O'Malley's Tallies: Week 8 -- Live or Let Addai

Week 8 in the National Football League was definitely a historic one as the league showcased their talent overseas for the first time during a regular season game. As the Giants and Dolphins went to battle in Wembley Stadium in London, the NFL took the first real step in helping to make our great sport of American Football a worldwide phenomenon. As England continues to embrace our sport going forward, I bring you the Week 8 Edition of “O’Malley’s Tallies”…..

STUDS

1. Joseph Addai – Despite being in a definite trap game on the road in Carolina on Sunday (home vs. the Patriots next week), the Colts shook off a rusty beginning to the first quarter and eventually dominated the Panthers. This 31-7 beatdown was due in large part to Joseph Addai, who on the day gained 100 yards on 23 carries, caught 2 balls for 8 yards, and totaled 3 touchdowns. Despite rumblings mid week that he would be splitting carries going forward with Kenton Keith, Addai may have silenced some of that talk with such a dominant performance.

2. San Diego Defense/Special Teams – After such a horrible week in San Diego with the massive destruction caused by the wildfires, those living in the area that lost their homes hoped they could lean on the Chargers to bring the area something to feel good about it during this tough time. After jumping out to early lead due to the offense, it was both the defense and special teams that began to rally and absolutely HAMMER the Texans all day long. Whether it was recovering a botched punt for a touchdown or returning an interception for 70 yards, this defense truly gave the city of San Diego and fantasy owners alike something to be proud of.

3. Lee Evans – Prior to Sunday, a strong argument could have made that Lee Evans was easily the biggest disappointment in Fantasy Football this entire year. After a breakout season last year of near 1300 yards receiving, his slow start this year has been crippling those who took Evans very early in their drafts. However, as the expression goes, “Patience is a virtue.” On Sunday vs. the Jets, Evans finally had that breakout performance, catching 5 balls for 138 yards a touchdown. Included in those 5 catches was the game winning, 85 yard reception that he wrestled out of a defender’s hands and took it to the house to seal the victory for the Bills.

4. Tom Brady – See last week’s column, and the week before that, and most likely every week going forward. Absolutely unreal.

5. Drew Brees – It may have taken a little while, but the Saints of last year are definitely back. After starting the season 0-4, the team has now rallied to win three straight, largely in part due to the improved play of their quarterback Drew Brees. On the road Sunday vs. the 49ers, Brees had a quarterback rating of 136.8 by completing nearly 80% of his passes and throwing 4 touchdowns on 336 yards in a 31-10 win. With continued performances like this, the high powered New Orleans offense is going to tough to stop going forward.

DUDS

1. Plaxico Burress – Going into their matchup Sunday across the pond vs. the Miami Dolphins, Plaxico Burress had to be licking his chops with the prospect of going against a Miami Secondary without their two starting safeties and undersized corners. Projected as the #1 receiver by many experts going into week 8, Burress definitely didn’t come through as expected for fantasy owners. While the Giants still may have gotten the 13-10 victory, it was Burress’ 2 catch, 14 yard performance that leaves many owners scratching their heads.

2. Matt Schaub – What do you get when you add together an extremely talented defense and a hostile, emotional crowd? The answer is a NIGHTMARE for Matt Schaub. Before getting yanked in favor of Sage Rosenfels, Schaub completed 11 of 18 passes for only 77 yards and two interceptions. While the Texans may have been one of the feel good stories during the early portion of this season, things seem to be slowly but surely slipping away a little bit down in H-Town.

3. Brian Griese – I believe one major NFL analyst put it best on Sunday when he said, “If you lose to the Detroit Lions twice in one season, you don’t deserve to make the playoffs anyway.” That statement definitely was directed towards the Chicago Bears, who looked awful Sunday at home vs. those aforementioned Lions. While the blame can be spread in many different directions, the bulk of it must fall of the shoulders of quarterback Brian Griese. Going against a sub par Lions secondary, Griese went 22-40 for 208 yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions. Unless a major winning streak begins after the bye week for the Bears, it may finally be time to say goodbye to the playoffs for the defending NFC Champions.

4. Vince Young – In what was easily one of Sunday’s most dreadful games of the day, the Tennesee Titans beat the Oakland Raiders 13-9 in Nashville. While those who believe in Young will overlook his stats for his winning record, I on the other hand believe the former Longhorn is extremely overrated. On the day, V.Y.’s completion percentage of 42.9 was higher than the amount of yards he threw for (42)!!!! Although the Titans may be 5-2 in the win/loss column, any of those who really believe they can compete with the Colts and Patriots in the AFC come playoff time is out of their mind.

See you all next week after the amazing matchup between the undefeated Colts and Patriots! Thanks for reading!!

Matt's Stats: Week 8 NFL Preview

With another big week in the books here are the players and picks for Week 8 in the National Football League:


"Sleep"ing on the Job:

It's an easy choice for the top sleeper this week and that is Jesse Chapman (RB, Miami Dolphins). It is not often that you can get a starting RB off the waiver wire this late in the season, but thanks to the injury of Ronnie Brown, that is exactly what has happened. Chapman has totalled only 545 yards and 4 TDs in his career as a backup but as the full time starter is sure to put up stats (73 yards and 1 TD), worthy of making him a weekly fantasy starter. As of Sunday Chapman was owned on only 7% of CBS leagues, and now he is owned in 80 percent of leagues, so act fast if you are lucky enough to be in league that he is still available in.

If Chapman is already gone, do not get fooled into picking up Ricky Williams, as the Dolphins do not want him back even if the NFL allows it. Pick up either Patrick Cobbs or Lorenzo Booker if you want to pick up Chapman's backup in case of injury or lack of production.

"Play" or "Stay Away"

QB - Play Brian Griese (QB, Chicago Bears). Griese has been having a good season (1,203 Yards, 8 TD, 6 INT) since taking over for Rex Grossman and he gets to play against the 30th Ranked Lions defense. Expect a big game from Griese in Week 8.

Stay away from Jeff Garcia (QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Garcia is playing against the 13th ranked defense of the Jacksonville Jaguars, and should struggle a bit this week. Even when they lose, the Jaguars do not allow many points. Expect a 200 yard, 1 TD, 2 INT game and look elsewhere for a starter if possible.

RB - Play Brandon Jacobs (RB, New York Giants) this week against the Dolphins. The Dolphins are ranked 31st in the NFL against the run and will be missing one of their leading tacklers in Zach Thomas. Jacobs has set career highs for rushing yards in 2 of his last 3 games, and expect him to make it a new career high in 3 of 4 games as the Giants teach the British how you run the football. Also an added bonus, is that they are predicting rain in London on Sunday, which will increase the carries that Jacobs sees this week. Expect 125 Yards and 1-2 TDs.

Stay away from LaMont Jordan (RB, Oakland Raiders). After a very fast start Jordan has been unable to eclipse 100 yards in a game since Week 3. Jordan is against the Titans this week, who are #1 against the run allowing only 59.7 yards per game. Expect about 40 yards from Jordan this week and not much else. Look elsewhere for a starter at RB if you can.


WR - Lee Evans (WR, Buffalo Bills). The Jets have given up 246.3 receiving yards per game, ranked 25th in the league. Lee Evans is coming off his best game of the year with 5 receptions and 98 yards. Look for Evans to finally start to get on a roll with not only his first 100 yard game of the season, but with his first TD of the season as well.

