Matt's Stats: Week 4 NFL Preview

While my baseball team is struggling to hang on (LET'S GO METS!!!!!), my fantasy teams are on a role! With Week 4 comes a key part of the season where many teams are decimated by injuries and many unknowns begin to make a name for themselves. Now for some players that should help this week:

"Sleep"ing on the Job:

1) Kenny Watson (RB, Cincinnati Bengals): Rudi Johnson is officially out this week due to his hamstring injury and that makes Kenny Watson, currently owned in only 39 percent of all CBS leagues, a player worthy of an immediate pickup. Watson so far this season has 9 carries for 60 yards and 1 TD as a backup. When starting for the explosive Bengals offense, these stats are sure to increase.

2) Roddy White (WR, Atlanta Falcons): After 2 years of disappointment White is finally starting to put up some big numbers. After back to back big games (Week 2: 4 Catches, 81 Yards and Week 3: 7 Catches, 127 Yards, 1 TD), White appears quickly to becoming a favorite target of Joey Harrington. The more experience these two play with each other, the better White's stats should be.

"Play" or "Stay Away"

QB - Play Brett Favre (QB, Packers) this week. Might as well ride the old vet while he is hot. Favre combined for 632 yards with 2 TD and 2 INT in 2 games last year against Minnesota. Favre is comfortable playing in the Metrodome and is trying to set the TD record, you can be sure that he has a big game this Sunday.

Stay away from Derek Anderson (QB, Browns). Anderson followed his great 5 TD game with a so-so 248 Yard, 1 TD, 2 INT game against Oakland. Anderson must now play against the tough Baltimore Defense and it is highly recommended that you look elsewhere for a QB to start this week.

RB - Play Marshawn Lynch (RB, Bills) this week against the Jets. The Jets currently rank 20th in the league against the Run and historically always have had trouble with the Bills running game when McGahee was there. Lynch has been the lone bright spot this year for the Bills, totalling 228 yards and 4 TD. Combine that with the fact that Trent Edwards will be in his first career start, and it should equal a lot of rushing for Lynch in Week 4.

Stay away from Warrick Dunn (RB, Falcons). Dunn is playing against a much improved Houston Texans team (currently ranked 6th against the rush) and will not have much room to run. Try to find someone better if possible to start over Warrick Dunn in Week 4.

WR - Play Darrell Jackson (WR, 49ers) in Week 4. Jackson has been waiting all season to get his first TD with his new team, and there is no better time then this week against his old team, the Seattle Seahawks (ranked 29th in allowing receiving yards this season). Expect 80-100 yards and a TD for Jackson this week.

Stay away from any Vikings receivers. Tavaris Jackson may not be playing this week and this will weaken the already mediocre WR corps (when your RB leads in receiving yards you can't be that good) Stay away from the likes of Bobby Wade, Troy Williamson, and TE Visanthe Shiancoe. The Packers defense is on the rise and the Vikings slight chance of winning will only be based on the running of Adrian Peterson this week.

Survival of the Fittest:

After moving to 3-0 for the season, its time for my survival pick of the week. This week it is going to be the SD Chargers over the KC Chiefs. The Chargers can not possibly be this bad, can they? Here's thinking that maybe they can pull out the old powder blues and run away with the game to get their season back on track. (The Professor agrees the Chargers are a decent pick, but he much prefers the Cowboys and Colts).

Have a great week!
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Matt Cohen is a Senior Deputy Justice at SportsJudge.com. His column, Matt's Stats appears on Fridays at SportsJudge Blog.

Jeremy's Spoken: Right on Target

I’m very liberal when it comes to fantasy sports. As you would expect from any liberal, I try to be an advocate for those in the minority. Today I’m going to discuss a minority in the world of fantasy football statistics: Targets.

A target is simply a pass that is intended for a specific player. Obviously, the more often a player is targeted, the more chances he has for a catch and the greater the opportunity for a big gain or a score. Although it was introduced a few years ago, it is only now beginning to be reported to the general football fan. Note, however, that because targets are recorded by different sources, the data can vary depending on the data source used. CBS Sportsline now reports targets in its standard stats database and is available for anyone whose league is managed by their League Manager service. As such, we’ll use their data for our discussion today. On to the data:

Correlation with Fantasy Points, Standard Scoring

Targets	Receptions	Yards	Average	TD
0.83	0.88	0.96	0.22	0.89

The table above shows the correlation between each of the statistics and total fantasy points. (The points are based on a standard scoring system with 6 points for a TD, 1 for 10 yards receiving, and -3 for a fumble. No points are added for receptions). While yards, touchdowns, and receptions are all more highly correlated with fantasy success, the number of targets is not far behind. At the very least, we can use targets to help us distinguish between otherwise similar players.

After 3 weeks of the season, we will use it to play the waiver wire, hoping to find lesser-known players that have become an important parts of their team’s offense.

Top 15 Tight Ends by Targets

Player	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Avg	TD	FL	FPTS
Gates, Antonio TE SD	33	27	297	11	2	0	51
Shockey, Jeremy TE NYG	28	15	180	12	0	0	23
Winslow, Kellen TE CLE	26	16	271	16.9	1	0	41
Witten, Jason TE DAL	21	14	233	16.6	2	0	42
Clark, Dallas TE IND	21	13	175	13.5	2	0	35
Gonzalez, Tony TE KC	21	16	167	10.4	0	0	20
Heap, Todd TE BAL	20	15	165	11	1	0	27
Johnson, Eric TE NO	20	16	98	6.1	0	0	12
King, Jeff TE CAR	18	13	130	10	1	0	22
Lee, Donald TE GB	16	12	106	8.8	1	0	18
Crumpler, Alge TE ATL	15	13	156	12	1	0	26
Franks, Bubba TE GB	15	7	42	6	2	0	16
Daniels, Owen TE HOU	15	13	128	9.8	0	1	12
Davis, Vernon TE SF	15	8	83	10.4	0	0	10
Lewis, Marcedes TE JAC	14	9	118	13.1	0	0	14

Of course some of the usual suspects are on here—Antonio Gates leads all tight ends in targets, as you would expect. Jeremy Shockey, Kellen Winslow, Jason Witten, and Dallas Clark round out the top 5, none of whom are surprises.

