Above the Rim: NBA Season Preview

The NBA season kicks off with the Cavaliers and the Celtics tomorrow night in a rematch of the 2008 Eastern Conference Finals (the Magic derailed the Celtics to ruin another matchup in the 2009 Conference Finals). This year’s offseason was fairly quiet with a lot of movement early and an unusual lack of off the court drama.

The contenders in the East and the West got richer this year without any teams making moves to join their ranks (the Pistons picking up Ben Gordon and Charlie Villaneuva should be enough to get them into the playoffs, but they will lose in the first round).

• The Cavaliers picked up Shaquille O’Neal early in the offseason to start the movement. While many seem to think that Shaq won’t perform at a high level, I think they are underestimating the Big Aristotle. He was an all-star last year in Phoenix averaging 17.8 points and 8.4 rebounds and Cleveland will be able to keep him fresh with Zydrunas Ilgauskas backing him up at center. Also, even if Shaq does not match his numbers from last year and settles around 14 points and 7 rebounds, it is still a large improvement over what the Cavs got from Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic last season. The Cavaliers then added Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon to increase their depth and athleticism at the shooting guard, small forward, and power forward positions. The Cavs are also expecting former Celtic Leon Powe back by the all-star break after off-season knee surgery.


• The Celtics also improved by adding Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels to their bench and, currently, are healthy after losing Kevin Garnett down the stretch. I think Wallace will be an effective pickup, but will not match his 12 points and 7.4 rebounds from last season with less looks on offense. I have always liked Daniels and he has proven he can be effective off the bench.


• The Orlando Magic had surprisingly high turnover on their roster after winning the Eastern Conference last season. The net result: Hedo Turkoglu, Rafer Alston, and Courtney Lee are all gone after contributing to the Magic’s run in the playoffs and are replaced by Vince Carter, Brandon Bass, and Ryan Anderson. I feel the Magic are worse off for the changes. Their bench is weaker with Mickael Pietrus stepping into the starting lineup at small forward because there isn’t an explosive player on the bench to replace him. Bass will help at the power forward and Anderson can shoot, but neither can match how effective Pietrus was. Lee was poised to break out this season and should have a good year in New Jersey where he will get more looks on offense. Carter is good, but he is getting older and has peaked. Swapping him for Turkoglu in the starting lineup also eliminates the matchup problems that a 6’11” point forward like Turkoglu created. His flexibility was a big reason why the Magic were able to knock off the Cavs last year. With a more traditional offense, the Magic lose that advantage and will struggle with both the Cavs and Celtics.


• The Lakers were the champions and then swapped Trevor Ariza, a potential star, for Ron Artest, an established star who I thought deserved top finish in the top 5 for MVP last season. The Lakers may also get something from Adam Morrison off the bench this season after getting him from Charlotte last season. After getting Shannon Brown from the Cavs, Brown developed into a nice role player within a season, and Morrison could be on track to follow in his footsteps.

Off-court drama in the NBA this off-season that could carry over into the regular season.

• How is the Stephen Jackson situation in Golden State going to unfold? After signing an extension, Jackson wants out for New York, Cleveland, or a team in Texas. The Cavs don’t have the pieces to make it happen and New York wants to maintain cap room for the 2010 free agent class. So where will Jackson end up…


• Toronto? The rumor a few weeks ago was a trade that would send Jackson to the Raptors for Chris Bosh. Bosh is a free agent in 2010 and is probably on his way back to the states. Toronto may try to cut its losses and get something back for Bosh if they are not in contention. However, the Raptors picked up Turkoglu this off-season and should be able to make the playoffs. Also, if they trade Bosh for Jackson, their leading rebounder from last season would be Andrea Bargnani, a 7 footer who plays more like a shooting guard instead of a post player, with only 5.3 rebounds per game. I look for Bosh to stay put in Toronto until at least the all-star break when the front office will have to evaluate how the season is going.


• Delonte West in Cleveland broke the silence of the off-season when he was arrested outside of Washington D.C. with pistols on his ankle and in his waistband, and a shotgun in a guitar case on his back. West left the team last year in training camp to get help with depression and bi-polar disorder. Supposedly, he was off his medication at the time of the arrest and is back on it now. Based on last season, West should be ok once the season gets started; he seems to cope better when he is around the other Cavs as he had his best season last year. However, the Cavs will probably have to play without him for a while as he will probably get suspended for a few games for his arrest.

Where is LeBron going?

• This story has been relatively quiet during the off-season as the economy will probably lower the salary cap next season restricting the number of teams that can offer him a full contract, or offer LeBron and another player max contracts. While the New York media, especially the New York Post, likes to write articles about why LeBron is coming to the Knicks, the rest of the country seems to think that LeBron will be back in Cleveland with an extension after the season. While I think that is probably what will happen, I still expect a steady stream of articles about LeBron leaving every time the Cavs play the Knicks or the Nets.

So what do we have to look forward to this season?