Stay away from Torry Holt, Issaac Bruce, or any of the other Rams WRs until further notice. Yes, they all have good track records, and yes Marc Bulger is back, but this is a beat up Rams team. Do not expect any kind of consistency out of the position from them until 2008. If Holt has a good game this week against a weak Browns D then try to trade him while his value is up, because it does not look like he will be putting up his normal stats anytime this season.


Survival of the Fittest:

After a nice win last week to put my total to 6-1 this season, the pick here is the San Diego Chargers winning over the Houston Texans. Nobody knows where they will play, maybe in San Diego, maybe Houston, maybe LA, maybe Montana. But one thing is for certain, this Chargers team is starting to get back to normal and will be on a mission to win this week in honor of all the people in Southern California who had to abandon their homes because of the fires.

Have a Great Week 8!!!

Jeremy’s Spoken: Mid-Season Strategy: Redraft Leagues

It’s week 8 in the NFL which means it’s the midpoint of the season. For fantasy footballers in redraft leagues that means it’s time to take stock of your team and either gear up for the stretch run or begin to focus on your fantasy basketball league. In this edition of Jeremy’s Spoken we’ll provide some tips for evaluating your team for the rest of the season and tactics to help you prepare for the playoffs. We’re going to focus on redraft leagues. Next week we’ll look at keeper leagues which is a more complex task.

Where do you stand?

Obviously the standings play a major role here in determining your strategy for the rest of the season. If you’re 7-0 you can probably write your ticket to the playoffs. If you’re 0-7, you probably have little chance to do much except for the occasional fluke week.

But records can be deceiving. You need to thoroughly examine your roster with the next 9 weeks in mind. Are you off to a bad start but have Andre Johnson and Selvin Young on your roster? You’re in better shape than you think. Or perhaps you’re off to a great start but that was driven by Travis Henry and Ronnie Brown. You’ll be in a lot of trouble come playoff time.

When assessing your team, try to forget about the past 7 weeks. Sure, you can use performance to get a good idea of how well your players will do during the rest of the season. But schedule differences, injuries, and just plain luck also play a huge role in determining how much success you’ll have.

After considering all of these factors, you’ll want to come up with a rough estimate of how much risk you’re going to need to take on to have a chance of winning the championship.

Lowering Your Risk

If you’re 7-0 or 6-1 and relatively healthy, you’ll want to lower your risk. This may mean that no trades are needed but not necessarily. It could mean making small deals to protect yourself or scanning the waiver wire for backups to your studs. For example, suppose you have LaDanian Tomlinson but someone else has Michael Turner. In a redraft league, Turner’s value is nonexistent unless LT2 gets injured. However, if that were to occur, you’d surely be in big trouble. If you’re strong at WR, offer a backup from your team for Turner.

Increasing Your Risk

If you’ve had a poor season to date or had to deal with major injuries, your prospects may not look so good for the remainder of the year. You have nothing to lose by taking on risk and trying to gamble a bit more than your competitors.

A good example would be to trade for Travis Henry. In all likelihood he will not play during the fantasy playoffs which probably has his owner very worried. You should be able to swing a reasonable trade for him. If he ends up being suspended, well, you likely weren’t going to do well anyway. If not, you’ve made out like a bandit. You can follow a similar strategy with injured players (i.e. trade for Ben Watson, David Garrard, Andre Johnson).

Deal from a Strength

Think about what your starting lineup will look like during the playoff weeks. You might have your 2 or 3 starting RB set but might be planning on playing both of your QBs based on matchups. Anyone that is not in your plans for the playoffs should be trade bait unless you have a specific reason to keep them (i.e. keeping a backup RB as a handcuff). Try to offer these players along with your weakest starters for upgrades at those weak positions. Focus your trading efforts with teams that have a need at a position where you are strong.

My friend Adam is in a league where you have to roster 2 QB, 4 RB, 4 WR, 2 TE, 2 K, and 2 DST. He has Kellen Winslow and Heath Miller, both starting-caliber tight ends. With both having passed their bye weeks and only needing to start 1 each week, he is in position to deal one of them for RB help, where has only Kenny Watson and Michael Bennett.

Examine the Schedule

The NFL schedule during the fantasy playoffs can play a huge role in the outcome of your season. The guys at Football Outsiders just did a similar exercise. Their Buy Low, Sell High column from October 24^th outlines a few players to buy or sell based on their matchups the rest of the way. Trade for players with favorable schedules and deal those with unfavorable matchups. Strength of schedule is usually a very underutilized piece of information in evaluating future performance.

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Jeremy Mittler, M.B.A., is a Strategy and Statistical Expert at SportsJudge.com. His column, Jeremy's Spoken, appears on Thursdays at SportsJudge Blog.

O'Malley's Tallies: Week 7 -- Near Perfection

As the trading deadline has come and gone and the mid point of the season approaches, it is great to see such tight division races around the NFL. With the exception of the dreadful AFC "Least" Division, so much of the NFL standings are up for grabs as we quickly approach November. With the temperatures beginning to drop and the games begin to mean a lot more, it will be interesting to see which teams are definitely going to be contending as well as those that are truly just pretending to be playoff caliber organizations. As I leave you with that thought, here is week 7 edition of “O’Malley’s Tallies”….

STUDS

1. Tom Brady – It’s looking more and more likely that this spot will be reserved for him each and every week. Against the Fish on Sunday, Brady went an unreal 21-25 for 354 yards and 6 touchdowns. In the world of quarterbacks, if this isn’t perfection, I am not sure what is.

2. Kenny Watson – Subbing again for the banged up Rudi Johnson, Kenny Watson went out on Sunday and had the best game of his career vs. the New York Jets. The former Nittany Lion threw the entire team on his back for the day, rushing 31 times for 130, catching three balls for 27 yards, and scoring three times to help lead the Bengals to a desperately needed comeback win vs. the Jets.

3. Laveraneus Coles – In the 1^st half of the Jets game Sunday vs. the Bengals, things couldn’t have looked better for Lavernaneus Coles. L.C. scored two first half touchdowns of 36 and 57 yards and began to silence the critics by asserting himself as Chad Pennington’s clear #1 target. On the day, Coles finished with 8 catches for 133 yards and the two scores.

4. Earnest Graham – While Earnest Graham may not have found the end zone on Sunday, he definitely did some things that made those in PPR leagues extremely happy. On the day, Graham had an impressive THIRTEEN receptions out of the backfield for 99 yards as well as totaling 92 yards rushing on 19 carries. While many thought the trade for Michael Bennett would hurt the fantasy value of Mr. Graham, it certainly didn’t appear to be the case on Sunday vs. the Lions.

5. Rob Bironas – Another kicker sighting on the Stud list!!! While some of you may have argued the validity of Kris Brown making this list a few weeks ago, it is impossible to say Rob Bironas does not deserve to be here. Sunday vs. the Texans Bironas broke an NFL Record by going 8 FOR 8 in field goals as well as adding 2 extra points. Overall, Bironas hit field goals from 52, 25, 21, 30, 28, 43, 29, as well as the game winner as time expired from 29 to help lead his Titans to victory.