But there are a few intriguing names on here. Add me to the Jeff King bandwagon. King is being targeted 6 times per game. To put that in perspective, it is the same number of targets as Hines Ward, Vincent Jackson, and Calvin Johnson and more than Joey Galloway, Santonio Holmes, and Reggie Brown. King is a borderline starter and a definite one during bye weeks. With Steve Smith stretching defenses and drawing double coverage, King is a prime target over the middle of the field.

Brett Favre has shown a propensity to throw to its tight ends early in the season. Both Donald Lee and Bubba Franks make the top 15 list. If one of them were to get hurt, it wouldn’t be a far reach to see the other pick up some targets and become a starting caliber fantasy tight end, especially given the success of Green Bay’s passing attack.

Finally, Mercedes Lewis has the talent to be a top tier tight end. Monitor his progress—one or two more targets per game could move him up to starter status and primed for a breakout at the end of 2007 or in 2008.

Noticeably absent from this list (number of targets in parentheses) are Chris Cooley (13), Heath Miller (12), and Ben Watson (10). Obviously, keep them in your lineup unless you have a better option. But temper your expectations for their performance until they become a larger part of their team’s passing offense.

Next week we’ll take a look at targets data for wide receivers. Stay tuned.

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Jeremy Mittler, M.B.A., is a Strategy and Statistical Expert at SportsJudge.com. His column, Jeremy's Spoken, appears on Thursdays at SportsJudge Blog.

O'Malley's Tallies: Week 3 -- Hump Week, Favre's Fountain of Youth, and Ronnie Brown's Coming-Out Party

While the NFL season may consist of a 16 game schedule, week 3 in the National Football League says a lot about the direction a particular team or individual may be heading for the year. With such a short season, a 0-3 start almost always means shattered playoff hopes right from the get go.

Despite those numerous bandwagon fans that like to jump on the coat tails of a 3-0 team, most committed NFL fans truly can start to see the writing on the wall by the end of week 3. For instance, if I were to have asked 100 people at the beginning of the year who would of thought the Packers would be 3-0 after starting off the season with three playoff teams from the year before, I have a strong feeling 90% of the participants would have thought I was nuts. In spite of all this, the Pack continued their impressive start by beating one of the country’s most likely Super Bowl favorites, the San Diego Chargers. On the flip side, what is with the Buffalo Bills? After an off-season of major improvements on both sides of the ball, the Bills are 0-3 including the past two games in which they were walloped by the Steelers and Patriots. On that note, let’s get to the Studs and Duds of Week 3 ...

STUDS

1. Ronnie Brown – Well Ronnie, I think you quieted all the haters (including myself at times) for at least one week. Brown’s performance vs. the Jets on Sunday was undoubtedly his best of his short career, rushing for 112 yards and 99 receiving yards to go along with 3 touchdowns. While the Fish were indeed defeated by the Jets 31-28, the play of Brown and the offensive line was a very pleasant surprise for owners all around the country.

2. Brett Favre – In the twilight in his Hall of Fame caliber career, Mr. Favre has the Packers on top on the NFC North standings at 3-0. Going up against one of the top defenses in the league Sunday, all Favre did was throw for a whopping 369 yards and three touchdowns, including his 420th of his career which ties him with my favorite player of all time, Dan Marino, for most in league history. Not too shabby for a man that many have said has nothing left in the tank.

3. Philadelphia Eagles Offense – Whether it was Kevin Curtis receiving for 200+ yards. Donovan McNabb throwing for 381 yards and 4 scores, or Brian Westbrook having both 110 rushing and receiving yards, everything seemed to go right on Sunday for the previously struggling Philadelphia Eagles. The offense dropped a eye opening 56 points on the previously undefeated Detroit Lions and have seemed to find their stride as they head into their week 4 matchup against hated division rival New York Giants.

4. Marion Barber – Coach Phillips can continue to say it all he wants. Julius Jones and Marion Barber will continue to split carries for our team. I don’t want to hear it. The more and more MBIII runs, the better he gets. That trend continued Sunday night against the vaunted Chicago Bear defense in which Barber ran for 102 yards on the ground and had two touchdowns. This hard nosed former Golden Gopher is a bruiser and will most likely continue to punish defenders well on into deep January.

DUDS

1. Rex Grossman – Congratulations Rex!! You have officially made to the “O’Malley’s Tallies” dud list two out of a possible three weeks. Just when some people start thinking its safe to believe in you, you go out and complete 46.9% of your passes and throw 3 interceptions without a touchdown pass in a blowout loss to the Cowboys. While there may be no guarantee that continued performances like this will keep landing you on the list, it will however land you on a spot on the sidelines watching Brian Griese very, very soon.

2. Marc Bulger – There are few teams more difficult to understand in the Not For Long league than the St. Louis Rams. Picked by some in the beginning of the year to contend for the NFC crown, the Rams have lost their last two games and have been very sloppy doing it. On Sunday, Marc Bulger had a dreadful game against the Bucs, throwing for only 116 yards and tossing three picks as well in a 24-3 defeat. Although his starting job is 100% safe, a playoff birth come late December is far from it with sub par games like this from their quarterback.

3. Alex Smith – While it may be tough to kill the 49er’s quarterback after leading his team to a 2-1 record so far, his performance on Sunday and frankly throughout the entire three games has been very poor. For the season, the former #1 overall pick is completing 54% percent of his passes, averaging only 153.7 yards a game, and has a QB rating of a dismal 67.4. Despite having one of the most talented and youngest defenses in the entire game, if the 49ers want to continue their winning ways they are going to have to have some improved play from #11 ASAP.

4. Miami Dolphins Defense – If you would have told me the Miami Dolphins would have a career day from Ronnie Brown, an offensive line that mauled the Jets defensive line all day, and a 300 yard game from Trent Green on Sunday, I would have expected a Miami rout. WRONG. The Dolphin defense apparently didn’t get the memo, only recording one sack on the day and not forcing one fumble of interception all day against a bang up Chad Pennington. With stars like Jason Taylor, Joey Porter, and Keith Traylor manning that front seven, performances such as that are simply unacceptable.