• LeBron James will win his second straight MVP award. His scoring may dip a bit as he shares the ball with Shaq and the other newcomers, but his rebounds and assists could jump as he plays off the ball a little more. I expect his assists to go up especially with Shaq in the post and Parker, whom coach Mike Brown said was the best shooter he has seen since Reggie Miller, on the wing. The Cavs were a 66 win team last season and improved, so they should be the top team in the East again which will help James in the MVP vote. Dark horse- Brandon Roy will lead the Blazers to the second best record in the West and will become one of the league’s elite players.


• Blake Griffin will run away with the Rookie of the Year. Last year’s best college player will get plenty of opportunities to produce for the dysfunctional Clippers and should average close to 15 points and 8 rebounds. A double-double average is an outside possibility as well. Second round surprises- Pitt Panthers Dajuan Blair and Sam Young were both productive and fundamentally sound players in college that will produce in the NBA this season. Blair will be a force in the post off the bench for the Spurs and Young should get looks for the Grizzlies at multiple positions.


• The Cavaliers and Celtics will play a classic series to decide the Eastern Conference championship for the second time in three years. This series will probably come down to who has home court advantage, but the Cavaliers are younger overall and have a little more depth on the bench and will be able to avoid and overcome injuries better than the Celtics. The series will go to seven games, but the Cavs should make their second appearance in the NBA Finals in four years where they will play …


• The LA Lakers. The Lakers are head and shoulders above every team in the West. It is kind of like when Larry Bird asked the other 3-point shooters who was going to finish second behind him at the 3-point shootout; there are talented teams out West, but this race is basically already decided. The only team I expect to give the Lakers trouble are the emerging Blazers. They played LA tough in the playoffs last season and should improve with another year of experience. I expect the Blazers to take the Lakers to six or seven games in the Western Conference Finals.


• In the NBA Finals, the NBA will finally have its Kobe-LeBron matchup. While the Lakers have the experience and may be the better team on paper, this series is too close to call. I would probably give the Lakers a 60-40 advantage today (which kills me as a Clevelander), but this series could go either way if LeBron or Kobe gets hot or if Shaq gets an adrenaline boost from playing against Kobe again.

Above the Rim: NBA Off-season Moves

The NBA off-season started with a bang as the Cleveland Cavaliers acquired center Shaquille O’Neal from the Phoenix Suns, but there still might be one or two bullets (Carlos Boozer?) left in the chamber before the off-season is over. Here is a summary of the big moves so far.

Richard Jefferson, San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs traded for the talented wing after Jefferson spent last season in Milwaukee. Jefferson has shown that he can be very effective when playing with an all-star point guard (Jason Kidd in New Jersey) and that will continue in San Antonio where he will play with Tony Parker. The Spurs still have the pieces to win a championship with Parker and Tim Duncan both returning and healthy. Sixth man Manu Ginobli may be wearing down as it is taking him more and more time to come back from nagging injuries. With Ginobli deteriorating, Jefferson will step in and be the third option for the Spurs as they challenge the Lakers in the West. The Spurs gave up aging role players Kurt Thomas, Bruce Bowen, and Fabricio Oberto to get Jefferson, but RJ should be able to make up the difference as he helps spread the floor for Duncan and Parker and scores around 17 points per game this season.
Verdict- major upgrade; the Spurs gain a high scoring wing while giving up three veterans who are in decline

Vince Carter, Orlando Magic
The Magic traded Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston, and Tony Battie for Carter (and Ryan Anderson). After watching the Magic dismantle the Cavaliers in the playoffs last season, I think this trade will actually hurt Orlando, along with the loss of Hedo Turkoglu. The Magic were built on perimeter shooting, ball movement, and Dwight Howard. Lee and Alston both fit that system well and Battie was a solid back-up in the post. Carter will not fit that system as well because he likes to dribble and drive. That could make the Magic stagnant as it will slow down the offense and result in lots of players becoming stationary. Alston was expendable with Jameer Nelson returning from last season’s injury, but the Magic have now lost Lee, who was a promising young guard, and Turkoglu. Carter can score, but he needs the ball and that could take away from the rest of the team’s effectiveness.
Verdict- one step backwards; the Magic lose a young core player in Lee and Carter may not mesh with Howard and Rashard Lewis