DUDS

1. Marc Bulger – Wow. What has happened to the “Greatest Show on Turf”? Once a pleasure to watch each week offensively, the St. Louis Rams have now begun to find new ways each week to get worse. Last week it was Gus Frerotte and his 5 interceptions making the list. This week it’s Marc Bulger, who completed only 52.5% of his passes, threw 3 interceptions, was sacked 6 times, and fumbled in the Rams 33-6 loss Sunday at Seattle. If Tom Brady can have a spot reserved for him on the Stud list, I am beginning to think there will be a weekly St. Louis Ram on the dud list…

2. Bobby Petrino – This choice is beginning to become a no brainer. The Falcons are now 1-6 without any sort of playoff aspirations left to think of. With that being said, what does Petrino honestly see in his evaluation of the running game by continuing to give the ball to Warrick Dunn over Jerious Norwood? On the year, Dunn has tallied 95 carries while Norwood only 47. Despite having only half the carries that Dunn has been given, Norwood remains only 20 yards behind him in rushing yards and has a YPC average of 5.8 compared to Dunn’s 3.1. The future of this club does not belong to 32 year old Dunn. It should belong to the 24 year old playmaker Jerious Norwood.

3. New York Jets – How does a team with a 10 point lead at halftime and all the momentum in the world blow a game like the New York Jets did on Sunday? Just when you thought it was safe to think the Jets could steal a nice road win in Cincinnati, the entire team (from offense, to defense, to coaching staff) goes into a shell and looks awful in the 2^nd half. After a 1-6 start to begin to the year, Gang Green could be seeing Kellen Clemens at the helm next Sunday vs. the Bills in the Meadowlands.

4. Santana Moss – While in all fairness Moss has been a little banged up all year, the fact still remains that this is not what fantasy owners expected at the beginning of the year. With young quarterback Jason Campbell beginning to make strides as an NFL starter, many thought Moss would have a big year down in the Nation’s Capital for the Skins. Unfortunately for him, this has definitely not been the case as of late. On Sunday vs. the Arizona Cardinals, Moss caught only 2 balls for a total of 8 yards, bringing his total for the year up to 14 receptions. If the Redskins hope to build upon their 4-2 start and challenge the Giants and Cowboys for the division crown, #89 is going to have to step it up.

Thanks for reading as always. Speak to you all next Sunday!!

Matt's Stats: Week 7 NFL Preview

We have officially reached the midpoint of the Fantasy season so lets get right to the action...Here are the players and picks for Week 7 in the National Football League:

"Sleep"ing on the Job:

1) Byron Leftwich (QB, Atlanta Falcons) - Last week I said to pick up Leftwich, so here is just a quick reminder. As predicted he is now the starter for Atlanta after another bad week. Pick him up if for a dependable backup, as he is certain to improve the Falcons offense.

2) Michael Bennett (RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - The Bucs are in need of a RB and they got a very good one at the trade deadline this year. His best year was back in 2002 (1296 Rushing Yards, 5 Rushing TD, 351 Receiving Yards, 1 Receiving TD for the Vikings), but he is still only 29 years old and should get a lot more playing time in Tampa Bay then he ever got in Kansas City. This may be a bit late, since he has been picked up in 55% of leagues since the trade deadline, but if you are one of the 33% of leagues in which he is still a free agent, pick him up immediately! With so many RBs being injured, Bennett is sure to be a big help down the stretch.

"Play" or "Stay Away"

QB - Play Carson Palmer (QB, Cincinnati Bengals). Palmer (4 TD, 6 INT over the last 3 games) and the entire Bengals team has been struggling as of late, but expect them to wake up against the Jets this week, who are currently ranked 27th against the pass.

Stay Away from Daunte Culpepper (QB, Oakland Raiders). Culpepper is playing against a good KC defense (194.5 passing yards allowed per game, 5 TD allowed, 7 INT) and has struggled since the Miami game (229 Yards, 1 TD, 2 INT against SD in Week 6). Look elsewhere this week at QB.

RB - Play Willie Parker (RB, Pittsburgh Steelers). Pittsburgh is against Denver (ranked last against the run in the NFL giving up 187.6 per game) on Sunday Night Football. Expect Parker to get his first TD since Week 2 and about 100-125 yards rushing.

Stay away from Marion Barber (RB, Dallas Cowboys). After combining for 256 yards and 4 TDs in his first 3 games, Barber has not done much. In his last 3 weeks he has only 127 yards and 0 TDs. Look for Barber to struggle again as Dallas plays against a very good Vikings defense (ranked 2nd against the run allowing 66.2 yards per game). While it is always a possibility that Barber gets a goal line TD, he is much more likely to have another game with little production. Stay away from him if possible until his next game against Philly in Week 9.

WR - Play Patrick Crayton (WR, Dallas Cowboys). Crayton already has 381 receiving yards and is tied for the team lead with 4 TDs during the entire season. He has gained most of those yards over the last 3 games with 303 yards and 4 TDs coming in that time. Crayton will ride his momentum into the game this week against Minnesota, who gives up the most receiving yards per game (304.6) of any team in the NFL. A 150 yard, 2 TD performance is definitely possible and Crayton should be started in all leagues.

Stay away from Dwayne Bowe (WR, Kansas City Chiefs). Boye has had a great rookie season, rising to #1 on the Chiefs depth chart, but do not start him in Week 7. The Raiders rank 11th in Receiving yards allowed this year but 28th in Rushing yards allowed (144.8 Yards per game). Expect a heavy dose of rushing by Larry Johnson and not much receiving yards from Bowe or the rest of the Chiefs this week.

Survival of the Fittest:

Thanks to San Diego's win last week over Oakland my record for the season is up to 5-1. The pick this week is an easy one. For the first time this year I'm going to go with the New England Patriots. The Patroits are undefeated, the Dolphins are winless, and yet I was a bit nervous making this pick. Miami should keep it close for a half then look for the Pats to run away with the game.

Have a Great Week 7!

Jeremy’s Spoken: Catch Rate, Part 2

Last week we took a look at Catch Rate (CR) as a way to try and identify undervalued wide receivers. Today we’ll examine CR for tight ends.

The number following each player is their CR this year. The numbers in parentheses are that player’s catch rate from each of the 2 previous seasons.

Catching on

• Ben Watson – 90% (54%, 54%): Look at the leap in CR from the previous 2 seasons! The only thing keeping Watson from being as good as Antonio Gates is his lack of targets (as noted in this column previously). In fact, if you project his numbers this year based on the number of times Gates has been thrown to (54) you end up with 48 catches for 599 yards. I would expect he’d have more than his 5 TDs as well making him the new Antonio Gates. The Patriots just have too many weapons for him to be a focal point of the offense. If Randy Moss ever gets hurt…well, you get the idea.
• Antonio Gates – 80% (59%, 64%): Simply the best. His 80% catch rate is better than his last 2 years. If he can keep this up, he could shatter TE receiving records this year.
• Donald Lee – 76% (48%, 60%): Clearly Brett Favre’s best TE target. Although he’s been targeted the same number of times as his TE mate Bubba Franks, he’s catching 50% more passes than Franks. With Franks out, Lee could shine in Green Bay’s passing-heavy attack.

Catch me if you can

• Bo Scaife – 50% (52%, 67%): Vince Young’s teammate in college and many people’s sleeper TE this season hasn’t lived up to the hype. Part of this can be attributed to Vince Young’s accuracy issues but as long as he’s only being targeted 4 times per game and catching half of those targets, he’s not worthy of a roster spot on your team.
• Bubba Franks – 52% (47%, 67%): It’s interesting that his TE partner in Green Bay is catching everything that Brett Favre throws his way, while Franks is struggling. Before his knee injury he was only averaging 6.4 yards per reception when he was hanging onto the ball. Drop him from your team.
• Jeremy Shockey – 56% (57%, 53%): Shockey seemingly drops at least 1 key pass every game and these numbers back it up. He’s been an overrated fantasy TE for years and won’t live up to his potential until he can hang onto more passes.