That is all for this week! Thank you for reading and I will speak to you after week 4 for another edition of O.T’s!!
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John O'Malley is a Fantasy Football Expert at SportsJudge.com. His column, O'Malley's Tallies, appears on Tuesdays at SportsJudge Blog.

Matt's Stats: Week 3 NFL Preview

While some at ESPN had you benching Braylon Edwards (146 Yards, 2 TD) and starting the Bengals defense (51 Points scored against), my week 2 advice at SportsJudge.com did nothing of the sort. Instead, I advised you to pick up the sleeper from the Green Bay Packers, James Jones (Started, 4 Catches, 75 Yards), and the defensive stud from the San Francisco 49ers, Patrick Willis (5 Tackles, 3 Assisted Tackles). So while the Professor considers "talented" an even more dirty word than ever, I am back with more helpful recommendations based on research and reasons.

"Sleepers" on the Job:

1) Roydell Williams (Tennessee Titans, WR) - Williams has had a subpar career at best, but that doesn't mean that he can't become a dependable WR this year for your fantasy team. Currently owned in only 13% of CBS leagues, Williams is coming off a 4 Reception, 72 Yard, 1 TD performance in Week 2 against an improving Colts defense. Vince Young has been looking for a dependable WR that he can count on, and perhaps Williams will be that WR who shows up and answers the call. Williams is a sleeper by every definition of the word, but one that could become a #1 WR for the Titans this year and a very good #2 or 3 WR for your fantasy team.

2) Chris Cooley (Washington Redskins, TE) - Cooley is not a true sleeper in the normal use of the term. He is owned by over 3/4 of CBS leagues and has been pretty consistent since entering the league in 2004. So far Cooley has totaled only 35 Yards and 1 TD, but that is sure to increase this week playing against the Giants. As a Giants fan, I'll admit it...the Giants secondary this year is one of the worst in the NFL, especially when trying to stop tight ends. This was witnessed in Week 1 with TE Jason Witten totalling 116 Yards with 1 TD and with TE Bubba Franks doing his best 2002 impersonation with 4 catches for 20 Yards and a TD while his teammate TE David Lee was able to total 4 catches for 35 Yards and a TD. This is a total of 171 Yards receiving and 3 TD in only 2 weeks from TEs playing against the Giants. Until Kiwanuka learns how to play LB or Kawika Mitchell adjusts to his new team, this is sure to continue. As a result, make sure to start Chris Cooley this week if you have him, and make sure to pick him up if he is available. Cooley is sure to come up with big points in Week 3.

3) Jacoby Jones (Houston Texans, WR) - While he was previously listed on my season predictions as a great sleeper, now is an excellent time to pick him up. Jones is only owned by 30% of CBS leagues, and in Week 3 will begin to see his playing time increase. Andre Johnson is injured and there are a lot of extra passes to go around. Pick up Jones before it is too late.

"Play" or "Stay Away"

1) At QB this week Play Derek Anderson of the Cleveland Browns. While you should never get too excited from just one week, Anderson should come up big again in Week 3. Now one would have to be crazy to think he could copy his Week 2 stats of 328 Yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, but the Oakland Defense is ranked 28th in the league this year and a 250 Yard, 2 TD performance is a strong possibility. This may be one of the final weeks that Anderson will have a good matchup, so it is best to take advantage while you can.

Stay Away from Tony Romo this week. Romo has played against 29th ranked defense (Giants) and the 25th ranked defense (Dolphins). While Romo had a great game in Week 1 against the Giants (345 Yards, 4 TD, 1 INT), and had a decent game in Week 2 (186 Yards, 2 TD, 0 INT), he will run into trouble against the 5th ranked defense of the Chicago Bears. While he could get a TD or 2, expect a few INTs to be thrown by Romo this week.

2) At running back, play Laurence Maroney this week. Maroney has been waiting to break out all year and is against the worst rush defense he has seen (The Bills are currently ranked 30th against the run with 177.5 Yards per game given up). The Professor also suggests playing Thomas Jones, who despite his slow start is going up against the putrid Dolphins defense, as mentioned above.

Stay Away from Marshawn Lynch. While he has had a very good start to his career (154 Rushing Yards, 1 TD), he will be on the road against the Patriots defense (currently ranked 1 against the Run with only 56 yards per game given up). Find another option at RB if you can this week, and save Lynch for Week 4 when he returns home against the Jets.

3) Play Santana Moss this week at WR. While, he has not put up great stats this season he is due to break out and is against the perfect secondary (Giants) to do it. Moss came close on a few big passes from Campbell last week on MNF and you should expect them to improve and connect on at least 1 TD this week.

Stay away from Darrell Jackson this week. San Francisco is off to a great 2-0 start but have a very tough game at Pittsburgh in Week 3. Pittsburgh's defense should be too much for the inexperienced Alex Smith, and as a result it'll be at least one more game until Smith and Jackson connect for their first TD.

Survival of the Fittest:

While many were ousted by the Browns last week, Jacksonville's win carried me to a 2-0 record for the season. This week's pick is the Pittsburgh Steelers at home over the San Francisco 49ers. Both teams are 2-0, so some may feel this pick to be a bit risky but a home game against an out of conference team is usually a safe bet. Combine that with the fact that the AFC has been much better than the NFC this year in H2H games and the fact that Alex Smith should have trouble with a veteran Steelers defense, and it all equals a wake up call for the 49ers and a pretty easy win for the Steelers. (For week 3 in a row, the Professor is making a different choice, opting for the New England Patriots).

Final Thoughts:

I have a good feeling about this week...maybe even the "defenseless" Giants can finally pull off the miracle and get a win! Enjoy Week 3!!! And remember, while the boys from Bristol might have a pretty website, SportsJudge.com never suggested the Bengals "D" for week 2.

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Matt Cohen is a Senior Deputy Justice at SportsJudge.com. His column, Matt's Stats appears on Fridays at SportsJudge Blog.