Shaquille O’Neal, Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs finally pulled the trigger on the Shaq to Cleveland trade that was rumored at the February all-star break. Shaq played 75 games last season, his most since playing 73 in 2004-2005 with Miami when they won the championship and he should be motivated next season by the chance to win a ring with LeBron. However, the Cavs should not expect, nor do they need Shaq to match last season’s 17.8 points and 8.4 rebounds. If Shaq can perform at that level, the Cavs would be thrilled, but with LeBron and Mo Williams already in the offense, the Cavs should be satisfied with 15 points and 7 or 8 rebounds a night. With shooters like Delonte West, Williams, and Daniel Gibson, the Cavs should also benefit from Shaq’s ability to pass out of the post. The Cavs still have Zydrunas Ilgauskas to back Shaq up and split minutes, so Shaq may not see 30 minutes a game like he did last season. However, this will keep both Shaq and Z fresher and healthier for the playoffs where Shaq should give the Cavs a better match-up with Dwight Howard than Anderson Varejao and Z did last season. With this acquisition, the Cavs greatly strengthened their front court and added size that should help against Orlando, Boston, and the Lakers.
Despite all of these positives that Shaq brings, the real plus for the Cavs is what they gave up to get him. Subtracting Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic without gaining anyone might be seen as improving the team and at least could be seen as not getting worse. So to add a talent like O’Neal while giving up two players who would not have played significant roles next season is a major coup for GM Danny Ferry. It is reminiscent of Ferry’s trade last off-season in which he gave up Joe Smith and Damon Jones and received future all-star Mo Williams in return.
Verdict- big upgrade in the post while not giving up any value

Ron Artest, Los Angeles Lakers and Trevor Ariza, Houston Rockets
While both of these players were free agents, their signings virtually created a trade. The results should be interesting as well. The Lakers definitely improve in the short term with Artest joining Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol to make the Lakers the early favorites to repeat. Artest is more polished than Ariza, although a very similar player, and is an upgrade to the Lakers for the next three years.
However, Ariza is only 24 and could become much better than Artest by the end of the contract. A good perimeter defender with the ability to score, Ariza will be in his prime near the end of this contract and could become a star. Artest has probably peaked, and while he is a good player, there won’t be any more improvement.
Verdict- this deal makes the Lakers better in the short-term, but the Rockets better in the long-term. If Artest can keep his emotions in check and avoid the suspensions that have hurt him in the past, the Lakers should win at least one title in the three years of this contract. Artest represents a mild upgrade over Ariza due to his more polished game, especially offensively. However, the Lakers may have hurt themselves in the long run because Ariza may develop into an all-star. The Rockets, on the other hand, may not make the playoffs next year with injuries to Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, but Ariza will be able to mature with Aaron Brooks, Von Wafer, and the Rockets other young players. When Yao returns and the Rockets use McGrady’s salary to sign other pieces when he comes off the books, the Rockets may be in a strong position to make a run at the Finals in the last few seasons of Ariza’s 5-year deal.

Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon, Detroit Pistons
The Pistons made a splash on the first day of free agency by spending $90 million on these two young players. Coming off a disappointing season in which the Pistons made the playoffs, but finished under .500 and were swept by the Cavs in the first round, the Pistons used their cap space to add two of the better young players in free agency. Initially targeting Carlos Boozer, the Pistons turned to Villanueva after Boozer exercised his player option with the Jazz. Villanueva will provide the Pistons with scoring and rebounding at the 4, but he will not be the banger Rasheed Wallace was. Villanueva is more of a finesse forward and is not as good defensively as Wallace. However, because he is only 24, Villanueva could grow into a more complete power forward and show he is worth $40 million over 5 years.
Gordon has already proven that he can score with anyone in the league, including Ray Allen in the playoffs, but the Bulls were unable to persuade him to stay in Chicago. The Pistons gain a shooting guard with unlimited range to plug next to promising young combo guard Rodney Stuckey. While Gordon can shoot the lights out, he is only 6’3” which can present match-up problems with some of the NBA’s bigger backcourts and Gordon is not very strong defensively to begin with. The signing also gives the Pistons three shooting guards (with Stuckey and Rip Hamilton) and no real point guard.
In these two deals, the Pistons sacrifice defense for offense and get younger in the process. Neither Villanueva nor Gordon will carry this team defensively like a Tayshaun Prince or Ben or Rasheed Wallace would. Also, neither player is the go-to-guy that can absolutely carry a team to victory. Both are good players, but they are not at the level where they will put a team over the top. The Pistons should see improvement, but they will not be able to catch Orlando, Cleveland, or Boston.
Verdict- moderate upgrade with defensive questions

Rasheed Wallace, Boston Celtics
This deal should help the Celtics depth, but should not be a very big upgrade. Wallace joins a crowded front court where Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis, and Leon Powe are already fighting for minutes. Wallace could provide intensity and perimeter shooting at the 4, but his potential contribution is being greatly exaggerated. Garnett will still be the starter, and Davis and Powe are productive back-ups who will also get playing time. While the Celtics did not spend much to obtain Wallace (just the mid-level exception), the signing will not put them over the top. If Wallace plays, it will take minutes from Powe, Davis, and maybe Garnett. If he doesn’t play as much, then his contribution is even more limited. Wallace does not present a major upgrade over what Boston already had, so it does not improve them that much to play him instead of their other post players.
Verdict- staying in place

Potential deals that could make waves are the rumored three team trade that would send Carlos Boozer to the Bulls and Kirk Hinrich to the Blazers, Boozer to the Pistons for Hamilton, and Boozer to Miami. I don’t think Boozer will be traded, but he could be the final piece of a championship for some teams in the league, especially the Bulls.