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Jeremy Mittler, M.B.A., is a Strategy and Statistical Expert at SportsJudge.com. His column, Jeremy's Spoken, appears on Thursdays at SportsJudge Blog.

O'Malley's Tallies: Week 6 -- Familiar Faces back in the Spotlight

If I really wanted to make things easy for my readers this week, my entire article could simply read “STUDS: New England Patriots” and “DUDS: St. Louis Rams.” In just that one sentence, all the readers country wide could understand how dominant the Patriots were vs. the Cowboys Sunday and just how putrid the 0-6 St. Louis Rams played. While there is little doubt that this is a very fair assessment, I would not be doing my job if I ignored the various other highs and lows that week 6 had to offer. With that being said, here is the week 6 edition of “O.T’s”….

STUDS

1. LaDanian Tomlinson – I know I was dogging him in the beginning of the year for his sub par play. I will be the first to admit that. However, I think we all knew it was just a matter of time before L.T. decided to have a coming out party didn’t we? Going up against the Oakland Raiders on Sunday in a major division clash, Tomlinson stepped up BIG TIME and torched the boys in black for 199 yards on 24 carries and scored 4 touchdowns to lead the Bolts to a 28-14 victory. After starting off the season slow, it seems that the Chargers have really gotten their swagger back heading into the bye week.

2. Maurice Jones Drew – What a difference two weeks can make! It seems like just yesterday I could remember a bunch of people slapping the “one year wonder” tag on M.J.D. and ready to trade him for whatever possible. After carrying the rock for nearly 10 yards a pop these past two weeks, those who were patient are definitely seeing their reward now. On Sunday vs. Houston, M.J.D. stuck the proverbial fork into the Texans with two 4^th quarter touchdowns are finished the day with 12 carries for 125 yards. Not a bad day at the office if you ask me…

3. Adrian Peterson – Ladies and Gentlemen, I introduce to you your 2007 Offensive Rookie of the Year, Mr. Adrian Peterson!! There it is, I’ve said it. Mark it down, quote me on it, do whatever you want to do. This former Oklahoma Sooner is downright legit and he definitely showed the country that on Sunday. Going against a stingy Chicago defense that has been finally starting to get healthy, A. Pete carried the rock 20 times for a mind blowing 224 yards and had three touchdowns. In addition, Peterson also had 128 kick returning yards including a crucial 53 yard return late in the 4^th to help set up Ryan Longwell’s game winning field goal to help the Purple People Eaters leave Chi Town with a W.

4. Patriots – As I mentioned earlier, I could easily take up the entire page with studs from this game. Whether it was Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, or various members of the defense, this team went into Dallas against the unbeaten Cowboys and made them look absolutely inferior. I hate to say this as a Fish fan but after a performance like this, it is looking more and more possible that the 72’ undefeated team may have company late in December..

5. Vinny Testaverde – While his numbers may not have been as flashy as the boys above, Vinny Testaverde’s performance Sunday went beyond statistics. Signed off his couch only a week ago after Jake Delhomme and David Carr went down with injuries, Vinny stepped in (with a very brief knowledge of the offense) and helped lead his Carolina Panthers to a road victory against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. On the day, Vinny completed 60% of his passes, 200 yards, and one late touchdown to Steve Smith to help his Panthers improve to 4-2.

DUDS

1. Gus Frerotte – Ugh. Where do I begin? I will make this as short and non painful as possible to read: 19-36, 208 yards, 5 interceptions, 0 touchdowns. I think it is safe to say the Gus Frerotte experiment in the St. Louis may have come to an end.

2. Shaun Alexander – You know things are not going too well for Shaun Alexander when he gets replaced in the forth quarter by LEONARD WEAVER. Who!? After only managing 35 yards on 14 carries actually a less than stellar Saints Defense, Alexander was benched during a few crucial fourth quarter drives and even heard a collection of boos from the Qwest Field faithful. Now on the wrong side of thirty, things are definitely not looking so good for the former NFL MVP.

3. Miami Defense – When a backup quarterback named Cleo Lemon helps puts up 31 points for your team, in my opinion the defense has to step up and bring home the win. Sunday in Cleveland, however, this couldn’t have been further from the truth. The Dolphins defense repeatedly shot themselves in the foot with dumb penalties, a terrible third down conversion rate, and horrific secondary play to cause the team to drop to 0-6 and make Anderson to Edwards look like Montana to Rice.

4. Marques Colston – At the beginning of the year, many people like myself thought Marques Colston would have a MONSTER year. I mean why not? Joe Horn left via free agency making him the #1 receiver and he had another off-season to really learn and get a feel for Sean Payton’s offense. Despite these facts, things just haven’t been really working out for the former Hofstra product. While he did indeed catch a touchdown on Sunday night vs. the Seahawks, it was the rest of his stat line that was somewhat alarming: One catch for 2 yards. Doesn’t really seem like #1 caliber numbers to me…

Well that is all for this week folks. Hopefully the majority of your fantasy teams are continuing to be in the playoff hunt and that you avoid the injury bugs that lurks each and every year. See you all next week!!

Slap Shots: Hockey Thru 2 Weeks

There are some surprises through the first 2 weeks of the new NHL season, from teams off to good starts to teams/players not performing up to their contracts.

Surprise team:

Atlanta (winless) - This team has way too much talent to struggle offensively as they have in Ilya Kovalchuk, Slava Kozlov and Marian Hossa(injured, groin). Once Hossa comes back and proves he is 100 %, watch out. There is a young player in Darren Haydar, a perennial top 5 scorer in the AHL to watch.

Players (minus):

Scott Gomez/Chris Drury/B. Shanahan/Jaromir Jagr: 3 combined goals. The Rangers might have made a big mistake in throwing all that money at Drury and Gomez in the off-season. Gomez has never been a big goal scorer, and never will. He will score 10-15 a season. Drury is a player who will score 25-30, but will he ever create chemistry with Jagr? There are many possible ego issues there.

Jason Blake, TOR - no goals and only 1 assist, and a long fight against cancer upcoming. Will Toronto GM John Ferguson, Jr. ever live this signing down if he can't recover, although they say he can play through it. A small player, we will see how his game holds up throughout the treatments. All of us in the hockey world pass our prayers and well-wishes to him and his family in his battle.

Top 5 hot players of the week:

Paul Stastny, COL 10 pts and 5 goals building on a successful rookie season
Dany Heatley/Jason Spezza/Daniel Alfredsson, OTT - all 3 in top 5 of NHL in scoring
Martin Gerber, OTT - 5 wins in 6 games while Ray Emery rehabs from surgery

Top 3 slow starts
Slava Kozlov, 1-1-2 in 5 games
Marian Hossa, 1 goal in 2 games, hurt his groin
Brian Gionta, 1-1-2 in 5 games

Matt's Stats: Week 6 NFL Preview

It was a nice comeback week in Week 5, a return to normalcy for Matt's Stats after a slight bump in the road in Week 4. While only 29% of CBS leagues were starting Jason Campbell last week, it was Matt's Stats who was telling you that he would make for an excellent start. The result was Jason Campbell having the best game in his career with 248 Yards (career high), 2 TD (tying a career high), and a 125.3 QB Rating (first time in his career with a QB Rating over 100). Now to look to the future with the players and picks you will want to make for Week 6 of the National Football League.