Miranda Warnings: The Fantasy Baseball Weekly Dose (FBWD)

Welcome back, baseball fans. It's Michael Miranda, your loyal fantasy baseball expert. Here’s the latest “dose”. Let’s get it on…

American League Update:

The “Butler” did it: Heading into 2007, Kansas City wanted to keep Billy Butler in the minors for another year of defensive seasoning (offensively, he’s been ready since spring training). But, sometimes the hands of fate (in this case, Mike Sweeney’s knee injury) have a way of changing a teams intentions. Sweeney injured his right knee in mid-June, resulting in surgery. Consequently, Butler has received regular AB’s and hasn’t disappointed, hitting .294 with 7 hr’s and 49 rbi in only 299 AB’s! KC is currently giving Butler a trial at 1B. The organization hopes that his defense doesn’t prove to be a liability. If Butler can’t hack it at 1B, he can DH regularly. Butler hasn’t had any extended hitting funks, impressive for a rookie, and will be a mainstay in KC’s lineup for years to come. His power will come as he matures and KC’s lineup improves. 25 homer, 100 rbi seasons will become the norm for Butler sooner, rather than later. He’s a great mid-round pickup for your fantasy team on Draft Day 2008.

Pettitte still has it: Despite an achy elbow that has bothered him since late 2006, Andy Pettitte has put together quite an impressive 2007 (14-8, with a 3.79 ERA). Mariano Rivera was shaky Tuesday versus Baltimore, but was able to seal a 2-1 Yankee win and in the process saved Pettitte’s 200th career victory. Pettitte leads the Majors with 10 second-half wins. As Pettitte approaches 40, he’s worth having on your fantasy team if (and this is a BIG IF) he returns to the Yanks in 2008. Pettitte has a $16 million player option for 2008.

“Defense, Defense”: Don’t believe those who say that defense means nothing in fantasy baseball. A perfect example is Chicago’s Josh Fields. Fields has put together an impressive 2007 rookie campaign (20 hr’s, 63 rbi in only 344 AB’s), but he’s been shaky defensively at third base and left field. Additionally, White Sox Manager Ozzie Guillen has made it clear that unless Fields’ defense improves, he won’t see regular AB’s in 2008. “It is not automatic that he will be there next year," Guillen told mlb.com. Fields offensive potential is impressive, but as a fantasy GM this means nothing to you if Fields doesn’t receive regular playing time. Approach with caution.

BJ Ryan who?: Entering 2007, BJ Ryan was not only Toronto’s closer, but one of the most dominant relievers in all of baseball. Elbow-ligament replacement surgery has Ryan out until mid-2008. In the interim, Jeremy Accardo hasn’t dominated, but has been very successful, racking up 28 saves, a 2.32 ERA and a tiny 1.177 WHIP. If Accardo carries his 2007 success into 2008, you have to think that Toronto will stick with him as their closer even after Ryan returns. It’ll be interesting to see how this situation plays out.

Vlad’s “Tri”ing to play RF: Vlad triceps inflammation continues to limit him to DH duties. Guerrero’s offensive production remains solid, but he hasn’t played RF in over a week. Guerrero wants to play the field, but the Angels are being cautious with their superstar. Although antibiotics and an offseason of rest should solve the problem, this is definitely a situation worth monitoring.

Oh no, O’s!: In last weeks “Fantasy Baseball Weekly Dose”, I questioned how long Brian Roberts and Miguel Tejada would continue to tolerate the Orioles losing ways. The results are in and the numbers are ugly. Since late August, Roberts' average has plummeted from .314 to .290. Ouch! Fortunately for his fantasy GM’s, he does have four steals in the past six games. Tejada is 3 for his last 27! Double ouch! Both players are studs, but the losing in Baltimore is definitely taking its toll on them.

Déjà vu All Over Again?: The Red Sox are doing their best to repeat 1978’s infamous collapse, which saw them blow a 14 game AL East lead to the Yankees, then lose a one game playoff. The 2007 collapse is almost complete. After being swept in Toronto Wednesday, Boston’s once 14 ½ game lead over the Yanks has dwindled to 1 ½ games and all facets of their game have deteriorated recently. Of particular concern is the bullpen. Eric Gagne has been horrific since being acquired from Texas at the trading deadline, compiling a 9.00 ERA in 15 games. Hideki Okajima has been shut down for several days because of a tired arm and has been just as bad as Gagne lately. And the usually dependable Jonathan Papelbon has suddenly become undependable. Papelbon has given up 3 earned runs in his last 1 2/3 innings, including a grand slam to Russ Adams on Wednesday that broke open a close game.

National League Update:

Mikey Likes it: Speaking of collapses, on September 12th, the Mets led the Phillies by 7 games. That lead now stands at 2 ½ games after the Mets snapped a five game losing streak, beating Washington 8-4. Mike Pelfrey came up big with a solid, if not spectacular, effort (5 IP, 9H, 3 ER) and he did so with the Mets desperate for a victory. With the win, Pelfrey has turned his 2007 around in a major way. Once 0-7, Pelfrey is now 3-7 and showing signs of becoming a solid mid-rotation pitcher. Some pitchers take longer to develop than others, so don’t give up on Pelfrey just yet. He’s worth a flier in 2008.

If the shoe, err boot, fits… wear it: In more Met news, Newsday is reporting that Orlando Hernandez was diagnosed Monday with a bunion on his right foot and must wear a protective boot for 7 to 10 days. There’s even talk of shutting him down for the season. With Pedro Martinez back and Pelfrey showing signs of improvement, perhaps shutting down El Duque might be for the best. El Duque, one of the biggest clutch game performers in baseball history, would be sorely missed during the playoffs.

Pujols “disappointing” 2007 ends?: Mere mortals would salivate with a stat line of 31 homers, 95 rbi and a .321 average. But, when you’re Albert Pujols that stat line is disappointing. Injuries to the Cardinals and to Pujols himself have resulted in an “off” year for the slugger. Now, it appears he’ll be shut down for 2007 with a strained calf.

Mulder Done: Mark Mulder is done for 2007 and, perhaps, a lot longer. Mulder’s labrum has healed fully from 2006 surgery, but the same can’t be said about his rotator cuff. He’ll go under the knife soon and will likely miss most, if not all, of 2008.

Come on Chris: Unfortunately, Chris Burke is doing nothing to establish himself as a major leaguer. The only reason Burke will most likely enter 2008 as a starter (2b or CF) is because Craig Biggio is retiring and Jason Lane and Luke Scott have been as inept as Burke. Burke is young/talented, but he needs to do more than 6 homers, 9 stolen bases to make some noise.

