good week, around 7-8 points and 3-4 assists and rebounds, look to pick him up until Bynum gets back.

Trevor Ariza- Ariza will become the main back-up at small forward with Bynum out and the rest of the forwards shifting to center and power forward. Ariza is averaging 24 minutes a game, 11 more than starter Walton has been this season. In those 24 minutes, Ariza has been very productive scoring 9 points to go with 4.8 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1.6 steals. Ariza also contributes a solid 47.3% shooting percentage. With increased playing time, probably still coming off the bench, look for Ariza to approach 12-13 points and 6 rebounds. Ariza is very athletic and versatile, and more minutes will allow him to showcase his talents even more; he could probably start on at least half the teams in the NBA.

Radmanovic- Vladimir is another back-up post player that should benefit with increased playing time. Vlad was sharing time with Ariza and Odom coming off the bench, but now those players don’t have to share minutes with Gasol. Radmanovic was already averaging 6.2 points and 2.6 rebounds in 17 minutes, and those numbers will increase with Bynum’s injury. Rasmanovic might experience the biggest jump of all these players as he is the only one that’s game revolves around shooting and not versatility and athleticism. Radmanovic is shooting 45% from the floor and 44.7% from the three point line this season, but with more playing time, Vlad will be able to get into more of a rhythm. He could double his scoring average up about 12 points per game if he gets on a roll. However, if Radmanovic does not take advantage of this playing time, he doesn’t contribute much in terms of rebounding or blocked shots despite being 6’10”. If Vlad’s shooting lets him down, don’t waste time with him in your lineup as he won’t be able to make up for it in other categories.

Odom- I have always felt that Odom deserves to start for someone because I see him as a player that could average 15 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists from either forward spot with more playing time. We’ll see if Odom can do it while Bynum is out. In 26 minutes off the bench as the Lakers top sub, Odom is averaging 9.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and over 1 steal and block. Odom can fill up the stat sheet on any night, and as the starter at power forward, he should be able to keep that up. Odom is also shooting 48.9% from the floor and above 35% from the three point line, so his efficiency has been high this year as well. While Odom has only made one start this season, last season, he averaged 14.2 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block per start while shooting 52.5%. Odom has shown that he can be extremely productive with more consistent playing time, and I would look for him to dramatically increase his production with Bynum out.

Around the League
Two young post players are making waves as their production has improved recently. Charlie Villanueva and Joakim Noah have both been playing their best ball of the season. Villanueva is finally becoming the star it looked like he would be as a high school star in New Jersey and at UConn. Noah is finally putting his aggressiveness and energy together with his skills and the result is more consistent shooting and rebounding.

Villanueva- After averaging about 12 points and 6 rebounds for his career, Charlie has improved to 15.2 and 6.6 this season, but that only tells part of the story. In 19 starts, Villanueva is averaging 17 points and 8.2 rebounds per game on 45.7% shooting, including 40.4% on threes and 89.9% on free throws. In 18 games in January, including 10 starts, Villanueva is at 20.2 points and 7 rebounds while shooting 51.7% from the floor, 44.1% from three point range, and 86.1% from the free throw line. Eleven of those 18 games have been 20 point games including a season high of 32 against Dallas. Villanueva has also contributed 5 double-doubles in that time period. Villanueva should be able to continue this production, or comparable production (17 points and 7-8 rebounds) for the rest of the season.

Noah- Noah has been starting since January 14th, and while his stats don’t change that much from starting to coming off the bench (5.1 points and 6.3 rebounds for both), he has been hot recently, maybe a sign that he will be increasing his production for the rest of the season. In his last 7 games, Noah has been shooting 61.4%. This percentage is not the product of limited chances either as Noah has been averaging 8.7 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks over this stretch. With the exception of one game in which Noah had 3 rebounds and took zero shots, he is averaging 10.2 points and 10.2 rebounds with 3.2 blocks per game in the remaining 6 games. These games have included a 17 point game and three games in which Noah scored at least 10, an 18 rebound game and three games of 10 or more rebounds, and an 8 block game. Keep an eye on Noah because he may become a very productive big man for the rest of the season.