"Sleep"ing on the Job:

Byron Leftwich (QB, Atlanta Falcons) - Now I know you are going to see this and think I'm crazy. You may even ask, Why would anyone want a backup QB on their roster? Well here is why. Everyone knows that Harrington is about to lose his job. He was taken out towards the end of the game last week, and is now on a quick hook. Going against the tough Giants defense should equal another rough week for Harrington, and make it a distinct possibility that Leftwich starts in Week 7. It was a surprise when Jacksonville released Leftwich earlier in the year, but he is still a good NFL QB. He has a lifetime 58.5 completion percentage, 84 TD and 51 INT. Every year of Leftwich's career except his rookie season in 2003, Leftwich threw for more TD then INT. With more and more QB's going down, the waiver wire shouldn't have much options left. When he becomes a starter, Leftwich could become a popular waiver pickup. Currently he is owned in only 7 percent of CBS Leagues, pick him up now and beat the pack if you can, and you could be adding a great fill-in QB that can assist in your push to the playoffs.

"Play" or "Stay Away"

QB - Play Donovan McNabb (QB, Philadelphia Eagles). McNabb has been very up and down this year and doubt has crept into owner's heads as evidenced by only 65% of owners in CBS leagues having him in the starting lineup for Week 6. McNabb is facing off against the Jets (Currently ranked 25th against the Pass) and is well rested coming off the bye. Expect McNabb to bounce back nicely this week. He won't duplicate the 381 Yards, 4 TD Week 3 performance against Detroit, but he will do better then the 138 Yards, 0 TD Week 4 performance against the Giants. McNabb should total about 250 Yards and 2-3 TDs in an easy win against the Jets, making him an excellent starter for this week.

Stay away from Carson Palmer (QB, Cincinnatti Bengals). Palmer has struggled two weeks in a row (Totalling 2 TD and 4 INT against Seattle and New England) and now must go against the tough Kansas City Chiefs defense. Herm Edwards always has a good defense and this year is no exception, as the Chiefs rank 5th in the league against the Pass. Palmer will turn it around eventually, but that will probably take one more week until he plays the Jets in Week 7. Stay away from Palmer this week if you have a good back up on your roster.


RB - Play Larry Johnson (RB, Kansas City Chiefs). Of course this is an obvious choice. A top RB taken in the first round should start every week. This is more to reassure you that all is not lost with LJ. Johnson had the worst game of his career last week (9 Rushes for 12 Yards against Jacksonville) and has totalled only 275 Rushing Yards this year, with 0 TD on the season. Week 6 will be the week that Johnson breaks out. The Bengals rank 29th in the league against the run and Johnson in 2 career games against Cincy has scored 3 TD and averaged 6.3 yards per rush.
Expect Johnson to finally get in the endzone this week, with a 165 yard, 3 TD game being a distinct possibility.

Stay away from Cedric Benson (RB, Chicago Bears). Benson has been decent at best this year (303 Rushing yards, 3 yards per rush avg, 2 TD) and will struggle against Minnesota this week. Do not get excited by the Bears comeback last week against Green Bay, they are still not good at all. The Vikings go into this game against Chicago ranked #1 in the NFL against the Run, only giving up 62 yards per game. Benson is going to struggle and is not a recommended start in Week 6.


WR - Play Bobby Engram (WR, Seattle Seahawks) this week. Engram has totalled 275 Yards and 2 TD so far this year playing as the #3 WR of the Seahawks. With Branch now out, Engram will be starting and will now get increased playing time. Seattle plays against New Orleans (19th Ranked Defense against the Pass) on Sunday Night Football and Engram looks to be a popular target for Hasselbeck.

Stay away from Braylon Edwards (WR, Cleveland Browns) in Week 6. Cleveland is playing against a horrible Miami team but Miami still has a good defense. They rank third against the pass this year and while the Browns should be able to win, Derek Anderson will have some difficulty getting the ball to his WRs. Bench Edwards this week if other options are available.

Survival of the Fittest:

Thanks to Arizona's win over St. Louis last week, I got back on the winning side of things to put my record at 4-1 for the season. The pick this week is the San Diego Chargers at home over the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders are good, but LaMont Jordan is injured and Dominic Rhodes may take a few weeks to get going. The Chargers are returning home after finally breaking out with a 41-3 win at Denver last week. Expect the Chargers to win and enter the bye week at .500.

Have a Great Week 6!

Jeremy’s Spoken: Catch Me If You Can

The last two weeks we looked at targets to try and find some hidden gems among wide receivers and tight ends. Today, we’ll look at the target’s cousin—catch rate. Simply, a receiver’s catch rate (or CR) is the number of catches as a percentage of targets. Combined with targets data, we can get a good idea of how productive a receiver is.

According to Pro Football Prospectus, a study of catch rate shows that receivers have a definite impact on incomplete passes. This logic differs from conventional wisdom whereby the quarterback shoulders most of the blame for an incomplete pass. In general, receivers that run longer routes will have a lower catch rate. The league average is approximately 60%

Now on to the data. The number following the player’s name is their current catch rate for 2007. The numbers in parentheses represent the player’s catch rate from the past two years.

Catching On – Wide Receivers with a High Catch Rate

• Randy Moss - 81% (43%, 48%): This guy is simply incredible. Look at the difference in CR between the last two years and 2007. Apparently having an accurate quarterback can make a world of difference. The 81% catch rate is 2^nd best in the league among those with 20 or more targets. To catch 81% of passes thrown his way and average more than 16 yards a catch is amazing. If he doesn’t continue his dominance and finish 2007 as the best fantasy wide receiver, I will be shocked.
• Wes Welker - 75% (67%, 56%): Hmm, I wonder what he has in common with Moss that results in his #4 ranking in catch rate. The 67% CR from 2006 means that he should keep up his current pace as long as Brady keeps looking his way (7 targets per game to date). His 9.7 YPC average is more in line with what one would expect from a player with such a high CR.
• Antwaan Randle El - 72% (51%, 50%): Although his 2007 CR looks like an aberration, he cought 68% of the passes thrown his way in 2004. Jason Campbell’s accuracy has only been average in his brief career. Combined with an 18.8 YPC average and the likely return of Santana Moss to the lineup, it’s likely that Randle El’s production will drop-off in the coming weeks.
• Bobby Engram – 68% (67%, 69%): Talk about Mr. Consistency. He’s already being targeted more than 5 times per game and now he becomes a starter with Deion Branch on the sidelines. Expect his next few weeks to be very productive.
• Michael Jenkins – 67% and Roddy White – 66% (47%, 51% and 47%, 43%, respectively): Both of these receivers have been criticized early in their careers for having a severe case of the dropsies. The early results this year, however, show that they both may have turned the corner. Joey Harrington has completed 67% of his passes (a big jump from his past seasons) which may mean Bobby Petrino’s offense deserves a large part of the credit. White in particular may finally be realizing his potential after glowing off-season and training camp reports of his improved concentration and confidence. The fact that he is averaging 17 YPC along with his CR is astounding. The only thing holding these guys back is their offensive line and quarterback.