Manuel Manager of the Year: There should be zero doubt that Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel is the NL Manager of the Year. Despite extended DL stints for several key players in 2007 (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Freddy Garcia and on, and on, and on…), the fightin’ Phils are in the thick of the NL playoff hunt as the 2007 season enters its final week. All Philly hitters should remain active in your fantasy lineups as the Phils play for their playoff lives, while playing their final six games in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

He’s “Werth” it: Jayson Werth has stepped in admirably as Shane Victorino’s (calf) replacement. In September, Werth has been solid, hitting .298 with 12 RBI. Heading into 2008, Werth figures to be a fourth outfielder behind Pat Burrell (LF), Aaron Rowand (CF) and Victorino (RF).

Same ‘ol Story: Ben Sheets is injured… again! Sheets was removed from Tuesday night's game in Houston because of tightness in his hamstring. Sheets is back in Milwaukee (while the Brewers are in Atlanta) for an MRI exam, which tells us that the Brewers feel this might be serious. Monitor the situation closely.

It’s a girl!: Roy Oswalt left the team this past Sunday to be with his wife, who gave birth to a baby girl on Tuesday. Oswalt hoped to make a start on Saturday in St. Louis. Instead, he'll start the final game of the series versus the Cardinals on Sunday.

Byrne(s), baby Byrne(s): Take note of what Arizona’s Eric Byrnes has done in 2007… a .290 avg., 21 hr’s, 82 rbi’s, 98 runs and 45 steals! Wow! Byrnes recently signed a three year extension and the young Diamondbacks figure to be competitive for years to come. Byrnes is in a good situation and should continue to put up solid numbers for several more seasons.

No “Holliday” for Matt: Matt Holliday has now put together back to back monster seasons. His 35 homers, 128 rbi’s, .340 batting average, 111 runs and 11 sb’s make him a 1st round pick heading into 2008 and a keeper in keeper leagues.

Bonds in 2008?: Barry Bonds has indicated several times during 2007 that he intends to return in 2008, But, for who? San Francisco desperately needs to rebuild and Bonds body no longer allows him to play regularly. The Giants need to start a youth movement ASAP and allow Bonds to move on, if anybody wants him.

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Michael Miranda is a fantasy baseball expert and Commissioner Emeritus of Madison League Baseball. "Miranda Warnings: The Fantasy Baseball Weekly Dose" appears on Thursdays at SportsJudge Blog.

Jeremy's Spoken: Avoiding Fantasy Panic After an 0-2 Start

If your fantasy football season even closely resembles the following scenario, read on: You’re 0-2. You drafted Larry Johnson in the 1st round, followed by Thomas Jones in the 2nd, Drew Brees in the 3rd, and Lee Evans in the 4th round. This was the core of your team that was supposed to bring you the championship. Uh oh.

You’re starting to panic. You know it. Everyone in your league can see it as well. That guy in your league that always seems to offer completely lopsided trades (and somehow succeeds in completing some of them) has offered you Warrick Dunn, Ben Roethlisberger, and some guy you’re never heard of named Matt Spaeth for Larry Johnson. He slyly points out that Spaeth is Big Ben’s “go-to guy” in the end zone. He has even scored 2 more touchdowns than LJ.

Here’s what you should do next: Nothing. And here’s why: it’s been only 2 games and your perception of reality is very much skewed by the events of the past 2 Sundays.

Because we have seasons in the NFL, our minds automatically try to “chunk” player performances together into seasons rather than thinking of performance as a continuous spectrum across a player’s career. Without any other games to influence our perception of this season’s performance, we automatically assume that these 2 games are indicative of what is to come during rest of the year. Yes, there are usually changes to each team during the off-season that impact our beliefs about each player’s performance for the upcoming season. But changes occur in-season as well, most often when significant injuries strike. Do you think Jason Campbell and Clinton Portis won’t struggle with the starting right side of the Redskins offensive line on injured reserve?

Think of the situation this way. What if one of your under-performing players had consecutive 2 game stinkers during the middle of the season? Would you rush to trade him then? Probably not. You’d be upset, of course. But most likely, you’d wait another week or two. After all, you reason, he’s “earned” the right to stay in your lineup after a great start to the season. What’s different about a similar 2 game streak now? Nothing at all.

Here’s a perfect example. Last year Larry Johnson had one of the most dominating seasons in fantasy football history with 17 touchdowns and nearly 1,800 yards rushing. Yet during weeks 4 and 5 last year, he put together games that looked like this:

• Week 4 vs. Arizona: 16 rushes, 36 yards, 2.3 ypc
  
• Week 5 vs. Pittsburgh: 15 rushes, 26 yards, 1.7 ypc, 1 T

In his next game, Johnson rushed 28 times for 132 yards, a 4.7 ypc average and 2 TD and not a stinker the rest of the year.

A general rule of thumb in fantasy football is to wait about 3-4 weeks before giving up on a highly ranked player. Of course, if you took a flier in a late round on Matt Jones, for example, don’t hesitate to cut him loose. But with players that are supposed to anchor your team, be patient this week and next. All you need is one win to change the perception of your team’s prospects for the season.

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This is the 1st edition of "Jeremy's Spoken" -- Jeremy Mittler's weekly column on strategies and statistical tools to help you gain an edge in your fantasy leagues. "Jeremy's Spoken" will appear on Thursdays at SportsJudge Blog.

Bang the Gavel: The Not So Talented Mr. Roto, and the than More Talented Ms. Bell

Last week, Matthew Berry (better known at ESPN as the "Talented Mr. Roto") advised fantasy owners to start the Cincinnati Bengals defense. The Browns then promptly scored a rousing 51 points on the Bengals "D" leading to a lot of bad will.

In his follow-up article, Mr. Berry acknowledged his misdeed. What followed, however, was the general laundry-list of excuses of generally follows a failed gamler, including Mr. Berry's own defense that he should be forgiven for his terrible pick -- and maybe even lauded -- because he, unlike others, was willing to take a risk. Simply preposterous!

ESPN.com is the largest fantasy sports site in the world, and Berry is ESPN's no. 1 featured "expert". Fantasy sports players rely on these so-called "experts" to provide accurate advice, much as how individual stock investors rely on the stock-picking advice of investment fund managers. This does not mean someone like Berry is expected to be correct 100% of the time. But an "expert" prognosticator's performance needs to be closer to the likes of Mr. Bill Miller -- the Legg Mason fund manager beat the market 15 consecutive years. When prognosticators cannot yield consistent accuracy, they should lose the pulpit to project.

Before I blast ESPN.com and its fantasy "expertise" too far, however, I also have to give the website kudos from hiring away from Rotowire.com a fantasy prognosticator that truly is talented: Board Certified Orthopedic Clinical Specialist and a Certified Strength and Conditioning Specialist Stephania Bell. Ms. Bell's work is a positive innovation over that of most fantasy "experts" because she focuses her writing on the estimated time for players to recover from injuries, and her expertise is based on real training in that subject area. The work of academic experts like Bell in the arena of fantasy sports is the kind of innovation that will allow our game to transcend its perception as quasi-gambling. Ideally, Bell's work would be supplemented on the major sites by others with similar expertise that tie comfortably to sport.

Where the major sites drop the ball is where I hope SportsJudge Blog to pick it up and run into the endzone. In coming weeks, we plan to launch regular columns from a staff of statisticians and medical doctors. It remains our steadfast belief that while sports reporters are best at writing post-week recaps, pre-game predictions should remain a job for those with a different set of expertise.

O'Malley's Tallies: Week 2 -- Parity Strikes Back

What is parity? American Heritage Dictionary describes "parity" as “equality, as in amount, status, or value.” However, to me, the NFL shield is a way better descriptor.

Each year -- just when NFL fans think they have a handle on the league's good, bad and ugly -- some of those teams that everybody took for ugly ducklings emerge as the league's newest swans. Take, for example, this season: the Houston Texans are now a dominant at 2-0. The San Francisco 49ers just beat back-to-back division rivals. And the Cleveland Browns -- yes, the same Browns left for dead just a week ago -- put up a rocketing 51 points against the seemingly hapless Cincinnati Bengals defense.

I know this topsy-turvy assessment comes well short of achieving any statistical significance just yet, but it still goes to show you that anything can happen in the Not For Long league. On that note, let us get into the Week 2 version of “O’Malley’s Tallies” studs and duds…

STUDS

1. Carson Palmer (QB Bengals) - After a very efficient week 1 outing against the Baltimore Ravens and their #1 ranked fantasy defense, it didn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that the former #1 overall pick could do so damage against a Browns secondary featuring Leigh Bodden and rookie Eric Wright (who?). Entrenched in a shootout from the opening quarter, Palmer went out and threw a mind boggling 6 touchdown passes and completed 33-50 passes to go along with 401 yards. Although the Bengals defense may not done their part in the 51-45 defeat, I am quite sure Carson Palmer fantasy owners are circling their calendars for when the quarterback gets to see this division foe again later in the season.

2. Jamal Lewis (RB, Browns) – If many of you are like myself, Jamal Lewis was one player I specifically looked to avoid at all my drafts this season. Whether it was recent injury woes, character issues, or the fact that he is quickly getting close to 30 years old, reasons were aplenty for me to not to draft the former Raven and Tennessee Volunteer. On Sunday afternoon, however, Lewis made me eat my words. Looking like the Jamal of old, Lewis carried the rock 28 times for 217 yards (7.7 average) and scored once to help shred the Bengals defense and lead the Browns to a much needed victory in the Dog Pound. Playing 2007 with just a one year contract, it will be consistent performances like this that earn Lewis that final long term deal that he is looking for before retirement.

3. Steve Smith (WR, Panthers)– Despite having some of the best talent in the league, the Carolina Panthers continue to be one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL. While one may never know what team will show up any given week, one thing is always certain: Steve Smith will produce. After already cracking the 100 yard plateau to go along with a touchdown in week 1, Smith went out and had an even better game week 2. His 8 catches, 153 yards, and 3 touchdowns in the team’s 34-21 defeat on Sunday gave fantasy owners a reason to smile and Carolina Panthers fans a reason to scratch their head once again.

4. Jerricho Cotchery (WR, Jets) – Between the fact that the Jets starting quarterback was out and the team was playing the Baltimore Ravens on their vaunted defense on the road, Jerricho Cotchery owners (like myself) had to feel very uneasy about their fantasy receiver’s week two matchup. In spite of all of this, Cotchery looked extremely efficient on the field Sunday, hooking up with Kellen Clemens for 7 catches and 165 yards on the day. With a performance like this, owners should feel very safe going forward that '06 was not a fluke and that the former N.C. State standout will continue to be a solid target for years to come.

DUDS

1. Trent Green (QB, Dolphins) – After seeing Giants quarterback Eli Manning shred the Dallas defense in week 1 for big play after big play, it was safe to say Sunday that the Dolphins and Trent Green would have some chances to do big things in their home opener. Even with Dallas starting cornerback Terrence Newman ruled out due to injury, Green looked awful in his first home performance as the Dolphins quarterback yesterday. The quarterback threw 4 interceptions, fumbled once, and nearly botched a clock stopping spike right before halftime in Miami’s 37-20 loss Sunday to Dallas.

2. LaDainian Tomlinson (RB, Chargers) – I know what you are all saying right now. “How could this guy put arguably the most talented football player on the planet on his duds list in just week two?” While I know many will argue that going against the New England defense on the road is not an easy feat, I personally do not want to hear it. L.T. was the overwhelming consensus #1 pick this year in fantasy drafts because he was a so called “can’t miss" stud. On Sunday night, however, Tomlinson carried the rock 18 times and gained only 43 yards, leaving his YPC at a meager 1.9. The road does not get much easier in week 3 as the Bolts head to Lambeau Field and go against A.J. Hawk and that new and improved Packers defense.

3. New York Giants Defense – I am going to make this one short and sweet. 45 points in week one. 35 points in week two. That is an average of 40 points a game against the New York football Giants this year. Correct me if I am wrong, but I don’t know too many teams that have won the Super Bowl giving up 40 points a game.