Catch My Disease – Wide Receivers with a Low Catch Rate

• Drew Bennett – 33% (47%, 53%): Ugh. He has caught just 8 of 24 balls thrown his way. Stepping in as a starter last week (for the injured Isaac Bruce) didn’t help as he caught just 2 passes (although 1 was a TD). With injuries to his QB and the offensive line and a history of low CR, one would be wise to stay away.
• Reggie Brown – 36% (50%, 51%): So much for the anticipated 3^rd year breakout. Brown has caught only 8 of 22 passes targeted for him. Donovan McNabb has never been an accurate passer so temper your expectations.
• Terrell Owens – 45% (56%, 51%): It’s no surprise that T.O. is on this list, given his history of drops. He makes up for his stone hands with a whopping 18.5 YPC average and loads of touchdowns. However, the fact that he is on the bottom of this list while Randy Moss is at the top should end any discussion of the two of them being in the same class of receiver.
• Chris Chambers – 52% (39%, 49%): His 52% CR is the highest of his career which says quite a bit about how overrated Chambers has been throughout his career. With Trent Green out for the year, expect Chambers’ already low catch rate to decline even further. Yes, he is targeted often (48 times through 5 games) and can make the ESPN highlight reel on occasion, but it’s time to dump Chambers once and for all.
• Lee Evans – 39% (60%, 53%): So far, Evans has been one of the biggest disappointments of 2007. Yet he managed to catch 60% of the passes thrown his way last year with J.P. Losman at the helm. With an improving running game and Losman due back soon, expect Evans to pick up his game. Stick with him if you own him or target him in a trade if you can acquire him at a discount. Likely to rebound.

____________________________________________________
Jeremy Mittler, M.B.A., is a Strategy and Statistical Expert at SportsJudge.com. His column, Jeremy's Spoken, appears on Thursdays at SportsJudge Blog.

O'Malley's Tallies: Week 5 -- "Put Up" or "Shut Up"

Thanks to the Professor's hard-line stance against Matt from Stats this week, things were beginning to look contentious around SportsJudge.com. However, as people's expectations go up, sometimes you have to just put up, or shut up.

Matt from Stats put up this week -- albeit barely -- by calling the Arizona Cardinals win over the Rams to improve the 4-1 in survivor. Meanwhile, NFL teams like the Chicago Bears and San Diego Chargers -- both preseason favorites despite 1-3 starts -- also put up big with colossal wins, showing that they each are far from done.

On that note, here comes the week 5 Edition of “O.T’s” studs and duds…

STUDS

1. Kris Brown – I know, I know. Most of you think I’m crazy for putting a KICKER on this list. That is of course unless Kris Brown was active on your fantasy team yesterday! For the day, Brown connected on all five field goal attempts and an extra point, including three 50+ yard attempts (a 57 yard to win it with one second on the clock!) to rack up a huge day for fantasy owners and lead his team to a victory vs. who else, the Miami Dolphins..

2. Philip Rivers – After a few weeks in my dog house on the O.T’s “dud” list, P Riv finally stepped up a delivered a performance fantasy owners have been waiting for vs. the Broncos. With many critics beginning to discount the chances of the Chargers have a legitimate playoff chance anymore, Rivers silenced his doubters by throwing for 270 yards on only 13 completions (72% of his completions) and two touchdowns to lead the Bolts to a 41-3 beat down on division rival Denver.

3. Kenton Keith – No Joseph Addai, no problem!! After the former Bayou Bengal was declared inactive late Sunday afternoon, Kenton Keith made the most of his starting opportunity vs. the Bucs and made his fantasy owners (like myself!) extremely impressed. On the same day as his alma mater New Mexico State got drubbed by Boise State 58-0, Keith rushed for 121 yards, scored two touchdowns, and caught 5 balls to lead his team to a 33-14 victory going into the bye week. While Keith owners can expect him to go back into a backup role after the bye week, it is good to know that he can indeed carry the rock should something serious happen to Addai.

4. Jason Campbell – Coming out of the bye week, the Redskins had to have known they had a chance to do some good things through the air vs. a less than stellar Detroit Lion pass defense. With that being said, they certainly did not disappoint as Jason Campbell completed 79.8% of his passes and threw for 248 yards and two touchdowns to beat the topsy turvy Detroit Lions at home Sunday. Without much hype, Campbell quietly has his Skins at 3-1 heading into next week where they face off against the 3-1 Packers at Lambeau.

5. Larry Fitzgerald – Don’t look now, but the Arizona Cardinals are 3-2! In one of the highest scoring games of the day, Arizona receiver Larry Fitzgerald stole the show vs. the Rams on Sunday, catching 9 balls for 136 yards and 1 touchdown to help put his team over .500. On a day where the team lost QB Matt Leinart for an extended period of time with a broken collarbone, Fitzy stepped up big time with Anquan Boldin out and looks to be Kurt Warner’s favorite target going forward.

6. The Bills Defense -- Although the game is still going on at the time of publishing this article, the Bills had four first-half picks against Cowboys QB Tony Romo. This earns them an automatic spot on this list.

DUDS

1. Jon Kitna – After dropping 34 fourth quarter points against the Bears last week at home, one would think the Lions offense would have been in prime shape (including the return of Calvin Johnson) heading into Fed Ex Field on Sunday. In reality, however, this couldn’t have been further from the truth. On the day, Kitna completed 16-29 of his passes for only 106 yards to go along with two interceptions, obviously never finding that rhythm from the previous week. With much of a serious running game threat, it seems Kitna’s job won’t get much easier as the Lions go up against a stingy Bucs defense ready to show the country that Sunday’s performance vs. Indy was an anomaly.

2. Chad Pennington – With emotions running high in Sunday’s Big Apple showdown with the Jets vs. Giants, everyone knew the key to the Jets winning fell in the hands of QB Chad Pennington. Despite getting a touchdown from both his defense as well as his special teams, Pennington still could not hold the team’s lead and made some highly questionable throws in key situations. On the day, Pennington threw for 226 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions as the Jets blew a ten point, third quarter lead to lose 35-24 to the cross town rivals. While arm strength has always been an issue for Chad, it never seemed to be as apparent as it was on Sunday.

3. Larry Johnson – As the weeks go by, that five year, $45 million extension for RB Larry Johnson is starting to look more and more shaky to those around the league and in fantasy. Just when it was safe to say it couldn’t get any worse, it definitely did on Sunday. Going against a stout Jacksonville front seven, Johnson carried the rock 9 times and amassed only 12 YARDS. While the argument can indeed be made this none of this year’s top picks are carrying their weight in fantasy (LT, S-Jax, Gore, etc), 12 yards for one of the highest paid players in the NFL is absolutely unacceptable.

4. The Entire Browns Offense – For those with a casual eye, a 34-17 defeat for the Cleveland Browns vs. the New England Patriots on Sunday looks about right. However, if anyone were to have watched that game, they know how many chances the Browns blew on Sunday. Whether it was stupid penalties moving them out of field goal range, fumbling the ball on their own 15 (which Randall Gay returned for a N.E. touchdown), or throwing an interception on the Patriot 5 yard line with momentum on the line, the Browns did everything they could to shoot themselves in the foot on Sunday. Although the team may be young and is expected to make mistakes, it is continued mishaps like this that may make Romeo Crennel unemployed come January.

Thank you all again for reading! Hope you all will check in next week for week six edition of “O.T’s”!

Matt's Stats: Week 5 NFL Preview

It's amazing how fast the NFL Season goes. We are already a quarter of the way through, and moving along as quickly as a Devin Hester kick return. So, with no further ado, I bring you my week 5 picks.

While you are here, also make sure to visit Dave's Slap Shots (just below) for some early season pointers on hockey, and Jeremy's Spoken (below that) for more football advice from a trained statistician.

"Sleep"ing on the Job:

1) Selvin Young (RB, Denver Broncos) - PICK YOUNG UP IMMEDIATELY!!!! Personally I feel that Young should have been drafted in all leagues, but somehow he is only owned in 46 % of CBS leagues. It was just reported on Fox 31 in Denver that Travis Henry is about to be suspended for the season due to failing a drug test. Young totalled 8 rushes for 81 yards in backup duty last week and as the new starter, he is guaranteed to become a top RB!

2) Sidney Rice (WR, Minnesota Vikings) - The 2nd round draft pick out of South Carolina is getting more and more playing time. Rice had his best game of the season last week totalling 6 Catches, 75 Yards, and 1 TD. The Vikings have been very weak at WR and will need Rice to produce more and more as the season progresses. Rice is currently owned in only 7 percent of CBS leagues and could be a great pick up to help get your team to the playoffs.

3) Donald Lee (TE, Green Bay Packers) - Brett Favre has always liked using his Tight End in the passing game, dating all the way back to the Mark Chmura years. This year has been no different and Lee has totalled 4 Receptions in every week of the season, totalling 172 Yards and 1 TD. Lee is only owned in 33 percent of leagues and should be an excellent backup TE and bye week replacement when needed.

"Play" or "Stay Away"

QB - Play Jason Campbell (WR, Washington Redskins) this week against the Detroit Lions. While I am normally not a fan of Campbell (627 Yards, 2 TD, 3 INT), and he may not have Santana Moss this week, this is probably the best start for Campbell so far this year. The Lions may be improved this year overall but their pass defense certainly is not (Tied for 30th in the League). The Redskins have plenty of other weapons (including newly signed Keenan McCardell) so expect Campbell to have one of his best games of the season.

Stay away from Chad Pennington (QB, New York Jets). Pennington is often used as a bye week replacement in many leagues, but it is not recommended for this week. The Jets have a bad offensive line and as evidenced by the first half of the preseason game between the two teams, the Jets will not be able to stop the Giants' defensive line from blitzing. Expect the Giants defense to keep improving and for Pennington to have a rough game.

RB - Play Edgerrin James (RB, Arizona Cardinals). Edge is going against a depleted Rams team who is currently ranked 29th in the league against the Rush. The cards may be confused over who to start at QB, but they have no questions at RB....expect a big game from James this week.

Stay away from Michael Pittman and Earnest Graham (RBs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers). A lot of owners will be tempted to start these two RB's right off the bat now that Cadillac's season is over, but I would suggest waiting at least a week. Nobody knows how the carries will be broken down yet between these two (the 2nd half of last week suggests a pretty even split), and they are against the Colts, who have the 3rd best defense against the run in the NFL this year. Pittman and Graham should be valuable Fantasy RBs this season, but not yet.

WR - Play Dwayne Bowe (WR, Kansas City Chiefs). The Chiefs some how have won 2 in a row and are tied for first in the AFC West. Bowe currently has 299 Yards receiving and 3 TDs for the season. He has scored a TD in 3 consecutive games and has increased his receiving yards in every game of his career. The Jags will be busy trying to stop the rushing game and will be content to let the Chiefs passing beat them. Take advantage and start Bowe this week.

Stay away from Vincent Jackson (WR, San Diego Chargers). Expected by some (including myself) to have a break out year, Jackson has had a very average start at best so far. Going against the #1 rated defense against the pass in the Denver Broncos (led by Champ Bailey and Dre Bly) the Chargers are going to continue wishing for Martyball to return and will not do much on Sunday.

Survival of the Fittest:

It was a funny week with my survival pick. While I had my best week of the year in the pickem pool I do each year (11-3 against the Spread), I had my first loss of the year for a survival pick to move my record to 3-1 on the year. The Professor has been giving me ear since Monday for turning down his two winning predictions in favor of my own failed choice, and he has threatened replacing me in favor of himself. I guess, it's time for redemption.

Getting back to my winning ways in week 5, I'm gonna do what some suggested I should have done last week and go against the Rams. Look for the Arizona Cardinals to win easily this week over the Rams. Gus Frerotte hasn't been the same since he ran into a brick wall in the 7-7 tie to the Giants back in '97. The duo of QBs will keep clicking and it all equals to a Cardinals win and a rare winning record for Arizona on the season.

(Note for all Readers: The Professor, 4-0 in both of his survivor pools, has opted for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts in his two pools this week. If either of those teams lose, he promises to lay off Matt from Stats.)

Have a Great Week 5!

________________________________________________________


Matt Cohen is a Senior Deputy Justice at SportsJudge.com. His column, Matt's Stats appears on Fridays at SportsJudge Blog.

Slap Shots: A Ranking of Fantasy Hockey Goalies

With the NHL 2007-08 season kicking off tonight, many fantasy hockey owners are still trying to figure out who to play in net. Rather than make you wait until some statistics flash on the scoreboard, here are a ranking of NHL goalies for the upcoming season from yours truly, the newest hockey columnist at SportsJudge.com.

Eastern Conference

(1) Martin Brodeur, NJD – everyone says that this is the year that the machine known as the Devils doesn’t win the division, but I have always been one to say that the one consistent thing throughout the decade plus of Devils’ excellence is the play of Martin Brodeur, they will find enough scoring to be in every game.

(2) Tomas Vokoun, FLA – A big addition to one of the best young teams in the league, who couldn’t come to an agreement the previous season with Roberto Luongo, who is one of the best in the league. Vokoun makes the Panthers a dangerous team every night. With him, I can see the Panthers making a run at a playoff spot this season.

(3) Ryan Miller, BUF – Miller bumped veteran Sabre goalie Marty Biron to the Flyers, and will have to be good consistently for Buffalo to be a repeat division champ after losing Chris Drury. He has a very good, mobile defense in front of him, and is consistent night after night,

(4) Henrik Lundqvist, NYR – His play in the second half of last season was the reason why the Rangers made a run to the second round, and almost the conference finals last season. He is definitely a player to watch, and can be streaky, played 3 preseason games and gave up 10 in 2, and then gave up 1 in the other. He doesn’t have the best defense in front of him, and that sometimes will come up and beat him.

(5) Martin Biron , PHI – A key acquisition at the trade deadline, he is going to be key in the resurgence of the Flyers. A good mix on D in front of him will limit opposing shots against.

(6) Rick DiPietro, NYI – One of the best puck handling goalies in the league, he can be worth the price of admission himself. Every year he gets better and better, and will again be the X factor for the overall success of the Islanders this season. Might not play in as many games this season due to emergence of Wade Dubielewicz as a very solid backup. Also one of the best in the league along with Lundqvist in a shootout situations. (Professor's Note: Unfortunately, DiPietro is not trying to prove his value for the free-agent market, as he's under contract with the "Fishstix" for 14 more seasons.)

(7) Olaf Kolzig, WAS – A veteran presence who has a much improved team in front of him this season, and seems to be re-energized with the promising youth in the organization. Is capable of stealing games by himself

(8) Marc Andre Fleury, PIT – One of the young stars on a team loaded with them, the reason he is ranked in the lower half is he has the tendency to give up too many rebounds. The addition of Darryl Sydor on D should help.

(9) Cam Ward, CAR- Inconsistent last season to say the least, will he revert to the Conn Smythe winning level or was that a flash in the pan?

(10) Johan Holmqvist, TB – A soild goalie but on a team that plays such a high risk game, and with the emergence of Karri Ramo, might not play the bulk of the games

(11) Vesa Toskala, TOR – The next in line of experiments in goal for the Maple Leafs, might be the answer, the Sharks and legendary US goalie coach Warren Strelow know how to develop quality goalies. The question – can he handle the media circus of playing in TOR?

(12) Cristobal Huet, MON – Went from MVP candidate one year to inconsistency the next, same situation as Ward there, and has a hotshot young goalie in Carey Price behind him – I designate him as a player to watch.