4. Lee Evans (WR, Bills) – After a breakout campaign in 2006 in which he caught 82 balls for 1292 and 8 touchdowns, the hype surrounding the Losman-to-Evans combo this year was sky high. After drafting a franchise running back in Marshawn Lynch and adding some essential pieces on the offensive line like Derrick Dockery, fantasy owners will drooling over the dreams of 1400 yards for the former Wisconsin star. After week 2, those expectations may have to be given a reality check. With only 4 catches for 22 yards and no scores in his first two games, one must really wonder what is going on Mr. Evans.

CLOSING STATEMENT

Well, there you have it -- the week 2 look around the league. On a side note, isn’t it great to see the recent news on Buffalo Bills tight end Kevin Everett? Originally given a very slim chance for total recovery, the fine doctors working with Everett now report some voluntary movement in his fingers and toes and report that there is a chance that with hard work and determination, he may indeed one day have a chance to walk again. In a society where the negative stories often take center stage, it is finally a sweet surprise to hear good news like this. Again, all the best to Mr. Everett and his family. Thank you all for reading, and I will see you next week!

Matt's Stats: Week 2 NFL Preview

After an exciting Week One, I asked the Professor what he thought of my work. He said, "Good start. While ESPN was touting Ronnie Brown (11 carries, 32 yds. in week 1), you led readers to Eli Manning (312 yards, 4 TD) and Andre Johnson (7 receptions, 142 yards). Indeed, you're more than 'talented'."

I cannot promise 100% perfection in my picks, but at least my statistical screen is outperforming the hyped Matt Berry. Anyway, here is what SportsJudge.com recommends in week no. 2:

"Sleep"ing on the Job:

After all the injuries that happened in Week 1, every owner is looking for that sleeper that could be on the waiver wire that will help your fantasy team. Here are two sleepers that should surprise and score some fantasy points in Week 2:

1) James Jones (Green Bay Packers, WR) - With Greg Jennings still out, James Jones will once again start at WR in Week 2. Jones may have not had the best stats in Week 1 (4 Catches for 29 Yards), but the third-rounder from San Jose State should be able to put up big numbers against the Giants defense, which last week showed to have more holes than Ben & Jerry's has ice cream favors. Jones is only owned in 24 percent of CBS leagues, so he should be an easy player to pick up as a free agent. I know the Professor just picked him up, and I have him sitting on my bench waiting to break out after using a late round draft pick on him.

2) Patrick Willis (San Francisco 49ers, LB) - For those of you in IDP leagues, the first rounder looked great on MNF this week with 9 solo tackles, 2 assisted tackles, a forced fumble, and a QB hurry. Willis is currently owned in 49 percent of CBS leagues, but I'm in a very deep 12-team league and he was still on the waiver wire yesterday when I picked him up, so act fast before another owner gets him. Willis is only going to improve. While playing against STL and Stephen Jackson this week, Willis is sure to get a lot of opportunities for tackles.

"Play" or "Stay Away"?

1) At QB this week, a good starter is the now healthy Ben Roethlisberger. After a year in which everything went wrong, Roethlisberger seemed revitalized in Week 2 throwing 4 TD's against the Browns. Roethlisberger is playing against a Bills Defense, which is usually good, but one cannot expect the Bills to be entirely focused on football after the serious injury sustained last week by teammate Kevin Everett. (The Professor also likes starting Brett Favre in wk. 2 given continued weakness in the Giants secondary).

Stay away from Daunte Culpepper. While many in deeper leagues may get excited by his name because of great seasons in Minnesota, Culpepper is set up to fail this week playing for Oakland in Denver's home opener. Denver very rarely loses its home opener!

2) At RB this week, play any of the Saints RBs. After barely doing anything last week against the Colts, look for Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister to bounce back in Week 2 against Tampa Bay. The Bucs defense gave up 139 rushing yards to Seattle in the opener and the Saints in need of a big early season win, should be able to rush up and down the field without any problem against the Bucs D.

Stay away from Thomas Jones. After a poor Week 1, in which he totalled only 42 yards on the ground, Jones has to play against the Ravens Defense. Rudi Johnson, accompanied by the explosive Bengals offense was only able to total 50 yards against the Ravens in Week 1, so imagine what the Ravens D will do when they only have to prepare for the rush.

3) For those of you in IDP leagues, play any of the Bears starters, especially Brian Urlacher, who should have Larry Johnson rushing towards him all day.

Stay away from players on the Minnesota defense. While they had a good Week 1 (ranking 12th in yards after only letting the Falcons put up 3 points on Sunday), the Vikings go against the Lions this week. The Lions and Mike Martz have a great offense and should be able to put up a lot of points against Minnesota this week.

Survival of the Fittest:

After a win in Week 1, the pick this week will have to be Jacksonville over Atlanta. Jacksonville had a very tough loss to the Titans in Week 1 and can not afford to lose to a bad team like the Falcons. Luckily for Bobby Petrino, the Michael Vick case should give him a free year because the Falcons are going to have a very long season. Look for Taylor and Jones-Drew to finally get going this week, and as a result the Jaguars should have no trouble beating Atlanta this week.

Once again, the Professor disagrees (figures!). He is taking Denver at home. The Professor gives Atlanta a 25% chance to bounce back this week based on some turmoil at the Jaguars QB position. I think he's being overly generous.

Final Thoughts

So, at least for the moment, I'm enjoying my new office nickname "The Way More Than Talented Matt of Stats." Lets see if people still are calling me that come week 3. I have a good feeling about this one.

Miranda Warnings: Fantasy Baseball Weekly Dose (FBWD)

Hello fantasy baseball fans! This is my debut fantasy baseball article for SportsJudge.com. I want to thank SportsJudge.com founder/creator Marc Edelman for this opportunity.

“Fantasy Baseball Weekly Dose” will be posted every Wednesday on SportsJudge.com. FBWD will highlight the latest significant (and sometimes not so significant) developments from the fantasy baseball world that could effect your fantasy baseball decision making.