(13) Ray Emery, OTT – Had a solid season, but an awful Cup finals, will the fans in Ottawa forgive him, or will one bad game here lead to lots of inconsistency? With the defense he has, he doesn’t see many shots, needs to work on focus.

(14) Kari Lehtonen, ATL – He is capable of great stretches, but so far lacks the consistency to be a number 1. Was benched in the playoffs for career backup Johan Hedberg, on a short leash.
(15) Manny Fernandez, BOS – Will more than likely split time with Tim Thomas in goal, neither one is a super goalie, and gets exposed by extended playing time. Also has a young, inexperienced defense in front of him besides Chara.

Western Conference

(1) Roberto Luongo, VAN – The main reason why Vancouver went as far as they did last season, and will need to be as good this year. Is capable of the spectacular.

(2) JS Giguere, ANA- Had a very solid Cup and Playoffs and would more that likely had won the Conn Smythe if not for Scott Niedermayer. Will be key again for the Ducks as they look to defend.

(3) Marty Turco, DAL – Playoff failure after playoff failure he keeps stacking up numbers in the regular season. One of the best shootout men too.

(4) Miika Kiprusoff, CGY – Capable of taking that team deep into the playoffs without much offense when healthy

(5) Evgeny Nabokov, SJS – Finally the Man this season after the trade of Toskala to TOR. Has a team that is favored to possibly to win the Cup this season in front of him

(6) Niklas Backstrom, MIN – Doesn’t see many shots and stops the overwhelming majority of the shots he does see in the Minnesota style of play with Jacques Lemaire as coach.

(7) Jose Theodore, COL - Seems to be rejuvenated this season after hitting rock bottom in his career, if not, Peter Budaj will see the majority of action. Having Scott Hannan on D will help a lot.

(8) Dominik Hasek, DET – Not the Dominator as he once was, still very good, a risk at age 43. (Professor's Note: When the SportsJudge HMO launches next week, our team of doctors will analyze the likelihood of a 43-year old goalie staying injury free).

(9) Chris Mason, NAS – First season as the starter, his emergence forced management to trade Vokoun

(10) Curtis Joseph, PHX – Best player on a real young team with some young guns to watch.

(11) Jonathan Bernier, LA – 19 year old rookie made team with great camp, looked like the real deal in season opener in London.

(12) Dwayne Roloson, EDM – Career backup in second season as starter on bad team.

(13) Nikolai Khabibulin, CHI – Hasn’t been healthy the past few years and when healthy, hasn’t regained the Cup winning form from 2004.

(14) Pascal Leclaire, CLB – Stay away. I can provide analysis here, but sometimes you just have to trust me!

(15) Manny Legace, STL – Inconsistency personified, not a recommendation

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Dave Horowitz is a Fantasy Hockey Expert at SportsJudge.com. His column, Dave's Slap Shots, will appear throughout the NHL season at SportsJudge Blog.

Jeremy’s Spoken: Right on Target, Part 2

Last week we presented a case for using targets to help identify under-the-radar tight ends. Jeff King, Mercedes Lewis, and both of the Green Bay tight ends were noted as players to take a look at while Ben Watson, Chris Cooley, and Heath Miller are players for whom you might want to slightly lower your expectations for the future.

Today, we’ll take a look at targets data for wide receivers in the hope of uncovering similar diamonds in the rough. Again, the fantasy points are based on a standard scoring system. (6 points for a TD, 1 for 10 yards receiving, and -3 for a fumble. No points are added for receptions).

Top 25 Wide Receivers by Targets

Player	Targets per Game	Targets	Receptions
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. WR CIN	15	58	39
Mason, Derrick WR BAL	13	50	33
Johnson, Chad WR CIN	12	48	28
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI	11	45	26
Chambers, Chris WR MIA	11	44	23
Driver, Donald WR GB	10	41	27
Berrian, Bernard WR CHI	10	41	24
Williams, Roy WR DET	10	40	26
Owens, Terrell WR DAL	10	38	19
Smith, Steve WR CAR	9	37	21
Cotchery, Jerricho WR NYJ	9	36	26
Moss, Randy WR NE	9	34	31
Burress, Plaxico WR NYG	9	34	19
Curtis, Kevin WR PHI	9	34	19
Coles, Laveranues WR NYJ	9	34	24
Colston, Marques WR NO	9	26	18
Edwards, Braylon WR CLE	8	33	18
Marshall, Brandon WR DEN	8	33	20
Branch, Deion WR SEA	8	33	20
Holt, Torry WR STL	8	33	23
Boldin, Anquan WR ARI	8	32	22
Wayne, Reggie WR IND	8	31	21
McDonald, Shaun WR DET	8	31	21
Jackson, Darrell WR SF	8	31	14
Welker, Wes WR NE	8	30	23

The Bengals boast 2 of the top 3 targeted wide receivers in the NFL. That itself is not surprising. What may surprise some people, however, is the fact that TJ Houshmandzadeh has been targeted more than superstar Chad Johnson. This is a change from 2006 when Johnson (152) was targeted more than Houshmandzadeh (132). But TJ has become Carson Palmer’s security blanket. Although he’s only averaging 9.2 yards per catch, TJ is on pace for an astounding 156 catches on 232 targets which would set an NFL record.

Shying away from all Chicago offensive players after their horrible start to the season? It’s time to consider trading for Bernard Berrian. He’s been targeted 10 times per game, the same amount as Donald Driver and Roy Williams and more than Terrell Owens and Steve Smith. Not only that, but he’s caught nearly 60% of passes thrown his way. And he’s done this with the 2^nd coming of Ryan Leaf throwing him the ball. Berrian is on pace for 96 catches and 1280 yards. Imagine what he’ll do if Chicago ever gets their running game and offensive line problems figured out.

Pop quiz: Which of these numbers is not like the other: 2, 4, 11, 2? Those are the number of catches that Kevin Curtis has had during each of the 1^st 4 weeks this year. Clearly, his huge week 3 looks like an aberration. Take note, however, that these are the number of times he has been targeted in each of those week: 5, 11, 14, 4. Keep in mind that Donovan McNabb had no time to throw to anyone without all-pros Tra Thomas and Brian Westbrook during the Eagles week 4 loss to the Giants. Stay away while those guys are injured but expect Curtis’ numbers to pick up when they are healthy again.

Laveranues Coles is the Jets’ #1 receiver, right? Not according to how often he is targeted by his quarterback. Jericho Cotchery is following up on his breakout 2006 in a big way. He has been targeted 36 times this season compared to Coles’ 34. He is on pace for 104 receptions on 144 targets and more than 1500 yards. Coles has caught 4 TDs to Cotchery’s 0 but Jericho has been the big play guy in the Jets offense, averaging nearly 15 yards per catch. His huge week 2 game (7 receptions, 165 yards) with Kellen Clemens at the helm gives reason to think he could be even better if the Jets make a permanent change.

Finally, for those in deep leagues, here is a lesser-known player that should be available in your league and who just missed the top 25. Bobby Wade is owned in only 5% of CBS Sportsline leagues yet he’s averaging 6 targets per game and is on pace for 100 targets and 60 catches. Sure, his QB situation is terrible. But if you’re in a deep league and in need of a bye-week replacement, he’s not a bad option.

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Jeremy Mittler, M.B.A., is a Strategy and Statistical Expert at SportsJudge.com. His column, Jeremy's Spoken, appears on Thursdays at SportsJudge Blog.