Let’s get it on…

American League Update:

Trouble in Baltimore: You have to wonder how much longer Brian Roberts and Miguel Tejada will tolerate Baltimore’s losing ways. Both are studs, in a difficult situation. While Roberts has remained quiet about the direction the O’s are going in, the same can’t be said about Tejada. In 2006, Tejada demanded a trade, but then had a change of heart after discussions with family, friends and Baltimore management. Maybe he’ll demand a trade again? The O’s “upgraded” their bullpen this past winter, but it has blown numerous leads throughout 2007. The O’s closer, Chris Ray, won’t return until 2009 after Tommy John surgery. A few years ago, Daniel Cabrera (9-15, 5.11) was thought to be the future ace, but has shown no progress under pitching coach Leo Mazzone. Two pitching bright spots, Eric Bedard and Jeremy Guthrie, have been shut down for 2007 due to oblique injuries. The O’s are currently in a horrific slide that has seen them lose 17 of 20. After getting smoked 10-5 by the Angels on Tuesday, the O’s team ERA in the last 20 games stands near a ghastly 9!

Vlad's Return: Don’t worry about the inflamed triceps that forced Vlad Guerrero to miss a few games. He returned Tuesday night to the tune of two homers and four ribbies. By the way, the following stat should silence any/all doubt about Vlad being Hall of Fame material. The two homers versus the O’s give Vlad 24 in 2007. Vlad is well on the way to a 10th consecutive season of hitting at least 25 homers and batting .300 or higher. The only other player to accomplish that feat in more consecutive seasons (11), Lou Gehrig!

"Flash" Forward: Don’t you dare give up on KC third baseman Alex Gordon. While other 2007 rookie hitters (Ryan Braun, Hunter Pence, Troy Tulowitzki, etc.) have all had more success than Gordon, it’s Gordon who will soon be just as good, if not better than the 2007 rookie crop. Gordon’s low batting average (.258) and low RBI total (57) would lead you to believe that he’s having a disappointing 2007, but look beyond those numbers and you’ll see that he has very quietly put together a decent first season of double-digit homers and steals (14 -14), unheard of for third basemen not named David Wright. Also of note, Gordon has put together the double-digit homers and steals in a lineup that provides him with zero protection. Last, but not least, Gordon never played Triple AAA ball, going straight from Double AA Wichita to KC. Going from Double AA ball straight to the Major Leagues is an immense transition, let alone hitting in a woeful KC lineup. In redraft leagues, Gordon is a Top 10 third basemen. In keeper-leagues, his value is immense. View Gordon’s “disappointing” 2007 season as an adjustment year and look for a bounce-back 2008. You could see a 25-25 season from Gordon as early as 2009.

The Mets Loss is the Royals Gain: Speaking of KC, SP Brian Bannister (12-8, 3.46), who the Royals stole from the Mets in exchange for two minor league arms, has had a solid 2007. Keep him on your radar for 2008. As young hitters like Gordon step-up, Bannister's win totals should continue to rise.

Move Over Clemens and Mussina: A series of young arms in the Bronx should light up boxscores for fantasy GM's in 2008. Those who thought that Chien-Ming Wang’s 2006 season (19-6, 3.63) was a fluke, need to reassess his value. With a solid effort against KC this past Sunday, Wang is now 18-6, has won five straight decisions, is on pace for 20 wins and is the undeniable anchor of a Yankee pitching staff that has had a roller-coaster 2007. Wang gives up lots of hits and strikes out very few batters, but consecutive Cy Young type seasons can not be overlooked. Yankee GM Brian Cashman has deservedly received lots of criticism in recent years for acquiring the likes of Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, Randy Johnson, etc. However, Cashman’s intentions were well-founded. Cashman acquired those pitchers so that the Yankees could remain competitive, while the Yankee pitching staff of the future developed in the minor leagues. Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Joba Chamberlain have all shown their potential in 2007 and, along with Wang, could form a dynamite 1-4 pitching staff for years to come, giving Yankee fans (and fantasy GM’s) lots to look forward to for the foreseeable future.

Deep in the Cellar in Texas: The “window of opportunity” is closing for Texas’ Nelson Cruz and Jason Botts to establish themselves as major-league ready. Both have received long looks the last two seasons, but have disappointed. Despite being big-time prospects as recently as 2006, both seem to be no more than bench players. However, they are still both young enough to show improvement.

The Young and the Injured: Jeremy Bonderman (elbow) has been shut down for 2007… Francisco Liriano (Tommy John surgery) is scheduled to throw off a mound on November 1st. It’ll be the first time Liriano steps on a mound in over a year.

National League Update:

The "Wright" Stuff: Those chants of “MVP!, MVP!” that you hear coming from Shea Stadium are for third basemen David Wright. Wright should win the NL MVP. With a stat line of .316-28-95-98-31, he is well-deserving of NL MVP and nothing short of a fantasy stud!... Speaking of the Mets, shortstop Jose Reyes will also receive lots of NL MVP votes. Reyes is the first infielder ever to steal 60+ bases in three consecutive seasons!

Always Underrated: It seems that every year most sportswriters predict Travor Hoffman's decline, and every year they are wrong. Despite turning 40 soon, Hoffman is approaching his ninth 40 save season. As long as Hoffman continues to pitch in the friendly confines of Petco Park, he is worth a flier in '08.

Prince Becoming a King: Prince Fielder smacked his 44th homer Tuesday and is on pace for 50. The 44 homers are impressive in and of itself. But, Fielder’s power is more impressive when you consider the significant power outage throughout baseball (i.e. Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells, Andruw Jones, Derrek Lee, etc.).

Here Comes Votto: The Reds are finally giving first baseman Joey Votto a look. He’s been ready since June, but only recently got called up to the Reds. He’s much better than those he’s competing with for AB’s (Scott Hatteberg and Jorge Cantu). He will be the Reds starting first baseman in 2008, he hits in a lethal lineup and he hits in the bandbox called Great American Ball Park. He’s a rare combination of power/speed at first base. Don’t forget about Votto down the stretch in 2007 and/or in 2008.

St. Louis "Blues": It was recently announced that Cardinals third basemen Scott Rolen (shoulder) is done for 2007. He should be fully recovered by spring training. With the tragedy (Josh Hancock’s death), injuries (Chris Carpenter, Juan Encarnacion, Rolen, etc.) and controversy (Rick Ankiel purchasing HGH) that have beset the Cards, skipper Tony LaRussa deserves lots of credit for not only keeping this ship afloat, but in playoff contention. Even though the Cardinals are not likely to win the NL Central, kudos to LaRussa for a job well done, and look for St. Louis to right the ship next season.

Closing Statement:

I hope you enjoyed the first installment of FBWD. I will be back next week with the second edition.